COVID

The Reasons Behind the Painful Surge in Grocery Prices

Wed, 17 Jul 2024 15:45:17 GMT

The post-Covid surge in grocery prices has been a noticeable and financially painful part of the rising U.S. cost of living. Shoppers couldn’t miss the sharp price increases, such as the doubling cost of a can of tomatoes or the significant rise in beef prices.

Economist Thomas Klitgaard from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyzed the causes of this increase . Here are the key findings:

Food prices

(Liberty Street Economics)

Stable prices before pandemic: The consumer price index (CPI) for food-at-home was stable for the five years prior to the pandemic, indicating little change in grocery bills from 2014 to 2019.

Sharp increases during pandemic:
• 2020: Prices rose by 4%.
• 2021: Prices increased by 6%.
• 2022: Prices jumped by 12%.

Overall, the food-at-home index increased by 25% from Q4 2019 to Q1 2023.

Key components driving price increases:
• Commodity Prices: The underlying price of commodities, especially grains, saw significant increases. This rise cascaded down to other food items like beef, pork, poultry, eggs, and dairy products.
• Wages: The wage bill at supermarkets rose substantially, contributing to higher grocery prices.

Minor Impact:

• Price gouging: Klitgaard’s analysis suggests that price gouging by companies was not a significant factor in the price increases.

Wages

(Liberty Street Economics )

Bottom line:

The surge in grocery prices was driven mainly by substantial increases in commodity prices and supermarket wages, rather than price gouging. The stability of grocery prices before the pandemic underscores the dramatic impact of these factors during the early 2020s. While grain prices have slumped since 2022, the wage bill keeps going up — with average hourly earnings up 6% in May from a year before. And Klitgaard warns that may bode ill for shoppers going forward. “An open question is whether grocery inflation can stay as moderate as it has been since early 2023 with grocery worker wage inflation still elevated,” he wrote.

Princess Kay of the Milky Way Coronation To Go On Despite Pandemic

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 18:07:39 GMT

Even though the Minnesota State Fair has been cancelled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 67^th coronation of Princess Kay of the Milky Way will go on.

The coronation is scheduled for August 12th at a private banquet at the Minnesota State Fairgrounds and likenesses of Princess Kay and the nine of finalists will be carved in butter beginning the next day. Live updates of the sculpting will be streamed on the Princess Kay Facebook page each day.

Minnesota sculptor Gerry Kulzer, an artist and teacher from Litchfield, Minn., will be sculpting the butterhead likenesses. Judging of the 67^th Princess Ky will take place August 10 – 12. You can learn about the 10 candidates here .

Midwest Dairy sponsors the Princess Kay program. Social distance guidelines will be followed for all in-person events.

UPDATED: Trump adds $1 billion to food box program

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 18:06:45 GMT

(UPDATED Aug. 27) President Trump has added $1 billion to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farmers to Families Food Box Program and extended it beyond the end of October.

The White House announced the development Aug. 24 when Trump, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and presidential advisor Ivanka Trump toured Flavor 1st Growers and Packers, River Mills, N.C. The company has been packing and distributing food boxes through the program.

“From day one, my administration has been determined to protect our nation’s incredible farmers,” Trump said in a news release about the $1 billion addition.

The program originally authorized $3 billion for the boxes and is expected to spend a total of $2.67 billion from mid-May through the end of August, covering the first two rounds of the program. The application process for a third round for $500 million to $700 million was announced July 24, and those contracts go through Oct. 31.

As of Aug. 27, 74.5 million boxes had been distributed, according to the USDA.

The boxes of fresh produce, dairy and meat have gone to more than 10,000 food banks and nonprofit organizations. In addition, the White House said thousands of jobs have been saved or created, according to the release, including more than 5,000 in the food distribution industry.

On Aug. 25, the USDA published a list of companies whose Basic Ordering Agreements (BOAs) have been approved for the third round of awards. All of the 47 companies plan to pack combination boxes of produce, milk/dairy products and cooked meat; the USDA said it would allow produce-only boxes but would place a priority on the combination boxes.

The BOAs are part of a two-step process for USDA approval in the program, and are designed to ensure the distributors and intended food bank/nonprofit recipients have agreements about how the distribution will take place. It will also ensure that regions of the country that didn’t receive adequate food boxes will be prioritized.

“PMA applauds the commitment from the administration to extend funding to the program and will share more details about the program as they become available,” Richard Owen, vice president of global membership and engagement at the Produce Marketing Association, said in a news release.

In a LinkedIn update to members, United Fresh Produce Association president and CEO Tom Stenzel praised the move.
“We commend the administration for taking this important step to continue this win-win-win program for farmers, distributors and families in need,” Stenzel said in the statement.

Related stories:

USDA accepting proposal for third round of food box program

Food box readies for sudden start

Packer Insight - Food Box Program plus creativity at retail

Employers Qualify for Tax Credit to Offset COVID-19 Paid Time Off

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 00:57:07 GMT

At this point in the pandemic, most employers have received a phone call that goes something like this. “Hi Boss, I was exposed to COVID-19. Do you want me to come in?” And in that moment, you run through 14,000 questions in your mind. Can we cover his or her schedule? Who had this person worked with before they knew they had been exposed? Can we afford to pay them for time spent at home? While those thoughts are going through your mind, your employee is worried about getting paid for required time off.

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) signed into law on March 18, 2020 provides that eligible employees are entitled to paid sick time because of COVID-19, and employers are eligible for a tax credit to offset the expense.

Who qualifies as an eligible employee, how much time do they get and at what rate? Under the FFCRA, employees are entitled to:

a. Up to 80 hours of paid sick leave at the employee’s regular rate of pay (up to a maximum of $511 per day) where the employee is unable to work because the employee is quarantined pursuant to government order, is advised by a health care provider to self-quarantine and/or experiencing COVID-19 symptoms and seeking a medical diagnosis; or

b. Up to 80 hours of paid sick leave at two-thirds the employee’s regular rate of pay (up to a maximum of $200 per day) because the employee must care for an individual subject to quarantine (pursuant to government order or advice of a health care provider), or to care for a child (under 18 years of age) whose school or child care provider is closed or unavailable for reasons related to COVID-19.

What is the tax credit for employers? The FFCRA provides eligible employers with payroll tax credits to cover 100% of the qualified sick leave wages and qualified family leave wages paid from April 1, 2020, through December 31, 2020.

