Planting

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:55 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:24 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 21:41:51 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

Life After BMR: How Dairy Farmers Can Rethink Corn Silage

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 22:23:06 GMT

For years, brown midrib (BMR) corn silage has been a solid forage option for dairy producers looking to push forage quality and milk production. While it was rarely planted across an entire farm, many producers valued BMR as a strategic addition to their hybrid lineup.

But as seed companies have adjusted their hybrid portfolios, BMR options have become less available. As a result, many producers are preparing for a future where BMR is no longer a choice, and they are reevaluating their silage plans with that change in mind.

During the Professional Dairy Producers Business Conference, John Goeser, dairy nutrition and management consultant at Progressive Dairy Solutions Inc., and Luiz Ferraretto, assistant professor and Extension specialist in dairy nutrition at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, discussed what that shift could mean for dairy rations and how producers can adapt.

What BMR Offered

Compared with conventional corn silage, BMR hybrids typically deliver greater fiber digestibility and lower levels of undigestible fiber. The difference stems from reduced lignin in the plant cell wall, allowing rumen microbes to break down more of the neutral detergent fiber (NDF).

Because the fiber in BMR silage was easier for cows to use, they often ate more and gained more energy from their ration.

“If you improve fiber digestibility, there is potential for cows to improve intake,” Ferraretto says. “And when intake increases, there is potential for greater milk production.”

Despite these advantages, BMR typically made up only a portion of a farm’s corn silage acres. The hybrids often yielded less than conventional corn silage and carried a greater agronomic risk. Over time, these challenges pushed some producers away from the variety.

“For whatever reason, people were not really planting BMR a lot anymore,” Ferraretto says. “But whenever companies decided that this would be phasing out of the market, everybody started asking, ‘What do I do now?’”

According to Ferraretto and Goeser, the answer is not to search for a direct replacement. Instead, the transition away from BMR may push producers to rethink how they evaluate and manage corn silage altogether.

Selecting Hybrids

As BMR corn silage phases out, producers are learning they cannot rely on a single hybrid trait to solve digestibility challenges. While BMR delivered higher fiber digestibility than conventional corn, that advantage came from a specific genetic mutation most other hybrids do not have.

“BMR corn silage sits in its own class for fiber digestibility,” Goeser says. “No current conventional hybrid matches it in the same way.”

Corn silage quality has always come from a mix of traits, not just one. Hybrid choices for digestibility, starch and overall forage quality matter, but so do agronomic traits like standability, disease resistance and yield potential.

“What drives our bottom line isn’t necessarily how much cows eat but what efficiency we get,” Goeser says. “We need to understand what our cost of production is per acre. Then we can judge our hybrid choice and our management decisions relative to the yield and energy we’re getting from that acre.”

According to Ferraretto’s colleagues at UW-Madison, choosing hybrids with strong fiber digestibility, measured as neutral detergent fiber digestibility at 30 hours (NDFD30), is an option. Most conventional corn silage hybrids have NDFD30 values between 47% and 67%, while BMR hybrids typically range from 54% to 74%. Choosing a top-performing conventional hybrid with NDFD30 around 60% to 65% can produce as much, or even more, milk per ton than an average BMR hybrid.

“There’s nothing that’s going to replace a brown midrib mutant, kernel for kernel, in terms of fiber digestibility,” Goeser says. “But there are still several management decisions producers can make to improve fiber digestibility in their silage program.”

Planting Population

How many corn plants are planted per acre can affect silage quality. Research with the Midwest Forage Association found that planting 30,000 plants per acre produced higher fiber digestibility than planting 35,000 or 40,000 plants per acre. In other words, fewer plants per acre can make forage easier for cows to digest.

“Generally speaking, with greater plant populations, say 40,000 to 45,000, we see a decrease in fiber digestibility,” Goeser says. “Yield will increase, but there’s a negative relationship between quality and yield.”

Increasing plant population can boost total dry matter yield, but only to a point. Beyond that, adding more plants may not improve yield and can reduce digestibility. Farmers also need to consider other risks, such as higher potential for insect and disease damage when plants are crowded.

Not every hybrid reacts the same way. Soil type, fertility, row spacing and weather during the growing season can all change how plant population affects silage quality. That means planting decisions should be tailored to each farm and each field rather than following a single number for all acres.

Cutting Height

Among the tools available to improve fiber digestibility, adjusting chop height is one of the simplest and most effective. Raising the cutter bar leaves the lower, most fibrous part of the plant in the field and harvests more of the digestible portion.

“I’ve been asked many times what happens if we increase our cut by 8 or 10 inches,” Goeser says. “Every 10 inches higher, we give up about a ton and a half in as-fed yield, but we gain roughly two units of starch and two units of fiber digestibility. This strategy essentially trades some total tonnage for higher-quality feed.”

Research supports this approach. Studies show that milk per ton is highest at a cutter bar height of 18 inches and lowest at 6 inches. Yield drops about 15% at the higher cut, but starch concentration increases.

However, the economics of higher cuts depend on the year. In years with big crops, it is easier to trade some yield for better feed quality. In tighter years, the focus may shift toward maximizing tonnage. The key is to make the decision intentionally, rather than treating chop height as a fixed setting. Even with the best hybrid, fertility and disease control, timing the harvest and processing the silage properly is critical to capture its full feed value.

Adjusting for the Future

As BMR becomes harder to find, the focus will shift toward a broader mix of management decisions that shape forage quality. Hybrid selection, harvest timing, chop height and emerging genetics all play a role in shaping forage quality. The challenge for producers will be determining how those pieces fit together within the economics of their operation.

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:42 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 13:04:57 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

Let Mother Nature Do The Talking

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:04:41 GMT

Planting soybeans early is increasingly a norm for farmers in the Midwest, but research from Iowa State suggests there’s a fine line between early and too early.

According to Iowa State University Extension cropping systems specialist Mark Licht, the decision on when to start planting isn’t found on a calendar.

“When we think about planting, we really should be thinking about soil conditions,” Licht says. “Are the soils fit? What’s the moisture of those soils? We don’t want them too wet, because that causes compaction.”

