Livestock Markets

Buckle Up: Cattle Market Structure Signals the Highs May Still Be Ahead

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:51:06 GMT

For cattle producers wondering whether today’s price levels are sustainable, or whether the market has already peaked, the underlying fundamentals suggest the industry may not be finished yet. Despite historically high cattle and beef prices, the U.S. cow herd continues to contract, herd rebuilding has yet to meaningfully begin and beef demand remains resilient even as prices climb. And when you combine those forces together, it’s a recipe that indicates tight supplies are likely to persist well into the second half of the decade, setting the stage for continued strength, and potentially even higher highs yet this year.

That outlook was reinforced during a U.S. Farm Report roundtable markets discussion at this year’s CattleCon in Nashville, with Oklahoma State University Extension livestock economist Derrell Peel, Don Close, senior protein analyst for Terrain, and Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.

Close has been in the business for 48 years, and he says he’s waited his whole career for this, as the dynamics in the cattle market continue to build a strong case for cattle prices. And while there is definite risk at these price levels, and volatility is certain, both Peel and Close are bullish on cattle this year.

Inventory Report Confirms the Industry is Still Shrinking

The latest USDA Cattle Inventory report released last week showed another year-over-year decline in beef cows, underscoring just how tight supplies have become. While the number itself was not shocking, the market’s reaction reflected the realization that contraction is not over.

“The fact that [the beef herd] was down some was not a particular surprise,” Peel says. “I thought it also could have been up slightly, so plus or minus unchanged. It came in a little smaller than that. But in general, the report from my standpoint was pretty much what I expected.”

What matters most, according to Peel, is not a single percentage point, but the trend line producers are still on.

“The net effect is we continue to get smaller in this industry, and we are not growing at this point,” he adds.

For producers hoping tighter numbers would soon give way to expansion, the report instead confirmed the industry is still digging deeper into contraction.

Replacement Heifers Signal Intention, Not Expansion

One of the few increases in the report came in beef replacement heifers, but Close cautions producers should not confuse that with meaningful herd growth.

“I think it’s an encouraging indication that they’re starting to think about it,” Close says. “If you look at the offset to the decline in count numbers to an increase of 42,000, 44,000 heifers, there’s no real offset there. We’re still in the infancy of any expansion, and it can, depending on weather, go either way.”

From Close’s perspective, the increase reflects mindset more than action. After several years of drought and forced liquidation, producers are beginning to consider rebuilding, but that process is slow, cautious and far from uniform.

“I think the anecdotal evidence we’re seeing when talking with producers is [they’re] starting to see some very modest expansion,” he says. “And I would conclude with the number of ads we’re seeing online of bred heifers for sale, we’re just starting.”

That “just starting” phase suggests calf supplies will remain tight for several more years, even if expansion intentions continue to grow.

Very Solid Technical Uptrend in Cattle

From a market structure standpoint, Vaclavik says cattle and feeder cattle futures continue to reflect the supply realities producers are seeing today.

“The cattle market and the feeder cattle market are two of the strongest and most orderly bull markets that we’ve seen in a long, long time,” he says.

Vaclavik points to the long-term chart as evidence the rally is not speculative, but fundamentally driven.

“You basically go back, and it’s very easy to see. You go back to when the lows were posted in 2020, like right around the COVID timeframe, and what we built out of that,” he says. “I know there’s been some volatility, but big picture, it’s a very, very solid technical uptrend.”

While he acknowledges the potential for short-term disruptions, Vaclavik says the underlying fundamentals remain firmly in control.

“I just, I don’t see anything fundamentally to set this thing back,” he says. “I do worry about things like headline risk. You know, you worry about ‘Is Trump going to go on another crusade against beef prices?’ ‘Is there going to be a screwworm headline?’ There’s a lot of things that, over the near term, could result in a setback.”

However, he emphasizes recent inventory data does little to change the bigger picture.

