Hog Prices-Markets

Pigs Can't Fly: U.S. High-End Livestock Breeders Lose Millions in China Tariff Fallout

Thu, 22 May 2025 13:33:21 GMT

Dr. Mike Lemmon’s pigs, each valued between $2,500 and $5,000, were supposed to be on a plane bound for Hangzhou, China, from St. Louis in April, where’d they spend the flight snoring, play fighting and snacking on oats and husked corn before taking up residence at Chinese hog farms.

Instead, many went to a local Indiana slaughterhouse for less than $200 each after the Chinese buyer canceled the order within a week of China implementing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in April.

China is one of the biggest importers of American breeding pigs and other livestock genetic material such as cattle semen. These lucrative niche export markets had been growing, but dried up since U.S. President Donald Trump started a trade war with Beijing.

U.S. farmers and exporters said the dispute has already cost them millions of dollars and jeopardized prized trade relationships that took years to develop.

Though Washington and Beijing agreed to pause tariffs last week, exporters said Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has caused their companies long-term damage and could encourage China and other major buyers to turn to foreign rivals like Denmark.

“We’ve got brand damage now. There’s not a week that goes by without clients asking what’s happening with the U.S.,” said Tony Clayton, owner of Clayton Agri-Marketing, a Missouri-based livestock exporting company.

(Clayton Agri-Marketing, Inc.)

“I don’t know how we can put this back together. This is long-term damage,” he said.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the administration was “working around the clock to secure billions of dollars in even more opportunities with our other trading partners.”

Some farmers raise pigs specifically for breeding, a niche business within the $37 billion U.S. hog industry. Farmers pay top dollar for these specialty pigs, which have favorable genetics to produce lots of healthy piglets that can eventually be processed into tasty, high-quality pork.

Lemmon, an Indiana veterinarian and farm owner, has been selling pigs worldwide for over 30 years. He said he spent more than a year working on the $2.4 million sale of the pedigreed pigs to China. He noted they were carefully bred for good health, litter size and high fat content that leads to richly marbled, tender meat when cooked.

“It’s devastating when it happens,” Lemmon said, referencing the sale he lost.

He said he plans to stay in the breeding business, and is working to rekindle the deal with his Chinese buyer during the tariff pause.

(Clayton Agri-Marketing, Inc.)

Roughly half of the world’s pigs live on Chinese farms. The country has purchased large quantities of breeding pigs from the U.S. since an outbreak of African swine fever, a virus with a near-total fatality rate, wiped out millions of the country’s hogs in 2018.

Shipping livestock is lucrative but time-consuming. Shippers must personally fly with the animals or hire an on-board attendant who can make the rounds to keep their pricey passengers well-hydrated and comfortable during a long flight. When not working, the attendants chat with the flight crew or sometimes lie in sleeping bags next to the animals in the chilly cargo bay, exporters and farmers said.

China has also been the biggest importer of semen from U.S. dairy cows, known for producing large amounts of protein-rich milk. But “Not one unit of semen is going to China right now,” Jay Weiker, president of the National Association of Animal Breeders, said, noting China had been importing one-quarter of all U.S. cattle semen, which they use to artificially inseminate their dairy cows.

The Chinese milk industry began importing large amounts of cattle semen to improve the genetics of domestic dairy cows after a deadly scandal over contaminated milk in 2008, Weiker said. At least six children in China died and nearly 300,000 fell ill after a Chinese manufacturer added melamine, a dangerous chemical, to milk powder to make the protein levels appear higher.

Brittany Scott, owner of SMART Reproduction Services, a sheep and goat genetics company, said several foreign customers had also pulled out of deals. This left many vials of semen sitting in her Arkansas facility, frozen in tanks of liquid nitrogen and waiting for buyers.“They are eager to do their jobs,” Scott said of her male goats and sheep. “They understand the assignment and they do really well.”

However, the work of selling their product has proven harder after Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, and China retaliated.

The lost sales have been “a punch in the gut,” Scott said.

(Reporting by Heather Schlitz. Editing by Emily Schmall and Tom Polansek; Editing by David Gregorio)

Your next read: Is Tariff Pause First Step to Restore Access to China for U.S. Pork and Beef?

Millennials and Protein Craze Boost Meat Sales to Record High

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:05:28 GMT

Despite the extreme inflationary pressure on income now, consumers continue to lean into their love for meat in 2024.