Know Your Conditions And The Forecast

Licht urges growers to watch for soil temperatures of about 50°F and rising, before heading to fields. The focus should be on “fit” soils –not too wet to avoid compaction from wheel traffic and down pressure. He also advises checking the weather outlook for three or four days after planting.

“Really, the first 12 to 24 hours are the most important, because that’s when the seed is imbibing water… if it’s kind of a cold water, the shock can disrupt cell membranes and cause germination issues down the road,” he warns.

Planting into cold, moisture-saturated ground doesn’t just slow things down—it also invites seedling diseases and the potential for a costly replant, which carries an automatic yield penalty.

Finding the Planting Sweet Spot

While an “ultra-early” trend of planting soybeans in March has gained traction in some farming circles, Licht’s data suggests it’s not worth the gamble. In Iowa field trials, mid-March planting showed farmers saw a reduction in final stands, gained only a meager three days in emergence and had no yield increase.

“Planting early is good, but not too early… April 15 to May 20 [in Iowa] is probably about the sweet spot,” he says.

Beyond that timing, though, yield penalties usually start to mount. Survey data from Iowa farmers show losses “anywhere from a .2 to a .5 bushel per acre per day” as planting is delayed after May 20, Licht reports.

The Corn Pivot: When to Switch Gears?

As planting season progresses, your strategy should shift from “when to start” to “what to prioritize.” The calendar does come into play.

Licht notes that if farmers in Iowa can wrap up both corn and soybeans by mid-May, the planting order for the two crops is flexible.

“But if we can’t get everything planted timely, then we should prioritize planting corn timely, because it has a much steeper penalty for being planted late, compared to soybeans,” Licht says.

Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, adds some perspective for those farmers who might feel behind by the time May arrives if they aren’t in the field. In central Illinois, May-planted corn has actually outperformed April plantings for the past three consecutive years due to better moisture availability.

Still, Ferrie says: “My advice for farmers here in central Illinois is if the ground is fit in April, plant some corn.”

But he also cautions against forcing the issue, as May can provide benefits.

“We never know how the rest of the year will play out,” Ferrie says. “Breaking the planting window up is a good way to mitigate risk and take the jam out of the fall of having everything ready at the same time.”

Osler Ortez, Ohio State Extension corn specialist, agrees that flexibility is key especially for those farmers with a single planter. “Focus on corn then [when conditions are right]. Once you get it planted, you can go back to finish up soybeans,” he says.

Hear more of Mark Licht’s perspective at YouTube on the Do’s and Dont’s of Early Soybean Planting here .

The Omega Block Has Taken Over, And It Could Have a Major Impact on Drought and Planting Progress

Tue, 06 May 2025 21:14:38 GMT

What was a rapid planting progress across the Midwest became stalled by a wetter weather pattern to finish April. But now that we’re into May, an Omega Block is causing that pattern to shift, and that could bring good news for the drought-stricken Plains. It could also propel planting progress.

Michael Clark, CEO and co-founder of BAM Weather, says the rainfall totals over the past week have been unprecedented.

“If you look at areas like the South Central Plains, we have had rainfall totals that have exceeded really a foot or more of rain,” Clark says. “Places like Oklahoma, north-central Texas, that’s a 13" rainfall observation the last seven days. So the South Central Plains has been inundated with rain.”

Rainfall the past seven days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weater )

There were other areas that saw a sudden onset of moisture, which includes central Iowa, the Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

“We’ve lacked in the way of rain in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,” Clark says. “That’s going to matter a little bit going forward.”

Brace Yourself for the Omega Block

Areas of the Midwest will see warmer and drier weather this week, while parts of the drought-stricken Plains are starting to see some much needed rains, and the Omega Block is to thank for that.

“The Omega block, essentially, what it does is it brings in an area of high pressure over the central part of the country. And in the seven day rainfall map here, that we have, that shows the forecast. It kind of shuts moisture off in the central U.S., but it adds to it in the West and into the East and even to the South,” Clark says.

The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

“You can kind of see that U shape forecast there,” he adds. “This is a seven day rainfall forecast map, so for a lot of folks in the heart of the Grain Belt, there is going to be really a shutoff in moisture as we head into May, but there will be an excess of moisture across the Deep South continuing.”

Clark says it could be too much of a good thing for some, as he’s concerned about too much rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

“But the Omega block is good news for folks that need to get into the field and get some work done,” he adds.

A Big Warm-Up in May

April turned out to be a cooler than average month for temperatures. In fact, many farmers in the Midwest will tell you there’s one thing their crop needs right now, and that’s more sun.

Clark says the forecast is turning warmer and there is not as much rain predicted over the middle of the country.

“The forecast right now for the May temperature outlook is for, I think temperatures to start to warm up relatively pretty quickly for the month of May,” Clark says. “Most of the U.S. growing regions are going to be at or much above normal temperatures and probably a pretty rapid onset to summer. So there is going to be a rapid uptick in the planting pace here over the next couple of weeks, no doubt about that.”

May temperature outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather)

As for the precipitation, Clark says it’s leaning toward favorable for planting progress, as well, but he is concerned about the dryness starting to creep in.

“It will be good for planting. I’m concerned that late May into June, we may be running into some deficits and needing some rainfall,” he says. “So the outlook right now is as we get further into May and into June I’m concern about a potential shutoff and moisture and a little bit more heat to contend with.”

May moisture outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

Concerns About Dryness

Clark says when you look at how the May forecast is shaping up, he compares it more to years like 2001, 2006, 2012, and even 2021.

“Now, whenever I drop 2012, people’s ears always perk up and they get a little nervous, rightfully so,” he says. “I’m not saying a year like 2012 would happen, but I am concerned overall that years like that, they present issues with lack of moisture and excessive heat. I think this growing season is something that will be presented with its fair share of challenges in the weather department.”

Another Week of Major Planting Progress Wraps Up April

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:52:25 GMT

At this point in April, the majority of the farmers have buckled in for spring planting. And with another week of favorable conditions in the tractor’s rearview mirror, USDA has released the latest update on planting progress.