“I just, I don’t see it as being material. It’s not enough to reverse the course,” Vaclavik says.

Market Structure Suggests the Highs May Not Be In Yet

When asked whether cattle prices have already peaked, Close was clear in his assessment.

“We’re not convinced we’ve seen the highs,” he says.

Looking at supply constraints and demand strength, he sees room for additional gains in fed cattle prices.

“We’re thinking we could see fed cattle prices this year up an additional 8% to as much as 10% over the average prices we saw in 2025,” Close says.

He points out the market correction tied to political headlines last fall ultimately strengthened the rally prices are currently experiencing, rather than ending it.

“When we went through that period in October, we had the headlines and the involvement from the administration, and that really gave us a scare, but it also gave a correction in the market,” he explains. “So, when we take the fundamentals we think we’ve been working with, and that was confirmed in that cattle inventory report last Friday, I think the structure of the market to continue the rally is absolutely in place.”

Even with the resounding bullish sentiment headlining the discussion, Vaclavik has a clear and pointed message for producers.

“I love all this optimism, but it scares me a little bit. Remember to keep your business a business. Don’t gamble,” he says.

Herd Rebuilding Timeline Keeps Slipping

One of the most critical implications for producers is how far the industry has delayed rebuilding the cow herd.

“We keep pushing off the timeline,” Peel says. “Every year that we could have started some heifer retention, we haven’t. So, I think we’re still pushing off that timeline.”

Even if producers begin retaining heifers in 2026, Peel says the biological clock means supply relief will not arrive quickly.

“If we start saving heifers in 2026, then that’s the start, but time it out. If you save a heifer calf in ’26, breed her in ’27, it’s 2028 or the end of the decade before we change beef production,” he says.

Peel also notes replacement heifers will first be used just to hold the line.

“The small increase we saw in replacement heifers may signal that we’re thinking about it a little bit,” he says. “But the other thing you have to keep in mind is that the beef cow herd has gotten smaller, and we’ve been culling less, so we need to replace some of those cows going forward. It’s going to take some of these additional heifers just to maintain the herd we’ve got.”

Delayed Culling Could Push Slaughter Higher

Close adds that years of holding onto older cows could create another wrinkle in the supply picture.

“If you take the number of cows that probably should have gone to town, but were kept back in 2024 to get one more calf, the same thing repeated in 2025,” he says. “I actually think we could see a modest increase in cow slaughter in 2026 just because of those cows that we kept an extra year or two longer than they probably should have stayed.”

That dynamic could further slow the pace of true herd expansion, even as producers begin thinking about rebuilding.

Another Bullish Factor: Beef Demand Continues to Hold Firm

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

Tighter supplies mean prices may need to rise further.

“We do have supply getting tighter, and it’s going to continue to get tighter, which probably means we’re going to use higher prices in the future to ration a tighter supply even compared to where we are now,” Peel says.

What it All Means for Cattle Producers

With herd rebuilding still largely on hold, cow numbers continuing to tighten and beef demand holding firm, their message to producers is consistent: the fundamentals that drove cattle prices to record levels are still in place. While volatility and headline risk remain, the supply-side realities suggest the market may not yet be finished rewarding cattle producers as the industry heads toward 2026.

Breaking: Mexican Border Closed Again as New World Screwworm Comes Within 370 Miles of the U.S.

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 02:18:05 GMT

On July 8, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety and Quality reported a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, Mexico, which is approximately 160 miles northward of the current sterile fly dispersal grid on the eastern side of the country and 370 miles south of the U.S./Mexico border.

This new northward detection comes approximately two months after northern detections were reported in Oaxaca and Veracruz, less than 700 miles away from the U.S. border, which triggered the closure of our ports to Mexican cattle, bison and horses on May 11, 2025 .

While USDA announced a risk-based phased port re-opening strategy for cattle, bison and equine from Mexico beginning as early as July 7, 2025 , this newly reported NWS case raises significant concern about the previously information shared by Mexican officials and severely compromises the outlined port reopening schedule of five ports from July 7 to Sept. 15. Therefore, in order to protect American livestock and the U.S. food supply, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately.

