Crop Conditions

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:24 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Mycotoxin Risk Holds Steady in 2025

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 19:49:12 GMT

According to the dsm-firmenich World Mycotoxin Survey , which assessed the global mycotoxin threat, 86% of North American samples tested above the recommended threshold for at least one mycotoxin. While mycotoxin levels haven’t necessarily escalated from 2024 to 2025, there was a shift in the distribution, which has some implications for cattle and swine operations.

“The 2025 results show a continued mycotoxin challenge, with contamination rates rising for both aflatoxins and zearalenone and average levels increasing across all major mycotoxins,” said Ursula Hofstetter, head of mycotoxin risk management at dsm-firmenich, in a press release.

The Major Players

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungi, most commonly Fusarium, Aspergillus and Claviceps species. They develop in the field and can persist through harvest and storage. Weather stress, hybrid selection and storage management all influence which toxins dominate in a given year.

The primary mycotoxins shaping North American livestock risk in 2025 were:

Deoxynivalenol (DON)
A Type B trichothecene produced by Fusarium species. Commonly found in corn and wheat. Often referred to as ‘vomitoxin’.
Zearalenone (ZEN)
Also a Fusarium toxin. Structurally estrogenic and frequently present alongside DON in corn and small grains.
Fumonisins (FUM)
Produced by Fusarium verticillioides and related species. Predominantly found in corn.
Aflatoxins (AFLA)
Produced by Aspergillus species. More common in drought- or heat-stressed corn.
Ergot alkaloids (ERGOT)
Produced by Claviceps species. Typically associated with small grains.

These toxins rarely occur in isolation. Co-contamination often shapes the reality producers see on the farm.

What Changed from 2024 to 2025

The 2025 North American mycotoxin prevalence in raw materials compared to 2024 shows the following shifts:

DON: 74% → 76%
ZEN: 73% → 78%
FUM: 46% → 55%
AFLA: 15% → 17%
ERGOT: 44% → 9%

Trichothecenes remain deeply entrenched, with DON prevalence increasing slightly. Most of this increase is a result of an increase in wheat (73% → 93%). Meanwhile, fumonisins rose meaningfully and ergots dropped sharply.

Cattle: Rumen Function, Immune Resilience and Production Losses

Cattle historically are considered somewhat more resilient to mycotoxins than monogastrics, owing to partial ruminal detoxification. However, evidence increasingly shows persistent exposure to Fusarium toxins like DON, ZEN and FUM, especially in combination, can exert significant effects on digestion, immunity and metabolic health.

When looking at global finished feed samples for ruminants:

DON was prevalent in 69% of samples and above the risk threshold in 53% of samples.
ZEN was prevalent in 73% of samples and above the risk threshold in 33% of samples.
AFLA was present in 34% of samples and above the risk threshold in 29% of samples.

Studies have demonstrated short-term exposure to Fusarium toxins, including ZEN and FUM, affects fermentation patterns and the microbial community, which in turn can reduce fiber breakdown and volatile fatty acid production — key drivers of energy supply in cattle. Even modest disruptions to the rumen microbiota can reduce feed efficiency and gain over time.

The immune system is also affected by mycotoxins. The immunosuppressive effects of common mycotoxins in ruminants have been documented , including alterations in cytokine gene expression, immunoglobulin production and macrophage function.

Further, individual toxins like AFLA have well-established effects on liver function and general metabolism in cattle. Chronic AFLA exposure has been linked to reduced appetite, lower weight gains and elevated liver enzymes, indicating compromised hepatic function that can impact production and health resilience.

These findings indicate how cattle performance and disease resistance can be eroded by the mycotoxin patterns reported in the 2025 data. Persistent DON and ZEN exposure, combined with higher FUM presence, places additional load on rumen fermentation and immune competence, potentially contributing to subclinical production drift.

Swine: Immune Disruption, Gut Barrier Injury and Performance Drag

In swine, elevated prevalence of DON, ZEN and FUM can exert systemic effects on immune function, gut integrity and reproductive physiology at both clinical and subclinical levels.

When looking at global finished feed samples for swine:

DON was present in 85% of samples and above the risk threshold in 41% of samples.
ZEN was present in 79% of samples and above the risk threshold in 19% of samples.
FUM was present in 44% of samples and above the risk threshold in 8% of samples.

Research has shown DON and FUM alter the gut epithelial barrier, impair immune defenses and increase bacterial translocation from the gut, making pigs more susceptible to infections even when properly vaccinated. In the immune tissues themselves, DON exposure has been linked to changes in the gene expression of key antimicrobial and inflammatory regulators, implying a weakened ability to respond to disease challenge at the cellular level.

ZEN adds another layer of complexity. Beyond its well-known estrogenic effects (i.e., swelling of reproductive tissues and altered estrous cycles), ZEN has been shown to suppress antibody production in porcine immune cells, reducing levels of IgM, IgG and IgA. These immunoglobulins are important for protective vaccine responses. This explains why farms employing what should be effective vaccination programs still report breakthrough disease.

Collectively, these mechanisms mean widespread DON and ZEN exposure is a disease vulnerability issue. When the gut barrier is compromised and immune cell function is suppressed, pigs are less able to defend against respiratory pathogens, enteric bacteria and systemic infections alike, and their response to vaccination may be diminished.

Mycotoxin Co-Contamination Defines 2025

The defining feature of mycotoxins in 2025 is not a single toxin spike, but co-contamination. Feeds routinely contain multiple mycotoxins at once and their effects overlap, creating steady biological pressure.

The result is rarely dramatic toxicosis, but production drift is reflected in reduced gains, narrower reproductive margins, lowered health resilience and increased performance variability.

With persistent DON, rising ZEN and higher FUM prevalence in North America, ingredient-level vigilance and close monitoring of performance trends are important. The mycotoxin burden did not spike, but it did rearrange.

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 16:25:32 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:17:28 GMT

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then the video Iowa farmer Dan Striegel shot last week must be worth thousands more. In the video, Striegel is shown harvesting a field of emerald-green corn enveloped in a cloud of orangish-red southern rust.

“We were just getting that field opened up, and I looked over and saw that dust boiling up out of the chopper, so I shot the video,” Striegel says.

Southern Rust? Never heard of her.
What Cheer, Iowa. USA. #pftour25 #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/tiIsUc2CHl
— Dan Striegel (@djsinseia) August 21, 2025

To date, Striegel’s video has garnered more than 48,000 views on X, formerly Twitter.

“We’re in southeast Iowa, Keokuk County, and I think the southern rust is as bad here as it is anywhere,” Striegel adds. “Every field you walk in, if you’re wearing a white T-shirt, you’ll come out of there red.”

A Red Path Of Disease Mars The Midwest

Expect to see more red T-shirt-clad farmers walking out of cornfields across the upper Midwest, based on what the Crop Protection Network (CPN) southern rust map is showing.

The CPN continually updates its online, interactive map showing the counties by state where southern rust infections are confirmed. Now, in late August, the counties look like red steppingstones. They form a checkered path from southwest Michigan through northern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Wisconsin, across all of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of the way across Nebraska. Eastern South Dakota is also lit up with a string of red counties, as are parts of southern to central Minnesota.

The amount of southern rust present in the upper Midwest is worrisome to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. In severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the CPN.

“At most, one in 10 growers in northern Iowa and Minnesota have seen the kind of southern rust some of them are seeing this year,” says Ferrie, who was working last week with corn growers in both states.

“It was a problem in probably eight out of every 10 fields I was in, and they’d all been sprayed at least once,” he says. “Minnesota has a corn crop that’ll knock your socks off – yield potential of 250, 270. I encouraged every grower to spray their field a second time except for two fields. One had been knocked down by hail, and the other had a hybrid that was clean.”

