Consumer Demands

Driving Results for U.S. Dairy: A Journey of Innovation and Trust

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:03:43 GMT

The winds of change are sweeping across the dairy fields of America, guided by the adept leadership of Barbara O’Brien, president and CEO of Dairy Management Inc. Her commitment to steering the U.S. dairy industry toward growth and innovation exemplifies the power of collective effort and resilience in navigating a rapidly evolving landscape.

From Tradition to Innovation
O’Brien took the stage last week at the Joint Annual Meeting hosted by the National Milk Producers Federation, the National Dairy Board, and the United Dairy Industry Association in Arlington, Texas, sharing that she has embarked on a nationwide tour, visiting a diverse array of farms and local promotion boards from Michigan to west Kansas.

“Visiting farms offered valuable insights into various business operations, technology and teamwork that define dairy farming today, regardless of geography or scale,” she says, noting the message remains clear: Innovation is breathing new life into traditional practices, and unity in the industry is crucial to accomplish what no single farmer can achieve alone.

Investing for Momentum
The mission is straightforward: transform investments into momentum by building trust, growing demand and ensuring the future of U.S. dairy. Dairy Management Inc. leverages science, scale and speed-to-market strategies to empower farmers and enhance the dairy category. This shift from a defensive stance to one of leading with confidence is reshaping market dynamics, favoring a proactive approach over a reactive one.

“There was a time, three maybe five years ago, when headlines were dominated by aggressive and well-funded plant-based challengers. Farmers asked: What are you doing to fight back?” O’Brien says. “The answer is we didn’t just fight. We changed the game, followed the science and led. We didn’t tear others down. We built dairy up.”

Dairy in the Consumer Market
The renaissance of dairy in consumer markets highlights strategic maneuvering in response to the rise of plant-based competitors. Rather than refuting these alternatives, the industry fortifies its position through innovation and storytelling grounded in nutritional science. As consumers increasingly appreciate dairy’s taste and nutritional value, retail reports reflect an uptick in sales.

“Over the last 52 weeks of 170 food and beverage categories studied, dairy products ranked in the top 15 for growth, no matter the metric … absolute unit or dollar growth, percent volume growth and fastest growing in units or dollars,” O’Brien reports.

Building Trust Through Transparency
Trust remains a cornerstone of this strategy. With consumers seeking transparency regarding food origins, the dairy industry emphasizes openness and addresses concerns around animal care and climate change. Initiatives like the First 1,000 Days showcase dairy’s pivotal role in early childhood development and positively shape consumer perceptions.

“In partnership with MilkPEP, USDEC and our state and regional teams, we brought dairy’s science-based benefits for cognitive growth and early nutrition to parents and health professionals through earned media, podcasts and leading professional conferences,” O’Brien says. “That work reached more than 60,000 pediatric care specialists, shared dairy science at 30+ national conferences and generated over 21 million media impressions.”

Driving Demand with Partnerships
Innovative partnerships are key to driving demand. Collaborations with renowned brands such as Domino’s and Taco Bell have led to exciting new product offerings, while strategic campaigns with retail giants like Walmart and Costco ensure dairy’s prominence in consumer markets.

“Even in a tough environment, with inflation and cautious consumer spending weakening restaurant traffic, we’re still seeing strong gains in dairy utilization with three of our four major foodservice partners,” O’Brien says. “Our team has already developed new product platforms for a McDonald’s turnaround in 2026, and as the largest user of dairy in U.S. foodservice, we expect big news ahead.”

Encouraging Long-Term Growth
Looking ahead, the industry remains focused on long-term growth with its strategic Unified Plan, setting clear sales goals and emphasizing dairy’s health and wellness potential. At the heart of these initiatives is the determination of America’s dairy farmers, whose stories of progress and community fuel this remarkable journey.

“So, let me end where I started; at the heart of every result we deliver is the dedication of America’s dairy farmers, through your tireless efforts to feed people and care for your land and animals, and through your ongoing commitment to today’s dairy research, education, innovation and promotion organization,” O’Brien proudly says. “You make it possible for us to tell a powerful story — one of progress, care and community.”

Teamwork Between Promotion and Policy
As chair of Dairy Management Inc. board, for the seventh year, Marilyn Hershey, Pennsylvania dairy farmer also took to the stage, sharing her passion and purpose for DMI, as it maximizes research, partnerships and marketing efforts.

“This unified approach allows every farmer’s dollar to work harder and drive tangible results, contributing to an all-time high in dairy consumption,” she says.

Hershey says the DMI board success relies on the synergy between policy and promotion.

“Collaborative efforts with NMPF and IDFA bolster our influence, providing credible science and knowledge to shape industry conversations,” she says. “The retirement of Randy Mooney, NMPF chairman, underscores the importance of leadership that supports our shared goals.”

Driving Results by Making Your Voice Heard
U.S. dairy maintains a sturdy global presence, supported by partnerships and leadership that engage in global food and nutrition conversations.

“We continue to assert our own narrative, a significant shift from when international perceptions defined us,” Hershey says.

Progress is driven by engaged partners, both in and out of the trade show arenas. Encouraging community engagement, we invite everyone to share ideas and connect through various networking opportunities. By fostering these connections, we forge a secure future for U.S. dairy, upholding the legacy of American farming while setting new food trends. Together, we are driving results that will ensure the industry thrives for generations to come.

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Navigate the Winds of Change: Uncertainty and Opportunity in the Global Dairy Economy

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:19:31 GMT

In today’s rapidly evolving global economy, businesses and consumers are grappling with unprecedented uncertainty. At the 2025 Global Dairy Conference in Chicago, Ill., Cara Murphy, senior manager of market intelligence with High Ground Dairy, highlighted key issues shaping our dairy economic landscape.

Trade Volatility and Geopolitical Risks
The year 2025 kicked off with significant trade volatility, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.

Murphy points out regions such as the U.S., Canada, Mexico and China have been hit the hardest. Trade-driven fragmentation and global uncertainty continue to drive down growth. The United Nations reported a decline in global foreign direct investment, predicting further decreases as geopolitical risks mount. Furthermore, the World Bank warned the 2020s could be the slowest decade for global economic growth since the 1960s.

