Midwest (U.S.)

The Great Dairy Migration: Why the Upper Midwest Is Winning the Heifer Game

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 12:17:46 GMT

The dairy cattle market is currently navigating a period of significant geographical and economic transition. As regional milk surpluses and processor restrictions reshape the landscape, the movement of cattle is telling a story of an industry in the midst of a “Great Migration.”

According to Jake Bettencourt with TLAY Dairy Video Sales, the market for 2026 is defined less by a fear of softening prices and more by a strategic shift toward the Upper Midwest and a relentless focus on the black calf premium.

The Floor on Cattle Prices

As dairy producers look toward 2026, concerns about fluctuating milk prices have led some to wonder if dairy cattle values will begin to soften. Bettencourt acknowledges there is some room for a slight adjustment, but he doesn’t anticipate a dramatic drop. The reason lies in the opportunity purchase.

“Much softer than we are right here and now, producers without immediate need for cattle would purchase cattle if they were any softer,” Bettencourt explains.

He notes that many producers are ready to cull older, less efficient cows and replace them with younger animals if the price gap narrows. This internal herd refreshing creates a natural floor for the market; as soon as prices dip, the demand for younger-for-older swaps surges, propping values back up.

The Midwest Magnet

Perhaps the most visible trend in the current market is the destination of the cattle. While regulars continue to buy cattle to fill holes caused by weather or reproduction issues, the bulk of cattle being merchandised for new or expanding facilities are heading to the Upper Midwest.

The migration of cattle is being driven by a powerful pull from the Midwest. As billions of dollars in new processing capacity come online in the Upper Midwest and Plains states, these regions have become the industry’s primary growth engines.

While Western states like California and Idaho remain dense dairy hubs, the most significant new opportunities for expansion are happening farther east. Consequently, Western cattle are being funneled toward these new facilities in the Midwest, where the infrastructure and market conditions are most conducive to long-term growth.

This pull toward the Midwest is perhaps most evident in South Dakota. The state has seen its dairy cow population more than double over the past decade, marking a 117% increase, according to USDA. The growth is a result of strategic planning and collaboration among stakeholders, says Tom Peterson, executive director for the South Dakota Dairy Producers. The surge is closely tied to the expansion of processing facilities, fueling increased demand for dairy cows.

In the last five years alone, the number of dairy cows has risen by 88,000, or 69%, positioning South Dakota as a national leader in dairy cow inventory growth.

“Leaders and stakeholders came together to develop a plan not only to ensure dairy survived in South Dakota, but with aspirations of creating a dairy destination for the state,” Peterson says.

In economic terms, South Dakota’s dairy industry generates $1.1 billion in wages and contributes significantly to both federal and state tax revenues. The sector supports 15,000 jobs, underscoring its integral role in the state’s economy.

For cattle moving out of the West, South Dakota represents the gold standard of this new processing-driven frontier.

The Black Calf Premium: Beef Over Genetics?

One of the most surprising shifts in buyer preference is the value placed on the calf a heifer is carrying. While high-quality genetics have traditionally been the primary driver of heifer value, the current beef-on-dairy boom has created a new hierarchy.

Bettencourt shared a striking example from January that highlights this shift. One load of Holstein springers from a top-tier herd with impeccable records and sexed-semen confirmation sold for $3,300. Meanwhile, two loads of heifers from raisers — with no birthdates, no records and bred to natural-service Black Angus bulls — sold for $3,400.

“The main trend currently is, ‘What calf is a springer carrying?’” Bettencourt notes.

In today’s market, the immediate, high-value payout of a beef-cross calf can sometimes outweigh the long-term genetic reputation of the cow itself. For many buyers, the beef-on-dairy revenue is a critical component of their 2026 survival strategy.

Signs of Future Growth

Despite the challenges in the West, the demand for open heifers remains robust, which Bettencourt views as a clear indicator that the industry is still planning for growth. Fresh heifers also remain in high demand, though Western consignments face a slight disadvantage due to the freight costs required to get them to the Midwest.

