Cheese

Cheese Exports Hit All-Time High in March as Global Appetite Grows

Tue, 12 May 2026 13:00:00 GMT

Records were broken with over 63,435 MT exported in the month of March of cheese alone, an all-time high for single month exports, jumping over 29% from March of 2025. Butterfat and AMF exports also set a single month record at 17,074 MT shipped, 109.9% higher than March of 2025.

The world wants U.S. cheese with a shift in desire for western-style foods, more restaurant and food service demand at a competitive price not found in other countries due to our abundance of supply available her in the United States. Cheese exports are trending higher, with the first quarter of 2026 totaling an increase of 23.2% higher year over year.

Meanwhile, butter production was up 1.2% in March while butter exports year-to-date are up nearly 93.2% from the same quarter last year. Which raises the question if the U.S. can keep up with the export demand despite the increasing production. Churns are running seven days a week with growing milk and cream supply and spring flush is here with outstanding weather for cow comfort.

(USDA)

While cheese and butterfat are the stars of the show, milk powders are the most vulnerable in the export category. Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) broke their four-month year over year growth streak with a decline of 8% lower volume in the month of March 2026 when compared to the extremely high volume traded in March of 2026. All is not lost though, March 2026 was still the highest export volume we’ve seen in five months, it’s comparison to March 2025, being the highest export volume of the whole year, makes the year over year data look poorer than it is.

(USDA)

When looking at the dairy export data, the volume is certainly impressive, however the economic impact is outstanding. The value of dairy products exported reached the high dollar amount of $892.4 million in March, the highest monthly value seen in nearly four years. This is an increase of 6% more value year over year as reported from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

The biggest markets for U.S. exports of dairy products in total value during the first quarter of the year were Mexico at $675.4 million, up 10% YoY, Canada who declined 19% YoY still came in second with total dollars purchased coming in at $295.4 million, Japan at $156.4 million, up 8%; South Korea at $145.5 million, up 19%; and China dropping 24% in 2026 with ongoing trade negotiations coming in at $123.9 million. All other major customers were under $100 million with anywhere from Colombia up 77% YoY to Philippines down 10% with most showing big increases YoY.

So, while the market wants to focus on the massive amount of production the United States is producing, the export program continues to be a bright light. World demand is continuing to increase, and we have the supply to feed it.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

The Silent Strength of Cheese

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 13:34:00 GMT

Over the years, cheese demand has slowly crept its way up to one of the most utilized dairy products. Per capita, the United States consumes the highest amount of cheese at 19.3 kg (about 42.5 pounds) annually. In second place, Canada consumes 14.5 kg per capita while the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Argentina trail shortly behind at 12.5-9.40 kg respectively.

While Cheese dominates consumer demand at record levels, it also dominates a big part of the milk supply. Cheese is the leading user of U.S. milkfat, at 65% of manufactured milk being utilized for cheese production. That is a huge help when we see record setting milk production month after month here in 2025 and 2026.

Earlier this month, the USDA forecasted the 2026 milk production to increase 1.5% from 2025, coming in at 235.3 billion pounds, more than 600 million pounds from a month earlier. Despite this increase in milk production, the USDA increased the projected cheese price due to recent strength in the cheese market.

The cheese price strength has been slowly creeping up from the January lows. While milk production increases, the Cold Storage Report shows available supply fading. Last week, the report showed total natural cheese stocks up 1% from the previous month but down 2% from the previous year. When you compile these facts on top of the knowledge that milk production is growing year-over-year, you can see the story building as to why cheese is the silent strength behind the dairy market. Should milk production decline, cheese will be a major factor in future price hikes.

In the short term, traders do not expect cheese to lead any major rallies. However, when looking at long term trends, with consumer demand more than doubling per capita in the last 45 years, it is hard to ignore the steady growth in the U.S. alone. Therefore, it may be the support that places a solid price floor for dairy products in the months to come.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

What’s Driving a Better Dairy Outlook in the Second Half of 2026

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 19:59:57 GMT

Milk prices started 2026 on a soft note, but the outlook has improved somewhat as the year has progressed. Futures markets now suggest slightly stronger prices later in the year, offering some optimism for dairy margins.

Still, the improvement is measured. Strong protein demand, shifting consumer habits, global trade dynamics and record beef values are all shaping today’s dairy outlook. Those same forces could also introduce volatility over the next year.

“We have a lot better story to tell today than we did a few weeks ago,” says Kathleen Wolfley, market intelligence director with Ever.Ag. “We’re looking at a market today that is significantly higher than where we were trading at the beginning of the year. Class IV prices are around $19 a hundredweight. Class III prices are around $18 a hundredweight average.”

Even with prices looking a bit better, tight budgets and higher costs are still weighing on dairy demand. During a recent Standard Dairy Consultants webinar, Wolfley and Mike North, president of the producer division at Ever.Ag, gave their take on the current economic outlook for dairy.

A Split Consumer Economy

Energy costs are emerging as one of the biggest economic pressures affecting food demand, particularly for middle- and lower-income households.

“Fuel prices are the top item I’ve been watching here in the last few weeks,” Wolfley says. “I’m in New York, so if I pay over $4 a gallon, it pinches a little bit more than it did back in February when gas prices were in the mid-$2 range.”

But when fuel gets more expensive, family budgets feel it in a hurry.

“In our estimation, it’s costing a family $30 to $40 more per week to fill the tank. That’s basically takeout for a family of four,” Wolfley says. “It’s an easy way to cut back, especially in an environment where folks are feeling pinched.”

The result is a split consumer economy.

“You have some consumers, middle-to-lower income, that consistently say, ‘Hey, I am struggling with affordability,’ versus higher-income consumers that are going to feel the pinch of these energy prices a lot less,” Wolfley adds. “They’ve been absorbing the inflation over the last few years and just kind of taking it in stride.”

That uneven spending environment creates uncertainty for dairy demand.

“I’m a bit concerned about domestic demand here in the U.S. and the ability of domestic demand to recover on the backside of all this uncertainty,” Wolfley notes.

Protein Demand Off the Charts

(Stock Photo)

If one theme defines today’s dairy markets, it is protein. Nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder and whey are increasingly tied to demand for high-protein foods and beverages.

“We’re sitting at $2.06 per pound on the CME nonfat dry milk market, Wolfley says. “That’s a really exciting move, especially for those of you that have a lot of Class IV exposure.”

But the story goes beyond price. Milk solids are increasingly moving into higher-value uses.

“There’s solids now going into cheese production or yogurt production, or into ice cream, or even into the fluid bottle that is no longer making its way into the dryers,” she adds.

Ultrafiltered milk and protein beverages are capturing a growing share of milk solids, pulling more wet solids away from traditional drying channels and into high-protein beverage production. At the same time, U.S. powder markets remain tighter than global supplies, creating added competition pressure for exporters.

“It’s really important to consider that the tightness in this nonfat dry milk market is just a U.S. issue,” she says. “In the rest of the world, they’ve got a lot of supply, and they’re making a lot of powder.”

European milk production rose about 5% year-over-year early in 2026, increasing global powder availability. With U.S. powder priced 50¢ to 60¢ above global competitors, export buyers may start looking elsewhere.

“If you’re a buyer in Southeast Asia, why would you go to the U.S. for your nonfat dry milk or your skim milk powder needs when you can buy it cheaper out of New Zealand or the EU?” Wolfley asks.

Mexico, one of the largest buyers of U.S. dairy products, may already be exploring alternatives.

“I think those Mexican buyers are now looking at alternate sources to say, ‘Can I get it cheaper out of the EU even with the freight costs? Can I go to the GDT auction and get supply that helps alleviate some of that price pressure?’” she says.

For U.S. producers, that means the current rally in nonfat prices could face pressure if exports slow.

Butter Markets Swing with Global Trade

(iStock)

Butter markets have already experienced volatility this year.

“Butter prices rallied all the way above $2 a pound to begin the month of March,” Wolfley says. “Fast forward six weeks, and we’re basically back to where we were in early February.”

The early butter rally was largely fueled by strong export demand, with significant volumes moving through the CME spot market and a steady flow of fat heading into international channels.

February butter exports totaled about 22 million lb., with a large share headed to the Middle East. But geopolitical tensions quickly disrupted that trade. As exports slowed, more butter stayed in the domestic market.

“I think that does open up more potential that we’re keeping fat in the domestic market that may have otherwise been earmarked for the international space,” Wolfley says.

Even so, retail demand has been strong.

“Butter has been crushing it. Cheap butter has allowed retailers to promote aggressively. To see the four-week average on butter and butter-blend sales up 10% is pretty astounding,” she notes.

Still, Wolfley cautions the Class IV complex faces potential downside risk if powder markets weaken or exports slow.

Cheese Markets Lean on Exports

Cheese markets tell a similar story of volatility and global competition. Wolfley points to how prices dropped sharply earlier in the year.

“We hit sub-$1.30 cheese in mid-January. Sub-$1.30 cheese is pretty dang cheap, especially when you compare it to the $1.70 to $1.80 price points at the end of October,” she says.

Those low prices encouraged stronger demand.

“Low prices tend to cure low prices,” Wolfley adds. “We’ve seen more advertising in food service, more promotional activity in retail and opportunities in the export market.”

Cheese production continues to climb, with February output up 4% compared to a year earlier. At the same time, exports have helped absorb some of that additional supply and keep the market more balanced.

“We shipped 129 million lbs. of cheese in February, 30% more than last year, a record-high volume,” Wolfley says. “At the same time, we’re importing less.”

Exports have become essential to keeping the market balanced.

“It tells me we have to stay competitive,” Wolfley says. “If we want to move that cheese, and the domestic consumer isn’t saying ‘Hey, I want a bunch more,’ it ultimately comes down to staying competitive versus the European mozzarella market.”

Price gaps between U.S. and European cheese have narrowed recently, reducing the cushion U.S. exporters have relied on to stay competitive in global markets. With that spread tightening, the risk of oversupply in the domestic cheese market increases if export demand softens.

“Without a big splash into the international marketplace, we could find ourselves with a lot of product looking for a home,” Wolfley notes.

GLP-1 Drugs Shift Dairy Demand

(Lori Hays)

Another emerging factor shaping dairy consumption is the rapid rise of GLP-1 medications used for weight loss and diabetes management.

“I joke that you can’t talk about dairy now without talking about GLP-1, because I think it is a really important piece of the puzzle,” Wolfley says. “About 12% of U.S. adults are using it today, compared to 6% in 2024.”

These drugs reduce overall food intake, with users typically consuming about 20% to 30% fewer calories, and that shift is starting to show up in dairy demand, particularly across categories tied to indulgence and higher-calorie foods.

“We’re seeing less pizza consumption because it doesn’t sit well with people’s stomachs on GLP-1. We’re seeing less ice cream consumption,” Wolfley says.

But the change is not entirely negative for dairy. Protein-rich foods are gaining traction.

“We’re seeing more cottage cheese consumption,” Wolfley adds. “There’s a big boom in cottage cheese production and investment because of opportunities to hit high protein needs. There’s also growth in yogurt and whey protein.”

The shift may ultimately move dairy demand away from indulgent products and toward nutrient dense, protein-focused foods.

Milk Production Expands

At the same time demand patterns are shifting, milk production continues to grow.

“We’ve asked for more milk in terms of processing,” Wolfley says. “We’ve added a lot of capacity in a short amount of time here in the U.S. — about $11 billion worth of investment expected between 2025 and 2030 — and producers have responded.”

U.S. milk production rose nearly 3% in February, showing continued strength in output as the year gets underway. Cow numbers are also increasing, up about 211,000 head year over year, signaling ongoing herd expansion across the industry. At the same time, productivity continues to improve.

“Every cow that’s out there is making more milk today than she was last year and the year before that, and she’s making more components,” Wolfley says.

Advances in genetics and feeding strategies are pushing component levels higher across the U.S. dairy herd. As a result, Wolfley has adjusted her production outlook, reflecting stronger-than-expected gains in milk output potential.