I spoke with a good friend of mine from Iowa yesterday that is an agronomist and farmer. He said the southern rust in corn across Iowa and much of the Midwest will take 9 to 12 bushel/acre off corn yields on average from what his team and himself are seeing. pic.twitter.com/Ad1VJ9oQBg
— Captain Cornelius1 (@ISU145) August 26, 2025

Hybrids Have Little To No Resistance To Southern Rust

A combination of early-season moisture, heat and wind formed the perfect storm for southern rust this season, allowing the disease-causing fungal spores (Puccinia polysora) to move from southern climes up to the Midwest, according to Kurt Maertens, BASF technical service representative for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.

“We’ve seen it all – southern rust, tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot. Our corn has been inundated with all these fungal diseases, and we started seeing them early,” says Maertens.

If there’s a silver lining to southern rust, it’s that it does not overwinter in corn residue like tar spot does. But like tar spot, southern rust takes advantage of hybrids that have no built-in resistance. For many growers, that was an Achilles heel this season.

“When you’re dealing with a 117-day hybrid like they grow in southern Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, you don’t grow corn that doesn’t have good southern rust resistance, because they deal with it every year,” Ferrie notes. “When you move to Minnesota, and you’re planting 102- to 95-day corn, you’re probably not going to find hybrids with southern rust resistance.”

Striegel says that was true for his neighbor’s cornfield, which he custom chopped for silage. “That field had two hybrids in it, one was worse than the other, and the field had been sprayed with a fungicide,” he says.

He adds that he also sprayed his own cornfields with fungicide, but they are still inundated with southern rust.

“We’ve had southern rust before, and it’s not usually something we have to worry about, but this is really bad,” Striegel says. “I’m standing on my deck looking at the cornfield next to my house, and you know, all of the leaves from the ears down in that field are covered with it.”

Southern rust is real in eastern Nebraska. Fungicide 3 weeks ago, 2nd app today with some potassium acetate pic.twitter.com/WZubU6IBwz
— Trent Mastny (@TrentMastny) August 21, 2025

How Late Is A Fungicide Application Still Worthwhile?

Ferrie says the fields he scouted last week were at late R3 to early R4 and had already been sprayed with fungicide at least once, but the disease was rebuilding.

“Any field where farmers had sprayed two weeks previously, the southern rust and northern corn leaf blight, to a lesser degree, were coming back, especially the southern rust. It was resporating,” he says.

The intense disease pressure from southern rust, tar spot and others have kept fungicide use at high levels this season, despite poor commodity prices.

“Because of that [amount of disease pressure], we have seen increased demand for our fungicides this year,” says Maertens, who encouraged customers to get applications made at the beginning of tassel.

Maertens says he has fielded a lot of questions this summer from farmers, asking how late they could go with a fungicide application and still benefit.

“Our recommendation is to get in front of disease,” he says. “Generally, we stop applications before we get to dent (R5). That’s not to say a later application can’t have some benefit, but our best results have been before infection was able to take place.”

Southern rust is a yield enemy farmers routinely face in the Southeast, reports corn yield champion Randy Dowdy, Valdosta, Ga. He participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week and said on U.S. Farm Report he believes many Midwest farmers still have time to address disease.

“We need to implore the fungicides, the technologies out there and get after it and protect this crop, especially that crop that still has not reached dent,” he says.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer likes to see farmers complete their fungicide applications on the front side of dough (early R4). “Once we get to early dent, I think it’s a little more challenging to get the payback consistently, though we’ve applied at early dent (R5), and seen a nice response,” says Bauer, who is based in south-central Michigan.

Under the tough disease pressure farmers are facing this year, Bauer is telling growers to scout fields and evaluate what growth stage their crop is in before they walk away or pull the fungicide trigger one last time.

She adds that farmers need to check the label to make sure the product used is able to address southern rust effectively. She describes these as “Cadillac” products containing the newest chemistry.

“When it comes to some of these diseases, especially southern rust and tar spot, I do believe a little bit of a Hail Mary pass can be effective,” she says. “Will it be as effective as an application you could have made on a more timely basis? Well, no, you could have made more money doing it timely, but you’re still protecting bushels and gaining ROI at the end.”

Ferrie adds that farmers might want to do the late-season fungicide application to keep their corn crop standing until they can put their harvest plan in place.

“Be doing the push test to check stalk quality,” he advises.

Southern Rust/Silage Alert!!

Southern Rust has been aggressively advancing in many fields, especially those without a fungicide treatment. In some situations the plants are shutting down prematurely and plant material is senescing rapidly.

While we typically want to get down… pic.twitter.com/aK3hGgZE19
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) August 26, 2025

Striegel says some of the farmers around him are heading to fields to harvest their silage corn sooner than later, because of standability concerns. “Some of this corn got planted early, and we had a lot of heat. The crop matured quickly, and the diseases are kind of shutting it down. It’s just dying out, and guys are going to go get it,” he explains.

That’s the strategy Ferrie encourages farmers to use in regular production corn, too.

“Harvest the fields most at risk first. But if a field of corn goes down, go combine the fields where the corn is still standing and come back to that one later,” he recommends.

The reasoning is you don’t want to risk more corn going down while you’re harvesting the field of corn that already has.

“While I was driving through Iowa last week, I kept thinking that if I built corn reels to pick up down corn I’d bulk up my inventory, because I know where they’re going to get used,” Ferrie says, only half joking. “Yes, harvesting corn at 25% moisture is expensive, but down corn will kick your butt.”

Your next read: Revenge Applications: Why They Don’t Work, Cost You Money and Bushels, and Are Frankly Illegal

What's Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 13:19:12 GMT

The view of the corn crop from the road this year looks good. Fields have lush green corn plants and even stands, which is why farmers had high hopes for bin-busting yields.

But as farmers wade into their fields and pull back the husks, some are finding an unpleasant surprise: an issue with overly tight wrapped tassels .

“It’s a very unique phenomenon we’re dealing with, and a lot of these issues have come from tassel wrapping,” says Dan Quinn, Extension corn specialist for Purdue University.

"Tassel wrap" showing up in WC Indiana (photos taken July 10), joining the party seen across much of the Midwest. Seems linked to hybrid, planting date, and pre-symptom temp swings. Potential pollination issues also observed ~10 days after symptoms.@PurdueAgronomy @PurdueAg pic.twitter.com/qVKDr7m1Th
— Dan Quinn (@PurdueCorn) July 21, 2025

Quinn started seeing the pollination problem in some of his own fields, and once he took a closer, he says it was quick to diagnose if you caught the field at the right time.

“It’s just a function of these tassels being almost stuck in the upper leaves,” he explains. “We’re seeing those upper leaves tightly wrap around the tassel, and in many cases it’s delaying the tassel emergence.”

He says that delay from the overly tight tassels is throwing off the synchronization of pollination at a critical time, and now it’s showing up in the form of poorly pollinated ears.

“The big thing with corn is we talk about the synchrony between pollen drop and the silk emergence,” Quinn says. “[Pollination] a very fairly short window in corn. Anything that throws out that timing can cause issues with pollination.”

What’s catching so many farmers by surprise is the fact crop conditions look phenomenal across many areas of the country this year thanks to good planting conditions and timely rains. In fact, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows nearly three-quarters of the nation’s corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition.

“You have to get in there and peel back the husks,” Quinn says. “You have to take a look at kernel development. Another thing we often look at is when silks, or the ovules on the kernel, are fertilized. When that occurs, the silks will detach. If you carefully pull back the husk, you have to be careful, and you can actually shake the ear to see which silks fall off or which ones actually stay attached.”

Pollination Problems in Iowa

Mark Licht, an Extension cropping systems specialist at Iowa State University, first started seeing corn pollination issues in early July .

“Some of those first tasseling fields were where this really started to show up,” Licht says. “I think that’s attributed to some of the characteristics around what’s causing it, and it kept going until probably about a week ago is when we kind of stopped seeing it in the field. But then, of course, farmers that had noticed the pollination issues, and that’s when, they were still getting agronomists, myself and others out to look at their fields.”