Murphy shares the recent geopolitical events have further fueled economic uncertainty. The conflict involving the U.S. and Iran, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz — a critical pathway for 20% of the world’s oil supply — led to unexpected fluctuations in oil prices. Despite initial fears of price rises, markets shifted lower, illustrating the unpredictability of today’s economic climate.

Tariff Turmoil
The ongoing tariff wars remain a major source of instability. Talks between the U.S. and China have led to temporary truces, yet the threat of rising tariffs looms. For instance, tariffs on U.S. dairy exports to China have seen significant hikes, which could result in increased consumer prices down the line. Steel and aluminum tariffs have also risen sharply, sparking potential retaliatory actions from global trade partners.

Currencies around the world are reacting to these turbulent dynamics. The U.S. dollar is at a three-year low, affecting U.S. importers’ settlement preferences, while the Euro and Chinese Yuan are experiencing their own challenges. As transparency in economic reporting from China declines, businesses find it harder to navigate this opaque landscape.

Stephen Cain, senior director of economic research and analysis at the National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council shares detailed insights that span from global economic impacts down to the nuances of consumer behavior.

He says understanding the motivations behind these tariffs and their implications proves challenging. Different factions within this political administration hold conflicting views on trade, with strategies that seem to shift with time and circumstance. Particularly significant is the targeting of countries with trade deficits — a contentious issue marked by a series of inconsistent policies.

The rapidity with which tariffs are implemented and adjusted has lead to erratic market behavior. Cain highlights how these market fluctuations, driven by tariff announcements, create volatility in the futures market and affect dairy product prices. As tariffs on major trade partners like Canada and Mexico are applied, paused and reinstated, the industry struggles to adapt. This endless cycle of uncertainty demands a continual recalibration of market strategies.

Macro-Economic Implications
According to Cain, beyond industry-specific impacts, tariffs ripple through the broader economy. The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown significant volatility in reaction to tariff announcements. Although some initial fears of economic downturn have been mitigated, uncertainty persists. Consumer sentiment — a critical barometer of economic health — has notably declined since mid-year. Though reminiscent of the COVID era, this decline is more psychological — driven by media coverage and anticipation rather than immediate financial hardship.

Tourism and Consumer Sentiment
Uncertainty extends into the tourism sector, which is a crucial component of the U.S. economy. The World Travel and Tourism Organization anticipates a 7% drop in international arrivals to the U.S., exacerbated by deflated consumer confidence. Consumer spending — a primary driver of the U.S. GDP — is vulnerable, with the wealthiest earners reining in their expenses due to fears about their future finances and job security.

“Something that’s really important when we look at currency, and specifically look at uncertainty in tariffs, is people are just losing trust in America and the USD on the side of the Euro,” Murphy says. “When think about these uncertainties, trade tensions — all of these things — long term, what does that mean? When people don’t really trust the U.S., they don’t tend to come to the U.S.”

Cain notes how media coverage on tariffs inundates consumers with narratives of economic doom and shapes their purchasing behaviors. While actual price increases from tariffs have yet to fully materialize in consumer goods, the perception of rising costs influences spending patterns significantly. This gap between current financial stability and future expectations highlights the pervasive anxiety trickling from macroeconomic discussions into personal economic outlooks.

The Silver Lining: Staying Informed and Seizing Opportunities
While this outlook may seem daunting, it is not without hope. Murphy emphasizes how staying informed will be critical. Even amid economic instability, opportunities abound for those who remain vigilant and adaptable to change. Businesses that keep abreast of shifting dynamics can capitalize on emerging trends and position themselves for success.

The current global economic landscape is marked by volatility and uncertainty. However, by understanding these challenges and remaining informed, individuals and organizations can find opportunities even in adversity. As we brace for the unknown, competition may force innovation and adaptation — ultimately resulting in long-term resilience and growth.

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3 Factors Fueling Americans' Obsession with Protein

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 15:48:10 GMT

Meat is having a moment, and the craze for more protein is benefiting protein across the board. The fact cattle prices continue to crush records is proof of that, as well as the robust demand for pork.

“I am still bullish of dairy. I’m bullish of beef. I’m bullish of pork and poultry,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company . “I think as you think forward, I see the next two or three years as being the years of protein. It’s that side of the fence in agriculture that’s going to do very well.”

Basse’s optimistic outlook on protein hinges on one major factor: consumers’ ability to pay for it.

“I’m still bullish of protein, until we see the labor force start to shrink in the United States, and I start to see disposable income coming down. Again, there’s not a period looking backward in history that I can find where disposable income on a personal basis has risen this quickly from 2020 to 2025,” he says.

“Meat protein, not just pork or not just beef, but meat is having a moment. I’m an economist, so I have concerns on the macroeconomic front, but it is exciting to be in an era where the public’s desire for meat protein is growing,” says Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University.

People Are Eating More Protein Than Ever Before

Cargill’s 2025 Protein Profile found people are eating more protein than ever before. The report found 61% of consumers report increasing their protein intake in 2024, which is up from 48% from 2019.

According to Cargill, the shift in shoppers’ preferences toward whole, minimally processed foods, is giving protein a chance to shine.

“It’s really important to remember the U.S. public wants meat protein,” Tonsor says. “There are a lot of signs. We are in a pro protein environment. I don’t think there’s issues. I actually think there is a celebration about the taste and the eating experience and so forth for all the major proteins.”

A Slight Shift in May’s Monthly Meat Demand Monitor

Tonsor also authors what’s called the Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) , which tracks U.S. consumer preferences, views and demand for meat. The first half of the year, the MDM continued to show consumers’ growing demand for protein, but in the report in May, it did show a slight shift.

“The biggest takeaway from the MDM would be we have two conflicting patterns,” says Tonsor. “One is the public really wants meat protein, but the macroeconomic environment is giving us some pause. So, we continue to see strong signals people want protein. Taste is leading that decision, so that’s good and very supportive, but we also see lots of uncertainty on the macro-economic front. So, trade discussions, elevated unemployment, inflation concerns and so forth. Those are not supportive of meat demand, so those are the two trends that are fighting the way out.”

