Cow-Calf News

Heavy Steers and Lean Cows: Drivers of the 2026 Ground Beef Market

Tue, 12 May 2026 15:48:31 GMT

In a market defined by record-breaking prices, an unlikely partnership is driving the value of ground beef: 980-lb. carcasses and the lean cull cows needed to balance them out. While fed cattle weights have reached historic highs, they’ve created a massive surplus of fat trim that requires an equally historic amount of lean blending beef to meet consumer demand. This blending math — combined with tight supplies and a shift in culling patterns — is pushing cull cow prices to new heights.

David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, in a recent Southern Ag Today article , summarizes that cull cow prices keep climbing.

“While calf and fed cattle prices have continued to set new record highs in the cash and futures market, cull cow prices have continued their slow ascent to new highs as lean beef prices keep pulling cow prices higher,” Anderson explains. “Southern Plains cull cow auction prices increased to almost $180 per cwt in late April, up about $15 per cwt since January. The seasonal price increase has been smaller than normal this year. Cutter-quality cows have increased about $30 per cwt., almost 25%, since the beginning of the year.”

(USDA-AMS, Livestock Marketing Information Center)

The Blending Effect: Why 980-lb. Carcasses Need Lean Cows

Blending math is the process of mixing high-fat trim from fed cattle with 90% lean beef from cull cows to meet consumer demand for specific ground beef ratios. Anderson stresses one overlooked boost to lean beef prices has been record-large fed cattle dressed weights. Average federally inspected fed steer dressed weights have remained more than 980 lb. per carcass since late 2025.

“Larger carcasses produce additional fat that requires more lean beef for blending to boost its value as ground beef rather than just tallow entering the fats and oils market,” he says.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University professor of agricultural economics, says when the beef industry harvests animals bigger than ever, it is also getting more 50% lean and 50% fat trimmings per animal than ever before. He points out most consumers don’t directly consume 50/50, thus it is an input into ground beef production, and it only works if there is more lean to blend with it.

If there is not enough U.S.-produced lean to blend, the next option is to import lean.

Dairy Culling Shifts and the April Pullback

After exceeding slaughter of a year ago through the first 10 weeks of 2026, dairy cow culling pulled back to year-ago levels during April.

“Dairy cow culling typically peaks in January and February each year, then declines into midyear,” Anderson says. “The decline in dairy cow slaughter has pulled down total cow culling as weekly beef cow slaughter has held at steady but low levels. For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is reported up 6% compared to last year while total cow slaughter (beef and dairy) is down 5%.”

(USDA-AMS and USDA-NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center)

Beef and dairy cow slaughter is reported weekly by region of the U.S. In recent weeks, Anderson says reported regional cow slaughter data has declined due to confidentiality rules that prevent publication if there are too few buyers to prevent revealing any one operation’s actions.

(USDA-AMS and USDA-NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center)

“The lack of reporting due to confidentiality concerns has been a problem in fed cattle reporting for many years,” Anderson says. “On the positive side, the weekly national cow slaughter data includes all of the regions, including those that could not be reported regionally.”

2026 projected cow culling is based on year-to-date beef cow slaughter.

(Oklahoma State University)

Retention vs. Liquidation: The Impact of Record Calf Values

Anderson says record-high calf prices are likely keeping cows on the ranch or dairy that otherwise would have been culled to get one more calf out of them. As those calves are born and move to weaning, there may be an increase in culling as those cows come to market.

“Cull prices tend to peak midyear, so there is room for cow prices to continue to increase over the next couple of months,” Anderson says. “Beyond just the seasonal pattern arguing for higher prices, cow culling should continue to be lower than last year, further supporting prices. Beef cow slaughter is expected to remain well below a year ago. Better milk prices should restrain dairy cow culling even though the herd remains large.”

Analyst Predicts Cull Cow Prices Will Remain Elevated

Adding to the discussion on cull cow marketing strategies, Don Close, Terrain chief beef analyst, explains, “Growing up in sale barns we always used to say the best day of the year to sell a used cow is the first day of baseball season. There is some grounding in that date. As soon as grass greens, after a producer has kept her and fed hay all winter, he isn’t going to sell her if he has grass, especially if he thinks she is bred. Once she has calved and grass is available, the producer isn’t inclined to do much unless it is a drought or injury issue. At this point they will wait until fall weaning and cow-sorting time.”

He also points out another driving factor for cull cow prices is the strength of ground beef prices supported with the beginning of the grilling season — prepared-meat manufacturers’ demand is at its peak. Hot dog and lunch meat sales go up as children are out of school and with ballpark hot dog consumption.

(USDA-AMS, Livestock Marketing Information Center)

Your Next Reads:

How Will U.S. Producers Maintain Business when New World Screwworm Invades?

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:59:35 GMT

With animal disease, prevention and preparation beat panic. Since New World screwworm (NWS) was last eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s, the tools and infrastructure to deal with foreign animal disease have dramatically changed.

Dr. Justin Smith, Kansas animal health commissioner and state veterinarian, during the recent Kansas State University Cattlemen’s Day gave an update on how Kansas and other states are preparing for NWS. The approach is designed to keep producers in business, keep cattle and products moving, and manage NWS in a way that protects both herds and markets.

He says the U.S. animal health officials along with USDA are planning a multistate, coordinated response that aims for consistency across state borders.

Smith summarizes the industry’s preparation to tackle NWS is like a three-legged stool. U.S. producers will be able to maintain business when NWS invades through surveillance, treatment and movement controls.

Surveillance: Eyes on Animals

The first leg of the stool is surveillance. He stresses early detection depends heavily on producers and veterinarians watching animals closely and reporting anything suspicious.

Smith emphasizes they would rather over investigate than miss a case.

“We want to make sure that we err on the side of having to say no on many occasions, versus saying, ‘Yep, this is what we got.’ Eyes on animals is going to be key.”

He was clear this should feel like partnership, not policing.

“They don’t want it to look like Big Brother coming over your shoulder,” he explains. “I hope we want to get this thing quickly.”

Smith explains that once a positive premises is identified, surveillance becomes structured around zones. The infested premises sit at the center, surrounded by an infested zone, an adjacent surveillance zone and a broader fly surveillance area.

The infested zone is 12.4 miles in radius from the infested premises. In this zone, there will be frequent on‑animal checks for wounds and larvae, plus enhanced monitoring in surrounding zones using fly traps and animal observation. The adjacent surveillance zone is another 12.4 miles radius and then there will be a fly surveillance area — an 124-mile radius from the infested premises.

Smith says movements out of the infested zone will require visual inspection for wounds and systemic treatment, including a treatment window of three to 14 days before movement plus a documented certificate of veterinary inspection.

He says the current Kansas response plan aligns with USDA’s playbook and neighboring states’ plans while taking into account specific needs of the Kansas livestock industry.

He stresses the playbook will continue to evolve, and state-by-state implementation may vary, but he says the “zone approach” will be utilized by all states.

Treatment: Limited Tools, Use Strategically

The second leg is treatment. Smith says that after decades without large domestic outbreaks, labeled options are limited.

From the fact that we haven’t had this new tool in our nation, in a large-spread outbreak since the 60s, we don’t have a lot of treatments out there that are labeled for this organism.”

To date, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved four products for large animals:

He cautions, “The goal is not to go out there and just habitually treat your animals just in case. We want to make sure that we’re utilizing these [products] responsibly. There’s not an unlimited supply out there, and so we want to make sure that it’s available for us when we do need it.”

On a positive premises, Smith says treatment will be mandatory and systematic.

“There will be a quarantine placed on that premises. We’re also going to require a certain level of treatment on that premises,” he explains.

There will be protocols for daily mortality disposal, so carcasses don’t become breeding sites.

“The last thing you want to do is bury an animal that has larvae and has the ability to advance.”

He says treatment is also tied to movement out of infested zones, with most animals needing prophylactic treatment before leaving.

Movement Controls: Targeted, Not Statewide Shutdowns

The third leg is movement control, designed to be precise rather than broad-brush. Smith stresses NWS is an infestation, not an infection , emphasizing it is not a systemic disease problem, but an infestation that still demands strong controls.

He says there will be movement restrictions if a premises falls into an infested region. To move animals out of that zone, there will be steps to follow but movement will not be completely shut down.

He explains some exceptions exist:

Animals moving directly to slaughter can go without pre‑movement treatment, but those animals have to be hanging on the rail within 72 hours.
Baby dairy calves must be treated but can move right away if treatment and navel care are documented.

He says Kansas is also coordinating with neighboring states to create “synergistic” rules, especially for cattle from higher‑risk states such as Texas. Cattle entering Kansas from recognized infested zones will face inspection, treatment requirements and at least 14 days in drylot containment on arrival.

NWS is Not a Food Safety Issue

Smith reassures producers and consumers that NWS is not a meat safety threat.

“This is not a food safety issue,” he says. “If an animal is presented to slaughter, it has a screwworm wound then it has the ability to be trimmed. That carcass will not be condemned. There are no restrictions on any inspected product for food safety reasons.”

Smith summarizes underpinning all three legs is a commitment to dynamic planning and continuity. He notes a revised USDA playbook is forthcoming and that “plans will be a little bit dynamic” as they learn more.

The core message for producers is clear: watch your cattle, report early, use treatments wisely and expect targeted movement controls — not blanket shutdowns — if NWS crosses the border.

USDA Announces Sterile Fly Production Facility Construction Contract

USDA and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) announced March 9 a construction contract with Mortenson Construction to build a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas.

This facility is a key component in U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ sweeping 5-prong strategy to fight NWS. USACE is partnering with USDA and will provide oversight for the contract, design, engineering and construction of the facility.

“The Army Corps of Engineers is an essential partner in bringing this facility to life and further highlights the Trump Administration’s government-wide effort to fight the New World Screwworm threat in Mexico,” Rollins says. “The Army Corps is the best in the business and their engineering expertise and proven track record in delivering complex projects will help ensure we can build a modern, resilient facility that protects American agriculture from invasive pests for decades to come. This first-of-its-kind facility on U.S. soil will ensure we are not reliant on other countries for sterile flies.”

A sterile fly production facility is a specialized biosecure complex where NWS flies are raised and sterilized using irradiation and then released into targeted areas.

USDA currently produces about 100 million sterile flies per week at the COPEG facility in Panama and disperses them within and just north of affected areas in Mexico. In addition to the COPEG facility in Panama, USDA invested $21 million to support Mexico’s renovation of an existing fruit fly facility in Metapa , which will double NWS production capacity once complete.

With ongoing support from APHIS technical experts, Mexico anticipates sterile fly production will begin at this facility in summer 2026. The new facility at Moore Air Base will be the only U.S.-based sterile fly production facility and will work in tandem with facilities in Panama and Mexico to help eradicate the pest and protect American agriculture.

USDA and USACE will break ground on this new facility later this spring, after initial planning and development meetings with the new contractor. By November 2027, the production facility at Moore Air Base is expected to reach its initial goal of producing 100 million sterile flies per week. After that, construction will continue at the facility to increase production with the long-term goal of producing 300 million sterile flies per week.

Leadership Is Costing You More Than You Think

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 15:04:55 GMT

When deciding how to make ranches more profitable, there is often one overlooked area of improvement — leadership. Strong leadership on ranches impacts profitability through improved employee retention, continued learning and more confident decision-making. Tom and Terryn Drieling are true examples of how investing in leadership builds a more profitable ranch and an enjoyable lifestyle.

“I think it’s our role as ranch managers to provide an opportunity for the next generation. It’s our responsibility for everybody to have an opportunity regardless of what their background is,” explains Tom.

He has managed a unit of a ranch in the Nebraska Sandhills for more than 10 years, and Terryn works as seasonal help in addition to operating her own business, which helps people in rural communities improve their own lifestyles and leadership skills.

“I think that having good leadership is so important because it kind of sets the tone for the rest of the crew,” says Terryn. “If you have somebody in the leadership role that can create a good work environment and bring everybody together, you’re going to have a more enjoyable workplace and improved production and efficiency.”

Tom has been very intentional about improving his own leadership skills, and the results are clear to both his crew and general manager.

He shares, “The work I was doing for myself was extravagant enough that my boss saw it. We saw that in profitability, the motivation of our guys, the production of our herds and the way we interacted with the other units.”

He is a big believer in utilizing continuing education opportunities to improve leadership, but making the decision to do introspective leadership work is what has made the biggest difference.

“When we first started here and Tom took over the unit manager position, there was definitely some communication hangups,” shares Terryn. “But over the years, Tom has really done a great job of being introspective and doing some inner work, and learning different ways to communicate with people.”

He spent time learning not only which communication styles work best for him but also those he works with on the ranch.

She says, “Watching that transformation has been really cool…the culture has shifted and now everyone else is starting to do the work too. It’s fun when we crew up.”

While impactful, this wasn’t an overnight shift. It took time and lots of effort.