“If you’d asked me this question at the beginning of January, I would have said we might see contraction by the end of 2026,” Wolfley says. “I’m singing a little bit of a different tune today. I expect around 1.5% growth in milk production in 2026 compared to 2025.”

Beef-on-Dairy Income Remains Strong

(Wyatt Bechtel)

Strong beef markets have added another layer to the dairy profitability picture. What once served as a modest income source has grown significantly.

“The more crowds of producers I get in front of, the more I hear how important beef revenue is to the operation,” North says. “This went from casual spending money to something that’s much more substantive and really a big part of the overall profitability picture on a dairy.”

Revenue from beef-on-dairy has increased sharply.

“From late 2022, we estimated revenue on a per hundredweight basis of beef to the bottom line of about $1 to $1.50. Today, that number has grown to anywhere between $4.50 to $5,” North says.

Day-old beef-on-dairy calf prices reflect the strength of the market.

“Recently reported numbers coming in from out of the East Coast show $1,700 for a wet calf,” North says. “It seems insane, but the market has been going up for the better part of three and a half years.”

These high prices are sending a strong message to producers, pushing them to take a closer look at how beef-on-dairy plays a role on their operation.

“If you aren’t addressing beef prices in your operation right now, what are you waiting for? These prices are called record prices because we don’t get to touch them very often,” North says.

Managing Risk in a Volatile Environment

Feed markets add another layer of uncertainty. Large U.S. crops could keep pressure on corn prices, but geopolitical events and energy markets continue to create volatility.

For dairy producers, it’s another reminder to keep an eye on risk.

“There are plenty of headwinds that crude oil prices bring into our economy,” North says. “GLP-1s are real. We see big growth as we come through 2026. It’s going to create domestic headwinds for demand that we may not fully understand yet.”

Even with those challenges, the outlook for margins is cautiously optimistic.

“We are cautiously optimistic about margins as we look at the 2026 year,” North notes. “But we cannot overlook managing the risk around strong beef and dairy prices. The bottom line is: manage risk. It’s too volatile to just leave it to chance.”

An Industry in Transition

Taken together, today’s dairy markets reflect an industry in transition. Prices are improving but remain tied closely to global trade. Protein demand continues to reshape product markets. New consumer trends and medications are shifting how dairy is consumed.

At the same time, milk production continues to expand, beef-on-dairy revenue is strengthening farm balance sheets and risk management tools are playing a larger role in protecting margins.

The opportunity for growth remains strong. But in a market like this, North and Wolfley say it comes down to making the most of the good opportunities while keeping a handle on the risks.

The Unexpected Return of Cottage Cheese

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 18:22:10 GMT

For years, cottage cheese was a product in the dairy case that drew limited attention from shoppers. Today, it is one of the few dairy categories posting back-to-back gains in both sales and consumption. What started as a social media moment in 2023 has turned into something more sustained.

At the time, cottage cheese was showing up in TikTok recipes and high protein diets, riding a wave of renewed interest in protein forward eating. It would have been easy to dismiss it as another short-lived food trend that would fade as quickly as it appeared. But this has not been the case.

Retail sales data from Circana shows steady growth has continued. After bottoming out in 2022 at 534.6 million pints, cottage cheese volumes rose 9.4% in 2023, followed by a 12.5% increase in 2024 and another 14.3% gain in 2025. That puts total volume at 746.6 million pints.

USDA per capita consumption data shows a similar direction. After dropping to 1.91 lbs. per person in 2022, use rebounded to 2.37 lbs. in 2024. It is still well below historical highs, but the trend line has clearly shifted upward.

For dairy processors, it is less about a single spike and more about sustained demand holding in place.

Industry observers have pointed out just how unusual the turnaround has been, with U.S. production essentially returning to levels last seen in 1980. It is a notable shift for a category that had spent decades trending in the opposite direction.

A Shift in Perception

Inside the dairy case, cottage cheese itself has not changed much. What has changed is how consumers view it.

Chris Ross, senior vice president of marketing and R and D at HP Hood, says the product has long had strong fundamentals.

“I think cottage cheese has always been an amazing product. It’s got so much going for it. It’s nutritionally complete, it’s delicious, it’s flexible and versatile,” Ross said during a recent “The Dairy Download Podcast.”

But for many consumers, it carried the weight of being labeled a “diet food,” a perception that dulled its appeal.

“Its momentum got interrupted when people started just to refer to it as a diet food,” Ross says. “It started to become a little bit less dynamic, less vibrant, and it sort of took on a bit of a drag. I mean, who wants a diet food, right?”

That perception helped slow momentum even as the underlying product stayed consistent.

A New Generation of Buyers

More recently, growth has come from consumers who do not have those older associations with the product. They are not seeing it as a legacy diet food. Instead, they are discovering a high protein, versatile ingredient.

“A whole new generation of consumers came along and discovered it on its own and they were like, ‘Whoa, this is not some diet food that needed to be retired. This was something that was pretty fantastic,’” Ross says.

Social media helped bring attention back to the category, but Ross is clear that it worked because the product itself could stand up to that exposure.

“We can all say at times that social media is both a blessing and a burden, but the blessing side of it really led to people being able to put out the good word about cottage cheese,” Ross says. “It really tied in nicely to the fact that people love to create, and they love to create with food, and cottage cheese fit into that perfectly.”

And at the core, he says, the product had to deliver on its own.

“If cottage cheese were a bust, meaning if the product weren’t as good as it really is, nobody would care. It wouldn’t have the sticking power. But the influencers came along and took a message and amplified it. The product itself really allowed the influencers to stick the landing, so to speak,” he adds.

Changes in Packaging and Use

Most of the recent changes in cottage cheese have been around packaging and use, not the basic product.

Ross argues there is still significant headroom.

“The surface has really just been barely scratched with where cottage innovation can go,” Ross says

So far, development has centered on convenience and usage occasions, including single serve cups, mix ins and dip style products.

“Some of the low hanging fruit, no pun intended, is some of the fruits and some of the savory options. You’re really giving consumers there a benefit around convenience,” he adds.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Hood (@hphood)

That early innovation is showing up in fairly straightforward ways aimed at convenience and everyday use.

“You’ve got a variety of single serve options, just some straight in the cup, some with side compartments where you can maybe scoop in some fruit or some savory items or something crunchy, and then you also begin to see some dip extension with cottage cheese dips,” he says.

As interest has grown, brands have had to reintroduce basic product use cases to new consumers in a simple, straightforward way. Even as companies lean into grab and go formats, there is still a balance between convenience and customization.

“One of the things that consumers like about cottage cheese is the fact that they can create anything on their own,” Ross says. “So, while they like the notion of grab and go, the idea of convenience sort of rubs up against the idea of, ‘Hey, I like to make things on my own with cottage cheese.’”

Strong Retail Demand, But Tight Supply

Within HP Hood’s portfolio, cottage cheese has become a core growth category rather than a niche, according to Ross.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Hood (@hphood)

“It is one of our core product areas, and really it’s fundamental to really the Hood brand itself,” he says.

At retail, it plays a central role in how the brand positions itself in the dairy case.

“We very much look at cottage cheese as our star with retailers,” he says. “It really has become a bit of an anchor, and really that foundational jumping off point for the Hood brand itself.”

That strength, however, has created a more immediate operational challenge.

“Like everybody else, it’s a good problem to have,” Ross says. “We just can’t keep up with demand.”

Behind the numbers, the category looks less like a one-off viral spike and more like a rebuilt demand curve, shaped by shifting perception, amplified by social media and reinforced by steady product performance.

Carving a New Path: How Wisconsin Native Transforms Cheddar into a Canvas for Dairy Advocacy

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 17:01:01 GMT

Most people look at a 40 lb. block of cheddar and see an ingredient. Vicki Janisch sees a canvas and a way to stay rooted in dairy, even after her family stepped away from milking cows.

In the last few years, the Wisconsin native has built a one‑of‑a‑kind career as a professional cheese carver. Her work has shown up at weddings, college sports announcements, major dairy events and even tied into the NFL Draft.

But if you ask her, it’s less about the spotlight and more about staying connected to the industry that shaped her.

The Day Carving Found Her

The idea first took shape during a normal day at the office. Janisch was working at Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin when Sarah Kaufmann, a skilled cheese carver from California, stopped in to carve for a project.

Curious about how it all worked, Janisch asked if she could come over and see the process for herself. Watching the carving up close stopped her in her tracks. Seeing the tools, the technique and the transformation from a simple block of cheese into a detailed sculpture lit a spark inside her that she couldn’t quite shake.

“I fan girled hard,” Janisch says with a laugh. “I was just in awe of what she could do and what she starts with. I thought, ‘This is the coolest thing ever! You get to carve cheese?’ I mean, cheese already tastes good, but now you get to put your artistic spin on it. That’s sounds like the best job in the world.”

Watching Kaufmann work, Janisch began asking all sorts of questions: What tools do you use? What cheese do you use? How do you turn this into a business?

After a steady stream of questions, Kaufmann smiled and offered a simple solution.

“[Sarah] goes, ‘Well, why don’t you come and carve with me tomorrow?’” Janisch recalls. “It was my birthday, and I had already taken the day off. So, I thought, ‘Yeah, why not? I’ll go.’”

The next day, Janisch spent several hours carving alongside Kaufmann and quickly realized how absorbing the craft could be.

“You can really lose track of time when you’re doing it,” Janisch says. “It’s such a fun medium to work with, and I loved just getting the chance to try it for myself.”

That night, she went home and ordered her own tools.

“I didn’t really tell anybody that I was doing it,” Janisch laughs. “I just wanted to carve for fun. I ordered some clay carving tools off Amazon and played around with some cheese I had in the fridge. I had no idea it was going to escalate as quickly as it did.”

(Photo Provided By Vicki Janisch)

A Carving Career Takes Shape

After that first experience, carving became something she kept returning to. Before long, friends and family started to hear about her new hobby. One of those conversations turned into an unexpected opportunity.

“A friend of mine came to me and said, ‘Hey, I know you’ve been doing this. Do you want to do my niece’s wedding? Would you be up for making a cheese wedding cake?’” Janisch remembers. “And I’m like, as my first project, this sounds awesome. But I have no idea what I’m doing.”

After saying yes, she sourced a 40 lb. block of cheddar and some wheels and built a tiered cheese “cake.” The display quickly became a major hit with guests and showed Janisch just how much excitement a carved cheese centerpiece could bring to an event.

(Vicki Janisch)

“As things kind of progressed and friends and families started hearing what I did, I started to get more requests,” Janisch says. “It was all through word of mouth, and the list of projects continued to grow.”

As more projects came her way, Janisch’s late-night hobby grew into something bigger, and with it came a larger time commitment. After a while, it became clear if Janisch wanted to keep carving, she would need to make some changes.

A Leap of Faith and an LLC

“Two years ago, I made a big leap of faith and decided I needed to change my routine,” Janisch says. “I have two really active kids who I wanted to spend more time with, and I was ready to create a new path for myself.”

After some reflection, Janisch left her 9-to-5 job to launch her own business, Janisch Creative, where she works as a creative and digital communications director. That change gave her the flexibility she needed while staying connected to communications, and her cheese carving business became the creative outlet that balanced everything else.

Originally, when she made the big jump, she promised her husband the cheese carving projects would stay small. But now, she jokes her definition of small has changed.

“I told him, ‘It won’t get out of hand.’ But I think our perspective of small keeps changing,” she laughs. “But it’s been so fun doing all of this as a family. Having my kids around to see what their mom can do has been pretty cool.”

(Vicki Janisch)

Respect for the Product

Janisch now runs her cheese carving business with a producer’s mindset: Respect the product, respect the people behind it and don’t waste what they’ve made.

“When you think about the craftsmanship that goes into cheese, it’s already so good on its own,” she says. “And then I’m blessed to be able to put my creative spin and artistic stamp on it.”

But it also means she has to carefully manage the product to keep the cheese fresh. That started with her first business purchase.

“My first business expense was a refrigerator,” she laughs. “Most Midwesterners have a beer fridge. We have a cheese fridge, and it’s stacked with insane amounts of cheese just waiting to be carved.”

