Meat

Global Protein Demand Surges 2% Annually as Producers Navigate Volatile Markets

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 19:28:00 GMT

While global protein demand is growing at roughly 2% annually, livestock producers must navigate a complex landscape of regional shifts, disease risks and policy battles that will define the next decade of production.

“The Global Protein Outlook: Demand, Trade and the Supply Picture” panel discussion during this year’s Top Producer Summit brought together experts from the beef, dairy and pork industries to explore demand, trade dynamics and risks facing the livestock industry today.

Beef, dairy and pork experts explain how foreign animal disease and climate extremes threaten herds and what risk-management strategies producers can use to stay profitable.

(Farm Journal)

On the panel were:

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky agricultural economist
Stephen Cain, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
Renee Strickland, Strickland Ranch & Exports, Inc.
Scott Hays, Missouri Pork Association

Five key takeaways from the discussion include:

1. Global protein demand is structurally strong, driven by population growth, rising incomes and a broad cultural focus on protein.

“Globally, we are seeing an increase in protein demand broadly across the board,” Cain summarizes.

He describes a few demand patterns:

Regions like sub-Saharan Africa and India: demand mainly from more mouths to feed, not big per-capita jumps.
Regions like Southeast Asia and China: both population and per-capita protein consumption have risen sharply.
Developed regions like the U.S. and Europe are in a fortified-protein trend: “We are cramming protein into everything,” Cain describes. “We have protein water on the market now … it’s across the world.”

Plant-based and alternative proteins seem to be a niche.

Burdine explains: “They’ve not taken any market share. It’s still kind of staying in that niche and not impacting the major protein categories.”

Cain adds the dairy alternatives are seeing category declines, with more consumers realizing milk is a whole food compared to the ingredient in an almond beverage.

2. Supply and trade are shifting toward more regionalized production and stronger competitors, but U.S. strengths in productivity and quality remain critical.

On the supply side, Cain explains rising demand does not always translate into equally increasing exports.

“We’ve seen that slow down,” he says. “More of that protein demand is being filled by domestic production, more regionalized players.”

He links this to some pushback against globalism and more inward-looking, domestic strategies. The U.S. remains a key exporter but faces growing regional competition.

Burdine adds while the U.S. has the smallest cow herd since 1961 , productivity gains mean more output per animal. He points out Brazil passed the U.S. as the largest beef producer.

“It’s not that there’s not competition out there, but we absolutely [have] a great advantage here in the states,” he says.

From pork’s perspective, Hays says the U.S. pork supply should stay steady into 2026, while global pork supply is shrinking. He predicts China may decrease 1.4 million sows, Spain is cutting numbers due to African Swine Fever, yet Brazil is continuing to grow its numbers.

3. Risk and resilience — disease, climate extremes and feed quality — are central concerns, making biosecurity, preparedness and careful storage essential.

Hays highlights herd health is the biggest concern for all livestock producers.

“What keeps every producer up is herd health,” he stresses.

He points out to these concerns today:

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS): PRRS causes “very, very significant losses” and takes a multiyear recovery
Foreign animal diseases – African Swine Fever, foot-and-mouth disease and New World screwworm .

“Foot and mouth should scare everybody at this conference,” he stresses. “We would lose all of those exports on all of those products, from dairy to beef to pork.”

From the cattle perspective, Strickland adds climate extremes are a concern for ranchers today.

“I also fear the climate change extremes that we’re all experiencing,” she says. “Extreme drought, extreme rains… that’s really challenging for me as a producer.”

More information about disease challenges facing the livestock producers today:

PRRS ‘Still Sucks’: New Strain Plagues Pork Producers in Ohio

Strategies to Help Raise PRRS-Positive Pigs

Is a World Without PRRS Possible? Two Veterinarians Say ‘Yes’

Help Protect the U.S. from African Swine Fever

African Swine Fever: What it means for America if it were to get into the country

What Do Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Europe Mean for the U.S.?

The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm

New World Screwworm: An Infestation, Not Infection

4. Consumer behavior shows both opportunity and caution: strong protein demand despite high prices, but some trade-down, weaker foodservice and ongoing debates over “ultra-processed” foods.