Tom says, “Now I’m kind of working on my tone and my delivery when I communicate, and I’m not going to lie to you, it’s taken time, it’s taken a ton of work.”

Improving leadership on operations starts with you and doing a self-audit of sorts.

“In stockmanship, the first thing that we need to have to handle our cattle in a low-stress manner is self-awareness. We need to be aware of our energy and what that is conveying to our animals,” explains Terryn. “The second thing is social awareness. We need to be aware of what our animals are telling us. And animals are really good at reflecting things back to us…start there.”

Animals can tell you if you came into a situation with big energy, angry, anxious or calm.

Terryn says, “And then you can take it back to your human-to-human interactions and you can see how people respond to you and reflect back and see what’s going on inside of you and use that as information to improve your own leadership.”

During this process, it’s important to remember that nobody gets it right all the time. We are humans.

“You’re not going to have perfect communication all the time. What’s important is repair,” says Terryn. “If you come into a situation and it doesn’t go well, you can always go back and say, ‘Hey, I am really sorry. I came in really hot and I’m sure that did not feel good.’”

In situations where leadership from employers feels lacking, remember to lead up!

She shares, “You can kind of foster some of that leadership within yourself by asking the right questions, opening lines of communication and providing positivity in a slew of negativity. Because I really do believe in the stockmanship phrase, ‘good movement draws good movement,’ and good movement starts with us.”

As Tom reflects on the benefits he’s seen from improving his own leadership skills, he encourages others to invest in their employees and genuinely care about their well-being.

He says, “Always be continuing education. Invest in yourself, invest in your employees. I don’t think enough credit is given to the guys that are operational. I think they get taken for granted. Invest in those people.”

Employees have lives outside of work, and that can’t be forgotten.

He says, “I want my guys to come home at the end of the day, 100% healthy. They have their own lives… I want to do everything I can to leave those guys to do their job, but supply them with the ability and the tools to know I have their back. If you need something, call me. If you need a direction, call me. If you need a tool, call me.”

Transparency in communication also can’t be overlooked.

“Try to be transparent in as many things as you can, but attitude is everything and the tone that you come to work with and the tone that you interact with your employees sets the entire tone for your company as a culture,” Tom shares.

Remember, good ranch leadership doesn’t just impact today’s generation, it impacts the ones to come too.

Tom says, “I think it’s our duty as leaders and ranch managers or production agricultural people to help the next generation be more qualified for our roles than what we are. They’re going to have to provide more with less.”

Listen to the full conversation on the Casual Cattle Conversations podcast .

Zoetis to Acquire Neogen’s Animal Genomics Business

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 13:12:29 GMT

Today, Neogen Corporation , an innovative leader in food safety solutions, announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its global genomics business to Zoetis Inc. , the world’s leading animal health company, for $160 million, subject to customary closing adjustments.

Neogen’s planned divestiture, which had been previously announced, was part of the company’s portfolio review strategy to simplify the business and focus on core strategic markets.

“Neogen’s genomics business ( GeneSeek ) has been a pioneer in advanced DNA testing for livestock and has set a high standard for innovation across the livestock sector, with globally recognized solutions spanning genomic prediction, herd improvement and data integration,” says Tom Schultz, Neogen head of commercial global genomics."We’re excited to build on that foundation in our future with Zoetis and to continue advancing tools that strengthen animal health, performance and overall profitability. Customers can expect a thoughtful transition and continued excellent service,”

According to a Zoetis release , “This acquisition aligns directly with Zoetis’ strategy to drive future livestock innovation through genomics, reinforcing its commitment to livestock producers worldwide and advancing its precision animal health portfolio. By integrating Neogen’s genomic technologies and data solutions, Zoetis is expanding its capabilities to deliver predictive insights, individualized care and greater value to customers across major livestock and companion animal species.”

Neogen’s genomics business serves customers in more than 120 countries through its five laboratories in the U.S., Brazil, Australia, China and the United Kingdom, as well as an office location in Canada. The business leverages a comprehensive genotyping platform of fixed array and sequencing technologies, as well as software solutions that empower customers to make informed and data-driven decisions. The business is a leader in U.S. beef and dairy genomics , and its cutting-edge technologies enable highly accurate, scalable genetic testing and deeper insights into animal health, productivity and sustainability.

“This transaction is part of the company’s strategic portfolio review and allows the company to accelerate de-leveraging and improve profitability going forward,” says Mike Nassif, Neogen’s chief executive officer and president. “Furthermore, this deal allows us to focus in areas where the company has the most significant competitive advantage and further leverage our core capabilities in food and animal safety. We are committed to a smooth transition for customers, employees and other stakeholders, and believe the business is well positioned to thrive under Zoetis’ ownership.”

GeneSeek has been a pioneer in advanced DNA testing for livestock and companion animal industries, leveraging a global presence to deliver highly accurate, data-driven insights that contribute to improved animal performance and health, as well as profitability, in the beef, dairy and other industries. Through the flagship Igenity and GGP portfolio and rapid turnaround times, the business offers returns-focused genomic tools and globally recognized standards in genomic prediction to accelerate herd improvement and enable genomics trait screening. Supported by the Encompass platform for genomic data integration and strategic partnerships advancing DNA-backed traceability, GeneSeek is committed to continued innovation and scientific excellence.

“We’re excited to build on our innovative genomics portfolio offerings in our future with Zoetis and to continue advancing tools that strengthen overall animal health, performance, and profitability,” Schultz says. “At Zoetis, genomics becomes a core part of a company fully dedicated to animal health. Zoetis brings deep scientific capabilities, operational scale, and a long-term commitment to genetics and data.”

Jamie Brannan, Zoetis chief commercial officer, adds, “The addition of Neogen’s genomics business strengthens our commitment to advancing animal health through innovation, data and technology. As we continue to grow our leading innovative solutions in Precision Animal Health, this acquisition brings complementary capabilities that expand predictive insights and individualized care, enabling us to deliver added value to customers. Together, we are shaping the future of animal health, empowering customers with the tools they need to support healthier animals and sustainable livestock production globally.”

The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first half of the company’s 2027 fiscal year, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions. The net proceeds from the transaction are expected to be used primarily for debt reduction. The Neogen genomics business generated approximately $90 million in sales during fiscal year 2025.

“At the time of the announcement, nothing will change,” Schultz explains. “Our customers’ contacts and ordering processes remain the same — products, services and support also remain the same. Customers can expect a thoughtful transition, continued service continuity, and future benefits from Zoetis’ focus in the business. Any changes will be communicated well in advance.”

Zoetis says it is committed to a seamless integration, supporting continuity for colleagues and customers, and building on Neogen’s legacy of innovation in genomics.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:08:07 GMT

As of Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. beef cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, continuing a downward trend. Despite a year of strong prices, USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrank another 0.35% and now sits at its smallest size in 75 years.

“I would say the story continues,” summarizes Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University. “I mean, it really doesn’t change the pattern that we’ve been in for the last three years now.”

Quick Report Stats:

Total Cattle and Calves Inventory: 86.2 million head (Down 0.35%)
Beef Cow Herd: 27.6 million head (Down 1%)
2025 Calf Crop: 32.9 million head (Smallest since 1941)
Beef Replacement Heifers: 4.71 million head (Up 1%)

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, calls the report bullish.

“I think the big picture message of this report is expansion, while there was some signs of it within this report, by and large expansion remains elusive at this point,” he says.

What Are the Big Takeaways from the USDA Report?

According to Peel, the data highlights two critical areas:

1. Shrinking Cow Herd: The beef cow inventory fell 1% to 27.6 million head.
“The industry technically got a little smaller in 2025,” Peel says.

Linnell adds, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. However, that’s not what this report showed.”

2. Heifer Retention Signs: Beef replacement heifers rose 1% to 4.71 million.
“There was a slight uptick in beef replacement heifers, not enough to amount to any growth in 2026, or probably even in 2027, but maybe it’s the beginnings [of a rebuild].”

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing Inc. president, says the report indicates while replacement heifers was up 1% and those expected to calve were also up 1% from 2024 or 17% of the beef cow herd.

“From 2015 to 2018 when producers began aggressively building herds, the average number of heifers that were identified as replacements on the Jan. 1 inventory was 6.2 million or an average heifer retention rate of 21%,” he explains.

Nalivka says heifer slaughter during 2025, at 9.5 million, was down 7% from the prior year but still represented 52% of the heifers weighing more than 500 lb. on Jan. 1, 2025. In 2024, the industry slaughtered 56% of the January 1 heifers weighing more than 500 lb.

“When the industry was retaining heifers to build herds, the percentage of heifers weighing over 500 lb. that were slaughtered ranged from 39% to 49%,” he adds.

Why is the 2025 Calf Crop Significant?

The calf crop estimate was reduced to 32.9 million head — a 2% drop from 2024. This marks the smallest U.S. calf crop since 1941. This scarcity will be the primary driver for market dynamics in the coming years.

The calf crop in 1941 was approximately 31.8 million head. While the industry saw a significant liquidation in 2014, the calf crop that year only dropped to roughly 33.5 million. This means the current contraction has pushed production levels back more than 80 years.

Outlook: What Will Cattle and Beef Prices Do in 2026?

Peel predicts the small calf crop and tightening feeder supplies will push prices even higher.

“We’ve got record-high prices, and we’re going to see them push even higher for cattle and beef,” Peel says.

He reminds producers it’s important to keep in mind that it’s not just about supply.

“Demand has also continued to be remarkably good for beef as prices have gone up,” he says. “Beef prices have increased relative to pork and poultry. There are alternative proteins that consumers could be turning to, and they’re not. So that’s a very positive sign from a beef industry standpoint.”

The “Historically Slow” Rebuild

Unlike the rapid expansion seen 10 years ago, Peel expects this cycle to be much slower. Producers are cautious, remembering how quickly record prices vanished in the past.

“I do think we’re probably beginning, but it’s certainly not a concerted effort,” Peel says. “There’s not a strong, broad-based initiative in the industry. It will probably grow, but I think it’s going to continue to grow pretty slowly.”

He explains the industry has outlasted the previous cycle highs by two-plus years.

“I think producers are coming around to the idea that this is a more sustained story,” Peel says.

What is the Take-Home Message for Producers?

The market is signaling a desperate need for a rebuild.

“The incentive is there, the value of forage is there,” he says. “If you’ve got forage you can use to raise calves, the market wants you to do that. And if you aren’t fully stocked, then it’s encouraging you to think about doing that. I think the main message for producers is to take advantage of this market.”

He also encourages producers to maintain the productivity of their herds.

“We have cut cow culling so far in the last two to three years that some of these cows are going to have to be culled going forward,” he explains. “So, we got to have a few more replacement heifers just to maintain the productivity of the herd. Take care of that first and then if you need to restock. I understand the tradeoff between selling them now for what is a record price versus investing in the future, but you know, sooner or later, we have to make that investment and look a little bit farther down the road.”

Other January cattle report highlights include:

Of the 86.2 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million.
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased 2% to 9.57 million.
The number of cattle on feed was down 3% to 13.8 million.

Nalivka adds, “Only time will tell as the year progresses to determine if USDA’s Cattle Inventory is on track. One cross-check will be cattle slaughter which is an actual number reported to USDA by the packers. The inventory is generated from an annual survey number. I understand that USDA aligns annual surveys with the five-year Agricultural Census. To say the least, I have greater confidence in numbers reported to USDA that can cross-check the validity of the survey.”

He does not expect the Cattle Inventory Report to have an impact on cattle numbers or the market going forward through 2026 and into 2027, particularly with a 2% smaller 2025 calf crop.

“Numbers will continue to tighten and when coupled with continued strong demand for beef will support the market at levels at and likely above the market peak seen during third quarter 2025,” he summarizes.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University ag economist, posted on LinkedIn his analysis of the report. He shares state-level beef cow inventory estimates (of seven states with more than 1 million head) Kansas’ 7% decline stands out while Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Texas are estimated to be down 1-3% and Oklahoma and South Dakota are flat. Only Texas has a sizeable increase in estimated replacement heifers.

He shares two broader points:

While it certainly is valuable to count the number of beef cows, understand status of herd expansion, and other factors that is far from a complete story on industry supply dynamics. In short, the industry has implemented a number of efficiency gains resulting in the net effect of more edible beef production per cow in the industry.
It has become way too common to focus on supply and overlook demand dynamics. In fact, recent work with Brian Coffey documents how recent beef price patterns have been impacted more by strong consumer beef demand than any supply-side adjustments .

Analyzing the inventory numbers Peel summarizes, “It’s just amazing to me that we continue down this path. We’ve kept extending the timeline. You know, technically, with the beef cow herd and the way we look at cattle cycles, I thought 2025 would turn out to be officially the low. Well, now we’re even smaller in 2026, so we will have to wait until next year’s number to see whether this is the low. We just keep pushing this timeline out that provides even more opportunities for producers to take advantage of this market.”