The FFCRA payroll tax credit includes:

1) Qualified sick leave wages;

2) Qualified family wages;

3) Qualified health plan expenses; and

4) Medicare tax credit.

According to an advisory from tax accountancy CliftonLarsonAllen (CLA), qualified sick leave wages are wages an eligible employer is required to pay under FFCRA for paid sick leave. Qualified family leave wages are wages an eligible employer is required to pay under FFCRA for expanded family and medical leave.

The tax credits can be claimed three ways:

1. On the Form 941, Employer’s QUARTERLY Federal Tax Return;

2. Offsetting Federal employment tax deposits for the quarter (the employer must account for the reduction in deposits on the Form 941 for the quarter); or

3. Filing Form 7200, Advance Payment of Employer Credits Due to COVID-19.

CLA shares this example of how the claims process works.

Employer pays $15,000 in qualified sick leave wages and qualified family leave wages during the 3rd quarter of 2020. The employer is required to deposit $18,000 in Federal employment taxes (including taxes withheld from its employees) for the 3rd quarter of 2020. The employer may keep up to $15,000 of the $18,000 of taxes the employer was going to deposit but is required to deposit the remaining $3,000 on its required deposit date. The employer will account for the $15,000 when it files its Form 941 for the 3rd quarter of 2020.

For more information, including extended family and medical leave details included in the FFCRA contact your accountant.

Building COVID Confidence on the Farm

Mon, 19 Apr 2021 19:39:59 GMT

Even though anyone who is over the age of 16 in the U.S. is now eligible to receive a COVID vaccination, many who work on farms still have not signed up to receive one.

Dairy producer, Marianne Peterson of J.M. Peterson Farms Inc., located in Pine City, Minn., has effectively communicated with her workforce about COVID-19 since it began. “I would print handouts from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture and post them by the time clock, as well as hand them out to all of our employees,” she says.

Now that dairy farms are hitting their busy time of year, with many farmers heading to the fields, dairy farmers like Peterson cannot afford to have employees call in sick. Peterson, owns and operates a 400-cow dairy farm with her husband, Jeff, and their oldest son, Jacob, farms 2,500 acres an hour north of the Twin Cities. Between the two, the Petersons depend on the help of their 18 employees to run both the dairy and crop side of their farming business.

“We are already short on labor and we cannot have employees call in sick, especially as we get busy with spring fieldwork,” Peterson says.

Recently, one of Peterson’s employees tested positive for COVID-19 and had to quarantine away from the farm. “She got paid time off and once she tested negative, she was able to come back to work,” Peterson adds. “Thankfully, as a part-time calf feeder, she had limited exposure to other employees.”

To help bring COVID-19 awareness to the operation, Peterson visits her local public health Facebook page daily, copies the link and sends it out to her employees via group text.

“I try and not be pushy, but I want them to be aware of open vaccination appointments,” she explains. “There is no reason for someone who wants a vaccination to not to be able to get vaccinated. However, if an employee does not want to get vaccinated, as an employer, I have to respect that.”

In addition, Peterson offers to sit down with employees one-on-one to help them get signed up. While Peterson has yet to offer incentives for employees to get vaccinated, she is now considering it to help push those that are on the fence.

"$100 is a great incentive; it’s basically two tanks of gas,” Peterson states. “And really if one employee gets sick, it is likely another will, too, and we simply cannot afford to have that happen with an already shorthanded labor force.”

The Peterson family believes that building COVID confidence at the farm level reiterates that they care about their employees. “Farmers openly talk about safety on the farm, whether that is with equipment handling or stockman training,” Peterson says. “Keeping a healthy workforce is another way that we can provide farm safety.”

NMPF launches Cornorvirus Toolbox

Recently National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) launched their Cornorvirus Toolbox which illustrates their nationwide effort to promote vaccine confidence. “A healthy dairy workforce is essential to ensuring continuity of operations and a safe, plentiful food supply,” NMPF states.

The NMPF COVID toolbox suggests that farmers:

Lead by example; making sure you get vaccinated when it is your turn, and let your employees know you did.
Adapt key messages about COVID-19 vaccines to the language, tone, and format that will resonate with your employees.
Post workplace flyers, factsheets and info graphics to reinforce the safety and benefits of COVID-19 vaccines.
Invite vaccinated employees to share their experience with other employees.
Invite a local physician or other public health expert to speak with your employees about vaccines.

For more information on helping employees get vaccinated, visit COVID-19 Vaccination & the Dairy Workforce - NMPF .

World Milk Supply Grows in Pandemic

Wed, 03 Feb 2021 18:46:47 GMT

Despite the worst pandemic in more than a century that wreaked havoc in the global dairy sector, the world milk supply continued to increase. Government relief programs, retail channels, and overall demand were able to absorb much—but certainly not all—of the additional milk.

Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report, notes that “with the loss of dairy demand at foodservice, it is amazing that a home was found for much of 2020’s additional milk. Last year’s demand came in the form of government programs and elevated retail sales, along with strong purchases from key importing countries that were able to manage their Covid response well, such as China.”

Berning notes that China’s imports of skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) last year were lower than 2019’s record-high levels, after adjusting for leap year, but they were still strong. However, China’s 2020 imports of ultra-high temperature milk, at 845,000 metric tons (MT), climbed 16% above 2019 volumes while whey imports soared 38% to 626,000 MT, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.

Turning to milk production in the major exporting regions of the world, the EU27 and United Kingdom combined produced 0.9% more milk in the January through November period, compared to the comparable months in 2019, according to EuroStat data. “After adjusting for leap year, this group of countries produced 323.5 billion pounds of milk during this period, or 2.8 billion pounds more than the comparable period in 2019,” Berning notes.

From July through December, New Zealand’s 2020-21 milk production topped 6 billion pounds, up 0.7% from the same period in 2019-20. “Pasture conditions in New Zealand have been favorable, and weather concerns from earlier in the season appear to have abated. Soil moisture has also improved, with wetter-than-normal conditions now in the South Island’s key dairy regions of Southland and Canterbury,” Berning says. “Waikato, the major dairy region on the North Island, appears to be drier than normal, but reports from the region suggest pasture conditions there are still favorable.”

In nearby Australia, milk production for the January through November 2020 period increased 3%, adjusted for leap year, compared to the comparable period in 2019. Australia’s year-over-year production increase for the first 11 months of 2020 equates to an additional 511 million pounds of milk, Berning notes.