Tightly wrapped tassels in SW IN—seems to be hybrid specific. Planter was split in each field—The other hybrid and refuge shot normal tassels. pic.twitter.com/xyJFqaG4Oy
— Hillari Mason (@HillariMason) July 21, 2025

He says the tight tassel wrap usually lasts around three to five days and is noticeable in fields during that time. But it’s a short window that growers can see the tassel tight tassel wrap in their fields. And when it grows out of it, and the tassel blossoms out like normal.

That means if farmers didn’t notice the tight tassel in that short three to five day window, they might not even know pollination problems exist in their field until they actually walk into the field and check ears to see how the corn pollinated.

“If it unwrapped quickly, we might only see a dozen or two dozen kernels that were not pollinating,” Licht says. “Some of them that stayed wrapped up a little bit tighter, longer, we might see 25% to a third of that ear didn’t pollinate well.”

What’s the Worst-Case Scenario in Iowa?

For Licht, he has seen fields where eight out of 10 ears had issues.

“One of the fields that I was in, it was about 80% of the ears, and it was probably in that 25% of the ear with poor pollination,” he says. “So, this pollination issues [from tight tassel wrap] could be somewhat significant. That’s a worst-case scenario. Most of this is on the fields with pollination issues that I’ve seen are on the lighter side of things where it may only be a dozen kernels or so impacted on an ear, and it might only be 20% of ears impacted.”

At Least 10 States Are Reporting Pollination Problems From Overly Tight Wrapped Tassels

Licht says the problem is widespread, but in Iowa, it appears to be primarily isolated to the central and southeast portions of the state. He’s also heard reports of tight tassel wrap impacting pollination in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana.

Add those seven states with reports of the problem in Missouri, Kansas and Ohio, and the total grows to 10 states seeing pollination issues this year.

What’s Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Plants experience tight tassel wrap each year, according to Licht, but he says the crop typically grows out of it before pollination. This year, the leaves stayed tightly wrapped around the tassel as the plant started to pollinate, which is where the issues occurred.

“I think we do see these plants wrap up each year. Typically it’s more in the mid-vegetative time period, so eighth leaf stage up to 13 or 14 leaf stage,” he says. “This is really rare when it’s wrapping around the tassel as the tassel is starting to shed pollen. I’ve been an agronomist for 20 plus years, and I think this is only the second time I’ve seen it.”

Record overnight temperatures.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien )

Both Licht and Quinn attribute this rare occurrence of tight tassel wrap during pollination to key environmental issues, including a lot of soil moisture and a sudden switch to high temperatures. The near-record overnight temperatures are also thought to have aided the problem. It was a “perfect storm” for issues to exist, and the hybrids impacted may have been more susceptible to rapid growth syndrome this spring.

“We had rapid growth at the end of that vegetative development,” explains Licht.

Can Bad Genetics or Poor Breeding Also Be to Blame?

Farmers are looking for someone, or something, to blame. After all, they have a lot riding on this year’s crop. And considering the issue is occurring across a wide geography of the Corn Belt, some critics are questioning if the issue is all weather or environmental related.

So that begs the following questions: Is it bad genetics? Is it poor breeding, or any one thing to pinpoint as the cause? Those are the questions we asked Licht.

“I don’t think so,” Licht says. “Yes, it is hybrid specific, and it’s happening across all brands, but some of the hybrids I’m hearing about were planted last year and the year before, but the problem didn’t show up. I think it’s really a combination of the hybrid and the environment coming together perfectly, and it’s more prolific this year.”

Kind of depressing pic.twitter.com/Mgf8dJd5dz
— Lance Schiele (@schiele_lance) July 22, 2025

The Issue Is Happening Across Several Seed Brands

Similar to Licht’s assessment, Quinn says it seems to be an issue across seed brands .

“I think this issue has been the biggest surprise because the areas where we see significant tassel wrap and the pollination issues are areas you would not expect to have any issues,” Quinn says. “The fields I’ve walked are some of the best corn fields in the state. Iowa has a lot of issues with [tight tassel wrap], but they have outstanding crop conditions in that state.”

Add ND to the list of states with wrapped tassels pic.twitter.com/VyeQ41og6s
— Blase Hendrickson (@hendricksonfarm) July 23, 2025

Quinn says from the fields he’s scouted, the issue is specific to a late April or first week of May planting date.

“A lot of that corn was reaching pollination in the past couple of weeks,” Quinn says. “If you look at our planting progress, on May 5, we had about 25% of the corn acres planted in Indiana. Based on that number, I would say maybe 10% to 20% of the acres can potentially be impacted in Indiana.”

He says best-case scenario is the tight wrapped tassel caused no pollination issues. Worst case, from what he’s seen, is 20% to 30% of a field is impacted by pollination issues.
___________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Purdue’s Dan Quinn exclusively on Farm Journal TV .
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Quinn says that’s what makes it so hard to quantify the impact of pollination problems on the size of this year’s crop.

“We still need a lot more time to assess these fields, walk these fields, pull ears and take a look at pollination to get a better handle on the magnitude of it, Quinn says.

Why Isn’t the Corn Market Taking Note?

At the beginning of July, market analysts and traders were continuing to ramp up yield forecasts, which sprouted from the fact crop conditions are so strong, and moisture from the Gulf continued to pump rainfall across the Midwest. Some yield forecasts were as high as 189 bu. per acre, which would be well above the 181 bu. per acre national yield forecast currently projected by USDA.

With no way of knowing the scope or severity of the pollination problems, market analysts say the U.S. corn crop is still shaping up to be good. The pollination problems could trim a few bushels off the extremely high national yield forecasts being thrown around.

“From our vantage point, yes, it does help temper some of the 185, 186, 187 yield forecasts?” says Jim Emter, CEO of Van Ahn and Company. “We’re more in that tune right now of a 179 to 184 [bu. per acre national yield forecast]. It feels like we’re in a race to print the biggest one right now by a lot of people.”

Still, farmers are frustrated. They see the social media posts about pollination problems, and then some walk their own fields, only to find pollination issues firsthand. They’re frustrated the corn market isn’t reacting to what could be an unexpected production problem this year.

AgTraderTalk’s Garrett Toay was on “U.S. Farm Report” this week and was asked why the issue isn’t moving the markets yet.

“Nobody knows,” Toay says. “I’ve talked to industry contacts; I think it’s a fairly widespread issue. It’s not brand specific as we originally thought early on, and what I’m being told is the corn plant grew too quickly in some areas. It works itself out in some areas, but I think the problem of the market is it’s not too concerned about it or not paying attention to it because we don’t know how widespread it is. We don’t know if it will even have an impact on the actual yield. But it’s one of those things we’ll trade when we get there sort of thing.”

Puzzling Problem

It’s a puzzling problem, especially in fields where planting got off to a strong start, and from farmers to agronomists, it’s catching everyone by surprise.

“That’s been the biggest surprise is that we can still have issues even when things look really good out there,” Quinn says.

__________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Iowa State’s Mark Licht exclusively on Farm Journal TV.

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Near Ideal Growing Conditions?

There’s no secret that pollination problems are an issue in corn this year. However, critics question how weather is playing a factor when the U.S. has experienced near ideal growing conditions this year.

Nutrien’s Eric Snodgrass says moisture has been almost ideal, but the overnight temperatures mgith be playing a factor into the issues farmers are seeing. Watch his discussion, along with the rainfall forecast for the next few weeks.

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

What the Wet Start to the Month Could Mean for Drought and Heat in June

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:26:19 GMT

Severe storms are threatening the central U.S. again this week. The heaviest rain is hitting areas that have already been pummeled by intense rainfall over the past month — including parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the mid-South.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.”

Rainfall amounts the last week of May.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

The deluge of rain and flooding across those areas is causing a nightmare for farmers . They’re running out of time to get their crops in the ground, facing record amounts of prevent plant.