Bi-annual Cattle report would be called lightly positive. 1) There was no sign of any type of January 2015 expansion (retained beef heifers +9.5%). 2) Overall, numbers came in just below the four analyst expectation. pic.twitter.com/lvNaDBusz3
— Rich Nelson (@RichNelsonMkts) January 30, 2026

To obtain an accurate measurement of the current state of the U.S. cattle industry, NASS surveyed approximately 35,000 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2026, and calf crop for the entire year of 2025 by internet, mail, telephone or in-person interview.

Your Next Reads:
Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days
CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 16:25:32 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

Cull Cows Defy Seasonality

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:04:31 GMT

All the talk of relaxing tariffs on imported beef, knowing that the majority of our beef imports are lean beef trimmings to go into ground beef competing with cull cow beef, suggested it might be time to take a quick look at the cull cow market.

Most will remember that cull cow prices tend to hit their seasonal lows in the rall. The most important reason for the price decline is that more cows are culled from the herd in the fall.

For beef cattle, the largest proportion of cows are culled in the fall following calf weaning. On the dairy side, cow culling increases from summertime lows. The increase in supplies of cows for sale results in lower prices. Another contributor to lower prices is the end of grilling season, with consumers shifting over to more fall and winter consumption patterns.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

So far this fall, the cull cow market has defied normal seasonality. Southern Plains cull cow auction prices hit about $165 per cwt. back in June and have remained there since then. A couple weeks of declines were followed by rebounds back to about $165 per cwt. National average cutter quality cows have declined recently, slipping about $9 per cwt. to $126.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

While the live cow market has not declined much, the same cannot be said for the cow beef market. The boxed cow beef cutout climbed to $340 per cwt. but has declined to $317 over the last two months. Wholesale 90% lean beef has declined from $436 to $404 per cwt. over the same period. Both the boxed beef cutout and wholesale 90% lean have followed the normal season pattern, declining into the fall.

(USDA-AMS, USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

We are likely to see some increased culling from the dairy side of the beef industry in the coming months. USDA’s latest milk production report indicated the nation’s dairy cow herd at 9.85 million head. That is the largest herd since at least 1993.

Milk production in September was 4% larger than the year before. Milk prices are beginning to decline sharply with increased production. There is no doubt that the increased returns from using beef bull instead of dairy breed semen to produce beef-on-dairy calves is boosting profits and aiding in the dairy herd expansion.

Beef cow culling is likely to remain low due to the historically small cow herd and incentives to expand. More dairy cow culling and less beef cow culling will continue to leave cull cow prices high.

Your Next Read: Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

$4 Feeder Cattle: Dream or Reality?

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 14:50:41 GMT

As October draws to a close, U.S. officials are reportedly going to meet with Mexican counterparts this week to talk about reopening the border . The possibility of trade resuming, coupled with President Donald Trump’s comments on lowering beef prices and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ announcement to “fortify the beef industry,” sent the cattle market spiraling in recent days.

Despite the downturn, the fundamentals haven’t changed: reduced supply and strong consumer demand are fueling record-high market prices.

“The reduction in available supply and robust beef demand to-date has clearly provided price support,” says Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University professor of agricultural economics. “Tied to that is the biggest risk in my opinion — beef demand. Anything that erodes beef demand strength, most likely macroeconomic and consumer income in nature in my opinion, will put downward pressure on cattle of all weight classes.”

Tonsor says he never gave $4 much thought until the past couple of years.

“If we adjust for inflation or consider production costs, $4 feeders aren’t what they used to be. It takes $4-plus feeders to generate the net returns we used to get from lower prices,” he explains. “These are profitable prices for ranchers — and it’s about time.”

Tonsor predicts feeder cattle prices to continue under current conditions but does not predict increased profitability due to increasing operating costs.

“The 2025 bull market has been exceptional by every measure,” summarizes Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness senior beef industry analyst. “500-lb. steer prices are now more than 50% higher than last year, and 800-lb. steer prices are nearly there at just under a 50% price increase year-over-year.”

As a frame of reference, the CME feeder cattle cash index, which captures the average 700 lb. to 899 lb. steer price, averaged $367.08/cwt. the week of Oct. 20. This fall, livestock auction markets across the country have reported lightweight feeder cattle surpassing the $4 mark.

“I think it is entirely possible for feeder cattle to get to $4,” says Don Close, Terrain Ag senior animal protein analyst. “However, I think it will be late summer and fall 2026.”

According to Close, there are three critical components for feeder prices today:
1. Mexican border reopening
2. What disruptions could come to the beef-on-dairy supply
3. Feed prices

“Of that list, Mexico border closure is the real wild card,” he explains. “I don’t see a measurable disruption to beef-on-dairy or feed costs in the near term.”

When Will We Hit the High?

Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains the highest average prices are likely a year or more after heifer retention begins.

“We don’t have any confirmation heifer retention has started to any significant level in 2025,” Peel says. “We have already pushed off any signs of herd rebuilding by one to two years longer than I earlier expected, and we are looking at extending it another year if heifer retention does not start in the fourth quarter. Because the response has been much slower this time than previous cattle cycles, prices have certainly gone higher than I would have expected a year or two ago — though I did expect record-high prices.”

Peel predicts the next expansion phase will be different than the 2014-19 expansion cycle.

“The 2014-19 herd expansion was historically rapid, this current one is historically slow,” he says. “It is a combination of a lengthy list of factors that combine to make this a slow response, and it looks like it will remain a slow, lengthy process.”

Close shares his thoughts on the complexities of the current cycle:

Drought and economic stress. “As an industry, we didn’t fully recognize the severity of the drought as well as the degree of economic stress to the sector,” he says. “The fallout of the 2014 to 2015 price drop is still fresh on producers’ minds, so they have been using the prices of the past three years to get balance sheets in order, pay down debt and now are starting to make capital improvements.”
Producer age. “The average age of cow owners is a factor, so many have used current prices to liquidate and retire,” he says.
Female costs. “Replacement female prices that range from $3,000 to $5,000 restricts and scares some away,” he says. “That is only compounded with the addition of current interest rates.”
Cow size. The escalation in average cow size limits how many cows can run on a given unit of pasture.“
Land. “You hear producers make comments on the difficulty to find additional pasture in order to expand,” he says.

“This cycle has been driven or limited from a combination of all the above,” he says. “Our view is we need to rebuild by 2 to 2.5 million head. Keep in mind, given the escalation in carcass weights, we don’t need as many cattle to produce an equal quantity of beef.”

Close adds his thoughts regarding the impact of last week.

“Given all of the turmoil over the past week it is going to be even more difficult to trigger expansion,” he says. “There is no work around for destroyed producer confidence. I think current market action will further delay expansion.”

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor Predicts Bull Market to Continue

Cattle prices are expected to stay high well into 2026, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor from Farm Journal. Nearly half of agricultural economists surveyed (47%) believe the current bull market in cattle could continue another 19 to 24 months, while another 27% say it could last 13 to 18 months. Only 7% expect prices to peak within the next six months.

“This run isn’t over,” one economist wrote. “At current prices we will see no or little herd expansion.” Another adds the fundamental supply side remains tight: “Clear signals that domestic beef production is increasing may be the key catalyst for a market top.”

“This is a nature of biology to some extent, it takes a while once you even start to retain a heifer for that heifer to produce a calf that then becomes a feeder calf that then becomes a fed calf that then becomes beef at the grocery store itself,” says Ben Brown, an Extension economist with the University of Missouri. “I don’t think we’ve seen necessarily the top of this cattle market yet.”

Even if cattle prices are close to seeing a top, that doesn’t mean prices will crash, he adds.

October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

What Could End the Rally?

When asked what might trigger a peak in cattle prices, responses to the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor were mixed — but demand destruction and herd rebuilding topped the list. Economists were asked to choose between five options, including:

The reopening of the U.S./Mexico border to Mexican feeder cattle imports
U.S. economic concerns with fallout from trade tensions with China
Removal of tariffs that would resume high levels of beef imports from Brazil
Demand destruction in the U.S. market

One respondent notes, “All of the above are relevant, but clear signals that domestic beef production is increasing may be more important.” Others pointed to a slowing U.S. economy or producers “beginning to hold back replacement heifers” as potential turning points.

“I have no idea what creates the top, but at current prices, we will see no/little herd expansion,” adds yet another economist.

“Beef Prices Can Stay High Longer Than Most Expect”

Economists agree the U.S. cattle market remains fundamentally strong, supported by limited supplies, robust export demand and solid retail prices. However, they caution the same forces keeping prices high — tight herds, high feed costs and inflation — could eventually cool the rally.

As one economist sums it up: “Beef prices can stay high longer than most expect — until consumers finally say ‘enough.’ That’s when we’ll see the turn.”

How Beef and Dairy Genetics Are Smarter and More Profitable

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 17:12:49 GMT

Understanding your customer’s needs, the power of data and the need for continuous innovation is key to the success of beef and dairy producers. Lorna Marshall, Select Sires vice president of beef genetics, emphasizes the critical role of technology, data and strategic breeding in creating value in the industry today.

Marshall was the featured guest in “ The Future of Beef Show ” podcast Episode 13 .

Her perspective highlights the beef industry’s evolution from traditional breeding methods to a more sophisticated, technology-driven approach.

Marshall’s journey in the artificial insemination (AI) industry spans decades. She explains the AI industry has seen significant consolidation during her career — from 15 cooperatives to now three to four major organizations. She says Select Sires remains the only cooperative AI organization in the U.S.

“Whatever I see happen in the dairy world, beef is going to follow it in five to seven years,” she explains.

Key takeaways from the podcast include:

1. Beef-on-Dairy Evolution: The beef on dairy market has transformed dramatically since 2018, creating more valuable cattle by crossing beef bulls with dairy cows.

She says AI companies are focusing on terminal traits for beef-on-dairy, creating bulls specifically designed for producing high-value feeder cattle.

The biggest challenge in the beef-on-dairy space is semen fertility. Marshall acknowledges male-sexed semen would be a good option for beef-on-dairy, but the conception level is not where it needs to be today.

“Fertility is three times more important than any other trait,” Marshall explains about working with dairy producers. “Sexed semen, while we have really improved that product a lot, it still does not have the same level of fertility and conception rate.”

She adds management and cow fertility play a role in the success of sexed semen conception so it is something that can be considered herd by herd, not something implemented across the entire dairy population.

“If I could figure out how to improve bull fertility,” she says. “That would be the No. 1 thing I could do to improve business for Select Sires, or really, any AI organization.”

Fertility is not highly heritable, and there can easily be a 20-percentage-point difference between high and low bulls.

“The thing I love most about beef-on-dairy is, I love data, and I, finally, for the first time in my career, have data to play with,” Marshall says.

2. Genomic Testing: There’s a growing potential for genomic testing in beef cattle, similar to what’s been done in the dairy industry, to improve genetic selection and herd performance.

“If I was a commercial beef producer, I’d be wanting to test my commercial females and figure out who are really the elite ones,” she explains. “And then let’s go build our replacement heifers out of those.”

3. Breed and Genetic Trends: Genetic selection is becoming increasingly precise and data driven. The future of beef genetics lies in comprehensive trait measurement and genomic understanding.

She also emphasizes the beef industry’s evolution from single-trait selection to a more comprehensive strategy.

“There is always a pendulum changing or swinging,” Marshall says. “You’re always going to have people that are more willing to go out on those pendulums farther than others. And that’s what I love about our commercial industry, they always kind of keep the seedstock industry a little bit grounded.”

She explains at Select Sires they strive to provide the customer what they really want.

“We need some of those extremes, honestly, to kind of move the industry forward in different areas,” she says. “Look what we’ve done on traits like marbling. We’ve totally changed the beef demand dynamic, because we’ve created a more palatable product that our consumers really like.”

Comparing the seedstock and commercial beef industries, she says seedstock producers generally select for extreme in traits trying to be breed leading.

“Our commercial customers have almost always selected more for balance,” she summarizes. “But really the secret sauce to getting bulls that are going to sell lots of semen would combine phenotype and genotype, and then their pedigree is always important.”

Marshall predicts the industry will continue to develop new traits that we don’t measure today.

“We may get rid of some of the traits that we have and measure things in a much more profitable way, like age to harvest,” she adds.

She also emphasizes the need for bulls that will produce the next generation of the nation’s cow herd.

“We better have some maternal bulls in our lineup, because beef producers are ready to start rebuilding the cow herd,” Marshall says.

4. Labor Barrier for AI : The labor needed for synchronization is a critical challenge in AI adoption.

Marshall identifies labor as the primary barrier to increasing AI adoption.

“Until we figure out how to synchronize that cow with less labor, it’s going to be really hard to move the needle in a significant way,” she says.