Tonsor points out the May MDM showed a pullback in consumers eating away from home, like in restaurants, but showed a boost in retail demand, which would be grocery stores.

“But part of that is a substitution away from restaurants,” he says. “And that’s across the board. It’s not just pork or beef or chicken. It’s all of them that we track, so I do think it is a headwind that is growing here in 2025.”

Tonsor says if confidence in the economy rebounds, and tariff discussions ease, the restaurant piece of meat demand could quickly recover, especially considering we’re entering the summer months, where meat demand is typically higher.

3 Major Drivers Behind the Protein Craze

And even with the pause in restaurant demand in May, Tonsor says the push for consumers to eat even more protein doesn’t seem to be going away, and it’s being driven by three major factors.

“More people are having meat as an ingredient rather than center of the plate. So, it’s coming across as more convenient. It’s an input,” Tonsor says. “Also younger folks in particular are quite physically active, and their demand for protein and that broader lifestyle is elevated.”

Those two factors are strong drivers of meat demand, especially in the younger crowd. But another supportive piece of the growing demand for protein is related to weight loss drugs.

“We have a GLP-1 effect, so Ozempic, Mounjar and so forth, in the MDM, we put out a report earlier this year, showing maybe 15% of the U.S. public is using the GLP-1,” Tonsor says. “That’s a higher end, but that’s what we estimate. And if you are on those products, you’re actually consuming beef, pork and chicken more frequently.”

He says all of those things add up to support the growth in meat demand.

“It’s the income and the future status of my finances is mainly the only headwind at the moment, and that’s why I keep reiterating that concern,” Tonsor says.

Demand is What’s Pushing Cattle Prices to New Highs

It’s not just the hog industry that’s benefiting from the strong demand, both domestically and with exports

Cattle prices continue to crush records. But according to one veteran cattle analyst, it’s not historically tight cattle numbers pushing prices higher, it’s the strong demand.

“This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven,” says Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax. “Our per capita supplies were flat last year. They’re going to be flat again this year. And yet we’ve had a market that’s gone from a $1.75 to $2.25. That’s all been demand driven with what we’ve seen throughout the industry.”

The incredible demand is pushing beef demand to its highest level in nearly 40 years.

“Beef demands that are a 37-year high,” he says. “And I think when people think about demand, obviously quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially.”

As record-high cattle prices also push the cost of beef higher, that would push consumers to eat more pork and chicken in the past. But it’s a trend Tonsor is not largely seeing this time around.

“We see some of that, but not nearly as much as you might think. So, there’s less of that adjustment than historically we would have seen,” Tonsor says. “This is 100% Glynn’s opinion, but I think habits are a little stickier. Persistence of an item in your meal is a little sticker than in the past. Meat is an ingredient, not just the center of the plate. Higher beef prices have not elevated chicken demand as people have expected, and I think it’s because the consumer substitution effects, they exist, but they’re not as strong as they were 20 years ago.”

As consumers crave more protein, it’s a bright spot for all of livestock with many hopeful this isn’t just a trend but a permanent fixture on consumers’ plates.

Consumers Are Driving Sustainability Initiatives

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 21:21:35 GMT

By Heather Gieseke

When it comes to sustainability initiatives, many farmers believe it’s politics driving carbon strategies and programs.

True, climate change and politics have become interconnected. Climate-smart grants, for example, have incentivized businesses to reduce carbon emissions.

But it’s consumers inducing U.S. companies to carry out these initiatives. Today’s shoppers want to know about the climate impacts or the humanitarian elements behind how their food is grown or services are delivered.

Purchasing Power Change

Sustainability is also important among younger generations, who will soon have most of the purchasing power in the U.S.

“Companies that understand these trends, and create truly sustainable brands that make good on their promises to people and the planet, will seize advantage from brands that make flimsy claims or have not invested sufficiently in sustainability,” reports the Harvard Business Review.

Products making environmental, social and governance-related claims averaged 28% cumulative growth between 2018 to 2022, versus 20% for products that didn’t, according to McKinsey & Company.

It’s important to note these sustainability initiatives are completely voluntary. They’re not being driven by government requirements but by consumer trends. That should give farmers more confidence in the increased opportunities ahead for incorporating climate-smart practices.

Pay-Off for Farmers

It’s also important to keep in mind there are additional rewards beyond reducing emissions or taking advantage of government programs or supply-chain premiums. Sustainability practices take time, learning and adjustment, but they can bring significant on-farm benefits, such as soil health, improved water quality and availability, reduced expenses and, ultimately, greater productivity on your farm.

The shift in purchasing power, the drive for transparency and the growing passion for food’s journey is certain to continue driving increased demand for sustainable products that are more than just a label. Increased transparency across the supply chain is resulting in meaningful and measurable stories of how sustainable, climate-smart products are better than their less sustainable counterparts.

Farmers should be increasingly aware of how you, too, can create your own measurable stories, whether it’s selling carbon offsets you’re generating on your farm or earning premiums for grain produced with fewer emissions than your neighbor down the road.

These changes are valuable both on and off the farm and will continue to be there in the future.

No one knows better than you that the future of your farm depends on balancing practices and profits that sustain your land, resources and family . The stakes are evolving based on weather patterns, technology, market demand and more. What actions are you taking to remain resilient?

8 Factors Shaping the Rural Economy in 2024

Mon, 18 Dec 2023 16:31:33 GMT

CoBank has released their 2024 outlook report , which takes a look at the key themes the organization expects to shape agricultural and the rural economy in the coming year.

Director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Rob Fox shares that while the U.S. economy is still in good shape overall, high prices are expected to continue to take a toll.

Here are the top eight factors to watch in 2024.

1. Global Slowdown
Global growth in 2023 is estimated at 2.5%, which is less than half of the average growth between 2000 to 2018. This trend is expected to continue into next year.

CoBank recommends accounting for permanently slower global economic growth in your business plan moving forward.

2. Prices Remain Elevated
While inflation and the unemployment rate are down, higher prices appear to be sticking.

According to the report, the price of food at home has risen by 25% in the past three years and has affected consumer shopping behavior as a result. Retail spending has fallen in all but two months through the past year – which is expected to continue.

