Cattle Market Reports and Analysis

Cull Cows Defy Seasonality

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:04:31 GMT

All the talk of relaxing tariffs on imported beef, knowing that the majority of our beef imports are lean beef trimmings to go into ground beef competing with cull cow beef, suggested it might be time to take a quick look at the cull cow market.

Most will remember that cull cow prices tend to hit their seasonal lows in the rall. The most important reason for the price decline is that more cows are culled from the herd in the fall.

For beef cattle, the largest proportion of cows are culled in the fall following calf weaning. On the dairy side, cow culling increases from summertime lows. The increase in supplies of cows for sale results in lower prices. Another contributor to lower prices is the end of grilling season, with consumers shifting over to more fall and winter consumption patterns.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

So far this fall, the cull cow market has defied normal seasonality. Southern Plains cull cow auction prices hit about $165 per cwt. back in June and have remained there since then. A couple weeks of declines were followed by rebounds back to about $165 per cwt. National average cutter quality cows have declined recently, slipping about $9 per cwt. to $126.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

While the live cow market has not declined much, the same cannot be said for the cow beef market. The boxed cow beef cutout climbed to $340 per cwt. but has declined to $317 over the last two months. Wholesale 90% lean beef has declined from $436 to $404 per cwt. over the same period. Both the boxed beef cutout and wholesale 90% lean have followed the normal season pattern, declining into the fall.

(USDA-AMS, USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

We are likely to see some increased culling from the dairy side of the beef industry in the coming months. USDA’s latest milk production report indicated the nation’s dairy cow herd at 9.85 million head. That is the largest herd since at least 1993.

Milk production in September was 4% larger than the year before. Milk prices are beginning to decline sharply with increased production. There is no doubt that the increased returns from using beef bull instead of dairy breed semen to produce beef-on-dairy calves is boosting profits and aiding in the dairy herd expansion.

Beef cow culling is likely to remain low due to the historically small cow herd and incentives to expand. More dairy cow culling and less beef cow culling will continue to leave cull cow prices high.

Your Next Read: Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Why Aren't High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 17:10:10 GMT

Gound beef prices across the U.S. continue to reach new highs. Retail prices for ground beef hit its highest level in history in June climbing above $6 per pound, while steaks were up 8% at $11.49 per pound.

(Bureau of Labor Statistics )

“The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist for livestock and food product marketing. “While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.”

Anderson explains reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up for seasonal beef demand. The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says: “What we have seen so far is consumers have been incredibly loyal to protein collectively, but they have been especially loyal to beef, and beef is actually continuing to gain market there, even at the current prices at the expense of the other protein.”

Wages Are Keeping Pace With Beef Prices

Close says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages he found they are in lock step.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” he explains. “So from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

(Don Close, Terrain )

Other contributing factors to beef demand include consumers’ craze for protein and the impact of GLP-1 diets on protein consumption.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says: “I think beef demand has just proven time and time again — hey, consumers want it. It’s a great healthy protein, and I think it’s got a lot of good traction here over the last year of being a good quality source of food.”

High Quality Attracts Consumer Spending

Plus, with 82% to 84% of the beef produced grading Choice or better, the high quality of beef is pushing demand.

“I don’t see any weakness really in the consumers or their spending habits,” says Mike Minor, professional ag marketing. “We actually are eating more Prime meat today than Choice for the first time ever. So, people like their expensive meat still.”

How Long Will High Cattle and Beef Prices Last?

Last week USDA reported average fed cash cattle prices hit the second-highest level in history at $237.78, up 57¢ from the average the prior week.

The high cattle and beef prices continue to be driven by tight cattle numbers, the Mexican boarder closing due to New World screwworm and looming import challenges.

Yet, Close says the role of strong demand can’t be ignored and is likely to continue.

“I think it’s certainly through 2026 and really more realistic somewhere deep into 2027,” he adds.

Anderson explains normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs. Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

“Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices,” Anderson says. “But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer. Wholesale beef prices are already declining.”

He adds there is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.

“But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year-ago levels,” Anderson emphasizes.

Inventory Reports Release on July 25

Close says more will be known about supply levels after the USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports on Friday.

“While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1,” Anderson summarizes. “The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention. Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.”