In the Western Hemisphere, preliminary U.S. milk production data released last week for 2020 indicates very strong adjusted growth of 1.9%, or just over 4 billion pounds of additional milk, compared to 2019. And although South American countries are smaller players in world dairy markets, Argentina increased milk production by 7.2%, or 1.7 billion pounds, in 2020 compared to 2019, and Uruguay added 250 million pounds to world supplies, a 5.2% year-over-year jump.

“All said, world milk supplies in 2020 were significantly stronger than in 2019,” Berning notes. “The EU27, United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, and Uruguay together produced an additional 9.25 billion pounds of milk, after adjusting for leap year. That’s about half as much milk as the United States produces in a month or nearly as much milk as Minnesota produced in all of 2019.”

As Dairies Dump Milk, Frustration Mounts Over Retail Buying Limits

Sat, 30 Jan 2021 16:06:46 GMT

From Georgia to Pennsylvania, videos like this are flooding social media. Dairy producers are facing a devastating scenario and being forced to dump milk down the drain . For some dairy farmers, this marks a first.

“This is the first time in the 32 years I’ve been in business that we’ve had to dump milk in the fields,” says Arnie VanDieden, a dairy producer in Texas.

The Texas producer isn’t alone. Paul Hartman in Reading, Penn. has also been in the business more than 30 years and faced a similar scenario earlier this week.

“Our dairy processor told us on Monday,” says Hartman. “They gave a letter that the driver dropped off that said they were supposed to dump our milk for the next two days; they weren’t going to pick it up. Right away when we heard it, we were shocked. All we hear is the milk is in demand, the stores are having trouble getting it, and then all of a sudden, they’re asking us to dump our milk. So that was kind of confusing.”

The Sudden Loss of Demand

Hartman’s processor told him the reason is a backup in demand. As COVID-19 hit, and industries like restaurants and food services saw an abrupt halt I business, the crisis started to unfold.

“We don’t have an outlet for this milk,” explains Scott Brown, economist with the University of Missouri . “Even if we have plants able to try to process that milk, there’s a little reason to do it at this point due to lack of demand.”

From high-end restaurants to fast food chains, fewer people are eating out and instead, staying at home due to stay-at-home orders. In turn, those consumers are eating fewer pounds of key items like butter and cheese. Therefore, a portion of the nation’s milk supply is without a home.

“The decline in the food service business has not been offset by the increase in the retail side of business,” says Michael Dykes, president and CEO of International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) . “Overnight, we saw a paradigm shift and the business turned upside down.”

The lack of demand from the food service industry is so severe, it’s overshadowing the increase in demand at local grocery stores.

“We don’t have the data yet but will likely post record high and fluid milk consumption in the first quarter of 2020,” says Anna-Lisa Laca, editor of Farm Journal’s MILK. “Unfortunately, that’s not being offset by restaurant demand, and it’s not being offset by our lack of ability to export dairy products in a meaningful way at the moment.”

10% of U.S. Milk Without a Home

IDFA says with fewer restaurants and food services open for normal business, IDFA estimates 10% of the nation’s milk supply is without a home for the foreseeable future.

“That is staggering,” says Dykes. “I think the reason why you’re seeing the reports of dumped milk. This has happened so quickly that the markets can’t adjust.”

Finding a New Home for Lost Demand

Dykes says with the loss of essential demand, IDFA and other dairy groups are lobbying for dairy to be distributed to those who need it most, utilizing current government food programs, especially as unemployment rates grow to levels the U.S. hasn’t seen in nearly 100 years.

“We need to make sure that America’s food banks are replenished,” says Dykes. “When we look at what they’re suggesting, foods banks are buying 10 times as much food as they were on a six-month basis, from $50,000 to $500,000. They’re estimating they need $1.4 billion of food . So, we need to work with the U.S. Department of Agriculture to make sure that food in the food banks is there. Our industry has it, and Americans needed it.”

Dairy Groups Lobby for Programs to Help

While Dykes is in favor of government buying for both domestic and international food aid programs, he doesn’t want to see the government implement a program that artificially boosts prices short-term, acting as a wet blanket on the market later on.

“We don’t want to take actions today that put an overhang in the market,” says Dykes. “We don’t want to suffer the consequences for the next three years, so that we go through another three years like we just went through the last four or five years. Those kinds of programs may sound good on the surface, and we like it when someone’s buying, i.e. the government, but we don’t like it when the government holds on to it for a long time, and then when they start selling, it depresses the market for years.”

Short-Term Pain

While buying for food banks could help dairy find a new home for now, milk futures continue to be in a tailspin. Muted milk prices are putting immense financial pressure on dairy producers.

“We have to take this first 60 to 90 day window, which to me is going to be the toughest and the hardest to survive, and we need to think about the programs that can get money in producers’ pockets or get help and producers pockets as quickly as possible,” says Brown.

The Milk Supply is There

As short-term financial frustrations mount, Hartman and other producers are also frustrated with what they are seeing at some grocery stores. As they are dumping dairy down the drain, some retailers are limiting the amount of milk a shopper can buy during a time when the supply is there, and dairy leaders say logistics are working.

“If they’re being asked grocery store to only take one gallon of milk, I would get after the grocery store and say, ‘why am I allowed to get one gallon when dairy farmers are dumping milk,’” says Hartman. “Let’s take off those restrictions and let people buy as much milk as they can.”

Dykes agrees with urging retailers to remove restrictions on dairy. He says the supply is there and limits on buying aren’t necessary.

“Our members are getting the milk to the grocers,” says Dykes. “The milk is there. We need to remove those signs at any grocery store. There should be no limits on how much milk or any dairy product any consumer can purchase. It is available. Our members are getting it there, and our members are processing the milk.”

Dykes says the supply is there, as processors and food companies are going the extra mile to ensure dairy isn’t missing from refrigerators at any retail location. With COVID-19, he says that is no easy task.

“Our members are going above and beyond to make the make the product available,” says Dykes. “For example, if they weren’t doing three shifts a day, many of them have gone to three shifts, they’ve extended the hours and they are they’re maximizing the output through the plants, all the while preserving food safety. Our members are going above and beyond to make sure that the supply chain is has the product in it for the consumers.”

Mike North of Vault Ag thinks the panic buying has started to soften and agrees the limits on dairy should also disappear.