While carving the cheese, she also had to figure out what to do with the scraps. It was her firm belief nothing should go to waste.

(Vicki Janisch)

“When I’m carving for an event, I’ll box up some of the scraps for people to eat on a charcuterie board or for the company to utilize,” she says. “But if I’m doing a living carving, those scraps can’t be eaten. So, I bring them back home and feed them to my chickens.”

Of course, mistakes still happen, and sometimes a piece of the sculpture doesn’t turn out as planned. Luckily, the cheese makes for a tasty medium to work with.

“If I mess up, we eat it,” she laughs. “There is no waste. We just have grilled cheese for a month.”

As her carving career continues to grow, Janisch has made a point to stay connected to the local cheese crafters who inspire part of her work.

“I’ve made it a really solid goal to work with cheese companies in Wisconsin,” she says. “I worked with over 20 cheese companies last year, and I’ve gotten to form personal relationships with those who are making the cheese.”

Those relationships have also helped her learn an important lesson. When it comes to carving, the type of cheese matters just as much as the design.

(Vicki Janisch)

Her Favorites

Even after years of experience, not every cheese behaves the same. Different textures and inclusions means Janisch has to adjust her approach.

“There are some cheeses that are more difficult to work with than others, but I just have to adjust how I handle it,” she says. “The tools I use are different for different cheeses. For some of the flavored cheeses, like pepper jack, where there’s items mixed in, you have to handle things differently.”

That’s where her relationships with Wisconsin cheese makers becomes critical. Texture, moisture and aging all influence whether a design holds its shape or begins to crumble.

“Cheese makers can make low moisture and aged cheeses. But if they’re aged too long, they don’t work as well for carving,” she explains. “I’ve found my sweet spot is usually a 90-day aged cheddar.”

Having conversations with cheese makers allows her to plan each project with the right product from the start.

“Because these cheese makers have it so dialed in, we can talk the science behind the cheese that I need. I’m not having to source just a random block of cheddar. I can go and find cheeses that I know are going to hold up for the project.”

Fortunately, Janisch has yet to meet a cheese she doesn’t like and is willing to give just about anything a try.

“Blue cheese is on my bucket list,” she laughs. “But I don’t think I’m ready to chase after it just yet.”

Over time, finding her favorites has become less about a single variety and more about matching the right cheese to the right project. Whatever the choice, she’s thinking about both the carver and the consumer.

(Vicki Janisch)

Connecting Farmers, Cheese and Consumers

While cheese carving has become a new adventure for Janisch, her connection to the dairy industry runs deep. She grew up on her family’s dairy farm in southern Wisconsin, participating in 4‑H and showing animals at local fairs. That hands‑on experience and dirty‑boot roots instilled in her a natural sense of advocacy and a pride in the industry that now helps her connect with consumers through her cheese carving.

“I love having the opportunity to tie it back to the farmers,” she says. “Growing up on a dairy farm, I understand that once you ship milk, it becomes products like cheese. But a lot of times, farmers don’t talk about what happens after that.”

For Janisch, that connection between the farm and the finished product is an important part of the story she hopes her work helps tell.

“Consumers want to know that they’re supporting dairy farmers, and they do that through the products those farmers help produce. I can talk to consumers about the farmers, the cheese and the cheese makers,” Janisch explains. “It’s one thing to be able to talk about cheese carving, but I’m able to tell more of the dairy story when I go to some of these events.

Her role, as she sees it, is to bridge the gap between the people who make the milk and the people who enjoy the finished product. And even though her family no longer milks cows every day, Janisch says cheese carving keeps her anchored to a larger purpose.

“This lets me be part of something bigger than myself,” she says. “When we were dairy farming, it wasn’t just about our farm, it was part of a larger story. Cheese carving helps me stay connected to that.”

(Photos Provided By Vicki Janisch)

Craft and Connection

Today, when Janisch picks up her carving tools, she’s doing more than shaping cheese — she’s celebrating the craftsmanship behind the product and the farmers who make it possible.

Her client list now reads like a seasoned professional’s portfolio rather than a hobbyist’s. Some of her standout creations include:

The Lombardi Trophy for the 2025 NFL Draft
The University of Wisconsin Men’s Basketball schedule
Musical notes for events at the Grammys
Showpieces for state food festivals
Custom carvings for major industry events

What began as curiosity has grown into a creative way to stay connected to the industry that shaped her.

“I never would have imagined that any of this was possible,” Janisch says. “But I leaned into the power of saying ‘yes.’ And it’s been the most amazing journey.”

And with every block of cheese she transforms into something special, Janisch knows she’s helping tell a story that starts long before the carving ever begins.

Maker of Babybel Cheese Announces Major Expansion in South Dakota

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 21:37:14 GMT

Bel Group has broken ground on a $200 million expansion at its plant in Brookings, S.D., that will double production capacity for Mini Babybel cheese snacks and create about 150 new jobs.

According to the company, the project will increase production at the Brookings facility from about 1.6 million Babybel cheeses per day to more than 3 million once the expansion is complete.

Peter McGuinness, CEO of Bel Group’s North American division, says the investment is aimed at keeping pace with growing demand for convenient, protein-rich snacks in the U.S., which accounts for roughly one-third of the company’s sales.

“If we did not act now, we would be squandering growth and running up against capacity constraints,” McGuinness says.

Consumer interest in higher-protein foods has increased in recent years, a trend companies say has been accelerated by the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications such as Ozempic and Mounjaro.

“The product delivers on GLP-1 (needs),” McGuinness says. “We’re getting a definite impact from that.”

Bel sources milk for the Brookings facility from several dairy farms in the surrounding region. Company officials say the expansion will help ensure supply keeps pace with growing consumer demand for dairy-based snack products.

The company operates four manufacturing plants in the U.S. In addition to the Brookings project, Bel recently completed a $140 million expansion at its plant in Nampa, Idaho, which produces GoGo squeeZ yogurt products. McGuinness says the company is focused on growing internally but may eye acquisitions in the future if demand continues to rise.

Full-Fat Dairy Steps into the Spotlight in New Dietary Guidelines

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 18:16:18 GMT

For years, full-fat dairy had a target on its back, painting it out to be a food product consumers should avoid. Past dietary guidelines encouraged Americans to choose lower-fat or fat-free dairy whenever possible, which shaped how families shopped and how brands positioned their products.

But all of this changed dramatically earlier this year as new federal dietary guidelines formally embraced full-fat dairy as part of a healthy eating pattern.

According to Katie Brown, president of National Dairy Council, this change validates more than a century of farmer-funded research and opens the door to new opportunities across the dairy supply chain. She says this long‑awaited recognition is a chance for new opportunities for the entire dairy community, from the farm level to processors and brands.

Dairy Front and Center

During the release of the new dietary guidelines, several messages were established, with dairy ranking high on the list.

Eat the right amount for you
Prioritize protein foods at every meal
Consume dairy
Eat vegetables and fruits throughout the day
Incorporate healthy fats
Focus on whole grains
Limit highly processed foods, added sugars and refined carbohydrates
Limit alcoholic beverages

“When the guidelines came out, it was a pretty clear message: eat real food,” Brown says. “Dairy foods fit into that message perfectly.”

With dairy showing up in multiple parts of the guidelines — as an excellent source of protein, as a recommended food group and as part of the healthy fats conversation — Brown say it’s clear the guidelines recognize dairy’s versatility across several nutrition areas.

Full-Fat is Back

With changes to the healthy fats guidance, the new dietary guidelines now include dairy at all fat levels — something that hasn’t appeared in previous editions. Foods like whole milk, full‑fat yogurt and cheese are now recognized as options that can fit into a balanced diet.

“It’s a meaningful shift that gives consumers more choice and acknowledges the evolving research on dairy fat,” Brown says. “Dairy foods at all fat levels, including whole milk, full-fat yogurt and cheese are now included in the dairy food group in the dietary guidelines.”

Although the guidelines mark a change on paper, Brown notes consumer buying habits have been moving in this direction for a while.

“Nearly 50% of all milk sold in grocery stores is full-fat dairy,” Brown says. “Consumers are already there. It’s almost like the guidelines are catching up with what consumers know, like, trust and are doing.”

She adds taste has been a major driver.

“Now, the science is aligning with that preference in a way that reinforces dairy’s value, not just its taste. It’s about nutrition, flexibility and choice,” Brown says.

Opportunities for Farmers and Processors

With consumers seeking real, minimally processed foods with simple ingredient lists, full-fat dairy checks off several criteria in the dietary guidelines. Brown describes it as the “perfect trifecta,” offering high-quality protein, healthy fats and a wholesome, real-food option.

This shift also opens doors for marketing, as brands look for ways to highlight the benefits of full-fat dairy. Major consumer packaged goods companies are exploring how to leverage the updated guidelines to promote dairy products and connect with changing consumer preferences.

“Brands have been reaching out to understand how they can communicate the updated guidance,” Brown says. “They see it as an opportunity to highlight the positive news for dairy.”

On the processor side, Brown says the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy includes more than 70% of dairy brands and companies. A new chapter focused on milk and full-fat dairy is being added to the industry playbook to help companies develop marketing and product innovation strategies that reflect the latest research and updated dietary guidelines.

The center’s health and well-being committee focuses on opportunities in areas such as maternal and child health, gut health, heart health and metabolic health. By translating new nutrition research into products and messaging, the group helps processors meet consumer demand for healthy, real-food options.

“We’ve put together messages that are backed by science and have also been tested by consumers,” Brown adds. “And we know they resonate.”

A Century of Science Pays Off

Brown is quick to point out including full-fat dairy in the new dietary guidelines didn’t happen overnight. It reflects a long-term commitment by dairy farmers to nutrition science.

“For more than 100 years, dairy farmers have invested in research,” she adds. “Few food categories have the same depth of science supporting the health and wellness benefits of dairy foods.”

She credits both dairy farmers and scientific leaders, including former chief science officer Greg Miller, PhD for recognizing the potential of full-fat dairy early and supporting the research behind it.

“Checkoff has funded 80 studies on full-fat dairy, milk and other dairy foods, which in turn have inspired more than 600 additional studies by independent researchers,” Brown says. “Together, this creates a large body of evidence that helped inform the updated guidelines, and it’s a reflection of the strength of the science.”

That research provided a broader view of dairy, emphasizing its overall nutritional value rather than focusing solely on fat content.

“Guidelines of the past probably over indexed on restriction, often emphasizing what to limit rather than what to include,” Brown notes. “What the science has shifted and shown us along the way is that there’s so many health and wellness benefits to embracing a diet that includes nutrient-rich foods like dairy foods at all fat levels.”

With the science and guidelines now aligned, consumers have more dairy choices across a range of fat levels, setting the stage for dairy to play a central role in the real food movement — delivering taste, tradition and real health benefits in every glass, cup and slice.

U.S. Dairy Exports Surge to $9.51 Billion in 2025

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 17:50:01 GMT

The U.S. dairy industry closed 2025 just shy of an all-time export record, signaling strong global demand and growing diversification across international markets.

According to calendar year 2025 data released by USDA, U.S. dairy exports reached $9.51 billion, narrowly missing the record $9.54 billion set in 2022. That total is up 15% from 2024, showing how U.S. dairy continues to gain ground in global markets.

In addition to higher value, export volumes also increased. According to the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), U.S. dairy exports totaled 2.8 million metric tons in 2025, up 5% from the previous year. Growth was driven largely by expanding demand in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and South America, regions that are playing an increasing role in strengthening and diversifying U.S. dairy exports.

“This near-record year demonstrates that U.S. dairy exporters are succeeding in diversifying both markets and product portfolios,” says Michael Dykes, IDFA president and CEO. “Growth across North Africa, South Asia, the Middle East, South America and the European Union reflects a deliberate strategy to reduce concentration risk, deepen customer relationships and compete in emerging and established markets alike. Today, U.S. dairy exports reach 143 countries, and our product mix spans consumer-ready foods, high-value ingredients and specialized nutrition products — a level of diversification that strengthens long-term export resilience.”