Marshall summarizes the future of the beef industry relies on these four strategies:

- Embracing technological innovation
- Maintaining genetic diversity
- Focusing on commercial producer needs
- Continuous learning and adaptation

Check out the podcast to learn more about how Marshall believes how data, genetics and innovation is shaping the future of beef cattle production.

Harness the Full Potential of Your BRD Vaccine with the Right Adjuvant

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 16:03:14 GMT

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is one of the greatest threats to young calves, and gaining protection through vaccines isn’t always straightforward. Maternal antibodies, passed through colostrum, can block some vaccines from boosting immunity. The key to overcoming that hurdle? Choosing a vaccine with the right adjuvant.

Maternal Antibodies Can Interfere with Vaccines

“Years ago, vaccine response was so variable in young calves,” says Curt Vlietstra, DVM, Boehringer Ingelheim. “At the time, we didn’t know if their immune system simply wasn’t ready, or if there was a problem with the vaccines. With the research we have now, we understand that the majority of interference comes from maternal antibodies that are still present in the calf at the time of vaccination.”

Passed down from the cow via colostrum, maternal antibodies are not only a calf’s first line of defense against disease, but they also have the tendency to neutralize vaccines.

Those maternal antibodies naturally wane when the calf is between 2 and 6 months of age. As this maternal immunity dwindles, vaccination becomes critical in boosting and building calf immunity. The largest challenge in bridging these two forms of immunity is timing. Chris Chase, DVM, Professor, Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, South Dakota State University, says finding a vaccine with the right adjuvant can eliminate this guessing game.

Adjuvants Are Critical to Capturing Immunity in Young Calves

Adjuvants — although often overlooked — can determine whether a calf successfully develops a robust, lasting immune response, or remains vulnerable to BRD pressure. They work by drawing immune cells to the injection site, and helping the calf’s body recognize and remember the vaccine. Some adjuvants also slow the release of the vaccine, giving the immune system more time to respond.

“With the types of adjuvants we have now, we can get strong, long-lasting immune responses, even in calves with maternal antibodies,” Chase shares. “Although, just because a vaccine label says ‘adjuvanted’ doesn’t mean it offers the protection we need. It’s important that we ask what kind of adjuvant it is and what it’s proven to do.”

Over the last few decades, peer-reviewed studies and fieldwork have shown that Pyramid ^® vaccines can succeed, even in the face of maternal immunity, thanks to its unique adjuvant, Metasim^®. Specifically designed to address the challenges of early calfhood vaccination, the dual-phase technology of the Metasim adjuvant can stimulate a balanced, robust immune response in calves as young as 30 days of age.

(Boehringer Ingelheim)

“Historically, it was accepted as fact that maternal antibodies would block the injectable vaccine,” Vlietstra says. “Now we know Metasim works alongside the preexisting antibodies, not against them.”

Systemic Immunity Builds Long-Lasting Protection

Another key factor in vaccine selection is delivery method. For a time, intranasal vaccines were thought to be the only effective option to protect young calves against BRD. While intranasal vaccines can offer local immunity for calves at risk of BRD exposure soon after birth, some may miss the opportunity to stimulate robust, systemic immunity.

While local immunity helps block infection right where it starts (which is usually in the respiratory tract with BRD), systemic immunity is what builds broad, long-lasting protection, by training the calf’s entire immune system to respond.

When calves encounter BRD pathogens weeks or even months after vaccination, a strong systemic immune response helps them recognize and fight off infection more effectively, reducing severity of disease and its long-term impact on health and performance.

“In some ways, we’ve become very reliant on intranasals,” Vlietstra notes . “I’ve seen protocols that say, ‘This calf may not respond to an injectable, so let’s give another intranasal.’ That choice ends up potentially delaying systemic protection.”

Injectable vaccines with the right adjuvant have been proven to stimulate both local immunity in the respiratory tract, and systemic immunity that circulates in the bloodstream.

Even the Best Vaccine Needs Correct Timing and Care

“There are plenty of producers and veterinarians who have firsthand experience of vaccines not working,” Vlietstra says. “If we’re not seeing results, it’s time to evaluate how we’re using the product and when.”

It’s common to schedule vaccination alongside other times calves are being worked, like weaning or transportation. While this may save labor and time up front, vaccinating calves during other stressful events can limit immune response.

“If cattle have had a long truck ride, ideally, we’d let them unload and rest for 24 to 48 hours before we vaccinate,” Chase explains. “I know not all operations have the resources to do this due to labor constraints, but water and rest time after a stressful event will set cattle up for a better immune response.”

To get the most of any vaccination program, good animal handling, husbandry and biosecurity protocols play a role in preventing and controlling BRD. By staying on top of health management and using products according to label, vaccines are more likely to capture desired results.

“The world’s best vaccine is not going to overcome overwhelming challenges,” Chase stresses.

The needs of every herd are different. Working closely with a veterinarian is key to finding success tailored to your cattle and operation.

Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 12:14:48 GMT

Lance Zimmerman is a senior beef industry analyst with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness and helped provide research and insights for Drover’s State of the Beef Industry report.

Cow liquidation is in the rearview. Heifer retention is underway. The U.S. cattle cycle is officially shifting into rebuild mode, but this recovery will not be a stampede. It’s shaping up as a slow, strategic climb.

Beef processing bottlenecks, persistent drought, soaring feed costs, labor shortages and post-pandemic friction kept cow-calf margins relatively tight from 2016 to 2022. Some of those pressures have eased, but with herd numbers set to grow, others could easily resurface. As producers hold back more heifer calves this fall, herd replenishment remains a cautious and calculated exercise.

Rabobank expects the Jan. 1, 2026, beef cow inventory to be 28 million head, up 200,000 head from the prior year. A second increase of less than 500,000 head is likely over the following year. In short, do not expect dramatic shifts early in this rebuilding effort. From 2024 to 2026, the nation’s beef cow herd will hold relatively steady (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: U.S. beef cow inventory on January 1

(USDA, Rabobank 2026-2030 forecast)

More meaningful herd growth is forecast from Jan. 1, 2027, into the early 2030s. But even then, the peak inventory projection is likely to be 500,000 to 1 million head below the 2019 highs, and that is not necessarily a bad thing.

Thanks to long-term efficiency gains across the U.S. beef sector, a rebuild topping 30.5 million cows might be more than enough to hit new record high in total production. Per capita beef supplies could reach levels not seen in more than two decades. Still, adding upward of 2.5 million cows during this next phase will be complicated.

According to the latest Farm Journal State of the Beef Industry survey , just 47% of producers are considering expanding their cow herd within the next five years, a four-point drop from last year’s already modest number.

Factors Affecting Herd Building

The hesitation is rooted in hard realities. Rising input costs, from fencing and equipment to replacement heifers, are straining budgets. And it is not just the higher price tags. Volatility is adding pressure. Fluctuating expenses are muddying financial planning, tightening cash flow, and making profit targets feel increasingly out of reach.

Access to pastureland is still a sore spot. Prices keep climbing, while land-use restrictions and expanding suburbs are blocking opportunities for cattle producers.

Federal government shifts are not helping morale either. Regulatory red tape and compliance demands already pull significant time and resources. Adding the moving target of trade policy and a maze of new rules, and producers find themselves burning hours to stay current. The burden is exhausting.

Behind much of the fatigue in cattle production lies a familiar challenge: aging producers and a shrinking labor pool. Finding help is tough and getting tougher.

Older ranchers worry about health, longevity and who will take the reins next. Meanwhile, the next generation faces a different battle: securing capital, gaining know-how and finding tenacity that defined those who came before. The grit is there — so are the obstacles.

Given these constraints, can the beef cow inventory forecast outlined earlier really take shape in the coming years? Improving drought conditions and profitability help. Survey responses suggest it will take even more than that.

USDA’s latest Census of Agriculture reveals a clear trend: big cow-calf operations are getting bigger. Since 2012, producers with 200 head or more added 2.2 million cows, a 20% jump. Meanwhile, operations less than 200 head lost 2 million, an 11% drop. The shift was established by 2017 and accelerated into 2022.

Rabobank sees the 2027 census amplifying the trend: big operations getting even bigger. They have the capital cushion to absorb risk and make bold moves without jeopardizing the ranch. That is critical when bred cow and heifer prices push past $4,000 per head in the next few years and calf prices soften as supply grows later in the cattle cycle.

Producer age matters even more in this rebuilding effort. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, beef cattle operators now average 58.3 years old, the oldest among all U.S. livestock and poultry producer groups.

Younger ranchers might be more willing to bet bigger during this rebuild. For many families, it’s a natural handoff, an exit lane for older operators to transition decision-making to the next generation. Also, herd expansion could unlock new revenue and pull sons and daughters back into the ranch.

Cow-calf producers stand apart in the beef supply chain as fixed-cost operators in a largely margin-driven sector, but that distinction is blurring.

As herd size grows larger and ranch leadership skews younger, margin thinking will gain ground. Larger producers focus on profit per cow or per acre. Younger ranchers lean into data and strategy.

With volatile market prices and uncertainty surrounding the cattle business, margin-minded cow-calf operators are not just likely to evolve during this cow herd rebuild. They are essential to the U.S. restocking effort.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

For more insights to the report as well as producer and economist perspectives, watch the State of the Beef Industry Webinar exclusive on FarmJournal.tv . The panel includes Ken Odde, a South Dakota cattle producer, along with Matt Perrier, Angus seedstock producer from Kansas, and Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch senior beef industry analyst. You won’t want to miss their thoughts on the beef industry today and in the future.

Your Next Read: Consumer Craze for Protein Drives Beef Demand

— Lance Zimmerman serves as RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness’ senior beef industry analyst. Discovering and implementing decision-friendly business solutions for agricultural and food companies has been the focus of his career. Growing up on a western Kansas farming operation that includes a commercial cow-calf herd has fueled his passion for the industry.

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 16:41:54 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Wisconsin Ag Regulators Propose Massive Livestock Fee Increases

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 19:33:29 GMT

The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) is proposing changes to rules, ATCP 10 and 12 , regulating animal disease and movement and animal markets, dealers and truckers.

According to the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation (WFBF) , these changes include massive fee increases that will be a substantial financial burden to markets, dealers and truckers that will unavoidably be passed down to farmers.

The license fee for what the DATCP calls “Animal Market Class A” would change from $420 to $7,430. A late fee for those markets would also increase by nearly 1,700% by shifting from the current price of $84 to $1,486. The registration fee paid by about 1,000 truckers transporting livestock in the state would increase 517%, from the current price of $60 to $370.

(Wisconsin Farm Bureau)

WFBF Government Relations Director Jason Mugnaini says it is important to clarify that Wisconsin’s program had historically received state funding support through DATCP, but this proposal shifts that onto industry fees.

The WFBF also reports the inspections and public health activity costs of these programs have previously been partially funded by state funding in Wisconsin, as they are in neighboring states. DATCP’s proposal shifts the full cost of these programs onto industry fees.

DATCP Secretary Randy Romanski explains the fees have not been adjusted since 2009 and the increases are needed to maintain critical animal health and transportation services.

“This program is currently in deficit because these have not been adjusted for so long,” Romanski explains. “Costs have increased during that time.”

He is transparent about the financial realities driving these increases. While the percentage increase might seem large, it reflects 17 years of accumulated cost pressures. He summarizes the goal is not to burden the industry, but to ensure the continued provision of critical animal health and movement services.

According to Sam GO, DATCP communications director, the DATCP Division of Animal Health receives federal funding through cooperative agreements for specific goals and objectives, such as animal disease surveillance and animal traceability. The cooperative agreements are separate from the programs in the proposed fee rules and do not fund the programs in the proposed fee rules.

She explains as federal funding for the cooperative agreements has decreased, those activities that are partially federally funded (such as animal disease surveillance and animal traceability) need to have a larger portion of their costs covered by the state animal health general program revenue. That means there is less state GPR remaining to cover the deficit in program revenue for the ATCP 10 and ATCP 12 programs.

The ATCP 10 fees support the following animal health programs: Certificate of Veterinary Inspection (CVI) Forms, Intermediate Handling Facilities, Disease Certifications (Brucellosis, Tuberculosis, Pseudorabies), Equine Infectious Anemia Retests, Equine Quarantine Stations, Feed Lots, Medical Separation, National Poultry Improvement Plan (NPIP), Farm-Raised Deer, and Fish Farms.

The Process

Romanski explains the administrative rule process is collaborative and takes about two and a half years. He says the process is designed to be collaborative with multiple opportunities for public input and engagement. He encourages stakeholders to not just critique the increases, but to offer constructive feedback and potential alternative solutions.

The current stage is specifically about public comment and engagement. He says the department wants to hear from industry members, producers and other stakeholders. They are actively seeking input that can help shape the final rule package.

