Alabama

New World Screwworm Map & 2026 Spread Predictions

Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:18:53 GMT

As social media fills with maps and predictions about how far New World screwworm might spread this summer, many livestock producers are asking the same question: When will it get to me?

According to Cassandra Olds, Kansas State University Extension entomologist, that’s the wrong place to start. “I think everybody’s kind of bracing for when will it get to me, and I don’t think that we really know,” she says.

She argues producers should focus on how the pest moves and what management steps can slow it down or keep it out of their herds in the first place.

Meteorologist Matt Makens explains weather patterns act as both a barrier and bridge for screwworm activity. For producers, that may be the most important line to keep in mind through the rest of the warm season.

How Temperature and Rainfall Affect Screwworm Survival

Weather does not just influence screwworm activity — it helps determine where the pest can survive, reproduce and spread.

Makens explains temperature thresholds can dictate screwworm development. Pupa development cannot proceed below about 58°F and halts above 110°F, while adult survival and reproduction are most favorable around 81.5°F. That means much of the southern U.S. is warm enough during summer to support at least temporary fly survival and movement. But heat alone does not tell the full story.

“While temperature defines where screwworms can survive, rainfall and moisture influence when and how intensely they can thrive,” Makens adds. In other words, many areas may be warm enough, but not every area will be equally favorable.

For producers trying to judge risk, moisture may be the deciding factor.

“Outbreaks often follow moderate to heavy rainfall by improving conditions for larval survival,” Makens says. “When rainfall coincides with favorable temperatures, screwworm activity tends to increase.”

In contrast, hot and dry conditions tend to suppress survival and reproduction. That is an important distinction for livestock producers who may assume the hottest areas automatically face the greatest danger. Makens suggests the higher-risk zone is really where warmth and wetness overlap — especially where recent rainfall has improved soil moisture and where livestock are exposed through wounds or other openings attractive to egg-laying flies.

Makens stresses, “The fly can’t live without water and dry soil is no good for their larvae.”

That means producers should watch not only temperatures, but also rainfall patterns, wet soils, humidity and any shift toward a more tropical summer setup.

Screwworm Migration Patterns: The Role of the North American Monsoon

Weather can do more than create suitable habitat — it can also physically help move the pest northward.

“One of the primary ways to move the fly, other than animal transport, is the weather,” Makens says, pointing specifically to the North American Monsoon, describing it as “a dominant source of migration.”

That monsoon pattern generally develops from late spring into summer and shifts winds into a more southerly, moisture-rich flow across Mexico and into parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. He adds wind-assisted movements created an atmospheric “conveyor belt” that, in past outbreak years, helped reconnect infestations in the Southwest with source populations farther south.

For producers, that means concern should not be limited to locations immediately adjacent to current infestations. If winds, moisture and temperatures line up, the pest could move well beyond the border region.

The broader weather pattern matters, Makens summarizes, but so does what is happening in each pasture and pen. Screwworm is most likely to move north not in a uniform wave, but in jumps — following corridors where heat, moisture and wind align.

Why We Can’t “Draw a Line” to Where Screwworm Goes Next

Olds says predicting screwworm migration with precision goes well beyond a simple climate map.

“To actually predict, you need fairly sophisticated models that take into account the number of eggs that a fly can lay, the number of flies in the population, how far a fly can move, animal movements and things like that,” she explains. “Realistically, it’s incredibly difficult to predict how fast it’s going to spread.”

Historic data gives rough guidance on how far the flies themselves can move.

“We have some data, right, like 0.75 to 1.25 miles a day is average dispersal in previous outbreaks,” Olds notes. “But that really depends on conditions and how big your population is.”

Landscape also matters. Olds says NWS flies don’t like to cross bodies of water, so major rivers and other barriers can slow natural spread. But those biological and landscape limits are only half the story.

How Livestock Transport Spreads Screwworm Outbreaks

In addition to natural fly dispersal, livestock movements can pick the parasite up in one region and plant it in another.

“To predict where it’s going to go really depends on whether you’ve got fly movement and animal movement, or a combination of both,” Olds summarizes.

In other words, trucks can leapfrog flies. That’s one of the biggest reasons no one can honestly tell a producer in Kansas, Oklahoma or farther north that “their turn” will come in a certain month or year.

