Larger-Than-Expected Corn Carryover May Boost Dairy Outlook

Farm Journal logo

Today’s USDA report is seen as bearish for corn prices, moderately bullish for livestock producers.

The prospect of larger-than-expected corn supplies after a season of drought dominated USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today, consigning dairy forecasts to a relative nonevent.

Milk production, dairy demand and prices remained relatively unchanged from last month's WASDE outlook. 2012 U.S. milk output is forecast at 199.9 billion pounds, down from 200 billion pounds projected in August but still higher than 2011’s production of 196.2 billion pounds.

USDA’s U.S. corn outlook reflected an increase in expected 2012-13 beginning stocks, which more than offset lower production. Today's WASDE report put the nation’s 2012 corn crop at a 6-year low and pegged the soybean crop as the smallest in nine years. But, bucking expectations of shrunken corn supplies, USDA raised the carryover into the 2012-13 year by 160 million bushels from last month, to 1.181 billion bushels. It also raised expectations for higher feed usage.

The report was considered bearish for corn prices. December corn closed at $7.69 per bu., down 8¢.

The WASDE projections, however, may boost the outlook for livestock producers.

“High corn prices have been killing demand,” said Robin Schmahl, marketing and hedging specialist with AgDairy LLC.

Corn at $8 per bu. has resulted in heavier-than-normal livestock culling, slower ethanol production and fewer exports, Schmahl said.

“A weakening corn price will slow dairy cow culling,” he said. Likewise, rising milk prices should help dairies “stop the bleeding,” added Schmahl.

Class III futures prices have surpassed $19 per cwt. on declining milk production and expectations of stronger demand in the coming months.

Today’s report estimated the 2013 All-Milk price at $17.85 to $18.85 per cwt., up from $17.80 to $18.00 per cwt. that USDA has estimated for 2012.

 

Latest News

Dairy Finances: Being Prepared For Tough Times Has Big Payback
Dairy Finances: Being Prepared For Tough Times Has Big Payback

If there’s any assurance about the economic picture for the dairy industry and agriculture in general going forward in the next few years, it’s that volatility will be a constant.

Who “Nose” When a Calf is Getting Sick?
Who “Nose” When a Calf is Getting Sick?

If you want to stay ahead of calf health and catch sickness in its earliest stage, University of Minnesota Graduate Student Abbigail Prins offers a handy detection tip.

How To Outline Clear Direction For Each Role On Your Team
How To Outline Clear Direction For Each Role On Your Team

“The single most important tool to predict peak performance is a very well-developed job description,” Dave Mitchell says.

Know Your Business Pressures, Trends And Actions For Big Breakthroughs
Know Your Business Pressures, Trends And Actions For Big Breakthroughs

Mark Faust outlines a simple formula to improve profitability and create more value for you and the customer.

Robotic Technology Helps These Dairies Become Better
Robotic Technology Helps These Dairies Become Better

Smart farming robotic technology is all in the name of cow comfort, efficiency and productivity. 

Milk Prices Continue to Fizzle Out
Milk Prices Continue to Fizzle Out

A wild week in milk markets finished on a fizzle.