Burdine compares today’s protein enthusiasm to past diet waves like Atkins and South Beach, but emphasizes: “Consumer trends are always challenging, but it’s the most encouraging in my career.”

Two features about the demand craze he points out are:

How widespread it is across species and products, including eggs.
Price behavior — despite very high retail prices, demand remains strong.

Burdines explains this suggests a deeper, more durable shift for increased protein demand, not just a short-lived fad.

Cain adds in the protein world trade-down due to inflation and increasing costs is real, especially in foodservice.

He notes lower-income consumers pull back on fast food and quick service, which hurts cheese and dairy demand. Cheese consumption, which usually increases about 2% per year, fell 2% last year, which he says is largely due to weaker foodservice traffic.

Burdine adds that trade-down happens across and within species.

Hays emphasizes the new dietary guidelines are a big win for protein and specifically animal protein.

“We’re excited,” he says. “Pork is at the top on the left-hand side, but it’s more about shifting the conversation. We’re moving away from ‘animal fat makes you fat.’ Meat provides hard-to-replace vitamins and minerals, including in the fat portion.”

He did share concern about how ultra-processed concepts are being used.

“We’ve taken this word ‘ultra-processed’, and now it’s a household word. It is the single unit of measure [for] whether or not we should or should not eat something,” Hays says. “And we don’t even know what the definition of it is.”

He explains if ultra-processed is the only metric, a sausage patty and a honey bun look identical, which is misleading for real nutrition decisions.

Cain adds allowing whole milk in schools is a big win, but schools are facing a higher cost than skim and calorie caps that make menu-balancing harder.

5. Strategic actions for producers: robust risk management, efficiency and quality focus, diversification and a commitment to mentoring the next generation.

Cain encourages producers to use risk management and pricing strategies to help make them viable at today’s prices.

“If you’re not economically viable today, you’re not going to be economically viable tomorrow,” he says.

Burdine adds to think about risk management broadly considering price tools and protection from acts of God. This includes biosecurity strategies and insurance.

“Focus on efficiency and quality to stay competitive in good and bad markets,” he stresses.

Hays asks grain producers to protect feed quality. Poorly stored corn or DDGs (dry distillers grains) can create toxin issues that hurt animal performance and reduce demand.

“Your consumer really needs it to be high quality,” he stresses. “And we’ll buy more of it.”

Strickland encourages producers to diversify their income and not put all their eggs in one basket. Her business includes a ranch, export company and a non-ag title search company.

“When one of them is not doing so well, something else bails me out,” she summarizes. “If you’re in a position that you can diversify just a little bit, it can get you through the hard times.”

The final message was a question: Who are you mentoring and investing in? All producers need to consider how they are going to pass information on to the next generation and help them be successful and thrive.

Your Next Reads:
U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head
What Do Consumers Buy in the Meat Aisle When Money is Tight?
New Dietary Guidelines Move Food Pyramid Closer to the Farm

Buffalo Bills Beefing Up: QB Josh Allen's Hearty Gift to His Protectors

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 19:56:07 GMT

This Christmas, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen delivered a gift that’s sure to keep his offensive line well fueled: a generous supply of protein-packed beef.

While social media feeds overflow with holiday gift boasts, Allen’s substantial and thoughtful present for his protectors stands out.

Josh Allen and Hailee Steinfeld Gifted His Offensive Lineman a 'Quarter of a Cow' for the Holidays https://t.co/gF56mJ2Xyg
— People (@people) December 22, 2025

According to People magazine , Allen and his wife, Hailee Steinfeld, gifted his O-line a quarter of beef. Considering the Bills’ “everybody eats” mantra on offense, it seems like the perfect present as the team prepares for the playoffs.

@alyshamonet_ Alec’s Oline gift this year from our qb1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful! 🫶🏽#nfl #holidays #lovelanguage #healthandwellness #bills ♬ original sound - Alysha Monet S. Anderson

Alysha Monet, wife of Bills offensive tackle Alec Anderson, shared a TikTok video discussing the gift, captioned: “Alec’s Oline gift this year from our QB1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful!”

In the video, Monet picks up each item in the bag to show her followers the different cuts of meat Allen gifted them.