“We have prevent plant in front of us at this point now where there’s going to be abandonment in most parts of the Midwest, but especially that Northern Delta area,” Lerner says. “We’ve also had some rain in the Northern Plains. That’s been really good, I think. You would probably agree they were a bit dry earlier on and they got some really decent rains. But all of this has been greater than what was expected.”

It’s been the wettest spring in over 100 years in parts of the Delta. But now that we are entering June, Lerner thinks the weather pattern is starting to change.

“I think we’re on the cusp of it, but we’ve got another 10 days to go, unfortunately — at least a week. I think the models are a little bit too wet, to be honest with you, with the second week outlook. So, a lot of the rain you see here on this chart in the Southern Plains, in Texas in particular, over into the lower parts of the Delta, may be a little bit overdone,” he says.

Precipitation estimate through June 8, 2025.

(World Weather )

Lerner says the European model is forecasting more heavy rains for areas of the South, but he thinks it may not actually be as much as that model shows.

“What should happen as we move forward in time is that we should end up shifting everything to the north. We’re going to have a ridge building in the middle of the country that should help to push the pattern northward. I’m looking for the lower parts of the Midwest and the southeastern states to probably end up with a little better scenario as we go out in the second half of this month. I can’t see how this is going to continue all the way through the month of June,” he adds.

Some agricultural meteorologists have been seeing signs of drought since late winter. Cooler temperatures off the coast of Alaska was one major sign they’ve been watching.

The latest forecasts have also been pointing to a warmer-than-average summer when it comes to temperatures. But Lerner cautions it won’t be extreme heat for most of the country this summer.

“We have so much moisture in the soil right now that I don’t think we can get excessively hot like we have in past years. As we heat up the ground, we’re going to pull that moisture out of the soil and add humidity to the air. It’ll be a warmer-than-normal summer, but it’s not going to be excessively high,” he says.

While it won’t be extremely hot, Lerner does think it will be humid — which could keep nighttime temperatures elevated throughout the summer.

“Our nighttime lows will definitely be above average. And the afternoon highs will probably be a little warm too, but they won’t be excessively hot,” he adds.

World Weather’s outlook for June.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

As for precipitation outlook for June, World Weather says the extremely wet start to June is creating more of a wetter bias for the month across the lower Midwest.

“The Northern Plains will turn wetter as we go into the second half of this month, as we shift everything to the north. And the one area that’s probably going be drier bias will be in Nebraska and parts of Iowa,” he says. “Those areas, of course, were previously dry. They recently got some nice rain, but they are going to reverse themselves back into a drier mode. So overall, for the key crop areas in the central part of the U.S., it certainly doesn’t look like a terrible growing season — at least for the month of June. We should get a little bit of reversal to take place.”

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:46 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:11 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:30 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

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No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:02:43 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:36:01 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

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60% Drought Risk? The Latest Forecast For The 2025 Growing Season

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:28:06 GMT

Spring has officially sprung and that means heavy rains are on the way, specifically from eastern Texas into Ohio this week. Any fieldwork and planting will come to a halt, and Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass warns of significant flooding risk.

“We’ve got a swath of the country that could pick up anywhere between 5” to upward of 12” of rainfall,” he told “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “In the Ohio River and in the lower Mississippi River, there’s going to be a major flood trend.”

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s a chance for even higher totals in some areas.

“There are some indications we could see totals up in the 18" range likely across Arkansas on into parts of northwestern or northern Kentucky before this is all said and done,” Rippey told AgDay’s Michelle Rook.

Meteorologists have been warning of drought conditions for months now, so this type of weather system should have a positive impact, right? Wrong – Snodgrass explains this is the wrong time, wrong place.

“This is not a place where we’re missing out on moisture. This is the place we saw flood back in early March and even in parts of February,” he says.

The good news is snow is in the forecast for some areas in need of moisture, such as parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. But unfortunately, it likely won’t be enough.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” Snodgrass says. “When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%. Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coalmine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, it’s a bad sign.

“If in June we start to watch the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures drop, that’s actually symptomatic of the atmosphere losing momentum. And if it loses momentum, there’s nothing to keep the Bermuda high over Bermuda,” he says.

What It Means For Planting
With flooding in the East and drought in the West, Snodgrass plans to use the Mississippi River as his main moisture boundary this year.

“If you’re east of it, I think spring is super tight. If you’re west of it, we have got to return moisture to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska in order to beat back any sort of risk of drought going forward,” he says. “I really just think it’s West versus East this year on who’s got the favorable conditions early versus the risk in the middle of the season.

Taking a closer look at that outlook for a wet spring in the East, Snodgrass specifically says the month of April is shaping up to be one week on and then one week off.

“Right now, we’re week on with heavy rains. Next week, we get cooler and drier. Week three in April goes right back into an active pattern,” he explains. “What I want to know is if week four of April brings in cold conditions right after Easter. If that occurs, we just threw the brakes on any early planting hopes. Right now though, it appears that most of spring would favor tighter windows in the East.”

Despite the current outlook, a challenging spring and dry summer doesn’t mean game over.

“Any sort of problem we thought we saw will be gone in a heartbeat with good July rainfall. We are not settled. There’s a lot to understand and change with this pattern,” Snodgrass says. “Let’s say we do have drought, but you don’t have the heat stress. We can make a huge crop in drought conditions, so don’t forget that.”

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Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:14:24 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

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Will the U.S. Corn Crop Bake In the July Heat? What You Need to Know About the July Forecast

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:03:38 GMT

The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.

Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.

With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.

“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Rain Chances in July

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook . NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.

Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.

“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”

Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.

“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.

According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.

“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.

Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.

“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”

The July Heat

What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.

“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”

30-day temperature outlook

(CPC )

Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.

“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”

Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.

This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.

Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.

“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.

He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.

“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:23:00 GMT

This week’s USDA crop progress report shows conditions continuing to decline for corn and soybeans. For corn, 69% is in good to excellent condition (down 3% from last week). The total soybean crop in good to excellent condition is also down 3% - from 70% last week to 67% this week.

And while some growers have severe drought to blame, others can point to extreme flooding.

This June has held two different extremes--

💧One of the wettest on record for the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains

☀️While being one of the driest on record for the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic

👉The rest of the month? More rain for the Upper Midwest while drier than normal… pic.twitter.com/aWVZ1o5gsB
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) June 23, 2024

In Iowa, growers might need to grab a life jacket before going to check their fields.

Abby and I went out and scouted a little bit of corn this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/yBBLsAjFkp
— Pete Crew. (Not the sharpest knife in the drawer). (@pete_90210) June 23, 2024

Last year we had 5.5" rain during growing season and this farm averaged 240 bu. This year 16" so far in May/June. pic.twitter.com/wOsGJsH4hm
— Living the dream (@NeIowaFarmer) June 22, 2024

Rock Valley, IA Flooding today. What a trainwreck pic.twitter.com/rumOfxyslQ
— Chris VB🐷🐖🌾🚤⛳ (@chrsvnbk) June 22, 2024

South Dakota farmers are having a similar experience - with this operation reporting 10" of rain in one day.

Water running into lake, yes my folks have house here! My farm is completely engulfed, can’t get within 15 miles. Animals safe, daughter safe we appreciate all of the kindness. Stay safe ❤️ pic.twitter.com/NvVMjqXDas
— ChelLewis (@LewisEQAcademy) June 24, 2024

The Oklahoma Pork Council has even started work to help those affected by the flood.

We are working to support our friends in the panhandle with food and other assistance as they recover from severe flash flooding. If you know of a direct need that our alliance of great community members can help meet, please give us a call or email us at kdeniz@okpork.org. pic.twitter.com/KT0meG0k5H
— Oklahoma Pork (@Okpork) June 19, 2024

But it seems the rain is only falling in one part of the country as farmers further east are hoping the skies open up soon.