“I think the first couple days milk was like toilet paper, it went off the shelf and nobody could find anything anywhere,” says North. “Now that we have caught up to that, that is no longer the case and that sign can go away and should go away. Let’s face it; if somebody wants to walk in and buy three or four gallons of milk, let them do it, because on the other side of this, we are dumping milk and the reality is our processors are running around the clock right now doing everything they can to keep up with the demand where there is demand. And it’s for the retail space, and that is in the form of a gallon of milk. Take that sign down because the producer the producers are ready to put that on the shelf.”

Waning Outlooks

As those in the dairy industry lobby for more demand or financial help in other ways, outlooks from farmers are waning.

“At first, it looked like 2020 was going to be a pretty good year, and man did that turn on a dime,” says Hartman.

VanDieden says their family is cutting back on inputs, to try to feed their cows a little cheaper during this tough time. He and other producers are in survival mode, hoping better days for dairying are ahead.

“Since we are shortcutting supply, I believe on the backside of this it does start to open some doors for us to see some better prices,” says North. “Maybe 2020 finishes a lot better than it looks today; cross your fingers”

Clinical Refresher: The Five Routes of Disease Transmission

Sat, 30 Jan 2021 16:06:33 GMT

The situation surrounding COVID-19 changes on a daily, and even hourly, basis is the U.S. While there’s currently no evidence that this particular strain of coronavirus will affect cattle, biological risk management is still important for the people working on farms and ranches and for preventing the spread of illness between them. Best practices include frequent hand washing, avoiding close contact between people and staying home if you feel sick, the CDC says .

“It is important to clarify that COVID-19 and the bovine coronavirus are very different viruses,” says Dr. A.J. Tarpoff, assistant professor and extension specialist at Kansas State University. “The corona virus family is a huge family of viruses. Each of the viruses typically only affect individual species. So it would not be expected at all for the COVID-19 to circulate or have any health effect on our cattle herds.”

There are five main routes of disease transmission: aerosol, direct contact, fomite, oral and vector. Diseases can be spread to humans (zoonotic) by those same five routes. By implementing prevention practices for each route of disease transmission, veterinarians and producers can reduce their risk of common, everyday diseases entering their clinics and farms, as well as foreign animal or emerging diseases. Another advantage of this approach is that control measures for one route of transmission can minimize the risk and impact of a number of diseases.

Route Definitions:

Aerosol: Pathogenic agents contained in aerosol droplets are passed from one animal to another, or between animals and humans. Most pathogenic agents do not survive for extended periods of time within the aerosol droplets and close proximity of infected and susceptible animals is required for transmission

Direct contact: A susceptible animal becomes exposed through physical contact when the agent from an infected animal or the environment enters open wounds, mucous membranes, or the skin through blood, saliva, nose-to-nose, rubbing, or biting another animal. Some disease agents can spread between animals of different species, as well as to humans.

Subtype: Reproductive Diseases spread through venereal contact (from animal-to-animal through coitus) and in-utero (from dam to offspring during gestation).

Oral: Consumption of pathogenic agents in contaminated feed, water or licking/chewing on contaminated environmental objects. Feed and water contaminated with feces or urine are frequently the cause of oral transmission of disease agents. Contaminated environmental objects could include equipment, feed bunks, water troughs, fencing, salt and mineral blocks, and other items an animal may lick or chew.

Fomite: A contaminated inanimate object transmits a disease agent from one susceptible animal to another. It involves a secondary route of transmission (direct contact or oral) for the pathogen to enter the host. Examples include contaminated shovels, clothing, bowls/buckets, brushes, tack, and clippers.

Subtype: Traffic Vehicle, trailer, or human causes the spread of a pathogenic agent through contaminated tires, wheel wells, undercarriage, clothing, or shoes/boots by spreading organic material to another location.

Vector-borne: An insect acquires a pathogen from one animal and transmits it to another either mechanically or biologically. Mechanical transmission: disease agent does not replicate or develop in/on the vector; it is simply transported by the vector from one animal to another (e.g., flies). Biological transmission: vector takes up the agent, usually through a blood meal from an infected animal, replicates and/or develops it, and then regurgitates the pathogen onto or injects it into a susceptible animal. Fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes are common biological vectors of disease.

Zoonotic: Diseases transmitted between animals and humans. Human exposure occurs through one of the previously listed five main routes of transmission (aerosol, direct contact, fomite, oral, and vector-borne). It is a separate route of transmission due to its importance.

For more information on the novel coronavirus, visit the resource center on AgWeb . For more about the virus and livstock, Dr. Tarpoff recommends this article by South Dakota State University extension specialist Dr. Russ Daly.

What Should You Do if Your Farm Employees Test Positive for COVID-19?

Mon, 14 Dec 2020 16:56:31 GMT

Once your employee is home and in self-isolation, the National Pork Board recommends these steps to prevent further transmission in the workplace.

1. Wait approximately 24 hours before cleaning and disinfecting.

Begin cleaning and disinfecting all areas used by the sick person, as well as common areas and high hand contact areas regularly. A simple bleach solution or other disinfectants may be used according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

2. Pay special note when cleaning your operation to these areas:

Bathrooms
Breakrooms
Shared workspaces and equipment
Door handles, light switches, refrigerators, microwaves/ovens, coffeemakers, etc.

3. Launder the positive employees’ clothing separate from other employees and consider leaving clothing for a least a day before having others use them.

4. Implement additional practices to further prevent transmission such as social distancing and use of face coverings when social distancing is not possible.

For more information and resources, visit cdc.gov .

Veterinarian Gives Back To His Community

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:55:52 GMT

If you met Loren Schultz working cattle in his cowboy hat, boots and veterinary scrubs you might not think he’s a ballet kind of guy. But you’d be wrong. In fact, Schultz entered the Dancing with Missouri Stars contest two years ago to raise funds for the Missouri Contemporary Ballet in Columbia, Mo., the only professional dance company in the area.

“I got involved because they do a lot of community outreach; I was really drawn in by that,” says Schultz, DVM and associate teaching veterinarian at the University of Missouri-Columbia. “They do things with the Boys and Girls Club and provide dance lessons to underprivileged kids. They also have a disability program, so kids with special needs are able to get involved with dance and become active through those types of things.”