As of April 27, the report calculates 24% of corn and 18% of soybeans are in the ground. That’s up from 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans at this time last week.

The most progress since the last report goes to:
Corn

North Carolina (18% gain)
Minnesota (17% gain)
Iowa, Tennessee and South Dakota (16% gain)

Soybeans

Mississippi (19% gain)
Iowa and Louisiana (14% gain)
Arkansas (13% gain)

Progress up to this point is right on track with last year — with corn 1% behind and soybeans 1% ahead of the 2024 numbers.

Good Conditions To Go Around
With warm, sunny weather and rain where it’s needed, farmers are starting to feel cautiously optimistic for what’s ahead this growing season.

Started beans today. I thought the conditions were great before the rain the other day, even better now. After the last 2 wet miserable planting seasons I'll take it. Hopefully I don't jink myself #plant25 #notill pic.twitter.com/B3azISX2PF
— Bryan Biegler (@BryanBiegs) April 26, 2025

This oughta ease some drought concerns for a while around here. Already double what the forecast was pic.twitter.com/ENOizKjJGu
— Jacob Birklid (@NDSodbuster) April 28, 2025

In fact, conditions have been so good, some growers (like this Minnesota farmer) are way ahead of schedule.

And just like that, 2025 corn is planted. I can only remember being done with corn in April once before. #plant25 @MSP_Traffic pic.twitter.com/kBzZVPpxEz
— Shawn Anderson (@AndersonSM24680) April 27, 2025

They might even be wondering, “What’s the catch?”

It will either be a bin buster or a drought. It will be one or the other, I have not seen ground work up this nice in several years pic.twitter.com/klaAIP5GHx
— Greg Zimpleman (@gregzimpleman) April 27, 2025

Maybe it’s the ongoing windy conditions .

Planting soybeans into a great stand of rye. You can see the dirt blowing in the distance.

38mph wind gusts at the moment pic.twitter.com/JqipfrVtFk
— Ben Longlet 🇺🇸🌽🌱 (@blonglet) April 26, 2025

Or the forecast for the week ahead.

Let’s get crackin’! But actually let’s wait until after all this predicted hail tomorrow night…. pic.twitter.com/Zky90AX0x8
— Nicole Stecklein (@NicoleStecklein) April 27, 2025

🚨Here's our updated thinking for severe weather threats on Tuesday. Greatest timeframe of concern is from 1PM - 9PM ET. All hazards on the table. pic.twitter.com/WjSUuScifW
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 27, 2025

Whether you’ll be making progress this week, or on a severe weather delay, take a lesson from this farmer-in-training. Grab a snack, pet your dog and catch your breath.

Tractor naps were the best pic.twitter.com/bzP1IF0798
— C Bar J (@CbarJRanch) April 27, 2025

Your Next Read: Want to Boost Soybean Yields But Not Costs? Sunlight Can Help

Why Farmers are Flocking to Auctions for Low-Hour Equipment Deals

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 21:00:42 GMT

The used equipment buying season remains active as spring planting takes off. Farm equipment that is only a few years old with low operating hours continues to draw strong prices at auction.

Machinery Pete noticed that trend last week via a few record-setting transactions. At a Kiko Auctions sale in Diamond, Ohio, a pair of blue tractors and a blue planter raised the bar higher:

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

A 2013 New Holland T7 260 tractor with only 1,226 hours on it brought $152,000, which blasted past the previous record high for that year/model by over $19,000.

(Machinery Pete Facebook )

A 2015 New Holland T5 115 utility tractor with a loader (765 hours) brought in $75,000, beating the previous record high by $7,000.

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

A 2024 Kinze 3505 8/16 row planter with just over 170 acres planted on it sold for $100,000. That set a new record by $17,500.

“There’s a similar pattern here. Whether its blue, green or orange, if it’s got a few years on it with low hours and in nice condition, those prices are very strong right now,” Pete says.

Moving Iron host Casey Seymour, who has over 20 years of experience in the farm equipment dealership space, says there are more farmers hitting auctions than heading to the dealer lot, and that’s typical of a down cycle in the farm economy.

“Things at auction have a higher demand signal than what you see on the lot. When I was working at the dealership, I would see these sales and think, ‘Man, I’ve got five just like that sitting on my lot that I would sell to you for $10,000 less than what you bought that one for.’ But nobody’s coming to the table, and that’s just where we’re at right now,” he says.

Order-Writing Season For New
Aaron Fintel, used equipment specialist with 21st Century Wholesale – a John Deere dealer with 26 storefronts across Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas – joined the podcast to talk about the soon-to-open new machine order-writing period.

Fintel says it’s not something many think about when it comes to buying new, but farmers getting re-approved for financing has “been a process” this year.

“It’s kind of a two-edged sword. If you went and got that new machine at 0% interest at the end of last year because the accountant said to do it, I don’t care that it’s 0% because its also $450,000 sitting on the balance sheet,” he says. “That’s been a huge factor.”

Commodity Markets Update
Chip Nellinger, owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, joined Seymour to wrap up this week’s episode with an update on the commodity markets.

When it comes to corn and soybean futures, Nellinger says there is still “a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the market” but he is seeing some potential upside with President Trump softening on the tariffs against China.

“The stock market seems to be signaling something has changed, and the bean market has been pretty resilient here over the last couple of days,” he says. “There has been a fair amount of activity in planting, and I think that’s why corn has relaxed. We’re ahead of average planting pace at 12% and that’s probably delayed a little bit. So, we should see a lot more progress in next week’s report.”

Nellinger says to keep an eye on the South, where higher-than-average moisture levels have delayed corn planting, and farmers might flip acres to beans or cotton – or even take prevent plant insurance.

Want more Moving Iron? Click this link to watch the episode in full here.

Your Next Read: Farm Bankruptcies Are on the Rise

Planted Acres Soar As Mother Nature Plays Nice (For A Few Days)

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 21:36:02 GMT

Last week’s warm temperatures and handful of rain-free days were a perfect recipe for spring planting — and farmers took full advantage of the opportunity.