The public can participate and provide feedback that can be considered by the department’s staff through several channels:

Attending public hearings
Submitting written comments by Oct. 15

The remaining hearings will be hosted virtually and at the Prairie Oaks State Office Building, Room 106, 2811 Agriculture Dr., Madison, WI 53708. For more information, dial-in instructions and to register for online access click on the ATCP 10 or 12.

ATCP 10:
• Monday, Sept. 15 – 1 p.m.
• Wednesday, Sept. 17 – 9 a.m.

ATCP 12 :
• Tuesday, Sept. 16 – 1 p.m.
• Wednesday, Sept. 17 – 1 p.m.

Individuals can submit written comments by Oct. 15 to: Angela.fisher1@wisconsin.gov or Angela Fisher, DATCP, P.O. Box 8911, Madison, WI 53708

Romanski explains after the public comment period, DATCP staff will review all submissions, consider suggested changes, and then present any revisions to their policy-making board. This ensures multiple layers of review and public involvement.

Neighboring State Comparisons

According to the proposal document , programs in adjacent states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois) are similar to Wisconsin, as all are based on federal standards. Neighboring states primarily fund these types of programs through general program revenue; therefore, they have lower fees than Wisconsin’s current fees. While Wisconsin’s program fees are collected from a small number of licensees, these critical programs have impacts and benefits across animal health, animal industries and public health.

In Iowa, a livestock market permit is $50 per year. The livestock dealer and livestock market agent permits are $10 per year. A bull breeder license is $20 every two years. A livestock dealer or order buyer permit is $50 per year. A feeder pig dealer agent permit is $6 every two years. A pig dealer’s agent permit is $3 per year.

In Michigan, an action Class I is $400 per year. A buying station (Class II) is $250 per year. The remaining fees are waived for veterans: A dealer (Class III) is $50 per year. An agent broker (Class III) is $50 per year. A collection point (Class III) is $50 per year. A trucker (Class IV) is $25 per year.

In Minnesota, a livestock market agency and public stockyard is $300 per year. A livestock dealer is $100 per year. A livestock dealer agent is $50 per year.

In Illinois, a livestock auction market license is $200 per year. The livestock dealer license is $25 for a new license, $10 for the annual renewal, as well as $10 for each location in addition to the first location, and $5 for each employee. A feeder swine dealer license is $25, the renewal is $10, and there is a fee of $5 for each employee. There is no fee for a slaughter livestock buyer’s license, just a requirement to submit an annual report.

Industry Feedback

Both the Wisconsin Cattlemen’s Association (WCA) and WFBF have come out opposed to the fee increases.

Tressa Lacy, WCA president from Rio, Wis., voiced her concern at the first hearing on Sept. 11.

“The Wisconsin Cattlemen’s Association is in opposition to the proposed fee increases inspections and registrations related to a variety of activities by Wisconsin animal dealers, truckers and markets in ATCP 10 and 12,” she says. “I raise beef cattle with my husband and our 8-month-old in Columbia County. We both work off the farm in agriculture to financially afford our beef and hay farm operation, and I know the cost of these fees will be passed directly on to producers like us.

“The result of such significant increases will be fewer livestock marketing options, the potential for reduced disease traceability and fewer opportunities to sell livestock in the state of Wisconsin. Fewer options inevitably mean lower prices and thinner margins in an industry that is already being pushed on thin profit lines.”

She explains the inspections and animal health protections funded by these programs serve a broad public purpose — protecting animal health and consumer confidence in the meat raised in Wisconsin.

“It is fundamentally unfair to shift the entire cost onto the users as this is certainly a public food safety conversation,” Lacy adds. “I share the industry concern that these initial proposals are just the start of all programs in Wisconsin shifting to being user funded. Other states fund these programs with state support as the benefits are shared by everyone. DATCP should restore and continue the approach for these outlined programs.”

She concluded her comments saying: “WCA respectfully ask that DATCP reconsider these unreasonable fee increases and maintain a funding structure with state support that is fair, practical and supportive of both public health and Wisconsin agriculture.”

Mitch Giebel a WFBF member from Lyndon Station, Wis., also shared his thoughts on the proposed fee increases.

“I’m very concerned about the massive increases of fees being proposed,” he says. “As a young farmer, every dollar really does matter on our operation. We work hard to raise our livestock, and we already face high input costs, tight margins and unpredictability when it comes to marketing. Adding thousands of dollars in new fees, especially increases as massive as what is proposed doesn’t seem realistic. It’ll undoubtedly make it harder and tighter for the sale barns and livestock markets to survive, and unavoidably, it is probably going to be passed to us as the producers and farmers.”

He also explains programs such as animal health, disease control and traceability benefit everybody in the state, not just farmers.

“Healthy animals and safe food are the best interest for our state; other states recognize that and utilize state funding to maintain these programs and cover these costs,” he says. “Wisconsin needs to restore and maintain its state funding that has historically existed for these programs, rather than shifting a substantial burden on a small number of farmers and marketers. I am asking you to please reject these fee increases as they are written. They are too steep, too fast and out of line with our neighboring states.”

WFBF is calling on producers to share their concerns: “These unprecedented fee increases cannot move forward without your voice being heard. Share how these proposals would impact your farm, your business and Wisconsin agriculture.”

Rust in the Ration: How to Combat Southern Rust’s Impact on Corn Silage

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:04:48 GMT

With the warm and wet conditions this season, southern rust is on the rise in Midwest corn crops. It may be time to start considering the impact that could have on corn silage and preparing to adjust rations accordingly. While southern rust is not a direct threat to herd health, it has been shown to lower the nutritional value of silage and can compromise feed quality.

Southern rust, a fast-developing fungal disease caused by Puccinia polysora, does not itself produce toxins, but it weakens the plant and provides the opportunity for other diseases to move in. These opportunists include various Furasium species, which produce mycotoxins (fumonisin and deoxynivalenol) that can be harmful in feed.

Southern Rust and Corn Silage Quality

Southern rust is known to impact corn silage quality. A study from the University of Florida showed increasing rust infestation resulted in increased dry matter and fiber fractions, but that dry matter digestibility decreased by 13%. Further, high rust silages had lower neutral detergent fiber digestibilities than medium and no rust silages. Southern rust also affected the concentrations of lactate and volatile fatty acids, causing both to decrease with increasing infestation. These results indicate decreased nutritive value.

The observed increased dry matter also reduced silo packing effectiveness. If moisture levels are too low at harvest, it is difficult to achieve adequate packing, which leads to poor fermentation and an increased risk of mold growth.

Because southern rust coverage reduces the photosynthetic area of the leaf, grain fill is often hindered, leading to a lower energy and protein content in the silage.

Southern Rust Silage Management

There are a handful of strategies producers can apply to counteract the effects of southern rust:

Adjust harvest time based on moisture content. Southern rust can cause corn to dry down faster than normal. Monitor moisture levels closely to ensure the proper fermentation of silage.
Consider a silage inoculant. Inoculants improve fermentation, and the rapid pH drop can inhibit mold and yeast growth.
Ensure good packing and storage. Pack silage well to limit oxygen exposure and prevent mold growth. Cover bunkers immediately and weigh down coverings thoroughly.

Feeding Southern Rust Silage

To counter the nutritional challenges of feeding southern rust-infected corn silage, dietary supplementation may be necessary.

Prior to inclusion, test all potentially infected silage for mycotoxins. This will allow you to determine the safety of the feed and avoid potential health issues. If mycotoxins are high, the incorporation of a mycotoxin binding agent into the ration will help reduce toxin absorption in the animal’s digestive tract. Additionally, supplementation with antioxidants, such as vitamin E and selenium, could help animals by countering oxidative stress caused by mycotoxins and supporting immune function.

If grain fill was affected and starch levels are low, you may need to incorporate an additional energy course to compensate. Further, poor grain fill could reduce the already low protein content of corn silage, and protein supplementation may be required.

When incorporating infected silage, ensure it is thoroughly mixed into the TMR to dilute potential ‘hot spots’. Inclusion levels of contaminated silage in the feed may need to be limited or removed entirely for sensitive animals, including lactating or breeding animals. Livestock should be monitored closely for symptoms of mycotoxin toxicity, such as reduced intake, weight loss, digestive issues or reproductive challenges. Be prepared to respond if issues arise.

When feeding corn silage infected with southern rust, caution is essential to protect livestock health and performance. The thoughtful use of compromised silage can help minimize risk while maintaining efficiency and animal well-being.

Your next read: Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Success From The Start: Calf Health Starts Before Birth

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:11:35 GMT

If a calf struggles during its first 60 days of life, it’s going to carry that through all phases of production. Starting a calf, whether in a traditional beef or beef-on-dairy scenario, the right way is paramount to the lifetime health of that animal.

This is the message stressed by Dr. Taylor Engle, Four Star Veterinary Services, during episode eight of “ The Future of Beef Show ” podcast. He says success starts before a calf is born.

“There are a lot of really good genetics in the beef industry we can use. However, if you put that calf in an environment to fail, genetics does not play a factor,” he says. “We have to do everything right from an environmental piece to maximize the genetic potential.”

Check out the podcast to learn more about these five key messages discussed by Engle and the podcast’s hosts:

Environment matters more than genetics. Engle emphasizes if you put a calf in an environment to fail, genetics won’t save it. Management and early life conditions are critical to an animal’s success.
Calf health starts before birth. Proper care of the cow before calving, quality colostrum and a clean birthing environment are crucial for a calf’s lifetime health.

Engle encourages producers to think about the cow’s condition before, during and after breeding.

“Everyone gets really fired up — and rightfully so — about colostrum. Not all colostrum is created equal,” he says. “It’s what we are doing to set that cow up to have the best colostrum for that calf. Whether it’s beef-on-dairy or native, the right vaccines for the right diseases at the right time matters.”
Communication is key across the production chain. Sharing information about calf health, vaccination history and management practices between different stages of production can significantly improve overall animal performance.

Engle encourages producers to record vaccination and treatment information and then share it. Communicating with the feedyard is important to help the feeder decide on how to treat cattle.
Don’t be quick to treat — understand the root cause. Instead of immediately administering antibiotics, veterinarians should first investigate the underlying management or environmental issues causing health problems.

“We were trained to think it’s a disease, and more often times than not, there is a disease present. But there’s been something along the process where we have stressed that animal and caused disease,” he explains. “We’re always looking at it from an environmental standpoint and a management standpoint — the calf isn’t the culprit. What’s going on? Why did that calf break with respiratory disease? They don’t spontaneously get sick. Something happened. Was it a weather, feed or stressful event?”

He adds management strategies and mentality can be keys to determining the cause of a sickness.

“It’s a hard thing — whether you’re a nutritionist or vet — to have that hard conversation with a producer, be upfront with them and say, ‘It’s something we’ve done,’” he says. “A lot of times, there’s management practices that messed up along the way, and the result is a disease.”

In his practice, he works with the producer to help them understand and recognize the management strategies to improve the outcomes.

“In the beef industry, a lot of the mentality is, ‘We’ve never done it this way,’” he says.
“In comparison, in the poultry and pig industries, producers will say, ‘If it increases my production, I’ll do it.’ They have the mentality of being willing to give something a try to see if it increases health.”

Engle adds, “I always tell producers if you want A results, you got to give A effort,” he explains. “You can’t have a C -plus effort and expect A results.”
Stress management is more important than treatment protocols. Focus on reducing stress and creating optimal conditions for calves, rather than relying solely on medical interventions.

“The calves don’t lie,” Engle says.

He emphasizes the importance of careful observation, advising producers to “read calves every day” and make real-time adjustments.

Beef-on-Dairy Calf Health
Engle also has extensive experience with beef-on-dairy calf management and production and discussed how those animals compare to traditional beef calves, highlighting how multiple touch points and movements bring beef-on-dairy calves unique challenges — including different feeding systems and varied vaccine and management protocols at each location.

As a positive, he says, “In the beef-on-dairy space, we have all the data points, or we have the opportunity to collect all the data points. Then you can start making decisions.”

With this complex — but data-rich — production model, there is significant potential for improving calf health and performance.

Engle challenges producers to think holistically about animal health, management and production.

“It’s not the animal that’s usually causing the problems,” he says in summary. “It’s usually producer’s management or oversight. As farms have gotten bigger, the skill gap as we go higher actually closes. Everybody who has 10,000-head of cattle on feed, or more, probably knows a lot about feeding cattle. But what are you going to do for a competitive advantage that the next feedyard isn’t? I think a lot of that’s looking internally at your management strategies and your consulting team. It’s a team effort to get to where you want to be. Set those goals and look at what you need to do better to be where you want to be in the next five to 10 years.”

Be Aware: Dangerous Asian Longhorned Tick Continues Migrating West

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:42:45 GMT

The Asian Longhorned Tick (ALHT) poses a serious threat to cattle health. ALHTs carry Theileria, which is a protozoan parasite that infects red and white blood cells. It can lead to anemia and, in some cases, death.