Regional Growth Highlights

Export growth in 2025 was broad-based, with several regions posting double- and even triple-digit gains. The following breakdown from IDFA highlights how U.S. dairy exports performed by region:

North Africa — Exports surged 107% by value and 69% by volume, reflecting accelerating demand across the region.
Middle East — Exports grew 48% by value and 19% by volume, driven largely by processed cheese, sweetened milk powder, whey protein powder and concentrate, lactose and natural milk products.
South Asia — Exports grew 63% by value and 25% by volume, led by strong growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. U.S. dairy exports to India alone increased 71% by value and 31% by volume.
South America — Exports grew 14% by value and 7% by volume.
Central America — Exports grew 19% by value and 13% by volume.
North America — Exports grew 6% by value and 2% by volume.
East Asia — Exports grew 14% by value and 2% by volume.
European Union — Exports increased 61% by value and 69% by volume.
Sub-Saharan Africa — Exports grew 9% by value.

Higher-Fat Products Help Drive Momentum

Demand for higher-fat dairy products saw a sharp increase in 2025, contributing to overall growth in U.S. dairy exports. Global export volumes rose by approximately 165% for butter and milk fat and by 56% for whole milk powders, reflecting shifts in global purchasing patterns and increased use of these products in both consumer foods and food manufacturing.

Several other categories also posted solid gains. Dairy spreads, whey protein concentrates and cheese were among the stronger-performing products, indicating continued demand for both value-added ingredients and consumer-ready dairy products across a range of markets.

Combined with broader regional growth, higher export volumes and near-record export value, U.S. dairy continues to expand its role in international markets.

“Looking ahead, our industry is poised for even greater growth,” Dykes says. “A renewed trade agenda that expands market access, strengthens enforcement and opens new opportunities in Southeast Asia, Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East will allow U.S. dairy exporters to compete and win in markets around the globe.”

With momentum already built in 2025, the outlook for 2026 points toward continued export gains fueled by expanding opportunities.

USDA to Buy $148 Million in Dairy Products, But Will it be a Major Market Mover?

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 19:14:47 GMT

USDA is helping create an additional outlet for milk, cheese and butter by purchasing millions of dollars’ worth of dairy products for food banks and federal nutrition programs.

In a recent announcement, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins shared USDA’s plans to purchase up to $263 million in agricultural products through the department’s Section 32 authority under the Agriculture Act of 1935. Of that total, nearly $148 million is earmarked specifically for dairy products, including butter, cheese and milk.

“These staples are essential for feeding families and sustaining America’s agricultural economy,” Rollins says, emphasizing the purchases are designed to deliver real food to Americans while injecting dollars back into rural communities.

The move by USDA closely aligns with a formal request made by the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) late last year.

“These are almost exactly the numbers that we sent [in] a request to the Secretary on Nov. 25,” says Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF, during an interview with “AgriTalk” host, Chip Flory. “We ran our analysis, suggested what we thought aligned with USDA’s historical dairy Section 32 purchases, and USDA agreed and announced it this morning.”

What’s Included for Dairy

According to USDA, the planned dairy purchases will include:

Butter: $75 million
Cheddar cheese and cheese products: $32.5 million
Swiss cheese: $10 million
Fresh fluid milk: $20.5 million
Ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk: $10 million

For dairy farmers, the purchases could help absorb product during periods of tight margins and volatile milk prices.

“Dairy farmers have shared in the struggles faced throughout the agricultural economy, and these purchases will provide important relief to producers who will benefit from the additional demand, helping them provide nutritious dairy products to Americans and the world,” Doud says.

He notes NMPF has been particularly focused on the butter market, where supply and demand have been misaligned.

“We were especially looking at the butter market,” he says. “Right now, we’re looking for any demand under any rock we can find in the dairy business.”

Rollins emphasized the purchases are designed to support not only dairy farmers, but also the broader network of jobs tied to dairy production.

“These Section 32 purchases help stabilize farm income while supporting rural jobs tied to dairy processing, transportation and manufacturing,” Rollins says. “By turning farm production into meals, we’re supporting the farmers who feed America.”

Market Impact: Helpful, But Not A Game-Changer

While these new purchases made by USDA will help provide support, Phil Plourd, head of market intelligence for Ever.Ag, notes the impact on prices could be modest in scale.

“This is one of the ways that low prices can work to cure low prices,” Plourd says. “Without the details — especially on timing — it’s difficult to offer much specific commentary on potential price impact. At first blush, the commitment to buy butter seems substantial. Based on recent solicitations and purchases, we’d guess that the $32.5 million for cheddar cheese and cheese products might buy about 18 million pounds. That’s not nothing, but if our math is accurate, it’s only about 5% of one month’s worth of U.S. output and less than 1% of annual production. But, the bottom line is straightforward: $148 million in additional dairy purchases counts as supportive.”

Doud echoes that view, noting while the purchases won’t transform markets overnight, they do provide meaningful support — especially for butter and cheese.

“148 million isn’t anything that’s going to be a huge market mover, but it certainly helps, especially on the butter side of the equation,” he says.

Ben Laine, senior dairy analyst at Terrain, adds that even though the purchase won’t dramatically shift markets, it should be positive news for prices.

“The purchase announcement should be favorable for milk prices,” Laine says. “We’re starting the year in an oversupplied situation, and most of the positivity in dairy markets so far has been around nonfat dry milk and whey. Support for butter and cheese in particular through these purchases should help round things out and provide more strength to milk prices.”

In the global dairy sector, Doud says signals from the international dairy market are starting to improve, offering more support for prices.

“The good news is we’re seeing these markets — dairy markets, butter markets and cheese markets in Europe — begin to turn around here a little bit,” Doud says. “The world market’s starting to turn, and every little bit helps in this kind of environment.”

That comes against the backdrop of robust U.S. dairy exports.

“The year-end trade numbers came out today, and U.S. dairy exports were tied for an all-time record at $9.5 billion, ” Doud notes. “U.S. dairy is the third-biggest ag exporter, behind corn and soybeans. We had a really good year in exports. We did really, really well in 2025 on cheese exports, an all-time record by a country mile.”

That strong export base, combined with USDA’s planned purchases, contributes to a steadier overall demand picture, with international buyers drawing product abroad and federal programs taking in additional volumes domestically.

How Section 32 Works

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) purchases domestic agricultural products when market conditions call for extra support. The products are then distributed through nutrition programs run by USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS), including food banks participating in The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP).

For dairy processors, these purchases often mean larger orders for products like butter and cheese, which can indirectly help support farm-level milk demand. Historically, Section 32 has acted as a pressure valve for farmers during periods of oversupply or weak commercial demand, moving dairy out of commercial markets and into programs that feed families while keeping milk flowing off farms.

Broader Ag impact

In addition to dairy, USDA plans to purchase fruits, legumes and tree nuts, including:

Chickpeas: $12 million
Dried Beans (Black and Pinto): $25 million
Fresh Pears: $15 million
Lentils: $14 million
Pecans: $10 million
Split Peas: $24 million
Walnuts: $15 million

USDA says the combination of products helps strengthen the nation’s food safety net while reinforcing agriculture’s role in economic resilience.

With this action, the Trump administration says it is aiming to bolster American agriculture, support rural communities and ensure families in need have access to nutritious, domestically produced food.

New U.S.-Argentina Trade Deal Opens Door for Dairy Exports

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 16:40:24 GMT

A newly signed trade agreement between the U.S. and Argentina is creating new opportunities for U.S. dairy exports, with industry leaders pointing to meaningful progress on both tariff reductions and long-standing trade barriers.

The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and Consortium for Common Food Names (CCFN) welcomed the U.S.-Argentina Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment, finalized Feb. 5. The agreement includes specific provisions aimed at improving market access for U.S. dairy products while protecting the use of common food names that have become a growing point of contention in global trade.

As part of the deal, Argentina committed to eliminating tariffs that currently reach as high as 28% on select dairy products, including milk powders, dairy proteins, lactose and other dairy ingredients. The agreement also establishes a 1,000-metric-ton quota for certain U.S. cheeses entering the Argentine market.

In addition to tariff relief, the agreement addresses nontariff barriers that can complicate exports. Argentina agreed not to impose processing facility registration requirements on U.S. dairy plants and to provide explicit protections for 39 common cheese names, including Parmesan.

“The commitments secured in the U.S.-Argentina reciprocal trade deal bring new, real opportunities for our dairy exports to South America,” says Krysta Harden, USDEC president and CEO. “USDEC appreciates USTR’s (U.S. trade representative’s) hard work in securing agreements that lower tariffs and meaningfully address nontariff barriers, particularly those to protect common cheese names. We look forward to building our market presence in Argentina as the agreement is implemented.”

Beyond tariff and market‑access details, industry organizations say trade agreements such as this one can shape broader market conditions, including milk demand and longer‑term stability.

“Trade deals like this bring dairy farmers promise for the future,” says Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “Dairy farms operate 365 days a year, and the U.S. negotiating team is keeping pace to secure new market access. NMPF will continue to work with the Administration as all the reciprocal trade agreements are translated into real results on the ground for our farmers.”

Protection of common cheese names was also a central priority for CCFN, especially as the European Union continues to pursue trade agreements that seek to restrict the use of terms U.S. producers consider generic.

“Argentina’s commitment to protect 39 common cheese names and 10 generic meat terms could not have come at a more important time,” says Jaime Castaneda, CCFN executive director. “As the European Union is advancing toward implementation of its trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of countries, our ability to use common names is increasingly at risk. We cannot thank Ambassador (Jamieson) Greer and the USTR negotiating team enough for the foresight and leadership in protecting U.S. exporters’ rights.”

The Argentina agreement follows recent reciprocal trade deals the U.S. signed with El Salvador and Guatemala that also include commitments to prevent barriers to U.S. dairy exports.

Has Pizza Reached its Peak?

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 21:33:21 GMT

Pizza has long been a steady driver of cheese demand in the U.S., but recent data suggests growth in the category has slowed. After expanding for much of the past two decades, the number of pizza restaurants has flattened, and per capita cheese consumption has followed a similar pattern.

“The number of pizza restaurants in the United States, after surging at various points over the past 20 years, has really flattened out over the past four,” says Phil Plourd, head of market intelligence for Ever.Ag, during the 2026 Dairy Market Outlook: Trends, Risks, and What Comes Next webinar. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence that our rolling measure of per capita cheese use has flattened out over the same period.”

For years, growth in pizza restaurants coincided with rising cheese consumption. That relationship now appears to be stabilizing.

“So, all this pizza restaurant growth we saw was concurrent with per capita cheese consumption increases,” Plourd says. “Now have we kind of hit ‘mature’ with pizza?”

Signs of a More Mature Pizza Market

That question is being raised across the restaurant industry as well. According to The Wall Street Journal, analysts are debating whether the U.S. has reached peak pizza. Once the second-most common restaurant type in the country, pizzerias are now outnumbered by coffee shops and Mexican food restaurants. Pizza sales growth has also lagged in the broader fast-food category for several years, and expectations for near-term growth remain limited.

At the same time, pizza remains a significant part of the U.S. foodservice market. Reports indicate pizza chains generated about $31 billion in restaurant sales in 2024, according to market‑research firm Technomic. On any given day, roughly one in 10 Americans eats a slice of pizza, based on USDA estimates, with younger consumers accounting for a large share of that demand.

However, pizza’s relative position within the restaurant industry has declined. Among different cuisines, pizza ranked sixth in U.S. sales among restaurant chains in 2024, down from second place in the 1990s, according to Technomic. Data from Datassential shows the number of pizza restaurants in the U.S. reached a record high in 2019 and has declined since then.

Competition, Cost and Saturation

Several factors could be contributing to the slowdown. One is increased competition in food delivery.

“In a world where we can pick up our phone and order just about any food into our house from just about anywhere with four button pushes, that used to be pizza’s domain,” Plourd says. “Pizza owned that space for a long time. Well, in a world of DoorDash and other services, there’s competition.”