Great week of farming. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/KKneurz4Ay
— Travis L (@fishliveinwater) April 19, 2025

At this time last week, USDA reported 4% of corn and 2% of soybean acres had been planted. As of April 20, those numbers have jumped to 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans.

The states with the biggest gains in corn this past week include:

Missouri (24% gain)
North Carolina (23% gain)
Iowa and Kansas (16% gains)

For soybeans, the top states are:

Louisiana (34% gain)
Mississippi (20% gain)
Arkansas (18% gain)

This year’s progress is just ahead of 2024 — up 1% in corn and soybeans alike.

Making Progress While You Can
Not wanting to miss out on Mother Nature cooperating for a few days, some farmers are sharing this is the earliest they’ve planted.

Joined the party. Earliest I’ve ever planted. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/x5yCzGurUf
— Roger Warner (@JDFarmboy) April 18, 2025

This agronomist found corn that’s already emerging in Illinois. USDA reports 2% of the overall corn crop has emerged — mostly in Texas and North Carolina.

We have corn emergence near Stonington, IL. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/oRKQX1AOgR
— Stephanie Porter (@skporter) April 21, 2025

Rain Where It’s Needed?
While a dry spell during planting season is usually good news, there are still many parts of the country in desperate need of a good rain.

It’s dry in Nebraska, @RichVelde! #plant25 pic.twitter.com/kdglMjbkoM
— 🌽 John and my sidekick, Quila 🌾 (@CornDogQuila) April 18, 2025

In fact, as of April 15, USDA reports 30% of corn production and 23% of soybean production occurs in areas currently experiencing some degree of drought.

(USDA)

Though it won’t be enough to reverse a drought, planting did come to a halt over the weekend for some of those states in need of moisture. Farmers’ freshly planted crop received a solid soak as they got a quick break to enjoy time with family.

We got the crust softening rain plus some the corn needed. pic.twitter.com/o2hWbmP2p6
— Zach Townsend (@TandTAg) April 20, 2025

Don’t forget: Legend has it that rain on Easter means rain for another seven Sundays. Plan accordingly.

Rain for the next 7 Sundays??? pic.twitter.com/dYmHLfoLkj
— SharkFarmer (@sf28430) April 20, 2025

Your Next Read: No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

No, You Aren't Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 16:44:59 GMT

If you are tired of battling the wind this spring, you’re not alone. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports the windiest start to spring on record, and with wind gusts continuing to grip much of the country, it’s causing headaches for farmers trying to spray herbicide this spring.

“This is the windiest March into early April we’ve had in 50 years,” says Eric Snodgrass, who is Nutrien Ag Solutions’ Principal Atmospheric Scientist. “We’ve had such incredible strong winds, not just here in the Midwest, but also in the Southern Plains. We’ve seen some especially large dust storms at times coming out of Mexico, New Mexico and Texas.”

Snodgrass says it’s safe to say most Americans aren’t enjoying the wind, and that goes for farmers who are forced to change spraying plans due to the wind.

“We’ve had to stop for a couple of days, but it lays down just certain parts of the day and sometimes that’s in the middle of the night, and we’ll take off and spray in the middle of night,” says Bryant Hunter, who farms in Ogden, Iowa.

Just last week, winds were topping 30 mph, making it difficult to even see while planting, let alone getting in the fields to spray.

My spray list after 2 days of wind and 2.5” of rain. pic.twitter.com/aTuWEFcocf
— Eric Earl Mondhink (@emondhinkFH05) April 21, 2025

He says last year was just as challenging with the wind proving to be a constant battle.

“Last year was really hard to spray. We sprayed 3,000 acres in the dark last year,” Hunter says .

Is This a Longer Term Trend?

The bigger question is if it is just a windy start to spring, or if the wind is here for the remainder of the season. There is some good news there.

“Is this part of a longer term trend? Some of the longer term data would say no, but it certainly feels as though we’ve had several springs in a row that have been extremely active with the wind,” Snodgrass says.

There’s No Question; It’s Been a Windy Spring

The windiest start to spring is hitting some places especially hard. Take Michigan for example. Michigan had its windiest March on record. Nine other states had their second windiest.

There are some exceptions, however; northern South Dakota, southern Texas and southern Florida saw some reprieve from the wind.

Recorded wind gusts in Mrch

(Ben Noll, Meteorologist, The Washington Post)

The highest anomalies compared to historical average, shown in dark orange on the map, were 1.6 to 2.4 mph (1 to 1.5 m/s) above that historical average.

In addition, AccuWeather meteorologists found that almost every major city east of the Rockies ranked first or second for the highest average wind gusts for March.

AccuWeather reports Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Little Rock, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Chicago broke their previous average wind gust record for March by a significant margin of 1 mph or more. Indianapolis was the windiest of the windy cities, breaking the previous average wind gust record of 33.69 mph in 2022 by 1.51 mph with a reading of 35.20 mph.

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked severe #thunderstorms that tore across the central U.S.
Along with flooding rain, the storms produced several reported #tornadoes, as well as more than 100 reports of damaging wind gusts. #GOES19

What's your forecast today?… pic.twitter.com/k2cbBzb50x
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) April 21, 2025

But that’s not all. Washington, D.C., New York City, Raleigh, Miami, New Orleans, Amarillo, Dallas, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls were also ranked the No. 1 windiest March. Boston, Jackson and Corpus Christi were No. 2.

AccuWeather says records for these cities go back 77 to 97 years, typically when the airports were built.

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:45:23 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:36:01 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

Your next read: 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K

60% Drought Risk? The Latest Forecast For The 2025 Growing Season

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:28:06 GMT

Spring has officially sprung and that means heavy rains are on the way, specifically from eastern Texas into Ohio this week. Any fieldwork and planting will come to a halt, and Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass warns of significant flooding risk.

“We’ve got a swath of the country that could pick up anywhere between 5” to upward of 12” of rainfall,” he told “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “In the Ohio River and in the lower Mississippi River, there’s going to be a major flood trend.”