Somewhere between the flood and us

It is just right pic.twitter.com/jUvV2wWBTY
— Stephen Ellis 190/58 (@sellis_1994) June 22, 2024

Hot Weather and Recent Dryness Create Favorable Conditions for Rapid Drought Development. https://t.co/UMw8lZcKJV pic.twitter.com/Unqb9Al6oa
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) June 24, 2024

Click here to let us know how your crops are progressing.

Corn and Soybean Planting Progress Rounds Third And Heads for Home

Tue, 28 May 2024 21:38:15 GMT

Farmers have made admirable planting progress over the last week, despite several severe weather and tornado outbreaks last week across the heartland.

You can check out the latest weekly planting progress report every Monday from USDA for yourself here.

Corn farmers are surging ahead, with 10 of 18 states currently 80% planted or better as of May 26. At opposite ends of the field, you have North Carolina first across the finish line (100% planted) while Pennsylvania farmers sit just above half planted (53% - 13 points behind the state’s five-year average). Farmers in Michigan made huge gains over the week, adding 25 percentage points of corn planting progress to eclipse 75% total.

Soybean farmers, having a bit more wiggle room with a shorter to maturity crop than their corn growing brethren, are watching weather reports and still playing things a bit close to the vest.

Michigan (24% gained), Minnesota (21%) and North (21%) and South Dakota (19%) added the most soybean planting progress over the last week. Only two states – Iowa and Nebraska – remain behind the five-year average for soybean acreage planted. Meanwhile, Mississippi still leads the pack with 92% of its soybean acres planted and ready to go.

RELATED: It Won’t Quit Raining, And Farmers Are Growing Frustrated With How Quickly Planting Progress Has Stalled

#plant24 Updates from X

Kansas farmer Matt Long @LongRBEINC says that’s a wrap:

And that’s a wrap on #plant24! pic.twitter.com/gNEsyxfka7
— Matt Long (@LongRBEINC) May 28, 2024

Ontario Farmer Claire Horan @clairehoran shows off some nicely emerged soybeans:

Cranberry Beans at VC stage. Unrolled cotyledons and unifoliate leaves. Keep on growing! 😁👍🏻 #plant24 #Ontag pic.twitter.com/cT2VR0TC6M
— Claire Horan (@agclairehoran) May 28, 2024

@Redwards40 gettin’ it done AND helpin’ out the neighbors, what a guy:

Last pass! So long #plant24 now off to do some seeding for a neighbor. pic.twitter.com/Z0t4dOcRm5
— Ryan Edwards (@Redwards40) May 28, 2024

Firing up the pivots on the Western Plains with @Goldendeefarms:

New boots for the corner arm pivot
I'm tired of pulling it out when it gets stuck tucked in

We put on 18.4-34 tractor tires instead of the 14.9-24, Skipped the 11-38

Time to start #irrigate24 & find out how they work#plant24 #Irrigation #Saskatchewan #westcdnag #skag #tires pic.twitter.com/fU8mDSNu1i
— Anthony Eliason (@Goldendeefarms) May 28, 2024

Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 14:44:00 GMT

The lingering effects of El Niño are still being felt in the U.S. The deluge of rains that fell across the mid-south, southeast and eastern U.S. are a reminder of that. However, one agricultural meteorologist says as El Niño fades, La Niña is already knocking at the door, and it could bring dryness to the southern U.S. The biggest question is now timing.

Just last fall, 40% of the lower 48 states were experiencing some form of drought. Today, that number is cut in half thanks to the impacts of El Niño.

“I feel like the transition to La Niña is already underway,” says Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist. “The thing about that is that the impacts often are not felt for many months.”

Rippey says just like the impacts of El Niño are still being felt four months after its peak, the claws of La Niña may not come until fall.

“Even if we make that transition into La Niña by, say, summertime, we’re likely not to feel the impacts of La Niña until we get into the autumn of 2024,” Rippey says. “So that’s good news for the growing season.”

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA), there’s now a 60% chance that La Niña will develop between June and August. NOAA still thinks by November 2024 to January 2025, there’s an 85% chance a La Niña will be in effect. The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to trend toward a La Niña phase, coming out of one of the strongest El Niño events on record since 1950.

Spring Forecast Barrier Makes it Hard to Predict

What could the transition mean for growing conditions in the U.S.? Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the transition to La Niña is so hard to predict because of something atmospheric scientists call the spring forecast barrier.

“What we found is that our ability to predict well how El Niño is going to transition before you get through the month of May is pretty bad,” Snodgrass says. “Once we get into May and start to pay attention to those ocean temperature changes. We’ll be much better at predicting it, and a lot rides on it.”

Snodgrass looked back at history, and he says every time El Niño peaked at Christmas then faded until it was eventually replaced by La Niña in summer, it created a drought scenario in the Cotton Belt.

“Some of those years it was over Texas, some of those years it was in the Delta and some of those years it was in the Southeast,” Snodgrass says. “But if you keep drought down South, we tend to get ridge riding storms over the top of it in the Corn Belt, so the Cotton Belt gets the stress and the Corn Belt tends to do better.”

While it’s hard for Snodgrass to know what the summer will bring, he says there is one thing he’s confident in. That’s the temperature outlook.

“I do think one thing about this summer, and that is I’m expecting warmer than average temperatures,” Snodgrass says. “Most of that coming in warmer overnight lows though, based on what I know now. And a lot of that is predicated on the collapse of El Niño to neutral conditions and eventually into La Niña.”

Whether it turns into a hot and dry summer or a much wetter forecast than some are anticipating, Snodgrass says he was burned by weather prediction models last growing season, so he’s skeptical to rely on those again. However, he does think La Niña could open the door for a very active hurricane season this year.

The El Niño Effect: Is El Niño to Blame for the Historic Heat and Drought that Gripped the U.S. in 2023?

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 22:10:01 GMT

2023 was a year full of weather impacts on crops and livestock. From the intense heat in the South to the drought that parked itself across the South and Midwest, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says those are the two weather events that stole headlines this past year.

“When we look back at 2023, I’m actually going to break heat and drought into two separate categories,” says Rippey. “Really, when you look at the extreme heat this past year, it was focused across the deep South from Arizona to Florida, and pretty much everywhere in between. And that was certainly a huge weather story that affected parts of the cotton belt.”

From wiping out a large part of the cotton crop in west Texas to hitting sugar cane production in Louisiana, Rippey says nearly the entire deep South saw impacts of the year’s extreme heat.

“Of course, that came with drought in many cases. But when you look at these overall temperatures, the hottest summer on record and a lot of hottest months on record, that was a big story in the deep South,” says Rippey.

While other parts of the U.S. still had drought, in some areas it didn’t pack as big of a punch because it came without the heat. That was the case in much of the Corn Belt. The drought hit last year without the extended intense heat, which had a big impact on crops.

“We were very fortunate, especially in the Corn Belt, that we did not see the combination of extreme heat and drought at the same time. And that actually led to some of those better outcomes than expected for U.S. corn,” explains Rippey.

With USDA currently projecting the 2023 U.S. corn crop to be the largest on record, Rippey says the mild temperatures are what helped save the crops.

“You do see that things actually turned out better in states like Iowa. When you look at the rainfall numbers, they were abysmal, almost as dry as 2012. But then the heat just wasn’t there. And today’s varieties are little bit more tolerant of drought and heat. And the outcome was a little better than we expected,” says Rippey.

It wasn’t all good news. While crop yields turned out better than expected for some farmers, the lack of moisture continued to dwindle grazing conditions and hay stocks in 2023. Those created additional hurdles in rebuilding the shrinking U.S. cattle herd.

So, what was the culprit that caused the intense heat that suffocated the South during the summer months? Rippey says while it’s still being studied, he thinks it’s tied to one major weather event in 2023, in particular.

“I will go out on a limb and say that that may have been an early sneak attack from El Niño ,” says Rippey. “The reason I say that is that because we did have an early onset El Niño. It was pretty much in place by late spring, early summer. It’s pretty consistent with El Niño to have a big ridge of high pressure that comes out of Central America. And at times, we’ve seen it before, that does sometimes extend all the way into the southern tier of the United States.”