Schultz and his wife, Kelly, have been foster parents to 17 children over the years and adopted three daughters. His dance partner for the competition, Nicole Bell, is one of his eldest daughter’s instructors at the dance company.

How did the pair do in the dance competition?

“We came in second, but we got a standing ovation,” Schultz says. “They’ve been doing this for 12 years, and the director said this was only the second time somebody got a standing ovation. I was pretty happy with that.”

Fast forward two years, and despite the challenges from COVID-19, you’ll find Schultz still working with cattle, raising kids and helping folks in the Columbia community.

“There’s a lot of people who have lost their jobs and have a hard time feeding their kids. My wife and I have been delivering groceries to people,” he says. “Veterinarians are essential workers, so we’re still making calls. It’s important in times like these to give back to people however you can.”

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Largest U.S. Junior Dairy Show, the Wisconsin State Fair, Cancelled

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:06:47 GMT

The Wisconsin State Fair announced Thursday that for the first time in 75 years they’d be cancelling the 2020 state fair. While organizers say the decision was not made lightly, they were concerned about operating a massive event safely and economically during the coronavirus pandemic. Scheduled for Aug. 6-16, more than 1 million people attend the fair each year.

“On behalf of the entire State Fair Park Board of Directors, please know that the decision to cancel the 2020 Wisconsin State Fair was not taken lightly,” said Wisconsin State Fair Park Board Chairman John Yingling. “Months of deliberation took place, considering all options to host a Fair that adheres to the highest standard of safety without compromising the experience. We explored countless models, but ultimately safety cannot be compromised. The risks associated with hosting an event of this size and scope right now are just too great.”

State Fair has been canceled only five years — three of them during the Civil War — with the last cancellation in 1945 as troops were fighting in the Pacific. The event started in 1851 in Janesville when it drew 10,000 people to see the latest agriculture machinery and products. It has been held in West Allis since 1892.

Additionally, the Wisconsin State Fair is home to the largest junior dairy show in the U.S.

This hurts the most, thank you Wisconsin State Fair for 7 years of awards, memories, laughs, and so many amazing friends. Not being in the ring this year is heartbreaking. https://t.co/YRGzLiGBZe
— court (@17cuhlenhake) May 28, 2020

This is absolutely ridiculous. Many county fairs in Wisconsin are also cancelled. I have great sympathy for young people on farms who look forward to having their animals judged at county fairs or the state fair and now that won’t happen.
— Paul Bonneson, J. D. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇱 (@pbonn1989) May 28, 2020

My heart goes out to all of the youth exhibitors getting their last year of showing taken away.
— caitlyn (@caitlynjacobsen) May 28, 2020

Wisconsin was not the first state fair to cancel. Check out this map of other cancellations.

State Fair Cancellations Shatter Dreams Across the Country

Youth Exhibitors #FarmON in the Cyber Show Ring

Research Team Asks Dairy Industry For Help With Coronavirus Survey

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:06:43 GMT

What will be the ultimate impact on U.S. dairy farms from the coronavirus, and what can the industry do to address the results?

Answers to those questions are what a team of researchers from University of California-Davis, Washington State University (WSU), University of Idaho and South Dakota State University is hoping to determine, according to John R. Wenz, DVM, MS, Field Disease Investigation Unit, WSU.

The team has developed a set of surveys it would like dairy industry members to complete this week.

The results will be used in a grant proposal the team is submitting to the USDA’s “Rapid Response to Novel Coronavirus” program to obtain funds that will benefit the dairy industry.

“Even if the grant isn’t funded the results will allow us to identify critical areas for outreach activities with the objective of mitigating potential risks to dairy farmers’ and workers’ health, further labor disruptions, milk supply shortages, and economic risks to the sector,” Wenz wrote in an email to Bovine Veterinarian on Wednesday.

“Whether or not one believes the novel coronavirus presents a significant health risk, it definitely presents a risk to the businesses in the dairy industry,” he adds.

The team has developed three surveys and asks that you complete the one reflective of your specific role in the dairy industry. The survey takes about 10 minutes to complete, and all responses are anonymous.

Allied Industry Professionals (Veterinarians, Nutritionists, Consultants, Sales Reps): https://wsu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3Jn5tx9KnPNE2nr

Dairy Producers/Managers: https://wsu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_d7gA0pfFiIjeRs9

Dairy Farm Workers (English and Spanish): https://ucdavis.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_czN1s3rjp9FaAHb

An overview of the research team members and their grant program objectives are available at the start of each survey.

For more information, you can also contact Dr. Wenz at jrwenz@wsu.edu

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How and Why to Laugh, Even When it’s Hard

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:06:27 GMT

Healthy habits always take work, but here’s one that will be fun to build.

Researchers suggest the average American should laugh 15 times or more a day for health maintenance, according to the University of Missouri Extension .

If you don’t take time out for pleasure and always look at things in a serious or negative way, you are more likely to have health problems in the future. In addition, if you skimp on laughter, you may actually be less productive and effective than you would be if you took a break for a little humor during the daily grind.

Why does laughter bring benefits to your everyday life? The University of Missouri Extension shares these four points:

Laughter can actually make you feel better. Laughter is a tool to lighten up your mood. It also gives you opportunities to reduce conflicts and increase social interaction. Good laughter is like a social lubricant to help break the ice and ease social tension, which makes you feel better and confident even when communicating sensitive or serious information.

Laughter reduces stress. Some physicians report laughter can result in muscle relaxation, which helps reduce stress and headaches. Laughter also can help you release pent-up feelings of fear, anger and anxiety. Put another way, laughter is an emotional weight-loss technique—it helps you feel lighter and healthier.

Laughter is good exercise. Laughter has been called internal jogging. When you laugh, your muscles are activated, oxygen floods the blood and the cardiovascular system dilates. Laughter can also stimulate the production of endorphins in the brain, the body’s natural pain-reducing enzymes. When endorphins increase, feelings of pain decrease. Laughter can extend to every internal organ, giving them a healthy massage.

Laughter builds stronger teams. Good laughter can help pull a group together and build a bond among group members. Laughter and humor can increase group cohesion, which also can enhance group problem-solving skills.

With long days due to spring planting, weather delays and the constant feed of COVID-19 news, you’re probably running a little short on your laugh quota. How do you provide yourself with a steady supply of laughter? Start with being positive. Practice seeing the glass half full instead of half empty.