ALHTs are native to eastern Asia, eastern China, Japan, the Russian Far East and Korea but were introduced to Australia, New Zealand and western Pacific Islands. In other countries, it can also be called a bush tick, cattle tick or scrub tick.

In the U.S., ALHT was first detected in New Jersey in 2017. Since then, it has spread to more than 20 states with recent confirmations in Illinois , Michigan and Iowa .

According to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) ALHTs are known to carry pathogens, which can cause disease and may also cause distress to the host from their feeding in large numbers. For example, a dairy cow may have a 25% decrease in milk production after becoming a host.

A female can reproduce without a mate and lay up to 2,000 eggs at a time. This can cause great stress on a heavily infested animal and result in reduced growth and production. A severe infestation can kill the animal from excessive blood loss.

Asian longhorned tick life stages and relative actual size.

(Photos of unfed ticks by Centers for Disease Control. Photos of engorged ticks by Jim Occi, Rutgers, Center for Vector Biology.)

What does it look like?

Unfed ALHTs range from a light reddish-tan to a dark red with brown, dark markings. While the adult female grows to the size of a pea when full of blood, other stages of the tick are very small — about the size of a sesame seed.

Adult females are a grey-green with yellowish markings. Male ticks are rare.

APHIS reports it only takes a single tick to create a population in a new location.

The above photos are of a AHLT engorged (on the left) and an adult AHLT not engorged.

(New Jersey Department of Agriculture)

ALHTs need warm-blooded hosts to feed and survive. They have been found on various species of domestic animals — such as sheep, goats, dogs, cats, horses, cattle and chickens — and wildlife. The tick has also been found on people.

What are the health risks?

APHIS says ALHTs are not known to carry Lyme disease, but they can cause tickborne diseases affecting humans and animals such as:

Rocky Mountain spotted fever
Heartland virus
Powassan virus

APHIS says those diseases have not been confirmed outside of a laboratory setting in the U.S. In addition, U.S. ALHT populations can transmit U.S. Theileria orientalis Ikeda strain (Cattle theileriosis) in the laboratory.

In an Iowa State University release , Grant Dewell, Extension beef veterinarian and associate professor, says cattle affected by Theileriosis will show signs of lethargy, anemia and difficulty breathing. They may develop ventral edema, exercise intolerance, jaundice and abortions.

“Although signs of Theileriosis are similar to anaplasmosis, younger animals and calves often display more severe signs compared to mature cows and bulls,” he says. “Due to anemia from both tick infestation and Theileria, the risk of death can be elevated. If cattle producers suspect either Theileria or ALHT, have a veterinarian collect appropriate samples and submit them to a veterinary diagnostic lab.”

According to an Oklahoma State University press release , under laboratory conditions ALHT is a competent vector of numerous pathogens that can cause disease in humans, including Rickettsia rickettsii (Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever), Heartland Virus and Powassan Virus.

In “ Clinical Infectious Diseases, ” Bobbi Pritt, MD, MSC, with the division of clinical microbiology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., reported a human bite that occurred in New York in 2019. She says though the report of a human bite isn’t surprising, it proves the invasive longhorned tick continues to bite hosts in its newest location.

“This is extremely worrisome for several reasons,” she writes. “One reason is Asian longhorned ticks can carry several important human pathogens, including the potentially fatal severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) virus and Rickettsia japonica, which cases Japanese spotted fever. While these pathogens have yet to be found in the United States, there is a risk of their future introduction.”

Also, Pritt says several other human pathogens have been detected in the ticks, but it’s not clear if the ALHT species are able to transmit them to humans. They include Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Rickettsia, and Borrelia species. Lyme disease is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi bacteria.

She warns the organisms are present in states where ALHTs have been found and that it’s possible the tick — known to be an aggressive biter— might be able to transmit Heartland virus given its close relationship to SFTS virus.

How to Tackle Ticks

According to APHIS, various strategies effectively mitigate tick populations on hosts and in the environment.

Regular tick treatments should be effective against ALHTs. Consult your veterinarian or agriculture extension agent about which products to use.
Check your livestock for ticks regularly.
Safely remove ticks from people and pets as quickly as possible. If you think you’ve found an ALHT, seal it in a zip-top bag and give it to your veterinarian for identification.
Habitat modifications can help prevent ticks on feedlots and pastures. This may include mowing grass, removing trees, reducing shade by thinning trees, understory removal and placing mulch barriers.
Apply acaricide using label instructions to tick habitats, such as woodland edges and grassy patches, during times when ticks are most actively seeking hosts. Although it varies by year, ALHTs are generally active from March to November. Consult your state and local regulations for approved acaricides.

“Cattle producers should aggressively control external parasites this summer,” Dewell summarizes. “Insecticide ear tags alone are not enough to control ticks. Consider incorporating a back rubber or regularly applying a pour-on during the summer. Pyrethroid-based products are also available that include a tick control label. If an increase in tick infestations is observed, an avermectin pour-on may be the best intervention.”

Your Next Read: 1,500-lb. Carcasses the New Normal, Not the Exception

Buckle Up: Here's Why Cattle Prices Are Setting Up for Another Wild Ride in 2025

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 21:47:01 GMT

The cattle markets hit historic highs again to start 2025, and as USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory report showed U.S. beef cattle inventory fell to the lowest level in 64 years , tight supplies and strong demand could push cattle prices to even higher highs in 2025.

USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. total cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, with the number of beef cows also down 1%.

Those numbers, along with questions around just how much higher these markets can go, were major topics surrounding the 2025 CattleCon in San Antonio, Texas, (the annual cattle industry convention) this past week.

Signs of a Slowdown?
Economists and market analysts knew the cattle herd was still shrinking, even before the report was released last week. But economists say there are some signs starting to signal that is slowing down.

“We certainly got smaller in 2024. That was actually kind of obvious about a year ago when you looked at heifer numbers,” said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock specialist. “If you look at the heifer numbers in this report, we don’t have a lot. And so we’re going to be challenged going forward to stop this liquidation. I think we might stabilize numbers this year, but I think growth is pretty much a long shot at this point.”

“I think we’re getting close to the bottom, as Darrell referenced,” said Don Close, senior animal protein analyst for Terrain, during the U.S. Farm Report live taping at NCBA’s annual convention. “I think the challenge is retaining enough heifers out of the supply that we have to provide the fuel for the build back.”

Calf Crop Was a Big Surprise
Casey Mabry, with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, said there actually was a surprise in the latest cattle inventory report, and that wasn’t with heifer numbers.

“The biggest surprise to me was really looking at the total calf crop report, because we’re looking at the total cow inventory numbers. I think that probably caught some people off guard, having the calf crop a little bit bigger than what most people’s expectations were,” said Mabry.

Incentives Drive Outcome
With cash cattle hitting records to start 2025 a question on almost everyone’s mind is, can it continue? Mabry said it really depends on if demand can remain steady, since the supply side will remain tight.

“Incentives drive outcome and obviously with grain prices as cheap as they’ve been, and cattle prices as high as they’ve been, we’ve held on to some cattle. So it’s kept the front end of the market really, really tight and it’s kept packers chasing after cattle. So that ran the market $10 or $15 higher, in my opinion, than what we should have on the front end,” said Mabry. “So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch as we go through the back end of this thing. We’ve probably got to work through some stuff right here on the front end. But if the analysts continue to say we’re going to be tighter and demand stays pretty good, we’ll probably see prices exceed where we were before.”

“We’re Still Bullish”
Peel reminds producers there’s a great deal of risk in these markets. He said the markets don’t like uncertainty. With trade concerns and tariff threats, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, the combination is throwing uncertainty into the market.

“We’re very bullish and still bullish in general going forward for average prices,” said Peel. “But we also know that we’re subject to a lot of shocks right now. We’ve seen a couple already. We’re certainly vulnerable. There’s a lot of air below us since this market is so high. So producers really need to still do that risk management. Producers need to think about those marketing windows. If you got caught in a shock in one of those, it could really be devastating to you.”

Close has similar advice. He said with the development of insurance products, plus futures and options contracting, there are several ways for producers to manage risk today.

“At the price level we’re at, and just any measured retracement in the market, it could take you out of the game. At these price levels, it is absolutely imperative to have some kind of price risk management program in place,” said Close.

“I think you just need to run with what I call a keen sense of paranoia,” said Mabry. “I mean, be bullish, be excited about the market, but don’t get overly euphoric. We’ve got to remember back a short three or four years ago, we were all in the doldrums and very scared. And there’s a lot of people that were telling their kids to get into a different business. And now all of a sudden, we’re all jumping on the bandwagon of cattle and getting excited about this. So, we want to make sure that you guys are running your businesses like businesses and not gambling on cattle.”

Your Next Read:

Are More Record Cattle Prices Ahead in 2025?

U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory Falls to the Lowest Level in 64 Years

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 21:09:20 GMT

Shrinking cattle supplies continues to be the story in the cattle market and part of the reason cattle prices continue to climb. USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, now at 86.7 million head. And when you look at just the number of beef cows, that inventory fell 1%, now sitting at 27.9 million head.

Other highlights in the January Cattle report include:

Of the 86.7 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased slightly to 9.35 million.
U.S. calf crop was estimated at 33.5 million head, down slightly from previous year.
USDA NASS says the number of cattle on feed were at 14.3 million head, down 1% from 2024

All 👀 were on the January #cattle report today. Here's a look at the #beef cattle inventory over the last 65 years 🥩 . 🇺🇸 Jan inventory was the lowest since 1961 👇👇. At @TerrainAg we have amazing protein economists on the team to help #FarmCredit customers, see their work… pic.twitter.com/weg8KrjcbW
— John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) January 31, 2025

“The big takeaway as we see it was the notable upward revision of last year’s numbers, and we expected that. The past year’s kills have simply been larger than implied by last year’s survey. I think most in the market anticipated that. Not sure if the Algo traders had,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Group.

“Everything looks pretty in line until you get to that beef replacement heifer number, and I feel like that’s kind of a little bit of a surprise as we’ve been talking about heifer retention,” Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, Sioux Center, Iowa told AgDay’s Michelle Rook. “We’re thinking it’s happening and the last cattle on feed report showed a few less heifers on feed but with a 101 % estimate coming in at 99% we’re still off of year ago levels and still not seeing that rebuild in the cow herd.”

Last year’s USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest cattle herd in 73 years . And with no strong signs of rebuilding underway, along with strong prices providing no incentive to retain heifers, agricultural economists expected U.S. cattle inventory to shrink even more since last year, which is exactly what USDA revealed on Friday.

“The next takeaway is that we have not started rebuilding the breeding herd. As such, perhaps we have a little higher numbers over the next half year or so, but then things get tighter, and more significantly tighter once we actually do start holding back heifers,” says Suderman.

Higher Highs?

Cattle prices continued to hit records this week. And with no signs of those record prices slowing down, it’s a question of how high these prices will actually go.

According to AgDay’s Michelle Rook, the cattle market continues to smash new records in both the futures market and in cash cattle trade. She reported a strong fed cash cattle market, combined with the border still being closed to Mexican feeder imports has also pushed both live and cattle futures to all-time highs.

Is there any sign of a slowdown in the market, or is a top close? Suderman says fundamentally, the signs show supplies are tight, but the demand piece is a concern.

“Unfortunately, those signs usually come after the top has traded, which is why so many feeders are so nervous,” he says. “Fundamentally, things will still get tighter. But it still comes to the consumer. Consumer confidence pulled back in January, which is a red flag. Headlines are filled with scary scenarios that a trade war over tariffs could bring, which tends to further reduce consumer confidence. That doesn’t bode well for the consumer paying up for the higher cuts of meat at these price levels.”

What Will It Take for Producers to Start to Rebuild?
What would change a producer’s minds and give them confidence to grow their herds again? That’s exactly what we asked in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is an anonymous survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country. While some said it will just take time, others pointed to the economics of strong cow-calf returns, weaker fed cattle prices and lower prices at the sale barn.

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Other economists said:

“Today’s high prices are certainly incentive, along with the expectation of moderate feed costs.”
“Government policies, global demand, price cycle”
“Better spring forage supplies could be the most important factor in growth. More quality labor could be critical, too.”
“Confidence that the general economy outlook is positive and that there are unlikely to be negative policy shocks. And, of course, there has to be adequate forage.”
“Improved weather pattern in the West, along with profitable margins.”

Data Shows Larger Hay Supply and Lower Hay Prices

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 15:20:52 GMT

Larger May 1 stocks and increased year over year hay production led to larger hay supplies in 2024 (Figure 1). Total hay production in 2024 was up 3.3 percent year over year and combined with May 1 hay stocks up 46.6 percent over 2023 levels to increase the total hay supply by 7.9 percent compared to year earlier levels. The total hay supply was 1.7 percent below the ten-year average supply from 2014-2023.