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Buckle Up: Here's Why Cattle Prices Are Setting Up for Another Wild Ride in 2025

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 21:47:01 GMT

The cattle markets hit historic highs again to start 2025, and as USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory report showed U.S. beef cattle inventory fell to the lowest level in 64 years , tight supplies and strong demand could push cattle prices to even higher highs in 2025.

USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. total cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, with the number of beef cows also down 1%.

Those numbers, along with questions around just how much higher these markets can go, were major topics surrounding the 2025 CattleCon in San Antonio, Texas, (the annual cattle industry convention) this past week.

Signs of a Slowdown?
Economists and market analysts knew the cattle herd was still shrinking, even before the report was released last week. But economists say there are some signs starting to signal that is slowing down.

“We certainly got smaller in 2024. That was actually kind of obvious about a year ago when you looked at heifer numbers,” said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock specialist. “If you look at the heifer numbers in this report, we don’t have a lot. And so we’re going to be challenged going forward to stop this liquidation. I think we might stabilize numbers this year, but I think growth is pretty much a long shot at this point.”

“I think we’re getting close to the bottom, as Darrell referenced,” said Don Close, senior animal protein analyst for Terrain, during the U.S. Farm Report live taping at NCBA’s annual convention. “I think the challenge is retaining enough heifers out of the supply that we have to provide the fuel for the build back.”

Calf Crop Was a Big Surprise
Casey Mabry, with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, said there actually was a surprise in the latest cattle inventory report, and that wasn’t with heifer numbers.

“The biggest surprise to me was really looking at the total calf crop report, because we’re looking at the total cow inventory numbers. I think that probably caught some people off guard, having the calf crop a little bit bigger than what most people’s expectations were,” said Mabry.

Incentives Drive Outcome
With cash cattle hitting records to start 2025 a question on almost everyone’s mind is, can it continue? Mabry said it really depends on if demand can remain steady, since the supply side will remain tight.

“Incentives drive outcome and obviously with grain prices as cheap as they’ve been, and cattle prices as high as they’ve been, we’ve held on to some cattle. So it’s kept the front end of the market really, really tight and it’s kept packers chasing after cattle. So that ran the market $10 or $15 higher, in my opinion, than what we should have on the front end,” said Mabry. “So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch as we go through the back end of this thing. We’ve probably got to work through some stuff right here on the front end. But if the analysts continue to say we’re going to be tighter and demand stays pretty good, we’ll probably see prices exceed where we were before.”

“We’re Still Bullish”
Peel reminds producers there’s a great deal of risk in these markets. He said the markets don’t like uncertainty. With trade concerns and tariff threats, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, the combination is throwing uncertainty into the market.

“We’re very bullish and still bullish in general going forward for average prices,” said Peel. “But we also know that we’re subject to a lot of shocks right now. We’ve seen a couple already. We’re certainly vulnerable. There’s a lot of air below us since this market is so high. So producers really need to still do that risk management. Producers need to think about those marketing windows. If you got caught in a shock in one of those, it could really be devastating to you.”

Close has similar advice. He said with the development of insurance products, plus futures and options contracting, there are several ways for producers to manage risk today.

“At the price level we’re at, and just any measured retracement in the market, it could take you out of the game. At these price levels, it is absolutely imperative to have some kind of price risk management program in place,” said Close.

“I think you just need to run with what I call a keen sense of paranoia,” said Mabry. “I mean, be bullish, be excited about the market, but don’t get overly euphoric. We’ve got to remember back a short three or four years ago, we were all in the doldrums and very scared. And there’s a lot of people that were telling their kids to get into a different business. And now all of a sudden, we’re all jumping on the bandwagon of cattle and getting excited about this. So, we want to make sure that you guys are running your businesses like businesses and not gambling on cattle.”

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Are More Record Cattle Prices Ahead in 2025?

USDA is Discontinuing A Major Cattle Report, And it Could Now Spur More Volatility For Cattle Prices

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 19:44:58 GMT

USDA announced this week it’s nixing a major cattle inventory report . The July Cattle Inventory report, which is only one of two inventory reports released each year, will be no more.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it’s also canceling all county estimates for crops and livestock starting this year. In the announcement, NASS blamed budget cuts from the most recent appropriations bills.