“2024 was the strongest year on record for meat, with growth for beef and chicken, pork, lamb had a really good year, bison, veal, you name it,” says Anne-Marie Roerink, owner of 210 Analytics, who conducted the 2024 Power of Meat study . “It was just an all-around fantastic year, and it really underscored that despite consumers having that pressure on income and being in the non-stop balancing act on what to spend their money on, meat won one big.”

How Did Meat Win?
When times are tough, people start to cook at home more often, Roerink says. A part of the dollar that came out of food service restaurants went into the retail grocery store space. She says part of the dollar might end up back at restaurants. But, that’s not a bad thing for the meat industry. The balance between retail and restaurants tends to be a good thing.

“For years, we worried about whether millennials were going to be meat and poultry consumers like the generations before them. The answer is a resounding yes,” Roerink says.

Millennials, especially the older half of this age group, are starting to come into their income potential.

“Many millennials now have children,” she adds. “And those children are starting to be the age where you think you go to the grocery store for the entire week, and about two days later, your pantry, fridge and freezer are empty.”

The retail meat industry sold 500 million more packages in 2024 than they did in 2023. Roerink says 62% of that 500 million-package growth was driven by millennials.

“That’s been a key finding for all of us,” she says. “Millennials do approach meat and poultry a little bit differently, so that’s going to mean more change in years to come.”

Another reason why the meat industry is doing so well is Americans’ massive focus on protein.

“If you walk around the store, from your mac and cheese to your Skippy peanut butter, protein call-outs are everywhere,” Roerink explains. “But at the same time, this is going hand in hand with some people saying, ‘I want fewer ingredients in the things that I buy. I want a more natural form of food.’ That combined focus on protein with more wholesome foods has really put meat and poultry back into driver’s seats as well.”

What Do Millennials Really Want?
Roerink says millennials are focused on convenience more than ever. This is largely attributed to their life stage – running around and balancing time between family and work like generations before them.

“They have more focus on sustainability and animal welfare,” she adds. “With their approach and values relative to meat and poultry, I think we’re going to see some different needs in terms of transparency. They truly do want to hear from the producers. They want to understand what kind of life the animal had, how you approach water management and everything else.”

She says it may sound crazy, but consumers do want to know how their food is produced. And if they don’t hear it from the producer, they may dream up their own descriptions, she points out.

“Often times when we think about our meat category, we use industry terms. We approach it from a scientific angle,” Roerink says. “This means nothing to consumers. They want to know more, but we need to speak in a language that makes sense to those consumers.”

Your Next Read: Consumer Meat Sales Are Higher Than Ever

10 Understated Things Economists Say Could Impact Agriculture in the New Year

Thu, 26 Dec 2024 16:29:47 GMT

This past year was definitely full of surprises, but there were also happenings in agriculture that economists warned about at the end of 2023.

The bleak outlook for commodity prices, along with elevated interest rates, created a downturn in the ag economy, which is something many economists warned would happen. It’s the speed of which margins crumbled that might have been the bigger surprise.

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists if the U.S. was either in a recession or on the brink of one. The majority of ag economists say U.S. agriculture is ending the year in a recession.

56% of ag economists responded by saying agriculture is currently in a recession, which is up from the 53% who responded that way in October.
81% of economists surveyed said the U.S ag economy is on the brink of a recession, which is a significant jump from the 56% of economists who responded that way in the October survey.

One occurrence that wasn’t on anyone’s radar in 2023: H5N1. What was first thought to be a mystery illness impacting dairy herds in Texas was later confirmed as Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu, the first time the disease was detected in mammals.

At the end of 2024, what are economists watching in 2025? In Farm Journal’s latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, we asked economists: “What’s the one factor impacting the ag economy that’s not being talked about or covered by the media enough right now?”

From trade to deregulation plus numerous unknowns in a new administration, economists have no shortage of issues they’re watching in the new year.

Here’s What Economists Are Saying:

“The media seems consumed with the negatives of a Trump administration/Republican trifecta. It’s certainly good to be aware of the challenges with any political transition, but more forward thinking on what is positive, would be helpful: the outlook for taxes, biofuels policy, trade deals with agriculture included, deregulation all seem to be potential positives we could be talking about more.”
“Prospective tariff war is being downplayed, despite published research measuring expected range of damage.”
“Farmer attitudes toward alternative land use: CRP, solar and other forms to help diversify incomes.”
“Policy uncertainty is high right now. Will tariffs be imposed and if so, what will be the reaction of other countries? Will the new Administration take regulatory actions that favor or hurt the biofuel industry? What will be the outcome of debates over tax and budgetary policy? Will economic assistance to the farm sector be approved during the lame duck session or in early 2025? What about a new farm bill? Many people are making assumptions about how these questions will be answered, but we don’t know.”
“Farm income varies greatly by region. While we often focus on the Midwest and the financial health of that region, it is also important to notice that regions in the southern U.S. are really struggling.” It is also important to watch what production adjustments producers make to cope with today’s tighter operating margins?
“Could federal budget cuts/austerity dramatically change/reduce the federal farm income safety net?”
“Cash rent prices staying constant during a downturn in crop prices.”
“Let’s be clear — the clean fuels tax credit goes to the fuel producer, not the farmer. It enables market access into the biofuels market for the farm economy, but the ability for the farm economy to capitalize upon it is hamstrung by credit levels that have incentivized large inflows of foreign feedstocks at the expense of literally homegrown feedstocks like SBO.”
“The Brazil real is depreciating, which eventually leads to more U.S. competition.”
“China, Europe, Mexico and others know what to expect out of Trump. They’ve seen it before. Everyone is discounting the possibility that Trump’s tariff threat could result in some pre-emptive trade agreements that benefit us here in the states. The U.S. is the biggest buyer of consumer goods in the world. They can’t afford to cut us off. Note that I said consumer goods, not commodities.”

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What Impact Will Tariffs Have on Ag Markets and the Broader Economy?

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 17:23:00 GMT

President-elect Trump has threatened to place 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10%a additional tariffs on China on day one of his second term.

What will this mean for the agricultural markets?

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports.

Mexico has already threatened retaliation, so another trade fight will be devastating for agricultural markets.

McCormick says during the trade war in 2017-18 prices for agricultural commodities, but especially soybeans, took a tumble due to retaliatory tariffs from China.

He says the agricultural markets have handled the threat well because of the flush of export demand for many ag products that the market is already seeing.

China has been front loading their purchases of U.S. soybeans and Mexico has been buying U.S. corn in anticipation of the tariffs starting after January 20.

Weekly exports on Friday were a marketing year high at 91.5 million bu. and China accounted for 40 million of that total.

Additionally on Friday morning private exporters reported flash soybean sales of 30.9 million bu. to unknown destinations and another 5.6 million bu. to unknown both for 2024-25.

Corn exports were at 41.8 million bu. for the week ending Nov. 21 and 16 million bu. went to Mexico.

Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump’s trade strategy, particularly his proposed tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, appears to be more of a negotiating tactic than a straightforward economic policy. Analysts interpret this approach as part of Trump’s broader strategy to leverage tariffs as tools for negotiation rather than strictly for trade regulation or economic improvement.

However, if a trade war were to happen McCormick says there could also be negative impacts for the broader economy as prices for all imported goods would rise for consumers.

Additionally, the U.S. imports a large amount of crude oil from Canada and so a 25% tariff could raise gas prices and the U.S. auto industry is reliant on imports of parts and autos from Mexico.

All this could drive inflation back up which is negative for consumers and businessses.

At a time when the FOMC is trying to cut interest rates a return of inflation could force the Fed to change course and maybe even raise interest rates.

Time is of the Essence for the Farm Bill, Vilsack Says

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 18:59:51 GMT

“Time is of the essence. We need a farm bill now,” U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said during a conversation with members of the American Farmland Trust.

He said that time is running short for Congress to come together to address the farm bill in a bipartisan way.

“Either we have a real bipartisan deal on a new farm bill, or, at a minimum, an extension of the existing farm bill,” Vilsack said.

A farm bill would at least add some certainty for farmers and their lenders, he pointed out. So far, Vilsack has been fairly general in saying just what exactly he would like to see in a farm bill, pointed out Gary Crawford, reporting for USDA.

“The farm bill needs to be one that is not leaving anyone behind, whether that be farmers concerned about losing their farms in tight times or working families struggling to get by,” Vilsack said.

Vilsack added that lawmakers need to get together in a bipartisan way to craft a realistic, practical farm bill.

“Frankly, the longer we wait, the harder it is to get this done,” Vilsack said.

Your Next Read: It is Time to Pass to Farm Bill Now, Pork Producers Say

USDA Allocates $300 Million to Diversify Export Markets for U.S. Agriculture

Tue, 21 May 2024 13:42:48 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on May 21 that USDA is allocating $300 million to 66 U.S. organizations, under the new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP), to build demand for American food and farm exports in high-potential markets around the globe.

RAPP was launched by Vilsack in October 2023, authorizing $1.2 billion in Commodity Credit Corporation funding to help U.S. exporters expand their customer base beyond traditional and established markets, focusing on regions such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South and Southeast Asia, where consumer demand and purchasing power are growing, USDA explained in a release.