Price has also become a consideration.

“I think pizza has kind of gotten expensive in the post-COVID era,” Plourd adds.

Another factor is saturation. Pizza is widely available across the country, including in rural areas that once had limited access.

“The other thing is that there’s nowhere in America today where you can’t get a hot pie,” Plourd says.

He points to Casey’s as an example. The convenience store chain now has close to 3,000 locations, roughly double its footprint in 2010, and sells about 40 million pizzas per year. About 66% of Casey’s stores are located in towns with populations of 20,000 or fewer.

“For places where you’d previously have to go 50 or 100 miles to get a pizza, now the Casey’s is right there downtown,” Plourd says. “We give Casey’s credit for bringing pizza to rural America. But now it’s quite possible that there’s nowhere else to take it.”

That saturation helps explain why per capita cheese consumption has leveled off alongside pizza restaurant growth. Pizza remains a major driver of mozzarella demand, but without continued expansion in locations or sales, growth tied to pizza has slowed.

Looking ahead, Plourd sees more opportunity outside the U.S.

“The good news here is that the Koreans and the Japanese, there’s space for growth pizza-wise outside the country,” he says.

While pizza continues to play an important role in U.S. foodservice and dairy demand, current trends suggest the category has reached a more mature phase, with future growth likely to be incremental rather than expansive.

Protein Demand Pushes Growth in the Dairy Case

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:48:05 GMT

Health conversations look a lot different than they did a decade ago, and convenience matters more than ever. Still, through all that change, dairy continues to hold its place in the American diet.

According to USDA’s Economic Research Service and the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) , Americans consumed 651 lb. of dairy products per person on a milk-equivalent, milk fat basis in 2024. While overall consumption hasn’t changed much, the types of dairy products people are choosing show how tastes are shifting.

Protein Is in the Driver’s Seat

Once dismissed as old-fashioned, yogurt and cottage cheese are winning over shoppers who want quick, protein-packed options. Driven by demand for protein-rich foods that fit easily into busy schedules, yogurt consumption climbed to 14.5 lb. per person, up 6% from the year before and nearly 60% higher than it was 20 years ago.

(IDFA)

Cottage cheese saw an even bigger jump, rising more than 14% year-over-year to 2.4 lb. per person, the highest level since 2009.

(IDFA)

Butter is Back

(IDFA)

Butter also saw a hefty comeback. After years of being pushed aside by low-fat trends, butter has found its way back onto American plates as attitudes around fat have changed. Many consumers now see butter as a simpler, more natural option compared with heavily processed spreads, and they’re more comfortable cooking and baking with whole fats again.

That shift helped push butter consumption to a record 6.8 lb. per person in 2024, more than 20% higher than a decade ago. It also reflects how consumers are drawn to foods with simple ingredients that feel familiar and real.

Cheese Holds its Place

(IDFA)

Cheese remains a steady favorite. Total consumption stayed at 41.9 lb. per person in 2024, the same as in 2023. However, IDFA’s The Dairy Bar, a biweekly report from partner Ever.Ag, points out that this is a big change from the mid-1970s when Americans were eating less than 20 lb. per person each year.

Milk Sees a Slight Dip

(IDFA)

Fluid milk, which has seen steady declines over the years, showed signs of leveling off in 2024. Intake held steady from 2023 at 127 lb. per person. That’s still well below the 247 lb. per person Americans drank in 1975, but the steady numbers show that milk continues to have a place in the diet. According to Ever.ag, many households keep milk on hand for cereal, coffee, cooking and baking. It might not dominate the fridge like it once did, but it remains a reliable choice for everyday meals and snacks.

Ice Cream Still Delights

(IDFA)

Ice cream offered a small bright spot on the indulgence side of the category. Consumption ticked up slightly to 12 lb. per person, showing that even with health in focus, people still enjoy comfort foods. This modest increase shows treats still matter to consumers because they deliver emotional satisfaction. High-protein ice cream is also catching on, giving people a way to enjoy dessert while keeping an eye on nutrition.

Dairy Keeps Its Place

Even as people focus more on health and protein, dairy remains a part of everyday life. Yogurt, cottage cheese and high-protein treats are growing in popularity, while classics like butter, cheese and milk continue to hold steady. Dairy is showing that it can be both practical and enjoyable, giving consumers options for meals, snacks and the occasional indulgence.

Dairy Markets Face Winter Blues: Will Inventory Data Spark Demand for Butter, Cheese and Cream?

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 17:08:45 GMT

As the festive season winds down and the last of the holiday baking is complete, U.S. dairy markets find themselves at a critical juncture, pondering their next move.

While demand for butter, cream, and cheese typically surges in the weeks leading up to the holidays, leaving retail scrambling for spot loads, the post-holiday landscape is shrouded in uncertainty. This comes after a year where dairy markets struggled to find positive momentum, intensified by a recent data vacuum from the USDA, which left industry players eagerly awaiting the next cold storage report to shed light on true inventory levels and potential price direction.

The difficult thing about the timing of answering that question is that the USDA has been slow to release data since the government shutdown. We can see the trend with milk production; we can see the spot loads trading, but recently all we had for information regarding stocks is a cold storage report that was several months old. Fortunately, USDA released its latest cold storage report Dec. 23 , the first since September’s release of data from August.

In August, cheese inventories were down slightly from the previous report but higher than the previous year. Butter, on the other hand, was 8% lower in both the previous month as well as 6% lower than the previous year. August was a long time ago, and a long time for the market to question what its inventory truly was.

Due to the tighter inventory, butter spent the week after September’s cold storage report rallying but it was short-lived. The market had continued the steady path of decline from the highs set back in July. Cheese had a similar fate with highs peaking in June and falling on a bumpy path to the lows set earlier this month. While the last couple weeks have been more friendly, the markets still have a long way to go to reach the highs we saw this summer.

Plants are currently running at full capacity with the abundance of cream available, however now that the holidays are nearly past us, it is anticipated that production will be reduced and we will begin building stock. Cream supplies have been plentiful with the most recent demand based in the retail market. However, what we are gaining for demand in retail has been offset by the struggling food service demand. Traders are mixed on their opinions about what inventory is on hand.

What information we have received is that milk production numbers are up year over year. The November milk production report, released Dec. 22, had milk production at 18,790 million pounds, up 4.5% from the previous year.

What is not being talked about is the sharp decline in milk production from last month’s report to this month. The USDA pegs the November milk production 665 million pounds less than October. That is 3.4% lower milk production in just one month’s time, the lowest production we have seen since February.

While it is seasonally on trend for winter production to decline, the pace at which production has dropped off begs the question of whether this trend will continue into late winter.

If milk production falls dramatically in the coming months, the importance of the data released with the latest cold storage report is increased. Should we find stocks low on top of the trailing production, it could be the catalyst to finally help prices. While this is grasping at bullish straws, it is still important to remember that while milk production has fallen from the spring and summer highs, we are still well above production from 2024 and have been for most of the year.

Your Next Read: U.S. Milk Production Surges 4.7% in November as Dairy Herd Expands

Is Dairy Headed Into Another Down Year?

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 18:04:22 GMT

Milk prices remain flat heading into 2026, with no clear sign of a sustained recovery as strong supplies keep buyers on the sidelines.
Milk production continues to climb, driven by larger herds, higher output per cow and incentives from strong beef-on-dairy calf prices.
Demand is steady but not strong enough to significantly reduce inventories, keeping pressure on margins despite solid cheese and butter exports.

Dairy producers don’t need a futures chart to know conditions are challenging. Milk prices have leveled off, margins remain tight and the outlook offers little sign of quick improvement. According to dairy analyst Robin Schmahl of AgMarket.net, the industry is likely heading into another tough year without a clear driver for stronger prices.

Looking at the price structure, Schmahl says the market is basically flat out through the first quarter of 2026. What troubles him most is not just the level of prices but the lack of urgency from buyers.

“The buyers of cheese, buyers of butter and dairy products are not concerned about supplies,” he says. “So, they don’t have to be aggressive. They can just wait. That’s the bottom line.”

Milk supplies are abundant, and that’s weighing heavily on prices. Production continues to climb, with more cows in the herd and higher output per cow, leaving the market well-stocked and buyers in no rush to secure more milk.

“On the last milk production report, we’re running 3.7% higher than the previous year,” Schmahl notes. “We’ve got over 200,000 more cows, and those cows are producing around 20 lb. of milk more than last year. We have a lot of milk.”

Demand is Good, But Not Good Enough

On the demand side, the picture is more complicated. Cheese and butter markets have held steady and exports are providing some support, especially with U.S. prices remaining competitive globally.

However, even with these positives, demand isn’t strong enough to make a meaningful dent in the large milk surplus. Domestic consumption is steady rather than growing, and while exports help, they can’t fully absorb the extra supply that continues to build.

“Cheese demand has been steady and even picked up a little,” Schmahl says. “International demand is very strong and holding well, largely because U.S. prices remain lower than world prices.”

Butter tells a similar story.

“Butter plants are running seven days a week,” Schmahl adds. “Cream supplies are very large, and world butter prices are about a dollar higher than U.S. prices. That price gap has fueled strong butter exports.”

However, global signals aren’t offering much optimism. The Global Dairy Trade auction, which tracks international dairy prices, dropped another 4.4% in its latest update. That’s the ninth decline in a row, showing buyers around the world are pulling back. This means lower global prices make it harder to sell milk overseas and harder for the domestic market to work through the extra supply.

Even positive developments, like the return of whole milk to school lunch programs, are unlikely to be game changers near term. Still, Schmahl calls it “real positive news,” noting that when whole and 2% milk were removed in 2012, “consumption in the schools went down because students didn’t like the skim and 1%.”

“It’s looking like it will be a lower year price wise,” Schmahl adds. “Demand exists, but not at levels that can chew through inventories and turn the price tide.”

Why are Butterfat Premiums Disappearing?

Processors are changing their priorities when it comes to milk components. For years, farmers focused on breeding and feeding strategies to boost butterfat because it was in high demand and paid well. Now, processors are pulling back, and the premiums for higher butterfat have all but disappeared.

“We’ve seen record butterfat production for about a year,” Schmahl says. “For a long time, processors encouraged higher fat levels. Now they’re capping it — anything over 4.5% they’re not going to pay for.”

This cap affects producers who have invested in genetics, crossbreeding and feed strategies to increase milk components.

“What producers have worked toward for years is now becoming a disadvantage,” Schmahl says. “It seems like processors expect cows to adjust instantly, but that’s not realistic.”

This change takes away one of the few tools producers had to earn more for their milk without increasing output.

Is Beef-on-Dairy Changing the Game?

Even though the market doesn’t need more milk, dairy cow numbers continue to see an increase. One reason is the growing beef-on-dairy trend, which has changed how producers make culling decisions. Strong calf prices have created an incentive for farmers to keep cows that might otherwise be culled.

“We do need more beef,” Schmahl adds. “That demand pushed calf prices higher, which in turn drove up heifer prices, so dairy farmers have started to think differently. Instead of buying a $4,000 replacement heifer, they could keep a cow that produces less milk, breed her to a beef sire and sell the calf for around $1,000. Plus, that cow will produce another calf down the road.”

He describes the beef-on-dairy trend as a modified Black Swan event. While it hasn’t appeared suddenly, it’s still unprecedented for the industry. Because there’s no historical model to draw from, analysts are finding it difficult to predict its long-term impact on herd management and milk supply.

That uncertainty is part of what makes the current cycle so tricky. As long as a 3-day-old beef-on-dairy calf can fetch $800 to $1,000, producers have a strong incentive to hang on to older, lower-producing cows. The result is elevated cow numbers that keep milk flowing even when milk price signals would traditionally force a contraction.

Risk Management in a Flat Dairy Market

Schmahl says the biggest risk many dairies are taking going into 2026 is doing nothing.

“Producers don’t want to do anything, because they think we’re at the low,” he says. “It may stay here for a little bit, but the upside potential is there. I’m concerned … about what could happen in the first quarter, or maybe first half of the year if our production trajectory follows what it is.”