“I don’t think it’s as easy as, yeah, Kansas will get it next year, or Oklahoma will get it next year, or next month,” she stresses. “The only way we know is once it starts behaving — once we can start watching it in Texas — then we can make predictions about how it may spread further out.”

How Producer Behavior Can Speed Or Slow Screwworm Spread

Human decisions might matter as much as weather and biology.

Olds warns failure to report infestations and comply with control measures could dramatically accelerate spread. That puts producers in the position of front‑line risk managers. Reporting and allowing treatment might be inconvenient, but Olds says it’s also the best way to keep the parasite from marching across the map.

Making Sense of Social Media Maps

(Texas Tested Seeds & Plants)

One viral graphic, pictured above, created by Beverly Thomas of Texas Tested Seeds & Plants attempts to predict the potential NWS range based on climate suitability and historical data.

Thomas admits she is not an expert: “I’m just reporting what’s happening and going by historical references.”

Her post says: “The threat is divided into two distinct biological zones…where the fly can live *permanently*, and how far north it can march during the warm months. The ‘Summer Dispersal Zone’ — NWS can reach Kansas, Missouri, Tennessee and further north via wind/livestock. The ‘Overwintering Zone’ where NWS could become permanently established in South/Central Texas & Gulf Coast areas due to mild winters. Winter is the ultimate limiting factor because screwworm pupae can’t survive hard, prolonged soil freezes. However, the winters of the 2020s are significantly milder than those of the 1950s when eradication began. The new reality is that the permanent, year-round survival zone is no longer confined safely to Southern Mexico. South Texas, the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the Gulf Coast could now be treated as year-round establishment zones. Many entomologists believe that warmer winter trends will allow the permanent NWS overwintering line to push into Central Texas and across the deep Southeast (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida).”

Thomas’ map predicts:

Critical/Active Regions: South Texas, Lower Rio Grande Valley. High humidity and thick brush provide ideal habitat. The parasite can easily establish a year-round lifecycle here if not eradicated quickly.
High Risk Regions: Central/East Texas, Gulf Coast, Coastal Louisiana, Southern Florida. These areas are at high vulnerability for permanent establishment. Mild modern winters mean soil temperatures rarely drop low enough for long enough periods of time to kill burrowed pupae.
Moderate Risk Regions: Northern Texas (Dallas/Panhandle), Oklahoma, Arkansas. These areas have a high vulnerability for summer infestation. While winter freezes will reliably clear out populations annually, unchecked spring/summer migrations could trigger devastating seasonal outbreaks.

Olds reviewed the map and says it is directionally reasonable, but producers should understand what it is — and what it’s not.

“If you have a suitable climate and a way for the fly to get there, a population can establish,” she says. “Suitable climates are different than what they were historically because we’ve got changing climate conditions.”

She notes climate change and cattle movement mean today’s “at‑risk” zone may be broader than the historical endemic area.

“A large part of the United States is at risk. We know what it was historically. This may have changed because climate conditions are different now,” she says. “I don’t think this map is super alarmist, it’s probably close enough, as much as we can be at this early stage.”

For producers, that means maps can illustrate potential climate and geographic risk, but they don’t provide a day‑by‑day forecast for when screwworm will show up at the ranch gate.

Practical Risk Management: What Producers Can Do Now

Since no one can reliably answer “when,” Olds recommends reframing the question: How do I reduce the risk of introduction and spread in my herd and region?

She highlights three practical steps to reduce risk:

Control Movements Out of Infested Areas. “The management of risk is making sure we aren’t having cattle leave infested areas that have not been inspected because that’s the fastest way to get it to seed somewhere else,” she explains.
Inspect New Arrivals. “Monitor any cattle that you receive to make sure they don’t have it, so you’re curbing also the infestation,” she adds. That means working with veterinarians, checking animals closely — especially any wounds — and asking questions about origin and treatment history before cattle are commingled.
Track Confirmed Cases Through Official Channels. Rather than relying only on social feeds, Olds points producers to official reporting: “Watch the screwworm.gov website because they are going to report every single case, so then you’ll be able to gauge month by month, it’s moving here.”

She says following those steps allows producers to distinguish between natural fly expansion risk and introduction risk. For livestock producers in the Texas counties surrounding current outbreaks, she says the priorities are heightened vigilance and wound monitoring.