Showing four shopping bags, Anderson helps her narrate. “I feel like this is something we’ve always wanted to get for ourselves,” she says. “We actually had to go and buy a deep freezer from the store right now just to put all this meat in, but we’re so grateful to Hailee and Josh. They are the sweetest people ever and this is such a good, functional gift.”

Quarterbacks giving gifts to the players who protect them most is nothing new. In addition to the quarter of beef, Allen and Steinfeld gave each lineman a Schwank Infrared Grill.

Reports reveal Allen and other quarterbacks spare no expense for their linemen this time of year. Previous presents from Allen in the past include custom Bills scooters, Callaway golf clubs, along with private golf lessons and a Traeger smoker grill.

Cull Cows Defy Seasonality

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:04:31 GMT

All the talk of relaxing tariffs on imported beef, knowing that the majority of our beef imports are lean beef trimmings to go into ground beef competing with cull cow beef, suggested it might be time to take a quick look at the cull cow market.

Most will remember that cull cow prices tend to hit their seasonal lows in the rall. The most important reason for the price decline is that more cows are culled from the herd in the fall.

For beef cattle, the largest proportion of cows are culled in the fall following calf weaning. On the dairy side, cow culling increases from summertime lows. The increase in supplies of cows for sale results in lower prices. Another contributor to lower prices is the end of grilling season, with consumers shifting over to more fall and winter consumption patterns.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

So far this fall, the cull cow market has defied normal seasonality. Southern Plains cull cow auction prices hit about $165 per cwt. back in June and have remained there since then. A couple weeks of declines were followed by rebounds back to about $165 per cwt. National average cutter quality cows have declined recently, slipping about $9 per cwt. to $126.

(USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

While the live cow market has not declined much, the same cannot be said for the cow beef market. The boxed cow beef cutout climbed to $340 per cwt. but has declined to $317 over the last two months. Wholesale 90% lean beef has declined from $436 to $404 per cwt. over the same period. Both the boxed beef cutout and wholesale 90% lean have followed the normal season pattern, declining into the fall.

(USDA-AMS, USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center)

We are likely to see some increased culling from the dairy side of the beef industry in the coming months. USDA’s latest milk production report indicated the nation’s dairy cow herd at 9.85 million head. That is the largest herd since at least 1993.

Milk production in September was 4% larger than the year before. Milk prices are beginning to decline sharply with increased production. There is no doubt that the increased returns from using beef bull instead of dairy breed semen to produce beef-on-dairy calves is boosting profits and aiding in the dairy herd expansion.

Beef cow culling is likely to remain low due to the historically small cow herd and incentives to expand. More dairy cow culling and less beef cow culling will continue to leave cull cow prices high.

Your Next Read: Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 12:14:48 GMT

Lance Zimmerman is a senior beef industry analyst with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness and helped provide research and insights for Drover’s State of the Beef Industry report.

Cow liquidation is in the rearview. Heifer retention is underway. The U.S. cattle cycle is officially shifting into rebuild mode, but this recovery will not be a stampede. It’s shaping up as a slow, strategic climb.

Beef processing bottlenecks, persistent drought, soaring feed costs, labor shortages and post-pandemic friction kept cow-calf margins relatively tight from 2016 to 2022. Some of those pressures have eased, but with herd numbers set to grow, others could easily resurface. As producers hold back more heifer calves this fall, herd replenishment remains a cautious and calculated exercise.

Rabobank expects the Jan. 1, 2026, beef cow inventory to be 28 million head, up 200,000 head from the prior year. A second increase of less than 500,000 head is likely over the following year. In short, do not expect dramatic shifts early in this rebuilding effort. From 2024 to 2026, the nation’s beef cow herd will hold relatively steady (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: U.S. beef cow inventory on January 1

(USDA, Rabobank 2026-2030 forecast)

More meaningful herd growth is forecast from Jan. 1, 2027, into the early 2030s. But even then, the peak inventory projection is likely to be 500,000 to 1 million head below the 2019 highs, and that is not necessarily a bad thing.

Thanks to long-term efficiency gains across the U.S. beef sector, a rebuild topping 30.5 million cows might be more than enough to hit new record high in total production. Per capita beef supplies could reach levels not seen in more than two decades. Still, adding upward of 2.5 million cows during this next phase will be complicated.

