Forecast

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:48:44 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:36:01 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

Your next read: 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

A Warming Trend Is On The Way For Early March

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 22:01:55 GMT

If early March weather rolls out the way some ag industry experts are predicting, farmers might be tempted to break out their shorts and sunscreen.

“It’s going to be warm, very warm for most of March,” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Services said on the latest Moving Iron podcast, with Host Casey Seymore.

Above average temperatures for much of the U.S. are in the forecast for March 2-6, 2025.

(NOAA)

What’s at play currently, Hackett said, is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that could take temperatures a notch higher than usual during the next few weeks.

Hackett said the polar stratosphere is in the middle stages of developing what he called “one of the top five strongest sudden stratospheric warming events” he’s ever seen going into early March.

“The stratosphere, which normally is super cold, gets displaced and you get this extreme warming above the North Pole. When that happens, then the entire stratosphere gets unstable and starts to lose its cohesiveness,” explained Hackett, whose interest in the weather is fueled by what it can mean to grain markets.

His hope, in fact, is that the weather in early March could be a positive catalyst for grain markets. “It could offer a tremendous cash selling opportunity not only for the old crop but maybe even for the new crop that’s coming along,” Hackett said.

Maybe A Short-Lived Weather Pattern?
But don’t expect higher temperatures to persist beyond the next few weeks. There will likely be colder conditions coming in right behind them by late March to early April, according to Ag Meteorologist Drew Lerner, founder and owner of World Weather, Inc.

Lerner told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week he believes two things will come out of the current weather pattern and then go through spring.

First, Lerner believes the moisture availability in the upper Midwest and parts of the western Corn Belt will continue to be lighter than normal, which will encourage farmers to plant.

Second, he believes the risk of late-season frost and freeze across corn and soybean country will be much higher in 2025 than it has been in recent past years.

“We may see a period like right now, where we warm up nicely, and crops will take advantage of that and really get going aggressively. Then, we could turn around and bring a cold wave in and knock those crops down,” Lerner told Flory. “That’s one of my biggest concerns for spring, besides the dryness we already mentioned in the western Corn Belt.

Conditions in the West, Southwest and portions of the Midwest are going to continue to be dry, as March gets underway.

(Eric Snodgrass, U.S. Meterologist)

“I do think, though, with that aside, we will see aggressive planting this spring in the western and central parts of the Midwest, because I don’t think we’re going to have so much moisture around that we can’t be that way,” Lerner added.

Beware Of Frost And Freeze
Hackett’s prediction for April weather coincides with Lerner’s concerns. Going back to his prediction for a sudden stratospheric warming in early March, Hackett said that what often follows an SSW about 45 days later is a cooling off trend.

“You have the potential for some very cold, wintry type of weather that can easily bring in a hard freeze. That should create a considerable amount of unfavorable planting season, either delayed planting or planting that gets done and gets frozen over and replanting winter wheat that gets frost as it comes out of dormancy,” Hackett said.

Ken Ferrie recalls farmers in western Illinois were planting early soybeans by March 21 in 2024. He encouraged farmers who want to plant early to exercise some caution.

“An important consideration is whether you have crop insurance,” said Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

For farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt, Lerner said he doesn’t believe they will be able to plant as quickly as their western brethren because of excess moisture the region has received through the Ohio Valley and is likely to continue to get this spring.

Expect Temperatures To ‘Bounce Around’
As for temperatures, Lerner believes they will average close to normal but will bounce around this spring. “So we’ll be warm, and then we’ll get cold, and we’ll go back into warm again,” he said.

Flory asked Lerner whether he would put some odds on the potential for drought conditions this summer.

“I’d say that we probably have a 25% to 30% chance that we could have a more serious dryness problem in the West. But I am being conservative with that, possibly. I really want to see what happens over these next three to four weeks,” Lerner said.

“There’s no meteorologist out there that I know of that’s ever predicted a bad drought in the summer this far in advance, and I’m not going to be the first one,” Lerner added. “I’ll leave that up for somebody else.”

You can hear Lerner’s conversation with Chip Flory here:

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 20:25:11 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

Your Next Read: Ag Tech and Machinery Trends to Track for 2025

Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 20:30:45 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

Will the U.S. Corn Crop Bake In the July Heat? What You Need to Know About the July Forecast

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:03:38 GMT

The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.

Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.

With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.

“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Rain Chances in July

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook . NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.

Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.

“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”

Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.

“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.

According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.

“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.

Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.

“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”

The July Heat

What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.

“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”

30-day temperature outlook

(CPC )

Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.

“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”

Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.

This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.

Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.

“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.

He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.

“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”

Summer 2024 Predicted to Bring on the Heat

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 18:58:44 GMT

Bust out the sunscreen and cattle misters. It’s gonna be a hot one this summer if USDA meteorological predictions are correct.

Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub , shared on a recent webinar sponsored by the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation that current weather patterns are signaling excessive summer heat ahead.

He said the outlook for July, August, and September is for above-average temperatures in virtually the entire country. The areas showing the greatest likelihood for above-average temperatures are the western third of the country -- minus a band on the far west coast that includes most of California – and the upper New England states.

The precipitation outlook, on the other hand, is neutral, except for a two-to-three-states-deep region along the entire eastern seaboard, which models show having a likelihood of above-average precipitation.

Todey said there are strong signals that the U.S. is in a “rapid transition” between a strong “El Nino” weather pattern to an equally prominent “La Nina” pattern – a shift that will likely occur sometime between June and August 2024.

The current El Nino was short-lived, lasting only about a year, and followed 3 years of a La Nina pattern. El Nino patterns are typically associated with mild winters. This was certainly the case in 23-24, which posted near-record warmest winter temperatures in December, January, and February. The states with the most pronounced warmth compared to normal winter temps included North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and the New England states up to Maine.

La Nina is the opposite counterpart of El Nino. In its most recent, 3-year stretch, it coincided with dry weather in a large part of the country. Todey said Iowa – the nation’s largest corn-producing state – has been in a consistent D1 (moderate) drought since July 2021, a record length for the USDA Drought Monitor.

As of the first week of April 2024, pockets of “Extreme” drought were noted by the Drought Monitor in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and Texas. Southeastern New Mexico also has an area of “Exceptional” drought, which is the highest categorization of drought status by the Drought Monitor.

“We can’t say for sure whether the next La Nina will perpetuate dry conditions, but there is also no strong indicator of precipitation,” noted Todey. “We will likely be very reliant on getting rainfalls at the right time through the summer.”

The meteorologist has observed an interesting shift in precipitation patterns that is affecting growing seasons. “In terms of temperatures, we’re seeing an increase in growing season length by about 10 days per decade,” he noted. “At the same time, there has been a 20-year trend of midsummer dryness, with more annual rainfall arriving in the spring.”

Coming out of a warm winter is affecting moisture levels on hand. Todey said the lack of frozen soils allowed moisture to absorb more readily – the good news. But the bad news is that warmer temps caused evapo-transpiration to occur at a higher rate. Essentially, the two factors cancelled each other out.

“Iowa is currently at ground-zero for driest soil conditions,” he declared. “While not as widespread, some of those conditions also exist in parts of Missouri and Kansas. It seems probable that we’ll need to preserve moisture this year.”

Looking toward the planting season and beyond, Todey offered the following advice:

Pull back on yield goals for crop projections and inputs. Lackluster soil moisture recovery could limit the effectiveness of fertilizer.
Plant as early as possible to take advantage of spring moisture.
Reduce tillage – every time you do a tillage pass, you lose moisture.
Closely monitor well and groundwater sources upon which you rely for livestock and/or irrigation, so you can proactively develop alternative plans if necessary.

The full webinar and additional comments from Todey can be viewed here .

For more on weather, read:

Winter Weather: Find Out What's in Store for Agriculture

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 18:52:06 GMT

The upcoming winter is shaping up to look a bit different than the past several years. The shift to a different weather pattern, El Nino, is in the works – resulting in a very strong subtropical jet stream and a weakened polar jet stream.

Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, shares the predictable changes to North American weather those involved in the agriculture industry should be on the lookout for.

Northern Weather Will Be Drier
One of the common changes Rippey shares is unusually mild weather across the northern tier of the U.S. The mild weather is a result of the weak polar jet stream and affects areas stretching all the way from the Pacific Northwest to New England.

“That of course has implications for winter crops,” Rippey says. You don’t get as much establishment of a snow cover, but at the same time, you don’t have a whole lot of cold weather to deal with and there’s less concern for winter kill. So, it’s kind of a tradeoff there.”

(Farm Journal)

Along with the milder temperatures, northern states are also predicted to see drier conditions this winter.

An outlook published by NOAA in late September shows between a 33 to 50% chance of below average precipitation for a portion of the northern U.S between November and March. The areas NOAA expects the largest impact are the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region.

(Farm Journal)

The dry, warm conditions have the potential to make this planting season an early one.

“It all depends on how the snow falls, but generally speaking, soil temperatures will likely not be as cold as they were in the spring of 2023,” Rippey says. “Given the mild, dry forecast, there may be a fairly quick planting season in the north for spring 2024.”

The Story for Southern States is Much Different
“The enhanced subtropical jet stream tends to bring stronger storms across the southern tier of the United States,” Rippey says. “Sometimes that affects Southern California but it’s more likely along the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic coast.”

NOAA’s predication maps show the highest probability of above average rainfall – 50 to 60% – for states along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.

The increased precipitation in those areas is something Rippey says could help with low water levels from the summer’s drought.

“As we get deeper into autumn and the heart of winter, the odds most definitely increase we will see wetter conditions in places like Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi where we’ve got not only low water levels impacting navigation, but also the saltwater intrusion from the Gulf,” he says. “It may take a while but eventually as the winter proceeds, we should see relief especially in the southern part of the basin.”

The Wild Card to Watch For
A less clear aspect for this winter’s forecast could be due to elevated oceanic temperatures, which have the potential to keep global temperatures high through the winter and into 2024.

The high oceanic temperatures produce blocking high pressure systems, which Rippey says can be blamed for Canada’s wildfire season and recent heat waves and fires in Europe.

“If some of the oceanic temperatures continue to induce weird blocking patterns, that can lead to extremes like heat, cold, droughts and floods that’s generally independent from El Nino,” he says.

Effects on South American Production
El Nino has different implications for growers in South America.

Key production agriculture areas such as southern Brazil and Argentina are just moving into their spring growing season and the El Nino weather patterns are expected to create more favorable conditions for their crops than La Nina.

“From a crop production standpoint, I would expect improving conditions in some of the areas that have been impacted by drought over the last few years,” Rippey says. “As you move northward into the Amazon basin, El Nino can trigger drought. That’s a concern from an ecological standpoint and that drought often extends into places like Mexico and the Caribbean for as long as El Nino persists.”

Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:41:42 GMT

It’s been the talk of the coffee shop – scientists have been forecasting the development of El Niño for months and issued the first El Niño Watch on April 13. In the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monthly outlook released on Thursday, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, meaning El Niño conditions are now present and expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, but the impacts on the climate extend far beyond. The natural climate phenomenon occurs on average every two to seven years.

“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” says Michelle L’Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño . For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”

El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is expected to be weak during the summer months and then become more pronounced in late fall through spring. By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño, and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing.

Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California up the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Niño winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.

While most headlines highlight how El Niño can bring historic heat around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

Since 1970, Snodgrass says there have been 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had yields slightly above trendline.

“This means we generally think of El Niño summers having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms,” says Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions.

While El Niño will likely lead to additional wet weather across the southern tier of the country, including the Southern Great Plains, Brad Rippey, U.S. analyst and drought monitor author for USDA, says the recent rain in Texas can’t necessarily be linked to El Niño-related rainfall.

El Niño isn’t to blame for the current drought problems across the U.S. either, he adds. An extremely stubborn atmospheric block of high pressure is situated across northern Canada, which is effectively keeping cold fronts from reaching the Midwest or the Northeast.

“It keeps tropical moisture from working its way up from the South, and it serves as almost a complete block on rainfall reaching some of the nation’s key agricultural areas,” he describes. “Until that block breaks down, we will not see appreciable rain.”

Fall Forecast: Expect it to be Hotter and Drier Than Normal

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

The rustling of the corn stalks and the slow fade of green from the trees means Fall is officially on its way. But the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center suggests Summer may stick around a little longer than normal this year.

Temperature Outlook

According to the August Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks , Fall temperatures in September through November are estimated to be warmer than normal. As harvest season approaches, most of the country’s thermometers have a 40-50% chance of seeing higher than normal temps. However, areas in the Northeast and Southwest have a greater chance of seeing Summer temperatures linger. Colorado is almost guaranteed to see hotter than normal weather this Fall, with the likelihood of higher temperatures standing at 70-80%.

Precipitation Outlook

Drought has burdened the High Plains, South and West this year, and unfortunately, it appears that trend may continue into the Fall season. Most of the country will likely see less precipitation this coming season compared to previous years. Less rain is predicted to fall in a large pocket out West, while the same scenario is forecasted to hit areas of Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.

First Thing Today: Hot, Dry Forecast for Spring Wheat Country

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 07:45:15 GMT

Firmer tone ahead of reports... Grain traders are favoring the upside as they prepare for the onslaught of USDA data today. Corn and soybean futures are both mostly 3 to 4 cents higher. Wheat futures are up 12 to 16 cents, with the HRS market again leading the charge. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly, as are crude oil futures.

All eyes on USDA... USDA’s much-anticipated Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports arrive at 11:00 a.m. CT today. Traders expect USDA to report corn plantings fell slightly while soybean plantings climbed a bit from March intentions to 89.903 million acres and 89.750 million acres, respectively. All wheat plantings are expected to come in around 46.070 million acres, up marginally from March. Cotton acres are also expected to climb slightly to 12.233 million acres. June 1 corn and soybean stocks are expected to come in at their third highest level on record at 5.123 billion bu. and 983 million bu., respectively. Quarterly wheat stocks are expected to come in around 1.137 billion bu., Their highest level since 1988.

Hot, dry forecast for spring wheat country... The National Weather Service forecast for July 5-9 calls for heat across the country, with western areas of the Northern Plains expected to see some of the highest temps. Adding to worries, NWS also anticipates the weather will be dry for the Northern Plains and into Minnesota, as well as in Texas. This is concerning for an already-battered spring wheat crop that will be in its key grain filling stage, as well as for the corn crop that will be nearing pollination. Above-normal precip is likely for southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt.

Heat wave pulls French wheat crop ratings lower... As expected, French soft wheat crop ratings fell the week ended June 26 as a heat wave took a toll on the crop. FranceAgriMer lowered the amount of soft wheat rated good to excellent by 3 percentage points to 65%, which is equal to year-ago at this point. The hot, dry conditions have also accelerated crop development, leading to an early start to harvest. Four percent of the crop was harvested as of Monday, the French farm office reports. The recent heatwave also prompted the European Commission to lower its estimate of common wheat usable production (excluding durum) by 2.4 MMT to 138.9 MMT.

Conaway reaches deal on ag budget cuts... House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) late Thursday said he reached agreement with the Budget Committee on a cut to food stamp spending. “As far as Ag Committee and Budget, we’re done,” he said. Conaway did not provide details of his agreement but said he agreed to specific cuts the House ag panel would have to abide by in the fiscal 2018 budget. He indicated that the cut would be small enough to make it politically feasible to move forward later this year with developing a new farm bill. Conaway also said he still plans to act on a farm bill through regular order late this year or early in 2018.

New CBO baseline signals 2018 farm bill spending levels... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Thursday released an updated 10-year baseline of federal revenue and spending that includes projected costs of mandatory farm and nutrition programs. CBO estimates spending on agriculture will amount to $137 billion between fiscal 2018 and 2027, while the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamps) will cost $679 billion over the same decade. The shifts in the baseline put even more pressure on farm-state lawmakers to determine how to divvy up what appears to be a smaller pie. Get more details .

Trade talks between the U.K. and U.S. ahead... The U.K. and U.S. will begin “actual discussions” over a post-Brexit trade agreement on July 24, U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox told BBC TV’s Question Time. Britain cannot formally sign trade deals with other countries until it leaves the EU in March 2019, but it can lay the groundwork for them so they can be ratified soon after.

Uptick in Chinese manufacturing for June... China’s manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in June, as the world’s second-largest economy continues to confound expectations for a slowdown. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.7, compared to a reading of 51.2 in May. Investors also digested economic data out of Japan, but local equities sold off following the fall in tech stocks overnight.

U.S. and Mexico expected to officially sign a deal on sugar trade as soon as today... The suspension trade agreement reduces the amount of refined sugar Mexico can export to the U.S. The deal will be implemented on Oct. 1 for the start of the 2018 fiscal year. President Donald Trump commented on the deal on Thursday, saying it “is a very good one for both Mexico and the U.S.” Officials with both the Corn Refiners Association and the American Sugar Alliance agree.

Perdue in China to mark return of U.S. beef... USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue is in China to mark the official return of U.S. beef to the Asian nation. He’ll meet with China’s Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang. Perdue also will join U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad and cut prime rib from Nebraska to celebrate the move. China has rapidly become a major importer of beef. USDA said the first shipment of U.S. beef arrived in China on June 19. Han told Perdue and Branstad that agriculture deals between China and the U.S. would improve the well-being of the two peoples, and would aid in particular the farm industry of the U.S.

Ranchers in Brazil say a FMD vaccination overhaul is needed... Cattle ranchers in Brazil are pushing for an overhaul of the country’s vaccination program against Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), which was one of the issues that led to the U.S. banning imports of fresh beef from the country. CNPC, a national council of cattle ranchers, asked the government to cut doses in half, change the location where the vaccine is administered from the muscle to just under the skin and to remove a substance called saponin from the vaccine. The group also believes the mandatory, twice annual vaccination should be eliminated in 12 states that have not reported a case of FMD in 20 years.

More lower cash cattle trade... Cash cattle trade picked up between $118 and $120 across the Plains yesterday, which was down from week-ago, as expected. The June contract that expires at noon today is trading in line with the upper end of this week’s action, while the August contract holds around a $1.50 discount to the low end of that range.

Neutral H&P Report... Yesterday’s Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report show the U.S. hog herd stands at a record-level, but that was not surprising. All Hogs & Pigs, Kept for Breeding and Kept for Marketing all came in basically in line with expectations. This means traders will likely quickly shift their attention back to the cash hog market and whether it is working on a top. Yesterday, cash bids strengthened across much of Midwest, with the exception of the eastern Corn Belt.

Overnight demand news... Jordan bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat from optional origins. It also issued a new tender to buy 100,000 MT of feed barley from optional origins.

Today’s reports:

11:00 a.m., Acreage -- ERS
11:00 a.m., Grain Stocks -- ERS
2:00 p.m., International Food Security Assessment -- ERS

Weather Could Turn Warmer, Drier Than Normal for Spring Planting

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:05:54 GMT

Another round of winter weather blasted the country this week, with record-breaking arctic air blanketing much of the country.

The cold, wet weather pattern won’t seem to budge, but things could be turning around. U.S. Farm Report meteorologist Mike Hoffman says his 90-day forecast looks promising, especially for April, just in time for spring planting.

First Thing Today: Hot, Dry Forecast for Northern Plains, Western Corn Belt

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 04:42:03 GMT

Good morning!

There was no grain or soy trade overnight due to the July Fourth holiday.

More hot, dry weather expected for the Northern Plains, western Corn Belt... .Red flag warnings are currently in effect for Montana, though thunderstorms are expected to move through the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today. The National Weather Service forecast for July 10-14 calls for hot, dry conditions across the western Corn Belt and Northern Plans, and normal temps and precip for most of the eastern Corn Belt. Trends typically accelerate or reverse coming out of the Fourth of July, so whether traders focus on today’s rain event or the forecast through mid-month will be key.

Cordonnier expects steady to lower crop condition ratings... South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier expects crop condition ratings to remain steady or drop a point or two in USDA’s update this afternoon, detailing that conditions in the eastern Corn Belt may improve after recent rains, while conditions in the western Belt will likely decline. He elaborates that the areas where soil moisture is driest and therefore of most concern include: South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota. Cordonnier left his corn and soybean average yield estimates at 167 bu. per acre and 48 bu. per acre, respectively, but he has a neutral to lower bias toward both crops. “I feel there is more of a downside risk than upside potential for the soybean crop,” he explains.

Aggressive Chinese bean buys lead to port congestion... Ships carrying up to 700,000 MT of soybeans are waiting to discharge along China’s coast, traders report. The country has been an aggressive buyer of soybeans in recent months, plus it has toughened import customs inspections, leading to major port congestion and pushing stockpiles to their highest levels in years. There is concern that the lengthy wait times may curb the recent rally in Chinese soymeal prices and threaten demand.

Brazil shipping beans at a record clip... Brazil’s grains exporters’ association Anec says the country shipped a record 45.5 MMT of soybeans the first half of the year, and it expects shipments of 7 MMT in July. The country’s trade ministry data shows bean exports totaled roughly 10.960 MMT in May and 9.197 MMT in June. For the entire calendar year, Anec expects Brazil’s soybean exports to total between 61 MMT and 62 MMT.

Good corn yields in Argentina making up for crop losses... Argentina’s 2016-17 corn crop will likely total 39 MMT with a national average yield around 8.5 MMT per hectares, reports the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. While floods have slowed harvest, farmers and analysts report that higher-than-expected yields have helped make up for the moisture-related crop losses. The wet weather has extended its usual May to June harvest season into July, which will also push back its export season. This could make it even tougher for the U.S. to ship its crops this fall.

FOMC minutes to be released this afternoon... At 1 p.m. CT, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 13-14 monetary policy meeting will be published. Investors will look for clues as to the timing of the start of the reduction in the bank’s $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Fed officials have indicated there is a strong chance they will announce in September a decision to start shrinking the central bank’s portfolio, while putting off until December any further interest-rate increase. A shift towards more hawkish language by several major central banks has dominated the past week. The market will also search the Fed minutes for signs of more concern among policymakers about a downturn in inflation and activity in the United States.

U.S. confirms North Korea test of intercontinental ballistic missile... With North Korea’s launch on Tuesday of what the Trump administration confirmed was an intercontinental ballistic missile, experts say the North Koreans had crossed a threshold with a missile that could potentially strike Alaska. The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting later today, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson calling North Korea’s actions a “new escalation of the threat” to the U.S. and its allies. Tillerson said the U.S. would consider nations that provide economic or military help to North Korea to be “aiding and abetting a dangerous regime.” The U.S. and South Korea fired ballistic missiles off the Korean Peninsula this morning.

European Union and Japan to announce outline of trade agreement... Leaders from both trading blocs will soon announce a broad agreement that could create a free-trade zone to rival the North American Free Trade Agreement. The deal is expected on Thursday. Japanese public broadcaster NHK said today they had mostly resolved their main differences: dairy products and autos. Japan will create a low-tariff quota for European cheese and abolish levies over 15 years, while the EU will remove auto tariffs over seven years. The EU, the world’s largest cheese exporter, predicts the deal would result in an additional 10 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in exports of processed food, including meat and dairy products, to Japan.

U.S., Mexico finalize sugar trade suspension deal... After a long process with many false starts, the U.S. and Mexico on Monday finally signed amendments to a sugar deal brokered between the two countries, the Commerce Department announced. The amendments update the ratio of quantities of refined and other sugar that Mexico can export to the U.S. and the polarity content of the two types of sugar. Get more details .

Brazil, U.S. ag officials to hold beef trade talks July 13... The officials will meet in Washington July 13 for talks on how to resume beef exports to the United States. Brazil Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi and USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue will meet in Washington by the end of July to further discuss lifting the suspension USDA slapped on Brazilian beef imports in June, Luis Rangel, the ministry’s secretary of Animal and Plant Health and Inspections, told Bloomberg BNA. “I believe that these bilateral meetings, along with ministerial changes in slaughterhouse meat cutting procedures and also in the ministry’s command and control over meat plant operations will improve product quality and allow Brazil to resume exporting fresh beef to the U.S. as soon as possible, perhaps within 45 days,” Rangel said. The U.S. on June 16 suspended all imports of fresh beef from Brazil because of “recurring concerns about the safety of the products.”

Cash market may stabilize this week... Cattle futures faced pressure much of the day Monday, but the market pared losses at the close as traders recognize futures are at a discount to last week’s cash cattle trade that took place at an average price of $118.64, according to USDA. Showlist estimates are down a net 18,000 head this week, mainly due to a decline in Nebraska, which could help cash prices to stabilize this week. So far, there have just been some light sales in Iowa around $118.

Pork demand strength in focus as traders return.. Traders will keep an eye on the product market this week for signs of post-holiday features. If pork demand is weak, it would likely temper packer demand, despite still profitable cutting margins.

Overnight demand news... Algeria bought around 420,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, likely from France and Argentina. The United Nations recently purchased around 40,000 MT of wheat from Ukraine for east Africa. Iraq likely made no purchase in its tender for at least 50,000 MT of of hard wheat. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of soft and/or milling wheat from global suppliers.

Today’s reports:

2:00 p.m., Cotton System -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Fats & Oils -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Grain Crushings -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

Wild thing, you make my heart sing. You make everything groovy.

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:17 GMT

In case you missed it you can now share the -8-25-20 evening of absurdity with nationally-syndicated cartoonists Leigh Rubin, creator of the comic strip “Rubes,” and Wisconsin State Journal editorial cartoonist Phil Hands. This odd couple riffed off each other’s cartoons, demonstrated how the twisted minds of two different cartoonists work. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from a professional smart-aleck or full-time doodler, now’s your chance!

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/DMKXBYXOkHQ