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s a chance for even higher totals in some areas.

“There are some indications we could see totals up in the 18" range likely across Arkansas on into parts of northwestern or northern Kentucky before this is all said and done,” Rippey told AgDay’s Michelle Rook.

Meteorologists have been warning of drought conditions for months now, so this type of weather system should have a positive impact, right? Wrong – Snodgrass explains this is the wrong time, wrong place.

“This is not a place where we’re missing out on moisture. This is the place we saw flood back in early March and even in parts of February,” he says.

The good news is snow is in the forecast for some areas in need of moisture, such as parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. But unfortunately, it likely won’t be enough.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” Snodgrass says. “When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%. Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coalmine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, it’s a bad sign.

“If in June we start to watch the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures drop, that’s actually symptomatic of the atmosphere losing momentum. And if it loses momentum, there’s nothing to keep the Bermuda high over Bermuda,” he says.

What It Means For Planting
With flooding in the East and drought in the West, Snodgrass plans to use the Mississippi River as his main moisture boundary this year.

“If you’re east of it, I think spring is super tight. If you’re west of it, we have got to return moisture to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska in order to beat back any sort of risk of drought going forward,” he says. “I really just think it’s West versus East this year on who’s got the favorable conditions early versus the risk in the middle of the season.

Taking a closer look at that outlook for a wet spring in the East, Snodgrass specifically says the month of April is shaping up to be one week on and then one week off.

“Right now, we’re week on with heavy rains. Next week, we get cooler and drier. Week three in April goes right back into an active pattern,” he explains. “What I want to know is if week four of April brings in cold conditions right after Easter. If that occurs, we just threw the brakes on any early planting hopes. Right now though, it appears that most of spring would favor tighter windows in the East.”

Despite the current outlook, a challenging spring and dry summer doesn’t mean game over.

“Any sort of problem we thought we saw will be gone in a heartbeat with good July rainfall. We are not settled. There’s a lot to understand and change with this pattern,” Snodgrass says. “Let’s say we do have drought, but you don’t have the heat stress. We can make a huge crop in drought conditions, so don’t forget that.”

Your Next Read: Planter Calibration Sets Up Your Season For High Corn Yields

Corn Acres Top 95 Million, But There's a Silver Lining in USDA's March Acreage Report

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:05:59 GMT

USDA’s first survey-based acreage report of the year confirmed one thing: U.S. farmers plan to plant considerably morn corn acres than they did in 2024. But even with corn acres coming in above 95 million, and nearly 1 million acres more than what the trade anticipated, the corn market seemed unfazed by the news.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report estimates U.S. farmers will plant:

95.3 million acres of corn, up 5% from 2024
83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4% from last year
45.4 million acres of wheat, down 2% from 2024
9.87 million acres of cotton in 2025, down 12%.

Total corn and soybean acres in the March report equal 178.8 million, which is up 1.1 million from a year ago.

The corn acreage came in above the average trade guess, which was 94.361 million, but the USDA survey results were below the soybean prereport estimates, which was 83.76 million acres. Why weren’t traders more surprised by USDA’s large acreage number for corn?

“I think it’s probably because there was also the expectation that no matter how high the number on corn plantings that it would be the smallest number of the year on corn plantings,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk” and Farm Journal’s economist. “So, the trade was leaning up on the corn number, but don’t rule out it having a negative impact by the end of the day.”

Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri , says even though 95.3 million is above the average trade guess, it’s not as high as what some expected.

“There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” says Brown. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week and new crop soybeans up 22 cents per bushel. If true, today’s planting intentions report would have been disappointing to them and trigger a reversal of last week’s movement. It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”

According to USDA’s report, total corn acreage is expected to be up 5%, with some of the biggest increases coming in the South.

Arkansas: Up 42%
Mississippi: Up 41%
Tennessee: Up 29%

“Iowa was the biggest amongst the I-States at over a half a million acres higher,” AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett told AgDay’s Michelle Rook . “That’s no surprise. As I’ve been in Iowa several times this winter. I’ve heard over and over that they’re going to be heavy corn growers have told me that personally that it just didn’t work for them to plant soybeans. Then, if you add up Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, you’re over 1.1 million acres of additional corn.”

Bennett says the entire Midwest is seeing higher corn acres in 2025, as well.

“I understand that profit margins are still raised or thin. It’s just that we all know that U.S. growers love to plant corn first of all, and second of all, with $10 cash beans for the bids for beans, t that was a big factor for a lot of these folks,” Bennett added in his interview with Rook.

Shift in Acreage and Potential Impact on Yield
If farmers want to search for something positive in USDA showing such a large number of acres being planted in corn this year, Flory says you don’t have to go far. And that’s the fact that some of the large acreage shifts are coming in the fringe acres, which could bring down the national average yield on corn.

“The movement of acres from cotton and spring wheat to corn should make it tough to get to the 181 bu. per acre for a national average corn yield that USDA currently has penciled in,” Flory says.

If you dig into the details of USDA’s acreage report, and look at where the acres went, the 2025 principal crops planted acreage number fell in the Plains, but corn acres actually increased in some of those states.

“We haven’t hit the USDA trend line yield the last seven years causing many to wonder if the trend has changed and drawing the ire of many producers, so, the 181 bu. per acre number is already under question,” says Brown. “However, where corn increases matters. Of states with an average yield over 181 bushels per acre, which is 14, 13 of them had an increase in corn acreage relative to 2024. One could thus then make the case- we have increase corn acreage in states with state wide yield averages better than 181 bu. per acre.”

Soybean Acres Slip

The pretrade estimates were wide for corn, ranging from above 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range was 82.5 million to 85.5 million. USDA’s actual report number came in at 83.5 million, which was only 1 million acres higher than the lowest trade estimate. So, why did the soybean market trend lower after the report? Flory says it’s the opposite of corn.

“There was an attitude that the bean number would be the biggest we see this year, so the trade was leaning down on the bean number,” Flory explains.

