CROP PRODUCTION

Will the U.S. Corn Crop Bake In the July Heat? What You Need to Know About the July Forecast

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:03:38 GMT

The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.

Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.

With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.

“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Rain Chances in July

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook . NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.

Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.

“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”

Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.

“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.

According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.

“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.

Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.

“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”

The July Heat

What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.

“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”

30-day temperature outlook

(CPC )

Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.

“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”

Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.

This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.

Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.

“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.

He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.

“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”

Suicide Prevention Month: Your Worth Isn’t Measured By the Markets

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:03:07 GMT

Farmers, ranchers and producers have taken an emotional rollercoaster ride in 2019. Between the trade war and relentless weather, producer outlooks are waning.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer, released by Purdue University and the CME Group, showed a dramatic downturn in producer sentiments, with the August reading falling to 124. The August reading is a 29-point drop from July.

The emotional toll of farming today is weighing on many farmers and ranchers. This is sparking serious conversations about suicide and mental health in an industry that the Centers for Disease Control states has a suicide rate of double that of the general population.

When the unthinkable happens

Katie Lyons grew up on an Illinois farm and saw first-hand how depression can change farm families.

“When I was younger, he was always out playing with us in the yard having fun,” said Lyons, reflecting on what it was like growing up with her father on the farm. “We used to go swimming and do a lot of different activities and I try to hold those memories close because that’s all I’ve got left.”

Today, Lyons clinches onto pictures and memories of her father, after the unthinkable changed their family forever.

“My dad decided to take his life in 2013 after a long bout of depression and anxiety on the farm, so it’s definitely had an impact on my life,” she said.

Lyons said depression was something her dad battled for years, but when they would address it, she said her dad didn’t want to discuss what was going on.

“It just gradually got worse and worse and worse, to the point where he just couldn’t do it anymore,” said Lyons. “He decided that the only option was to take his life.”

That day took Lyons’ life on a sharp turn and she knew she had to make something good out of so much heartache.

“It wasn’t until after that happened that I realized how important it was and that we really should have had a lot of have stronger, different conversations than what we had been having leading up to it,” she said.

Ag is different

Adrienne DeSutter is a farm wife, a mom and specializes in behavioral heath, specifically in agriculture wellness. She said while mental health has many stigmas, agriculture is unique.

“Farmers are some of the best caregivers in the world,” said DeSutter. “They care for crops, they care for land and they care for their animals, but they’re not always the best caregivers of themselves.”

DeSutter said farmers are naturally selfless, ambitious individuals who rarely rely on others to fix something wrong on the farm, that makes it hard to reach out when they need help with issues like depression.

“They’re excellent at recognizing when an animal needs some intervention, but they’re self-reliant,” she said. “They want to do things themselves—they want to be the fixers and find the find the solutions.”

Know the signs

Both Lyons and DeSutter say there are warning signs to watch when it comes to mental health and someone possible considering taking their own life.

“He’d become very detached,” said Lyons talking about her father. “He’d taken himself out of a lot of different organizations that he’d previously been involved with. He didn’t get he didn’t do a lot of extracurricular activities. It was basically go to work, come home, go to bed type activities.”

DeSutter said those signs or changes in behavior are different person-to-person.

“This is not a secret formula, she said. “This is not something that looks the same for everyone. We’re just looking for something that has changed, or multiple things that have changed. Specifically, at the farm, you might find, you know that that livestock is being cared for less or that you might see things looking a little more rundown than normal.”

DeSutter said if any of these signs are starting to creep into the picture, the first step is to ask your primary care physician for help. The doctor can then refer you on to a specialist.

She said there are also other steps an individual can take to help improve the situation and relieve the stress and burden caving in.

“Just expand your life beyond agriculture,” she said. “Find a book club or find a card club or have some friends that aren’t related to agriculture, just so that you can have a break, because that’s the uniqueness of farming is it’s a career, but it’s a lifestyle too.”

