Fuel

Paying $1,500 a Day in Fuel for Two Tractors, Farmer Calls Input Costs Worst Since 1980s

Mon, 18 May 2026 19:35:26 GMT

Farmer sentiment heading into the midterm elections is being shaped by rising input costs, trade uncertainty and growing concerns about the future of rural communities, according to a new poll of Farm Journal readers .

More than half of the farmers surveyed say federal policies have negatively impacted their operations over the past year. And as input prices, including diesel and fertilizer, continue to climb, one Ohio farmer says these expenses, and the strain they’re shaving on his farm, haven’t been this bad since the 1980s.

Input Costs Continue to Climb

In the recent poll of nearly 1,000 farmers and ranchers, input costs ranked as the top concern among the farmers surveyed, with fertilizer, fuel and machinery expenses all contributing to tighter margins.

Fred Yoder of Plain City, Ohio, says when you break it down between the three, fuel costs are particularly burdensome this season.

“They’re all important this year, but unfortunately right now fuel is really costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors,” Yoder says. “That’s a lot.”

(Farm Journal)

He says while diesel prices are causing the biggest concern today, fertilizer prices have also risen dramatically over the course of his farming career.

“I’ve spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it’s $670 to $700 a ton,” Yoder says. “The same potash, but it’s just a different time.”

Machinery repair costs have become another challenge, he says, because many replacement parts are imported and subject to tariffs and duties.

“A lot of those machinery repair items are made overseas and so they’re subject to tariffs and duties,” Yoder says. “It’s really kind of a perfect storm. You combine all that with inflation. We can blame the administration, we can blame the world economy, we can blame a lot of things, but they are all coming together at once.”

Yoder calls the current environment the toughest he has seen in decades, as the perfect storm of rising input prices are hammering farm operations across the country.

“It’s just ridiculous,” he says. “I’ve never seen anything this bad since the 1980s.”

Young Farmers Feeling the Pressure

Yoder says conditions have worsened over the past year, especially after many farmers delayed fertilizer purchases in hopes prices would decline.

“Why we didn’t book our fertilizer last fall for this year is because we thought it was going to go down,” Yoder says. “Instead we sat around and we booked it for a much higher price this spring.”

He says younger farmers are under increasing financial stress as margins tighten.

“I see a lot of our young farmers that are just struggling,” Yoder says. “We’ve had more dispersal sales planned for this coming year than I’ve seen since the 1980s. And that’s really unfortunate because that’s our future and we have to make sure that they have a way to survive.”

Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Farmers

While input costs are also a concern this year for Kristin Duncanson of Mapleton, Minn., she says uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policy are both weighing heavily on producers and contributing to broader economic concerns across rural America.

(Farm Journal)

“It would be easy for me to say that it’s just trade and tariffs and the lack of knowing exactly what’s going to happen when, but that kind of leads into the overall economy,” Duncanson says. “The price of our inputs is high. And I also have huge concerns about the slowing of the ag economy on rural communities. The implications are pretty great. And I’ve not in my 40 years, granted it’s only 40, seen a situation like this.”

Fewer Ag Voices in Washington

The Farm Journal poll also found nearly 74% of producers believe elected officials do not fully understand the realities farmers are facing.

Duncanson says agriculture still has advocates in Washington, but fewer lawmakers have direct ties to farming communities.

“Fred and I both spend a fair amount of time working with elected officials, and there are just fewer champions for us,” Duncanson says. “The members don’t have that much of an ag base anymore. And if they do, they are very caught in a real dilemma between the economy and doing things for the greater economy and really focusing on ag.”

(Farm Journal)

She says agriculture is still being heard, but by a smaller group of policymakers.

“I’m not going to say we aren’t listened to,” Duncanson says. “There’s just fewer people that listen to us.”

Yoder agrees and says the shrinking farm population has also changed public perception of agriculture.

“In my own community, we have so much lesser number of farmers,” Yoder says. “People are asking me, ‘Well, you got your planting done?’ or ‘Groceries are high, so you must be making lots of money.’ But unfortunately, it’s not true.”

He says consumers often do not realize how little producers receive compared to retail food prices.

“You take even beef, the amount you pay in the store compared to what the actual producer gets could be half,” Yoder says. “Everybody adds their cost to it.”