He says El Niño can also be tied to the shipping crisis that wreaked havoc on exports in 2023, causing massive shipping delays, as well as forcing shippers to carry lighter loads.

“And certainly what happened in Mexico and parts of Central America, think about the Central American drought that’s causing shipping problems in the Panama Canal. A lot of that, I think, could be tied to the heat in the atmosphere related to the early onset El Niño,” says Rippey.

According to Rippey, the drought in the Midwest can be attributed to the blocking high pressure that wouldn’t budge across Canada this past spring, summer or fall.

“The U.S. Midwest happened to be on the southern end of a lot of that high pressure over Canada. So when we think about that, think about the Canadian wildfires, all the smoke coming down. And we were just on the southern edge of that in the Midwest,” Rippey explains.

He says that, along with Northeasterly winds blocking moisture from the Gulf, is what caused the drought in the Midwest.

“At the same time, high pressure was far enough north that the heat and unusual warmth were actually focused across Canada. So, it wasn’t all that hot on the southern end of the high, but it was dry. And that led to that cool drought in the western Corn Belt,” he adds.

El Niño is still in play, as Rippey says El Niño made a splash once again to close out 2023.

“Now that El Niño has kicked in, it’s a strong event, it could be one of the strongest on record,” says Rippey. “We’re seeing that influence of El Niño starting to grab a hold of the reins of U.S. weather patterns. And that’s pretty normal and certainly should continue into early 2024.”

What’s on tap for 2024? Rippey forecasts the intense El Niño will lead to what he calls “pretty profound” impacts for the rest of the winter, and even into spring.

Winter Weather: Find Out What's in Store for Agriculture

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 18:52:06 GMT

The upcoming winter is shaping up to look a bit different than the past several years. The shift to a different weather pattern, El Nino, is in the works – resulting in a very strong subtropical jet stream and a weakened polar jet stream.

Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, shares the predictable changes to North American weather those involved in the agriculture industry should be on the lookout for.

Northern Weather Will Be Drier
One of the common changes Rippey shares is unusually mild weather across the northern tier of the U.S. The mild weather is a result of the weak polar jet stream and affects areas stretching all the way from the Pacific Northwest to New England.

“That of course has implications for winter crops,” Rippey says. You don’t get as much establishment of a snow cover, but at the same time, you don’t have a whole lot of cold weather to deal with and there’s less concern for winter kill. So, it’s kind of a tradeoff there.”

(Farm Journal)

Along with the milder temperatures, northern states are also predicted to see drier conditions this winter.

An outlook published by NOAA in late September shows between a 33 to 50% chance of below average precipitation for a portion of the northern U.S between November and March. The areas NOAA expects the largest impact are the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region.

(Farm Journal)

The dry, warm conditions have the potential to make this planting season an early one.

“It all depends on how the snow falls, but generally speaking, soil temperatures will likely not be as cold as they were in the spring of 2023,” Rippey says. “Given the mild, dry forecast, there may be a fairly quick planting season in the north for spring 2024.”

The Story for Southern States is Much Different
“The enhanced subtropical jet stream tends to bring stronger storms across the southern tier of the United States,” Rippey says. “Sometimes that affects Southern California but it’s more likely along the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic coast.”

NOAA’s predication maps show the highest probability of above average rainfall – 50 to 60% – for states along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.

The increased precipitation in those areas is something Rippey says could help with low water levels from the summer’s drought.

“As we get deeper into autumn and the heart of winter, the odds most definitely increase we will see wetter conditions in places like Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi where we’ve got not only low water levels impacting navigation, but also the saltwater intrusion from the Gulf,” he says. “It may take a while but eventually as the winter proceeds, we should see relief especially in the southern part of the basin.”

The Wild Card to Watch For
A less clear aspect for this winter’s forecast could be due to elevated oceanic temperatures, which have the potential to keep global temperatures high through the winter and into 2024.

The high oceanic temperatures produce blocking high pressure systems, which Rippey says can be blamed for Canada’s wildfire season and recent heat waves and fires in Europe.

“If some of the oceanic temperatures continue to induce weird blocking patterns, that can lead to extremes like heat, cold, droughts and floods that’s generally independent from El Nino,” he says.

Effects on South American Production
El Nino has different implications for growers in South America.

Key production agriculture areas such as southern Brazil and Argentina are just moving into their spring growing season and the El Nino weather patterns are expected to create more favorable conditions for their crops than La Nina.

“From a crop production standpoint, I would expect improving conditions in some of the areas that have been impacted by drought over the last few years,” Rippey says. “As you move northward into the Amazon basin, El Nino can trigger drought. That’s a concern from an ecological standpoint and that drought often extends into places like Mexico and the Caribbean for as long as El Nino persists.”

Drought No More, Farmers Watch Western Kansas Corn Fields Get Hammered by Hail

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 21:58:49 GMT

What’s often called the “white combine” is hammering western Kansas this year, an ugly reality for an area that’s finally receiving rain after nearly five years of drought.

The hail has been widespread, but the severity varies field to field. Oakley, Kan., which sits southeast of Colby, seems to be a bull’s-eye for the hail. Sharon Springs, which is almost to the Colorado border, has also been hit hard by the severe weather.

Whitney Larson , who farms with her husband around Sharon Springs, says prayers were answered this spring when the rains started to fall, but the essential moisture is bringing other challenges.

“We had been in a catastrophic drought for five years,” Larson says. “Seeing rain has been a reminder that our faith finally paid off. We started seeing some rains in March and April, and it’s continued since then, but we did have some very bad hail three weeks ago and then again last night.”

(Farm Journal)

Not only did the area see severe hail Monday night, but it also hit again Tuesday night.

“It’s been disheartening in the fact that it killed some crops,” she says. “But as far as the rain goes, it’s been a very, very big blessing this year.”

Western Kansas farmers are used to dealing with the good with the bad. Drought, hail and even tornadoes this year, the weather is a constant battle.

“Three weeks ago, we had what they say was straight line winds, but it was definitely a tornado,” Larson says. “We have neighbors who live four miles east, and it took out their shop and barn; a 160-year-old concrete barn is now completely gone.”

The tornado flipped over pivots and other machinery in the area.

Hail has been a more common sight, and it even impacted the Larson’s wheat crop. With all the rain, harvest was extremely late this year. Normally, they would be heavy in wheat harvest the beginning of July. This year, they hadn’t even started harvesting in mid-July.

“We had some wheat get tennis ball-size hail and completely totaled it,” Larson says. “But a lot of our wheat actually yielded better than we thought, which was a big blessing. The rains also mean a lot of our area has struggled with weeds.”

Impact on Yields

Some fields hit with hail are already a total loss, while other fields have shredded leaves. According to Crop-Tech Consulting’s Isaac Ferrie, the yield impact will vary.

“In fields that hadn’t pollinated yet, the hail could cause pollination issues, which obviously affects yield potential,” he explains. “In corn that is already tasseled, that means the leaf growth on the plant is done. So, whatever is damaged will not regrow.”

If the plants with shredded leaves can stay alive, Ferrie says they can still benefit the plant to some degree versus plants with leaves that turn brown and die.

“With shredded leaves, the benefit can be limited,” he adds. “It really depends on how long after pollination the hail happened, if the ear is into grain fill, and if so, how far into grain fill. The further along the ear is into grain fill, the better the yields will be.”

Drought Story Differs Greatly Across Kansas

(Farm Journal)

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, dry conditions still cover nearly 88% of the state, with nearly 30% in D3, or extreme drought. In central and southeastern Kansas, the corn crop is showing signs of drought stress. However, 12% of the state is drought-free, which includes where the Larsons farm.

Moderate or severe drought is prevailing through much of the Corn Belt and many areas of #Kansas, #Missouri and #Nebraska are experiencing extreme #drought. Learn more about extreme heat and Kansas farm income in the article: https://t.co/luqqXatSnI pic.twitter.com/eIiCtbOhRH
— K-State Agronomy (@KStateAgron) August 9, 2023

What was green Monday is not upon returning today. #HarvestIsComing pic.twitter.com/wHEug1FF3j
— Brian Sieker 🌾 (@SiekerSales) August 4, 2023

Derecho Packs Punch of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:00:54 GMT

Hurricane-force winds swept through northern Missouri and Iowa and all the way east to Illinois and Indiana on Thursday. The derecho brought wind gusts up to 100 mph in places, flattening cornfields. The storm system also brought crucial rains. While it might not be enough to cure the drought, the rains could help rescue some of the drought-ravaged crops.

According to Accuweather, a derecho is a storm that brings a punch of at least 58 mph winds over the span of at least 400 miles. The storm on Thursday barreled across the Midwest, with some of hardest-hit states being Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. The storm then turned and went south, hitting Tennessee.

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked a destructive #derecho as it raced across the Midwest, causing widespread damage across several states. This visible imagery shows the bubbling clouds, and the satellite's Geostationary Lightning Mapper allowed us to see the frequent… pic.twitter.com/SvYbnuf5em
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 30, 2023

Ken Ferrie , owner of Crop-Tech Consulting, was in the middle of the storm. He spoke to AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks about potential damage, estimating the derecho crossed at least two-thirds of Illinois.

“It’s pretty widespread,” says Ferrie who lives in Heyworth, Ill., just south of Bloomington. “It hit between 12:30 p.m. to 1 p.m. yesterday.”

The storm also brought more than an inch of much-needed rain, which may have saved many of the Illinois corn and soybean crops. Ferrie says there is quite a bit of cleanup that will need to take place with down trees and other damage, and he’s still trying to assess the impact on the crops.

“I have not seen any corn snapped like the derecho in Iowa where crops were just snapped and flat, but there’s a lot of corn laying over,” says Ferrie.

(Farm Journal)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the storm was widespread, impacting an area from the Central Great Plains and northern Missouri, all the way to the Tennessee River Valley.

“The derecho on June 29th was oddly reminiscent of the massive derecho that struck the Midwest on August 10, 2020,” he says. “Now the aerial extent was not quite as large as the August 2020 events and the winds were not quite as high. But nevertheless, we did see widespread 60 to 100 mph winds emerging early in the day on the 29th.”

Brad Rippey discusses the scope and possible scale of damage caused by the derecho this week.

Rippey says the timing of the storm could also be a key factor in determining how much damage it caused to crops.

“We’re not expecting to see the large scale impact that we saw compared to August 2020, partly because it’s earlier in the growing season crops are not as high and susceptible to damage,” says Rippey. “And also just the fact that winds weren’t quite as high and the areal extent wasn’t as great. Still, though, another blow for producers already reeling from drought now contending with the effects of a significant windstorm that blew through the area on June 29th.”

Earlier Planted Corn Hit the Hardest

Ferrie drove across parts of Illinois and into Iowa on Friday, and says he thinks the earlier planted corn is what will be impacted the most from the powerful storm this week.

“April-planted corn is pushing tassels and trying to pollinate, so unfortunately, it’ll get hit the hardest because it’s hard for tasseled corn to stand back up; it’ll just curve at the top,” says Ferrie. “And that down corn creates pollination problems. So, from a yield problem that’ll be the tough spot, and that’ll be the tougher stuff to harvest because it just won’t stand back up.”

First time in my life I’ve pulled up to my parents place and not seen the grain leg standing. The storm hit hard today, but it’s wild in that the corn didn’t get mangled any worse than it did. No one got hurt which is the main thing. pic.twitter.com/Kg0hVyKi5V
— Matthew Bennett (@chief321) June 29, 2023

He says the May-planted corn will still have time to stand back up and recover, but he also points out the later planted corn is seeing more impacts from the drought in Illinois. The corn that farmers planted later didn’t establish good roots as it has seen little to no rain since planting. That made the corn more vulnerable to wind damage.

“We have a lot of acres that are getting what I call restless corn syndrome and struggling to get crown roots made. And that stuff isn’t pollinating. It’s the later planted crop that’s probably some of the worst,” says Ferrie.

Storm damage in Illinois from today. Any damage to your farm? pic.twitter.com/RWOHDjPQ2U
— IL Corn (@ilcorn) June 29, 2023

While the wind may impact yields and create harvest issues for some of the crops, the water came at a crucial time, especially in Illinois.

“That inch of water, many farmers would probably take the wind in the corn to get the water, because it looked like we weren’t going to get any of it, and suddenly our forecast has rain for the next five out of six days,” says Ferrie. “So, it kind of broke that bubble that was holding us in the drought.”

(Farm Journal)

Soybeans weren’t spared from damage either, but Ferrie says the drink of water will also be a boost for those fields. He reports there are even soybean fields laid over from the derecho winds on Thursday.

Indiana also reported high winds, with gusts reaching 70 mph at Indianapolis International Airport. Indiana farm fields were dealt with derecho damage this week, too. Photos show corn blown over by the wind, with the later planted corn holding up better than what was planted earlier in the season this year.

Photo Courtesy: Joelle Orem, Russiaville, Indiana

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Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:41:42 GMT

It’s been the talk of the coffee shop – scientists have been forecasting the development of El Niño for months and issued the first El Niño Watch on April 13. In the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monthly outlook released on Thursday, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, meaning El Niño conditions are now present and expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, but the impacts on the climate extend far beyond. The natural climate phenomenon occurs on average every two to seven years.

“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” says Michelle L’Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño . For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”

El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is expected to be weak during the summer months and then become more pronounced in late fall through spring. By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño, and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing.

Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California up the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Niño winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.

While most headlines highlight how El Niño can bring historic heat around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

Since 1970, Snodgrass says there have been 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had yields slightly above trendline.

“This means we generally think of El Niño summers having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms,” says Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions.

While El Niño will likely lead to additional wet weather across the southern tier of the country, including the Southern Great Plains, Brad Rippey, U.S. analyst and drought monitor author for USDA, says the recent rain in Texas can’t necessarily be linked to El Niño-related rainfall.

El Niño isn’t to blame for the current drought problems across the U.S. either, he adds. An extremely stubborn atmospheric block of high pressure is situated across northern Canada, which is effectively keeping cold fronts from reaching the Midwest or the Northeast.

“It keeps tropical moisture from working its way up from the South, and it serves as almost a complete block on rainfall reaching some of the nation’s key agricultural areas,” he describes. “Until that block breaks down, we will not see appreciable rain.”

Rain Or Drought? What to Expect from the Weather Following the End of La Niña?

Wed, 08 Feb 2023 17:53:29 GMT

After three years of La-Niña-driven weather, scientists at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) say the cold water along the equatorial Pacific is showing signs of warming. The CPC in January said there’s now an 82% chance for ENSO-neutral by spring.

“It will take a period of a few months for the pattern to completely break down but in the process, we will have opportunities for breaks from the pattern that’s been so prevailing,” says Drew Lerner, president at World Weather Inc. “As La Niña diminishes, we will lose that persistent below-normal-precipitation bias.”

That is good news for Argentina, along with winter wheat country, the Southwest and California in the U.S.

“Soil moisture going into spring is an understated but impactful driver of seasonal weather,” says Kirk Hinz, a meteorologist at BAMwx.com. “If we start dry, it’s easier to end dry. If we go through the spring wetter, then we’re more likely to retain that kind of pattern.”

RETURN OF 2012?

These transition years can be hard to predict, Hinz says. The modern mark remains 2012.

“The year before was a La Niña and as we went into the summer of 2012, it was just below an El Niño,” Hinz says. “This isn’t one-to-one, but we are trending in a similar direction (towards a more ENSO-neutral pattern) and we are at a pivotal point over the next 30 to 60 days.”

While an El Niño is often associated with better chances for rain throughout the Southwest and Plains, the CPC says there’s less than a 40% chance it arrives between June and August.

“When we’re talking about the La Niña relaxing, it isn’t all about going to El Niño,” says Brian Bledsoe, chief meteorologist at KKTV 11 in Colorado Springs. “A lot of times it’s just about not dealing with La Niña or El Niño and being neutral for a little bit, which allows us to see better moisture.”

WATCH THE PDO

The ENSO twins aren’t the only influences in town but they tend to be the loudest. However, as La Nina ends, both Lerner and Bledsoe say they’ll watch the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for clues.

“A strongly negative PDO allows for more troughing to come into the west coast and if you put a trough of low pressure in the western part of North America, in the middle of the country, you put a ridge of high pressure,” says Lerner.

He says while rains are likely to fall this spring, if a negative PDO prevails, the Midwest is likely to go right back into a dryer bias during summer.

“As of December, we were at 17 months in a row of what I call a strong, negative PDO,” says Lerner. “We haven’t had 17 months of strong negative PDO and our recorded history [going back to 1950].”

(Farm Journal)

“The PDO operates on a 25-to-30-year cycle and so since the late 90s It’s been in a cold and negative phase,” Bledsoe said.

Research confirms the impact. According to one study , in the southwestern U.S. 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800.

“We have to get the PDO to flip to at least a short-term warm phase to really capitalize on the moisture,” said Bledsoe. “While it’s quite negative right now I do see some evidence that it could possibly flip, if nothing else, to a less negative or even neutral phase, by later this year.”

He says, looking at historical patterns, a more positive PDO is due to arrive anytime.

“Once you see it change you need to do everything you can to capitalize on that moisture,” said Bledsoe, who grew up in a ranching family in southeast Colorado.

First Thing Today: South American Growing Season Off to a Slow Start Amid Adverse Weather

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 04:42:17 GMT

Good morning!

Futures favoring the upside after a choppy overnight session... Corn futures saw two-sided trade overnight and as of 6:30 a.m. CT the market is around a penny higher. Soybeans are narrowly mixed after holding to a narrow, choppy range overnight. Winter wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, while spring wheat is again mixed. The U.S. dollar index is under light pressure, while crude oil futures are posting slight gains.

PF CCI: Corn and bean ratings fall... When USDA’s crop ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the corn crop the corn crop fell 1.61 points to 357.01 points. Soybean ratings fell 2.24 points over the past week to 346.67 points. Get details here .

Cordonnier leaves crop pegs unchanged... Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier made no change to his U.S. corn or soybean yield estimates which stand at 166 bu. per acre and 48 bu. per acre, respectively. He said late-summer heat is helping the corn crop, though maturity still lags. But he adds dryness is a concern for the central Corn Belt for both crops. Soybean development is running pretty lose to normal, so he says further rains will have limited benefit. He has a neutral bias going forward toward both corn and soybeans.

Hot and dry weather delays soybean planting in Brazil... While the soybean-free period has passed in Brazil, Cordonnier reports planting efforts are on hold across central Brazil as temperatures have been in the upper 90s to low 100s and there has been virtually no rain over the past month. Farmers in this region typically like to wait until they receive between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall to insure germination and emergence, he explains. Conditions have also been warm and dry in southern Brazil, and what few fields have been planted there are having germination problems. In his first forecast for 2017-18, Cordonnier estimates soybean acreage will climb 2.5%, but a return to normal yields will result in a 4.3% reduction in crop size to 109 MMT. He expects the Brazilian corn crop to fall both in terms of yields and acreage, resulting in an 88.0 MMT crop for 2017-18, down 10% from the year prior.

Wet weather raising some acreage concerns in Argentina... In stark contrast, Cordonnier reports that wet weather in Buenos Aires and La Pampa has raised concerns that these areas may not dry out in time for normal spring planting, especially for corn. Cordonnier took an initial stab at the Argentine 2017-18 crop size, cautioning that these are just “educated guesses at this point” that will likely change. He pegged the Argentine soybean crop at 55.0 MMT, down 4.8% from year-ago, with the corn crop expected to total 42.0 MMT, up 2.4% from 2016-17.

Stretch of Illinois River closed due to low water. A one-mile stretch of the Illinois River near the La Grange Lock and Dam has been closed after three vessels became grounded in the area due to low water, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The area could be closed for several days as a dredging vessel is not expected to arrive until late Wednesday or early Thursday, according to Corps spokeswoman Sue Casseau. There were six downriver-bound and four upriver-bound vessels waiting to pass as of Monday afternoon.

Trump to focus on sovereignty and accountability at his first U.N address... President Donald Trump is expected to stress “sovereignty and accountability” rather than joint action on global crises in his address to the United Nations General Assembly this morning. He is also expected to focus on the Iran nuclear deal and the nuclear standoff with North Korea. In brief remarks on Monday, Trump said the U.N. had grown too bureaucratic and ineffective and should overhaul itself, but gave no clue as to whether he would cut U.S. funding. Trump called for management and budget reform of the U.N., as well as greater burden sharing among its members for peacekeeping duties.

Slow Chinese corn sales could lead to a supply crunch... Concerns about a short-term supply shortage in China have sparked an aseasonal rally in its corn market, as farmers there are changing their marketing patterns due to the elimination of its price support program for the grain. Previously, farmers would sell their corn crop at a minimum price to the government who stockpiled the grain. But now they are paying more attention to price fluctuations and those with storage options are opting to delays sales as they feel prices will be better later. Concerns about a tight supply are heightened by drought early in the season that delayed planting for some areas.

Lighthizer: China an unprecedented threat to trading system... China’s economic model represents an “unprecedented” threat to the world trading system that can’t be addressed under current global rules, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer said Monday in a speech in Washington. “There is one challenge on the current scene that is substantially more difficult than those faced in the past, and that is China,” he continued. “The sheer scale of their coordinated effort to develop their economy, to subsidize, to create national champions, to force technology transfers and to distort markets in China and throughout the world is a threat to the world trading system that is unprecedented.” The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the rules that underlie the international trade arbitrator weren’t designed to deal with China’s current approach to its economy, he said.

NAFTA talks moving at ‘warp speed’... Regarding NAFTA 2.0 talks with Canada and Mexico, whose third meeting to revise the deal will take place from Sept. 23-27 in Ottawa, Lighthizer has said the U.S. is seeking a major overhaul of the deal that will benefit American workers. “We’re moving at warp speed, but we don’t know if we’ll get to a conclusion,” Lighthizer said. He declined to answer questions about the United States’ proposal to add a “sunset” provision to a revised NAFTA deal, which would require the agreement to be terminated after five years unless all three countries agree to continue.

EU to cut import tariffs on Argentine biodiesel tomorrow... The European Union will lower its import duties on biodiesel from Argentina from a range of 22.0% to 25.7% to 4.5% to 8.1% on Wednesday, the bloc confirmed. This comes after the World Trade Organization ruled against the duties. Prior to the tariff hike in 2013, the EU had been Argentina’s top customer, and its return as a buyer is especially timely since the U.S. recently hiked tariffs on the Argentine biofuel.

Friendly cash signals... Early cash signals are promising for another week of gains for the cash cattle market as showlist are down a net 18,000 head, packers continue to enjoy strong profit margins and the boxed beef market posted solid gains to start the week, though movement was fairly light. But negotiations have extended late into the week of late, which could lead to more choppy futures price action, especially since they are already trading at a premium to last week’s average cash price of $105.97.

Cash hog market concerns linger... Some lean hog contracts faced profit-taking to start the week, as traders were unable to sustain early gains above near-term levels of resistance. Plus traders remain concerned that the ongoing slide in the cash hog market limits upside potential for futures. Cash hog bids softened to start the week.

Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased around 69,000 MT of corn to be sourced from optional origins. Japan tendered to buy 127,427 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in its regular tender. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers. Jordan made no purchase in its tender to buy 100,000 MT of feed barley.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
11:00 a.m., Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook: September 2017 -- ERS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS