2011 Milk Production Projected Higher, All-Milk Price Forecast Lower in USDA Estimates

In its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA also projected lower U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011-12.

Source: USDA-WASDE

USDA raised its forecast for 2011 U.S. milk production to 195.7 billion pounds, noting a more rapid-than-expected expansion in the size of the nation’s dairy herd.

In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released this morning, USDA also projected lower U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011-12, with reduced corn production from summer heat and dryness. Corn production for 2011-12 is forecast 417 million bushels lower, with expected yields down from last month across most of the Corn Belt.

While USDA increased this year’s projected milk output, it lowered the forecast for 2012, anticipating that expected higher feed prices will reduce the rate of growth in milk per cow.

Commercial dairy exports for 2011 were raised on the strength of current product exports. For 2012, fat basis exports are lowered, largely on slightly weaker butter exports. Skim solids imports are raised for both 2011 and 2012.

Cheese prices for 2011 are forecast lower, but nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are forecast higher on the strength of relatively strong exports. Butter prices remain unchanged. The Class III price is lowered, based on the lower forecast cheese price, but the Class IV price forecast is unchanged from last month.

For 2012, butter and cheese prices are unchanged, but NDM and whey prices are forecast higher. The Class III price is unchanged, but the Class IV price forecast is raised.

The All-Milk price forecast is lowered to $20.15 to $20.35 per cwt. for 2011, but is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt. for 2012.