Yoder says farmers no longer receive the same level of understanding and support they once did.

“We’re fewer in numbers,” he says. “We’re still very efficient. But we just don’t have the perception that agriculture or farmers are hurting.”

Healthcare and Tariffs Could Shape Votes

About one in four farmers surveyed say they are open to changing how they vote in the midterms depending on the issues at stake.

Duncanson says healthcare access remains one of the biggest concerns for rural communities.

“I think a big one for us is healthcare, not just the cost, but the accessibility,” Duncanson says. “We’ve seen several rural hospitals and clinics in our area close. It’s tough to attract folks or keep folks out here when there’s not a good healthcare system.”

She says the issue ties directly back to the broader rural economy.

“Those services have closed because of healthcare costs and reimbursement rates, as well as just people not being out here or our ability to attract doctors,” she says.

(Farm Journal)

Duncanson also says renewable fuels and trade policy remain important issues for farmers heading into the election season.

“Just where people are on moving and getting creative of other things we can do with ag products and where we can sell them are also important,” she says. “Trade is a big thing still. NAFTA is up for renewal soon. We’ll all watch those things.”

Yoder says tariffs continue to dominate conversations among Ohio farmers.

“The majority has got a very, very hard line against tariffs,” Yoder says. “We hate tariffs. We want markets, and we want market-oriented programs.”

He says farmers also need policies that encourage innovation and reduce risk.

“There’s a real reason why farmers are raising mainly corn and soybeans because there’s the least risk in there,” Yoder says. “We’ve got to come up with ways that farmers cannot have such a risky time but maybe find a new alternative, a new corn, a new soybean or something to replace some of these things and maybe some of the input costs that we’re having now.”

What else did the new poll reveal? You can read the full results here.

Financial Strain & D.C. Disconnect: Shaping the Rural Vote

Sat, 16 May 2026 10:33:00 GMT

Frustrations over the skyrocketing costs of doing business, trade policies and lack of E15 expansion have put producers’ votes – many in competitive political battleground states – in play, according to an exclusive poll of Farm Journal readers.

The poll, which surveyed producers through April and was commissioned by the agriculture-focused public affairs firm Amato Advisors, shows the following:

Four in 10 producers are currently undecided or considering voting for a different party.
Half of those surveyed report fair to poor finances. Twenty-five percent fear they will restructure or leave farming or ranching entirely.
Rising input costs are listed as the top challenge; of those listing tariffs at the top, almost 90% have a negative view.
Year-round E15 approval is a decisive voting factor for nearly half of all producers.
The biggest frustrations that can move voters vary by state. In Iowa, it’s E15 and trade, but in Wisconsin, it’s healthcare and input costs.

Researchers, lobbyists and analysts who reviewed the poll for Farm Journal stress this is not a realignment toward Democrats. Rural America remains Republicans’ home turf.

Instead, producers increasingly think neither party knows nor cares to understand them, let alone solve their problems, according to the findings. If a candidate from either party can prove they are serious about farm-country issues that could be enough to win votes and change the course of up-for-grabs midterm elections.

“The frustration is not simply with ‘government,’” says Nicholas Jacobs with the Bram Public Policy Lab at Colby College , who reviewed the poll’s findings. “It is with a government that is too removed from the consequences it creates and poorly aligned with the realities of rural economies. When people feel squeezed while also believing elected officials do not understand their lives, that creates real political vulnerability heading into a midterm election.”

Amato Advisors ’ founder Mike Amato , who served in senior positions in the Biden-Harris and Obama-Biden administrations, says the findings apply to both parties.

“[The results show] a strong signal of disconnect between what is happening on the land and what is happening in D.C.,” Amato explains.

This Farmer & Rancher Policy Sentiment Survey polled farmers and ranchers from April 2 to April 24. A total of 974 producers from 44 states responded. About one-third live in “swing districts” with competitive elections in November, including areas in Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan and Ohio. Amato Advisors details more of the data here .

The findings come at a crucial moment for agriculture and the political direction of the country.

Year-round E15 stands front and center. Producers and retailers consider E15 expansion as the single fastest way to generate real, immediate demand for corn and reduce reliance on government support. Resentment reached a boiling point when legislators continued to delay a vote .