As the industry moves toward 2026, the cattle market reflects a broader structural change. The dairy producer of the future is increasingly focused on vertical integration, whether that means moving to a more favorable milk-marketing region or diversifying income through the beef-on-dairy market. While the geography of the American dairy farm may be shifting, the demand for quality young stock remains the heartbeat of the industry.

Your Next Read:
Idaho’s $4 Billion Dairy Boom: Why the Gem State is Defying West Coast Trends

Be Aware: Dangerous Asian Longhorned Tick Continues Migrating West

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:42:45 GMT

The Asian Longhorned Tick (ALHT) poses a serious threat to cattle health. ALHTs carry Theileria, which is a protozoan parasite that infects red and white blood cells. It can lead to anemia and, in some cases, death.

ALHTs are native to eastern Asia, eastern China, Japan, the Russian Far East and Korea but were introduced to Australia, New Zealand and western Pacific Islands. In other countries, it can also be called a bush tick, cattle tick or scrub tick.

In the U.S., ALHT was first detected in New Jersey in 2017. Since then, it has spread to more than 20 states with recent confirmations in Illinois , Michigan and Iowa .

According to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) ALHTs are known to carry pathogens, which can cause disease and may also cause distress to the host from their feeding in large numbers. For example, a dairy cow may have a 25% decrease in milk production after becoming a host.

A female can reproduce without a mate and lay up to 2,000 eggs at a time. This can cause great stress on a heavily infested animal and result in reduced growth and production. A severe infestation can kill the animal from excessive blood loss.

Asian longhorned tick life stages and relative actual size.

(Photos of unfed ticks by Centers for Disease Control. Photos of engorged ticks by Jim Occi, Rutgers, Center for Vector Biology.)

What does it look like?

Unfed ALHTs range from a light reddish-tan to a dark red with brown, dark markings. While the adult female grows to the size of a pea when full of blood, other stages of the tick are very small — about the size of a sesame seed.

Adult females are a grey-green with yellowish markings. Male ticks are rare.

APHIS reports it only takes a single tick to create a population in a new location.

The above photos are of a AHLT engorged (on the left) and an adult AHLT not engorged.

(New Jersey Department of Agriculture)

ALHTs need warm-blooded hosts to feed and survive. They have been found on various species of domestic animals — such as sheep, goats, dogs, cats, horses, cattle and chickens — and wildlife. The tick has also been found on people.

What are the health risks?

APHIS says ALHTs are not known to carry Lyme disease, but they can cause tickborne diseases affecting humans and animals such as:

Rocky Mountain spotted fever
Heartland virus
Powassan virus

APHIS says those diseases have not been confirmed outside of a laboratory setting in the U.S. In addition, U.S. ALHT populations can transmit U.S. Theileria orientalis Ikeda strain (Cattle theileriosis) in the laboratory.

In an Iowa State University release , Grant Dewell, Extension beef veterinarian and associate professor, says cattle affected by Theileriosis will show signs of lethargy, anemia and difficulty breathing. They may develop ventral edema, exercise intolerance, jaundice and abortions.

“Although signs of Theileriosis are similar to anaplasmosis, younger animals and calves often display more severe signs compared to mature cows and bulls,” he says. “Due to anemia from both tick infestation and Theileria, the risk of death can be elevated. If cattle producers suspect either Theileria or ALHT, have a veterinarian collect appropriate samples and submit them to a veterinary diagnostic lab.”

According to an Oklahoma State University press release , under laboratory conditions ALHT is a competent vector of numerous pathogens that can cause disease in humans, including Rickettsia rickettsii (Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever), Heartland Virus and Powassan Virus.

In “ Clinical Infectious Diseases, ” Bobbi Pritt, MD, MSC, with the division of clinical microbiology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., reported a human bite that occurred in New York in 2019. She says though the report of a human bite isn’t surprising, it proves the invasive longhorned tick continues to bite hosts in its newest location.