Biggest Surprises Out of USDA’s Reports
The fact that the March 31 reports included Prospective Plantings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) means the markets have a lot of information to digest. But what are the biggest surprises?

Here’s Flory’s list:

That the market surveys did a fantastic job of identifying the March 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks. Wheat stocks are a touch heavy but not enough to make a difference.
Also, USDA printed a cotton plantings number below 10 million. “I think that’s important, even if the market doesn’t — wow,” Flory says.
Spring wheat at 10 million seedings is a bullish number.

For Brown, the biggest surprise wasn’t in acreage; it was the fact the March Grain Stocks report didn’t produce any shocks to the market.

“Maybe it’s adrenaline- but I was surprised the stocks report was as accurate as it was as it can be full of surprises especially for corn,” says Brown “However, corn came in spot on and the smallest surprise in the corn quarterly stocks since I started tracking in 2018/2019. Beans and wheat were also relatively small surprises.”

Brown says the total prospective acreage number wasn’t really a surprise, but he does question if U.S. farmers will hit that total this year.

“I just don’t know if producers will break their necks to plant everything this year,” says Brown.

Brown also points out sorghum was able to increase acreage in 2025 vs 2024 by 265,000 acres.

“Sorghum prices have been relatively weak compared to corn- but it is dry in Kansas and that could incentivize people to plant more of crops that do better in dry conditions,” says Brown.

Your Next Read:
Where Did the Acreage Shifts Come From and What Does it Mean for Prices?

What USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates Would Shock the Market On Monday?

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 14:06:53 GMT

Anticipation has been building ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday, March 31. Not only is USDA releasing its first survey-based acreage report of the year, but it’s the week President Donald Trump is set to unleash reciprocal tariffs. Market analysts warn it could be an explosive week in the markets, and farmers should prepare.

Pre-report corn acreage estimates by Reuters range from north of 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range is 82.5 million to 85.5 million.

🇺🇸Analysts see 2025 U.S. #corn plantings at 94.36 million acres and #soybeans at 83.76 million.
▪️Larger-than-normal range of estimates on corn; 3 of 22 analysts above 95.0M
▪️-3.8% predicted drop in soy acres YOY, the largest drop analysts have predicted in March since 2007 pic.twitter.com/itlriMiDGv
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) March 25, 2025

USDA’s first glimpse at acreage, though it wasn’t survey-based, was during the Ag Outlook Forum in February. At that time, the agency’s corn estimate came in at 94 million acres, which caught the market by surprise. What would shock the market this time? That’s the question U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan had for market analysts this week.

“I think most people are thinking it’s going to be something closer to 95 [million],” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, told U.S. Farm Report. “If we printed a 96 number that would be a surprise and the market would have to probably trade lower. That’s the working numbers I’m going with as to what the market has already built into the current price of corn.”

As Mike North, Ever.Ag’s principal of risk management, has traveled the country he’s encountered producers embracing more corn.

“[For corn] to come out higher than what the USDA Ag Outlook Forum projected in February would not be a real shock to me. I think even in this last day you’re seeing it’s settling into what could be a larger number,” North says.

For soybeans, USDA projected 84 million acres in February, which was down 3.1 million acres from the previous year’s final estimate. Hackett thinks soybeans’ double digit price gains on Thursday was the market anticipating lower acres.

“I think that the market, if you’re looking at soybeans, has been pulling in. We started to get some upside Thursday,” he says. “I think the market is starting to get a little worried about a low number and maybe having to reprice the soybean market relative to corn to maybe get those numbers back into balance by the time we get to the June acreage report. There’s been very interesting action in soybeans the last few days and how it’s trading relative to corn and wheat.”

Ahead of Monday’s report, AgWeb compiled details of some of the private acreage estimates.

AgMarket.net Pegs Corn Acres North of 95 Million

Co-founder of AgMarket.net Matt Bennett explains their 45-person team surveyed growers for data.

The brokerage firm is pegging corn acres at 95.39 million.

“Every region, quite frankly, had higher corn acres,” Bennett says. “A couple of retailers in central Illinois said this is the biggest spring run they’ve had for corn-on-corn acres in a long time.”

Soybean acres in the AgMarket.net report sit at 82.75 million.

“Growers just keep telling us we can’t make money with sub $10 beans,” Bennett says.

All wheat acres total 47.82 million, according to the AgMarket.net report, despite spring wheat acres holding strong. The firm points to overall wheat profitability affecting acres.

The estimates from the brokerage and consulting group have been fast-developing as Bennett says pre-plant decisions are still evolving thanks to the weather and the markets.

“There were some [planting] changes made, two weeks ago, literally. I think some folks were putting on anhydrous and said, ‘This is going on like a dream, and then they looked up, saw their cash fall bid for soybeans at $9.70 and thought, I don’t want to do that, I want to do this,’” Bennett says.

Allendale Estimate Falls Below 94 Million Corn Acres

Allendale’s annual acreage survey results confirm higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.

Their survey shows corn planting intentions of 93.981 million acres, which would be up 3.4 million from 2024. Using 91.23% harvested and a 182.3 bu. per acre yield, production lands at a record 15.633 billion bushels, which is 767 million bushels more than 2024. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, says that raises corn ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels versus 1.54 billion bushels for this year.

Allendale tallies soybean planting intentions at 84.283 million acres. At 98.79% harvested and 52.7 bu. per acre, production totals 4.391 billion bushels, which is 24 million more than last year.

“On the corn side, there were no real surprises compared to what the trade is talking about,” Nelson says. “On the soybean side, which is about 2.8 million lower than last year, that’s maybe a little trimmer than some other people as far as what we happen to be hearing. The biggest question for ourselves in the survey was actually about the spring wheat numbers. Mind you, the Ag Outlook Forum numbers implied no drop in spring wheat for this year, but we’re seeing clear confirmations of some pretty good drops.”

Wheat acreage is estimated at 45.863 million acres, down 0.2 million from last year. Using 81.82% harvested and a 50.1 bu. per acre yield, production comes in at 1.879 billion bushels, which would be 92 million more than last year.