On Wednesday, Congress passed a bill by 15 votes that would allow nationwide year‑round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol. It now faces a tough battle for passage in the U.S. Senate .

In the meantime, Republicans have been losing what were comfortably safe districts, including some with agricultural voters. For example, Democrats flipped two Iowa state Senate seats in 2025 special elections (Iowa’s 1st and 35th Senate districts).

Anecdotally, producers have shared their frustrations over policies during the second Trump administration. But this Farm Journal-Amato Advisors survey is among the first to try and measure whether any of those changes will result in changes at the ballot box.

Status Quo or Shakeup? What Moves the Rural Voter

According to the poll, 61% of producers say they plan to vote for the same party as usual. However, nearly 1 in 5 say they aren’t sure yet, and 17% are actively considering either a different party or an independent/third-party candidate.

“That leaves a lot of rural America potentially up for grabs,” says Jessica Schulken , a lobbyist with the Russell Group based in Washington, D.C., who viewed the results of the poll.

Jacobs looks at it as roughly 40% of respondents express either uncertainty, openness to independents or willingness to consider another option.

“That does not mean Democrats are suddenly competitive everywhere,” he says. “It does mean this block of rural voters – who tend to be even more conservative than their neighbors – are feeling downright frustrated with the status quo.”

Noting that machinery costs, input prices, trade policy and tariffs are pinching margins for producers, Callie Eideberg , a principal with Washington lobbyist the Vogel Group , says these issues are also policy choices made by the administration.

“The administration was not forced to take action on trade and input costs, and these policy choices can be reversed or muted at any time,” she says. “If you assume respondents understand the president chose to implement policies increasing machinery costs and dismantling trade agreements, then their reporting that 61% will still vote for the same party in November implies they are also choosing to keep those policies in place.”

Rural ag voters don’t hold much confidence in the current slate of elected officials to grasp their situation. Nearly three-quarters say office holders don’t understand the realities farmers face.

So how does that translate to the rural vote?

23% say nothing would change their vote. “Until Democrats stop showing up in an election year in rural areas and then disappearing again, nothing will change my Republican vote. Words don’t help, action does.” — says a Congressional respondent
26% say candidate quality is the primary determinant. “ … I am open to voting for a solid candidate, regardless of party, which brings a strong knowledge and positive position to the table for the rural landscape and production agriculture in particular.” — says a Congressional respondent
51% name specific conditions or issues that could move them. “High input costs, tariffs causing market volatility, loss of health insurance, frustration with SNAP changes, high interest rates, high fuel prices and global conflicts coinciding with planting and harvest.” — says a Congressional respondent

“Partisanship in rural America has become increasingly layered on top of older frustrations that predate any single administration or price fluctuation,” Jacobs says. “For many rural voters, dissatisfaction with economic conditions does not automatically translate into openness to Democrats because the Democratic brand itself remains deeply unpopular.”

He says it would be similar to asking why urbanites didn’t revolt against Democrats when housing prices shot up or when schools keep failing.

The Split: Row Crop Strain vs. Livestock Optimism

When farmers were asked to describe the overall financial condition of their farming operation over the past 12 months, about half say they’re in good to excellent shape. More than 1 in 10 consider their economic condition poor or very poor.

“The farm economy at 50/50 shows the split between livestock profitability versus row crops,” adds Tyson Redpath , chairman of advocacy and business strategy for the Russell Group.

Eideberg looks at it another way.

“Just 43% of respondents reported their farm’s financial condition was ‘good’ and 38% reported ‘fair’ financial conditions,” she says. “This stands in opposition to the repeated proclamations from this administration that the ag economy is turning around.”

Rising Input Costs and Trade Policy: Farmers Rank Top Challenges

In the poll, participants were asked to identify the three biggest challenges currently facing their operation. Machinery and input costs top the list at more than 78%. Another 44.3% say it’s commodity price volatility, and another quarter say either weather or trade policy and tariffs.

When it comes to farmers who would consider changing their vote, one congressional respondent says: “I’m fed up with the U.S. financing other countries when our farmers are going bankrupt. Our politicians need to do their job on a bipartisan level!!!”

Of those citing tariffs and trade, nearly 88% say the policy is either somewhat or very negative, and 65.5% say tariffs will hurt long term.