“The United States has promised to be vigilant — and after detecting this new NWS case, we are pausing the planned port reopening’s to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico. We must see additional progress combatting NWS in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border,” Rollins says. “Thanks to the aggressive monitoring by USDA staff in the U.S. and in Mexico, we have been able to take quick and decisive action to respond to the spread of this deadly pest.”

To ensure the protection of U.S. livestock herds, USDA is holding Mexico accountable by ensuring proactive measures are being taken to maintain a NWS free barrier. This is maintained with stringent animal movement controls, surveillance, trapping and following the proven science to push the NWS barrier south in phases as quickly as possible.

In June, Secretary Rollins launched a 5-point plan to combat NWS by protecting our border at all costs, increasing eradication efforts in Mexico, and increasing readiness. USDA also announced the groundbreaking of a sterile fly dispersal facility in South Texas. This facility will provide a critical contingency capability to disperse sterile flies should a NWS detection be made in the Southern U.S.

Simultaneously, USDA is moving forward with the design process to build a domestic sterile fly production facility to ensure it has the resources to push NWS back to the Darien Gap. USDA is working on these efforts in lockstep with border states – Arizona, New Mexico and Texas – as it will take a coordinated approach with federal, state and local partners to keep this pest at bay and out of the U.S.

USDA will continue to have personnel perform site visits throughout Mexico to ensure the Mexican government has adequate protocols and surveillance in place to combat this pest effectively and efficiently.

Click to enlarge.

(USDA)

Your Next Read: Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm

Buckle Up: Here's Why Cattle Prices Are Setting Up for Another Wild Ride in 2025

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 21:47:01 GMT

The cattle markets hit historic highs again to start 2025, and as USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory report showed U.S. beef cattle inventory fell to the lowest level in 64 years , tight supplies and strong demand could push cattle prices to even higher highs in 2025.

USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. total cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, with the number of beef cows also down 1%.

Those numbers, along with questions around just how much higher these markets can go, were major topics surrounding the 2025 CattleCon in San Antonio, Texas, (the annual cattle industry convention) this past week.

Signs of a Slowdown?
Economists and market analysts knew the cattle herd was still shrinking, even before the report was released last week. But economists say there are some signs starting to signal that is slowing down.

“We certainly got smaller in 2024. That was actually kind of obvious about a year ago when you looked at heifer numbers,” said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock specialist. “If you look at the heifer numbers in this report, we don’t have a lot. And so we’re going to be challenged going forward to stop this liquidation. I think we might stabilize numbers this year, but I think growth is pretty much a long shot at this point.”

“I think we’re getting close to the bottom, as Darrell referenced,” said Don Close, senior animal protein analyst for Terrain, during the U.S. Farm Report live taping at NCBA’s annual convention. “I think the challenge is retaining enough heifers out of the supply that we have to provide the fuel for the build back.”

Calf Crop Was a Big Surprise
Casey Mabry, with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, said there actually was a surprise in the latest cattle inventory report, and that wasn’t with heifer numbers.

“The biggest surprise to me was really looking at the total calf crop report, because we’re looking at the total cow inventory numbers. I think that probably caught some people off guard, having the calf crop a little bit bigger than what most people’s expectations were,” said Mabry.

Incentives Drive Outcome
With cash cattle hitting records to start 2025 a question on almost everyone’s mind is, can it continue? Mabry said it really depends on if demand can remain steady, since the supply side will remain tight.

“Incentives drive outcome and obviously with grain prices as cheap as they’ve been, and cattle prices as high as they’ve been, we’ve held on to some cattle. So it’s kept the front end of the market really, really tight and it’s kept packers chasing after cattle. So that ran the market $10 or $15 higher, in my opinion, than what we should have on the front end,” said Mabry. “So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch as we go through the back end of this thing. We’ve probably got to work through some stuff right here on the front end. But if the analysts continue to say we’re going to be tighter and demand stays pretty good, we’ll probably see prices exceed where we were before.”