FBN Sees A Shift Away Soybean Acres

FBN’s survey included almost 1,000 responses from its farmer-member network. Cody Bills, director of U.S. Market Advisory & Brokerage at Farmer’s Business Network, says the company has done this report for five years with only a 1.3% error versus USDA’s numbers.

Compared with 2024 crop acres, FBN’s report shows corn acres up nearly 5 million acres in 2025 to 95.5 million acres.

“For corn, we are on the higher side of analysts’ expectations,” Bills says. “It’s a broad shift out of soybeans into corn — out of beans in Iowa, out of beans in Illinois and out of beans in Indiana.We also saw some notable shifts in North Dakota out of spring wheat into corn, and we saw some broad switching out of cotton into corn.”

The shift from soybeans leads to a 3.6 million acre dip comparing 2024 to prospective 2025 data.

“There’s uncertainty around the demand side of soybeans,” Bills says. “When you look at spring prices, when you think about crop insurance, corn is at $4.70, so 4¢ higher than last year. Soybeans are almost $1 lower. The ratio of bean prices to corn prices have slipped. The ratio of soybeans to corn is 2.2:1 this year compared to last year when we were 2.5:1.”

Adding up acres for corn and soybeans, FBN expects that total to be over 179 million.

“We saw some acres out of sorghum into corn. In general, we felt pretty comfortable being in line with the Ag Outlook Forum, which was somewhere around 178 and we’re sitting right around 179,” BIlls says.

Pro Farmer Expects Total Planted Acres to Jump 1 Million

Results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signal there will be a notable shift from soybeans to corn this year. Total corn and soybean plantings are projected at 178.8 million acres, which would be up 1.11 million acres (0.6%) from last year. Total acres planted to corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton are expected to be down roughly 1 million acres at 233.9 million.

“This year happens to be one of the years with some bigger movement, especially on the corn side,” says Brian Grete with ProFarmer.

Based on Pro Farmer’s analysis of survey responses, producers intend to plant 93.75 million acres of corn this year, up nearly 3.2 million acres (3.5%) from last year. Corn acres are expected to increase in all but one key state, South Dakota, with Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota acres to jump 4% or more and the cotton states signaling a 3.7% increase.

Producers indicate they intend to plant 85 million acres to soybeans this year, down 2.05 million acres (2.4%) from last year. Of the top nine soybean-producing states, six are projected to decrease plantings. Among states indicating a decline, soybean acres are projected to fall an average of 4%. The states noting higher plantings, which are South Dakota, Ohio and Minnesota in the Midwest, are expecting modest increases.

“About two-thirds of the corn acres that are gained are attributable to soybeans,” Grete says. “Every region except the Northern Plains is expected to see a decline in soybean acres.”

Part of that swing can be attributed to prevent plant acres coming back into production, not necessarily a switch from another crop, he adds. Declines in anticipated soybean acres in cotton states are the greatest at 3.9%.

Total wheat acres are projected at 45.4 million, down 680,000 acres (1.5%) from last year. Spring wheat seedings as a whole are expected to decline 590,000 acres (4.6%) to 12.1 million acres. The Pro Farmer survey shows Northern Plains producers will favor durum over other spring wheat. Other spring wheat acres are projected to decline, which is not overly surprising given current prices, Grete says. Contrary to USDA’s winter wheat seedings estimate in January, winter wheat acres are expected to be down modestly. Acres in historical winter wheat areas dropped while Midwest states signaled an uptick. Relatively longer growing seasons and favorable insurance regulations have encouraged Midwesterners to double crop wheat and soybeans.

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:14:24 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 20:25:11 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

Your Next Read: Ag Tech and Machinery Trends to Track for 2025

Double Trouble from Flooding and H5N1 hits Some Iowa Farms

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 13:17:15 GMT

Active flooding is still underway in parts of Iowa due to the more than 15 inches of rain that fell on parts of the state, particularly the northwest region, over the weekend, according to Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig.

“There were folks literally being rescued off of rooftops and flown out of the flooded areas,” Naig told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “After a couple of days, we will be able to come in and start to get a sense of what the enormity of what’s happened is and the size of the impact on the ag landscape.”

The devastation led to a disaster proclamation from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and the evacuation of thousands of Iowa residents from the area.

Naig said when he talked with Reynolds early Tuesday morning, she described the damage from the rains and flooding as “extensive.” The flooding is still underway, with rivers in north-central Iowa now starting to crest, according to the National Water Prediction Service.

Naig said state officials won’t have a full sense of the crop damage or number of livestock lost in the region until the flood waters recede.

“This was already a wet part of the state, where there were some challenges around planting and replanting. They’ve just been inundated with rain throughout the spring,” Naig said.

“What we’re hearing about, certainly, is damaged and destroyed equipment. There are livestock facilities that folks are having trouble getting feed to because of washed-out roads, and there are power outages and water outages. These are just some of the things that are really challenging.”

Added Stress On Dairies
For dairy producers in northwest Iowa, the floods arrived on top of challenges they already faced from dealing with cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) or efforts to prevent the occurrence of the disease.

“Unfortunately, a lot of our cases are in dairies up in that area,” Naig said. “Think of the added stress that those folks are experiencing right now.”

Naig said, in total, Iowa has confirmed 11 dairies and three poultry sites where H5N1 has been found.

“Don’t be surprised if you continue to hear about some additional cases in the state of Iowa, because here’s the point – we’re looking for it,” Naig said. “Our farmers are testing. Turns out, when you look for it, you can find it. I think this is a little wider spread than maybe what is just being confirmed.”

Naig said he commends the Iowa dairy industry for being proactive in reporting any positive cases. When cases are confirmed, he said the state can bring in a USDA epidemiological strike team to look for clues to how H5N1 is being transmitted.

“If we’re going to experience the pain of having positive cases, let’s learn as much as we can, so that we can craft biosecurity strategies to address those things that are found to be the cause of transmission,” he said.

Wide Range Of Symptoms And Outcomes
Naig added that the scope of H5N1 infections has varied between farms as well as in individual animals.