The Takeaway: Manage Risk Now, Don’t Wait for Certainty

The science isn’t yet able to offer producers a neat line on a map or a firm date on the calendar. But Olds’ message is that uncertainty about timing does not mean inaction.

While NWS’s exact migration path will depend on climate, flies, cattle movements and human behavior, producers can act now: Report cases, cooperate with control efforts, tighten biosecurity on cattle movements and stay current on official updates.

Or, as Olds puts it, instead of focusing on when, focus on: “What am I doing today to keep it from getting here at all?”

The Cream Rises in West Alabama: The Return of Circle J Dairy

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 13:07:04 GMT

In the quiet, gently rolling landscape of Gordo, Ala., the rhythmic hum of a dairy parlor had been absent for nearly three decades. For 27 years, the Junkin family acreage held the memories of a lifestyle that seemed to have vanished with the closing of the twentieth century. But in 2022, that silence was finally broken. The cows are back, the bottles are filling and a new generation is proving the dairy industry in west Alabama isn’t just a part of the past; it is a vibrant, thriving part of the future.

The story of Circle J Dairy is a powerful homecoming — a narrative of a legacy interrupted, a family’s resilience and a bold reimagining of what it means to be a dairy farmer in the 21^st century.

A Legacy Interrupted

The roots of Circle J run deep into the Alabama soil, stretching back to 1956. That was the year Ralph Junkin Sr. — known to his family as “Papa” — started milking cows at just 19 years old. He began with a small herd in a little white flat barn that still stands today, a silent witness to the generations that followed.

For nearly 40 years, the Junkin family lived by the clock of the dairy. Jessica Vails’ father, Ralph Junkin Jr., was born 10 years into that journey and grew up with the barn as his classroom. After attending Mississippi State in the 1980s, Ralph Jr. returned to the home place to work alongside his father. At its peak, the original operation milked 200 cows, shipping bulk milk commercially.

However, the mid-1990s brought a perfect storm of low milk prices and rising costs. In 1995, just one year before Jessica and her twin brother, Seth, were born, the family was forced to sell the herd. It was an economic decision, but an emotional tragedy.

“My dad says that was the worst day of their lives,” Vails recalls. “They didn’t want to sell. They loved it. For my papa, everything revolved around those cows.”

The cows left, but the land remained. For nearly 30 years, the Junkins focused on poultry and beef cattle, but the “dairy itch” never truly went away. Papa passed away in 2011, never seeing a Holstein or Jersey return to the home place, but his spirit remained the foundation for what was to come.

(Photos provided by Circle J Dairy)

The Spark of Reinvention

Vails grew up with the stories of the dairy, but she never expected to be the one to bring it back. While a junior at Mississippi State majoring in agricultural communications, she was at a crossroads. She knew she wanted a career in agriculture, and the lingering tug at returning to her roots pulled deeper and deeper.

Vails’ lightbulb moment came when she read about a woman who had started a direct-to-consumer dairy. She realized the reason her grandfather had been forced out wasn’t a lack of passion — it was a lack of control over the margin.

“We decided that if we were going to do this, we weren’t going to be at the mercy of the bulk milk market,” Vails says. “We were going to be the processors. We were going to own the whole chain.”

This was the birth of the vertical integration model for Circle J. Instead of getting big, they decided to get personal.

Building the All-in-One Dream

The transition to a professional creamery was a family marathon. From July 2021 to December 2022, the family moved dirt and laid the foundation for an all-in-one facility. Under a single roof, they built a modern milking parlor, a state-of-the-art processing plant and a cute farm store.

They started small, milking just 14 cows — mostly Jerseys for their high component levels and rich cream, with a few Holsteins in the mix. But the community’s hunger for local milk was something they underestimated.

“We started selling to the public on Jan. 1, 2023,” Vails says. “We had five delivery spots lined up, and we quickly realized 14 cows wasn’t going to cut it. We had to keep buying cows just to keep up with the demand.”

Today, the herd has grown to nearly 60 head, and Circle J milk can be found in 22 grocery stores, including local Piggly Wigglys, as well as five coffee shops and four restaurants.

(Photos provided by Circle J Dairy)

The Cream-Line Difference

What makes the Circle J product so special is the commitment to traditional quality. Their milk is not homogenized; it is cream-line milk, where the cream naturally rises to the top.