It now intends to only release one cattle inventory report annually in January.

“It’s going to be something to the livestock market and the grain markets are going to have to get used to,” says Chip Nellinger, co-owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing. “It obviously has implications as far as what the herd size and the different classes and weights across our cattle herd are. So that’s going to be a big unknown in the middle of the year.”

Nellinger says the other side is how the report could also impact the grain markets.

“What’s that mean to feed demand? How many head of cattle are on feed,” says Nellinger.

Related News: NASS Discontinues County Estimates For Crops And Livestock and July Cattle Report

At a time when tight cattle supplies generated record-high cattle prices already this year, the timing of no July Cattle Inventory report is also murky. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says it will have an impact on the cattle markets.

“It adds to the volatility, it definitely does,” says Suderman. “The frustration in the industry is when they look at some of the things that USDA is spending money on, that don’t seem to be part of the original mission of the agency, and then short change us on issues that really have an economic impact on the development and progress of the economy of this industry. That’s where the frustration is.”

Related News: U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low

NASS’ decision to cancel the report is garnering frustration from farm group, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). NCBA also thinks this could mean more volatility for the market and make it more difficult for producers to see into the future when it comes to supplies.

USDA tried to cut the July cattle inventory report in 20-16 and ended up reinstating it. NCBA calling on NASS to reverse its decision again.

Trusteed IRAs: why they are popular, who should consider them, what benefits they offer

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 20:01:45 GMT

Q: I’ve heard a lot about trusteed IRAs. How do they differ from traditional IRAs?

A: Simply put, trusteed IRAs offer potential tax benefits of traditional or Roth IRAs with the protection and control of a trust. They provide tax advantages that stretch into the future and offer the ability to control how, when and in what amounts assets are distributed. Trusteed IRAs have become more popular given some of the inherent limits of traditional IRAs and the growing prevalence of self-directed retirement accounts combined with the decline of pension plans. They also are more cost-effective than setting up a trust and are generally more compliant with tax laws.

Q: Who should consider a trusteed IRA?

A: There are several reasons why someone should consider a trusteed IRA, the most consequential of which is if an owner has an interest in controlling assets and realizing tax benefits beyond their lifetime. This can mean an owner is concerned with the financial discipline or sophistication of heirs.

Other reasons include if an owner remarries and wants to provide for a current spouse as well as children from a previous relationship and/or is concerned about IRA management in the event of incapacitation.

Q: I’m in the middle of estate planning. How can a trusteed IRA help with the process?

A: They can help process if only to preserve the potential tax-advantaged accumulation of IRA benefits to pass on to heirs. Under traditional or custodial IRAs, a beneficiary is required to withdraw at least the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) each year. However, a beneficiary may withdraw additional amounts, for any reason, at any time—and incur possible fees or tax penalties.

Additionally, owners can restrict payouts to a beneficiary to the RMD, enabling it to operate as a spendthrift trust. At the owner’s death, the trusteed IRA would be automatically split into separate accounts for individual beneficiaries, with distribution terms defined for each account.

Another benefit is that estate plans don’t need to be rewritten or updated; trusteed IRAs can be added independent of an estate plan to protect IRA assets which legally pass outside of wills.

Q: Is a trusteed IRA better suited to farmers or owners of farm assets?

A: Not expressly, but a trusteed IRA can play an important role in legacy planning and preservation of farm assets over multiple generations. Given the growing generation gap among farming families, trusteed IRAs could be a way help preserve farm family values over generations from beyond the grave. Moreover, as farm economics continues to change, farmers may find value in the highly customizable nature of trusteed IRAs. In the event of a divorce in the family, for example, assets can be made to not leave the family’s bloodlines.

Q: Are there any downsides to trusteed IRAs?

A: Given that a trusteed IRA requires a corporate trustee, it’s harder to change ownership and family members cannot be named as trustees. Not all financial institutions offer trusteed IRAs so they may not be widely available to interested clients. Additionally, while they offer greater customization and more control, trusteed IRAs carry some limits. To have the highest level of customization and control, a trust would need to be created.

Please send questions, comments or requests to address a topic or issue to Rees Mason at rees.mason@ml.com.