“USDA and the entire Biden-Harris Administration are focused on creating more, new and better markets for U.S. producers and agribusinesses, and exports are a critical part of that effort,” Vilsack said. “By enabling U.S. exporters to expand their footprint in diverse and dynamic new markets, RAPP will help make them more competitive and resilient in an increasingly volatile global trading environment. We know the potential is out there, but it takes time and money to grow new markets. USDA is pleased to be able to provide the start-up capital to help tap into these opportunities, because if we are serious about reversing the decline of small and mid-sized farms, and building wealth that stays in rural communities, it’s crucial that we create and sustain diverse market opportunities abroad as well as at home.”

Gaining market share in diverse and dynamic markets will help U.S. exporters better weather global shocks and better compete in an increasingly volatile global marketplace, the RAPP website explained. RAPP will help recipient organizations carry out hundreds of projects encompassing a wide variety of products and markets in this initial round of funding, USDA noted. Some of the projects include:

• U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) will receive $21 million and plans to expand its export efforts to new markets in the ASEAN region and throughout Africa, as well as enhance its investment in the convenience store segment in South Korea, Central America and Colombia.

• The U.S. Dairy Export Council will receive $10 million and plans to expand its presence in Africa by utilizing RAPP funding to better understand and develop dairy import regulations and regulatory frameworks in many markets.

• The Cranberry Institute will receive $1 million and plans to conduct trade education seminars and other consumer-focused activities to target export opportunities in India, Brazil, Colombia and Southeast Asia.

• The Hazelnut Marketing Board will conduct market research and trade missions to facilitate support market development in several African countries.

Other top funded organizations include the American Soybean Association ($28.5 million), Cotton Council International ($19 million), Food Export USA Northeast ($17.5 million), U.S. Grains Council ($17 million), Food Export Association of the Midwest USA ($15.5 million), U.S. Wheat Associates ($13 million), Wine Institute ($13 million), and Blue Diamond Growers/Almond Board of California ($10 million).

“USMEF is honored to participate in RAPP and we thank Secretary Vilsack and the staff at USDA for their vision and leadership in implementing this program,” USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said in a statement. “The additional investment in foreign market development is very timely and will be especially helpful in expanding demand for U.S. red meat in emerging export markets. USMEF also appreciates the role Congressional leaders played in the development of RAPP. We thank them for their support of this program and for prioritizing Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) funding in the new Farm Bill.”

To view the complete list of organizations that received RAPP funding, please visit the following link: FY 2024 RAPP Funding Allocations .

Do A Risk Assessment to Gauge Your Farm's Technical Debt

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:57:47 GMT

Could agriculture face a Southwest-type meltdown?

Southwest Airlines faced a perfect storm last December when it was forced to cancel more than 15,000 flights. The primary cause? An antiquated software scheduling system with origins in the 1990s.

“Southwest lost all visibility into where their planes and people were,” says Steve Cubbage, founder of Longitude 94. “Reports indicate some employees — not customers — were on hold for 17 hours to report their location. Even when the planes and people were physically in the same place, Southwest still couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty back together.”

Southwest has a huge amount of “technical debt,” Cubbage says, which is a gap between what the technology needs to be and what it is today.

“ Agriculture also carries technical debt ,” he says “When one takes off agriculture’s rose-colored glasses, the reality is much of the industry’s technology is being held together with digital duct tape and baling wire.”

For example, Cubbage says, the precision agriculture revolution is now more than 30 years in the rearview mirror. Many of those legacy systems are still used on farms today.

As farming and agriculture have evolved, farmers have become increasingly dependent on three networks they can’t control, says Brian Watkins, on Ohio farmer and founder of CropZilla, a farm software provider. The networks are:

Internet
Mobile communication
GPS

“If any of those went down, especially GPS, where would we be? We could figure out how to get things done, but there would be some real gnashing of teeth,” Watkins says.

While farmers don’t have to worry about a meltdown on the Southwest level, they do face technological risks, adds Terry Griffin, agricultural economist and precision agriculture specialist at Kansas State University.

“We’re going to be subject to those types of issues, whether it’s a faulty system or an intentional data breach by extremists,” he says. “Humans built these systems and humans can break these systems.”

INVEST WISELY

Do a risk assessment of your farm, Watkins suggests. What key parts have the potential for failure? Is your data backed up ? Then you can determine how to narrow any gaps.