On milk price protection, Schmahl favors options over DRP at current levels.

“I firmly believe that a put option strategy is the best way to go,” he said. “With Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP), you automatically give up about 5% of your insured price —usually around 80¢. That means your floor starts lower than the current market.”

By comparison, he says a well-structured option plan can keep your protection closer to today’s price. On inputs, Schmahl advocates taking advantage of relatively cheap corn and soybean meal.

“You’ve got a lot of year ahead — to just guess the market is not a good way to manage risk,” he adds.

Pressure Persists, Opportunities Remain

Looking ahead, 2026 is shaping up to be another challenging year for dairy. Milk supplies remain strong, and prices are expected to stay under pressure, leaving producers with tight margins. However, there are still some bright spots.

Export demand for cheese and butter continues to provide support, and U.S. prices remain competitive globally. Domestic programs, like the return of whole milk to school lunches, could help boost consumption over time.

While the market isn’t signaling a quick turnaround, disciplined risk management and careful planning can help producers navigate the year ahead and position themselves for opportunities when conditions improve.

Five Trends Shaping How Consumers See Cheese in 2026

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 21:23:16 GMT

As we head into 2026, the way people think about food continues to shift. Shoppers still want products they know and trust, but they also expect those foods to keep up with changing ideas around health, sustainability and enjoyment. According to Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, cheese sits in a unique place. It’s familiar and comforting, yet it’s also evolving in ways that align with what consumers are looking for next. These five trends outlined in the 2026 Wisconsin Cheese Trends Report help explain how cheese is fitting into that future.

Trend 1: Sustainability
Sustainability is no longer just about where food comes from or how it’s packaged. More companies are thinking about the full life cycle of a product and how every part of it can be used more wisely. In dairy, that means finding new uses for cheese byproducts and turning what was once considered waste into something valuable.

“We’re collaborating with several campus groups to turn cheese byproducts into new materials such as organic acids, bioplastics, natural colors and prebiotics,” says the Center for Dairy Research. “These projects are helping companies scale technologies that add value to what used to be waste streams.”

Trend 2: Health is About How Food Makes You Feel
Instead of asking if a food is “good” or “bad,” people want to know how it supports their day, from energy and digestion to focus and balance. Interest in metabolic health has grown, and fermented foods like cheese fit naturally into that space as research continues to explore their broader benefits.

“Cheese is far more than a mix of nutrients. Its complex structure and fermentation process influence how bioactive compounds are released and absorbed in the body,” the Center for Dairy Research says. “New research is showing that these compounds may play roles in healthy ageing from supporting cognitive and cardiovascular function to maintain muscle strength. Cheese also contains amino acids, and metabolites that can affect mood, sleep and gut health, making it an exciting area for continued study.”

Trend 3: Texture Matters
People don’t just want food that checks nutrition boxes. They want it to be satisfying. Texture has become a big part of that, especially in foods positioned as better-for-you. Creamy, melty and rich textures signal comfort and indulgence, and cheese delivers that naturally without trying too hard.

“The way milk proteins behave during aging or heating determines how cheese stretches, melts or snaps. Understanding texture at the molecular level helps cheesemakers design products that connect indulgence with function,” the Center for Dairy Research adds.

Trend 4: Protein is Part of Everyday Eating
Protein isn’t just for gym-goers anymore. It’s become part of how people think about staying full, energized and balanced throughout the day. With more consumers actively looking to add protein, familiar foods like cheese feel like an easy win at meals and snack time.

“High-quality protein is one of dairy’s strongest advantages,” the Center for Dairy Research says. “By studying how milk proteins react under different processing conditions, we can create foods that deliver both nutrition and satisfaction without overengineering what nature already provides.”

Trend 5: Authenticity Builds Trust
By 2026, people are paying closer attention to what feels real. Foods made with recognizable ingredients, clear origins and a sense of care tend to stand out. Cheese’s long history and connection to craft give it a natural advantage when authenticity matters.

Why Cheese Still Wins
In 2026, consumers are looking for foods that feel reliable but not stuck. They want products they know and love, while trusting that those foods are keeping up with changing values around health, sustainability and enjoyment. Cheese delivers that balance. It offers the comfort of familiarity, while continuing to evolve in ways that feel thoughtful and relevant. That mix of consistency and quiet innovation is what keeps cheese on the shopping list.

Driving Results for U.S. Dairy: A Journey of Innovation and Trust

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:03:43 GMT

The winds of change are sweeping across the dairy fields of America, guided by the adept leadership of Barbara O’Brien, president and CEO of Dairy Management Inc. Her commitment to steering the U.S. dairy industry toward growth and innovation exemplifies the power of collective effort and resilience in navigating a rapidly evolving landscape.

From Tradition to Innovation
O’Brien took the stage last week at the Joint Annual Meeting hosted by the National Milk Producers Federation, the National Dairy Board, and the United Dairy Industry Association in Arlington, Texas, sharing that she has embarked on a nationwide tour, visiting a diverse array of farms and local promotion boards from Michigan to west Kansas.

“Visiting farms offered valuable insights into various business operations, technology and teamwork that define dairy farming today, regardless of geography or scale,” she says, noting the message remains clear: Innovation is breathing new life into traditional practices, and unity in the industry is crucial to accomplish what no single farmer can achieve alone.

Investing for Momentum
The mission is straightforward: transform investments into momentum by building trust, growing demand and ensuring the future of U.S. dairy. Dairy Management Inc. leverages science, scale and speed-to-market strategies to empower farmers and enhance the dairy category. This shift from a defensive stance to one of leading with confidence is reshaping market dynamics, favoring a proactive approach over a reactive one.

“There was a time, three maybe five years ago, when headlines were dominated by aggressive and well-funded plant-based challengers. Farmers asked: What are you doing to fight back?” O’Brien says. “The answer is we didn’t just fight. We changed the game, followed the science and led. We didn’t tear others down. We built dairy up.”

Dairy in the Consumer Market
The renaissance of dairy in consumer markets highlights strategic maneuvering in response to the rise of plant-based competitors. Rather than refuting these alternatives, the industry fortifies its position through innovation and storytelling grounded in nutritional science. As consumers increasingly appreciate dairy’s taste and nutritional value, retail reports reflect an uptick in sales.

“Over the last 52 weeks of 170 food and beverage categories studied, dairy products ranked in the top 15 for growth, no matter the metric … absolute unit or dollar growth, percent volume growth and fastest growing in units or dollars,” O’Brien reports.

Building Trust Through Transparency
Trust remains a cornerstone of this strategy. With consumers seeking transparency regarding food origins, the dairy industry emphasizes openness and addresses concerns around animal care and climate change. Initiatives like the First 1,000 Days showcase dairy’s pivotal role in early childhood development and positively shape consumer perceptions.

“In partnership with MilkPEP, USDEC and our state and regional teams, we brought dairy’s science-based benefits for cognitive growth and early nutrition to parents and health professionals through earned media, podcasts and leading professional conferences,” O’Brien says. “That work reached more than 60,000 pediatric care specialists, shared dairy science at 30+ national conferences and generated over 21 million media impressions.”

Driving Demand with Partnerships
Innovative partnerships are key to driving demand. Collaborations with renowned brands such as Domino’s and Taco Bell have led to exciting new product offerings, while strategic campaigns with retail giants like Walmart and Costco ensure dairy’s prominence in consumer markets.

“Even in a tough environment, with inflation and cautious consumer spending weakening restaurant traffic, we’re still seeing strong gains in dairy utilization with three of our four major foodservice partners,” O’Brien says. “Our team has already developed new product platforms for a McDonald’s turnaround in 2026, and as the largest user of dairy in U.S. foodservice, we expect big news ahead.”

Encouraging Long-Term Growth
Looking ahead, the industry remains focused on long-term growth with its strategic Unified Plan, setting clear sales goals and emphasizing dairy’s health and wellness potential. At the heart of these initiatives is the determination of America’s dairy farmers, whose stories of progress and community fuel this remarkable journey.

“So, let me end where I started; at the heart of every result we deliver is the dedication of America’s dairy farmers, through your tireless efforts to feed people and care for your land and animals, and through your ongoing commitment to today’s dairy research, education, innovation and promotion organization,” O’Brien proudly says. “You make it possible for us to tell a powerful story — one of progress, care and community.”

Teamwork Between Promotion and Policy
As chair of Dairy Management Inc. board, for the seventh year, Marilyn Hershey, Pennsylvania dairy farmer also took to the stage, sharing her passion and purpose for DMI, as it maximizes research, partnerships and marketing efforts.

“This unified approach allows every farmer’s dollar to work harder and drive tangible results, contributing to an all-time high in dairy consumption,” she says.

Hershey says the DMI board success relies on the synergy between policy and promotion.

“Collaborative efforts with NMPF and IDFA bolster our influence, providing credible science and knowledge to shape industry conversations,” she says. “The retirement of Randy Mooney, NMPF chairman, underscores the importance of leadership that supports our shared goals.”

Driving Results by Making Your Voice Heard
U.S. dairy maintains a sturdy global presence, supported by partnerships and leadership that engage in global food and nutrition conversations.

“We continue to assert our own narrative, a significant shift from when international perceptions defined us,” Hershey says.

Progress is driven by engaged partners, both in and out of the trade show arenas. Encouraging community engagement, we invite everyone to share ideas and connect through various networking opportunities. By fostering these connections, we forge a secure future for U.S. dairy, upholding the legacy of American farming while setting new food trends. Together, we are driving results that will ensure the industry thrives for generations to come.

Your Next Read:
Leadership Transition: Randy Mooney’s Legacy at the National Milk Producers Federation

Whey Adds Needed Support to Class III Prices

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:27:14 GMT

With most CME spot dairy prices declining, dry whey prices have started to help stem the pain of falling milk prices.

“While the prices of most dairy products have come under pressure in recent weeks, whey remains a glaring exception,” says Monica Ganley, analyst for the “Daily Dairy Report” and principal of Quarterra, an agricultural consulting firm in Buenos Aires.

Rising dry whey prices, which are providing critical support to Class III milk prices, could not be occurring at a better time — especially since cheese prices have been under pressure for weeks. For every penny increase in the dry whey price, the Class III price rises by about 6¢.

“Even though the impact of dry whey on the milk price is much smaller than that of cheese, it can nevertheless provide essential support to producer price, particularly during a period of slimming margins,” Ganley says.

For weeks, the CME spot price for dry whey has continued to move incrementally higher, hitting a recent high of 71¢ per pound on Friday, October 31 — the highest price since January. That means since late July, whey has added more than a dollar to the Class III price.

“Both supply and demand are working to keep whey prices supported. On the supply side, even though cheese production is robust, the amount of raw whey available to be dried into sweet whey remains limited,” Ganley says.

Demand for high-protein whey products, such as whey protein concentrates and whey protein isolates continues to be robust. seemingly insatiable.

“As a result of this seemingly insatiable demand, manufacturers are routing a majority of the raw whey stream to these high-protein products, leaving only nominal volumes to be dried into whey powder. As a result, dry whey inventories are tight, and spot loads are a challenge to come by.”

At the same time supply of dry whey has been limited, demand for the most part has remained upbeat — but needs are mixed across the country. “Dairy Market News” recently reported that in the eastern part of the country, suppliers have plenty of demand to meet. Demand is reportedly softer in the western United States, but limited production in this part of the country has, nevertheless, kept the market supported.

“Market participants indicate that export demand for U.S. whey powder was strong earlier this fall but has been starting to weaken. And even though a rapidly evolving trade policy environment — especially the conflicts between the United States and China — created challenges for dry whey exports for much of the year. Gobal buyers had been looking to the United States to fill their dry whey needs,” Ganley says. “More recently, though, demand from Asia has weakened because European whey prices have become more competitive.”