“Our milk is as pure as you can get,” Vails explains. “Most people like it better than other brands of milk the grocery stores have to offer because ours is vat pasteurized at only 145°F and not homogenized. It also reminds them what real milk used to taste like.”

The farm store opens its doors every Saturday from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Customers don’t just buy milk, chocolate milk and ice cream; they watch the process. Through a large viewing window in the parlor, families watch the cows being milked into glass weight jars — vintage equipment Ralph Jr. salvaged from old dairies to maintain a connection to the past.

A Family’s Resilience

The return of dairy to Circle J Dairy is a true family affair. Vails’ father helps with the cow side of the business – breeding, herd health and record keeping – and her mother serves as foreman of the creamery, as well as helping milk, too. Vails’ husband is also a huge part, lending a helping hand with milking, delivering milk and feeding calves.

“My mom handles the pasteurizing and the ice cream recipes — dutch chocolate, vanilla bean, and butter pecan. I handle the marketing, the labeling and the milking, as well as help with milk deliveries. It takes every one of us to make this operation work,” Vails says.

Watching it all is two-year-old Lula, the fifth generation. Sporting rubber boots, she is already learning the “shoo” of the cows and the rhythm of the parlor. For Vails, seeing Lula in the barn is the ultimate full-circle moment.

“Seeing the next generation learn what we do on a daily basis is the coolest thing ever,” she says. “Lula loves to help feed the bottle calves and help in the milking parlor.”

(Photos provided by Circle J Dairy)

Reclaimed Legacy

As Circle J Dairy looks toward the future, the goal remains the same: clarity and control. By processing their own product and selling it directly to their neighbors, they have bulletproofed their legacy against the volatility that took their cows away in 1995.

Vails is now the face of dairy in a region that had nearly forgotten what a local milk bottle looked like. She has bridged the gap between her grandfather’s flat milking barn and a modern, tech-forward creamery.

“I think Papa would be down here every single day if he were still with us,” Vails says. “He’d be giving advice and probably trying to help us milk. I just hope we’re making him proud by keeping the roots alive in a new way.”

In Gordo, Ala., the silence has been replaced by the sound of progress. Circle J Dairy isn’t just selling milk; they are selling a return to the land, a connection to the community and the enduring power of a family that refused to let their heritage fade away.

“My dad always says: ‘Just do your best, work hard and it’ll all be fine,’” she says. “We all still try our best to stick to that advice daily, too.”

Select Sires Reveals Cooperative Merger Creating Premier Select Sires

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:53:45 GMT

Combining forces, the Select Sire Power, Inc. and Southeast Select Sires, Inc. will officially become one and renamed Premier Select Sires, Inc. effective Jan. 1, 2019.

The same specialists who currently serve beef and dairy customers will continue to support their local member-owners, only as part of a larger team with a wider network of in-house support, according to Select Sires. Premier Select Sires will combine the territories of the two previous cooperatives, covering a total of 23 states.

These states include:

Maine
Vermont
Maryland
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Delaware
Connecticut
New York
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Kansas
Tennessee
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
And Washington DC

“Premier Select Sires is the result of combining two financially strong cooperatives in order to benefit both memberships with pooled resources. We look forward to working together to continue to be the Premier genetic provider,” said Tim Riley, General Manager of Southeast Select Sires, in a press release.

Because of an aligned set of strengths and goals, the boards of Select Sire Power and Southeast Select Sires unanimously approved the affiliation agreement.

“This is a very exciting time for both organizations and we look forward to charting a successful future together. The larger cooperative will allow us to provide greater diversity of products and services to meet the modern needs of beef and dairy producers throughout our territory,” said Mark Carpenter, General Manager of Select Sire Power and future CEO of Premier Select Sires.

This is not the first merger the company has experienced throughout the past two years. In June 2017, Select Sires and Accelerated Genetics announced that Select Sires would acquire the assets of Accelerated Genetics.

This news also comes after the announcement of the holding companies Alta Genetics and GENEX forming their new organization, URUS. The intent to merge Koepon Holding BV and Cooperative Resources International (CRI) was first announced last December. Included in the merger are the following companies: AgSource , Alta Genetics , GENEX , Jetstream Genetics , PEAK/GENESIS , SCCL and VAS .