“This is extremely worrisome for several reasons,” she writes. “One reason is Asian longhorned ticks can carry several important human pathogens, including the potentially fatal severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) virus and Rickettsia japonica, which cases Japanese spotted fever. While these pathogens have yet to be found in the United States, there is a risk of their future introduction.”

Also, Pritt says several other human pathogens have been detected in the ticks, but it’s not clear if the ALHT species are able to transmit them to humans. They include Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Rickettsia, and Borrelia species. Lyme disease is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi bacteria.

She warns the organisms are present in states where ALHTs have been found and that it’s possible the tick — known to be an aggressive biter— might be able to transmit Heartland virus given its close relationship to SFTS virus.

How to Tackle Ticks

According to APHIS, various strategies effectively mitigate tick populations on hosts and in the environment.

Regular tick treatments should be effective against ALHTs. Consult your veterinarian or agriculture extension agent about which products to use.
Check your livestock for ticks regularly.
Safely remove ticks from people and pets as quickly as possible. If you think you’ve found an ALHT, seal it in a zip-top bag and give it to your veterinarian for identification.
Habitat modifications can help prevent ticks on feedlots and pastures. This may include mowing grass, removing trees, reducing shade by thinning trees, understory removal and placing mulch barriers.
Apply acaricide using label instructions to tick habitats, such as woodland edges and grassy patches, during times when ticks are most actively seeking hosts. Although it varies by year, ALHTs are generally active from March to November. Consult your state and local regulations for approved acaricides.

“Cattle producers should aggressively control external parasites this summer,” Dewell summarizes. “Insecticide ear tags alone are not enough to control ticks. Consider incorporating a back rubber or regularly applying a pour-on during the summer. Pyrethroid-based products are also available that include a tick control label. If an increase in tick infestations is observed, an avermectin pour-on may be the best intervention.”

Your Next Read: 1,500-lb. Carcasses the New Normal, Not the Exception

All The Details: Inside John Deere’s New F8 and F9 Forage Harvesters

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 18:20:35 GMT

John Deere is rolling out two new forage harvesters for North American dairy producers and custom harvesting operations.

The brand new F8 and F9 Series feature three factory-installed operator cab options, a technology stack that will one day enable autonomous operation, and enhanced feed quality via an integrated inoculant dosing system.

How are F8 and F9 different?
The F8 Series (425PS to 645PS) is a narrow base model that takes the place of Deere’s 8000 Series forage harvester, while the F9 Series (700PS to 1020PS) replaces the 9000 Series. Within the F9 Series is the F9 1000, which is Deere’s largest forage harvest machine to date.

(Editor’s Note: “PS” stands for Pferdestärke, which is the German term for horsepower. PS to horsepower is not an apples-to-apples equal ratio. The F9 1000, for example, features 1020PS which equates to 1,006HP, according to the manufacturer.)

The F9 is available in two engine options:

John Deere 18X (no DEF required)
Liebherr V12 24L

It has five horsepower options, while the F8 comes with the JD14X engine and can be configured across six horsepower options.

The manufacturer last rolled out completely new forage harvesters in 2019.

How much will each new model cost?

The feed rolls on John Deere’s F8 and F9 forage harvesters have integrated metal detection to keep unwanted material out of your feed.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

John Deere is not sharing its pricing just yet, but the two new models are built at its Zweibrucken, Germany, factory. John Deere dealers will begin taking orders for the aggressively styled, technology-packed harvesters this fall, with final delivery in time for the 2026 forage harvesting season.

Deere representatives declined comment on what effect, if any, the still-developing U.S.and E.U. tariff situation could have on its launch plans.

Ahead of the launch, Farm Journal went to Madison, Wisc., to kick the tires and learn all about the new machines. The F8 and F9 harvesters we viewed and climbed into were the first finished production units off the factory line. Deere says several units will be field tested with U.S. customers ahead of the full fall launch.