“Consumers are increasingly feeling the pinch of higher prices for food, housing and other essential goods. People have anchored mental expectations about what prices should be and those anchors take a long time to move,” Fox says. “Consumers are beginning to realize some prices aren’t going back to where they were three years ago and changing their purchasing behaviors to reduce spending. That will create stronger headwinds for the U.S. economy in 2024.”

3. Slowed Government Progress Continues
With slim majorities in both the House and Senate, shutdown deadlines continue to loom. Little progress has been made on major legislation such as the Farm Bill.

While CoBank shares the work already put into the Farm Bill could incentivize committees to pass it before 2025, the election of a new Senate Chair and the inexperience of many members of Congress may limit progress.

4. Lower Profitability Resulting From Several Factors
Commodity prices have seen the effect on high interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar and the resiliency of the U.S. economy. And despite the drop in fertilizer prices, the cost of production for agriculture commodities remains high.

CoBank is anticipating ag commodities to benefit from more upside price risk than down in 2024 due to tight inventories and a strong El Nino weather pattern during the growing season.

5. An Increase of Planted Soybean Acres
An expansion of soybean acreage is expected for two reasons: 2023’s smaller soybean harvest in the U.S. and an increase in biofuel demand.

USDA’s early release of its Agricultural Projections to 2033 points to planted soybean acreage rising 4% YoY to 87 million acres this spring.

Current 2024 futures prices suggest a decline in prices for the sector, but the outlook relies heavily on the value of the U.S. dollar, conditions of wheat in Russia and South America’s corn and soybean harvests.

6. Livestock Growth Plans Put On Hold
Lower feed costs and domestic demand should help profitability a bit in the livestock sector, but costs are still high. CoBank expects the industry to focus heavily on efficiency, technology and risk management.

7. Uncertainty In The Dairy Industry
Increased prices for consumers could keep sales growth at a slow rate, though they’re still expected to grow. International demand will play a large role in profitability and lower feed costs paired with improved cow productivity should increase milk production to meet the need.

8. Power, Energy And Broadband Sectors Face Obstacles
Global conflicts create uncertainty for commodity markets and energy prices. While oil prices have fallen by 5% in the fourth quarter, CoBank does not anticipate this environment to last.

As for broadband, investment continues to flow into the industry. However, it will not be without challenges due to a tight labor market, tight credit conditions and a difficult permit process.

Click here to read CoBank’s full report.

What is the Impact on Dairy Sales When Consumers are Feeling the Pinch?

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 14:50:25 GMT

Americans are feeling the financial pinch as they go into the Holiday season to pay for just about everything. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total household debt rose by 1.3% to reach $17.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2023. Also documented is outstanding credit card debt totaling $1.1 trillion at the end of the third quarter, up 17% from last year and up 34% versus two years ago.

“About 8% of accounts are delinquent 30 plus days, the most in more than a decade,” says Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights. “Consumers have used credit to preserve spending in the face of inflation.”

Plourd also points out that restaurant traffic is sagging.

“Of course, people are going to eat and will include dairy products in their diet, but it is hard to believe demand will be great so long as consumers are feeling a general pinch,” he says.

Ben Laine, a senior dairy sector analyst with Terrain, says the levels of consumer spending on food at home compared with spending on food away from home have implications for dairy markets because people consume more dairy products when dining out or ordering takeout than when they prepare their own food.

“Looking ahead to 2024, the USDA predicts that overall food prices will increase 2.1%,” he says. “That’s slightly below the long-term average but comes in the wake of a couple of high-inflation years. Prices for food prepared at home are expected to increase by only 1% while the price of food away from home is predicted to increase by 4.4%. Even if the amount of food in each channel holds steady, the trend of a greater share of spending devoted to food away from home is likely to continue.”

Barbara O’Brien, president and CEO of Dairy Management Inc. (DMI), says that retail dairy demand, particularly domestically, is looking good.

“Some real shining stars for dairy are cheese, yogurt and even cottage cheese which is up double digits,” she notes. “Cream is doing really well, too.”

Kerry DeLaney with General Mills dairy business shared his company’s vision and commitment to driving growth in the yogurt category. He said they are planning to launch a new high-protein, low-sugar yogurt product in 2024 and shares that yogurt overall is in a “really, really good position.”

Food Inflation Outlook for 2023 Drops Below Previous Projections

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 20:34:01 GMT

USDA expects food price inflation for 2023 to be slightly lower at 5.8% compared to the previous projection of 5.9%.

The grocery store price inflation forecast has been significantly reduced by a whole percentage point to 4.9%. Food price inflation for 2024 is expected to considerably decrease compared to 2023, with an expected rise of 2.4%.

Restaurant prices are predicted to increase slightly less than before, now at 7.5% as compared to previous 7.7%. For 2024, a 6.1% rise in restaurant prices is anticipated.

Interestingly, some food categories are expected to experience price declines in 2024, including pork, eggs, and dairy products. Notably, egg prices have shown significant volatility, escalating by as much as 37.8% in February 2023, yet ultimately expected to only rise 2% over the year.

USDA’s initial forecasts often undergo revisions, as seen in the fluctuations in 2023 food price inflation predictions beginning from July 2022. This dynamic forecasting, which includes various inputs like energy, labor, and maintenance costs, particularly affects restaurant prices.

For 2024, USDA projects that food price inflation will be lower than that seen in 2023 and significantly lower than the rise seen in 2022, though these are initial forecasts and subject to changes as more data comes in. However, despite the reductions, consumers will continue to pay more than the 20-year average for all types of food, marking a four-year trend. The anticipated reductions have been tied to interest-rate increases initiated by the Fed.

3 Trends that Will Drive the Food System of the Future

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 18:30:46 GMT

These three tenets will drive the industry and impact farms

The food system is being reimagined today and farmers can benefit by thinking about how to improve their ability to take advantage of opportunities in the process, says Rob Dongoski, partner and food and agribusiness leader at Ernst and Young. He says the food system will be based around the following three tenets.

1. Consumer Centric
This transition was underway and received a big boost from the COVID-19 pandemic. Dongoski anticipates the transformation will be significant in the next five to 10 years.