“We’re Still Bullish”
Peel reminds producers there’s a great deal of risk in these markets. He said the markets don’t like uncertainty. With trade concerns and tariff threats, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, the combination is throwing uncertainty into the market.

“We’re very bullish and still bullish in general going forward for average prices,” said Peel. “But we also know that we’re subject to a lot of shocks right now. We’ve seen a couple already. We’re certainly vulnerable. There’s a lot of air below us since this market is so high. So producers really need to still do that risk management. Producers need to think about those marketing windows. If you got caught in a shock in one of those, it could really be devastating to you.”

Close has similar advice. He said with the development of insurance products, plus futures and options contracting, there are several ways for producers to manage risk today.

“At the price level we’re at, and just any measured retracement in the market, it could take you out of the game. At these price levels, it is absolutely imperative to have some kind of price risk management program in place,” said Close.

“I think you just need to run with what I call a keen sense of paranoia,” said Mabry. “I mean, be bullish, be excited about the market, but don’t get overly euphoric. We’ve got to remember back a short three or four years ago, we were all in the doldrums and very scared. And there’s a lot of people that were telling their kids to get into a different business. And now all of a sudden, we’re all jumping on the bandwagon of cattle and getting excited about this. So, we want to make sure that you guys are running your businesses like businesses and not gambling on cattle.”

Your Next Read:

Are More Record Cattle Prices Ahead in 2025?

USDA is Discontinuing A Major Cattle Report, And it Could Now Spur More Volatility For Cattle Prices

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 19:44:58 GMT

USDA announced this week it’s nixing a major cattle inventory report . The July Cattle Inventory report, which is only one of two inventory reports released each year, will be no more.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it’s also canceling all county estimates for crops and livestock starting this year. In the announcement, NASS blamed budget cuts from the most recent appropriations bills.

It now intends to only release one cattle inventory report annually in January.

“It’s going to be something to the livestock market and the grain markets are going to have to get used to,” says Chip Nellinger, co-owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing. “It obviously has implications as far as what the herd size and the different classes and weights across our cattle herd are. So that’s going to be a big unknown in the middle of the year.”

Nellinger says the other side is how the report could also impact the grain markets.

“What’s that mean to feed demand? How many head of cattle are on feed,” says Nellinger.

Related News: NASS Discontinues County Estimates For Crops And Livestock and July Cattle Report

At a time when tight cattle supplies generated record-high cattle prices already this year, the timing of no July Cattle Inventory report is also murky. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says it will have an impact on the cattle markets.

“It adds to the volatility, it definitely does,” says Suderman. “The frustration in the industry is when they look at some of the things that USDA is spending money on, that don’t seem to be part of the original mission of the agency, and then short change us on issues that really have an economic impact on the development and progress of the economy of this industry. That’s where the frustration is.”

Related News: U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low

NASS’ decision to cancel the report is garnering frustration from farm group, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). NCBA also thinks this could mean more volatility for the market and make it more difficult for producers to see into the future when it comes to supplies.

USDA tried to cut the July cattle inventory report in 20-16 and ended up reinstating it. NCBA calling on NASS to reverse its decision again.

Volatility Continues in Dairy Markets

Mon, 14 Dec 2020 22:02:10 GMT

Rangebound trade in both blocks and barrel cheese continues to start the week as the market looks for price direction in the CME cash dairy product trade. Blocks gained 1.25 cents to $1.63/lb on 9 trades. Barrels lost ¾ of a penny to $1.4350/lb. Butter fell 3.50 cents to $1.4450/lb. Grade A Nonfat Milk added 1 to $1.1375/lb. Dry Whey remains at $.4675/lb.