When asked to describe the overall effect of federal government policies on their farming operation over the past year, 54.6% of nationwide respondents describe the effect as moderately or significantly negative. Just under 1 in 5 describe the effect as positive to any degree.

Why Input Costs and Trade Lead Farmer Concerns

As producers look past this vote and to the next presidential election, respondents ranked nine policy areas in order of priority for the current administration. Regardless of whether respondents are in targeted swing districts or the broader nationwide sample, input costs rank first by a wide margin, followed by trade policy and export markets. Conservation programs come in at the bottom of the priority list.

“If you look at the top issues identified by producers, input costs and trade policy, there’s not a whole lot that can be done about either one of those that will directly impact the farmers’ bottom line before the elections,” Redpath says.

Based on his analysis of the survey results, Jacobs says farmers and ranchers are searching for stable rules and better prices.

“I think both parties should pay attention to the fact that these concerns are overwhelmingly operational rather than ideological,” Jacobs says. “Rural voters are not saying the government should disappear, but rather that it needs to get its act together.

Year-Round E15 and Competition: Critical Factors for Rural Voters

The tariff and trade debate is all about finding and developing new markets for U.S. ag goods as global competitors erode a once dominant position. There’s been no bigger “new market” debate than year-round E15.

When asked how important year-round E15 approval was as a voting issue, 45.5% of nationwide respondents say it is very or extremely important — making it a direct candidate selection factor for nearly half the sample. Another 28.2% say it is somewhat important.

The poll results show E15 is one of the few issues in the survey where support for a specific policy is explicitly tied to electoral behavior rather than just expressed as a preference. Voters in key swing states and districts rate E15 as a voting issue at a slightly higher clip, which appears to reflect the higher concentration of corn and ethanol-producing states in the sample.

While trade and export markets continue to rank high, respondents are also focusing on competition abroad. More than 85% say they are very or somewhat concerned about global agriculture competition from producers in Brazil, Argentina and the European Union. The poll shows this is one of the highest rates of agreement on any issue in the survey.

How Ag Priorities Vary Across the Rural Vote

According to this poll, not all swing states are focusing on the same issues. For example:

Iowa. The most swing-available state in the sample with the highest E15 mobilization.
Wisconsin. The most financially distressed state — and the only one where Democrats are genuinely competitive on healthcare.
Nebraska. The most economically conservative electorate — but with the highest E15 intensity and notable tax concerns.
Ohio. A distinct issue mix – commodity prices and weather dominate, not input costs or tariffs.
Michigan. The highest vote motivation and switch potential in the survey — Democrats lead on farm labor.

“People do not experience politics as detached issue-by-issue calculators,” Jacobs says. “That does not make economic concerns irrelevant – and they are clearly not in this poll – but it does mean that dissatisfaction alone is often insufficient to fully reorder political loyalties.”

As Nov. 3 approaches, Amato describes midterm elections as an accountability checkpoint – a referendum on whether political actions match campaign words.

“Polls like this, combined with additional advocacy and farmers using their voices to talk to elected officials, can help close the gap so federal policy actually meets farmers where they are,” he says. “I hope this poll sends a signal to everyone who’s in elected office, or who wants to be an elected official, to take into consideration the challenges producers are facing today.”

How McCarty Family Farms Hedges Fuel Costs to Protect Dairy Margins

Fri, 08 May 2026 13:17:13 GMT

The great rebalancing of 2026 has taught dairy producers a vital lesson: You cannot control the wind, but you can certainly adjust your sails. While much of the industry’s focus remains on milk checks and component values, a silent predator often lurks in the shadows of the balance sheet — the fuel pump.

For an operation like McCarty Family Farms in Rexford, Kan., the 2025 Milk Business Leader in Technology Award winner, which milks thousands of cows across multiple states, the scale of production is matched only by the scale of its energy requirements. With feed trucks, tractors and skid steers running 24/7, fuel is not just a line item; it is the lifeblood of the operation. And in an era of global energy volatility, leaving that lifeblood to the whims of the spot market is a risk Ken McCarty, co-owner and manager, is unwilling to take.

The Math of the Spike

To understand the McCarty strategy, one must first understand the stakes. On a modern, large dairy, the equipment never stops. The sheer volume of TMR moved and the constant management of manure requires a fleet that consumes thousands of gallons of diesel every week.

For large herds, like McCarty’s, a 50¢ spike in diesel can derail a quarterly budget. In reality, that half-dollar move isn’t just an inconvenience; it represents a massive shift in capital that could have been reinvested in herd health, technology or labor. By locking in fuel prices, McCarty isn’t just buying diesel; he is buying the psychological and financial stability required to manage a complex organization.

The 18-Month Horizon: A Layered Approach

The McCarty strategy is defined by its proactivity. While many producers wait for a good day at the local co-op, McCarty and his team are looking 12 to 18 months into the future. They don’t view fuel procurement as a single transaction but rather as a continuous process of layering.

The process begins with a deep dive into data. Working closely with their fuel seller, they evaluate historical usage patterns. They don’t just look at what they used last year; they account for upcoming changes, whether that’s an expansion in acreage, a shift in equipment efficiency or a change in the beef-on-dairy program that might increase hauling requirements.

Once the known demand is established, the layering begins. As forward months become available on the market, the McCarty team begins to book physical gallons. The goal is to reach approximately 90% coverage by the start of the budget year on Jan. 1.

Mitigation, Not Speculation

Perhaps the most important takeaway for other producers is the McCarty philosophy on winning. In a world of high-frequency trading and market gurus, it is easy to fall into the trap of trying to time the bottom of the market. Ken McCarty is quick to dispel that notion.

“We have never viewed this as a money-making strategy,” he says. “Instead, it is purely a risk mitigation strategy.”

For McCarty, the goal isn’t to hit the absolute lowest price of the year — a feat that is more about luck than skill. Instead, the benchmark is historical consistency. If the farm can land in the bottom third or bottom half of the 5- to 10-year historical average or even just maintain consistency year-over-year, the strategy is a success. This consistent-cost model allows the farm to set its milk margins with confidence, knowing that this large input on the farm is already settled.

The Hidden Exposures

Even with 90% of their consumed fuel locked in, McCarty acknowledges the limits of the hedge. The farm remains exposed to indirect fuel costs — the market effects on purchased goods and, perhaps most significantly, milk freight increases.

This distinction is crucial for producers to understand. Locking in the diesel for your own tractors doesn’t protect you from the fuel surcharges applied by the third-party haulers moving your milk or the trucks delivering your distillers grains. This reality reinforces why being aggressive on the fuel you can control is so important; it narrows the window of vulnerability on the variables you cannot control.

Beyond the Contract: Efficiency as a Hedge

While forward contracting provides financial protection, McCarty is also focused on the physical side of the equation: consuming less. Every gallon of diesel not burned is a gallon that doesn’t need to be hedged.

The farm is constantly searching for ways to reduce its energy footprint. This includes everything from optimizing feed routes to reduce idling time to investing in newer, more fuel-efficient equipment. In this view, energy efficiency is the ultimate long-term hedge. It is a permanent reduction in exposure that pays dividends regardless of what happens in the energy markets.

“We have lived through times like this in the past and have no desire to repeat it, so ultimately, if we can be in the bottom third or bottom half of the 5- to 10-year historical average, or at least consistent year-over-year, then we are satisfied,” McCarty shares. “Of course, we are constantly searching for ways to consume less fuel and energy in general as an additional method of reducing our exposure to energy markets.”

Lessons for the 500-Cow Producer

While the McCarty scale is vast, the principles are entirely scalable for a modern 500-cow operation. Whether you are milking 40,000 or 500, the great rebalancing of the market means that margins are found in the details.

Compeer Financial ag economist Megan Roberts concurs with McCarty and says hedging isn’t about hitting the top or the bottom of the market; it’s about avoiding the economic risk of doing nothing.

“Risk management strategies, including hedging, are less about predicting the market and more about carefully managing exposure, using consistent, incremental decisions to smooth volatility in a way that fits the needs of your dairy operation,” she says. “Every farm is different, but in today’s environment, having a clear plan in place and following it with discipline is a wise strategy.”

In the end, the McCarty’s approach to fuel is a reflection of its approach to dairy farming as a whole: disciplined, data-driven and focused on the long game. By taking the volatility of the energy market off the table, it allows McCarty’s to focus on what truly drives the farm’s success: the health of the cows and the quality of the milk.

In a year where milk prices are shifting and trade policies are in flux, the lesson from McCarty Family Farms is clear: Protect what you can, manage what you must and never leave your margin to chance.

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records Across Multiple States, And Relief May Not Come in 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 12:53:40 GMT

On Tuesday, President Trump stated that high gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” for the ongoing war with Iran, arguing they are necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He predicted prices will “come crashing down” once the war ends. But for farmers and ranchers, diesel prices have risen more than gas, putting a further strain on already high input costs for 2026.

Trump on Oil Prices:

I looked today, it's like at 102 and that's a very small price to pay pic.twitter.com/2V8LC93wFj
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026

To start the week, diesel prices went on another run with the national average diesel price is just 20 cents away from reaching a new all-time high. And across the country, a growing number of states aren’t waiting to get there. About six states are already seeing the national average price of diesel reach record highs.

From the Great Lakes to the West Coast, roughly a half dozen states have already smashed previous records, as a late-April dip in prices quickly faded and a fresh surge took hold.

“Diesel now averaging about $5.65 a gallon nationally. That is only about 20 cents away from a new all-time record high,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy . “So even though we had that short-lived break, we’re right back knocking on the door of records again.”

That “break” didn’t last long. De Haan says even though diesel prices saw a bit of a respite for April, with even prices starting to trend down in mid-April, those prices re-accelerated in the last week.

New records for diesel in:
Michigan, $6.01
Illinois, $6.01
Wisconsin $5.67
(Indiana 0.2c/gal away), $6.03
(Ohio ~19c/gal away), $5.93 https://t.co/DV0387vvMR
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 5, 2026

Now, the rally is showing up in state-by-state records, especially in the Midwest.

“Looking at it state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically,” he says. “Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record.”

And it’s not just a regional story. States in the West were some of the first to not just see the highest prices, but now also hit record levels.

“Out on the West Coast, Arizona set a record a couple of weeks ago, and Washington state is at an all-time record,” he adds. “So there are probably about a half dozen or so states that have set new all-time records, and again, the national average itself is just 20 cents away.”

Perhaps the most telling shift, though, is there’s no longer a low-price refuge.

“No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon,” De Haan says. “Texas was the last holdout, and it now is above $5 per gallon. So across the board, $5 diesel is now essentially the floor, and in some areas, that’s actually the cheaper end of the spectrum.”

At the high end, prices are reaching extremes with California’s average diesel price now surpassing $8 per gallon.

Global Tensions Cloud Relief Outlook

With prices continuing to climb, farmers are looking for relief. What would it take to reverse course? That answer remains tied to global uncertainty.

“Relief may be a little bit elusive,” De Haan admits. “It really just depends on the daily developments in the situation between the U.S. and Iran—whether the Strait is open or not, or whether we’re in phases of escalation.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“Nothing else matters to the oil market more than this waterway,” he emphasizes. “We’ve seen attacks that have pushed oil prices higher, which in turn pushes diesel wholesale prices up. You may get a little bit of day-to-day relief, but there really is no ‘coast is clear’ until there’s some sort of definitive resolution.”

And even then, he says a turnaround won’t happen overnight.

“If there is a definitive signal to the market, if the Strait reopens and both sides are aligned, prices could start falling within 48 hours,” De Haan explained. “But the rate of decline is likely to slow after that initial drop.”

Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Through 2026

Not only is the rate of decline projected to be slow, but De Haan says diesel prices aren’t likely to drop back to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

“Roughly half of the increase we’ve seen over the last couple of months could come down within the first few months of positive news,” he said. “But the other half could take many more months. We may not get back to pre-conflict diesel prices until late this year—or even into 2027.”

For agriculture, that prolonged stretch of elevated prices carries real consequences.

“When you look at what comes out of a barrel of oil, diesel only makes up about 25%,” De Haan explained. “Gasoline is a larger portion, so it’s been less impacted. Jet fuel, which is an even smaller share, has been hit the hardest. So it’s almost inverse to how much is produced.”

Why Diesel Is Climbing Faster Than Gasoline

If it feels like diesel prices are rising faster and hitting harder than gasoline, there’s a reason rooted in how a barrel of oil gets used.

“Diesel has seen more of the sticker shock compared to gasoline,” says De Haan. “And a lot of that comes down to what comes out of a barrel of oil.”

Not all fuels are created equally in supply. Gasoline makes up the largest share of a refined barrel, while diesel represents a smaller slice, making it more vulnerable when supply is disrupted.

“Gasoline is the top product flowing out of a barrel of oil, so it’s been the least impacted,” De Haan explains. “Diesel, on the other hand, only accounts for about 25% of a barrel, so it’s been more impacted when there are supply issues.”

That imbalance becomes even clearer when looking across the full spectrum of refined fuels.

“The most significant impact has actually been to jet fuel, which is only about 9% of a barrel,” he adds. “So if you look at it inversely—the smaller the share of the barrel, the bigger the impact we’re seeing right now.”

For agriculture, that dynamic matters more than most sectors.

Diesel isn’t optional on the farm. It’s essential. From planting to harvest, it powers tractors, trucks and the supply chain that moves commodities across the country.

“Diesel is the fuel that drives agriculture,” De Haan say. “And that’s why these price increases are so impactful, not just at the pump, but all the way through the economy.”

And while prices are already elevated, the full effect is still working its way downstream.

“Consumers really haven’t even seen the full onset of some of these higher prices yet,” he adds. “That’s going to continue to trickle through in the weeks ahead.”

Demand Holding...for Now

Even with these high prices, so far, demand hasn’t shown many signs of slowing.

“We have not seen much meaningful decrease in demand yet,” De Haan says. “We’ve seen very little, if any, diesel demand destruction so far, which tells you the economy is essentially preparing to pay these prices because it still needs the fuel.”

But there are warning signs ahead.

“If diesel nationally hits $6 a gallon, that’s likely when we start to see consumption slow,” he says. “For gasoline, that number is about $5 a gallon. We’re getting very close to those thresholds.”

Until then, the pressure continues to mount. And for farmers heading deeper into the growing season, that pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Diesel Prices Spike on Iran Conflict Just Ahead of Planting Season

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:56:37 GMT

Diesel prices spiked more than 60¢ combined on Monday and Tuesday.

It is a direct result of the supply cutoff through the Strait of Hormuz, says Alex Hodes, director of market strategy – energy with StoneX Financial Inc. Refined product movement is concentrated in the Strait, making this one of the biggest global disruptions for the oil market.

“A large amount of refined products, specifically diesel and jet fuel, transport through this Strait. That closure is causing panic in buyers of Middle Eastern diesel, one of which is Europe, which is kind of the primary maker of diesel prices globally. That’s dragging on NYMEX heating oil diesel prices as well,” Hodes says.

Nationwide Diesel Prices Up Sharply from 2025

After rising 10.8¢/gal. on Monday, the national average price of diesel rose another 8.1¢ Tuesday afternoon. It reached $3.929/gal. — a rise of almost 20¢ in two days, writes Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on X.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the national average diesel price on Tuesday was up 31¢/gal. from a year ago.

Meanwhile on Wednesday morning, NYMEX heating oil futures were up nearly 68¢ from Friday at $3.26/gal. Diesel prices are based on these futures.

When compared to a year ago, NYMEX heating oil prices were up over 90¢/gal. and have risen $1.21 since December 31.

(Barchart )

They Could Climb Higher

Hodes thinks there is more upside potential for diesel fuel prices.

“Yes, I think there’s still risks that are in the market and have not really come to fruition quite yet. So ultimately, with the Strait of Hormuz closure, the question will be how long will that last,” Hodes says.

Some relief may come following a Tuesday afternoon post from President Donald Trump. He ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade at a reasonable price. He added that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait.

While that will help lower the insurance costs to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait, the shipping industry sees this as only a partial solution to the historic crisis.

“One other factor is that several Middle Eastern refineries have been attacked, and that’s over 1 million barrels per day almost offline due to those attacks. So, additional Middle Eastern refineries could be at risk, and that’s another bullish factor there,” Hodes says.

Diesel Prices Rise More Than Other Energy Products

He adds diesel has risen disproportionately more than other energy products. This is partly due to tighter global inventories.

“But the biggest one is that there’s more diesel products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than gasoline or some of the lighter counterparts,” Hodes says.

And Asian refineries, particularly in Japan and China, have also announced they could reduce run rates at their refineries if the disruption lasts.

The Price Hike Comes at Crunch Time for Farmers

The higher prices come as diesel demand ramps up for planting.

“It is a tough time to lock in fuel costs specifically, you know, in the start of March now. So, it’s not a great time to be a consumer of fuel,” Hodes says.

Unfortunately, few farmers locked in diesel prices when they hit lows in December and early January. This was just before the polar vortex rallied prices.

It is another expense they can’t afford when farmers are moving into the 2026 growing season already facing slim-to-negative profit margins.

Could EPA Decision Signal The Beginning Of The End For DEF?

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 16:27:17 GMT

Mike Berdo has strong words to describe his ongoing experiences using machinery requiring DEF ( Diesel Exhaust Fluid ) on his southeast Iowa farm.

“It has been an absolute nightmare, at least for us. Mechanics make trip after trip to do little stuff that’s very expensive to fix,” said Berdo, who produces grain and beef cattle near Washington. “We had planting delays last spring … little stuff that came from it and just seemed like [an issue to deal with] day after day.”

The ongoing mechanical issues and costs are why Berdo said he is “all for” EPA rescinding the 2009 Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding. The Finding has enabled the agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act and, in recent years, and launch requirements such as the use of DEF systems in diesel-powered engines.

EPA Draws A Line In The Sand
On Tuesday, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin released a proposal to rescind the 2009 Finding.

If finalized, the proposal would remove all greenhouse gas standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and heavy-duty engines, EPA said in a follow-up press release .

The move would start with EPA’s first greenhouse gas standard set in 2010 for light-duty vehicles and those set in 2011 for medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles and engines.

EPA said the proposal is expected to “save Americans $54 billion in costs annually through the repeal of all greenhouse gas standards, including the Biden EPA’s electric vehicle mandate, under conservative economic forecasts.”

Zeldin made the announcement to rescind the Finding in Indiana, alongside Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and called it the largest deregulatory action in U.S. history.

What The Decision Could Mean To Farmers
Specific to U.S. farmers, the proposal could potentially result in DEF systems no longer being included on new tractors and other heavy equipment using diesel-powered engines, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, during a Farmer Forum discussion on Wednesday.

South Dakota farmer Ryan Wagner told Flory he has a wait-and-see perspective on how or whether the EPA proposal goes into effect. He anticipates that reversing the Finding will take considerable time and effort for EPA to implement.

“It took a long time with the interim engines and things to get into full DEF in the first place,” Wagner said. “I don’t know how long it would take to unwind all that and how quickly manufacturing will just take those systems right off, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens.”

To Wagner’s point, here’s a brief look back at some timing showing when DEF rolled out in agriculture and nonroad equipment and became mandatory . The regulations were phased in over several years based on the type of equipment and engine size:

2008: DEF became required for all new diesel engines with engine sizes over 750 horsepower.

2011: the regulations expanded to include equipment with engine sizes between 175-750 horsepower.

By 2015, all new nonroad diesel engines were required to be Tier 4 compliant and utilize DEF, regardless of equipment type or engine size.

As Wagner considers DEF, he noted its use in diesel engines has provided him with one benefit: “On the plus side, I do like that they don’t make the walls of my shop black. That’s been nice,” he said. “You can run them inside for a short time and not not feel like you’re breathing in a bunch of soot and making everything black.”

Expect Legal Challenges To EPA Decision
A number of environmental groups have already blasted the move by EPA, saying it spells the end of the road for U.S. action against climate change, according to an online article by Reuters .

Legal challenges from various environmental groups, states and lawyers are likely ahead.

That fact wasn’t lost on Flory and the Farmer Forum participants during the AgriTalk discussion on Wednesday.

“If this proposal is finalized, it’s going to start a lot of conversations … and the dominoes are going to start to fall, something that we need to keep track of, no doubt,” Flory said. You can hear the complete Farmer Forum discussion on AgriTalk here:

EPA will initiate a public comment period to solicit input. Further information on the public comment process and instructions for participation will be published in the Federal Register and on the EPA website .

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