“We’re really excited about the new cab and the technology we’ve added to these machines like central tire inflation, ground speed automation and the new kernel processing units,” says Bergen Nelson, go-to-market manager, combines and forage harvesters.

Here’s some of what we learned about the new forage harvesters:

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Cab Comforts: The same three operator cab options offered with Deere’s X and S Series combines — Select, Premium and Ultimate — are available on the F8 and F9 Series. A smoothly swiveling captain’s chair, as well as an all-new corner post display that shows real-time machine data, are among the additions. Operators who spend long hours in the cab will also appreciate integrated entertainment like SXM Radio and an optional mini fridge.

(Matthew J. Grassi )

Foundational Deere Tech Stack: Each new forage harvester in the series includes Deere’s baseline precision tech enablement stack — which consists of its G5 display, Starfire 7500 receiver and JDLink modem.

Central Tire Inflation System: A completely new feature (top left inset photo) within the G5 display allows the operator to adjust front tire PSI up or down from the cab.

John Deere Inoculant Dosing System 2.0

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Inoculant Dosing System 2.0: New on both the F8 and F9, a high-volume 85 gallon inoculant tank and integrated pump allow the user to accurately adjust silage inoculant dosage rates from the G5 display in the cab. The system is easy to pump and prime as well with the touch of a button located at the rear of the machine.

Ground Speed Automation: This cruise control-like option reads RPMs and throttles the harvester up or down based on crop conditions. For example, harvesting corn at higher moisture levels will increase power output, so the machine will automatically slow down to ensure it doesn’t plug up or do a sub-optimal job harvesting. This feature comes standard on all base models for both series and does not require a yearly subscription unlock or per-acre fee.

Pro Touch Harvest: Another new feature within the G5 display allows the operator to shift the machine from road transport mode to harvest mode in a single click. It can also be used to quickly engage AutoTrac and ground speed automation once the operator arrives at the edge of field.

This all-new XStream 305 Kernel Processing (KP) unit is built by Scherer in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Kernal Processing (KP) Units: The new harvesters feature two completely redesigned KP units, the Ultimate 250 (also made in Germany) and the Scherer XStream 305, which is made in Sioux Falls, S.D. An integrated winch and internal rail mounting system makes switching the machine from corn forage to hay forage in the field quick and simple. The number signifies each KP unit’s roll diameter width in millimeters.

“Both KPs will go in both machines and have four different roll options depending on how aggressive the dairyman wants their end feed quality to be,” says Shane Campbell, product marketing manager, forage harvesters.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Integrated Harvest Lab 3000: This on-demand constituent sensing module pulls over 4,000 samples per second with +/- 2% accuracy, and John Deere says it can save dairy operations time and money versus collecting and sending samples to a lab. The sensor tech (available as an add-on option) enables accurate measurement and documentation of dry matter, starch, protein, neutral detergent fiber and acid detergent fiber for both harvested forage and manure. The data can be stored, organized and shared via Deere’s Operations Center. Within Operations Center, users can take geo-referenced data and build out spatial starch content — as well as moisture and protein — maps for hybrid selection and fertility management. Because if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.

Active Fill Control 3.0: Using sensors and cameras on the grain spout, this tech feature automatically detects the trailer or grain cart next to the forage harvester and begins filling it with a preselected fill strategy. This reduces the number of times an operator has to adjust the spout manually and also lessens fatigue and neck strain, according to Deere.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Operating Modes: Several of the models within the F9 Series offer what Deere is calling its “Engine Power Plus” feature — which gives a sizeable horsepower boost when the machines senses it needs a little extra chopping power to the harvesting head. There is also an ECO mode that can be toggled on when the machines don’t need the extra torque.

Ease-Of-Access: Both models have side and rear panels that easily open to grant full access to the inner workings of the machines, making the new forage harvesters much easier to service and maintain without a lift or other heavy specialized equipment. The machine is setup so techs and mechanically-minded farmers will not have to climb underneath it to perform daily maintenance.

“At the end of the day, we know it’s all about the cow, and these machines will put out quality feed,” Nelson says. “We’ll have these out at the farm shows this summer, including Farm Progress Show, World Ag Expo, World Dairy Expo and the U.S. Custom Harvesters Convention.”

Your Next Read - Renewed Confidence: The Dairy Industry is Optimistic in 2025

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:23:00 GMT

This week’s USDA crop progress report shows conditions continuing to decline for corn and soybeans. For corn, 69% is in good to excellent condition (down 3% from last week). The total soybean crop in good to excellent condition is also down 3% - from 70% last week to 67% this week.

And while some growers have severe drought to blame, others can point to extreme flooding.

This June has held two different extremes--

💧One of the wettest on record for the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains

☀️While being one of the driest on record for the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic

👉The rest of the month? More rain for the Upper Midwest while drier than normal… pic.twitter.com/aWVZ1o5gsB
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) June 23, 2024

In Iowa, growers might need to grab a life jacket before going to check their fields.

Abby and I went out and scouted a little bit of corn this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/yBBLsAjFkp
— Pete Crew. (Not the sharpest knife in the drawer). (@pete_90210) June 23, 2024

Last year we had 5.5" rain during growing season and this farm averaged 240 bu. This year 16" so far in May/June. pic.twitter.com/wOsGJsH4hm
— Living the dream (@NeIowaFarmer) June 22, 2024

Rock Valley, IA Flooding today. What a trainwreck pic.twitter.com/rumOfxyslQ
— Chris VB🐷🐖🌾🚤⛳ (@chrsvnbk) June 22, 2024

South Dakota farmers are having a similar experience - with this operation reporting 10" of rain in one day.

Water running into lake, yes my folks have house here! My farm is completely engulfed, can’t get within 15 miles. Animals safe, daughter safe we appreciate all of the kindness. Stay safe ❤️ pic.twitter.com/NvVMjqXDas
— ChelLewis (@LewisEQAcademy) June 24, 2024

The Oklahoma Pork Council has even started work to help those affected by the flood.

We are working to support our friends in the panhandle with food and other assistance as they recover from severe flash flooding. If you know of a direct need that our alliance of great community members can help meet, please give us a call or email us at kdeniz@okpork.org. pic.twitter.com/KT0meG0k5H
— Oklahoma Pork (@Okpork) June 19, 2024

But it seems the rain is only falling in one part of the country as farmers further east are hoping the skies open up soon.

Somewhere between the flood and us

It is just right pic.twitter.com/jUvV2wWBTY
— Stephen Ellis 190/58 (@sellis_1994) June 22, 2024

Hot Weather and Recent Dryness Create Favorable Conditions for Rapid Drought Development. https://t.co/UMw8lZcKJV pic.twitter.com/Unqb9Al6oa
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) June 24, 2024

Click here to let us know how your crops are progressing.

Farmland Values Remain Strong, Expected To Stabilize In 2024

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 22:25:26 GMT

After multiple years of record land values, Farmers National Company (FNC) is expecting the market to stabilize in the year ahead.

In their January 2024 land values report, the company shared the sharp increase in farmland values has slowed, and values are holding strong.

“The key point, without a doubt, is resiliency,” Paul Schadegg, FNC senior vice president of real estate operations, shared with U.S. Farm Report. “Even with all the pressures that we’ve seen - some declining commodity markets, interest rates being higher than what we’re used to, and the cost of inputs - we really expected more of a settling of land values. And we really haven’t seen it–no decreases to speak of and still some really strong sales out there in the country.”

Demand for farmland has remained strong as well, though the focus has turned to high quality land that is available in a limited supply – something Schadegg says will help maintain current values.

The limited supply of land is anticipated to continue as some landowners decide to hold their assets due to its value.

“When we look at the seller side, we have many sellers that are looking at their land right now and deciding that it’s never been worth more than it is today and make that decision to sell. But at the same time, some of those sellers are looking at it and at the appreciation in value that they’ve seen over the last 20 to 25 years, and realizing that it’s a very valuable asset that provides them a return and making the decision to hold that land. And that’s keeping a certain amount of inventory off the market,” Schadegg says.

FNC completed nearly 700 transactions across the Midwest in 2023 – a number that is below 2021 and 2022 levels but still above average for the company. Of those sales, 80% of the buyers have been local farmers and operators.

“When this land market it really took off, the primary pool of buyers were operating farmers, and they continue to be the successful buyer of land,” Schadegg says. “But behind that is the investor that is pushing them to the levels they are paying for the land.”

As far as what may come in the year ahead, FNC expects the commodity markets and input costs to play a large role. And while easing interest rates and reduced inflation could help the farmland market, global uncertainty and U.S. political factors remain a wild card.

“Over the past 25 years, average land values have experienced steady growth following the 1980s farm crisis. Under a strong ag economy, Farmers National Company expects that trend to continue,” Schadegg says.

The company breaks down what to expect by region as well.

“Iowa continues to be a strong point, but also, Illinois and Indiana have picked up a little steam. And a lot of the sales that we’re seeing out there are quite strong, in the $20,000 plus range,” Schadegg says. “Another little pocket that has typically not seen a lot of activity in the recent past, but we have here in the last six to 12 months, is northwest Missouri. There’s some very good quality land that hasn’t changed hands much in the past, and there’s been some great competition there.”

2024 Land Value Influencers in Your Region

Mon, 04 Dec 2023 21:41:34 GMT

Using a combination of data with boots on the ground experience, Peoples Company has released its fourth annual land values report.

The report shows a three-year period of remarkable land appreciation across the country – something Bruce Sherrick, professor and director of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research at the University of Illinois, says has not been surprising.

“We kind of have a rolling narrative around this and quite often people will remark it’s shocking that farmland almost anticipated inflation or that it’s shocking how well that’s done through time. And I don’t think I’m surprised by that,” he says. “I’m surprised by the accuracy or the degree or the strength of that relationship if anything.”

Annual rates of return have been in the double digits for many regions. In the Northern Plains region specifically, the rate of change in the past year has been especially high.

(Farm Journal)

“In the last year, what we’ve seen is really quite remarkable in the middle of the country,” Sherrick says. “That area has kind of caught up to previous years in the Midwest and Lake states.”

As far as what’s affecting land values in the rest of the country, Peoples Company breaks the data into eight regions.

Pacific West

(Farm Journal)

Annual performance on permanent cropland in the Pacific West and California has suffered in recent years due to a period of low nut prices, tariffs, water challenges and high operating capital.

3 Unique Characteristics of The Permanent Crop Industry

Steve Bruere, president of Peoples Company, anticipates a lot of land transactions in the California market in 2024.

“The amount of irrigated, plantable acreage is shrinking,” he adds. “The acreage left standing will be more valuable over time because of the optionality of what you can grow on it.”

Pacific Northwest

(Farm Journal)

Similar to the Pacific West, the Pacific Northwest has had a period of good returns and offers a lot of optionality of what can be grown on the land. The land values in comparison to its western neighbors, however, are much lower to produce a similar product. That factor – alongside increased access to water resources – allows the region to absorb displaced production from other areas.

“We’re seeing at least that phase of exploration on some of those fresh market crops that may have some compressed acreage and higher water costs to deal with in California looking at the Pacific Northwest, the Columbia River Basin area in particular, as a transition point,” says Dave Muth, Peoples Company’s capital markets managing director.

Southern Plains

(Farm Journal)

The Southern Plains region – Texas and Oklahoma – is experiencing good land value returns despite water issues and labor complications. As these challenges continue, renewable energy projects are becoming key to the region’s profitability.

“Think about it: 20,30, or 40 years ago, when someone was looking to buy a ranch, if transmission lines ran across it, that might take it off the list. Now those same transmission lines are seen as a huge asset,” says Eric O’Keefe, editor of The Land Report. “This emphasis on energy, whether it be in terms of oil and gas or renewables including direct carbon capture, is going to be a complete game changer. I think it’s going to be driving land values in Texas for decades to come.”

Northern Plains

(Farm Journal)

Total returns per year in the Northern Plains over the past three years are averaged at 18.5% - the highest in the country.

“The increase in values have been rather dramatic compared to other parts of the country in the last three-year period. Part of that’s driven by relative yield gains, but it’s also the genetics and the attention to doing genetics for this part of the country by the major seed corn and other seed producers,” Sherrick says. “It has made this a possible competitor for the rest of the country.”

The focus on foreign and corporate ownership in this area also makes it unique in comparison to other regions.

“You see a difference in these types of markets where the farmers aren’t driving values,” Bruere says. “If you take that institutional investor out of the market, it definitely impacts land values and we saw that real time this summer and Kansas and Colorado.”

Delta Market

(Farm Journal)

The Delta Market – Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas – has seen the most stable returns over time when compared to other regions across the country, which makes it attractive to outside investors.

“You don’t get necessarily the same swings that we get in the Midwest in this market. And I’m really bullish – you’ve got plenty of water and you’ve got large fields,” Bruere says. “One of the issues we do struggle with in this market is the tenant pool. You don’t have that same competitive nature for tenants that you’ve gotten Midwest.”

Southeast Market

(Farm Journal)

The Southeast – Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina – has seen moderate returns in comparison to the other regions. The increase in severe weather as well as development in the area leads Sherrick to expect quite a bit of transition in the future.

“I’m actually not worried about land values, hardly at all in this region, for traditional agricultural things,” he says. “Land that gets displaced for a retirement community, a park, golf course or major league baseball facility aren’t reductions in value. They’re just a reduction in the use of it for agriculture.”

Lake States

(Farm Journal)

The Great Lakes region is one Sherrick describes as “still trying to figure out who they’re going to be”.

“There’s great optionality, reasonable acquisition prices and massive increases in land values that have kind of kept the returns high, very correlated with inflation as well,” he says.

Though the yields in the region may not be as high as in the corn belt, the area’s total returns per year over the past three years have averaged 14%.

Corn Belt

(Farm Journal)

Sherrick refers to Illinois and Indiana as indicators and predictors of what’s happening in the agriculture industry.

The region continues to have high appreciation values and above average farm incomes, though transactions have slowed in 2023. The corn belt is anticipated to have continued interest from non-operating investors.

Looking at 2024
Overall, Peoples Company reports the driving factors behind land values are income, interest rates and inflation. As we move into 2024, they expect this will begin to normalize.

Buyer demand is also expected to remain a key player.

“There’s more money that wants to own farmland in there as farmland for sale. That dynamic is not going to change in 2024,” says Bruere. “Right now it feels like interest rates are pulling back a little bit and I think the landmark is going to remain pretty stable in 2024.”

A Timeline of the Fair Oaks Farms Investigation

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:49:18 GMT

The nation’s largest dairy remains in the headlines this week after an animal activist group released multiple videos of alleged animal abuse.

AgDay and U.S. Farm Report national reporter Betsy Jibben has a report on a timeline of events.

Wisconsin Sees Decline in Number of Dairy Farms

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:01:17 GMT

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — The number of dairy farms in Wisconsin is falling, despite an increase in milk production as commercial farms expand.

Wisconsin Public Radio reports that numbers from the state Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection show the state lost 500 dairy farms last year. Wisconsin had just over 8,800 dairy herds licensed at the beginning of this year.

Steven Deller is a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Deller says it’s difficult for small-scale dairy farms to be profitable, so the number of commercial farms will probably continue to decrease.

Kevin Bernhardt is a UW-Platteville agribusiness professor. He says fewer farms could hurt rural communities.

But Deller says small producers can tap into the growing interest in local food and specialty crops instead.

___

Information from: Wisconsin Public Radio, http://www.wpr.org