Give yourself some rewards and time out for joy. If you are a serious person and seldom laugh, set a goal of 15 laughs a day until it starts to become a habit. Begin to look for humor and laughter in everyday situations.

Remember these wise words from Mark Twain: “The human race has one really effective weapon, and that is laughter.”

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Coronavirus: Cope with the Crisis

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:06:27 GMT

Six months ago, COVID-19 wasn’t even on farmers’ radar.Today, the virus has left a wide swath of destruction in its path. From coast to coast farmers are putting milk down the drain. Cooperatives and processors have implemented base programs to curb supply. For some dairy farmers, this marks a first.

“This is the first time in the 32 years I’ve been in business we’ve had to dump milk in the fields,” says Arnie VanDieden, a dairy producer in Texas.

Fellow producer Paul Hartman, from Reading, Pa., faced a similar scenario in March for the first time in his more than 30-year career.

“Our dairy processor gave a letter that the driver dropped off. It said we were supposed to dump our milk for the next two days; they weren’t going to pick it up,” Hartman says. “We were shocked. All we hear is milk is in demand, stores are having trouble getting it. Then all of a sudden, they’re asking us to dump our milk. It was confusing.”

THE SUDDEN LOSS OF DEMAND

Hartman’s processor told him demand was backed up. As COVID-19 hit, schools closed and industries such as restaurants and foodservice saw an abrupt halt in business, the dairy crisis started to unfold.

“We don’t have an outlet for this milk,” explains Scott Brown, economist with the University of Missouri. “Even if we have plants able to process that milk, there’s little reason to do it at this point due to lack of demand.

”Inventories already weighed on butter values in February and early March, but price declines accelerated in late March. Over the past several weeks, CME spot butter prices have sunk more than 50¢ to 10-year lows.

“The dairy supply chain is in shambles,” says Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report. While some processors are running at full capacity, others are operating below capacity or have closed due to a lack of orders or an absent workforce.

“Hundreds of loads of milk will end up down the drain or into manure lagoons,” Sharp says. “In the past, when oversupply forced the industry to dump milk, processors would often discard the skim and salvage the cream. But today, even cream cannot find a home.

”As many bottlers continue to keep the nation’s grocery store shelves stocked, more surplus cream has become available. At the same time, the shuttering of restaurants and schools across the country has nearly halted the flow of butter, cream, sour cream, processed cheese, ice cream and other high-fat products through foodservice channels, Sharp adds.

From high-end restaurants to fast food chains, fewer people are eating out. In turn, those consumers are eating fewer pounds of key items such as butter and cheese. Therefore, a portion of the nation’s milk supply is without a home.

Industry sources estimate with the foodservice industry basically shutdown, there’s roughly 10% more milk than processing capacity right now. For weeks, many dairy cooperatives have asked producers to cut production or have penalized them for overproduction.

“The decline in the foodservice business has not been offset by the increase in the retail side of business,” says Michael Dykes, president and CEO of International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). “Overnight, we saw a paradigm shift and the business turned upside down.”

MILK MARKET NOSEDIVE

“Among the major agricultural commodities, only lean hogs have suffered a steeper decline than Class IV [milk] futures,” Sharp says. “Rising inventories and slowing exports have drug down milk powder prices over the past two months.”

In late April, May Class III was trading around $11.28 per cwt while Class IV was sitting at $10.25. Have milk prices hit bottom?

“We are close to it, unless you think the cheese market can drop below $1 per pound,” says University of Wisconsin economist Bob Cropp. “That is possible, but hopefully we’re at the bottom.

”What happens next will depend on milk production moving forward, how quickly consumption in restaurants and foodservice rebounds, and exports.

USDA is projecting a Class III average of just $12.15 for the year. But current April futures prices would average out to more than that, Cropp says.“We will get some strength in prices in the second half, but how much — I don’t know,” he says.

Dairy Crisis Proposal Includes Voluntary Supply Management Program

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:06:06 GMT

Late Monday night, the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) submitted to USDA a joint plan to confront the COVID-19 dairy crisis.

“While no plan can wholly remedy the losses that are occurring, dairy is responding with a united plan that can help mitigate the damage caused to it by the COVID-19 pandemic. After extensive discussions across the industry, we have developed this comprehensive action plan to address many of the key marketplace challenges created by the pandemic and are presenting it to USDA,” says NMPF CEO Jim Mulhern.

The proposal is broken into three categories: producer initiatives, processor initiatives and consumer initiatives.

Producer Initiatives. The groups are proposing all producers cut their production 10% from a March 2020 baseline. This voluntary reduction program would then pay $3 per cwt on the remaining 90% through September should the average Class III/IV price stay below $16.

The second producer initiative would ensure producers are paid for milk dumped due to COVID-19. This program would run through June which is when most analysts expect dumping to end.

They are also calling for Dairy Margin Coverage program enrollment to reopen with a retroactive sign up at no premium discount.

Processor Initiatives. The groups would like to see a loan program to provide processors with access to more working capitol. The program would only cover FMMO component costs and would not cover packaging etc. They would also like to see a forgivable loan program for processors similar to the SBA loan program.

Consumer Initiatives. The proposal includes large purchases of dairy products by USDA to be distributed directly to food banks. It also calls for limitations on programs like WIC to be lifted which would allow those consumers to purchase a wider variety of dairy products. The groups would also like to see USDA improve existing nutritional programs including the Supplemental Nutrition Program to address food security and boost retail dairy sales.

“Our main problem is clear: We estimate that supply exceeds demand by at least 10% – a gap that could widen as supply increases to its seasonal peak and as “shelter in place” conditions endure,” says Michael Dykes CEO of IDFA. “The Milk Crisis Plan for USDA presents our objectives to support U.S. dairy through this crisis, beginning with an urgent plea: Use as many tools as possible – as quickly as possible – to bridge the supply/demand gap without any longer term market repercussions.”

COVID-19 Recession Likely to Cause Milk Prices to Reflect 2008

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:05:54 GMT

Farmers and analysts alike expected milk prices to suffer at the hands of COVID-19. However, what started as a price impact estimate of 6% has quickly become a much darker outlook. Markets move lower nearly every day as the impact of the virus continues to be felt across the economy and supply chain. Grocery stores struggle to keep milk on the shelf. People are eating more at home than in restaurants. Logistics companies face special challenges. A shortage of containers is likely to harm exports. And entire states are out of school for several weeks which will no doubt impact school milk consumption. All in all, analysts agree milk prices could fall a staggering 20%, which would put us in the neighborhood of 2008 prices.