The volatility continues in class III futures. Futures once again sold off late in the session after showing initial strength. December gained 1 penny to $15.80. January decreased 3 to $16.19/cwt. February climbed 13 to $17.40/cwt. First half 2021 average resides at $17.07/cwt. Class IV futures settled +3 to -28 cents.

Grains were a mixed bag. December corn dived 5 cents lower to $4.1925/bushel. January soybeans ascended 9 cents to $11.6950/bushel. January soybeans launched a 9-cent gain to $11.6950/bushel. December soybean meal declined $3.30 to $380.80/ton. March Chicago Wheat was down 18 cents to $5.9650/bushel.

February hogs gained $2.45 to $65.67/cwt. December live cattle increased 35 cents higher to $109.10/cwt. January feeders gained 30 cents to $140.02/cwt. January crude oil inched above $47 to $47.01/barrel.

High U.S. Cheese Prices Could Pressure Milk Prices In 2020

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:04:23 GMT

Despite USDA reporting that October milk production rose 1.7%, milk prices continue to remain higher. Can $20 milk stick around?

“Right now, it’s on firm footing,” Brian Rice of Vault Ag told U.S. Farm Report host Tyne Morgan. “It can last through the end of the year, I don’t see any big breaks, but as we get into the January part of the calendar [that could change].”

U.S. cheese prices are much higher than the rest of the world, and Rice fears pricing resets and forward contracting resets in January will lead to trouble exporting U.S. cheese.

“High prices can cure high prices too, and cheese north of $2 when Europe is in the $1.60’s,” he said. “We can’t compete for the international markets at that level. So, if we start losing those exports, it’ll back up and then that’ll fix the high prices.”

With that in mind, Rice encourages producers to look for the highest contracts out there and secure that portion of the milk check.

“If I’m looking into 2020 second half of the year, Class IV is where we would look at the moment. Second half Class IV is at $18. It’s 50 cents over the first half and it’s 50 cents over Class III in that area,” he explained. “So that would be the portion of the milk check [to start with]. I would start with DRP floors on an $18 second half Class IV at $17.20. That’s above the historical average, so you got to start picking your points there.”

The Spring Flush and Then Better Dairy Prices

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 01:40:59 GMT

The dairy industry is hoping for improved prices in 2019 driven by less growth. As Mike North with Commodity Risk Management Group told AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths during an interview, optimism is at least possible this year.

“The reality is there is contraction that has been taking place and the numbers bear it out,” says North. “We saw a 94,000 cow decline from last January’s peak to present.”

North says while that made itself known in last month’s lower production numbers, cow efficiency is still growing.

“Cow efficiency grows as you cull the herd of the worst animals because the best animals then are allowed to express themselves more,” says North. "[It] generally shows up in more milk per cow and so that showed up again.”

North says we’re just now starting the spring flush.

“Milk is flowing through the country and it’s not to say that we are flooded with milk, like we were last year, because we’re not but there’s more present than there was as we came into the start of the year,” says North. “So, we’ve seen some of the premium on milk erode a little bit.”

He says cheese vats have been very active but the country is through the big consumption window and headed for summer.

“Cheese inventories are still very bulky and when we look specifically at Italian type cheeses there’s a growing sense that’s becoming a little bit burdensome,” says North. “So we can see some pressure on the block cheese price and [that may] drag that block barrel average lower through the month of May.”

North says that typically plays out in a lower milk price as we come through the spring.

“However, as we clear some of that inventory and move into what would be presumably summer heat, we see milk production recede a little bit, which is seasonal and normal, against that smaller cow herd, we could very well start to see a little bit of tightness,” says North. "[Right] when buyers are wanting to build up their inventories going into the big fall consumption period.”

North says if all those factors fall into place, it could really start to show up as better milk prices.

“We’re telling guys to be realistic about that and look back at history,” says North. “We generally trade milk between a $13 and $18 range and [so if] we start moving towards those prices they should be doing something about it.”