“We have so many types of technology marketed to us as farmers,” he says. “You have to have a strategy for testing and adoption. People have different strategies, such as being on the bleeding edge or being a late adopter. Most of us try to be in the middle.”

Your goal is to be proactive, as a reactionary approach to adopting technology makes it impossible to deliver what the marketplace demands today, Cubbage says.

“Carbon markets and the digital transparency involved in tracking food through the supply chain are all at risk,” he says. “Southwest rested on its laurels. Will agriculture do the same, or will we roll up our sleeves and get to work?”

Sara Schafer uses her Missouri farm roots to cover crop management, business topics, farmland and more.

USDA Launches Effort to Strengthen Validity of Animal-Raising Claims

Wed, 14 Jun 2023 19:50:02 GMT

USDA announced on June 14 that it is implementing a multi-step effort aimed at strengthening the substantiation of animal-raising claims.

This action builds on the work USDA has already done to protect consumers from false and misleading labels and to implement President Biden’s Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American economy, USDA said in a release.

Animal-raising claims, such as “grass-fed” and “free-range,” are voluntary marketing claims that highlight certain aspects of how the source animals for meat and poultry products are raised, USDA explains. These claims must be approved by USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) before they can be included on the labels of meat and poultry products sold to consumers. FSIS updated its guideline on these claims in 2019.

“Consumers should be able to trust that the label claims they see on products bearing the USDA mark of inspection are truthful and accurate,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a release. “USDA is taking action today to ensure the integrity of animal-raising claims and level the playing field for producers who are truthfully using these claims, which we know consumers value and rely on to guide their meat and poultry purchasing decisions.”

FSIS has received several petitions, comments, and letters from a wide range of stakeholders asking the agency to reevaluate its oversight of animal-raising claims, specifically, how they are substantiated. In addition, the veracity of “negative” antibiotics claims (e.g., “raised without antibiotics” or “no antibiotics ever”) has come into question, the release said.

Responding to a request for a statement, NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane said, “Labeling claims provide value back to cattle producers across the country who go the extra mile to distinguish their product for consumers. NCBA supports efforts by the Agricultural Marketing Service to continue creating producer opportunities to add value and distinguish their products in a way that consumers can trust. We will also work with FSIS to ensure the agency is meeting its separate and distinct food safety mandate.”

In partnership with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS), FSIS will conduct a sampling project to assess antibiotic residues in cattle destined for the “raised without antibiotics” market. The results will help inform whether FSIS should require laboratory testing results be submitted for the “raised without antibiotics” claim or start a new verification sampling program.

FSIS will also issue a revised industry guideline to recommend that companies strengthen the documentation they submit to the agency to substantiate animal-raising claims. The agency plans to strongly encourage use of third-party certification to verify these claims, USDA said. These actions will be used to guide potential rulemaking on animal-raising claims.

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Crashing Dirt Bikes to Chasing Cows: Scott Irwin Releases New Book on Futures Market

Thu, 13 Apr 2023 17:43:36 GMT

Futures markets are a mystery, says Scott Irwin, author of the new book, Back to the Futures, is now available for pre-order and is scheduled to be released on April 19 on Amazon.

In Back to the Futures, agricultural economist Scott Irwin explains why it’s essential to understand futures markets, whether you’re talking about grain, cattle, or the largest market of them all—crude oil.

“Fortunes are made and lost in these markets, yet most people know little about how they work. These massive markets lie at the heart of our economy, affecting us all,” Irwin explained in a release .

His goal is to bring the world of futures trading to life, drawing readers in by sharing his “wild, life-threatening adventures with motorcycles, snowmobiles, race cars, farm equipment and renegade cows” while growing up on an Iowa farm.

Throughout the book, he explains how to reduce risk in today’s intense arena of commodity trading. This book includes perspectives from other experts such as Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group, and Leo Melamed, who revolutionized the market with electronic trading.

Irwin believes the book will bring clarity on why future markets are crucial for farmers and consumers, the critical role future markets play in the financial system and the role speculators play in making these markets work.

“No matter your experience or educational background, you can learn how the commodity futures market works. Not only is it possible, but it is necessary,” Irwin says. “However, there are many training tools and programs out there that complicate the process. This is why we wanted to write a book that can break down the markets for anyone. It doesn’t need to be a mystery, nor does the learning process need to be boring.”

Editor’s Note: Irwin holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He earned a bachelor’s degree in agricultural business from Iowa State University and both a master’s degree and a Ph.D. in agricultural economics from Purdue University. His research on commodity markets is widely cited by other academic researchers and is in high demand among farmers, market analysts, traders, and policymakers.