“It’s kind of surreal. It’s weird watching these markets implode on such limited data,” says Tom Bailey a senior dairy economist with RaboAgriFinance. “We are shifting our projections to what can effectively be described as a recession.”

While domestically, anecdotal evidence points to a short-term boom in retail sales, it’s not likely to be enough to offset other challenges. Bailey says he’s hearing some retailers report 50-100% growth in the last week, some of that growth including classic cheese and milk.

“We don’t have the exact data yet so it’s still mostly anecdotal and hearsay at this stage,” he says.

That kind of growth is big, but is it big enough to offset other factors like restaurant service?

“Open table, for example, they’re showing reservations down 20 to 50%. So, that’s one external data point we can look at,” he says. “And now they’re obviously closing bars and restaurants and limiting sales to takeout at this stage.”

According to Black Box Intelligence, restaurant sales in Seattle were down about 20% during the first full week of heightened awareness of the spreading virus. High-end and full-service restaurants appear to be getting hit harder than quick serve and to-go service, says Nate Donnay senior dairy analyst at INTL FCStone, to-go sales there were up 10.5%.

“It’s likely that we’ll see drive through, to-go, and food delivery sales get a positive bump from the covid-19 concerns while in-restaurant/sit-down sales take a big hit,” he says. “It all probably nets out to a net negative for food service sales, but the hit will not be evenly distributed across restaurant types and food categories. Delivered pizza seems very well positioned and that could help to dampen the impact on the cheese market.”

Donnay says a 20% decline in restaurant sales across the country for 3 months would likely equate to total milk equivalent disappearance being down 1-2% for the year.

“That would likely reduce dairy prices by about 15% from what they otherwise would have been,” he says adding that with all the state shutdowns and restaurant closings, assuming a 20% drop in prices “might not be enough.”

Restaurant demand isn’t the only factor at play. Additionally, school milk consumption will fall dramatically with the wide swaths of school closures leaving many kids without milk. School milk consumption accounts for roughly 7% of national consumption. However, some bigger school districts like New York is looking to provide kids with food who won’t have it otherwise.

“And oftentimes those programs will be open at any students so you can see a lot of people still using those channels, but I suspect people to stay home who can,” he adds.

Limited export containers, oil prices and other macroeconomic factors could mean trouble for export markets, Bailey says.

“Middle East and North Africa are certainly going to be lower, but that doesn’t do it to us directly. It’s going to impact Oceania, and European exporters, who will then have products into Southeast Asia where we said profit analysis especially Asian image can be weak because of economic troubles in China. If their demand is weak, exports will be weak.”

“Over the next month or two dairy prices should hold up,” but Bailey says farmers should expect “significant price pressure” to follow as the dust settles and a recession settles in over the next year.

“Over the next two to three months with oil prices being where they are, and other macroeconomic factors being considered, potential loss of employment affordability of importers with weaker currencies and so on the impact to dairy prices are inevitable.”

Bailey says they’re expecting prices to be down 15 to 25%. “So, I’d say downside risk of 25%, this puts us in 2008 territory, roughly, for dairy prices.”

Is there a bright side?

It’s early to say, but Bailey says there’s still a chance we get through this quickly with a market recovery before the end of the year. Think more in terms of a deep V pricing and market curve rather than a prolonged deep recession.

“It will depend on how the curve of this virus goes, before people start traveling eating out again but there’s gonna be a lot of skepticism,” he admits. “But when things start turning around, there’s a good chance that the protective systems for the economy and government support, will help us recover faster.”

At this point in time, Rabobank analysts expect prices to remain buoyed over the short term before the impacts of a recession are felt in the second half of 2020.

“It could be a steeper, sharper dive and a quicker recovery, like a V,” he says. “That’s what we’re all hoping for, but it all depends on how the next month plays out and how this virus spreads.”

Coronavirus Changes Milk Market Outlook

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:05:50 GMT

By ROBIN SCHMAHL

The month of February was not kind to milk futures as prices fell substantially. Product prices were under pressure on the daily spot market, but the greatest influence stemmed from other commodity markets as well as the DOW and other Indices. The spread of the Covid-19 virus is having a large impact on prices. Even though dairy may not be directly related, there is concern over the slowing of export demand, not because of lower consumer demand, but slower exports as shipments need to go through more protocols in order to get to the desired locations. This will back up supply into the pipeline and result in lower prices. There have been some reports of food shortages of certain items in some countries due to the inability of products to reach those locations on time.

There is concern developing over the impact this could have on the agricultural workforce if this become more widespread in the U.S. Dairy operations could face a significant risk to their workforce if the virus spreads to the areas where farms are located. This is not likely, but it is something dairy operations need to think about and add to their crisis management plan.

The markets have never gone through something of this potential magnitude and it is difficult to determine just how much impact it could have. Demand should remain the same or even improve, but the supply chain will likely be disrupted for an undetermined period of time. This is taking place at the same time milk production is increasing as spring flush begins.

Milk production per cow continues to improve as dairy farmers strive to get as much milk as possible out of the cows in order to cash flow. Class III milk prices have been better than the previous year since February 2019 with Class IV price better than the previous year since October 2018. This has spurred the desire to push more production and increase cow numbers in some states. There has been a desire by some farms to purchase another farms plant quota or to fill plant space after a farm exits the dairy business. The impact of the coronavirus will make this year very difficult to predict.

Dairy exports have started the year very strong with the total volume of dairy exports in January running 21% higher than January 2019. The total value of those exports showed an increase of 29% to a total of $554.80 million and was the highest amount in 5 years. Most categories showed improvement. Ingredient sales were very strong to Southeast Asia. This resulted in the fifth consecutive month of export volume growth. Bear in mind that these were figures for January before export concern escalated. Continued growth will be key to dairy prices as the year progresses.

Another key area will be the growth of inventory especially in the American cheese category. Last year, American cheese stocks began the year at the highest level and then either remained somewhat sideways or slowly decreased throughout the rest of the year. The result was substantially higher Class III milk prices. I inventory can follow a similar pattern this year, we may see strong milk prices as the year progresses. However, slowing demand resulting in growth of inventory may be detrimental to higher milk prices later in the year. Class IV prices may remain under substantial pressure due to strong growth of butter inventory.