(Peel)

Total hay production includes total alfalfa hay production, almost unchanged from 2023 levels and 8.4 percent below the ten-year average as well as total other hay production, up 5.5 percent year over year and 0.6 percent above the 2014-2023 average.

Coming into winter 2024/2025, Dec. 1 hay stocks were up 6.3 percent year over year, though still down 3.2 percent from the ten-year average. Hay supplies have recovered from the drought-reduced levels of 2022-2023 (Figure 1) and, as a result, hay prices have dropped from record levels (Figure 2).

(Peel)

Table 1 shows the top ten state rankings for December 1 Stocks; All Hay Production: Alfalfa Hay Production and Other Hay Production and highlights the considerable regional variation in hay production and stocks. Texas is the largest hay producer, mostly other hay, with production and Dec. 1 stocks well above average.

Alfalfa hay production was down compared to the ten-year average in some important dairy production states (California and Idaho) as well as in some mostly beef cow states (Montana and South Dakota) that depend on alfalfa hay (Table 1).

(Peel)

In many states, increased hay supplies are providing more management flexibility for cattle producers and lower hay costs are reducing annual cost of production somewhat. However, among major beef cow states, Florida, Kansas, Montana, and North Dakota, 2024 Dec. 1 hay stocks are down year over year and below the ten-year average.

Your next read: Future Proof Your Cattle Management

Study Confirms Facial Recognition Technology’s Success in Disease Prediction

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 18:14:04 GMT

A collaborative study between animal agtech startup MyAnIML and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) successfully corroborated the technology’s predictive ability to proactively manage devastating disease outbreaks in cattle production.

MyAnIML used proprietary facial recognition and deep learning technology to accurately predict Infectious Bovine Keratoconjunctivitis (IBK), or bovine pinkeye, 99.4% of the time and several days before veterinarians were able to detect symptoms, according to published study results .

USDA Agricultural Research Service scientists Mike Clawson and Larry Kuehn, who have researched IBK for years at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center, shared their expertise on the project.

“Early detection of disease is critical to healthy herd management – giving producers the chance to separate sick animals, control spread and judiciously use antibiotics before a large outbreak occurs,” said Mike Clawson, an USDA Agricultural Research Service molecular biologist and project researcher.

“The results of the MyAnIML study demonstrate how far and how impactful AI-powered technology can be toward ensuring a safe, resilient and sustainable U.S. food supply chain.”

The MyAnIML and USDA study included 870 beef cattle located on three different Kansas ranches during the summers of 2021 and 2022. Bovine pinkeye is highly contagious and the most common ocular disease of cattle globally, costing U.S. producers alone an estimated $150 million annually in lost performance and treatment costs. There are no effective vaccines for IBK, forcing producers to treat infected animals with antibiotics, thereby elevating the risk of developing antibiotic-resistance bacteria strains that threaten human health.

Building off this collaboration, MyAnIML and USDA are applying the technology next to predict Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD). As the single most economically impactful cattle disease, BRD costs the U.S. feedlot industry potentially more than $900 million annually, according to the American Society of Animal Science.

“Building off our AI platform’s ability to distinguish between ‘healthy’ and ‘sick’ cattle two to three days before symptoms were diagnosed, the next step is expanding MyAnIML’s repertoire of diseases and health events to offer producers new tools to ensure a safe food supply,” said Shekhar Gupta, MyAnIML CEO and founder.

MyAnIML’s patent-pending technology platform uses AI, facial recognition and inexpensive GoPro cameras to automatically capture and analyze subtle changes in a cow’s muzzle.

Like a human fingerprint, each cattle muzzle is unique, and can be used to track specific cows. However, MyAnIML, is the first to use muzzle dermatoglyphics to not only identify cows, but as a health predictor of diseases such as BRD, IBK, foot root and uterine infections, proving that subtle changes in the bumps and ridges on a cow muzzle are a precursor of a health event.

MyAnIML’s trial partners have also successfully used the technology to monitor the health status of cows going into estrus, early stages of labor and even subtle health stressors, like the need for more nutrition while nursing calves.

“The muzzle is an incredible mirror into cattle health and well-being. Humans just didn’t have the ability to ‘see’ what the muzzle was telling us without the help of MyAnIML’s advanced AI and facial recognition technology,” Gupta said.

Since its founding in 2021, MyAniML has:

● Developed a proprietary dataset of 3000 muzzle images of beef cattle, the first cattle facial and muzzle image library for health management.

● Partnered in trial projects with multiple Midwest cattle production facilities.

● Released an inexpensive Bluetooth-enabled “smart” ear tag and app that helps large-scale commercial feedlots and stockyards quickly locate potentially sick animals identified by the MyAnIML predictive platform.

● Signed a partnership agreement with DairyFI, an India-based startup, in January. With 308 million cows, India has the largest cattle herd in the world, but suffers from lack of adequate cattle health services, greatly reducing the economic and productivity potential of India’s cattle industry.

With positive results from the collaboration, large-scale trials, veterinarian feedback and ongoing product development, MyAnIML is getting ready for broad-scale commercialization. The company received angel investment funding in 2021 and is currently in the process of a seed funding investment round to expand its technology in cattle, as well as to include other livestock and companion animals.

About MyAnIML

MyAnIML invented and is commercializing the first-of-its-kind platform for early disease prediction in cattle using facial recognition technology focused on a cow’s muzzle. The initial discovery is the product of intense curiosity and a sense of purpose by the founder, a leading expert in generative AI and emerging uses of web-based blockchain technology. MyAnIML’s mission is to help ensure the health and well-being of cattle while ensuring an affordable and safe food supply. For more information www.myaniml.com

Inaction on Traceability is Unacceptable

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 20:38:00 GMT

The future of the U.S. cattle industry hinges on our ability to swiftly respond to disease outbreaks. Yet, some groups and individuals continue to fight the tools that could protect our livelihoods. The most recent rule to come under fire is USDA’s animal disease traceability regulation.

In the face of a potential FMD outbreak, every minute counts. The choice between outdated methods and advanced technology could mean the difference between a controlled situation and a nationwide catastrophe. Imagine the chaos of an FMD outbreak, with markets shuttered, and producers frantically searching for nearly illegible metal bright tags in the pouring rain. This is not a future we can afford. Some argue that these changes are unnecessary or burdensome, the reality is that clinging to outdated ideas, practices and technology puts our entire industry at risk.

USDA’s new rules call for the use of an electronic identification (EID) tag in breeding cattle, 18 months of age and older, being transported across state lines. This class of cattle has required an ID tag for more than a decade. USDA is simply changing the technology from a metal bright tag to an updated EID tag.

Innovation has always been the backbone of American agriculture. The use of EID tag technology is not just a step forward; it’s a necessity for an industry that must be prepared for anything in a time of porous borders and uncertain global politics. USDA’s rule will allow cattle to be tracked more quickly in the event of foot and mouth disease (FMD) or similar emergency, when time is critical. We all know that the metal clips in the ears of cattle are nearly impossible to read after a year or two. We also know that reading them, writing down the information from the tag and transferring it to a database is slow, cumbersome and subject to human error. These issues can be alleviated by simply running a wand over an EID tag, making traceability faster and less error prone.

There are still issues and concerns with USDA’s effort to upgrade technology. One of the issues that must be addressed is how data is gathered and stored. Producer privacy is paramount to this effort. NCBA has long advocated for tag data to be held by private, third-party companies, like CattleTrace, rather than USDA. A third-party holder of information helps protect producer privacy while also allowing the rapid traceback required in the event of a disease outbreak. Cost is the other factor that NCBA has worked to alleviate. To help lower the costs of USDA’s rule, NCBA was able to secure $15 million in funding for the purchase of EID tags, to ensure that cattle producers aren’t saddled with added compliance costs.

None of us in the agricultural community desire more government intrusion in our businesses or our lives. NCBA has stood on the front lines fighting, and might I say winning, many of those issues for decades. We have always stood for industry solutions to industry problems and worked to be proactive in creating those solutions. Those whose only answer is “no,” and those individuals and groups who would allow perfect to be the enemy of good, have created a vacuum that the government is more than happy to fill. It is past time for us, as cattle producers, to create an industry-led and industry-controlled solution to disease traceability. Our current system and the ability to rapidly respond to a real disease outbreak is insufficient to protect each of us and our livelihoods. Now is the time for the cattle industry to lead, not lag.

Purina Animal Nutrition Releases Comprehensive Beef-on-Dairy Industry Report

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 18:04:40 GMT

Purina Animal Nutrition has announced the release of its Beef-on-Dairy Industry Report, a collaborative effort featuring beef-on-dairy research, contributions from industry-leading experts and actionable insights for improving beef-on-dairy programs.

This comprehensive report is tailored to help producers make informed decisions, offering valuable information about genetic selection, management practices, nutrition strategies and market dynamics associated with beef-on-dairy production.

Contributing to this in-depth analysis are Dr. Kirsten Nickles of Certified Angus Beef; Dr. Sara Place of AgNext at Colorado State University; Dr. Robert Weaber of Kansas State University; Dr. Dale Woerner of Texas Tech University; along with Purina Animal Nutrition experts Dr. Troy Wistuba, Dr. Olivia Genther-Schroeder and Ted Perry, M.S.

“We are seeing calf prices like we have never seen before with day-old calves bringing nearly $900. This opens doors of opportunity for producers to maximize their profit potential and meet the rising demand for high-quality beef,” says Laurence Williams, dairy beef cross development for Purina Animal Nutrition. “By partnering with these industry leaders, we aim to foster collaboration across the supply chain and provide resources to dairy producers and cattle ranchers that help drive success for their beef-on-dairy programs.”

The Beef-on-Dairy Industry Report can be downloaded at purinamills.com/dairy-beef .

APHIS To Require Electronic Animal ID for Certain Cattle and Bison

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 18:29:58 GMT

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has taken another step toward limiting the impact of an outbreak of foreign animal diseases by amending and strengthening its animal disease traceability regulations for certain cattle and bison. By requiring electronic animal identification for certain cattle and bison, APHIS put into place the technology, tools and processes to help industry stakeholders quickly pinpoint and respond to a foreign animal disease outbreak.

“Rapid traceability in a disease outbreak will not only limit how long farms are quarantined, keep more animals from getting sick, and help ranchers and farmers get back to selling their products more quickly – but will help keep our markets open,” said Dr. Michael Watson, APHIS administrator.

APHIS said one to the rule’s most significant benefits for farmers and ranchers will be the enhanced ability of the United States to limit impacts of animal disease outbreaks to certain regions, which the agency called a “key to maintaining our foreign markets. By being able to readily prove disease-free status in non-affected regions of the United States, we will be able to request foreign trading partners recognize disease-free regions or zones instead of cutting off trade for the entire country. Traceability of animals is necessary to establish these disease-free zones and facilitate reestablishment of foreign and domestic market access with minimum delay in the wake of an animal disease event.”

The April announcement enhances a rule finalized in 2013 for the official identification of livestock and documentation for certain interstate movements of livestock.

The final rule applies to all sexually intact cattle and bison 18 months of age or older, all dairy cattle, cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo or recreation events, and cattle or bison of any age used for shows or exhibitions.

The rule requires official eartags to be visually and electronically readable for official use for interstate movement of certain cattle and bison, and revises and clarifies certain record requirements related to cattle.

“USDA’s final traceability rule updates the existing requirement for animal identification that has been in place since 2013, switching from solely visual tags to tags that are both electronically and visually readable for certain classes of cattle moving interstate,” said National Cattlemen’s Beef Association president Mark Eisele, a Wyoming rancher.

“Many producers are already familiar with using these visual tags and under the new rule, they will instead use electronic tags. NCBA has worked hard to secure $15 million in funding for producers to reduce the cost of implementing this change. We also remain committed to safeguarding producers’ private data and continuing to reduce the cost of ear tags for farmers and ranchers. Our industry faces a tremendous threat from the risk of a future foreign animal disease on American soil. To avoid devastating financial losses during a potential outbreak and to help producers quickly return to commerce, we need an efficient animal disease traceability system.”

USDA said it is committed to implementing a modern animal disease traceability system that tracks animals from birth to slaughter using affordable technology that allows for quick tracing of sick and exposed animals to stop disease spread. USDA will continue to provide tags to producers free of charge to jumpstart efforts to enable the fastest possible response to a foreign animal disease.

To obtain electronic ID tags at no cost, APHIS directs producers to contact their State Veterinarian.

A copy of this rule may be viewed at the APHIS website, and the rule will be published in the Federal Register in the coming weeks. This rule will be effective 180 days after publication in the Federal Register.

To learn more about animal disease traceability and how APHIS responds to animal disease outbreaks, visit www.aphis.usda.gov.

Speer: Day-Old Calves Cost How Much…?