According to the latest Farm Journal State of the Beef Industry survey , just 47% of producers are considering expanding their cow herd within the next five years, a four-point drop from last year’s already modest number.

Factors Affecting Herd Building

The hesitation is rooted in hard realities. Rising input costs, from fencing and equipment to replacement heifers, are straining budgets. And it is not just the higher price tags. Volatility is adding pressure. Fluctuating expenses are muddying financial planning, tightening cash flow, and making profit targets feel increasingly out of reach.

Access to pastureland is still a sore spot. Prices keep climbing, while land-use restrictions and expanding suburbs are blocking opportunities for cattle producers.

Federal government shifts are not helping morale either. Regulatory red tape and compliance demands already pull significant time and resources. Adding the moving target of trade policy and a maze of new rules, and producers find themselves burning hours to stay current. The burden is exhausting.

Behind much of the fatigue in cattle production lies a familiar challenge: aging producers and a shrinking labor pool. Finding help is tough and getting tougher.

Older ranchers worry about health, longevity and who will take the reins next. Meanwhile, the next generation faces a different battle: securing capital, gaining know-how and finding tenacity that defined those who came before. The grit is there — so are the obstacles.

Given these constraints, can the beef cow inventory forecast outlined earlier really take shape in the coming years? Improving drought conditions and profitability help. Survey responses suggest it will take even more than that.

USDA’s latest Census of Agriculture reveals a clear trend: big cow-calf operations are getting bigger. Since 2012, producers with 200 head or more added 2.2 million cows, a 20% jump. Meanwhile, operations less than 200 head lost 2 million, an 11% drop. The shift was established by 2017 and accelerated into 2022.

Rabobank sees the 2027 census amplifying the trend: big operations getting even bigger. They have the capital cushion to absorb risk and make bold moves without jeopardizing the ranch. That is critical when bred cow and heifer prices push past $4,000 per head in the next few years and calf prices soften as supply grows later in the cattle cycle.

Producer age matters even more in this rebuilding effort. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, beef cattle operators now average 58.3 years old, the oldest among all U.S. livestock and poultry producer groups.

Younger ranchers might be more willing to bet bigger during this rebuild. For many families, it’s a natural handoff, an exit lane for older operators to transition decision-making to the next generation. Also, herd expansion could unlock new revenue and pull sons and daughters back into the ranch.

Cow-calf producers stand apart in the beef supply chain as fixed-cost operators in a largely margin-driven sector, but that distinction is blurring.

As herd size grows larger and ranch leadership skews younger, margin thinking will gain ground. Larger producers focus on profit per cow or per acre. Younger ranchers lean into data and strategy.

With volatile market prices and uncertainty surrounding the cattle business, margin-minded cow-calf operators are not just likely to evolve during this cow herd rebuild. They are essential to the U.S. restocking effort.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

For more insights to the report as well as producer and economist perspectives, watch the State of the Beef Industry Webinar exclusive on FarmJournal.tv . The panel includes Ken Odde, a South Dakota cattle producer, along with Matt Perrier, Angus seedstock producer from Kansas, and Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch senior beef industry analyst. You won’t want to miss their thoughts on the beef industry today and in the future.

Your Next Read: Consumer Craze for Protein Drives Beef Demand

— Lance Zimmerman serves as RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness’ senior beef industry analyst. Discovering and implementing decision-friendly business solutions for agricultural and food companies has been the focus of his career. Growing up on a western Kansas farming operation that includes a commercial cow-calf herd has fueled his passion for the industry.

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 16:41:54 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Why Aren't High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 17:10:10 GMT

Gound beef prices across the U.S. continue to reach new highs. Retail prices for ground beef hit its highest level in history in June climbing above $6 per pound, while steaks were up 8% at $11.49 per pound.

(Bureau of Labor Statistics )

“The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist for livestock and food product marketing. “While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.”

Anderson explains reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up for seasonal beef demand. The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says: “What we have seen so far is consumers have been incredibly loyal to protein collectively, but they have been especially loyal to beef, and beef is actually continuing to gain market there, even at the current prices at the expense of the other protein.”

Wages Are Keeping Pace With Beef Prices

Close says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages he found they are in lock step.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” he explains. “So from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

(Don Close, Terrain )

Other contributing factors to beef demand include consumers’ craze for protein and the impact of GLP-1 diets on protein consumption.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says: “I think beef demand has just proven time and time again — hey, consumers want it. It’s a great healthy protein, and I think it’s got a lot of good traction here over the last year of being a good quality source of food.”

High Quality Attracts Consumer Spending

Plus, with 82% to 84% of the beef produced grading Choice or better, the high quality of beef is pushing demand.

“I don’t see any weakness really in the consumers or their spending habits,” says Mike Minor, professional ag marketing. “We actually are eating more Prime meat today than Choice for the first time ever. So, people like their expensive meat still.”

How Long Will High Cattle and Beef Prices Last?

Last week USDA reported average fed cash cattle prices hit the second-highest level in history at $237.78, up 57¢ from the average the prior week.

The high cattle and beef prices continue to be driven by tight cattle numbers, the Mexican boarder closing due to New World screwworm and looming import challenges.

Yet, Close says the role of strong demand can’t be ignored and is likely to continue.

“I think it’s certainly through 2026 and really more realistic somewhere deep into 2027,” he adds.

Anderson explains normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs. Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

“Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices,” Anderson says. “But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer. Wholesale beef prices are already declining.”

He adds there is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.

“But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year-ago levels,” Anderson emphasizes.

Inventory Reports Release on July 25

Close says more will be known about supply levels after the USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports on Friday.

“While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1,” Anderson summarizes. “The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention. Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.”

Your Next Read: What Americans Won’t Give Up in 2025: Spending Priorities Revealed

Economists Fear the U.S. Will See a Recession in 2025, And That Could Eat Into Consumers' Demand for Meat

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 17:56:25 GMT

Consumer meat sales hit record-breaking levels last year. The craze for protein-filled diets has been a storyline that’s helped drive meat demand, which is good news for meat producers. Ag economists warn, however, the major limiting factor for meat demand, and meat prices, in 2025 just may be what happens in the overall economy.

The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists if they think the U.S. general economy will see a recession in 2025, and 62% said yes.

Recent reports agree with that sentiment, as the Federal Reserve’s key inflation index rose more than expected in February and consumer spending posted a smaller-than-projected increase, according to the Commerce Department. Both could be warning signs of what’s ahead.

As a follow up question, The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey asked, “In what ways does the U.S. economy impact meat demand in 2025?” Respondents had no shortage of opinions on that.

Here’s a rundown of some of their reactions:

“If real wages fall, there will be a substitution toward other protein/cheaper meat cuts.”
“Slower growth (even if the U.S. does not endure a recession) will reduce consumer willingness to spend, especially at a time when beef prices, in particular, are high.”
“A downturn in economic growth impacts disposable income and should slow animal protein demand.”
“There is a positive correlation between GDP and meat demand, particularly between GDP and higher end cuts.”
“When the U.S. economy is strong and incomes increase, consumers have more disposable income to spend on meat and higher quality cuts of meat. When the U.S. economy is weak and disposable income tightens, consumers may reduce meat in their diet or turn to less expensive meat options.”

Not all economists expect U.S. consumer demand to fall off though, even if the U.S. officially enters into a recession.

“Labor income is growing faster than inflation. Most U.S. firms are profitable - at least as of current earnings reports,” said one economist.

Another shared, “I do think consumer demand will be lower in 2025 than it was in 2024. That being said - 2024 consumer expenditures and demand were a lot higher than I anticipated at the beginning of the year. Two indicators that are showing up, and are unsustainable right now, are reducing savings accounts and increasing credit card debt. I think it leads to slower meat demand in 2025, partially due to lower meat availability and partially due to slowing consumer demand. Notice I said ‘slowing’ consumer demand and not ‘declining/negative’. Demand does not have to decline year-over-year to impact meat prices. Slowing can do the same thing.”

The GLP-1 Effect
What could have an even bigger impact on meat demand, and even more so than inflation and a recession, is the use of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. GLP-1 drugs not only moderate users’ blood sugar levels, but also affect their appetites by suppressing hunger cravings.

“U.S. consumer preference for meat demand is strong, though I would be paying attention to the growing use of GLP-1s as it relates to all agricultural product demand,” one economist responded.

The good news is studies have shown those who use GLP-1 drugs often crave healthier items and often consume more protein versus unhealthy foods.

Starting From a Place of Strength
Forecasting meat demand in 2025 relies on a number of factors. But a positive trend is how consumers, especially the millennial generation, are buying more meat. As PorkBusiness.com reported this week, consumers are buying more meat than ever. In 2024, meat sales hit a record high of $104.6 billion and total pounds sold increased by 2.3%, which was cited in the latest Power of Meat.

More people want meat today, but economists are concerned any economic pain could eat into overall meat demand.

The Impact of Beef x Dairy Calves

Mon, 09 Sep 2024 16:14:37 GMT

The most common question I get at market outlook presentations is “What is the market impact of all these beef on dairy calves?” There seems to be a perception that these calves represent an additional number of cattle beyond the traditionally available cattle inventory data.

Historically the dairy industry bred all cows to dairy genetics, using the 50 percent heifer calf crop to ensure sufficient heifers from which to select the best genetics for the milking herd. The male calves and culled females became part of the beef industry. The growing production of beef x dairy crossbred calves in recent years is the result of increased commercial feasibility of sexed-semen technology. With sexed-semen, dairy producers can target the production of dairy replacement heifers in a subset of genetically superior cows. This frees up the remaining dairy cows to utilize beef genetics and produce crossbred calves.

Straightbred dairy steers and heifers are heavily discounted in beef markets because the light muscled animals produce carcasses with less desirable muscle conformation. Beef x dairy crossbred calves are significantly more valuable because the resulting carcasses have improved muscling and carcass conformation. Straightbred dairy calves not used for milk replacements previously entered the beef market simply as a residual, with limited or, sometimes no, value in the beef industry. In contrast, beef x dairy cross calves are a significant source of revenue for dairy producers and are subject to management choices regarding genetics and production. Numbers are uncertain but a significant percentage of potential non-replacement dairy calf production today are beef x dairy crosses.

USDA-NASS estimated the Jan. 1, 2024 inventory of dairy cows at 9.36 million head. The dairy herd is relatively stable and has only varied by 130 thousand head, or 1.4 percent, from maximum to minimum in the last ten years. The dairy industry contributes an average of roughly 26 percent of the total U.S. calf crop each year. The contribution of the dairy industry to beef production does not change significantly year to year although the relative share of dairy in beef production increases slightly when the beef industry declines cyclically. Growth in production of beef x dairy crossbred calves does not represent any net additional production of cattle but rather a change in the genetic composition of dairy calf production.

Dairy production, including beef x dairy calves, are included in the cattle inventory and production data that are routinely available. Calf crop, cattle on feed, and slaughter data and other data include beef and dairy sectors and therefore already account for the beef x dairy calves now being produced in the dairy sector. Beef x dairy calf production is not having much impact on total beef production and market prices beyond what is already considered in market analysis. There are some impacts in specific meat markets because the beef cuts from beef x dairy carcasses may have access to markets previously closed to dairy beef. Arguably, the biggest impact of beef x dairy production is the blurring of the historical demarcation between beef and dairy sectors in the U.S.

FSIS’ Final Results of H5N1 Testing Confirms Meat Supply is Safe

Thu, 30 May 2024 19:37:44 GMT

Final results of USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) beef muscle sampling of cull dairy cows condemned at select FSIS-inspected slaughter facilities confirm the meat supply is safe, the agency said Thursday.

On May 28, 2024, testing was completed on all 109 muscle samples that were collected. No viral particles were detected in 108 out of 109 muscle samples. As previously announced on May 24, viral particles were detected in tissue samples, including diaphragm muscle, from one cow. No meat from these dairy cattle entered the food supply.

USDA has a rigorous meat inspection process, which includes FSIS veterinarians who are present at all federal slaughter facilities. FSIS personnel inspect each animal before slaughter, and all cattle carcasses must pass a second inspection after slaughter and be determined to be fit to enter the human food supply.

FSIS said that while multiple safeguards are in place to protect consumers, the agency continues to recommend consumers properly handle raw meats and cook to a safe internal temperature. Cooking to a safe internal temperature kills bacteria and viruses in meat. Specific recommendations are available online at: Safe Minimum Internal Temperature Chart | Food Safety and Inspection Service

Food Box Idea Draws Criticism

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:49:14 GMT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration is pushing what it calls a “bold new approach to nutrition assistance": replacing the traditional cash-on-a-card that food stamp recipients currently get with a pre-assembled box of canned foods and other shelf-stable goods dubbed “America’s Harvest Box.”

Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney likened the box to a meal kit delivery service, and said the plan could save nearly $130 billion over 10 years. But the idea, tucked into President Donald Trump’s 2019 budget, has caused a firestorm, prompting scathing criticism from Democrats and nutrition experts who say its primary purpose is to punish the poor.

“The main goal is to alleviate food insecurity, and the reason SNAP is so successful is because it gives low-income families the autonomy and dignity to make their own food choices,” said Craig Gundersen, a professor in agricultural strategy at the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Gundersen said people will leave the program as a result of the shift.

SNAP — the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — is the official name for the food stamp programs.

“All of a sudden you’re saying, ‘we don’t trust you to make the right decisions for your family.’ It’s demeaning and it’s patronizing. This is pro-hunger, because people will leave the program,” Gunderson said.

Under the proposed plan, households that receive more than $90 in SNAP benefits each month — roughly 81 percent of households in the program, or about 16.4 million — would be affected.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue called the box “a bold, innovative approach to providing nutritious food to people who need assistance feeding themselves and their families.”

But the proposal doesn’t include any concrete details about how much the program would cost or how it would be implemented, saying only that states will be given flexibility to distribute the boxes “through existing infrastructure, partnership, and/or directly to residences through commercial and/or retail delivery services.”

Lawmakers say they aren’t even sure where the idea came from.

Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., the ranking member of the House nutrition subcommittee, called the proposal a “cruel joke” that came out of nowhere. He said despite having numerous hearings on SNAP, Monday’s budget was the first time he’d heard of the food box proposal.

“I don’t even know how to implement it. Who would distribute these boxes?” he said. “How would we do this? Do they anticipate recipients getting them at supermarkets? In addition to being a cruel and demeaning and awful idea, it’s just not practical.”

A spokeswoman for House agriculture committee Chairman Mike Conaway, R-Texas, said the committee has held 21 hearings and invited 80 experts to speak about SNAP in its preparations of the forthcoming farm bill, and the idea of a food box was not once discussed.

An Agriculture Department spokesman said the idea was developed internally, but didn’t provide further details on the brainstorming process. Mulvaney credited it to Perdue.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, top Democrat on the Senate agriculture committee, said the food box idea “isn’t a serious proposal and is clearly meant to be a distraction from this Administration’s proposed budget that fails our families and farmers.”

The proposal is part of a broader plan to gut the SNAP program, reducing it by roughly $213 billion — nearly 30 percent — over the next decade. The plan also proposes tightening work requirements for recipients.

Matt Knott, president of hunger relief network Feeding America, called it “an unworkable solution in search of a problem.”

“SNAP is an efficient program that already utilizes a grocery system,” Knott said. “It’s a program that expands and contracts as the economy expands and contracts as well. It’s flexible, timely and efficient, and converting a sufficient portion of it to an antiquated program where boxes are delivered is simply unworkable.”

Copyright 2018, The Associated Press

Cracks Ahoy!

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:25:37 GMT

ATTN: GRAPESTOMPING COW IN YOUTUBE VIDEO BELOW. (REALLY!)

Hi All! Thought you might enjoy the pilot episode of, Drawing Inspiration, a family friendly TV show my creative partner and I have been working on for several years which focuses on creativity, innovation, inspiration and of course, humor. And yes, for those of you who are bovine-inclined, like me, the main star is a cow! Cheers! Leigh www.RubesCartoons.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NZyHjbbeEg

Be sure Follow Leigh on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter @RubesCartoons Event planners, when’s the last time you had a hilarious and inspirational speaker at your conference, sales meeting, banquet, etc? Hundreds of thought-provoking LOL’s guaranteed! http://www.rubescartoons.com/book-leigh.htm https://www.rubescartoons.com/events.html