September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month; a topic becoming much more widely talked about in agriculture today.

It’s also an initiative Bayer’s Acceleron seed treatment brand launched this year, called “ Farm State of Mind .”

“We look at mental health, and we look at stressors in agriculture is kind of that elephant in the room really,” said A.J. Hohmann, marketing manager for Bayer seed growth. “Let’s talk about it; let’s try to remove that negative stigma that’s associated with mental health in agriculture, and let’s just start the conversation. Let’s try to find inspiration for others who are maybe dealing with stress and mental health of their own.”

He said Acceleron is partnering with mental health experts and dedicated a website to the topic. It provides advice and tools to help navigate through such a tough situation.

“We want folks to talk about it,” said Hohmann. “We want to remove that stigma associated with mental health, and is that going to happen overnight? No, absolutely not. Is that going to happen just during the planting season, throughout the growing season? No, this is something we needed to be talking about year-round.”

Acceleron is inviting farmers to share their stories on Twitter, using #farmstateofmind.

Start the conversation

The growing awareness surrounding mental health was also on the mind of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue during Farm Progress Show last week in Illinois.

“Any time there’s economic stress in the ag community or any sector, there’s anxiety,” he said. “There’s emotional distress, and it affects families and it affects communities.”

The open conversations about mental health and suicide within agriculture is a welcomed change for Lyons, who is still coping with the loss of her father.

“It’s hard because there’s a huge stigma around mental health,” she said. “We think it’s a weakness or something is wrong with us, but it’s a true medical condition. It’s just like cancer, just like anything else out there that we have going on with us. Sometimes we have to get help. And it’s, it’s hard to admit that sometimes. I want to make sure people know there’s resources out there, because I don’t want this to happen to another farm family.”

Remember You Matter

As the weight of challenges in agriculture get heavier, DeSutter has one plea: remember you matter.

“If you are sitting at home right now, and you feel like depression is overwhelming you and you feel that sense of worthlessness and that sense of hopelessness, I just need you to know that your worth is not measured by the markets,” she said. “It’s not measured by your farm. You are a valuable person and what your mind is telling you right now that you’re a burden, that’s a lie. That’s a condition that’s taking over, and that’s your brain that needs some help. So, I just urge you to reach out talk to anyone that will listen.”

Those sentiments are something Lyons echoes, as loved ones left behind continue to grieve for years after a loved one is gone.

“My family went through a lot and still goes through a lot today,” she said. “It’s not something that just goes away, when you figure out how to live your life, we’re continually grieving even six years later, and so I want people to know that there are ways to get help, and there are resources out there and options so you don’t have to go down this path.”

Lyons said after her dad died, her family was forced to make some really tough decisions on the farm. They even sold portions of the farm, and at a more manageable level, her brother and family are still farming today.

She said knowing when it’s time to walk away is what helps keep her family going, as well as remembering to enjoy the little things in life.

First Thing Today: Brazil Already Close to Breaking Soybean Export Record

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 04:42:10 GMT

Good morning!

More pressure overnight... Corn futures are trading low-range and down around 4 cents as of 6:30 a.m. CT as traders respond to USDA’s higher-than-expected crop condition rating. Soybeans are down 4 to 5 cents amid favorable weather forecasts and ongoing unease about trade relations with China. Wheat futures are roughly 3 to 6 cents lower, with spring wheat harvest moving toward half complete. The U.S. dollar index is moderately higher, while crude oil futures are posting slight losses.

Slight improvement in corn and soybean ratings... When USDA’s crop ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the corn crop climbed 2.68 points to 360.17 points. Ratings climbed in the major “I states.” The soybean CCI rose 0.80 points to 349.16 points, with steady to higher ratings in most Midwest states helping to offset a decline in Iowa. Get more details .

Cordonnier feeling a bit more optimistic about crop prospects... Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his national average corn yield estimate of 163.5 bu. per acre, noting that beneficial rains fell in Iowa and the Dakotas in recent days and Iowa is slated to receive more rain later this week. But he also noted that he thinks USDA is too optimistic with its 169.5 bu. per acre yield peg and that a lower figure is likely for September. Cordonnier also maintained his soybean yield estimate at 46.5 bu. per acre, again noting beneficial rains for the western Corn Belt and especially Iowa. He now has a neutral bias toward both corn and soybeans and says that if this week’s rainfall is heavy and widespread in areas that need it most, he may increase both crop pegs.

NOPA expected to report an uptick in crush from June... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will likely report they crushed 143.004 million bu. in July, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters. This would be a decline from July 2016 when NOPA members crushed 143.715 million bushels but up 4.93 million bushels from June. Soyoil stocks at the end of July are expected to come in around 1.623 billion lbs., down from 1.703 billion lbs. at the end of June.

Brazil already close to breaking bean export record... Brazil has sold 53.37 MMT of soybeans for export through the second week of August, already topping 2016’s total exports by 3.5%, according to preliminary data from the country’s development ministry. This also signals Brazil should have no trouble breaking its 2015 soybean export record of 54.3 MMT. Brazil’s oilseed industry association expects the country to export 64 MMT of beans this calendar year.

Preliminary dumping decision in Argentine, Indonesian biodiesel case delayed...Commerce Department officials will wait a little longer in deciding whether producers/exporters from Argentina and Indonesia are dumping biodiesel in the U.S. market. Commerce extended the deadline for issuing a preliminary determination from Aug. 30 to no later than Oct. 19 at the request of the National Biodiesel Board Fair Trade Coalition and its members — petitioners in the probe as well as a companion subsidy case. The investigations could result in duties on the investigated imports, but that outcome is not assured. The U.S. imported $1.6 billion of biodiesel from the two countries in 2016. While the coalition filed for extensions for both the anti-dumping and subsidy cases, the extension only applies to the dumping case. Preliminary decisions in the subsidy cases are on track for Aug. 22.

Fed’s Dudley favors another rate rise this year... Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said it isn’t unreasonable to expect an announcement on how the Federal Reserve plans to reduce its $4.5-trillion balance sheet in September, adding that he would be in favor of another rate hike this year if the economy holds up. Dudley also weighed in on the race for the position of Fed chair, saying former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn was a “reasonable candidate” for the job. Minutes from the July policy meeting, which may give some hint as to the FOMC’s plans, will be published tomorrow.

India will challenge any U.S. action in WTO poultry dispute... Indian trade officials are prepared to challenge any U.S. effort at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose trade sanctions on New Delhi over the poultry dispute between the two countries. The topic could be decided on Aug. 19 at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, where India plans to block the U.S.'s retaliatory action. The WTO is considering a U.S. request to sanction $450 million in annual retaliatory trade measures against India until it complies with a 2015 ruling. India and some other WTO members are concerned that Washington’s request for retaliation before seeking a compliance investigation does not adhere to the proper sequencing of the WTO dispute process.

Traders may have factored in too big of a cash price drop... While traders have a negative bias toward this week’s cash cattle prospects, the $6-plus discount the August contract holds to last week’s action that took place at an average price of $115.17 is likely overdone. Showlist estimates are up 11,000 head this week, as gains in Nebraska more than offset reductions elsewhere. Boxed beef prices were mixed to start the week.

Strong hog slaughter numbers to start the week... Pork movement was lackluster to start the week on a 7-cent decline in the pork cutout value. With supplies expected to build heading into fall, pork movement and slaughter numbers take on added importance. On a more positive note, Monday’s kill of 446,000 head was up 18,000 head from year-ago levels.

Overnight demand news... Jordan’s issued an international tender to buy 100,000 MT of barley.

Today’s reports:

2:00 p.m., Feed Grains Yearbook tables -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Turkey Hatchery -- NASS