Sat, 21 Oct 2023 21:50:58 GMT

“Holy Buckets!”: There’s seemingly always an exclamation of surprise when discussing current prices for day-old beef-X-dairy (BXD) calves with producers. And that’s generally followed with skepticism: “Are you sure?”

But maybe it makes more sense than we think. Let’s approach it from a cow/calf perspective to discern the value of day-old calf at the farm or ranch (versus the dairy).

Cow Cost: The obvious place to begin is allocation of cow costs. Outlined below are some basic assumptions:

The cost meter starts clicking once the previous calf is weaned – call that day 205. Even if the cow was NOT pregnant at weaning, maintenance cost up to weaning would still be assigned to the weaned calf. That leaves us 160 days of pregnancy from weaning to calving assigned to the newborn calf.
Assume annual $1100/cow maintenance cost – or roughly $3/day.

Total assigned cost = $480/calf

Bull Cost: This gets somewhat trickier with more room for varied assumptions. Depending on an operation’s individual budgeting, the cost may be absorbed by the annual cow cost as outlined above. However, given we’re not detailing the full year for the cow, it’s appropriate to include this as a separate item.

Keeping it straightforward, assume a bull’s net service cost is $3,000 over his lifetime (purchase less salvage value). On average (key emphasis), his useful life will be three years. (Some bulls work much longer but others fail to ever service a cow.). Last, we’ll suppose he sires 25 calves per year. That works out to ~$40/calf.
Conservatively assume it costs roughly $1250 annually to maintain a bull – that equates to $50/calf.

Total assigned cost = $90/calf

Interest: The current median interest rate on operating notes is roughly 8.5% . We’ll assign that rate for 160 days on the cow side and a full year on the bull side. That works out to roughly $18 plus $8, respectively.

Total assigned cost = $26/calf

Death Loss: Based on historical USDA survey data , assume 3% of calves will be lost due to dystocia and/or other causes. Another 4% are born alive but die prior to weaning. Assigning one-fourth of those post-calving losses equals 1%. Therefore, we’re left with a 96% survival rate ready for sale. That adds an additional $25/head to the cost.

Total assigned cost = $25/calf

Total Direct Costs: Based on averages, IF someone wanted to purchase day-old calves from your farm or ranch, you’d require total direct cost just to breakeven. We can fuss with the numbers here-and-there but it provides a ball-park figure of the cost assigned to every calf.

Total direct cost: $621/calf

Intangibles: But we need to stretch beyond just those considerations. IF the following things were to occur, you’d require even more dollars to ensure you’re adequately compensated for your management:

Cows bred to known sires with propensity for superior feedlot and carcass performance;
Ensure each calf receives colostrum AND has its navel dipped;
Individually identify every calf with an eID;
Ranch provides ready access to comprehensive data management system enabling potential access to sire and dam (and other pertinent) information to buyer;
Provide easily-accessible facilities to pick calves up with minimal hassle;
Facilitate steady, reliable source of calves year-around.

All of those items provide added value to the buyer. As a producer, you’d accordingly want to be rewarded for such. Not to mention, there needs to be some consideration for profit in all of this.

Total Assigned Cost = +$10, +$25, +$50, +More???

Bottomline: Markets are amazingly efficient. The end result is uncanny; the numbers are remarkably similar to current prices for day-old calves (i.e. sizeable quantity of high-quality, well-managed calves). And from that perspective, the two sides of the business (beef versus dairy) really aren’t all that different. I noted in a previous column that, “What used to be considered a highly discounted after-thought (straight dairy steers/heifers) is rapidly transforming into a meaningful source of production (BXD steers).” With all that in mind, perhaps the day-old BXD market really isn’t as far off-base as we might have first thought.

New Custom Rates For Livestock Services Published

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 20:34:35 GMT

Nebraska cattlemen should expect to pay an average of $9.50 per ton for custom harvesting and hauling of corn silage this fall, according to a new report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Center for Agricultural Profitability. Harvesting, hauling, filling and packing corn silage was found to have a custom rate of $13.58 per ton.

Current rates for custom services related to livestock production in Nebraska are the result of a statewide survey circulated to custom operators and clients in early 2023. The livestock-specific survey reports rates for 53 custom services based on responses from 91 custom operators and clients.

This is the first such livestock-specific report conducted by the Center for Agricultural Profitability, which is a companion to the biennial Nebraska Farm Custom Rates Survey Report that features more detailed information about custom service rates related to cropping operations and is typically published in even-numbered years.

A webinar covering the new livestock-related report will be held at noon Central Time on Thursday, Aug. 3. Registration is available at go.unl.edu/cap8-3 .

Among the various custom rates, for instance, swathing hay with crushing/crimping saw an average price of $143.50 per hour reported by 12 respondents, with the most common price as $150 per hour. The same task saw an average price of $16.23 per acre by 31 respondents, with the most common price of $15 per acre.

Glennis McClure, Nebraska Extension educator and farm and ranch management analyst, leads the survey and publication efforts for both reports. She noted that information reported in both publications is intended as a guide when calculating what to charge or pay for custom operations and that actual rates may vary from those listed in the survey due to differences in the operators responding and those providing services across the state.

Baling large round bales was quoted at $14.46 per bale without net wrap, according to 12 responses. Baling large round bales with net wrap was quoted at $15.32 per bale by 44 respondents.

The report quoted six respondents with an average price of $105.83 per acre for clearing cedar trees, and the most common price was $125 per acre.

The full report can be found here .

Gene-Editing Technology Produces First Calf Resistant to BVDV

Tue, 09 May 2023 20:23:56 GMT

Scientists have collaborated to produce the first gene-edited calf with resistance to bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), a virus that costs the U.S. cattle sector billions of dollars annually.

The recent study published in PNAS Nexus results from a collaboration between the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS), the University of Nebraska–Lincoln (UNL), the University of Kentucky, and industry partners, Acceligen and Recombinetics, Inc.

BVDV is one of the most significant viruses affecting the health and well-being of cattle worldwide, and researchers have been studying it since the 1940s when it was first recognized. This virus does not affect humans but is highly contagious among cattle and can cause severe respiratory and intestinal diseases.

BVDV can be disastrous to pregnant cows because it can infect developing calves, causing spontaneous abortions and low birth rates. Some infected calves survive to birth and remain infected for life, shedding massive amounts of virus to other cattle. Despite more than 50 years of vaccine availability, controlling BVDV disease remains a problem since vaccines are not always effective in stopping transmission.

However, over the past 20 years, the scientific community discovered the main cellular receptor (CD46) and the area where the virus binds to that receptor, causing infection in cows. Scientists modified the virus binding site in this recent study to block infection.

Aspen Workman , lead author and researcher at ARS’ U.S. Meat Animal Research Center (USMARC) in Clay Center, Nebraska, said, “Our objective was to use gene-editing technology to slightly alter CD46 so it wouldn’t bind the virus yet would retain all its normal bovine functions.”

The scientists first tested this idea in cell culture. After seeing promising outcomes in the laboratory, Acceligen edited cattle skin cells to develop embryos carrying the altered gene. These embryos were transplanted into surrogate cows to test whether this approach might also reduce virus infection in live animals.

It worked, and the first CD46 gene-edited calf, named Ginger, was born healthy on July 19, 2021. The calf was observed for several months and then later challenged with the virus to determine if she could become infected. She was housed for a week with a BVDV-infected dairy calf that was born shedding virus. Ginger’s cells displayed significantly reduced susceptibility to BVDV, which resulted in no observable adverse health effects.

The scientists will continue to closely observe Ginger’s health and ability to produce and raise her own calves.

This proof-of-concept study demonstrates the possibility of reducing the burden of BVDV-associated diseases in cattle by gene editing. The edited calf also represents another potential opportunity to lessen the need for antibiotics in agriculture since BVDV infection also puts calves at risk for secondary bacterial diseases. This promising trait is still in the research phase and no associated beef is entering the U.S. food supply at this time.

The Agricultural Research Service is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s chief scientific in-house research agency. Daily, ARS focuses on solutions to agricultural problems affecting America. Each dollar invested in U.S. agricultural research results in $20 of economic impact.

Here’s Why Cows Produce Less Colostrum During the Fall and Winter

Wed, 04 Jan 2023 21:15:09 GMT

When a cow freshens during the fall or winter, have you noticed that she tends to produce less colostrum than her herd mates who calved during the spring and summer? It’s not a coincidence, yet little is known as to why this phenomenon occurs. Recent research, however, is shedding a little more ‘light’ on the situation.

A study by Gavin and colleagues conducted on a Texas dairy herd evaluated the colostrum production and quality of 2,988 Jersey cows during a year to assess possible effects of photoperiod, temperature, and cow factors on colostrum production. The average colostrum production for the herd stood at 9.4 lb. with a range of 0 to 58.4 lb. produced.

The research team noted a considerable variation in colostrum production throughout the year, with average colostrum production of 14.5 lbs. in June, 5.5 lbs. in January, and 10.6 lbs. in May. They also observed that cows with more than one lactation had a more significant decline in colostrum production from June to December, on average, compared to first lactation heifers, with 35% of them producing no colostrum in December compared to 1% of the first lactation heifers.

It was discovered that an animal’s photoperiod, also known as the amount of time a cow receives light, was the main factor that affected colostrum production. They observed that longer sunlight duration 21 days before and at calving day strongly correlated with greater colostrum yield.

A similar study conducted in Michigan found corresponding results. The study, which was conducted by Rossi and co-authors, evaluated three commercial Michigan dairy farms. It was observed that the lowest colostrum yield was produced during winter (4.5 quarts) by cows milked within 6 hours after calving when compared to the other seasons (5.7, 6.2, 5.7 quarts of colostrum during spring, summer, and fall, respectively).

While there’s no known way to prevent this season depression in colostrum yield, there are tactics farmers can take to help combat it. Banking additional high-quality colostrum during the spring and summer months can help farmers get through periods of lower colostrum production, along with the use of colostrum replacement packets when necessary.

Cow-Calf News

Heavy Steers and Lean Cows: Drivers of the 2026 Ground Beef Market

The Blending Effect: Why 980-lb. Carcasses Need Lean Cows

Dairy Culling Shifts and the April Pullback

Retention vs. Liquidation: The Impact of Record Calf Values

Analyst Predicts Cull Cow Prices Will Remain Elevated

How Will U.S. Producers Maintain Business when New World Screwworm Invades?

Surveillance: Eyes on Animals

Treatment: Limited Tools, Use Strategically

Movement Controls: Targeted, Not Statewide Shutdowns

NWS is Not a Food Safety Issue

USDA Announces Sterile Fly Production Facility Construction Contract

Leadership Is Costing You More Than You Think

Zoetis to Acquire Neogen’s Animal Genomics Business

U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head

What Are the Big Takeaways from the USDA Report?

Why is the 2025 Calf Crop Significant?

Outlook: What Will Cattle and Beef Prices Do in 2026?

The “Historically Slow” Rebuild

What is the Take-Home Message for Producers?

Other January cattle report highlights include:

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Cull Cows Defy Seasonality

$4 Feeder Cattle: Dream or Reality?

When Will We Hit the High?

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor Predicts Bull Market to Continue

What Could End the Rally?

“Beef Prices Can Stay High Longer Than Most Expect”

How Beef and Dairy Genetics Are Smarter and More Profitable

Harness the Full Potential of Your BRD Vaccine with the Right Adjuvant

Maternal Antibodies Can Interfere with Vaccines

Adjuvants Are Critical to Capturing Immunity in Young Calves

Systemic Immunity Builds Long-Lasting Protection

Even the Best Vaccine Needs Correct Timing and Care

Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

Factors Affecting Herd Building

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Wisconsin Ag Regulators Propose Massive Livestock Fee Increases

The Process

Neighboring State Comparisons

Industry Feedback

Rust in the Ration: How to Combat Southern Rust’s Impact on Corn Silage

Southern Rust and Corn Silage Quality

Southern Rust Silage Management

Feeding Southern Rust Silage

Success From The Start: Calf Health Starts Before Birth

Be Aware: Dangerous Asian Longhorned Tick Continues Migrating West

What does it look like?

What are the health risks?

How to Tackle Ticks

Buckle Up: Here's Why Cattle Prices Are Setting Up for Another Wild Ride in 2025

U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory Falls to the Lowest Level in 64 Years

Data Shows Larger Hay Supply and Lower Hay Prices

Study Confirms Facial Recognition Technology’s Success in Disease Prediction

Inaction on Traceability is Unacceptable

Purina Animal Nutrition Releases Comprehensive Beef-on-Dairy Industry Report

APHIS To Require Electronic Animal ID for Certain Cattle and Bison

Speer: Day-Old Calves Cost How Much…?

New Custom Rates For Livestock Services Published

Gene-Editing Technology Produces First Calf Resistant to BVDV

Here’s Why Cows Produce Less Colostrum During the Fall and Winter

For more on calf management, read: