Farm Economy

The Shrinking Slice: Farmers Receive Less Than 6 Cents of Every Food Dollar

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:45:07 GMT

For the past two years, USDA has estimated farmers and ranchers received less than 6 cents of every food dollar. In 2023, that was 5.9 cents, and using the latest data from 2024, it’s 5.8 cents.

“Our oldest data point right now is 2007 [USDA updated the data series] and that’s 14.7 cents per dollar, and now we’re down all the way to 11.8 cents per dollar,” says Faith Parum, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “So we’ve really seen that decline year after year. It reflects how much of the value of things in the grocery store or when you go out to eat is going to other parts of the supply chain and not necessarily to farmers and ranchers.”

Livestock vs. Crops: A Widening Gap

The aggregate decline masks a widening gap between sectors. While the overall farmer share is down, livestock and crop producers are seeing divergent trends:

Crop Farmers: Share dropped from 2.9 cents to 2.5 cents (a 2.5% year-over-year decrease).
Livestock Producers: Share increased from 3 cents to 3.3 cents.

“Overall, the farmer share is down. But we have those two markets really at odds,” Parum says. “We’ve seen that tale of two farm economies where our livestock producers maybe have seen a little bit of better days than they had had in the past, while our row crop farmers and our specialty crop farmers are really facing strong headwinds in the market.”

Effect at the Farm Gate

As highlighted by USDA, farm finances are quickly strained when farmers/ranchers are capturing a small percentage of the food dollar and even modest swings in commodity prices and/or input prices take place.

Parum adds, “when we talk about the health of our farms and the health of future generations on the farm, and being economically viable and sustainable and being able to keep their operations open, the trends we’re seeing right now are really hard for those farmers. Our ranchers are seeing a little bit of better days right now with high beef prices, but that’s not going to last forever, and with production expenses continuing to increase, we’re really going to see that that question come up of, what is sustainable if, if these dollars we’re spending in the grocery store aren’t making it back to our farmers.”

Where Does the Money Get Distributed?

The key takeaway: farmers produce the raw commodities that make food production, however, the price is clearly more determined by what happens after the products first leave the farm.

The USDA Food Dollar Series tracks how each dollar is spent by consumers and then divides it across the industries contributing to the value in the supply chain, such as farming, food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retail and food service. As noted by the USDA, with each step in the process, the additional services, labor, transportation and infrastructure add value and increase costs to the final food product.

USDA’s Economic Research Service Food Dollar Series shows in 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, the remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the ‘marketing bill’, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing and food service. Over time, this shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farm production itself.

Groceries Leave the Most on The Table For Farmers

Farmers’ share of consumer food spending varies widely depending on the type of food purchased. For example, the farm share of the food-at-home dollar was 18.5 cents in 2024, up slightly from 18.4 cents in 2023. But even in this category it means only than one-fifth of what consumers spend on groceries goes back to farmers.

As you may expect, products with minimal processing, require less of the value to be retained in that part of the food system, and therefore return a larger share of the food dollar to producers.

“The highest commodity that gets the most of that food dollar is fresh eggs,” Parum notes. “That’s just because there’s limited labor to process that food.”

Examples include:

Fresh Eggs: 69.1 cents (+6% from 2023)
Beef: 52.2 cents (+4.8%)
Fresh Milk: 50.8 cents (+5.6%)
Pork: 23.7 cents (+7.2%)
Poultry (+3.1%)
Fish (+2.8%)
Tree nuts and peanuts (-1.7%)
Fresh fruits and vegetables (unchanged)
Bakery Products: 4.8 cents (-9.4%)
Soft Drinks/Bottled Water: 1.3 cents (-7.1%)

Economists Forecast Farm Economy to Stabilize, But High Costs and Policy Uncertainty Block a 2026 Rebound

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:26:38 GMT

As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.

The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.

“There’s cautious optimism,” the economists say, “but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.”

Those themes mirror the perspective of Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. In a recent interview, Meyer connected the dots between narrow margins, policy responses and what might actually move the dial for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026.

Stabilizing, Not Recovering

December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength.

54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago.
Compared with a year ago:
- 42% say conditions are worse
- 33% say they are better
Looking ahead 12 months:
- 46% expect conditions unchanged
- 38% expect improvement
- 15% expect conditions to worsen

“Momentum has improved since mid-2025,” Meyer notes, “but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses.”

He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments , it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.

“Purdue had a good survey about a month ago, where they looked at what were these payments going to go to, and research would show that a lot of these payments go into long-term assets, and so land tractors, but I think over 60% of producers right now are in such a tight cash crunch that you’re going to see a lot of these payments go into that short-term debt,” Gardner says.

Consolidation a Growing Threat

Economists are nearly unanimous that the crop sector remains under extreme financial stress. 83 percent say row crops are currently in a recession. That isn’t about production declines — acres and yields haven’t collapsed — but about persistently weak profitability.

“Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops,” one economist wrote in the survey.

Another said: “Margins remain below full costs of production for many producers.”

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Meyer traces that back to how abruptly agriculture moved from the high prices of 2021 and 2022 into today’s tighter margins.

“We moved very quickly from a very high price environment and good profitability in 2022 to very tight margins,” he says. “That usually happens coming off price peaks, but this time it happened really rapidly.”

A minority of survey respondents argued farms are “treading water,” supported by strong land values and government aid rather than eroding further, which Meyer acknowledged aligns with how risk and safety nets have interacted this year.

But when you look at how the current stress in the farm economy could impact consolidation, the ag economists say it’s the economic pressure combined with demographic trends causing the acceleration. In fact, 92% of them say consolidation is underway and unavoidable.

“Markets go to the lowest-cost producers,” one economist wrote. “That sorting is consolidation on the production side.”

Aging producers exiting and rent-heavy operations under pressure only add fuel to that trend, with one economist saying: “Consolidation happens because producers have to exit, not because they want to.

What’s Driving the Farm Economy Right Now

When economists were asked to identify the two most important factors shaping agriculture’s economic health today, their responses clustered around a familiar, but increasingly sharp, divide: strong demand in livestock and the protein sector versus persistent oversupply and cost pressure in crops, all layered with trade and policy uncertainty.

Several economists pointed to continued strength in beef demand, both domestically and through export channels, as a key stabilizing force. While the dairy sector is an area that shows signs of weakness for 2026.

“Livestock revenues are a bright spot,” one respondent noted, underscoring why the livestock sector continues to outperform crops financially.

Looking to 2026, economists overwhelmingly point to input costs, not interest rates, as the biggest barrier to profitability. Nearly 70% cited input prices as the largest challenge as well, far ahead of trade concerns or capital availability.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

“We have too much supply and not enough demand for row crops,” one economist wrote.

Another said: “Input costs are still too high.”

Trade remains a central wild card, especially relationships with China and uncertainty around global supply. Several respondents cited trade disputes and agreements as critical factors, along with questions about the size of South American crops and how that could shape global competition in the months ahead.

Policy uncertainty was also featured prominently, with economists pointing to domestic biofuels policy, government payments and broader market signals as factors influencing both short-term cash flow and longer-term demand growth.

Overall, economists say the ag economy is being pulled in opposite directions: strong livestock demand providing support, while crops struggle under high costs, oversupply and unresolved trade and policy questions — a dynamic that helps explain why the broader farm economy feels stable, but far from healthy, as 2026 approaches.

Livestock: A Continued Bright Spot

Livestock continues to stand out as the most financially healthy segment of the ag economy. Every economist surveyed rated beef as above average or excellent, supported by strong domestic demand and tight supplies. Dairy and pork were viewed as stable to moderately strong.

That success creates a stark contrast with row crops, where corn and cotton were cited by 38% each as the commodities most at risk financially in 2026.

What Could Move Crop Prices in the Next Six Months

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, economists say crop prices will hinge less on domestic fundamentals and more on global supply, trade flows and policy clarity.

Across responses, South America emerged as the dominant influence, with economists repeatedly citing Brazilian weather, the size of the South American harvest and how those supplies compete with U.S. exports. Several noted that clarity around South American production will be critical in setting price direction for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Trade, particularly with China, remains another key swing factor. Economists emphasized not just the announcement of trade agreements, but whether purchases translate into actual shipments.

“China purchases of U.S. crops, but also if and when actual shipments occur,” one respondent noted, adding that details within any trade deal, including purchase commitments, will matter just as much as headlines.

Domestic factors still play a role, but economists see them as secondary in the near term. Input prices, early U.S. planting conditions and assumptions about 2026 acreage were all cited as important — especially as markets begin to trade expectations for next year’s crop mix.

Policy uncertainty also hangs over the outlook. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around trade policy, biofuels policy and broader economic conditions as variables that could amplify or mute price moves.

Economists say crop prices over the next six months are likely to be driven by how global supply unfolds, whether export demand materializes and how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved, rather than by any single domestic production shock.

Biofuels Policy: A Potential Turning Point?

One of the clearest themes Meyer highlights as a possible game changer for demand, and ultimately prices, is biofuels policy.

For economists, policy levers like year-round E15, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, 45Z investment tax credits and how small refinery exemptions are handled could meaningfully influence demand for corn and soybeans in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s one of the places where policymakers actually have levers to help with tight margins in the row crop sector,” Meyer says.

He emphasizes that final rules on RFS volumes and how biobased credits are implemented could impact feedstock demand.

“For the next couple of crop seasons, RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) and how EPA reallocates small refinery exemptions are big factors,” Meyer says. “Should we raise the RVO to soak up that pool like a sponge? Should imported feedstocks get full 45Z credit? Those decisions could move demand.”

On year-round E15, a long-sought policy priority for corn growers, Meyer is cautiously optimistic.

“I do think it matters,” he says. “Maybe it’s not a huge swing this year, but offering certainty and building demand over multiple seasons is supportive. Other countries like Brazil are ramping up their biofuels production too, so this isn’t happening in a vacuum.”

Policy Uncertainty Still Looms

Economists also flagged top priorities for 2026 policy action:

Year-round E15 (row crops)
Trade policy clarity (row crops & livestock)
Labor reform and regulatory issues (livestock)

They also highlighted under-covered risks, which include pressure on land rents and values, labor shortages, biofuels policy details (such as 45Z credits) and slower population growth affecting long-term demand.

What Could Move Livestock and Dairy Prices in the Next Six Months

When economists look ahead to livestock and dairy markets in early 2026, they see a mix of strong demand signals, supply-side risks and policy uncertainty shaping price direction.

Consumer demand remains the cornerstone of the outlook, particularly for beef. Several economists pointed to continued buying interest from U.S. consumers as the primary support for cattle prices, even as affordability pressures rise. At the same time, some warned that a more “K-shaped” economy could begin to shift demand, pulling some consumers away from beef and toward pork.

Supply dynamics and herd trends are another major focus. Economists cited herd size, potential herd expansion and the availability of feeder cattle as critical variables. The expected resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico was highlighted as a key factor that could influence cattle supplies and pricing, depending on timing and volume.

Animal health risks also remain on the radar. Issues such as avian influenza, screwworm and other disease threats were mentioned as potential disruptors that could quickly alter supply conditions in both livestock and dairy markets.

Policy and trade uncertainty continues to hover over the sector. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around tariffs, restrictions on live animal trade with Mexico and the next steps under the USMCA as factors that could impact both imports and exports. Political uncertainty more broadly was also cited as a potential source of market volatility.

For dairy, economists noted that beef-on-dairy dynamics are likely to continue weighing on milk prices by increasing beef supplies while complicating dairy herd decisions.

Taken together, economists say livestock and dairy prices over the next six months will be driven by a delicate balance between strong consumer demand, evolving supply conditions and unresolved trade and policy questions, with any shift in one of those areas capable of moving markets quickly.

Acreage Expectations: Stress, Not Shock

Despite margin pressure, economists do not expect dramatic acreage pullbacks in 2026. Most expect:

Corn: 93 to 95 million acres
Soybeans: 84 to 86 million acres
Wheat: 44 to 45 million acres
Cotton: 9 to 10 million acres

Corn acreage expectations have edged lower since November, as economists backed away from another year above 95 million acres. At the same time, soybean acreage expectations have firmed, with 75% now targeting 84 to 86 million acres, suggesting stronger relative economics for beans.

“Export demand has helped keep corn acres supported,” Meyer says. “The question is whether that demand holds and whether policy supports it.”

As for acreage, the major impact on prices would be a large acreage reduction, which is unlikely.

“That’s what it comes down to, too. What I’ve been thinking about is what else can you use land for? And you’ve got the pushback on urban sprawl, you’ve got pushback on other uses for ag land. But right now, the simple fact is we’ve got way too much production. Without that slowing, or a drastic increase in demand, I don’t see prices improving to very lucrative levels,” Gardner says.

Overall, The Ag Economy Is a Grind, Not a Rebound

When you look at all the results from the December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists paint a picture of an industry that has stopped getting worse, but has not yet found a path to durable profitability.

Crops remain mired in margin compression; livestock continues to outperform but remains sensitive to policy decisions. Government aid is buying time but not addressing structural challenges, but it’s policy outcomes, especially around biofuels, trade and E15, that could be decisive in shaping 2026 outcomes.

For now, the farm economy has found a floor. The tougher question, economists say, is whether policy can help lift it, or if it will continue to grind forward without a genuine rebound.

Related News: As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Will Congressional Inaction Force Farmers to Choose Between Health Insurance and Their Farm Budget?

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 15:16:10 GMT

Healthcare insurance plans for some U.S. farmers could double in 2026, as enhanced federal subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are scheduled to expire.

The impending cost surge could affect thousands of U.S. farmers who currently rely on the ACA marketplace for their health insurance, according to the non-partisan KFF (formerly Kaiser Family Foundation), a health policy organization.

KFF estimated in 2023 that 27% of “farmers, ranchers, and other agriculture managers” relied on individual ACA market coverage. Nationally, more than 22 million Americans rely on the ACA marketplace for insurance options.

Farmers ‘Don’t Have Many Options’
Iowa farmer Aaron Lehman, who testified before Congress last week, highlighted the severity of the potential cost increase on his family. He said he expects to pay double to purchase an insurance plan for 2026 that would be comparable to what his family had this year.

“That is an incredible cost for our family budget and for our farm budget,” Lehman stated. The fifth-generation farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union described how rising healthcare costs are colliding with already harsh economic realities in agriculture.

“Farmers right now are trying to make all sorts of decisions because commodity prices are low, because of the chaotic trade situation that we’re in and higher input prices. All these things have made a real crisis for a lot of our farmers,” said Lehman.

“Finding ways to deal with that, we just don’t have too many options. Farmers will buy less equipment or not make the necessary upgrades and equipment that they need to,” he added. “They’ll look at their input suppliers, and they’ll decide, ‘what can we do to get through just this year … to get a plan to put the crop in the ground?’”

Read the testimony of Aaron Lehman here. A portion of his testimony and discussion is also featured on a posting to YouTube .

Signup Deadlines For Coverage
The challenge for farmers trying to decide on what insurance policy to purchase is compounded by the deadline to enroll in ACA marketplace plans: People needed to choose their ACA plan by Monday for coverage to begin Jan. 1. Open enrollment continues in most states until Jan. 15 for coverage beginning Feb. 1.

Despite broad public support for an extension to the ACA tax credits — a KFF poll said 74% of Americans favor continuing the enhanced credits — a congressional standoff has so far failed to produce a solution:

Failed Votes: Both a Democratic plan to extend the enhanced tax credits for three years and a Republican proposal to replace them with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) failed to pass the Senate last week.
Impending Crisis: Nearly six in 10 enrollees (across all categories) told KFF they could not afford even a $300 annual increase in 2026 without significantly disrupting household finances.
Political Fallout: The issue of healthcare costs and expiring subsidies is highly polarizing, with some Republicans warning that a failure to address the problem could cost them legislative majorities in next year’s mid-term elections.

As the deadline for open enrollment closes and the Dec. 31 subsidy expiration date approaches, farmers must prepare for substantially higher health insurance costs in 2026 unless Congress acts to reach a last-minute agreement.

Young Farmers Need Better Options
During his testimony and ensuing discussion, Lehman stressed that healthcare isn’t just a personal household issue; it’s central to the future of American farming. With the average age of an Iowa farmer at 57, he said the sector desperately needs young and beginning farmers to return to the land. But without affordable, reliable health coverage, inviting the next generation back onto the farm becomes a far riskier proposition.

“You have to be very smart to figure out the plan that can bring the next generation on the farm,” he said, adding that many talented, innovative young people want to farm, but face daunting financial barriers — healthcare high among them. He noted that one of his sons works with him on their family operation, which is based in Polk County, Iowa.

Lehman framed affordable healthcare for farm families as an investment, not a handout: a way to make it possible for young farmers to feed their communities, support local and regional food systems, or continue larger family commodity operations.

“Extending the federal support for lowering the cost of health insurance is a true win for farmers and for all of rural America,” he said.

Record-Breaking Sale: Iowa Farmland Sets New High for State at $32,000 Per Acre

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 17:18:23 GMT

An Iowa farmland auction in Sioux County, just outside Orange City, is resetting the top of the market. A 35.5-acre tract sold on Dec. 1 for $32,000 per acre, and Jim Rothermich of Iowa Appraisal says it’s the highest auction price he has recorded in the state.

“It is a 35-and-a-half-acre tract that goes for $32,000 an acre,” Rothermich says. “As far as my data goes, I keep track of all the land auctions in Iowa, that’s the highest. It set a new record yesterday in Iowa.”

He says the previous record was $30,000 per acre, also in Sioux County, set in November 2022, and he’s quick to point out that while Sioux County regularly posts some of Iowa’s biggest numbers, this one still stands apart.

“ The last record is $30,000 an acre , and that is in Sioux County also back in Nov. 11, 2022,” Rothermich says. “So it’s not unusual to see those huge prices in Sioux County. It’s a heavy livestock and dairy county. They need those acres to apply animal waste, and they need the corn production to feed those animals. So it’s not unusual to see that, but that is definitely a high price — no doubt about it.”

A Farmer Bought the Land, Not an Investor

At a time when producers are watching margins and questioning who is really driving top-end land prices, Rothermich says this record isn’t attributed to a Wall Street fund or an out-of-state investor. According to the auctioneer, the winning bidder is a farmer, and the land is positioned to fit directly into an existing local operation.

“According to the auctioneer, it is a farmer buyer,” Rothermich says. “And the highest and best use of this farm is to raise corn and soybeans. I understand it is an adjoining landowner, and there again, it’s a heavy livestock area and dairy area. There’s some large dairies just right around there, and they’re going to use that land.”

No Comment......SOLD! SOLD! SOLD! $1.13+ million or $32,000/acre; purchased by local farmer to produce corn/soybeans. pic.twitter.com/hMeCFJjvjx
— Jim Rothermich, MAI, ARA, ALC (@theLandTalker) December 1, 2025

That adjoining landowner angle matters in competitive auctions, where neighbor value — operational fit, access and scale — can turn into aggressive bidding when a tract comes up for sale.

According to a local source, that dynamic played out in this sale and helped drive the final price higher. The source told Farm Journal the winning bidder operates a large Holstein dairy heifer replacement business, and the tract for sale was located near their existing operation. But competition for the land, and the reason the price went so high, is there was a bidding war with another farmer whose property borders the 35.5-acre parcel, pushing the price well above expectations.

Investor Pressure is Still Real, Amplifying the Top End of Farmland Prices

Rothermich says he can’t say for certain whether investor bids help push the Dec. 1 price to a record. But across Iowa, he says auctioneers describe a consistent trend: Investors, often with local ties, are showing up and competing hard, sometimes forcing farmers to dig deeper for high-quality acres.

“I don’t know if that is the case [in this auction],” he says. “But just visiting with different auctioneers across the state, they’re telling me these investors with local ties, they’re in the market, and they’re pushing these farmers to buy land. Some of those investors are getting them bought, but those local farmers on high-quality land are competing with those guys, and it’s making a difference on high quality.”

In other words, even when a farmer has the winning bid, the bidding atmosphere can still be shaped by investor presence particularly on ground that fits the region’s strongest operations.

Not many $30,000+ sales, but Plenty of Big Numbers in Iowa and Surrounding States

Rothermich says he doesn’t see other Iowa auction results above $30,000 per acre so far this year, but he does track multiple sales above $20,000, including county records.

“I haven’t seen anything over $30,000 this year,” he says. “Now we have several over $20,000 an acre. As a matter of fact, in Mitchell County on Sept. 10 of this year, there is a short 80-acre tract that brings $24,400 an acre, and that is a new price record for that county.”

And Iowa isn’t alone. Rothermich says he’s collecting late-year auction results around the region that show strength continuing across multiple Corn Belt states.

“It’s not just Iowa; we’re seeing these strong prices,” he says. “South Dakota has one farm sell for $18,200 an acre. One in Illinois is $20,150 an acre; I’ve seen several over $20,000 in Illinois. Missouri: $20,000 an acre. Minnesota: a couple tracts bring $17,000 an acre. So it’s not just an Iowa thing; it’s around the surrounding states of Iowa.”

Tight Margins, Strong Land Values Comes as a Surprise

Even with improved commodity prices compared to last year, many producers still describe the current environment as belt-tightening territory: Inputs remain high, and margins are pressured.

That’s why Rothermich says the late-year auction strength, especially the steady stream of standout sales, is catching his attention.

“It does surprise me,” he says. “I am very surprised at the volume. November is typically our busiest month for land auctions, and I’ve been surprised every week in the month of November — some of the strong prices coming out.”

Key Divergence Between High Quality and Lower Quality Farmland

Rothermich says there’s no clearer evidence of a two-speed land market than what’s happening on the lower-quality end, where more auctions are failing to meet seller expectations.

He says he tallies 10 no-sales in Iowa in November, which he calls a high number for the month that typically dominates the auction calendar.

“One area where we are seeing some weakness is the lower quality farms,” he says. “Those are being affected; there’s no doubt about that. And as I say, I keep track of all the land auctions in Iowa; there are 10 no-sales in November. That’s a high number for no sales in a month. So there’s no doubt lower quality farms are being affected.”

When asked directly whether the Dec. 1 record sale signals a widening gap between premium and marginal ground, Rothermich says absolutely.

“The people that have the money to buy that high-quality ground, they’re going after it. There’s no doubt about it,” he adds.

And when it comes to why lower quality farms are more likely to stall at auction, he says the buyer pool changes, especially the presence (or absence) of investors.

“They’re on those lower quality farms,” he says. “You don’t have those local investors competing with the local farmers on that. So those local farmers are kind of driving that market on that, and they’re definitely pulling back. There’s no doubt about it.”

He ties that pullback directly to economic pressure with the weaker performance in some land values a sign of current economic stress.

What to Watch Over the Next Six Months

Rothermich describes today’s auction environment as a market with two tails: a premium segment with strong competition and a lower-quality segment facing resistance. That split makes the overall market feel uneven, even when the headlines are bullish.

“It’s kind of got two tails right now,” he says. “The high quality is selling very good, and the low quality is being affected by the current economy. So it’s kind of a choppy market. That’s how I’d describe it right now.”

Still, he says two fundamentals support stability over the next six months: lower auction volume, which tends to firm prices, and grain prices higher than last year.

“Looking at the number of auctions for November, December, we’re going to be down for the year,” he says. “And that’s been a three-year trend. Lower auction volume is supportive to prices. So as I look at current grain prices, we’re higher than we were last year. So with those two fundamentals, it’s signaling we’re probably going to have a stable market the next six months.”

He adds that good yields, though not necessarily record yield, also help underpin buyer confidence in the near term.

“The lower volume of sales, good harvest … yields are good but not as good as last year,” he says. “Grain prices are higher than they were last year, and we still have buyers out there wanting to get their hands on some high-quality farm ground.”

The $32,000-per-acre Sioux County auction isn’t just a number; it’s a marker of how aggressively buyers are pursuing top-end Iowa farmland, particularly in regions where acres fit into livestock- and dairy-driven demand. The fact Rothermich says the buyer is a farmer adjoining the tract reinforces that operational value is still a powerful force.

At the same time, the record sale lands in a market that’s increasingly divided: Premium farms draw competition while lower-quality farms see more no-sales, signaling that economic pressure is shaping buyer behavior — just not evenly across all acres.

Thanksgiving Turkey Dinner Costs Dip By 5%

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 17:35:20 GMT

As families across America prepare for their Thanksgiving celebrations next week, the 40th annual American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) survey brings some welcome news for the wallet.

The classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is projected to cost an average of $55.18, marking a 5% decrease from last year. However, this price point remains notably higher than five years ago.

A Long-Standing Tradition
Since 1986, the AFBF has tracked and reported the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal. Each year, volunteer shoppers from across the U.S. and Puerto Rico canvas local grocery stores—or their online counterparts—to record prices for a standard list of holiday staples.

The list of items surveyed for prices includes turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and pie crusts, whipping cream, and whole milk.

This year’s grocery bill highlights several price shifts. Four key items saw a drop in price: the centerpiece turkey, cubed stuffing, fresh cranberries, and dinner rolls.

Conversely, five items—sweet potatoes, frozen green peas, vegetable tray, whole milk, and whipping cream—experienced price increases. Pumpkin pie mix and pie shells remained virtually unchanged from last year’s figures.

Regional Differences Contribute To Costs
For those celebrating in the West, the classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people costs $61.75, making it the most expensive region and approximately 12% higher than the national average. Families in the Northeast also face prices above the national average, with their classic meal coming in at $60.82. The South boasts the most affordable holiday meal at $50.01, closely followed by the Midwest at $54.38.

Americans living in the West will pay, on average, nearly $10 more per meal than those living in the South.

(AFBF)

If you expand dinner options to include ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans, including these additional items elevates the total meal cost for 10 to $77.09, or $7.71 per person.

Regionally, the South again offers the lowest total at $71.20, followed by the Midwest at $76.33. Both the Northeast and the West saw a jump in cost, reaching $82.97 and $84.97, respectively. The West once more stands out, with costs higher there than in other regions.

Turkey Takes a Back Seat in the Bill
Historically, the turkey has been the undisputed heavyweight on the Thanksgiving receipt, often accounting for an average of 43% of the total dinner cost. However, in 2025, a 16-pound turkey represents only 39% of the cost for a 10-person dinner—its lowest share since 2000.

Turkey prices have dropped for consumers this year because, in many instances, retailers are using them as a loss leader to attract shoppers.

(AFBF)

A 16-pound turkey will set shoppers back an average of $21.50, reports the AFBF, a significant 16% decrease from 2024. While fresh turkey prices continue to climb as the poultry sector battles highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the prices for frozen turkeys—the preferred choice for most Thanksgiving feasts—are steadily declining.

Adding to this trend, turkey demand outside of the holiday season continues to wane, with the average American consuming only 13 pounds of turkey per year, nearly 3 pounds less than six years ago.

Side Dishes Gain Weight on the Grocery Receipt
Despite the overall dip in Thanksgiving meal costs this year, side dishes now command a larger share of the total grocery bill. Price increases for fresh produce and essential baking ingredients underscore elevated costs throughout the entire supply chain.

Items like fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes registered some of the most substantial cost increases. A veggie tray is up by more than 61%, and sweet potatoes saw a 37% jump.

Several items saw price reductions this year, helping to mitigate the overall meal cost, according to the AFBF survey. Dinner rolls are down 14.6%, stuffing is down 9%, and cranberries are down 2.8%.

Your next read: Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Ag Lenders Anticipate Only Half of U.S. Farm Borrowers to Turn a Profit in 2025

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 16:33:12 GMT

Agricultural lenders surveyed in the new 2025 ABA/Farmer Mac Agricultural Lender Survey expect only 52% of U.S. farm borrowers will be profitable this year, signaling a sharp decline from recent years. It’s also a sign producers across major crop regions are continuing to navigate through a period of tighter margins and severe financial stress.

Ninety-three percent of ag lenders expect farm debt to increase over the next year, which is up slightly from the 88% of lenders who responded that way last year. But the high number indicates there will be higher demand for farm loans, something that can be a hallmark of previous downturns.

Ag lenders top concerns.

(ABA- Farmer Mac)

Farm Economy Snapshot: Profit Pressure Returns

According to the survey, lenders say the 2025 farm economy is being shaped by soft commodity prices, high input costs and high interest rates — all working together to squeeze margins.

“This is the tightest farm income environment we’ve seen since before the pandemic,” said one ag lender from Iowa.

Ag borrower profitability by region.

(ABA-Farmer Mac Survey)

Crop producers — especially corn, soybean and cotton operations — face the most pressure due to rising costs, lower commodity prices and declining working capital.

Livestock operations, in contrast, remain relatively stable thanks to stronger protein demand and improved feed costs.

Profitability Outlook: Only Slightly More Than Half Expected to Turn a Profit

Lenders forecast that just 52% of their borrowers will remain profitable this year— the lowest level since 2016.

West: 57% expected to be profitable
Midwest: 52%
Plains: 50%
South: 45%

Ag profitability outlook according to the recent Agricultural Lender Survey

(Data provided by )

The gap reflects commodity mix: diversified or livestock-heavy regions remain stronger than grain-dominant areas.

“Margins are narrowing quickly, especially for grain producers. Working capital is eroding,” noted a Kansas lender.

Liquidity, Working Capital and Cash Flow Dominate Lender Concerns

For the fourth year in a row, lenders say liquidity is their top concern.

More than 70% report their borrowers’ working capital positions have worsened over the past year, and many expect additional deterioration in 2025.

Other leading lender concerns:

Farm profitability
Input costs
Interest rate pressure
Loan repayment capacity

“The producers who managed cash well in 2021 and 2022 are in much better shape. Others are scraping,” one Minnesota lender added.

One result of tighter profitability conditions is an expectation for increased loan demand. The survey found nearly 93% of responding lenders indicated they expect farm debt to increase over the next year. This would be only a slight increase from 2025, when approximately 88% of lenders reported an increase in farm debt.

Portfolio concerns ranked by commodity

(ABA-Farmer Mac Survey )

With an increasing demand for farm loans, the results from ABA and Farmer Mac say the rising demand for farm loans mirrors previous downturns in the farm economy.

“Ag producers were able to use cash to finance operations as farm incomes surged in 2022 and the surrounding years. However, cash has become increasingly scarce for many operations today, prompting some producers to seek new or additional loans,” according to the report. “Previous periods of tighter farm incomes have also been accompanied by greater demand to restructure debt. As lenders evaluate farm cash flows, one solution often utilized is terming out debt — that is, refinancing short-term credits into longer-term loans, thus easing the annual impact on the income statement. Indeed, the number of lenders expecting loans backed by farm real estate to increase over the next year jumped in the 2025 survey results. “

Supplemental Income and Government Payments Are Propping Up Cash Flow

More than 53% of lenders say supplemental income sources — such as wind leases, solar leases, CRP payments or recreational leases — have become critical to producers’ bottom lines.

Meanwhile, government payments still remain a meaningful revenue source for many operations:

Over 30% of lenders say government payments made up more than 25% of borrower income last year
Only about 34% consider future payments in underwriting, citing uncertainty

“Alternative revenue is keeping some operators afloat,” a western lender said. “Without government support, profitability would be substantially lower.”

Farmland Values: Holding Strong — for Now

One of the biggest surprises in 2025 is farmland values remain historically high despite tightening margins.

Farmland values rose for the fourth straight year
Two-thirds of lenders expect land values to flatten or decline in 2026
Limited supply of land for sale continues to hold values firm

Expected change in land values

(ABA- Farmer Mac Survey)

Cash rent trends show stability:

Seventy-three percent of lenders report no change in rental rates this year
Nearly 90% expect rents will remain flat or decline next year

“Land values are the pressure valve,” one Nebraska lender said. “If they slip, lenders will tighten credit quickly.”

What It Means for Farmers Going Into 2026

The survey paints a picture of an ag economy shifting into a more cautious phase. For producers, this means cash flow management remains critical and margin discipline will matter more than recent years. Grain-heavy farmers should also prepare for tighter credit conditions.

Top concerns for ag lenders in 2025.

(ABA- Farmer Mac Survey)

For lenders, the report signals underwriting standards are tightening and there seems to be more emphasis on borrower liquidity and repayment capacity. There could also be closer monitoring of collateral, especially land values.

“We’re entering a period where strong operators will be fine, but weaker ones will feel the credit squeeze,” a Texas lender concluded.

Read the full report here .

How to Get a Loan Approval: A Banker's Point of View

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 20:28:25 GMT

For most farmers, the next big project on the operation starts with a conversation with your banke, and being fully prepared before you walk into that meeting can significantly increase your chances of getting a loan approval.

Curtis Gerrits, senior lending specialist at Compeer Financial, has spent years helping producers get the financing they need. During a recent Professional Dairy Producers webinar, he shares what truly makes a loan application stand out and how farmers can set themselves up for a smoother approval process.

Get Your Financial House in Order
When preparing for a loan, Gerrits emphasizes lenders look first at clear and complete financial documentation. The process begins with the fundamentals.

“Some of the documents that are top of mind are your profit and loss statement,” he says. “Don’t just stick with the current year. Try to have access to the last three years.”

A profit and loss statement not only establishes whether a business is profitable but also helps lenders understand how the farm manages revenue and expenses over time. Gerrits encourages farmers to follow this with a current balance sheet that breaks down assets and liabilities in detail.

This balance sheet should include livestock numbers, acres owned and leased and a complete equipment list with updated values. Together, these documents paint a picture of financial health and management discipline.

For long-term planning, Gerrits stresses the importance of forward-looking projections.

“Probably one of the last things is to have a detailed projection,” he adds. “What is the business plan, and how is this going to impact your business?”

These projections help both the producer and the lender understand how an expansion, land purchase or capital improvement will affect cash flow and operational stability in the years ahead.

Details Matter
Gerrits says one of the most common pitfalls he sees is overlooking the finer points of financial reporting. Accurate and transparent records build trust and demonstrate professionalism, giving lenders greater confidence in the producer’s decision-making capacity.

“The attention to detail is probably a key thing that maybe gets overlooked from time to time,” he explains.

A lender needs to see exactly what makes up the operation’s income. This could include crop sales, livestock sales, custom work, direct-to-consumer revenue or any other streams that support the business. Clear categorization helps verify performance and gives lenders a better understanding of how the farm is managed.

Build a Strong Relationship
Beyond the numbers, Gerrits stresses the importance of working with a lender who understands the realities of farming. A loan officer familiar with agriculture can better interpret financial statements, spot trends and anticipate challenges.

“Working with a loan officer that understands your day-to-day is really important,” he says. “Having that good relationship where you can bounce ideas off of one another is a really great thing.

Gerrits also encourages producers to bring their lender onto the farm. Sometimes a walk-through can communicate more than a financial packet ever could.

“Put your boots on and take a walk through the barns and show them what you are doing and why the loan application that you are requesting is important,” he says.

Seeing the animals, the facilities and the workflow helps lenders fully understand the operation’s strengths and opportunities, and it gives them greater clarity when evaluating a loan request.

Be Honest About Tough Years
Producers should not shy away from acknowledging difficult financial periods or reporting losses on taxes. Gerrits reassures farmers that losses do not automatically disqualify them from financing.

“Do not get too hung up on the losses out there,” he explains.

A balance sheet can often show how those losses are supported or offset by strong assets, such as land, livestock or equipment equity. What matters most is transparency and context. And demonstrating that you have a plan to manage challenges and leverage your assets can build confidence with your lender.

Plan for the Future
Constant communication with your loan officer can make a big difference in the approval process. Gerrits says checking in periodically, even with a quick touch base, helps avoid surprises.

“Maybe you’ve already talked about: ‘Hey, in a couple of months we might have something come in, and I’m going to have a request for an operating line of credit,’” he says. “That way it’s already in the back of the loan officer’s mind, and they can start preparing or gathering the right information.”

A little preparation can also greatly speed up the loan process. Gerrits recommends giving your loan officer about one month of lead time before funds are needed, along with complete financial documents.

“At the end of the year, we’ll see some borrowers who need to borrow money to do some prepaids to help their tax situation,” he says. “It’s hard to turn things around because a lot of folks are coming in at the last hour. If you give them a month’s lead time with all of the information pertinent, all the financials and balance sheets, that will just help expedite it.”

Looking further ahead, Gerrits encourages producers to think generationally and begin planning for succession well before retirement becomes imminent.

“It is never too early to start a succession plan,” he says.

Early planning gives the next generation clarity about future roles and expectations, helping them prepare financially and personally for the responsibilities that lie ahead.

Own Your Numbers
Ultimately, Gerrits believes successful borrowers take responsibility for knowing and understanding every aspect of their financial position.

“Know your numbers first,” he says. “Don’t just rely on your loan officer to tell you how you are doing.”

Throughout the loan process, preparation and transparency go a long way. Clear financials, attention to detail and regular communication help your lender understand your goals, while on-farm conversations and honest discussions build trust. Being organized, consistent and informed does more than streamline an application, it helps you make better decisions, catch issues early and keep the operation moving in the right direction.

From Despair to Hope: Why a Farmer on the Brink of Suicide Chose to Keep Going

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:41:24 GMT

It’s starting to feel similar to the 1980s. Not only are farmers on the brink of financial collapse, but there’s another grim reality setting in: The number of farmers dying by suicide is on the rise, and it could be at a rate U.S. agriculture hasn’t seen since the 1980s.

Even though statistics on suicides among farmers aren’t reliable from the 1980s because many were deemed “accidents” during that time, some estimates point to more than 1,000 farmers dying by suicide during that crisis.

“Unfortunately, it just almost seems like it’s a pandemic situation. I mean, there’s a lot of it, and it’s sad,” says Brent Foreman, a farmer in Shelby County, Mo., who knows the impacts of farmer suicides all too well.

“From an agricultural perspective, there’s a lot of stress in this industry, especially now,” Foreman says. “And somebody that’s contemplating this. I would say, we as farmers, we like to try to fix things, and we’re pretty good at it, but you can’t fix everything. If you get to a point like that, please reach out to someone, a family member, a good friend. Just please try to get some help.”

Touched By Suicide Three Times

Foreman isn’t just a fellow farmer concerned about the number of farmer suicides today. He’s a life-long farmer who’s been impacted by farmers dying by suicide three times, and the first loss happened when he was just 12 years old.

“My grandfather was a wonderful man, the most important male figure in my life,” Foreman says. “It happened 54 years ago, and it leaves a heck of a hole in your heart still today.”

Sixteen years later, his younger brother died by suicide, another sudden and tragic loss where there were no signs something was wrong.

“And then just a little over two years ago, my brother-in-law, who was 68, took his life,” Foreman says. “I’m telling you, it’s a devastating thing for loved ones to have to go through. It is tough. It’s really tough.”

Foreman says with his brother-in-law, there were signs he was struggling. He tried to take his life one time, but didn’t succeed. That’s when the family tried to get him help, which he agreed to, even going in for treatment.

“We thought that things were getting better, but they weren’t,” Foreman says. “At the beginning, I consulted our preacher, and I said: ‘I need some prayer and I need some advice.’ And he said: ‘Well, I do want to tell you something. I want you to be able to be prepared if you fail. Can you handle that?’ And I said: ‘Well, what I can’t handle is if I don’t try. I have to try.’

Experiencing three suicides, all by loved ones he was extremely close to, has been devastating. Foreman says the emotions are still raw today.

“It’s tough to live with, going through that so many times,” he says. “When I was a youngster I always told myself, the hurt, that’s something I would never do to anyone else. I just made like a pact with myself that I would never do that, because I’ve seen and lived firsthand how it affects you. From a family’s perspective, the pain goes on and on; it doesn’t quit. My wife, from her perspective, I can just see it in her eyes almost daily, the devastation.”

‘When We Lose Hope, It’s a Dangerous Place to Be’

When a person loses hope, that’s when the situation turns bleak.

“Sadly, that is the end all for a lot of people,” Jolie Foreman, executive director at Shelby County Cares , says. “Hope is key. If you have hope, you can keep going. When you lose hope, it’s just a very dangerous place to be.”

Lafayette County, Mo., farmer Ethan Daehler has been there.

“It was actually 2019 was kind of my low point,” he says.

Just six years ago, this Missouri farmer hit rock bottom.

“I was pretty much just down in the dumps, ready to just give up on life,” he says. “Thank the Lord something happened that kind of changed my way of thinking.”

In his early 30s, Ethan Daehler knows what it’s like to be on the verge of suicide. In 2019, he hit a low point. But something saved him, and he hopes by sharing his story, he will reach other farmers in a similar state of mind, reminding them that life is worth living.

(Ethan Daehler, Missouri Farmer )

Battling ongoing pain from an accident and stress of work, as well as struggles with the dynamics of a family farm, it all compounded the issue and pushed Daehler to a breaking point.

“I had a full-time job at the time working for another farmer and trying to do my own small operation,” he says. “We had family issues, which happens to a lot of farmers. There is a lot that compounds into thoughts, it’s just not financial problems, and I think that’s what people need to understand.

Daehler is now proof that it’s worth finding a reason to live, and he is only sharing his story to possibly save someone who’s in a similar spot as he was in 2019.

“There’s more to life,” he says. “I’m in a tractor now, baling hay, this is my fourth cutting. This is what I kind of dreamed of. Find something you love doing.”

A Mission to Prevent Farmer Suicides

That pain is something that fueled his daughter-in-law’s work. Jolie Foreman is the executive director at Shelby County Cares , a nonprofit whose goal is to improve the quality of life for children, youth and adults.

“I knew that we were very resource poor,” Jolie says. “So when I heard that this opportunity was available, we jumped on it, and we’ve just grown from the bottom up. We are definitely grassroots. They had faith in us in what our vision was, and they invested in it.

Through a grant,Jolie’s initial focus wasn’t suicide, but as she started doing research, she discovered there was a desperate need to provide help.

“My family had been impacted by suicide, and that’s kind of why I had jumped on board in the beginning,” she says. “But once we sat down at the table and really started to dive into the names and being in a small town, we know all of those lives that have been lost to suicide up here, that the producer was the one that was struggling.”

Fall Typically Heightens the Stress and Struggles

Jolie says they are currently seeing an increase in the number of farmer suicides happening across the country. Some of that is due to the various stresses involved with farming, but she says the fall is typically when the number of suicides in agriculture rises even more.

“In the spring, there’s a lot of hope,” Jolie says. “You’re planting, you’re coming off of the year that may have been good, may have been bad, but there’s always hope in the spring. And come September, I think the stark reality starts to set in either the pricing and the yields.”

September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month , and when it comes to agriculture the facts are startling. Farmers are 3.5 times more likely to die by suicide than the general population. The suicide rate among male farmers, ranchers and ag managers is 43.7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the National Rural Health Association.

The mounting financial pressures unfolding across the agricultural economy are adding another layer to an industry that already faces one of the highest rates of suicide compared to any other profession.

“Suicide is one of those things that’s hard to put on a scale,” Jolie says. “I mean we know the lives we’ve lost. We unfortunately can’t see the lives that we’ve saved, but I do know from talking to the local ambulance district that the calls have definitely increased; 988 is a huge resource here, and those calls have gone up and increased exponentially. And just through conversations I know that that rural agricultural piece is pressing behind it.”

She says one of the most startling discoveries she’s made during her research and work is the desensitization to death among farmers. She says through various conversations, it’s a reality that’s sad but true.

It’s Not Just Financial Stress That Causes Strains on Farmers’ Mental Health

Jolie says it’s not just financial stress that causes these struggles. It’s also the fact farming comes with many stresses, and for the most part, many farmers are so isolated and might not have access to adequate healthcare.

AgriSafe says if you’re a farmer, rancher, or farmworker, you already know that your work can expose you to a variety of hazards. They believe that with proper education and access to knowledgeable health professionals, farmers can live a long, healthy, and productive life.

(The Total Farmer Health Model, AgriSafe)

According to AgriSafe’s Total Farmer Health , the financial factor is one that can compound mental health struggles, but there are other factors that lead to the risks of farmer suicides including:

Weather
Sleep
Cognition
Social
Diet
Hazards
Spirituality
Healthcare
Fitness

Signs to Watch

And for family and friends, there are signs to watch out for, including neglect of the farm or ranch or even an individual who makes a big financial moves.

“Financial moves are also huge, which is why we’ve talked to attorneys, and we also talked to the financial providers like different banks,” Jolie says. “Are they moving their money? Are they giving away prize possessions? Are they changing their wills? Are they creating a sudden will? We just want to give those resources the tools that they need just to be like, ’Are you okay?’

Daehler says his message for someone in a dark place is you’re not alone. That message is something the Foremans also wants farmers to know.

“I want them to know that we care. I want to know they feed and fuel the world, but if their bucket is empty, they can’t pour into others,” Jolie says. “It’s OK to not be OK, to talk about it, to reach out, to ask your neighbor, to not afraid if you do see something or change in behavior or more isolation. Don’t be afraid to have that conversation. And there are a lot of people that care.”

Suicide Prevent Hotlines

It’s important to remember no matter where you are, there is help. 988 is the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline .

And for farmers, there is a specific farmer crisis hotline you can call that is toll-free at 866.586.6746.

The American Farm Bureau also has a Farm State of Mind campaign which builds awareness to reduce stigma and provides access to information and resources that promote farmer and rancher mental health wellness. You can visit that list of resources here .

Is the Ag Economy in a Recession? Why Economists and Farmers Don't Agree

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 16:39:39 GMT

Fewer agricultural economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, but when you consider most major row crops are seeing four consecutive years of poor profit margins, farmers argue an agricultural recession is currently underway.

Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May .

For the 53% who think agriculture is in a recession, economists argue the poor profit margins and another year of projected negative returns mean any cash reserves are being drained.

In the July survey, economists said:

“While the BBB will raise reference prices for the ARC and PLC, current market prices remain low, and crops went in with expensive inputs, so most producers are going to have a hard time profiting under the current conditions. Losses may be lessening but it’s a tough situation for grain producers.”
“2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
“Farmers are seeing cash flow drain and lower revenues compared to the past two years.”

The negative returns projected for 2025 and 2026 aren’t just due to low commodity prices, but the fact input prices, like fertilizer, are trending higher.

The poor profitability picture is impacting nearly every major row crop in the U.S., with at least four consecutive years of negative margins when you look at just the price versus costs.

(Krista Swanson, National Corn Growers Association )

Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), says poor profitability margins are projected for every major commodity in the U.S.

“I think the big concern, especially as we turn to looking at 2026, is that we’re talking about for almost every single crop, 2026 being at least the fourth consecutive year of negative returns, and we’re not just talking about small negative returns on average, but over $100 an acre losses, and again, that’s not accounting for crop insurance or any government payments that is specifically looking at costs and returns from those grain sales,” Swanson says.

Why Some Ag Economists Argue Agriculture Isn’t in a Recession

Additional farm program payments from Congress, along with the fact land prices aren’t declining, are two reasons 47% of ag economists argue the ag economy isn’t in a recession.

In the July survey, ag economists who say the row crop side of agriculture isn’t in a recession, gave the following reasons:

“Farm program payments and strong corn exports. Land prices also do not appear to have declined, according to the August land report from USDA.”
“Although prices are currently low, production prospects are very good, supporting expected crop revenue and lowering crop cost of production per unit.”
“Prices and income are down sharply from their 2022 peak. Defining a ‘recession’ for a sector is difficult. To me, it implies a temporary downturn, but something like current prices appears more likely to be ‘the new normal’ than a temporary blip.”
Although crop farms have been facing considerable financial challenges, so far, farm finance has been sustained by cutting down on some of their working capital. I would worry about the actual (bigger) recession possibly to come. In my opinion, tariff effects will be less likely to take place immediately in this harvest season, but the shock (without negotiation scenario) will likely hit the farm input cost first, threatening farm financial health of 2026.”
“Government payments and crop insurance guarantees are removing the downside risk that would typically allow input costs to reset.”

Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf agrees a price squeeze is impacting margins for farmers, but a big piece of why he doesn’t think U.S. agriculture is in a recession is land values.

“It’s a price squeeze on the input prices versus the cost of the output prices,” Zulauf says. “But I think for the farm economy to be in a recession, you have to see some softening land prices both on the rental side and on the ownership side. And USDA just released on the first of August their latest land estimates, and I think a fair characterization of it is that land values were up, cash rent was stable to slightly up. That does not corroborate in my mind with a sector that’s in recession.”

American Farm Bureau Federal looks at how land values have trended over time. This is based on the latest UDSA NASS data.

(American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF))

USDA’s annual land survey released earlier this month shows on average, land real estate values came in at $4,170 per acre in 2025, which is a 4.3% increase from 2024.

Zulauf says you can make an argument that land values are holding steady because of government payments.

“But the point is that government payments are at least apparently keeping the land price in check,” he says. “And that’s a really big thing because of borrowing capacity and all that that goes along with asset prices.”

Not Just the Midwest and South Feeling the Financial Pinch

July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked which region of the country is seeing the most severe financial pressures impact farmers.

38% responded the Midwest
15% said the Mid-South
8% responded the West
8% also said the Northwest

“The first thing I have to remind everybody is we are incredibly diverse,” says Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist with the University of California, Davis. “So the top ag commodity in California is milk. And milk isn’t doing that bad these days in terms of prices. Beef is also a huge part of our economy. So I picked the two that are doing OK. The rest of them are struggling.”

He says from tree nuts to fruit and grapes, growers in California are also struggling with lower prices and higher costs.

He says the grape industry, especially wine grapes, are struggling with a demand problem. Tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade is also impact tree nuts and other fruits.

“Since China used to be such a big market for them, and China, you’re dealing with the government there. So you could write down what the tariffs are, and then you write down what the government policy says to the importers, and of course they’ve got their centrally planned economy. So it’s been tough on tree nuts with the loss of that Chinese market,” he says.

What to Watch Over the Next 12 Months

Economists say trade will play a major factor in the health of the ag economy over the next 12 months. It’s not just how the tariff issues are resolved, but with which countries the U.S. is able to strike trade deals.

“What happens with trade/tariffs is likely the biggest factor now and over the next 12 months across all of agriculture. I’ve made this statement in the past, but it continues to be the biggest wild card that could boost or harm the ag sector. Another factor I’m watching in the short term is crop size,” said one economist.

When asked to outline the two most important factors that could impact the ag economy over the next 12 months, economists varied in their responses, but said:

Trade negotiations
Government payments and farm safety net programs
Crop prices versus production costs
Strength in livestock markets
Biofuel policies
Interest Rates

Economists say provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill are also important to agriculture over the next 12 months.

“The two most significant drivers are the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill that will spend about $50 billion on commodity programs over the next 10 years, as well as recently announced trade deals,” said an economist in the anonymous survey. “Increased reference prices in the BBB will help support farm income, and it appears the administration is making a point of securing deals for ag as part of the trade pacts being negotiated. These both bode well for agriculture.”

Land Values ‘Remarkably Stable’ Across the Country

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 21:10:07 GMT

Halfway through 2025, land values remain stable across the country despite reverberating uncertainty in the agricultural outlook. And while zooming out to a national level values appear stable, there are some geographic areas showing decline in values.

“The USDA forecasts 2025 net farm income to be the lowest since 2020. This will likely influence producer purchasing power and investor returns, especially as input costs, commodity prices, and interest rates fluctuate,” says Paul Schadegg, senior vice president of real estate for Farmers National Company. “While balance sheets generally remain strong, any negative movements in the ag economy could quickly impact the land market.”

Ty Kreitman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve District reports that from its survey of ag lenders across its district, the average value of non-irrigated farmland declined about 2% from a year ago in the first quarter of 2025. Click here for more from Kreitman.

Commenting on demand, a majority of farmland buyers are farmers, and as such, Schadegg says farmer profitability will be the driver of future farmland value trends.

Regarding supply, the overall market has listings down 25% from the peak inventories in 2020-2021. FNC marketed more than $450 in land in the first six months of 2025. And Schadegg notes an observation that many farm landowners are choosing the stability of the investment in the land’s appreciation rather than selling the property.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reports the amount of farmland listed for sale was down during the winter and early spring of 2025 compared to 2024. For more takeaways from the Chicago Fed’s survey, click here.

Looking ahead, the survey from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank also reflects stability as lenders across that district expect farmland values to continue to be stable. Its survey includes takeaways from the second quarter, which you can find here.

Regional Updates

With its mid-year annual report, FNC managers highlight the trends of their regions.

Kansas, Eastern Colorado and Western Missouri

“High-quality farmland values from Colorado through Kansas to Missouri remain steady despite regional differences in rainfall and soil types,” says Steve Morgan, area sales manager with FNC. “Since July 2024, some tracts have sold for more than 5% above market in competitive auctions, while others have dipped slightly below last year’s prices.”

Average prices per acre:

$5,800 in Kansas
$7,500 in Missouri
$3,500 in Oklahoma

Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky

“Farms that enter the market with a high percentage of tillable acres, highly productive soil types and in areas with large farm operators will still sell for values within 90% to 95% of the range seen from 2021 to 2023. Farms with fewer tillable acres and lower-quality soils will be priced 10% to 20% below the market highs of a few years ago,” says Jay Van Gorden, area sales manager for FNC.

He says the territory has up to 30% fewer sales than the previous three-year trend, but Van Gorden says that could change to pay down debt, generate operating capital or farmer retirement.

Illinois and Wisconsin

“After a clear softening in late 2024 and early 2025, the Illinois and Wisconsin farmland markets are showing signs of stabilization, especially in regions with high soil productivity and local operator demand,” says Jim Ferguson, relationship executive at FNC. “Despite short-term caution, both sellers and buyers seem more confident than they were in late 2024 or early Q1 2025.”

Ferguson says a characteristic of today’s market is buyers and sellers are enter negotiations with “more balanced expectations.”

“This isn’t a return to the peak-level bidding wars of recent years, but it’s also not a market in retreat. Well-marketed properties with strong soils, good drainage and favorable locations are still attracting strong interest,” he says.

Dakotas and Western Minnesota

“Many expected a correction in 2024 or 2025, but the upper Midwest continues to defy that trend,” says Troy Swee, area sales manager at FNC. He cites:

a 5.7% increase in land values in South Dakota during the second half of 2024, according to Farm Credit Services.
a 1.6% rise in Minnesota for the same period, also according to Farm Credit Services.
a 10.55% increase in eastern North Dakota after two straight years of decline, according to North Dakota State University.

“Tighter balance sheets are also decreasing the number of qualified bidders at land auctions,” he says. “Still, the outlook remains steady. With harvest months away, early signs indicate another strong crop across much of the region. If that holds true, land values and cash rents are likely to stay stable through the end of the year.”

Western Nebraska, Northwest Kansas and Northeastern Colorado

Higher interest rates and lower commodity prices are not putting farmers in this region in a position to expand, says Cole Nickerson, area sales manager at FNC.

“These financial pressures have narrowed margins for many producers, resulting in more cautious land investment behavior,” he says. “As a result, we are seeing a decline in public land listings throughout the territory. Additionally, there has been a slight shift from public auction to traditional listings as sellers aim to protect their investment value.”

Nickerson says a bright spot in the geography’s land market is pasture and hay acres.

“All-time highs in feeder cattle prices, along with elevated cash rental rates, have supported strong demand for grazing land. Hardland pastures with quality fences and excellent access are attracting the most interest from buyers. Although higher cattle prices have brought positivity to the local land market, it hasn’t been enough to offset the broader decline in average land value across the region,” he says.

Recently released data from the University of Nebraska shows for the first time in six years, the state’s land values went backward. Overall, average land values declined 2% to $3,935 an acre.

Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa

When reflecting on land value trends, Chanda Scheuring, area sales manager at FNC, says the biggest question is how long can the current levels be maintained.

“As the agricultural economy has less readily available cash than in previous years, some farmers are or already have started to feel pressure from their financial lenders,” Scheuring says. “Discussions about tightening budgets and even selling a quarter of their land have been topics some local loan officers have suggested to a few of their clients.”

The buyer pool is shrinking in number of producers who have the ability to expand in the current ag economy.

Texas

With cautious optimism, Sawyer Breeding, real estate sales and ranch manager at FNC, says the fast build up in values during the COVID pandemic has tempered to more normal.

“Prices remain relatively steady, with a moderate year-over-year growth of 1.32% in 2025 for rural real estate in Texas,” Breeding says. “Properties are selling at a moderate pace, with some listings staying on the market longer than in previous years. Buyers are becoming more focused on higher-quality properties. Both buyers and sellers should approach the market with a focus on long-term value, considering factors such as land improvements, water rights and access to utilities, all of which can significantly affect a property’s desirability and worth.”

Iowa and Southern Minnesota

Supply drives the market in Iowa, says Thomas Schutter, area sales manager at FNC.

“As prices softened last year, many potential sellers chose to hold off, leading to tighter supply and a new market dynamic. With land supply down, we saw a slight uptick in prices by the end of Q1 2025. Several auctions across the state reached levels comparable to the highs of 2022 and 2023,” he says.

He says lower grain prices and strained working capital brought a resurgence of farmer leasebacks and off-market opportunities for investors in farmland.

When Farmers Can Expect the Next Round of American Relief Act Payments

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:51:12 GMT

USDA is currently in the trenches of issuing the nearly $31 billion in total disaster and emergency relief aid to farmers and ranchers in four stages. That money was appropriated by Congress as part of the American Relief Act, which was passed in December of 2024. In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal on Monday, USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton said the next round of disaster aid payments could be coming the first full week of July.

USDA began issuing the $1 billion in emergency livestock relief program payments last week, which is the latest in a series of disaster and emergency relief. Appleton told Farm Journal that instead of holding the money and issuing it all at once, USDA decided to issue the payments in four phases, as USDA wanted to get assistance out to producers as quickly as possible.

“We had ECAP (Emergency Commodity Assistance Program) , we now have the Emergency Livestock Relief Program, we’re going to have supplemental disaster relief, and then we’re going to have another emergency livestock relief program to cover the flood losses that we saw in ‘23 and ’24,” Appleton said. “So, we’re kind of doing it in stages, it should stream out all through the summer really, and so I’m hoping that that kind of can relieve some of that financial stress.”

Appleton said USDA has issued $7.7 billion out of the appropriated $10 billion in direct payments under ECAP so far, which was the first stage of payments. Sign-ups for that program began in March. USDA initially issued 85% of a producer’s projected payment, with the remaining 15% expected after sign-ups close on Aug. 15.

Just last week, USDA announced the details surrounding $1 billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program payments , which is the second phase of the American Relief Act. Those payments are being dispersed now, and it covers grazing losses due to eligible drought or wildfire events that happened in 2023 and 2024. That round of the program doesn’t require producers to sign up, as USDA is using existing information. Since the program was announced on May 29, USDA says it’s dispersed more than $641 million in payments to livestock producers who suffered grazing losses during that time.

“FSA is leveraging existing livestock forage disaster program data to streamline these payments and calculations to expedite that relief. So this was unlike most of our programs, farmers and ranchers didn’t have to go into the office to sign up,” Appleton said. “We already have the information. So those emergency relief payments were automatically issued to producers who had already had their data into their FSA office. And those payments started going out in earnest last week, so May 30.”

The next round of American Relief Act disaster aid payments is the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, which is the larger amount appropriated by Congress. Appleton told Farm Journal details surrounding those payments are being prepared now, and USDA expects to issue those payments next month. The amount of money that will go out during the next round isn’t known at this time, as a USDA official says the agency is still “working diligently to balance the needs with the available funding.”

“The larger supplemental disaster program that is part of that is making its way through the process right now at USDA and other government agencies,” Appleton said. “The timeline for that, we’re targeting to sign up farmers by the first full week in July, so maybe the week of July 7. That will be literally every crop production loss that has happened for ‘23 and ’24, and that’s just additional disaster assistance that was legislated by Congress.”

Once those payments are released, USDA’s final phase of the American Relief Act will be another emergency livestock relief program, but this covers flood losses producers saw in 2023 and 2024.

Appleton says that’s been the most difficult program to outline and detail, as USDA has never administered a disaster program for livestock that covered losses due to flooding.

“We’ve never had a disaster program for livestock that triggered on flooding, so that piece of it is going to take us a little bit longer,” she said. “And that’s something that’s another piece of this larger disaster package. It’s going to roll out later this summer, but as these programs are ready to go and ready to roll out, we’re focused on doing it as soon as we can, rather than holding them all and doing it all at once. We want to make sure as soon is the assistance is ready to go, we are getting it out and we’re getting it to the folks who need it.”

Congress earmarked $2 billion for livestock losses due to droughts, wildfires and floods. The first livestock disaster aid announced last week totaled $1 billion, which means another $1 billion should be dispersed through the livestock disaster payments that cover losses due to flooding.

USDA says it is fully committed to expediting remaining disaster assistance provided by the American Relief Act 2025. On May 7, it launched its 2023/2024 Supplemental Disaster Assistance public landing page where the status of USDA disaster assistance and block grant rollout timeline can be tracked.

59% of Ag Economists Think Congress Won’t Pass a New Farm Bill Until 2026

Thu, 08 May 2025 21:44:55 GMT

It’s a contentious battle continuing to play out in Congress. Two years overdue, Congress still hasn’t passed a new farm bill, and as the calendar approaches the half-way point of 2025, optimism of passing a farm bill this year is waning.

The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found most agricultural economists think it could be 2026 before we see Congress finally pass a new bill. One reason why, according to agricultural economists, is the fact Congress passed $10 billion in financial relief payments late last year.

The April Monthly Monitor asked the nearly 70 ag economists surveyed each month when they think Congress will pass a new farm bill:

59% said 2026
24% think it won’t happen until 2027
18% said the second half of 2025.

April Ag Economists’ Monthly Montior

(Lindsey Pound)

None of the economists think Congress will pass a new farm bill in the first half of 2025. The survey also asked economists, “Does the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) program make it more difficult for Congress to pass a new farm bill this year?

62% said yes
38% responded no.

Most major agricultural groups argue that the current farm bill is outdated. Passed in 2018, it was designed to cover five years. Congress has passed an extension for two straight years that’s helped agriculture limp along, but another extension might not suffice in addressing the current financial pain being felt on the farm, especially for cotton and rice farmers.

Other Hurdles for Passing a Farm Bill in 2025

Even with the GOP in control of the House and Senate, it’s no secret one of the main obstacles in passing a new farm bill, or any bill in Washington, is the budget.

The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists what are the biggest hurdles in passing a new farm bill, the top response was budget. But economists also say Congress is racing against a calendar, and deeper cuts to SNAP could end up hurting agriculture priorities in the end. One economist even argued ARC and PLC just aren’t effective programs.

“The farm bill just isn’t as important to the administration as is getting their policy agenda through Congress,” said one economist.
“The budget. If farm legislation is approved in 2025, it will likely be part of the budget reconciliation bill and passed without Democratic support, meaning increased support for farmers is provided by deeper cuts in SNAP. Only if that effort collapses is there any real possibility of a bipartisan farm bill,” said another economist in the anonymous survey.
“In general, Congress has difficulty passing any legislation. This is very detrimental to the long-run health of U.S. agriculture and the U.S. economy. We simply have to address entitlements and deficit spending in the next few years.”
“If the new farm bill has to have no new spending similar to the 2018 farm bill, then which title wins and which title loses is the biggest fight,” an economist said in the April survey.
“They have to be working on a bill first. Currently, I do not think a bill is even in the works,” said another economist.
“Pushing back on SNAP,” stated an economist.

Bottom line: The likelihood of passing a farm bill this year is low. Both the Senate and House Committees say it’s a top priority and are working behind the scenes to get a farm bill passed this year, but similar bottlenecks remain, which are a lack of additional funding and a polarized Congress. Debates were heated this week, and the blame game continues. Until Congress can find a way to compromise on Title I and SNAP, the stalemate could continue.

Concerns About a Recession in Agriculture

The farm economy doesn’t seem to be improving. The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows agricultural economists are also growing more pessimistic about the ag economy. The April survey found 72% of ag economists say the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession, up from 62% last month. Eighty-two percent of economists also think this could force more consolidation in agriculture.

Economists Fear Trade War Will Push Agriculture Deeper Into a Recession

Fri, 02 May 2025 17:19:12 GMT

Agricultural economists are growing even more pessimistic as the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the majority are concerned President Donald Trump’s tough stance on trade could push agriculture deeper into a recession while also giving Brazil more of a competitive edge. As one economist stated, the stakes are high, and the key is whether Trump’s policies push ag deeper into a recession, and if U.S. agriculture can survive without China.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a survey of nearly 70 agriculture economists nationwide. This month, 72% of those surveyed say the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession, up from 62% last month. Eighty-two percent of economists also think this could force more consolidation in agriculture.

Despite Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries except China, economists stress agriculture is in peak uncertainty.

Of the 72% who think agriculture is in a recession, their reasons are:

Compressed margins and concern about operating debt carried over from last year.
Prices for most crops have declined more than production expenses since 2022.
Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops.

Yet, the 28% who believe the crops side of agriculture isn’t in a recession say:

“Profit opportunities are there, but slim.”
“Economic performance and growth of U.S. ag is slowing and/or stable but not declining. It’s too early for the impacts of tariffs to change ag business decision-making.”
“Given the volatility in the crop session, a recession requires at least two bad return years, where returns include both private market and government payments. We do not know about 2025 yet, nor do we know the extent of government payments for 2024 crops yet and thus what will be the total return for 2024.”

Economic Drivers

In the survey, 42% of economists said the current state of the ag economy is “somewhat worse” than a month ago, while 26% said it’s unchanged. But when you compare outlooks to a year ago, 58% of economists responded the ag economy is somewhat worse.

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Economists were asked to list the two most important factors driving agriculture’s economic health today, as well as in 12 months. Tariffs and trade war topped the list.
“Weather will always be one of the primary factors, but we can add President Trump’s efforts to restructure global trade to that list this year. We’re in worse shape if he fails and better shape if he succeeds. Big stakes,” one economist said.

In addition to tariffs and the trade war, economists also said:

Inflation
Interest rates
Political uncertainty
Consumer demand
Status of trade issues and the supply-side (crop size) of the balance sheets.
The inability of farmers to manage price volatility due to uncertainty around trade

High Stakes with Trade

Agriculture is an export dependent business. According to the Trump administration, when it comes to tariffs and the impact on the overall economy, long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain. However, when it comes to agriculture, the economists surveyed don’t agree.

When ag economists were asked if they think Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool will benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run:

76% responded no
24% responded yes

April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Since the last trade war, Brazil has gained ground and displaced the U.S. as the top corn exporter in 2023. Economists believe it won’t be the U.S. benefiting from this trade turbulence, but instead these competitors:

Brazil (76% of responses)
China (12% of responses)
India (6% of responses)
Ukraine (6% of responses)

Will Farmers Be Compensated for Short-Term Pain?

As Web reported, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has stated since winter that if farmers suffer financial pain from the trade war, the Trump administration will look at compensating farmers at some point.

April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Of the economists surveyed, 89% think USDA will compensate farmers with financial payments, similar to what the previous Trump administration did with the Market Facilitation Program Payments (MFP). However, 80% of economists say it’s too early for USDA to be considering compensating farmers for financial fallout.

Bottom line:

The risks are high. Unless the U.S. invests in domestic manufacturing over an extended period, the loss from exports could be a big hit to ag commodities. But if the Trump administration can gain more trade access to key countries, the rewards could be even bigger.

Your Next Read:

92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

Farmers Who Stand Strong With Trump on Tariffs Say Long-Term Gain is Worth Short-Term Pain

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 19:18:58 GMT

USDA is forecasting net farm income to jump nearly 30% this year, but talk to row crop farmers today, and they’ll tell you that’s not the case. From farmers and ag lenders to ag economists keeping a close eye on the fragile state of the farm economy, many fear this year could be worse than last as the possible impact of tariffs is throwing even more uncertainty into the mix.

Currently, U.S. farmers are focused on what they can control: putting a crop in the ground. The wheels are already in motion this spring for northwest Iowa farmer Ben Riencshe.

“We’re putting on fertilizer, we’re doing a little light tillage, ammonia, phosphorus and potash and getting fields ready. It will be a few weeks before we put seed in the ground,” says Riensche, owner and operator of Blue Diamond Farming Company, which is located in Jesup, Iowa.

Farmers’ Biggest Concern? Cash Flow
Dry conditions this winter are helping Riensche get in the field a little early. It’s a hopeful start to what could be another challenging year.

“Locally, it’s been dry, so we need to catch up with rain. But a dry spring is usually a blessing, just as long as we catch up later,” Riensche says. “I think more on the mind of farmers is finance. We’ve had a couple years of drawdown on farmers’ working capital. Prices are probably slightly below most farmers’ cash flow level of production. $4.50 corn, which we think is a gift compared to harvest time last year, still doesn’t quite reward unless you’ve got a tremendous amount of equity in your land or machinery.”

Two-Thirds of Ag Lenders Are More Worried about 2025 Compared to 2024
Creighton University releases a survey of ag bankers each month called the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) . The latest RMI shows two-thirds of ag bankers think 2025 will be worse than 2024, and Riensche agrees.

“If we stay on the current course, I think that’s exactly true,” he told U.S. Farm Report. “I think grain farmers will have another year of drawing down working capital.”

Input costs are still a pain point for farmers like Riensche, with some inputs elevated from even last year.

“They haven’t come down much. Fertilizer’s even made a little attempt to go up. I wish there was a little more competition in that space,” he says. “And machinery, oh my gosh, the inflation in machinery. A lot of analysts say we’re up one-third over the past five years, but it really feels like 50% by the time you look at repairs. The repairs on these newer diesel engines with the emission systems are just so costly it’s half of our engine repair costs now.”

Tim Homan is a relationship manager for Rabobank who works with larger operations across central and eastern Iowa. He says he’s not in the camp of ag bankers who think this year could be worse than last.

“I would say we’re set up similar to last year. Of course, there’s a lot to determine where we end up by this fall. The crop is not even in the ground yet,” Homan says. “Farmers have done a great job of holding together overall the last couple years. They have chewed through some working capital that was built up in ‘21 and ‘22. But through it all, when we run our analysis on our renewals of our operating lines. We’re finding that, for the most part, people have been able to keep it together and losses have been overall on the lower end compared to what we were thinking when we first put them in place.”

However, there are some warning signs of stress, and Homan says if farmers don’t have opportunities to market grain at profitable levels this year, it could spell trouble for 2026.

“Are you more concerned about this year or implications for next year,” U.S. Farm report asked Homan.

“Well, I think we always have to be worried about this year, just because there are a lot of unknowns yet. Most [farmers] have held together, but working capital has taken a hit. You’re a lot more confident in your balance sheet when you have good working capital with whatever comes along. It gets a little more nerve racking once that safety net on your balance sheet falls off,” Homan says.

Eroding balance sheets are a concern being echoed by ag lenders- and economists- across the U.S.

According to Farm Journal’s latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is already in a recession, and 85% of those surveyed think it will accelerate consolidation not only on farms, but also agribusinesses.

“The end of the year was rough, but looking at projected cash flows for ‘24/25, we see that looking even worse. Unrealized, of course, but definitely looks like it could be a challenge,” says Alex McCabe, agribusiness loan officer with CUSB Bank , which is located in northeast Iowa.

The Biggest Wild Card: Tariffs and Trade
With a third year of low corn and soybean prices penciled in for current projections, the one thing that saved some of the farmers in this area last year was the ability to out-yield the price.

“If things hold together this year yet, farmers take advantage of opportunities and yields are decent, things could still be okay this year. Next year’s a total unknown. You have the extra question this year of tariffs and their impact,” Homan says.

“Last month we were in Canada, and for every single farmer I talked to, their biggest concern right now is trade. But would you say that’s not your biggest concern,” U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan asked Reinsche.

“I think we’re in a good negotiation phase. For those of us who’ve dickered on a new tractor or wrestled with an input supplier to get the fertilizer at the right price, we’re just making offers right now,” Reinsche says. “So much of this, especially with our Canadian neighbors, is about making trade equal - countervailing so that our products equal theirs.”

“So, you’re in the camp that short-term pain is long-term gain,” Morgan asked as a follow-up.

“Absolutely,” Riensche says.

Not all farmers agree, though. Farm Journal conducted a recent poll of farmers and ranchers, asking the question, “Do you support president Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiation strategy?” 54% responded “no” and 41% said “yes”.

The poll then followed-up by asking, “Do you believe USDA will compensate farmers for losses if agriculture is affected by a trade war?” Those responses were more mixed, with 36% saying “no” and 34% responding “yes”.

When ag economists were asked if they think President Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool will benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run, 92% said “no.”

“If you dig into some of the comments that were made, it’s hard to answer sometimes a “yes-no” question like that,” says Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) , and one of the economists who responded to the survey. “ I noticed one that said, ‘You might win, but the risks are really huge.’ So there’s that possibility. Another comment was, ’It depends how the tariffs end up. What’s their end result? Do they end up reducing trade barriers or do they end adding to the trade barriers?’”

Swanson says as she thinks about long-term impacts, it ultimately hinges on if this trade war is short-lived and if the U.S. could see benefits long-term. But relational damage with trade partners, however, she says can be difficult to restore.

Preparing for Liberation Day on April 2
In what President Trump has touted for weeks as “Liberation Day,” the White House confirmed on Tuesday plans to follow-through with reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, April 2.

The White House says it will impose new tariffs on Wednesday, though there have been no details regarding the exact size and scope. Trump has said he will target all countries, but he’s hinted at the fact some countries could take a larger hit.

.@PressSec details the unfair trade practices that are hurting American business:

- 50% tariff from the EU on American dairy
- 700% tariff from Japan on rice
- 100% tariff from India on agricultural products

"This makes it virtually impossible for American products to be… pic.twitter.com/PI9inicgdX
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 31, 2025

In front of the White House on Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt talked specifically about what she called “unfair trade practices” hurting U.S. farmers. That includes:

50% tariff from the E.U. on American dairy
700% tariff from Japan on rice
100% tariff from India on agricultural products

“This makes it virtually impossible for American products to be imported into these markets. It’s time for reciprocity,” Leavitt says.

Farmers Argue the Growing Ag Trade Deficit Needs to Be Addressed
Farmers like Riensche are hoping getting tough on trade will address the record ag trade deficit.

“We’re going to go through an adjustment period. We’re going make things a little less than comfortable for a while here while we make our trade partners be fair trading partners. It could be hard in the short term on farmers,” Riensche says.

Riensche not only met with agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins during Top Producer Summit this year, but he also got invited to USDA for a meeting with her staff.

“What I saw out of the USDA staff in the White House is they’re very cognizant of that. They need to have methods and ways to keep us whole for a very short period of time as we go through the adjustment period. The linkage won’t be perfect — it never will. There will be mistakes made, but I have great confidence if they keep farmers whole through the adjustments period, we’re going to have a wonderful food production system,” Riensche says.

Rollins Vows Aid to Farmers If They’re Caught in a Trade War
Rollins hasn’t been shy about acknowledging the potential disruptions of trade, but also vowing to help make agriculture whole with some type of assistance. As AgWeb first reported last month , Rollins spoke at Commodity Classic this year, saying improving the ag economy is USDA’s top priority.

Then during a tour of Iowa agricultural facilities this week, Rollins said USDA is prepared to support farmers while tariffs go into place.

“Hopefully our farmers and our ag community won’t be hurt — at least in the short term — by these decisions,” Rollins says. “But if they are, the president’s commitment is the same today as it was five or six years ago. And we at USDA and our partners across Congress and in Washington will work around the clock to ensure that we have the programs in place to do what we did the last time with the (Commodity Credit Corporation). We fully expect to do the same this time but it’s to be determined based on what happens in the next weeks and month.”

In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal in late February , Rollins described how USDA plans to get the ag economy back on track from a recession.

“There’s no doubt — a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of inputs down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” Rollins says.

She recalls how when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. It’s something she says he wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure they could make some kind of a profit,” Rollins says. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation and the cost of energy have absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. When you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. We’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the President’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital and making sure that the cost of inputs goes down? Hopefully, with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change,” she says.

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The Bright Future of the U.S. Dairy Industry: Innovations and Opportunities

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 12:44:47 GMT

The U.S. dairy industry is witnessing a significant upswing, showcasing its potential for growth and innovation. Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), shared insights at the 2025 California Dairy Sustainability Conference held in Visalia, Calif. His address highlighted the resurgence of animal fats in the diet and the promising future of dairy products, including fluid milk.

Dairy’s Time to Shine
Doud emphasized the renewed interest in animal fats and noted that it’s now dairy’s moment to take the spotlight. With $8.5 billion invested in processing pipelines and new investments, such as Chobani’s recent $500 million expansion in its Twin Falls yogurt facility, the dairy industry is capturing attention. Doud challenged the audience by asking, “Where else in agriculture in the world, name another commodity in another country that has this kind of investment that’s going on in the dairy industry in the United States today?” Answering his question, he confidently stated, “The answer is nowhere.”

Emerging Opportunities and Investments
The massive $8.5 billion is spread across 17 facilities throughout the U.S., fueling the industry’s expansion. Doud pointed out the potential for growth in protein demand not just domestically but also globally. The Midwest stands as a primary area for expanding animal protein crush. Highlighting milestones, he mentioned Hilmar’s new cheese-producing facility in Dodge City, Kan.

“The Midwest, these are the only places on Earth that we can expand in terms of animal protein crush today,” Doud says. “Draw a circle with a 300-mile radius around Amarillo, Texas. Dodge City, Kan., last week, we just had the ribbon cutting — an enormous cheese producing facility.”

U.S. Dairy Exports on the Rise
The export value of U.S. dairy products has seen substantial growth year over year (YOY), rising 20% to an impressive $714 million — a January record. The relationship with Mexico as the top U.S. cheese customer continues to strengthen, although January exports recorded a modest 1% increase.

“The cheese exports to Mexico,” Doud enthusiastically remarked. “This is where it’s at, folks. This is why I’m so excited about this industry.”

China’s post-COVID-19 recovery shows a slower tempo, with Doud pointing out that just 300 million of China’s 1.4 billion people are driving dairy demand. He noted some challenges, such as China’s low semen import rates and the impact of high U.S. interest rates on global competition, but remained hopeful that changes in these areas could present future opportunities.

“That’s a leading indicator to say things are not going to go as well in China, no production going forward, maybe there is going to be some opportunity thereafter,” he says, noting that when you have high interest rates in the U.S. that makes the dollar strong, it makes it difficult to compete globally. “Our exports have been a little softer, but we’re still exporting about 16% of our production.”

Trade Imbalances and a Shift in Production
Another critical point Doud highlighted was the trade imbalance between the U.S. and the European Union (EU). Currently, the U.S. imports $3 billion in dairy products from the EU while exporting just $167 million. This imbalance underlines a broader narrative that sees U.S. dairy exports to non-traditional markets, like Guatemala, outpacing exports to the EU.

“It is an outrageous imbalance and trade,” he says. “You realize that we actually export 15 times more cheese to Guatemala than we do the European Union.”

Interestingly, while milk production appears stagnant, the shift in focus to producing more solids is changing the landscape of the industry.

“We have changed this industry,” Doud stated. “This is why we make more cheese because we’ve got more solids.”

The U.S. dairy industry, driven by substantial investments and shifting consumer preferences, is poised for significant growth in the coming years. As the dairy industry adapts to new challenges and opportunities, stakeholders and consumers alike can look forward to an era where dairy continues to thrive and innovate on a global scale.

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New Warning Signs Agriculture Is In A Recession

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 14:04:53 GMT

ADM and Syngenta are just two of the latest companies to announce layoffs in the agriculture sector. They join a long list of equipment manufacturers, seed and chemical companies and other agribusinesses who are restructuring and laying off employees to weather the current challenges in the ag economy. These are just the latest signs of a glaring reality: the U.S. ag economy is in a recession.

According to Farm Journal’s March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is already in a recession. The survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country has been tracking the concerns of a recession for months, and as consolidation consumes agriculture, it’s a reminder of the fallout that comes with a downturn.

“Low cotton and wheat prices are a real disaster,” said one economist in the anonymous survey. “Corn and soybean prices continue to move around with some increases ahead of planting lately but they are not at great levels.”
“A recession is a sustained period of economic decline. We may not be able to say the entire agriculture sector is in recession, but the row crop sector has been in economic decline since 2022 and looks like that will continue into 2025,” another economist responded.
“Costs have outpaced revenue for some time now, and recent policy shifts are unlikely to alleviate that pressure,” one economist responded.

Recession concerns in agriculture

(Lindsey Pound )

One economist pointed out net returns are as tight as they have been since 2007, but even then, there are still 38% of economists who don’t think the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession.

“There are folks struggling for sure; however, this is part of the ebbs and flows of commodity agriculture. The difference this time is there was not as much liquidity saved during the good years to assist in the bad years. Therefore people are having to pull back,” one economist said. “ I don’t think the crop sector is in a recession because producer continue to be the dominant buyer of land and crop acreage estimates do not currently anticipate the American producer is going to drastically pull back on planting a crop. If we were in a recession, we would see declining land prices and people would be pulling back on production; neither is happening.”

Growing Concerns Among Ag Lenders
Eroding balance sheets are a concern echoed by agriculture economists, as well as ag lenders across the U.S.

“The end of the year last year was rough, but looking at projected cash flows for ‘25, we see that looking even worse,” Alex McCabe, agribusiness loan officer for CUSB Bank based in Iowa told “U.S. Farm Report.” “It’s unrealized, of course, but definitely looks like it could be a challenge.”

“Most have held together, but working capital has taken a hit,” says Tim Homan, relationship manager for Rabobank. “You’re a lot more confident in your balance sheet when you have good working capital with whatever comes along. It gets a little more nerve racking once that safety net on your balance sheet falls off.”

Concerns About More Consolidation Ahead

Consolidation concerns

(March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

With the majority of agriculture saying agriculture is currently in a recession, it lends itself to another tough reality: consolidation could continue. Eighty-five percent of economists who responded to the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said they think the current situation will accelerate consolidation not only on farms but also agribusinesses.

“Farmers who rent land, and some who own land, are not able to generate enough revenue to cover loan obligations and have to liquidate. Those who own land will likely be the ones to weather the economic downturn we are in,” one economist said.
“A sustained period of high costs and low prices will likely result in some farmers going out of business sooner than expected, which may be due to point of financial need or stopping by choice ahead of that. When farm consolidation is accelerated, there are fewer farmers buying inputs. Even those the acres are the same, fewer input retailers are needed to serve the customer base. Also, have greater pressure on the whole industry as big farmers grow,” another economist responded in the anonymous survey.
“Higher cost producers may be leaving the industry because they have to, not because they choose to,” one economist said.
“The agricultural industry has long valued hard work as a fundamental principle of it’s demographic makeup. For a while, government programs and loosening credit conditions have allowed people to receive more for less work. That is changing. I continue to hear conversations with ag service providers that they are focusing on those producers that are willing to put in the business planning themselves and not expecting someone else to do it for them. The process consolidates the sector by removing those that are inefficient and unwilling to do the work,” said another economist.

Another economist in the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor pointed out that when you look out there at available credit, the situation seems okay, but there are some reports out there of lenders having to deny loans.

“I don’t believe it’s widespread, at least not in my area,” said Homan, who is an ag lender in central and northeast Iowa. “There are probably certain areas that have been hit harder by weather and harder by price than what we have.”

No New Farm Bill as a Backstop
Those areas that are particularly struggling are the ones that rely heavily on rice and cotton, and without a farm bill, farmers in the south are worried the financial pain will accelerate in 2025.

Farm Bill timing

(Lindsey Pound )

The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists when they think Congress will pass a new farm bill. While just over one-third of economists think there’s still a chance to get a farm bill during the second half of 2025, 42% now say it could be 2027 before Congress passes a new farm bill.

“It’s really tough,” one farmer located north of Lubbock, Texas told Farm Journal. “Honestly, if I could get 50¢ on the dollar, I would sell out today. I’ve never been more disappointed. It’s not just commodity prices, but the fact we don’t have a farm bill that has been a real backstop for so long. We have used insurance way too much, and it’s just not sustainable anymore.”

Your Next Read:
92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

What USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates Would Shock the Market On Monday?

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 14:06:53 GMT

Anticipation has been building ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday, March 31. Not only is USDA releasing its first survey-based acreage report of the year, but it’s the week President Donald Trump is set to unleash reciprocal tariffs. Market analysts warn it could be an explosive week in the markets, and farmers should prepare.

Pre-report corn acreage estimates by Reuters range from north of 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range is 82.5 million to 85.5 million.

🇺🇸Analysts see 2025 U.S. #corn plantings at 94.36 million acres and #soybeans at 83.76 million.
▪️Larger-than-normal range of estimates on corn; 3 of 22 analysts above 95.0M
▪️-3.8% predicted drop in soy acres YOY, the largest drop analysts have predicted in March since 2007 pic.twitter.com/itlriMiDGv
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) March 25, 2025

USDA’s first glimpse at acreage, though it wasn’t survey-based, was during the Ag Outlook Forum in February. At that time, the agency’s corn estimate came in at 94 million acres, which caught the market by surprise. What would shock the market this time? That’s the question U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan had for market analysts this week.

“I think most people are thinking it’s going to be something closer to 95 [million],” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, told U.S. Farm Report. “If we printed a 96 number that would be a surprise and the market would have to probably trade lower. That’s the working numbers I’m going with as to what the market has already built into the current price of corn.”

As Mike North, Ever.Ag’s principal of risk management, has traveled the country he’s encountered producers embracing more corn.

“[For corn] to come out higher than what the USDA Ag Outlook Forum projected in February would not be a real shock to me. I think even in this last day you’re seeing it’s settling into what could be a larger number,” North says.

For soybeans, USDA projected 84 million acres in February, which was down 3.1 million acres from the previous year’s final estimate. Hackett thinks soybeans’ double digit price gains on Thursday was the market anticipating lower acres.

“I think that the market, if you’re looking at soybeans, has been pulling in. We started to get some upside Thursday,” he says. “I think the market is starting to get a little worried about a low number and maybe having to reprice the soybean market relative to corn to maybe get those numbers back into balance by the time we get to the June acreage report. There’s been very interesting action in soybeans the last few days and how it’s trading relative to corn and wheat.”

Ahead of Monday’s report, AgWeb compiled details of some of the private acreage estimates.

AgMarket.net Pegs Corn Acres North of 95 Million

Co-founder of AgMarket.net Matt Bennett explains their 45-person team surveyed growers for data.

The brokerage firm is pegging corn acres at 95.39 million.

“Every region, quite frankly, had higher corn acres,” Bennett says. “A couple of retailers in central Illinois said this is the biggest spring run they’ve had for corn-on-corn acres in a long time.”

Soybean acres in the AgMarket.net report sit at 82.75 million.

“Growers just keep telling us we can’t make money with sub $10 beans,” Bennett says.

All wheat acres total 47.82 million, according to the AgMarket.net report, despite spring wheat acres holding strong. The firm points to overall wheat profitability affecting acres.

The estimates from the brokerage and consulting group have been fast-developing as Bennett says pre-plant decisions are still evolving thanks to the weather and the markets.

“There were some [planting] changes made, two weeks ago, literally. I think some folks were putting on anhydrous and said, ‘This is going on like a dream, and then they looked up, saw their cash fall bid for soybeans at $9.70 and thought, I don’t want to do that, I want to do this,’” Bennett says.

Allendale Estimate Falls Below 94 Million Corn Acres

Allendale’s annual acreage survey results confirm higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.

Their survey shows corn planting intentions of 93.981 million acres, which would be up 3.4 million from 2024. Using 91.23% harvested and a 182.3 bu. per acre yield, production lands at a record 15.633 billion bushels, which is 767 million bushels more than 2024. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, says that raises corn ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels versus 1.54 billion bushels for this year.

Allendale tallies soybean planting intentions at 84.283 million acres. At 98.79% harvested and 52.7 bu. per acre, production totals 4.391 billion bushels, which is 24 million more than last year.

“On the corn side, there were no real surprises compared to what the trade is talking about,” Nelson says. “On the soybean side, which is about 2.8 million lower than last year, that’s maybe a little trimmer than some other people as far as what we happen to be hearing. The biggest question for ourselves in the survey was actually about the spring wheat numbers. Mind you, the Ag Outlook Forum numbers implied no drop in spring wheat for this year, but we’re seeing clear confirmations of some pretty good drops.”

Wheat acreage is estimated at 45.863 million acres, down 0.2 million from last year. Using 81.82% harvested and a 50.1 bu. per acre yield, production comes in at 1.879 billion bushels, which would be 92 million more than last year.

FBN Sees A Shift Away Soybean Acres

FBN’s survey included almost 1,000 responses from its farmer-member network. Cody Bills, director of U.S. Market Advisory & Brokerage at Farmer’s Business Network, says the company has done this report for five years with only a 1.3% error versus USDA’s numbers.

Compared with 2024 crop acres, FBN’s report shows corn acres up nearly 5 million acres in 2025 to 95.5 million acres.

“For corn, we are on the higher side of analysts’ expectations,” Bills says. “It’s a broad shift out of soybeans into corn — out of beans in Iowa, out of beans in Illinois and out of beans in Indiana.We also saw some notable shifts in North Dakota out of spring wheat into corn, and we saw some broad switching out of cotton into corn.”

The shift from soybeans leads to a 3.6 million acre dip comparing 2024 to prospective 2025 data.

“There’s uncertainty around the demand side of soybeans,” Bills says. “When you look at spring prices, when you think about crop insurance, corn is at $4.70, so 4¢ higher than last year. Soybeans are almost $1 lower. The ratio of bean prices to corn prices have slipped. The ratio of soybeans to corn is 2.2:1 this year compared to last year when we were 2.5:1.”

Adding up acres for corn and soybeans, FBN expects that total to be over 179 million.

“We saw some acres out of sorghum into corn. In general, we felt pretty comfortable being in line with the Ag Outlook Forum, which was somewhere around 178 and we’re sitting right around 179,” BIlls says.

Pro Farmer Expects Total Planted Acres to Jump 1 Million

Results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signal there will be a notable shift from soybeans to corn this year. Total corn and soybean plantings are projected at 178.8 million acres, which would be up 1.11 million acres (0.6%) from last year. Total acres planted to corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton are expected to be down roughly 1 million acres at 233.9 million.

“This year happens to be one of the years with some bigger movement, especially on the corn side,” says Brian Grete with ProFarmer.

Based on Pro Farmer’s analysis of survey responses, producers intend to plant 93.75 million acres of corn this year, up nearly 3.2 million acres (3.5%) from last year. Corn acres are expected to increase in all but one key state, South Dakota, with Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota acres to jump 4% or more and the cotton states signaling a 3.7% increase.

Producers indicate they intend to plant 85 million acres to soybeans this year, down 2.05 million acres (2.4%) from last year. Of the top nine soybean-producing states, six are projected to decrease plantings. Among states indicating a decline, soybean acres are projected to fall an average of 4%. The states noting higher plantings, which are South Dakota, Ohio and Minnesota in the Midwest, are expecting modest increases.

“About two-thirds of the corn acres that are gained are attributable to soybeans,” Grete says. “Every region except the Northern Plains is expected to see a decline in soybean acres.”

Part of that swing can be attributed to prevent plant acres coming back into production, not necessarily a switch from another crop, he adds. Declines in anticipated soybean acres in cotton states are the greatest at 3.9%.

Total wheat acres are projected at 45.4 million, down 680,000 acres (1.5%) from last year. Spring wheat seedings as a whole are expected to decline 590,000 acres (4.6%) to 12.1 million acres. The Pro Farmer survey shows Northern Plains producers will favor durum over other spring wheat. Other spring wheat acres are projected to decline, which is not overly surprising given current prices, Grete says. Contrary to USDA’s winter wheat seedings estimate in January, winter wheat acres are expected to be down modestly. Acres in historical winter wheat areas dropped while Midwest states signaled an uptick. Relatively longer growing seasons and favorable insurance regulations have encouraged Midwesterners to double crop wheat and soybeans.

Poll Results: More Than Half of Farmers Say They Don’t Support Trump’s Use of Tariffs

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 18:38:30 GMT

President Donald Trump has been clear since the campaign trail: Tariffs are a tool he would use aggressively during his presidency, and that’s exactly what the president is doing as tariffs have become a bit of a trademark during Trump 2.0 and the first 100 days.

As he prepares to impose more tariffs on April 2, Trump said Monday that he will impose tariffs of 25% on any nation that purchases oil from Venezuela.

“Venezuela has been very hostile to the United States and the freedoms which we espouse. Therefore, any country that purchases oil and/or gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a tariff of 25% to the United States on any trade they do with our country,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

As both targeted and blanket tariffs are applied, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture are also caught in the middle of the latest trade war. How do farmers feel about this? That’s exactly what we wanted to uncover during the latest AgWeb poll.

The latest AgWeb poll asked, “Do you support President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiation strategy?” And even though the majority of farmers say they don’t support Trump’s use of tariffs, according to the recent AgWeb poll, it wasn’t on overwhelming majority.

(AgWeb Poll)

Out of the nearly 3,000 farmers who responded,

54% responded “no”
41% responded “yes”

The poll then followed-up by asking, “Do you believe USDA will compensate farmers for losses if agriculture is affected by a trade war?”

The responses here were much more mixed.

36% responded “no”
34% said “yes”
30% responded they were “unsure”

What are farmers saying in the field? Michelle Jones, a fourth-generation farmer in south central Montana was asked the question about if she supports Trump’s use of tariffs on “AgriTalk” last week.

“No, definitely not,” Jones said. “I don’t think that tariffs are an effective negotiation strategy, and I also don’t think that we’re truly being surgical in how we are applying them.”

Jones says there are cases in history where tariffs are effective, but she says in the majority of those cases, the tariffs are extremely targeted and apply to a certain industry or specific country.

“They were also very short-term whereas now, we’re just using them as basically a blanket approach and then escalating when the president gets angry, and then he rolls them back, and it creates too much uncertainty. It’s just not wildly effective,” Jones also said on “AgriTalk.”

“I agree, they were used before the Phase One deal with China, and they were never dealt with under the Biden administration either,” added April Hemmes, an Iowa farmer, who was also on “AgriTalk” last week. “Now all we’ve done is piss off our neighbors with this, the Canadians, bringing Canada and Mexico into it. And now all consumers are going to have to pay up, not just the farmers.”

However, there are some farmers and those in agriculture who support the president’s heavy use of tariffs. One of those is Bubba Horwitz of Bubba Trading, who focuses on the commodity markets.

“I think it’s a great tool to use,” Horwitz said on “AgriTalk.” “I think you’ve seen it with Canada and Mexico to get things that he wanted to get done. And certainly, you can bargain with those tariffs, you can do whatever you want. I think it’s a great negotiating tool, and it certainly can put pressure because remember one thing, the United States of America could stand alone. We could be an island without anybody. We don’t need anybody else to survive, whereas other countries and nations do need us to survive. We could be totally an island and exist perfectly well without the help of any other country in the world.”

Secretary Rollins Defends Trump’s Use of Tariffs
During a recent interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins defended the president’s use of tariffs, also saying he’s holding Canada accountable.

“This president’s vision of tariffs being such an important part of his toolkit, as he begins to realign the economy to put America first, to put our men and women, our families first. Everybody knows, and when they voted in November of 2024, they knew that’s what they were voting for. And so as we see the president begin to roll out, as we see him hold accountable Canada with their 250 % tariffs on our dairy products, as they see him hold accountable, Mexico, China, all these countries where we have a 5 % on our end when our products go out. They’ve got 15 %,so three times, this is on average on their end when their products come in. It’s not fair. And it’s got to be equalized as we move toward more free trade,” said Rollins.

Rollins pointed out the president has been very clear that there will be an interim period where the economy readjusts.

“Real transformation takes these harder decisions. And no one’s willing to do that, except now President Trump is,” Rollins said during the interview. “So obviously 100 % behind it, I am talking to farmers every single day. They know that the president has their back. They know and are prepared for potentially, you know, an interim period as we move toward what the president has said is the greatest age of prosperity not just for all Americans, But for our farmers in our ranchers as well.”

Ag Economists are Concerned About Tariffs and Impact Long Term
Farm Journal asked a similar question regarding using tariffs to negotiate in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, and the survey found an overwhelming majority of economists are concerned about the impacts long term.

Ninety-two percent of economists think Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool won’t benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run.

“Lost trade and lost reliability in a key sector for aggregate ag demand will hurt agriculture more than any specific market gains made from negotiations or reciprocal trade battles,” one economist said.
“Tariffs not only have a negative impact the short run, they also have negative impacts in the long run,” said an economist in the anonymous survey.
“Lost market share is extremely difficult to regain, especially when the U.S. becomes known as an unreliable market partner,” another economist noted.
“I responded yes, although I believe there are scenarios where this is harmful and scenarios where it could be beneficial,” said another economist. “For it to be beneficial depends on it being short lived and resulting in trade initiatives with market access or purchase commitments. And in the meantime, action is taken quickly related to President Trump’s post to offset trade loss with increased domestic use such as removing dated rules that limit ethanol blends, renewing or creating biofuels production incentives, and adding SAF as a mandated fuel.”

Market Facilitation Program 2.0?
If agriculture is caught in the middle of another trade war, the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor wanted to know if economists think USDA will compensate farmers for their losses again, similar to what the previous Trump administration did with Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments.

Even though Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to make farmers whole through another trade war, economists are concerned about available funding.

Seventy-seven percent of economists think USDA will compensate farmers, but 23% don’t think so.

Here’s what economists in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor had to say.

“Congress might be the limiting factor,” one economist said.
“They will want to do so, but their ability to do so may be limited. The failure to include replenishment of the Commodity Credit Corporation’s borrowing authority in the continuing resolution limits available CCC funds, and other options may also be limited in potential scope,” another respondent shared.
“Yes, I expect more trade compensation because of the political sensitivity of ag and the administrative commitments already to doing so. I don’t know what and how much it might be, particularly if we are entering a new era of budget austerity or at least stated goals of budget restraint,” responded one economist.
“Depends on who is calling the shots Trump or Musk,” another economist noted. “Trump might want to because farmers voted for him. But will he spend the money? He probably would. But, who else are farmers going to vote for? Is Trump running again?”
“Tariffs are not good revenue creators — they are a poorly targeted tax on U.S. consumers. If the federal government believes it will raise revenue from these tariffs like it claims, it is hard for me to believe that they will turn around and give that limited revenue back to the people it impacted the most,” said an economist in the anonymous survey.

No matter what happens with the upcoming April 2 tariff deadline, economists agree that what happens with trade and tariffs will likely be the top factor that impacts agriculture over the next 12 months.

In a recent interview on “AgriTalk,” hear where Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, stands on fair trade versus free trade.

92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 14:47:57 GMT

President Donald Trump hasn’t been shy about using tariffs as a negotiating tool. As he cracks down on fentanyl and illegal border crossings, he’s also pushing to restore what he calls fairness in U.S. trade relationships and countering non-reciprocal trading arrangements.

The reality for agriculture is the U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record in 2024 as imports soared, and Trump says he wants to reverse the trend.

According to the Trump administration, when it comes to tariffs and the impact on the overall economy, long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain. However, when it comes to agriculture, ag economists survyed in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor don’t agree.

Ninety-two percent of economists think Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool won’t benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run.

Here are some of those economists’ comments from the most recent Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey.

“Food as a weapon doesn’t have a successful track record, see Jimmy Carter and the 1980s,” responded one economist in the anonymous survey. “It’s not a guarantee as it’s like playing Russian roulette; you might ‘win,’ but the risks are huge.”
“Farm Journal readers should learn about the long-term consequences of Smoot-Hawley. It wasn’t just about the economic costs — it was also about the relational damage between trading partners. I have a hard time believing we will rebuild these relationships any time in the foreseeable future,” another economist said.
“It depends on whether tariffs are used as a negotiating tool with the ultimate goal of reducing trade barriers, or whether they instead result in a world with higher barriers. The president’s emphasis on tariffs as a way to raise revenue suggests tariffs and their consequences may persist,” was another economist’s response in the Monthly Monitor.

However, one economist wasn’t as certain, saying, “For it to be beneficial depends on it being short lived and resulting in trade initiatives with market access or purchase commitments. And in the meantime, action is taken quickly related to Trump’s post to offset trade loss with increased domestic use such as removing dated rules that limit ethanol blends, renewing or creating biofuels production incentives, and adding SAF as a mandated fuel.”

Trade War or No Trade War?
What an overwhelming number of agricultural economists do agree on is that the U.S. is in the midst of another trade war. Ninety-two percent of economists say a trade war is already here, while only 8% responded no.

“I don’t think anyone is arguing with the notion that we are in another ‘trade war,’” one economist said. “This one is far bigger and far more consequential than the last one we were in.”

“It seems more like a trade cold war,” another economist responded. “The situation is ever-changing, and it is hard for buyers, markets and producers to anticipate reality and effect. The threat of tariffs is almost as effective as a tariff.”

As agriculture tries to navigate the turbulence and shocks of another trade war, the ultimate question is: Who wins in a trade war? According to Romel Mostafa, professor of business, economics and public policy for the Ivey Business School in London, Ontario, it’s neither the U.S. or Canada.

“If we think about U.S. and Canada, we both lose,” Mostafa says. “The way our markets are integrated, both from the input side as well as the product side, any tariff really increases cost of production for our farmers all the way to food on the table. What then happens, essentially, some of our products are going to be less competitive in major markets than where we compete. Who then benefits? Perhaps Brazil, Russia or other countries.”

Other agricultural economists agree: If you’re looking at the trade war between the U.S. and Canada or the U.S. and China, it’s not the U.S. who wins, it’s ultimately one of the United States’ biggest competitors: Brazil.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked, “In the next 10 years, which country ultimately benefits the most from the current trade turbulence?” Seventy-three percent of economists think it’s Brazil, and 18% said China.

This Trade War Could Be Worse Than the Last time
Of the agricultural economists surveyed, 69% say they don’t think a trade war today would have the same impact it did 2018 through 2020. Instead, most think it will be worse.

“The trade war in 2018/19 also had the African swine fever in China. Because of ASF, they did not need the soybeans anyway. It will be hard to figure out what impacted the U.S. markets/prices more, but the market reaction should not be as great this time,” said one economist in the monthly survey.

Ag Econoimsts’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“It would be a bigger impact,” another economist said. “The first round of trade wars in agriculture were largely used as a wedge for negotiation or renegotiation of agreements that provided improved access and growth opportunities for ag trade. This round seems to be championed based on reshaping the entire trading system, a system that U.S. agriculture largely benefited from over time.”

“There appears to be less willingness by the U.S. taxpayer to provide financial assistance to agricultural producers. That is not to say that financial assistance is absent this go around, but I do believe it increases the uncomfortable situation for producers who largely support less government spending,” one of the respondents shared.

However, other economists think it could have a similar impact, saying the same commodities will be impacted.

Even talk of tariffs is enough to move the markets, as some analysts argue the commodity markets have been ignoring fundamentals, instead trading headlines recently.

The Potential Economic Hit to Ag
The American Farm Bureau (AFBF) economists recently took a deeper dive into the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs. AFBF economists say of the top 20 U.S. agricultural products currently being targeted by Canada, for a total of $5.8 billion, commodities such as juice, coffee and chocolate are hardest hit, along with wine, fresh fruit, dairy products, poultry and rice.

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs

(AFBF)

China’s retaliatory tariffs

(AFBF )

When it comes to China, Beijing has specifically targeted 15 products including beef, cotton, grain sorghum, pork, corn and dairy along with fresh fruit. Economists say while it’s too early to measure the full impact of the tariffs on U.S. agriculture, they believe it will certainly decrease demand for U.S. products in Canada and China.

Market Facilitation Program 2.0?
If agriculture is caught in the middle of another trade war, the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor wanted to know if economists think USDA will compensate farmers for their losses again, similar to what the previous Trump administration did with Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments.

March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Even though Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to make farmers whole through another trade war, economists are concerned about available funding. Seventy-seven percent of economists think USDA will compensate farmers, but 23% don’t think so.

“Congress might be the limiting factor,” one economist said.

“They will want to do so, but their ability to do so may be limited. The failure to include replenishment of the Commodity Credit Corporation’s borrowing authority in the continuing resolution limits available CCC funds, and other options may also be limited in potential scope,” another respondent shared.

“The political dynamics appear to be similar,” said another economist. “Amounts are however likely to be less, maybe substantially less, due to the general policy initiative to reduce government spending.”

The Secretary of Agriculture has come out and said they will use these tools if it becomes necessary.

Oregon Agriculture: Navigating Challenges and Embracing Resilience

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 14:24:16 GMT

Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Oregon’s economy, environment, and communities. Recently, Lisa Charpilloz Hanson, the Oregon Director of Agriculture, addressed the 2025 Oregon Dairy Farmers Convention in Salem, highlighting the significant roles that agriculture plays both within the state and beyond its borders.

Economic Impact
Agriculture, including farming, ranching, and fishing, forms the backbone of the Oregon economy. With over 531,000 jobs linked to agriculture, food, and fiber production, Oregon’s total farming value stands at approximately $5.5 million, while the overall economic impact of the food system reaches a staggering $42 billion. Dairy alone contributes about $725 million to state commodities, supporting health and wellness both locally and globally.

“The people in Oregon agriculture are incredibly special,” Hanson says, noting that with 95% of farms family-owned and operated, the industry stands out for its unique approaches and diversity. “Remarkably, 44% of the agricultural producers are women, positioning Oregon as a national leader in this respect.”

Challenges and Resilience
However, the Oregon ag industry is not without its challenges. Economic pressures, such as inflation and rising input costs, hit hard, while environmental stresses like heat, wildfires, erratic weather, and drought pose serious concerns. Furthermore, the global market faces uncertainties due to tariffs and export disruptions.

“Farm income was down in 2023, and it was down again in 2024 and by all anticipation we’re anticipating it’ll be down again in 2025. Many challenges are outside our producer’s control, including inflation, rising input costs, labor, housing, fuel, fertilizer and the impact of tariffs and trade on your commodities,” Hanson says.

Despite these hurdles, Oregon farmers demonstrate resilience, adapting and innovating in the face of adversity. Environmental conservation, including healthier soils and water, along with habitat creation, remains pivotal.

“There are significant concerns about the well-being of our farmers and ranchers across the U.S., the environment and climatic changes that we’re dealing with in terms of heat, wild fires, extreme events in terms of weather, rain, earlier and later in our crop cycles and drought with hotter and drier summers for Oregon, raised essential concerns of what our potential fire season may look like,” she says. “We are talking a lot about our pressures in terms of water, the stressors on our groundwater systems and our surface water for production are ongoing concerns for our farmers and ranchers across the state.”

Food Safety and Export
Food safety is another priority, with an emphasis on maintaining strong safety systems amidst changes in the FDA.

“The current conversations around tariffs and the potential for retaliatory tariffs is a concern for all of agriculture to comply to compound market uncertainty. During the COVID crisis, we lost a foothold in many of our export markets due to supply and change disruptions,” Hanson says, noting that concerns about the current economic trends, inflation, the regulatory landscape, and ongoing changes with the federal agencies are things that we need to watch closely and monitor.

While facing numerous challenges, Oregon’s agricultural community not only survives but thrives. Its importance to the economy, environment, and communities remains undeniable. Farmers across the state continue to demonstrate innovation, adaptability, and resilience, ensuring agriculture remains a fundamental part of Oregon’s future.

Your Next Read:
Navigating Rough Waters: The U.S. Dairy Industry Amidst Global Trade Tensions

USDA Prepares to Protect Farmers in a Trade War

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 19:24:04 GMT

As the clock struck midnight on March 4, President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect. Almost immediately, global markets started to react, and trading partners retaliated.

While the full economic consequences of the trade war remain to be seen, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to have a plan, such as the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), ready for farmers, if needed. In 2019, MFP provided direct payments to producers impacted by retaliatory tariffs, resulting in the loss of traditional exports.

“Everything is on the table right now. Everything. I know that President Trump, whom I speak with regularly, realizes the state of the farm economy in this country,” Rollins said on Sunday at Commodity Classic . “The last time, I know, he pushed Secretary Perdue to ensure we were able to make whole–as best as we could–some of those, and hopefully most of those, if not all, who had been hurt. We’re building the team at USDA to ensure we have the structure and the plan in place to allow us to move very quickly.”

In an interview with Farm Journal at Commodity Classic, USDA Economist Seth Meyer says he has been instructed by Secretary Rollins to be ready for a relief program, and he’s started calculating what possible relief could look like.

“Calculating something right today would not be helpful because we don’t know where we’re going to be, but absolutely, the Secretary instructs: ‘You need to be ready, have your pencil sharpened and have your tools available. Think about how you would proceed,’” Meyer says. “We are ready in that backstop. It won’t be easy. We’ve talked a lot about different countries. We’ve talked about reciprocal trade, but we are indeed sharpening our pencils to be able to do what she’s asked us to do.”

Here are the key details of the U.S. tariffs and retaliation from Canada, Mexico and China.

(Farm Journal)

Canada responded swiftly with plans to impose 25% tariffs on nearly $100 billion of U.S. imports over two tranches. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to announce retaliatory tariff and non-tariff measures against the U.S. at an upcoming rally in Mexico City’s central square.

Meyer’s question is, “Can Mexico afford to retaliate?”

(Farm Journal)

As President Trump’s tariffs drew swift retaliation from trading partners, the ag industry was quick to react.

Impact on Farm Machinery
Equipment makers are concerned about the additional duties, especially after a rough year for the industry.

“We have spent decades laying down supply chains across the world. Our industry is global — 30% of all equipment made in the U.S. is destined for export. Canada is our largest market outside of the U.S.,” says Johan “Kip” Eideberg, senior vice president – government and industry relations, Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM). “If we want to create more jobs here in America, we need to sell more equipment and that means selling to customers outside of the U.S.”

As detailed in From the Factory to Your Fields: Where Farm Equipment Is Made , the ag equipment manufacturing industry is fully integrated across the three North American allies involved in the so-called “trade wars.”

“Anytime you disrupt those tightly connected supply chains — and tariffs would be a direct disruption — it’s going to have a serious impact on equipment manufacturers and on our farmers,” Eineberg says. “Given that Canada is our largest export market, we’re sending almost $10 billion worth of goods to Canada every year, there’s a lot at stake here.”

In 2018, Eineberg estimates, tariffs on steel, aluminum and farm inputs from China drove up the cost of making equipment in the U.S. by about 9 percentage points.

“Obviously, manufacturers will try to absorb as much of that as they can, but inevitably some of it will be passed down to the consumer, which in this case is our farmers and ranchers,” he adds.

AEM is also sounding the alarm on the compounding effect of tariffs, specifically due to the tight integration of manufacturing cycles on both sides of the border. There are often cases, Eineberg says, where components and raw materials are shuttled three to five times across the border between different factories in the manufacturing process. That means each time a piece of steel or other raw material being manufactured into a component for a tractor crosses the border, the tariffs multiply.

An example of the cross-border journey of one piece of agriculture equipment from raw material to delivery on the farm.

(AEM)

Impact on Rural America and Fertilizer
American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall expressed alarm about potential harm to farmers resulting from imposing stiff tariffs on the top three agricultural markets by value for the U.S.

“Farm Bureau members support the goals of security and ensuring fair trade with our North American neighbors and China, but, unfortunately, we know from experience that farmers and rural communities will bear the brunt of retaliation.” Duvall says.

Of note, more than 80% of the U.S. supply of potash , a key fertilizer product, comes from Canada.

“Tariffs that increase fertilizer prices threaten to deliver another blow to the finances of farm families already grappling with inflation and high supply costs,” Duvall adds. “The uncertainty hits just as operating loans are being secured and spring planting approaches, leaving farmers in a tough spot.”

(Farm Journal)

Read: Fertilizer Manufacturers and Retailers React to Trade Tariffs

Impact on Soybeans
During the 2018 trade war with China, U.S. agriculture experienced more than $27 billion in losses, with soybeans accounting for 71% of those losses, according to the American Soybean Association (ASA). Unlike in 2018, farmers are in a more tentative financial situation in 2025. Commodity prices are down nearly 50% from three years ago, while the costs for land and inputs, such as seed, pesticides and fertilizer, are high.

In an ASA statement, it says for years the organization’s farmer-members have consistently maintained their position that they do not support the use of tariffs, which threaten important markets and raise input costs for farmers, as a negotiation tactic.

“Farmers are frustrated. Tariffs are not something to take lightly and ‘have fun’ with. Not only do they hit our family businesses squarely in the wallet, but they rock a core tenet on which our trading relationships are built, and that is reliability. Being able to reliably supply a quality product to them consistently,” says Caleb Ragland, ASA president and soybean farmer from Magnolia, Ky.

Soybeans by far make up the largest volume of ag products exported to China. In 2024, U.S. exporters sent 27 million metric tons of soybeans to China valued at $12.76 billion, according to USDA. Mexico is the second-largest customer for whole soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. Canada is the fourth-largest customer for soybean meal.

“Soybean producers face huge, disproportionate impacts from trade flow disruptions, particularly to China,” Ragland says. “And we know foreign soybean producers in Brazil and other countries are expecting abundant crops this year and are primed to meet any demand stemming from a renewed U.S.-China trade war.”

Impact on Corn and Ethanol Demand
Market analysis shows tariffs won’t solve the U.S. trade deficit and instead will just shift business to other countries, says Neil Caskey, CEO, National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).

“We issued a study back in the fall that documented the implications of tariffs and specifically retaliation in a trade war — it’s not good for corn farmers, farmers in general,” he says. “We did that in conjunction with the American Soybean Association, and it concluded a trade war is really only good for Brazil, and we hope to avoid that.”

The top two destinations for corn and ethanol are Mexico and Canada. According to Krista Swanson, chief economist, NCGA, 40% of U.S. corn exports go to Mexico and more than 40% of U.S. ethanol exports are shipped to Canada.

“[Corn] is a commodity [those countries] consume way more than what they produce, so they’re going to have to get it from somewhere,” she says. “There’s definitely some concern about losing corn [exports], but how much is lost is left to be seen because it depends on what happens with shifting trade flows.”

Impact on Beef and Pork Sectors
U.S. meat export could be impacted by the tariff war as well, with China singling out pork and beef for a 10% counter tariff. Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 8.4 billion in U.S. red meat exports last year, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

USMEF is disappointed no agreements were reached to avoid or postpone the tariffs, but president and CEO Dan Halstrom says just because there are tariffs, doesn’t mean trade will stop.

“I do think the thing that we have definitely in our favor is that demand for our products globally is record breaking. I mean, it’s as good as I’ve ever seen it in 40-plus years,” he says. “I think that we have a very unique product. We got to keep that in mind because that’s a big leverage point.”

Halstrom says it could be a bumpy ride for a while, but it’s not something exporters can’t overcome.

Read: Industry Comments on Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Pork and Beef

The Tax Man Cometh To The Farm

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 16:44:43 GMT

Everyone can benefit from a practical reminder from time-to-time. In this case, Paul Neiffer wants to remind farmers that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of 2025.

“We’ve had these tax cuts for eight years now, but farmers may not be thinking about this and what it could mean for them,” said Neiffer, principal of FarmCPAReport.com and a Top Producer columnist.

Neiffer addressed the topic of what farmers need to know now and address from a tax standpoint during the 2025 Top Producer Summit in Kansas City.

“Certainly, farmers are aware of the lifetime estate tax exemption dropping in half after this year. But I think a lot of these other provisions that would hit them, they’re probably not quite as aware of them,” he said.

Neiffer highlighted three provisions he believes U.S. farmers are likely most interested in seeing extended or made permanent. They include:

1. The 100% Bonus Depreciation. Neiffer said he believes the 100% provision will be made permanent, though it’s currently only 40%.

“We think that will come back to farmers,” he said. “The practical benefit is when they purchase equipment or farm buildings they’ll be able to deduct 100% of that item in the year of purchase. Also, there is a chance that trade-in of farm equipment will be similar to the old rules and non-taxable in most situations.”

2. The increase in the lifetime exemption for estates. If the current law is left unchanged, as of Jan 1, 2026, the present lifetime estate and gift tax exemption will be cut approximately in half. It currently is almost $14 million.

Neiffer is optimistic about the exemption. “I think the likelihood on the estate exemption is very good. I think that’ll stay at least at the current level,” he said.

3. The Section 199A Cap. This provision allows individuals, trusts and estates with pass-through business income to deduct up to 20% of qualified business income (QBI) from taxable ordinary income. Schedule F farmers are also granted the 20% deduction.

While Neiffer said there is some bipartisan support in Congress for extending the Section 199A deduction beyond 2025, he is ambivalent about that happening. “With that 20%, it would be a lot more costly to enact,” he noted.

Practical Next Steps Farmers Can Take
Looking ahead, Neiffer said he believes the likelihood of having a major tax bill before the end of 2025 is slim. At best, the bill would be ready by November or December.

For that reason, Neiffer’s recommendation to farmers is for them to plan on pushing income into 2026 but to have the flexibility to bring that income back into 2025.

“The reason is if the tax cuts don’t get extended that means 2026 tax brackets are going to be a lot higher,” Neiffer explained. “So, we would want to bring income into 2025. Now, farmers have the ability to do that using deferred payment contracts and some other elections that they can make – but only if they plan ahead accordingly. They definitely want to make sure they do that,” he added.

Your next read: It’s Tax Time: Your Guide To Calculate Farm Income

USDA's Rollins: 'Let's Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners' For Trade

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:25:26 GMT

On Brooke Rollins’ first full week on the job as Secretary of Agriculture, she addressed the 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders in Kansas City for the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

High on Rollins’ list of priorities was the topic of trade and President Donald Trump’s vision for U.S. agriculture moving forward.

While Rollins did not shy away from addressing the administration’s decision to implement trade tariffs, noting “farmer and rancher concerns are legitimate,” she focused on what she sees as her role ahead.

“My job is to ensure that as President Trump and our trade representatives are making their decisions that I am in the room and advocating on behalf of our people, on behalf of all of you,” she told Top Producer Summit attendees.

One of her key objectives, she says, is to find and expand market access for U.S. agricultural products domestically and abroad.

“Let’s go barnstorm the world, and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” she says.

Rollins says her goals for trade are a reflection of Trump’s vision and his determination to make agriculture part of the “golden age” he sees ahead for the U.S.

Trump is the consummate deal maker, Rollins notes, able to side-step bureaucracy and red tape in the process to work with world leaders.

“I don’t know that in the last 250 years, we’ve had anyone in office like President Trump,” she says. “He is a very unusual, remarkable and fearless man, and he wants to make a deal, and in the best way, and put America first.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke to a crowd of 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders at the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

(Jim Barcus)

Making Headway With Trade
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, who moderated the conversation with Rollins, highlighted Trump’s work to build trade during his first term.

“He redid USMCA, and now that’s our largest ag partnership, with Mexico and Canada,” Marshall says. “He gave us South Korea and Japan, which has been so important to Kansas and our cattle industry, as well as trade 1.0 with China.”

Marshall then mentioned the headway he believes Trump and team have made with India.

“I see India replacing China as our major trade partner, as well that China is growing right now,” Marshall says. “I think there’s huge opportunities in India.”

U.S. ethanol, cotton and tree nuts are three of the top agricultural exports to India, a country that has in the past impeded agricultural trade with tariffs and non-tariff barriers alike. Trump called out the barriers to trade following recent conversations with India’s Prime Minster Modi.

A joint statement after the Trump-Modi meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to lower tariffs on select U.S. products and increase market access to U.S. farm products, while seeking to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.

Rollins says the progress underway with India was just one step forward to address what she described as a trade crisis for the U.S.

“Our exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to be down $42 billion in the months to come. This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins says.

“We have a tremendous amount of work to do,” she adds. “But my promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years, I will do everything within my power with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work to ensure that we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but that we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

Secretary Rollins joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion about trade policy and tariffs; avian flu; and disaster and economic aid.

Your next read: Senate Overwhelmingly Confirms Brooke Rollins as 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

Senate Overwhelmingly Confirms Brooke Rollins as 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 18:10:35 GMT

Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary , was overwhelmingly confirmed by the Senate on Thursday. The vote was 72-28. Her confirmation was expected, as the Senate maintains its quick pace of confirming President Donald Trump’s key Cabinet positions.

“America’s farmers, ranchers and foresters need a leader at USDA who will be an advocate for their livelihoods and rural America and be a strong voice to address the pressing needs of our agriculture community. Brooke Rollins is that person,” Sen. John Boozman (R-AR), Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, said on the Senate floor prior to the vote.

Congratulations @USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins. We look forward to working together to serve rural America. pic.twitter.com/CIljFpYQZX
— Senate Ag Committee Republicans (@SenateAgGOP) February 13, 2025

“I congratulate Secretary Rollins on her confirmation,” said House Committee Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-MN) in a statement following the vote. “Secretary Rollins begins her new role at a critical time for American agriculture. Family farmers are struggling with high input costs and low prices; tariffs are being proposed that will raise costs on American producers and American consumers; the agricultural workforce is being threatened; and Congress is behind schedule in passing a new, bipartisan farm bill. If we want to tackle these challenges in a way that supports family farmers and the communities they feed, we will need to work together. I look forward to building a strong working relationship with Secretary Rollins as ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee.”

Today, @SecRollins was sworn in as the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. Here’s a snapshot of her first day at USDA! pic.twitter.com/GFpIYdnovF
— Dept. of Agriculture (@USDA) February 14, 2025

Rollins’ close ties to President Trump are viewed as a positive for U.S. agriculture as some say, “she has President Trump’s ear.”

When President Trump made the nomination announcement in November, he said her “commitment to support the American farmer, the defense of American food self-sufficiency and the restoration of agriculture-dependent American small towns is second to none.”

Important Issues in Immediate Focus

Rollins has some important issues to focus on immediately, including:

Reviewing the various USDA grants and other funding that remain frozen;
Getting ag disaster ($21 billion) and economic aid ($10 billion) payments made to eligible producers;
Working with NEC Director Kevin Hassett and others on the bird flu situation;
Monitoring the impact of Trump tariffs on the U.S. ag sector and any need for a farmer aid program
Advising key congressional members on a new farm bill;
Working with Treasury/IRS, EPA and Energy Dept. personnel on finalizing information regarding the 45Z program;
Informing President Trump and others about the impact on farm country from mass deportations relative to border security action;
Checking on and working with other agencies and departments regarding food aid;
Working with her new staff and other key USDA personnel as they officially come into USDA;
Getting ready for fiscal year 2026 budget matters for USDA;
Working with EPA and the Dept. of Energy on the 2026 RFS RVOs;
Dealing with a smaller USDA workforce via buyouts and other actions to reduce the number of government workers;
Addressing issues raised by the GAO relative to operation of the SNAP/food stamps program and other operational aspects of the program should they see any major alternations under budget reconciliation.

Rollins Gets Straight to Work

Rollins already held a meeting at 4 p.m. CT Thursday at USDA on bird flu, gathering who she said were “some of the most brilliant professionals I’ve encountered. Their insights were invaluable.” Rollins will be very visible in the days ahead, she said on X that she will be in four states, give six speeches, attend the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville and “so much more.”

Today, I had the immense honor of being sworn in as the next Secretary of Agriculture by one of my heroes — and a true American judicial titan — Justice Clarence Thomas.

Being surrounded by my precious family as I took the oath of office is a moment I will forever cherish. pic.twitter.com/CrprXOuW7Z
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 14, 2025

A Look Back at Rollins’ Confirmation Hearing

During Rollins’ confirmation hearing in the Senate Ag Committee last month , she outlined several key priorities for USDA if confirmed:

Rapid deployment of disaster and economic assistance authorized by Congress.
Addressing current animal disease outbreaks.
Modernizing and realigning USDA.
Ensuring long-term prosperity for rural communities.

Rollins also clarified her stance on ethanol and RFS, distancing herself from past positions of the Texas Public Policy Foundation:

She stated the Foundation’s position on ethanol/RFS was written a decade ago and was one of 900 to 1,000 papers produced annually.
Rollins emphasized she did not author those papers.
While admitting to being a defender of fossil fuels, she insisted she would be “a secretary for all of agriculture” and a “champion for all fuels.”

Tariff Impact Aid for Farmers

During questioning, Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) asked Rollins about her approach to working with President Trump’s trade agenda. Rollins responded she would prioritize working with the White House to address any challenges farmers and ranchers might face under potential tariff implementations.

Rollins committed to supporting farmers in the case of tariff-related harm:

She pledged to undertake efforts such as the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) via payments from the first Trump administration. MFP was part of a broader effort by USDA to assist farmers impacted by retaliatory tariffs and trade disruptions.
Rollins has consulted with former USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue about the implementation of such programs.

Rollins previously servied as the president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a think tank established by former Trump officials to promote conservative policies.

AFPI has advocated for curbing foreign ownership — particularly from China — of U.S. farmland, an issue with bipartisan support in Congress. She served as the president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) from 2003 to 2018, where she significantly expanded the organization and positioned it as a leading state-based think tank.

Economists Says Rollins is a Positive for U.S. Agriculture

How Farmers Size Up RFK Jr.

(Farm Journal )

80% of economists in the January Ag Economists’ Monthly say Rollins is a positive pick for U.S. agriculture .

“Rollins knows ag and has Trump’s ear,” said one economist.

“Her close connection the President and reasons outlined in the letter sent by 427 ag organizations and businesses on January 15th,” said another economist.

20% of economists say Rollins wouldn’t be positive for U.S. agriculture.

One economist said, “USDA focused heavily on under-served producers during the Vilsack era and my sense is that producers wanted the Secretary to come from a production ag view; whereas Rollins come at it more from an overall domestic policy view. Also, feel the administration isn’t helping her out with the Deputy Secretary nomination. Producers don’t see themselves in the upcoming USDA leadership.”

Ag Groups React to Rollins’ Confirmation

“Congratulations to Secretary Brooke Rollins on her confirmation to lead USDA. America’s pork producers are eager to work with Secretary Rollins to fix the multitude of problems caused by California Proposition 12 and ensure farm families have reasonable policies to pass down our farms to future generations,” said National Pork Producers Council (NPPC).
“On behalf of America’s farmer cooperatives, I would like to congratulate Brooke Rollins on her confirmation as Secretary of Agriculture today. In this role, Secretary Rollins will lead an agency that impacts the operations of every farm and ranch in the country and touches every local community across rural America. She will also serve as the voice of producers within the Trump administration at a critical moment. NCFC looks forward to working with Secretary Rollins on a range of issues within USDA that impact farmer co-ops and their members,” said National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC).
“Congratulations to Secretary Brooke Rollins on her bi-partisan confirmation to become U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. Clearly, President Trump has selected a highly capable and accomplished individual to lead USDA. Secretary Rollins’ commitment to returning USDA to its core mission of supporting all of agriculture is exactly the focus our country needs right now. I am confident that she will be an effective advocate for farmers, ensuring that President Trump’s policies reflect their needs and support the vitality of our rural communities,” said Mike Naig, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture.
“The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) congratulates the Honorable Brooke Rollins on her confirmation to lead USDA as the 33rd U.S. agriculture secretary. Rollin’s policy crafting experience and passion for opportunities for agriculture will contribute tangible impacts for American farmers and ranchers and people around the globe who enjoy U.S. food products.
NASDA is enthusiastic to work with the secretary on our priorities including increasing economic opportunities for farmers, ranchers and food producers, advancing a new farm bill, improving Americans’ access to nutrient-dense foods and ensuring American agriculture can continue to provide the most secure, affordable and nutritious food supply in the world,” NASDA said in a statement.
“Secretary Rollins understands the pain points the agriculture industry faces and has a plan to address these right away,” Hawkins said. “She understands the importance of a strong safety net and is prepared to work with Congress to implement a modernized Farm Bill. She will work with farmers to eliminate burdensome and costly regulations that hamper innovation, will spearhead animal disease prevention and mitigation, and will identify new export channels across the globe to support markets. Raised in rural Texas, Secretary Rollins knows the importance of strengthening our rural communities and making them a great place to live, work, and raise our families. We are thrilled with her bipartisan confirmation and welcome the opportunity to work with her to advance the agriculture industry,” said Missouri Farm Bureau President Garrett Hawkins.
Michael Dykes, President and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), expressed confidence in Rollins’ capabilities.
“IDFA congratulates Ms. Rollins on her confirmation to lead USDA as the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. We’re confident she will be a strong voice for the U.S. food and agriculture industry across the federal government. As USDA navigates a dynamic trade environment, we need Secretary Rollins’ leadership to expand U.S. dairy exports, support a coordinated response to animal disease outbreaks, and preserve dairy’s critical place in federal nutrition programs, including SNAP milk and dairy nutrition incentives, WIC and school meals. IDFA looks forward to working with Secretary Rollins at USDA to strengthen Americans’ dietary health, support farmers and the entire dairy supply chain in the production of wholesome food, and build a regulatory environment that promotes innovation, growth and food safety. These efforts will enable our industry to continue leading the world in the production of high-quality, nutritious dairy foods,” Dykes stated.

Congratulations, @BrookeLRollins on your confirmation to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture @USDA . We look forward to working with you to be a strong voice for the U.S. food and agriculture industry, expand U.S. dairy exports, support a coordinated response to animal… pic.twitter.com/1pqhNrzDnc
— IDFA (@dairyidfa) February 13, 2025

Rollins and will now finish assembling her team at USDA. Here are the key appointments already made by President Trump:

Stephen Vaden: Nominated for Deputy USDA Secretary

Undersecretary Nominees

Richard Fordyce: Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation
Dudley Hoskins: Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs
Luke Lindberg: Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs
Michael Boren: Undersecretary for Natural Resources and Environment
Scott Hutchins: Undersecretary for Research, Education and Economics

Senior Staff Appointments:

Kailee Tkacz Buller: Chief of Staff at USDA
Preston Parry: Deputy Chief of Staff
Jennifer Tiller: Chief of Staff to the Deputy Secretary and Senior Advisor to the Secretary for Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services
Dominic Restuccia: White House Liaison for USDA
Ralph Linden: Principal Deputy General Counsel
Audra Weeks: Deputy Director of Communications

Natural Resources and Environment Appointments

Kristin Sleeper: Deputy Under Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment
Tom Schultz: Chief of Staff for Natural Resources and Environment

Other Notable Appointments

Brooke Appleton: Deputy Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation
Tyler Clarkson: USDA General Counsel

10 Charts to Explain What's Shaping the Ag Economy to Start 2025

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 15:03:32 GMT

Last year’s initial net farm income forecast showed the two largest consecutive declines in net farm income history, the picture seems to be improving in 2025.

According to USDA’s Economic Research Service, the first net farm income forecast of the year shows net farm income is expected to reach $180.1 billion, up $41 billion from 2024, while net cash farm income is projected to hit $193.7 billion, a $34.5 billion increase. A staggering 34.5% increase in government payments, from $9.3 billion in 2024 to $42.4 billion in 2025, is the key factor behind the income boost.

Yet, when you look at the specifics, economists continue to be more bullish when it comes to livestock, specifically cattle.

Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

According to economists in the January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, shrinking supplies and strong demand are the two major drivers of the historic run in cattle prices. And that’s why out of the 10 major commodities, economists are most bullish on cattle in 2025.

Recession in Row Crops?

Even with the expectation for improved net farm income, with a 34% increase in expected government payments, ag economists are still concerned about the current state of the ag economy for the row crop sector. Sixty-four percent of economists say the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, 36% say it’s not.

Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“A modest recovery in prices for some major crops has slightly improved the current state of the farm economy, and the outlook has brightened somewhat as well,” said one economist in the anonymous Monthly Monitor survey. “The prospect of economic assistance and disaster payments also improves the farm income outlook in 2025.”

“For row crop profitability, corn and soybean prices have seen some improvement recently offering some decent pricing opportunities, but some farmers may not have any old crop to sell now to take advantage of improved prices,” said another economist. “Without additional price improvement, there is still poor profitability outlook for new crop. But when you look at demand opportunities, there are a lot of unknowns about the future demand for trade and biofuels in the Trump administration. It could be positive or negative and will likely be impactful over the next 12 months.”

Those who argue agriculture is not in a recession, say it’s because:

$31 billion in direct payments and disaster aid passed by Congress in December.
The fact strong land values and rents have slowed their increases yet have not seen any significant declines

“We are not in a recession when farmers were still paying off pre-bought 2025 input expenses in 2024 to minimize 2024 tax bills, nor when land values and cash rents are holding as well as they are. There are producers that are over extended and all crop producers are making adjustments, but these are the ebbs and flows that the agricultural industry has managed for decades,” one economist said. “The expectations are changing to expect downside risk, and so people aren’t planning for the downside, and those that do are being penalized.”

Consolidation Concerns

Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

With concerns about a recession, the survey then asked economists if the current environment will accelerate consolidation, and an overwhelming number of economists, 86%, said yes.

Those economists who think it will force consolidation said:

“Probably mostly in the related industries as they try to consolidate to protect profit margins as producers maybe pull back on input choices or become much more price-conscious.”
“Farmers will think about exiting earlier, debt/income ratio”
“It’s only the most cost-efficient survive.”
“More people are exiting because they have little choice. Much consolidation would be happening even if the market situation were better.”
“Low margin producers will always be squeezed out by these type of times.”
“The ability of larger producers to spread costs over a larger number of acres.”
“Semi-retired farmers tend to call it quits during a down cycle. Farms that rent a substantial portion of their acreage find it increasingly difficult to sustain high cash rents.”

However, other economists argue the downturn hasn’t lasted long enough to force consolidation.

“If the current situation persists for several years, then yes. At this point, it’s too early and not severe enough,” one economist said.

The Main Factors Driving the Ag Economy

When asked to list the main factors driving the health of the ag economy right now, ag economists said:

Poor grain prices offset by improving livestock margins
Biofuel policies, tariffs, commodity prices
The potential for a trade war with China
South America’s crop
Ad hoc government payments
Improved grain ending stocks in the U.S.
Lower costs for fuel and interest

Trump’s Priorities and the Impact on Ag

The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor released this week asked which of Trump’s priorities will have the most negative impact on agriculture. Seventy-nine percent said it’s trade and tariffs. Twenty-two percent said border security and deportation.

When asked which of the president’s priorities would have the most positive impact on agriculture, 54% of economists said cutting regulations, and 38% said tax changes.

January Ag Economists’ Monthy Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Tariffs on the U.S.'s top three trading partners could have a major impact on agriculture. The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists which input is most at risk. The top answer was fertilizer.

“From a headline standpoint, it’s probably potash,” says Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst, Rabobank. “We get 85% to 90% of our potash from imports from the Canadian market. The residual is made up by Russia and Israel, in principle, with some other markets coming in.”

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Direct Payments to Farmers

As USDA noted in its 2025 net farm income forecast this week, Congress included economic aid for farmers in the continuing resolution (CR) . The “Economic Loss Assistance Program” earmarked $10 billion in direct payments for farmers, which is expected to improve the net farm income picture this year.

Farmers are still waiting for the payments from USDA, but it’s been called a “cash infusion” into the farm sector.

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Montior

(Lindsey Pound )

The January Monthly Monitor asked economists if those payments were needed in agriculture. Sixty-four percent said yes, and 36% said no.

In the survey, of the economists who said the payments were needed, some of the reasons why include:

Land values continue to climb
Input costs will remain elevated and inefficient farmers that overleveraged themselves the past couple years will remain in business
Delays producers cutting fixed costs, especially cash rents

But not all economists agree the payments were needed, warning of some unintended consequences, including prolonging what some economists argue are adjustments needed in the industry. In the survey, economists said:

“I think there could be some pushback when the longer-term farm bill comes up for authorization with budget hawks pointing to the $10 billion as a down payment of sorts.”
“This will slow some adjustments that arguably are needed. For example, land rents are generally higher than can be justified by current market returns. Getting approval for another round of payments in 2025 is far from certain, so unless markets improve considerably, there could be a renewed financial squeeze in 2026.”

Future of the Farm Bill

Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

The Senate and House leadership for both Ag Committees have made clear they want to see a farm bill early this year. Fifty-seven percent of economists think it will be the second half of this year before Congress passes a new farm bill. Twenty-nine percent say 2026, and 14% of economists still think Congress will pass a new farm bill the first half of 2025.

45Z and Impact on Farmers

In the Biden administration’s final days in office, USDA finally released an interim rule establishes guidelines for quantifying, reporting and verifying the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of biofuel feedstock commodity crops grown in the U.S.

The Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) also issued preliminary guidance on the 45Z tax credit in January, which was created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act), including the addition of sorghum as a crop that could qualify as a feedstock for a fuel that can claim the 45Z credit if certain climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices are followed.

The Treasury also released a notice that provides the emissions rate table for the 45Z credit.

Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

The January Monthly Monitor asked if the rule becomes final, when it could impact farmers and ethanol producers. Fifty-five percent said it could impact them as soon as the second half of this year.

Trump’s Key Cabinet Picks

Rollins and RJK Jr. in Farm Country

(Farm Journal )

The future of 45Z is now up to the Trump administration.

Late last month, Brooke Rollins, Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary , powered through her confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Ag Committee . The Senate still needs to vote on her confirmation, but no timeline has been given on when that vote will happen yet.

Eighty percent of economists in the January Ag Economists’ Monthly say if confirmed, Rollins is a positive pick for U.S. agriculture.

“Rollins knows ag and has Trump’s ear,” said one economist.
“Her close connection the president and reasons outlined in the letter sent by 427 ag organizations and businesses on Jan. 15,” said another economist.

Twenty percent of economists say Rollins wouldn’t be positive for U.S. agriculture.

One economist said, “USDA focused heavily on under-served producers during the Vilsack era and my sense is that producers wanted the Secretary to come from a production ag view; whereas Rollins comes at it more from an overall domestic policy view. Also, I feel the administration isn’t helping her out with the Deputy Secretary nomination. Producers don’t see themselves in the upcoming USDA leadership.”

However, economists aren’t as confident that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, will be a positive for U.S. agriculture. Ninety percent of the economists surveyed said no.

One economist said, “His disrespect for science is troubling.” Another economist weighed in by saying, “His positions on crop protection will be an interesting storyline to watch early in 2025.”

However, not all economists think RFK Jr. would be bad for agriculture. In fact, one economist thinks he could actually restore confidence in agriculture.

“Improving health outcomes, even if over a longer time period, should improve the consumer opinion of agriculture and be a net gain overall,” one economist said in the anonymous survey.

Government Payments Drive U.S. Farm Income Surge in 2025

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 22:04:29 GMT

The U.S. farm sector is poised for a significant increase in net farm income in 2025, primarily driven by an unprecedented rise in government payments, despite a decline in overall farm revenues.

According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, net farm income is forecast to reach $180.1 billion, up $41.0 billion from 2024, while net cash farm income is projected to hit $193.7 billion, reflecting a $34.5 billion increase.

Government Payments Drive Growth

A staggering 345% increase in government payments — rising from $9.3 billion in 2024 to $42.4 billion in 2025 — is the key factor behind this income boost.

This surge is largely attributed to ad hoc disaster and economic assistance, totaling $35.7 billion, approved by Congress in December. Other direct payment programs, such as Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC), are also projected to rise significantly.

Farm Income and Ad Hoc Aid

(John Newton, Terrain)

Farm Expenses Declining

Despite increasing costs in labor, livestock purchases and seed, overall farm expenses are forecast to decline slightly to $450.4 billion in 2025, continuing a downward trend from 2023. Key reductions include lower expenditures on feed, fertilizer, and pesticides.

Economic and Policy Implications

While the increase in government payments has bolstered working capital and improved financial health indicators, concerns persist regarding the long-term sustainability of farm support programs. With farm receipts declining and tariff uncertainties looming, lawmakers may face renewed pressure to reform the farm safety net in future legislation.

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Key Takeaways from Brooke Rollins' Confirmation Hearing for Agriculture Secretary

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 17:19:55 GMT

Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary , addressed several issues during her confirmation hearing on Jan. 23 in an attempt to position herself as a supporter of diverse agricultural interests and commit to protecting producers.

In her opening statement, Rollins outlined several key priorities for USDA if confirmed, as is expected:

Rapid deployment of disaster and economic assistance authorized by Congress.
Addressing current animal disease outbreaks.
Modernizing and realigning USDA.
Ensuring long-term prosperity for rural communities.

Ethanol and Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Rollins clarified her stance on ethanol and RFS, distancing herself from past positions of the Texas Public Policy Foundation:

She stated the Foundation’s position on ethanol/RFS was written a decade ago and was one of 900 to 1,000 papers produced annually.
Rollins emphasized she did not author those papers.
While admitting to being a defender of fossil fuels, she insisted she would be “a secretary for all of agriculture” and a “champion for all fuels.”

When asked again on biofuel policy, Rollins said, “Everyone knows where the president is on this.”

The regulatory effort under the first Trump administration to make sales of E15 available year-round, Rollins noted, was not developed by the domestic policy office that she headed but she still said she looked forward to working on the issue ahead. She also committed to working with Treasury secretary-designate Scott Bessent on the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit. And she will make sure Bessent has the “data and the voices around him to make the right decisions.”

Tariff Impact Aid for Farmers

During questioning, Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) asked Rollins about her approach to working with President Trump’s trade agenda. Rollins responded that she would prioritize working with the White House to address any challenges farmers and ranchers might face under potential tariff implementations.

Rollins committed to supporting farmers in case of tariff-related harm:

She pledged to undertake efforts like the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) via payments from the first Trump administration. MFP was part of a broader effort by USDA to assist farmers impacted by retaliatory tariffs and trade disruptions.
Rollins has consulted with former USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue about the implementation of such programs.

On trade, Rollins committed to using USDA programs and policies to bring the trade deficit in agriculture down to zero. But Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) countered that things like a stronger dollar and other factors were bigger components of the agriculture trade deficit rather than a failure of USDA policy.

Proposition 12

Rollins committed to working with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and others on addressing Prop 12 as it is affecting several states.

Commitment to Agriculture and Public Service

Rollins emphasized her dedication to the agricultural sector.

“My role is to defend, honor and elevate our entire ag community in the oval office ... to ensure that every decision made has that front of mind,” she states.

Rollins shared a personal detail about her family. She revealed her mother was the oldest freshman in the Texas legislature, highlighting her family’s history of public service.

Bottom line: These statements demonstrate Rollins’ attempt to position herself as a supporter of diverse agricultural interests, including both traditional and renewable fuels, while also showing her commitment to protecting farmers from potential trade-related challenges.

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