Your Next Read:
Whiskey and Cows: An Unlikely Duo in Kentucky’s Heartland

Weaker Milk Checks Expected as Milk Production Surges

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 12:55:51 GMT

Milk production is strong in the U.S. — up more than 4% versus the prior year in some recent months. While partially supported by easy to overcome prior year comparable datapoints, when output was negatively impacted by the avian influenza outbreak, the volume growth is the strongest noted since 2021 and follows three years of relatively flat production noted in 2022-2024. In addition to growing volume, components continue to increase as well, with butterfat and protein levels climbing steadily in recent years, allowing processors to make even more dairy products from their milk intake. This abundant supply — seen in nearly all regions of the country — has weighed on prices in recent weeks, with lower milk checks expected for dairy farmers expected to hit mailboxes in Q4.

Globally, the picture is similar — with nearly every key producing region seeing production expand as well. After a slow start to the year, the EU is seeing additional milk in recent months. High milk prices in New Zealand are supporting what could be a record-breaking milk production season, with all eyes on October volume — the typical yearly peak in the country. It is rare for all key global dairy areas to see volume expand simultaneously, but profitable milk prices and the lack of any negative weather event currently continues to support output around the globe.

With higher supply and mixed demand signals, the milk price outlook has declined in recent weeks. Most products have seen weakness, but cheese and butter especially have noted the steepest declines. Following three years of strength, the CME spot butter price has dropped below $2 per pound and is at the lowest level since 2021 into mid-October. Heavy cheddar volume has prevented any strength from materializing in the cheese market as well, and weak nonfat dry milk demand has negatively impacted that market even as supply is not abundant. Bucking the trend, and particularly helpful for the Class III outlook, solid protein demand has pushed the dry whey price slightly higher in recent weeks. Overall, milk prices have inched lower and are — in some cases — weaker than the cost of production, hurting the margin outlook for Q4 and into 2026.

Thankfully, other supportive factors are somewhat offsetting this lower expected milk revenue. Feed costs are expected to remain at multi-year lows, thanks to a solid harvest and trouble on the export front. Importantly, cow and calf sales continue to fetch record value, with dairy farmers keeping cows in the herd for longer to capitalize on impressive values fetched from beef on dairy cross calves. It might take several months for the world to work through this abundant milk supply, preventing milk prices from climbing in the near term. But a declining cost of production — coupled with non-milk revenue generation from calves — should be helpful for the bottom line in the meantime.

Your Next Read:
Using Data to Make a Difference: Dairy Data Partners

Record Class Price Spreads and Butter Cheese Inversion

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:55:20 GMT

U.S. dairy prices are struggling to find ground, amid low demand and plenty of production to meet needs. Exports have been helpful, despite an ongoing trade war with China, but world dairy prices have drifted lower for the third month in a row. Among all the negative news, we have seen a few rare occurrences take place, giving opportunities to a few and uncertainty of where prices will go from here.

Butter fell to $1.605 last week, creating an inversion in the market where butter is trading below the current price of cheese at $1.70 for blocks, and barrels closing last week out at $1.71. This is rare occurrence not seen in several years.

Relatively high cream production, with lower seasonal orders and lower food services demand, on top of a world price decline are to blame for butter’s price demise. Seasonal retail orders, while picking up, haven’t materialized as normal ahead of the holidays and cold-storage inventories have remained heavy due to the lack of buying interest. It is expected that inventories will pull back slightly but not nearly the drop seen in a normal year for this season.

Cheese markets have remained a little bit of a bright spot in a dim marketing situation. They have held steady or drifted lower at a slower pace than the rest of the dairy industry prices. Giving way for the inverted butter to cheese price. There has been a slight increase in processed and aged cheese with decent export demand, shipped to Mexico, South Korea and Central America.

In the meantime, the Class III and Class IV price have drifted apart, coming in at a $2.47 per cwt spread between the two classes last week, the widest seen since 2021. Class III has been impacted by cheese prices, while Class IV has fallen with the decline in butter and powder prices.

This wide spread between classes affects pooling decisions under the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO) and many handlers have started to “de-pool” their Class IV milk to keep more value within their own system. The imbalance certainly raises questions about potential adjustments to the FMMO modernization proposals.

Farmers in cheese heavy regions are benefiting slightly, relative to those producers in higher butter/powder regions, but overall, most producers are concerned about margins everywhere. Without a clear demand rebound, the market’s path forward depends on an uptick in holiday buying or a decline in world production.

Your Next Read:
Why Beef-on-Dairy Is Shaking Up The Dairy Industry Landscape

Why Dairy Is Dominating: America's New Billion-Dollar Ag Success Story

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 11:33:04 GMT

The U.S. dairy industry is in the midst of a record-breaking boom — fueled by premium beef-on-dairy calves, historic investments in processing plants and surging demand for protein both at home and abroad.

Beef-on-Dairy: A Revenue Stream That’s Reshaping the Market

Dairy farmers across the U.S. aren’t just milking cows — they’re tapping into a lucrative side market. Record cattle prices are giving rise to “beef-on-dairy,” a crossbreeding trend that’s bringing in premium prices and reshaping the value chain.

“I think it is an enormous revenue stream for dairy farmers,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). “The number I hear is about $1,400 for that black day-old calf. As the old beef guy, I think that’s going to be there for at least another year or so — maybe more.”

The result, Doud says, is the dairy industry is “hitting on all cylinders,” as dairy producers capitalize on strong beef genetics and elevated cattle values to diversify income.

New Wave of Investment

At the same time, the U.S. is seeing a level of investment in dairy processing never before witnessed in American agriculture.

“It really is $10 billion — 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 — in new dairy processing investment in the U.S.,” Doud said. “There’s nothing like it in the history of U.S. agriculture, of any commodity, anywhere in the world.”

Dairy’s $10 billion in investment in dairy processing over the next three years spans across the country.

(Ever.Ag)

According to Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), more than $11 billion is flowing into 53 new or expanded dairy manufacturing facilities across 19 states, from New York to Texas to Idaho. These projects are slated to come online between 2025 and 2028.

“Investment follows demand,” Dykes says. “It’s phenomenal — the scale and scope of what’s happening right now.”

Production Rising to Meet Global Appetite

Farmers are responding to those signals. USDA data shows U.S. milk production is up nearly 5% year over year, and the agency projects another 27 billion pounds of milk by 2034.

Exports have also surged, reaching a record $8.2 billion last year.

“I can’t tell you how many meetings I went to where people said, ‘We’re scared to death there won’t be enough milk,’” Dykes recalls. “I said, don’t fret for one moment — dairy farmers hear the market calling for milk. Milk will come.”

America’s Dairy Demand Hits Record Highs

Domestic demand is booming too. Americans are consuming an average 661 pounds of dairy per person per year — the highest ever recorded.

“Cheese is driving the bus,” Dykes said. “We’re eating about 42 pounds of cheese per person per year — and pizza has clearly contributed to that.”

But it’s not just cheese. Butter, yogurt, premium ice cream and even milk itself are seeing renewed strength.

“Milk has been trending downward for the last few years,” Dykes said. “But even last year, milk took a turn up — led by whole milk, high-protein milk and lactose-free options.”

The Protein Craze Powering Dairy’s Momentum

Behind this surge is one key word: protein.

“The demand for protein globally is unbelievable,” Doud says. “Everywhere I go, I tell people — we’re having a moment here on the dairy-side of the equation.”

Doud notes dairy’s protein-rich products — from cheese to whey — are meeting consumer demand both domestically and internationally.

“We’re up 2% this year in volume, 16% in value,” he says. “Global demand for dairy is rolling, and we are right in the hunt.”

Dykes agrees, pointing out the “protein craze” isn’t just helping beef and pork — it’s boosting dairy too.

“Most of the products that have ‘protein added’ are dairy-derived proteins, like whey from cheese plants,” he says. “Consumers globally cannot get enough protein. Dairy has a protein that’s highly digestible and fits perfectly with the health and wellness mood of this country. We’re even adding protein to ice cream.”

A Growing Industry with a Rural Footprint

The dairy industry’s impact stretches far beyond store shelves. Dykes says the U.S. now has 1,200 processing plants, employing 3 million people, generating $200 billion in wages and paying $83 billion in state and local taxes.

“These plants are going into rural communities — where the milk is produced,” Dykes adds. “That’s where the jobs and opportunities are being created.”

Texas, South Dakota and Kansas are seeing the largest waves of new investment, with New York emerging as a new processing hub.

Labor: The Industry’s Biggest Challenge

Even with growth on nearly every front, one major hurdle remains: labor.

“The administration is working on short-term solutions through the Department of Labor — mainly H-2A or seasonal programs,” Doud explains. “But that really doesn’t do anything for us on the dairy side because we need year-round help.”

He says lasting change will require Congressional action.

“We have to have Congress change the law,” Doud says. “House Ag Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson is working on this, but it’s a big lift. We always get stuck on the 60-vote issue in the Senate. We’ve got to make another run at this.”

Doud remains hopeful a political breakthrough could come — much like the immigration reforms of the late 1980s — to finally deliver a sustainable labor solution for dairy.

America’s Dairy Future

From booming exports to billion-dollar investments, the dairy sector is on a trajectory few could have predicted a decade ago. Industry leaders say if trade and labor challenges can be addressed, the U.S. will continue to cement its place as a global dairy powerhouse for years to come.

“We’re hitting on all cylinders right now,” Doud says. “And if we can keep that momentum going, there’s no limit to how far U.S. dairy can go.”

Milk Margins Likely to Fall Along with Feed Prices

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 11:35:35 GMT

Milk and dairy product futures indicate that milk prices will move much lower in coming months, but feed costs are also dropping — and that will help offset some of the decline in milk prices. However, the pain will not be felt equally, says Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

“USDA’s national average All-Milk price captures broad industry trends without telling the full story,” she says.

For example, in August, the All-Milk price ranged from $26 in Georgia to $19.20/cwt in New Mexico. Even within states, Sharp says, milk revenues can vary widely. While the Federal Milk Marketing Order system attempts to smooth over differences between Class III and Class IV milk prices, variances can impact dairy cooperatives and ultimately dairy producer revenue.

“This year, two major dairy cooperatives on the West Coast suffered financial losses that they had to pass on to their members, resulting in monthly milk checks far below the All-Milk price,” Sharp notes. “And other dairy cooperatives and milk processors are struggling with extremely high butterfat-to-protein ratios, and they are not paying producers for the full value of extra butterfat. The combination of these steep discounts plus a significant drop in fourth-quarter Class IV prices suggests that producers will suffer much slimmer margins — or even red ink — in coming months despite low feed costs and record-shattering beef revenue.”

Looking at feed costs, U.S. crop growers received an average of $3.96/bu. of corn, the lowest price in a year and substantially less than May’s peak of $4.64, according to the data from the Agricultural Prices reports. While benchmark soybean meal prices rebounded to $284.34/ton, Sharp notes that they were lower than in most months of 2025 as well as under the 2024 average of $354.28. The national average price for premium alfalfa in August fell to $222/ton, the lowest price since April 2021.

Using USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program’s feed costs calculations, the average dairy producer spent $9.38/cwt of milk production on feed in August, down from $9.86/cwt in July. That means August feed costs were the lowest for any month since October 2020.

“These feed prices reflect the national average prices that crop farmers receive, but dairy producers buying feed often pay more than the average farm price, due to storage and merchandising expenses,” Sharp notes. “And just like milk prices, feed costs can vary widely by location. USDA’s assessment of premium hay prices, for example, ranged from $380/ton in Pennsylvania to $175/ton in Idaho. So, while national average indices do not reflect individual on-farm circumstances, they are an indication of industry trends. Today, they clearly point to waning feed costs across the nation.”

Sharp noted that these indices are important because they’re used in the DMC program’s income-over-feed index, which determines whether the 73% of dairies enrolled in the program receive indemnity payments when national average milk revenues are inadequate to cover national average feed costs, plus an assumed margin for all other dairy expenses.

“Using the DMC’s income-over-feed index, dairy producers have enjoyed an exceptionally long period of prosperity. The national All-Milk price minus feed expenses came to $12.29/cwt of milk in August, far above the $9.50/cwt margin that would trigger indemnity payments for the highest tier of DMC enrollees,” Sharp says. “Indeed, the DMC’s income-over-feed index has not dropped below $9.50/cwt since January 2024. These figures are affirmed by dairy producers’ immense appetite for expansion. While the heifer shortage prevented producers from adding cows in late-2023 and early 2024, producers are now growing the milk-cow herd at the fastest rate since 2008. But if milk prices are low enough for long enough, the dairy herd could shrink just as quickly.”

Your Next Read: Embrace Progress: Insights from Trailblazing Dairy Producers at World Dairy Expo

Navigate the Shift: U.S. Dairy Markets and the Impact of New FMMO Changes

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 11:38:19 GMT

U.S. milk output has been surging most of the year, bringing dairy prices to some of the lowest we’ve seen in years. USDA reports August 2025 saw an increase of more than 3% higher milk output than August of last year.

It is a perplexing issue with lower cow numbers. However, feed is cheap, and if there is one thing the American farmer is good at, it is creating efficiencies in every corner of their operation.

As a result of the abundance of milk supply, there have been new lows in nearly every sector of the dairy market — but most notably in butter, cheese and Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM). Butter fell below $2.00 per pound, something we have not seen in months, due to the higher cream supply and higher churning activity as of late.

Demand is steady domestically, but the supply of milk is more than we can use. Exports have been the bright light in the demand picture, as world demand is strong, but demand struggles to keep up with the national milk production rising the fastest pace we’ve seen in two years.

While markets struggle to find support, farmers have begun to adjust to the new changes in the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO). It has been long awaited for the FMMO to get a new, modern facelift to reflect more of what we are seeing in dairy today by updating the old, outdated formulas. However, it did not come without costs for some farmers.

For others, such as farmers in the southeast, where fluid milk is usually a deficit in that region, the changes are favorable. For example, Class I Pricing has changed to the “higher-of” formula — which ties fluid milk prices to whichever is greater between Class III or Class IV. There have also been adjustments for location-specific premiums, which are meant to better reflect hauling and supply costs.

Processors saw a benefit in higher allowances for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey — which are supposed to reflect the updated manufacturing costs. Unfortunately for farmers, this translates into lower component values on their milk checks.

In the cheese pricing formula, they have removed the 500 lb. barrel price from Class III calculations, leaving only 40 lb. blocks as the sole reference price for cheese.

There have also been some changes in component assumptions. Protein and solids factors will increase. This is meant to align formulas more closely with today’s milk composition. These changes have been delayed until December 2025. This is to give risk management tools such as DRP insurance, contracting and hedging strategies some time to adjust or adapt before the new pricing structure roll out begins.

For the producers, the biggest impact seen so far is the immediate difference on their settlements, which have shown lower-than-expected returns under the updated system, especially if they are focused on components due to the new make allowances.

For the future, the shift in protein and solids should improve valuations. Producers shipping into fluid milk markets should stand to benefit from stronger Class I values and higher differentials. But today, it is clear changes in policies may help improve transparency and make calculations easier — but not always the best financially for the producers.

As far as where to go from here for the farmer, learn as much as you can about the new policy changes, how it affects your farm prices and talk with your marketing professionals about what needs to be done for hedging or insurance needs going forward.

Your Next Read:
A Fresh Perspective on Young Dairy Farmers and the Digital Revolution

Milk, Cheese, Butter, Oh My! What's Driving these Markets

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:26:46 GMT

CME markets remain relatively range-bound. Butter futures are trading a whopping 23¢ premium just a month out, signaling butter likely won’t break below the $2 mark. Cheese is still finding support at $1.65 and has a lot of sell-side interest at $1.85, with trade feeling choppy in between. School milk needs might help tighten up cream and spot milk supplies, but milk still feels like it’s long in most of the country.

CME cheese markets dropped today, with blocks slipping 3.5¢ to $1.73 per pound and barrels shedding $0.0375 to close at $1.7425. Four lots of blocks changed hands. Spot NDM declined to $1.2275 per pound, losing $0.0075, with six lots exchanged. Spot butter ticked up just a quarter cent to $2.015 per pound.

Milk was more available in the Midwest amid cooler temperatures and holiday downtime at cheese plants. USDA reported spot milk in the region at a midpoint of 25¢ per hundredweight under class. That compares to +$1.00 last week, +$1.75 in 2024 and -5¢ on the five-year average. Class II multiples in the Central region also declined, down to 127 compared to 130 last week, 131 last year and the five-year average of 136.

Globally competitive prices kept U.S. cheese and butter exports strong in July. Outbound cheese volume totaled 114.9 million pounds, up 29% year-over-year. Mexico purchased 38.9 million pounds, up just 1% versus 2024. Butter exports totaled 18.5 million pounds, up 206% on the year. But milk powder exports continued to lag prior-year levels at 131.9 million pounds, down 16% compared to July 2024.

Shifting Tides in the Dairy Market: A Closer Look at Butter and Cheese Prices

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:27:08 GMT

The CME spot butter market continues to steal the attention as prices dropped another few cents. Can this market break $2? The answer will likely come sooner than most expected. Although USDA’s July report showed tighter inventories, supply appears ample to start September. Reports suggest demand for bulk butter remains soft, certainly compared to normal for this time of year. That’s likely adding to the heavier supply feeling. Spot cheese prices dipped slightly today as well, which combined with weaker spot butter ultimately knocked nearby Class III and IV prices down by more than a dime.

The CME butter market continued to fall, down $0.0325 to a new year-to-date low of $2.0125 per pound. One lot changed hands. Spot blocks slipped slightly, down a penny to $1.7650 per pound, with 13 loads exchanged. Barrels, NDM and dry whey were unchanged with no trades.

Most commodities dropped at today’s GlobalDairyTrade event on the highest volume offered season-to-date. Milk powders led the way, with WMP down 5.6% to $1.73 per pound and SMP down 4.9% to $1.19. Butter slipped 2.4% to $3.16 per pound (adjusted to 82% butterfat). Cheddar logged the only increase, up 3.5% to $2.14 per pound.

As of Aug. 31, 69% of the U.S. corn crop was in good or excellent condition compared to 71% last week and 59% on the five-year average. The soybean crop was 65% good or excellent, down from 69% last week, but up from the five-year average of 59%.

Your Next Read:
From Brew to Moo: The Sustainable Dairy Practices at Ayers Farm

Market Resurgence: Butter Futures' Surprising Rebound

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 21:25:05 GMT

Butter futures recovered much of their losses from yesterday with the help of today’s increase at the spot session. This was a surprising move after spots fell apart yesterday, leading to limit-down trading for multiple futures contracts. Even with blocks trading higher on the day, Class III saw more red, leading some to wonder if the block market will test $1.60 again. Q4 Class III found itself in new lows today, at one point trading below $17.60 as a pack.

The CME spot markets finished mostly higher Thursday. Butter recovered a bit after yesterday’s plunge, climbing 3.5¢ to $2.085 per pound. No lots changed hands. Blocks gained 1.5¢ to close at $1.775 per pound, with three loads trading. Barrels were the lone decliner, dipping to $1.78, a half-cent loss. Whey ticked up a half-cent to 55.5¢ per pound on three lots, while NDM rose a half cent to $1.26, with one lot trading.

Spot milk volume in the Midwest is light as production declines seasonally and Class I demand increases. USDA reported prices at a midpoint of $1 per hundredweight over class, down from +$1.38 last week and +$1.25 last year, but up from +13¢ on the five-year average. Cream is less easily obtained this week, pushing multiples higher. USDA pegged Class II multiples in the Central region at 130 compared to 129 last week, 135 in 2024 and 140 on the five-year average.

For the week ending Aug. 16, slaughter rates were just slightly ahead of prior-year levels at 51,600 head. Culling dropped in the West (-20.5%) and Mid-Atlantic (-7.5%), but increased in the South (+10.0%), Midwest (+5.8%) and Northwest (+1.6%).

A New Era for Bongards' Creameries: Dennis Thomas Appointed as CEO

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 20:35:45 GMT

Bongards’ Creameries is set to enter a new era of leadership as Dennis Thomas, the current chief operating officer, will assume the role of president and CEO on Jan. 1, 2026. Brent Ziegler, chairman of Bongards’ Creameries, recently announced this change, which comes as Daryl Larson prepares for his retirement after a successful tenure that began in 2018.

Leadership Transition
“We’re confident that Dennis, with his tremendous depth of experience and knowledge, will successfully lead Bongards into the future, building upon the growth and industry leadership that Daryl has achieved during his tenure,” Ziegler says, noting the company’s faith in Thomas’ capabilities to steer Bongards forward, ensuring continued success and innovation in the competitive dairy industry.

Thomas brings a wealth of industry experience to his new role. Before joining Bongards’, he held various general management positions at Dairy Farmers of America, Foremost Farms, Land O’Lakes, and Kraft Foods. During his five-year tenure at Bongards’, Thomas has played a pivotal role in expanding operational efficiencies and increasing the company’s manufacturing capacity at its facilities in Humboldt, Tenn., and Bongards, Minn.

“I am honored to be appointed CEO of Bongards and being part of the talented team within this wonderful company,” he says. “Having grown up on a farm in rural South Dakota, I look forward to serving our farmer-owners as we continue building on our positive momentum and delivering strong results.”

About Bongards Creameries
Founded in 1908 in Bongards, Minn., Bongards Creameries is a farmer-owned cooperative with a long-standing history of excellence in the dairy sector. The co-op’s owner-member dairy farms are located in Minnesota and North Dakota, collectively forming a powerhouse of dairy expertise and production.

As a vertically integrated global cheese supplier, Bongards produces hundreds of millions of pounds of natural cheese, processed cheese and whey annually. Their products serve a diverse range of clients, including major food service operators, food manufacturers and distributors. Bongards’ cheeses can be found in a variety of settings such as commercial restaurants, K-12 schools, retail delis and convenience stores.

With corporate offices in Chanhassen, Minn., and production facilities across Bongards, Perham and Humboldt, Bongards Creameries continue to shape the dairy industry through its commitment to quality and innovation.

As Dennis Thomas prepares to lead Bongards into the future, the company looks to solidify its position as a leader in quality cheese production and further expand its global reach in the dairy market.

Your Next Read:
New Dairy Training Platform Boosts Consistency and Compliance

Butter's Slippery Slope and Cheese Wobbles on the Markets

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 21:49:26 GMT

The view was mostly a sea of red on the dairy trading screen today. Butter fell hard, landing below the $2.10-per-pound mark. The stock decline in last Friday’s Cold Storage report hasn’t stopped the price slide. Instead, physical traders are looking at heavy and cheap cream volumes, which are creating big margins for the butter churn. Cheese continues to bounce between $1.70 and $1.80, still weighed down by increased milk volume and component levels.

Butter plunged to a new year-to-date low of $2.05 per pound at the CME, with 12 lots changing hands. The 13.5¢ slide was the biggest single-day drop since November 2023. Blocks fell five cents to $1.76, while barrels slipped 1.5¢ to $1.785. Volume traded: three lots of blocks, zero of barrels. Dry whey lost two cents to close at 55¢, with four lots exchanged. NDM ticked up a quarter cent to $1.255 per pound, with a healthy 14 loads trading.

The butter drop carried over to futures, with September ($2.2203), October ($2.255), November ($2.275), February ($2.30), April ($2.3953) and July ($2.4988) all settling limit down (-7.5¢). Fourth quarter Class IV declined to $17.51 per hundredweight, a 34¢ loss. Class III also tumbled, down 36¢ to $17.73.

The global butter price gap remains wide. The CME weekly average is $2.16 per pound compared to $3.16 in New Zealand and $3.61 in Europe. U.S. cheese also remains at a steep discount at $1.80 per pound, well below New Zealand’s $2.06 and Europe’s $2.30. Milk powder is still tightly clustered. CME NDM’s average sits at $1.26 per pound, just slightly ahead of $1.25 in New Zealand and Europe.

Your Next Read:
New Dairy Training Platform Boosts Consistency and Compliance