The potential for higher milk prices this year that had been earlier predicted, has now been reduced. The current market situation does not point to a better year. However, much can change over the course of the year.

Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker and owner of AgDairy LLC, a full-service commodity brokerage firm located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. He can be reached at 877-256-3253 or through their website at www.agdairy.com .

Coronavirus Could Drop Milk Prices 6%

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:05:46 GMT

Over the past few days commodity markets, including dairy, have felt the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. This week, second half 2020 milk prices have fallen 2 to 12 cents and cheese prices continue a downward fall. What’s causing the decline? Secretary Tom Vilsack, CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture noted two main reasons prices are suffering: A backlog in Chinese ports and reduced demand.

1. Supply jam. Dairy products shipped to China are being delayed because of the situation at the ports.

“When China essentially took many of the workers in the ports and told them to stay home, it obviously caused a backup of container ships,” Vilsack told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “We’re working our way through that process and so we’re probably going to see a continuation for several weeks of months of continued congestion at those Chinese ports, at least at the coastal ports.”

The port congestion will also increase transportation costs, he added.

2. Demand for food is being impacted. Not only are restaurants and grocery stores seeing less traffic as consumers rely on home delivery for their groceries, but tourism is down in Asia, Vilsack said.

“Very large trade, trade conferences are being are being canceled,” he said. “So, all the travel plans, all the tourism activities associated with that [are also impacted.]”

Additionally, in places were school is being canceled, demand for school lunch milk is declining. Some of that milk is becoming an ingredient in butter and cheese domestically produced which will have an effect on demand for dairy from other countries.

“There’s no question this is going to have an impact on the global economy,” he says. “And that, of course, also impacts purchasing decisions that people make.”

How far will milk prices fall?

“I still think on a global basis coronavirus knocks something like 6%, maybe 7% off the dairy prices over the next 12 months,” says Nate Donnay, director of dairy intelligence at INTL FCStone. “That’s being partially offset by the poor weather in New Zealand. Although production of the U.S. and Europe seems to be running a bit strong short-term here.”

Even with that decline, Donnay’s projections are only down 4% from what he forecasted at the start of January because supply side issues will “somewhat offset” demand issues, he adds.

“But as the coronavirus is getting a bigger and bigger foothold in Europe and in the U.S., it does maybe more than a little bit, open us up to more downside risks with some direct impacts on the European and U.S. dairy markets,” he says.

“Virtual Scouting Around the World 2020”

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:07 GMT

I am honored to be able to participate in the creation of these new Social Distancing and Virtual Scouting Around the World patches!

https://www.firstgiving.com/event/swc/rubespatch

SUPPORT VIRTUAL SCOUTING WHILE STAYING AT HOME

Be among the first to own an original “Virtual Scouting Around the World 2020” patch custom designed by internationally syndicated cartoonist Leigh Rubin (Rubes®). The patch represents how Scouting connects youth and communities worldwide even more now in a virtual setting.

Every patch you purchase supports enhanced virtual programming and safe social meeting spaces that enable kids to continue to stay connected with their friends, learn new skills, and support their community.

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Our Food Supply is Strong

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:02 GMT

By Joanna Lidback: Barton, Vermont

My cows don’t know about coronavirus.

They’re still giving milk on the schedule that they always follow. They love their routines and want to stick to them. They have no idea about our human worries, displaying what can only be described as “bovine indifference.”

The milk truck also continues to come to our farm every other day, collecting fresh supplies. The labs that check the quality of our milk remain up and running.

On our dairy farm in rural Vermont, it’s pretty much business as usual—at least in terms of our farming operation.

In just about every other way, of course, it feels like the world has turned upside down.

As a farmer, I think about food all the time—and lots of Americans along with citizens around the world - are worried about whether there’s enough food to go around.

We’ve all seen the photos on social media and television. They show empty shelves and long lines. Even if you haven’t glimpsed these things with your own eyes, you possibly visited an unnervingly crowded grocery store or food mart.

Maybe you went looking for hand sanitizer or toilet paper and couldn’t find any. Perhaps you noticed that the boxes of pasta and cans of soup were running low and bought more than you thought you really needed, just in case.

There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s even rational. We all want to be prepared for the unexpected.

The good news is that our food supply is strong. Coronavirus has caused a surge in demand. In a few places, this has created short-term challenges.

They won’t last. A headline in the New York Times may have said it best: “There Is Plenty of Food in the Country.”

I’ll put it more bluntly: We’re going to have the food we need. In fact, we’re going to eat well. In all of history, our ability to move food from farm to fork never has been better.

The entire food industry—starting with the farmers who are on the front lines of food production—will make sure we have nutritious and affordable food.

If you can’t find milk today, check again tomorrow. There’s no shortage.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m worried about coronavirus, too. The economy is in danger. The stock market is on a rollercoaster. The health systems around the world are facing an unprecedented test.

Schools are shutting down everywhere. We don’t know for sure when they’ll reopen and we have to figure out what to do with our kids. On the farm, we’ll have to come up with new chores to keep them busy.

We also want to keep them—and everybody—in good health. We’re washing our hands like crazy. We’re practicing “social distancing.” A few weeks ago, I hadn’t even heard that term. Now it’s becoming a way of life.

Some of our business is bound to change as well. Our co-op’s annual meeting, which was to take place next month, is cancelled. We won’t have as many face-to-face meetings as we like to have.

There are bound to be other effects as well. On Twitter , Marin Bozic of the University of Minnesota laid out a few scenarios for the dairy industry: If we enter a global recession, which seems likely, demand for milk will drop. We’ll export less. That will lower prices for U.S. consumers. On the other hand, if plant workers start to call in sick, processing will slow down. That would boost prices. Exactly how this shakes out is anyone’s guess.

One thing that almost certainly won’t change, however, is the supply. “Milk production interruptions: I do not expect much effect here,” concluded Bozic.

The fundamentals of our farming won’t change. We’ll keep on milking the cows and loading the trucks, doing our part to feed the food chain.

We’re going to get through this, one day at a time.

My cows won’t let us down.

Joanna Lidback and her husband operate the Farm at Wheeler Mountain, a diversified dairy farm in Vermont. Joanna volunteers as a board member for the Global Farmer Network. this column originates at www.globalfarmernetwork.org

A version of Joanna’s comments was published in The Hill on March 20, 2020.