Consumers are increasingly listening to what product marketers are telling them rather than scientists.

“Marketers are winning the communication battle because they are better funded,” he says.

Part of what’s at play is significant changes in consumer demographics. Dongoski says the most populous generations in the workforce today are Millennials and Gen Z.

“While Boomers and Gen Xers think about cars and houses as status symbols, Gen Z and Millennials think, ‘I grocery shop at Whole Foods. I cook at home. I go to the farmer’s market.’ Their experience with food is very different,” he says.

2. Planet Friendly

“Farmers are land stewards as land continues to be the largest asset on their balance sheet,” Dongoski says. “As their stewardship practices become more understood by consumers, I think it will bring new light to the definition of sustainable food.”

Still, he does believe farmers have opportunities to be more conscious of practices that are planet friendly.

“There are many opportunities to care for livestock differently, for example,” he says. “The pendulum can shift to extremes, but I do think we can be smarter.”

3. Connected System

“When I think about the future of food, I believe the food system will look retro,” Dongoski says. “The future is a place farmers and consumers have been before.”

Decades ago, he says, consumers had a butcher and a baker on the corner, and milk was delivered to their home. Consumers knew their food producers and processors.

In the future, that personal connection won’t be based on geography, instead it will be based on data.

Today consumers get glimpses of farmers’ production practices in grocery store aisles and on menus, as stores and restaurants feature names, photographs and information on the farmers who produced the food.

“That’s how consumers will have insights into your operations and practices, which will influence consumers,” he says.

Listen to Rob Dongoski share trends on the “Farming the Countryside” podcast:

Read more stories from the 2023 Top Producer Summit:

Preventative Maintenance for Your People: How to Reduce Turnover and Boost Morale

How to Run An Innovation Sprint on Your Farm

Nominate Outstanding Farmers for Awards from Top Producer

Take Time to Celebrate Accomplishments

5 Business Principles That Define Success

Farming Boom or Bust in the Decade Ahead? How to Manage Price Cycles

Be Inspired by Five Remarkable Farm Operations

Ideas Big and Small: Create a Culture of Creativity on Your Farm

Virginia Family Ice Cream Business Gives People a Reason to Stop

Wed, 31 May 2023 15:09:12 GMT

The Fields of Dreams slogan, ‘Build it and they will come,’ rings true for Virginia dairy farmer Ken Smith. But he would also add, ‘Give them a reason to stop by.’ The fourth-generation dairy farmer was referring to his quickly growing ice cream business that he and his wife, Pam, and their daughter, Amy, built in 2010 at a one-stoplight location off Route 29 that is near their family dairy. A true family affair, their daughter, Taylor, makes all of Moo Thru’s ice cream.

In 2006, the family purchased an old truck stop property nearby the family dairy farm and began building their ice cream business, Moo Thru. Ken shares that the opening week, they ran out of ice cream.

“We sold 15,000 cones in the first three weeks,” he says. “People asked if we’d franchise this, and we’d only been open 60 days.”

The Smiths sold the family dairy, Cool Lawn Holsteins, a 1,000-cow dairy with a 30,000-lbs. plus herd average to their son, Ben, so their attention could go towards their ice cream endeavor.

A Little Vision

Moo Thru started as an antique building that was modified to resemble a barn. Ken shares that the idea for this all began on a hot Saturday afternoon when he was sitting at an intersection with a load of haylage.

“I was miserable,” he recalls, sharing that others driving by were smiling and seemed happy.

“They have weekends to spend money,” he says, and his ah-ha moment went off.

The idea was born to start construction on Moo Thru, although Ken says neighbors thought he was crazy to tackle this new adventure.

“Everyone thought I was nuts and that no one was going to come to this. That there are no other stores and no other conveniences nearby,” he says. “Nothing is out here. Why would they stop?”

It’s a good thing that Ken possessed a bubbly personality and the ability to think differently than most. He says if you give people a reason to stop, they’ll stop.

“They’ve got money in their pockets. They’re going somewhere to spend that money,” he says.

Fast forward to today and Moo Thru has been recognized as the best ice cream place in Virginia, an accolade that the Smith family is proud of.

Continued Success

“We do the promotion, and we eat ice cream and we have tested our product against everyone else,” Ken shares. “The only way I can keep selling my product is knowing how I compare to the rest.”

Today, Moo Thru has a drive-through, which Ken says grew their business, especially during Covid.

“Nobody could go anywhere, but they could go through a drive-thru and people would sit and wait for ice cream,” he shares. “There would be 50 to 60 cars deep and people would wait in line for over an hour.”

This caused a backup that blocked the intersection which eventually led to the Smith family hiring local deputies to help control traffic.

While Route 29 still only has one stoplight today, those traveling 60 mph on the two-lane road can see the hopping attraction that causes many to make the turn and stop in and enjoy what the Smith family has built.

“They don’t have to wait for the light to turn red to notice,” Ken notes. “They make the turn.”

Moo Thru now has a food truck that can be utilized at events, as well as four additional Virginia locations in Charlottesville, Hillsboro, Winchester and Warrenton. All locations serve ice cream made from the family herd at Cool Lawn Farm.

Here’s Why Grocery Stores Could be Smaller in the Future

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 20:12:33 GMT

Up until 2020, food retailers had lived by the motto ‘go big or go home’ in terms of grocery store construction. For years, it seemed as if grocery store chains were in a rat race for who could build the bigger store. But as real estate prices skyrocket and labor becomes harder to find, the blueprints for future grocery stores may soon start to downsize.

Several grocery store chains are already in the works of downsizing some of their future stores , including:

Target
Meijer
Publix
Wegmans Food Markets
Sprouts Farmers Market
Schnucks
Fareway
Lowes Foods

But why go smaller? According to Progressive Grocer, grocers are re-evaluating their physical-store strategies as they look to maximize profits, keep shoppers loyal and drive sales amid escalating expense pressures. While large grocery store chains like Walmart and Costco are known for their tremendous size, other chains are looking at building smaller stores to help keep costs under control.

Currently, the average size of a grocery store in the U.S. is currently about 38,000 sq. ft., according to Cuhaci Peterson, a Maitland, Fla.-based commercial architectural firm. However, that number has been steadily declining for years, with small-format grocery stores now ranging in size between 12,000 sq. ft. and 25,000 sq. ft., and even smaller in urban markets.

While large grocery stores won’t being going away anytime soon, don’t be surprised if you start to see smaller stores open in your neighborhood. They just might become the new ‘normal’ size.

Recession or Not: The Consumer Has Reached Their Breaking Point

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:39:40 GMT

Whether we are in a recession or not is to be determined, but I think we all can agree that we are feeling the impacts of a looming recession. Tanner Ehmke, a leading dairy economist with CoBank, says that we are not in a recession—not quite just yet.

“We’re going to be in one, probably soon,” he says. “That’s mixed news for those of us in agriculture. We want a strong consumer to buy our products. At the same time, we’re also competing for labor.”

Speaking of consumers, Ehmke says they are feeling the pinch every time they walk into the grocery store. The consumer has hit the level of how much price absorption they can take.

“We’ve hit that level,” Ehmke says. “The consumer is not going to take any more cost increase.”

The savings that the consumer was able to accumulate throughout the pandemic has dwindled thanks to higher fuel, higher rents, higher groceries and more.

“Through higher costs of everything now, those savings have been depleted,” Ehmke says. “Credit card debt is now going up. And that’s an indication for a lot of people that they’ve run out of cash.”

With all that being said, people no longer can absorb higher costs. Ehmke says that lighter foot traffic is seen in some grocery stores, while discount retailers have seen a significant increase in foot traffic.

“Even your wealthier consumers have decided that they cannot afford cost increases anymore,” he shares. “For their shopping, they’re trading down from branded products to private label store brands. They’re trading down from premium products to lower-priced commodity products. After they’ve done all of those things -- shifted retailers, shifted from brands to private label, shifted to commodity versus premium -- the next step then is for them to reduce how much volume they buy.”

Mike North, president with Ever.Ag, concurs with Ehmke and says that the looming recession is naturally top of mind for everyone. North also says that while consumers are very notably showing changes in spending, the dairy case has performed very well relative to other protein categories.

“Moreover, down trading in the food service universe can still include a lot of cheese as fine dining frequency is substituted with quick casual and delivery,” North says. “However, this may come at the expense of other fats/creams.”

Ehmke says it is going to be a balancing act between the farmers and processors going forward.

“You simply can’t pass that cost on to the consumer anymore,” he says. “It’s just going to compress margins.”

North says yes, the recession is a big story and advises producers to be mindful of normal seasonal demands that will taper into the new calendar year.

All Hail The Quesalupa

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:08:35 GMT

Earlier this year I visited Taco Bell. Not the one in my hometown, where they should build a shrine of appreciation to my teenage son who thinks the Crunchwrap Supreme is a ‘light snack’, but the headquarters near Los Angeles.

I didn’t go because I had a burning desire to travel, or to see Los Angeles, or potentially eat copious amounts of Taco Bell food (although that last part was a great incentive). I did it because I had heard a lot about the partnerships Dairy Management Inc. (DMI) has made with prominent retail brands, and I wanted a first-person experience of how these relationships work.

I also went because I know checkoff programs across livestock and crop markets are under constant scrutiny to prove their value, and I wanted to give the folks at DMI a chance to demonstrate theirs. It’s hard for producers to justify the 15-cent per cwt deduction from their milk check when times are tough, like it’s been for the past few years. That investment in a national checkoff program doesn’t seem like much, but it can be significant when every penny is pinched to make ends meet. Producers find it difficult to look past short-term pain to see long-term reward.

Part of that long-term reward is happening at Taco Bell. Part of the family of YUM! brands that includes other restaurant chains like KFC and Pizza Hut, Taco Bell is a huge brand. More than 350 franchise organizations operate more than 7,000 restaurants that serve more than 40 million customers each week, just in the U.S. Another 500 restaurants are in nearly 30 countries worldwide.

DMI began a partnership with Taco Bell back in late 2012. Since then Taco Bell has grown the total volume of dairy products through its restaurants by more than 4% annually, and has reached double digit growth in several of those years. More than 95% of the products on the Taco Bell menu contain dairy products.

To give you an idea of what kind of an impact a company like Taco Bell can have on dairy sales, the Quesalupa was launched over a five-week promotional period. More than 60 million pounds of milk equivalents were sold over that time period, mostly in the form of cheese and sour cream.

During my visit to Taco Bell headquarters I had the opportunity to meet with two of the people directly responsible for bringing new products like the Quesalupa to life. Kimber Lew and Mike Ciresi are two dairy food scientists, employed by DMI, who work onsite at Taco Bell to support product development.

Innovation at Taco Bell follows a stringent path. New product ideas are first developed in test kitchens by a team of product developers. If the chefs can make it the product goes before a series of taste panels where people judge the product on taste, smell, mouth feel and other characteristics. Even if a product passes those tests, it has to be able to be made in regular restaurant kitchens. Several ‘back of store’ kitchens are set up within the headquarters to make sure workers can make the product effectively and in a timely manner.

If a new product passes through all of those tests, and supply arrangements and any equipment adjustments can be made, it enters regional test markets to determine how well it will perform with consumers.
As you can imagine, many more product ideas are generated than what actually make it into restaurants. And of those new products, most contain dairy.

“If it doesn’t have cheese on it, it’s not worth making,” says Ciresi. “Consumers love the taste of cheese so we try to integrate it into everything we create.”

The creation process that takes a new product from idea to something that consumers can buy takes a considerable amount of time and patience. But the effort is worth it when a new product does well in the marketplace.

“It’s really a labor of love,” says Lew. “It’s so gratifying to see an item on the menu that we had a hand in developing.”

For Taco Bell employees, the relationship with DMI has been key to making product innovation happen.
“We wouldn’t have such dairy-focused product innovation had it not been for the work that DMI has done,” says Nola Krieg, product development manager, food innovation at Taco Bell. “We really appreciate the partnership with DMI and the ability to have food scientists on our campus to help drive new product development.”

Through their association with DMI, Lew and Ciresi have an appreciation of how their work impacts dairy producers. DMI representatives regularly bring in dairy producers to tour the facility and talk with product developers and nutritionists. Likewise, Lew and Ciresi get to visit dairy farms to talk to producers first-hand and learn more about what it takes to produce the milk that goes into the dairy products they use.

“Going out to farms, you appreciate the work that is done on dairy farms to produce milk,” Ciresi says. “And getting to talk to producers helps us realize the importance of the work we’re doing to provide a market for that milk.”

Relationships like the one DMI has with Taco Bell happens with other large retail brands, too, including Pizza Hut, McDonald’s, Domino’s and others. By working with these retail partners, DMI is able to increase the use of dairy products by these companies and impact sales of those products to millions of consumers. This approach has proven to be more effective than spending millions on an ad campaign to try and influence each of those consumers individually.

It’s one of the smart ways that DMI is proving their worth as a steward of the funds dairy producers contribute each day. So go to a Taco Bell, order up a Quesadilla and appreciate the work DMI representatives put into making it happen.

Oxpeckers And Zebras

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 05:50:39 GMT

There are dozens of instances where smaller animals coexist with much larger animals. African oxpeckers, for example, feed on the backs of zebras, elephants, hippopotamuses and other large African animals, according to Cosmos magazine. The relationship isn’t all symbiotic, as the Oxpeckers are actually vampire birds that do eat ticks, but then suck the blood out of open-tick wounds.

Over the past several weeks I’ve sat in on presentations by a number of small, startup companies that produce and market alternative food products. One product was produced from grass-fed Guernseys. Another yogurt was made from family-owned organic dairies in Oregon.

One of the more interesting presentations came from Miyoko Schinner, CEO and founder of Miyoko’s, a company that makes vegan cheeses. We decided to interview Schinner and provide her remarks for everyone to see. You can read her comments here .

As you read the story, you may feel your heartbeat accelerate, your face get red and an anger well up inside you, because she says things that drive dairy people nuts. The fact that she calls her vegan products cheese, for example, even though there’s no dairy in them. Or that they milk cashews. Or that she calls our current methods of food production unsustainable.

One might ask why in the world we decided to print such false information. Good question.

A colleague once told me that it is important to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. I think what he meant was we need to know as much as possible about those who have opposing views so we can see things from their viewpoint, and thereby learn in the process.

I’m not calling Schinner and her company enemies, by any means. I think they are more like the oxpecker, living off of the much larger dairy industry. Had the dairy industry not laid the brand development groundwork for things like artisan cheese and yogurt it would be hard to imagine that Schinner’s product or other products in that category would be successful.

That being said, I would assume that the larger dairy industry derives at least some benefit from these smaller, niche market products. If someone is eating yogurt because it comes from milk from grass-fed, locally owned Guernseys, at least they are eating dairy products. And maybe if someone eats a vegan cheese that tastes like high-end cheddar, they will at least appreciate what full-fledged cheddar tastes like.

Even though the dairy industry is huge and these startups are very small in comparison, it does accentuate the fact that a considerable effort needs to be made to educate consumers about modern agricultural practices. Swisslane Farms has developed a Dairy Discovery center to educate kids and their parents about life on a dairy. It’s also comforting to have experts like those at the National Dairy Council to make sure dairy is prominent in dairy nutrition guidelines.

While I appreciate that these small companies are trying to carve out a niche for themselves, I could do without the disparaging remarks these companies make against modern production agriculture. They’re playing on uneducated consumer emotions to gain differentiation, and that’s not right. After all, you’d never hear the oxpecker say a disparaging word about a zebra.

What do you think? Should dairy alternative companies be allowed to market their products as dairy? Send me your comments at mopperman@farmjournal.com

I Drink fairlife And I Feel Good About It

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:01:36 GMT

Last night I went to the store and bought a half-gallon of fairlife chocolate milk. Then I went home, poured a glass and drank it. And I felt good about it.

Recently a video was released showing some pretty despicable treatment of calves by employees at Fair Oaks Farms. Fair Oaks Farms has a connection to fairlife. The owners of Fair Oaks, Mike and Sue McCloskey, started Select Milk cooperative, which partnered with Coca Cola to create and market fairlife. The product has been one of the most successful fluid milk innovations in the history of the dairy industry.

The activist group that produced the video is calling for a boycott of fairlife as a way to protest the acts shown in the video and in some way punish Fair Oaks for allowing those acts to happen.

On the contrary, I poured that glass of milk and drank it because I support Fair Oaks. I did it because of what I know, not because of what I don’t know.

I know the practices shown on the video were conducted by people who have no regard for animal care. I also know that within the employee pool at Fair Oaks, they were the exception and not the rule. I sense this because three of the four employees were fired even before the video was released because other employees adhered to the “see it, say it” rule and reported them for other animal abuse violations.

By the way, the undercover activist who shot the video obviously did not adhere to that rule.

I am also able to put context around the footage shown in the video and, therefore, assume that what happened was an isolated incident. That undercover employee collected a vast amount of video over their several months of employment. From that vast amount of video they were able to find a few minutes of abuse. Let’s see the rest of the footage that shows animals being cared for the right way.

I also bought fairlife because I know that when bad things like this happen, boycotting a product is a way of turning your back on those actions. You’re angry about what you saw, and therefore you’re going to punish the company responsible. As you walk away, you’ve done nothing to effect change, in fact you just exacerbated the problem rather than being a part of the solution.

People who boycott brands act the same as the cooperatives and retail brands that cut off the milk supply from dairies that have been part of undercover videos. I know why they do it – to appease consumer outcry. But it tells me that those brands have no real vested interest in dairy farmers or the animals on dairy farms. If they did, they would help work with those dairies to make sure changes are made so those heinous actions never happen again. Instead backs are turned and, for all they know, those actions continue unabated.

Wouldn’t it be great if the folks at fairlife came out and said that they stand beside Fair Oaks Farms? That they know that the incidents were isolated and done by rogue employees and not a reflection of what happens every day on the farm? Wouldn’t it be great if they vowed to work with Fair Oaks to make sure this didn’t happen again? Wouldn’t it be great if they were a voice of reason and not a voice of reaction? Maybe someday a brand will have enough gumption to take that stand.

Until then, I’ll do my part to support the dairy producers who make the milk that goes into great products like fairlife. And I’ll do it with a clear conscious, knowing that I’m supporting a solution, not growing the problem.

What do you think of the Fair Oaks situation? Are you boycotting fairlife? Let me know at mopperman@farmjournal.com

Check out these related headlines:

Activist Video Shows Abuse At Fair Oaks Farms

Chicago Grocery Chain Drops fairlife Following Activist Video

Also, I discussed the Fair Oaks video and response on Overhe(a)rd, the Farm Journal Livestock podcast, here:

Government Price Controls Didn't Work The First Time, And They Won't Now Either

Do you ever get the feeling that you may be living in a time warp? I mean, doesn’t it seem just a little weird that bell-bottom pants and Marcia Brady hairstyles are the latest rage? I don’t know about you, but one trip through the 1970s was good enough for me.

Unfortunately, bad fashion sense and bad hairdos are not the only bad idea that has been resurrected from this tumultuous decade. Recently, the idea of reviving government price controls on food and other consumer staples has been injected into the public forum.

Why Now?
It’s an election year, and a presidential election year at that. We all know politicians will say almost anything if it will mean just one more vote come election day.

On Friday, August 16, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris floated a public policy that hasn’t been tried since the Nixon administration. To address rising food prices, Harris proposed a federal ban on price gouging, focusing on “excessive” and “unfair” mergers and acquisitions that give big food companies the power to “jack up” food and grocery prices.

There is a reason that such a heavy-hand tampering by the government in the supply and demand workings of the marketplace was banished from the political landscape as we know it. Former president Richard Nixon tried it, and it failed miserably! It would have been prudent for Vice President Harris to have brushed up on her history before rolling out this bad batch of political candy to lure the last group of undecided voters.

The twist of historical irony is that Nixon rolled out his first series of economic control measures, including wage and price freezes, almost 53 years to the day that Harris publicly floated her ideas. On August 15, 1971, in a nationally televised address, Nixon announced, “I am today ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States.”

After a 90-day freeze, increases would have to be approved by a pay board and a price commission, with an eye toward eventually lifting controls — conveniently, after the 1972 election. Unfortunately the American people would pay the price — but not until after Nixon coasted to a landslide re-election in 1972 over Democratic Senator George McGovern.

Not Then, Not Now
By the time Nixon reimposed a temporary freeze in June 1973, Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw explain in “The Commanding Heights: Battle for the World Economy,” it was obvious price controls didn’t work: “Ranchers stopped shipping their cattle to market, farmers drowned their chickens, and consumers emptied the shelves of supermarkets.”

When price controls were implemented in 1971, inflation stood at 5.8%. By the summer of 1975 it had ballooned to 8.7%. For the rest of the decade, inflation totally derailed the U.S. economy. The real pain came with what it took to ultimately slow that train. The Federal Reserve took the Fed Funds rate from a low of 3.75% in 1971 to an astronomical 19.29% in 1981.

For U.S. agriculture, these were the worst of times. As interest rates rose and land and commodity prices bottomed, U.S. agriculture endured one of the darkest periods in modern history. The final governmental gut punch came in 1979 with President Jimmy Carter imposing a grain embargo on the Soviet Union, resulting in a 20% decline in agricultural exports.

Farmers saw the rally cry to “plant fencerow to fencerow” and “feed the world” turn into prayers so that they could feed their family. Bankruptcies and suicides became all too common as the fabric of rural America ripped apart. Government had failed them, and their best hope was that Willie Nelson would show up to do another Farm Aid concert in their back 40.

With farm income expected to record its largest year-to-year dollar drop in history, now is not the time to roll out love me ’til election day economic proposals. Still reeling from supply chain chaos caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agriculture is in a weakened state.

The Real Drivers
It is important that all links of the U.S. food supply chain remain strong. With average profits of less than 3% for farms and only 1.6% for grocery stores, one has to wonder who the government is going to have to squeeze if price controls were implemented. Vice President Harris specifically pointed her finger at large corporate food processing companies and suppliers.

Although the Harris proposal was light on specifics, it marshals the Federal Trade Commission and state attorney generals with new authority to “impose strict new penalties” on companies that price gouge. She also said her administration would address “unfair mergers and acquisitions” that contribute to higher priced food and groceries.

One would hope if these government agencies were currently doing their day job, then the above mentioned issues should not be a problem in the first place. We don’t need a governmental “grocery czar” telling us what a box of Cheerios should or shouldn’t cost.

Our government needs to look in the mirror to see the key factors that have really driven up grocery prices. Energy costs and interest rates are two of the biggest. Both have a huge impact on food production costs and the price paid at the grocery store. Over the past four years, the consumer price index for energy has risen 32%. In that same time, the prime interest rate has gone from 3.25% to 8.50%.

Even Captain Obvious could connect the economic dots from the current administration’s policies and legislative actions to the reality that is happening to consumers at the checkout line. On day one in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, and he and Harris have continued for the past three-and-a-half years to throttle the traditional fossil fuel industry at every turn. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office projects that under Biden’s four-year term $7.902 trillion will have been added to our overall national debt. Such actions and polices have been a lead foot on the gas pedal that is driving inflation.

It’s That Bad
So, before we grant our government Wizard of Oz powers over the nation’s food supply chain, it might behoove Vice President Harris and her economic advisers to address the root cause of inflation. Instead of trying to fix it artificially through failed policies of the past and election year pandering, they should address the real issues behind high food prices and inflation as a whole. When friendly press allies such as the New York Times, Washington Post and CNN all shot the Harris plan down from the moment it left her lips — you know it’s bad. The Washington Post called it a “populist gimmick”, and personal finance guru Dave Ramsey said, “It’s not sustainable because it’s artificial.”

Let us hope and pray that such policies will forever remain as a footnote in our history books and not become part of our future economic reality. Whenever I hear something like this I’m always reminded of what Ronald Reagan considered the nine most terrifying words of the English language, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help!”