“I think maybe early on, folks said, ‘Oh, it’s really just a kind of a minimal milk production loss, and then everything gets back to normal.’ I don’t think it’s quite that way,” he said. “Some (producers) aren’t seeing clinical signs while others see acute infections and significant milk losses. We are also hearing about some cattle mortality, though it’s maybe because of a secondary infection or condition that actually causes that mortality.”

Naig told Flory he has asked USDA to provide compensation for animals that Iowa producers have had to cull or where death occurred.

“We continue to make that request because we are seeing some losses, but that’s still a work in progress,” he said. “And, of course, again, we’re trying to get research on the ground to determine how H5N1 is behaving. The other thing is we can’t treat this as a dairy disease. It is a dairy and a poultry issue. We’ve got to think about the larger livestock industry. That’s how we’re approaching it here.”

The conversation between Naig and Flory is available in its entirety below:

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:23:00 GMT

This week’s USDA crop progress report shows conditions continuing to decline for corn and soybeans. For corn, 69% is in good to excellent condition (down 3% from last week). The total soybean crop in good to excellent condition is also down 3% - from 70% last week to 67% this week.

And while some growers have severe drought to blame, others can point to extreme flooding.

This June has held two different extremes--

💧One of the wettest on record for the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains

☀️While being one of the driest on record for the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic

👉The rest of the month? More rain for the Upper Midwest while drier than normal… pic.twitter.com/aWVZ1o5gsB
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) June 23, 2024

In Iowa, growers might need to grab a life jacket before going to check their fields.

Abby and I went out and scouted a little bit of corn this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/yBBLsAjFkp
— Pete Crew. (Not the sharpest knife in the drawer). (@pete_90210) June 23, 2024

Last year we had 5.5" rain during growing season and this farm averaged 240 bu. This year 16" so far in May/June. pic.twitter.com/wOsGJsH4hm
— Living the dream (@NeIowaFarmer) June 22, 2024

Rock Valley, IA Flooding today. What a trainwreck pic.twitter.com/rumOfxyslQ
— Chris VB🐷🐖🌾🚤⛳ (@chrsvnbk) June 22, 2024

South Dakota farmers are having a similar experience - with this operation reporting 10" of rain in one day.

Water running into lake, yes my folks have house here! My farm is completely engulfed, can’t get within 15 miles. Animals safe, daughter safe we appreciate all of the kindness. Stay safe ❤️ pic.twitter.com/NvVMjqXDas
— ChelLewis (@LewisEQAcademy) June 24, 2024

The Oklahoma Pork Council has even started work to help those affected by the flood.

We are working to support our friends in the panhandle with food and other assistance as they recover from severe flash flooding. If you know of a direct need that our alliance of great community members can help meet, please give us a call or email us at kdeniz@okpork.org. pic.twitter.com/KT0meG0k5H
— Oklahoma Pork (@Okpork) June 19, 2024

But it seems the rain is only falling in one part of the country as farmers further east are hoping the skies open up soon.

Somewhere between the flood and us

It is just right pic.twitter.com/jUvV2wWBTY
— Stephen Ellis 190/58 (@sellis_1994) June 22, 2024

Hot Weather and Recent Dryness Create Favorable Conditions for Rapid Drought Development. https://t.co/UMw8lZcKJV pic.twitter.com/Unqb9Al6oa
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) June 24, 2024

Click here to let us know how your crops are progressing.

How Important Are This Year's Planting Delays?

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 20:53:25 GMT

Farmers aren’t quick to take rain for granted, but the weather this spring has continued to test their patience. As multiple weeks of significant rainfall pushes planting progress far behind last year’s pace , Scott Irwin, professor at the University of Illinois, says these delays may not affect corn yields as much as you think.

Irwin explains corn’s optimal planting window is between April 20 to May 15 in the corn belt, and after that a decrease in yield should be expected.

“I’ve developed some models to estimate that penalty,” he shared on an episode of the Top Producer podcast. “Based on national planting progress statistics, I find that for each percentage of the U.S. corn crop planted after May 20, yield goes down by about 0.35 bushels.”

On average, he says about 20% of corn is planted after the optimal window. However, this year’s USDA planting progress report on May 19 showed 30% had yet to be put in the ground.

“My personal trend yield forecast for the U.S. corn crop this year is 182.1 bushels per acre,” Irwin says. “You’d probably want to drop that by two to three bushels per acre right now because of above-normal late planting.”

While losing that yield isn’t ideal, rain delays during planting likely won’t be the biggest weather event to impact this year’s crop.

“There’s definitely a pecking order in terms of the most important yield influencing factors for corn production here in the U.S.,” Irwin says. “There’s what I call the golden number for Illinois agriculture and that golden number is four – four inches of rain during July. That’s the No. 1 most important factor for corn yields year in and year out.”

Irwin explains his golden number can swing corn yields by 20 to 30 bushels compared to four or five bushels from late planting.

To hear more from Irwin, including his best advice for commodity marketing, listen to this episode of the Top Producer podcast.

Corn and Soybean Planting Progress Rounds Third And Heads for Home

Tue, 28 May 2024 21:38:15 GMT

Farmers have made admirable planting progress over the last week, despite several severe weather and tornado outbreaks last week across the heartland.

You can check out the latest weekly planting progress report every Monday from USDA for yourself here.

Corn farmers are surging ahead, with 10 of 18 states currently 80% planted or better as of May 26. At opposite ends of the field, you have North Carolina first across the finish line (100% planted) while Pennsylvania farmers sit just above half planted (53% - 13 points behind the state’s five-year average). Farmers in Michigan made huge gains over the week, adding 25 percentage points of corn planting progress to eclipse 75% total.

Soybean farmers, having a bit more wiggle room with a shorter to maturity crop than their corn growing brethren, are watching weather reports and still playing things a bit close to the vest.

Michigan (24% gained), Minnesota (21%) and North (21%) and South Dakota (19%) added the most soybean planting progress over the last week. Only two states – Iowa and Nebraska – remain behind the five-year average for soybean acreage planted. Meanwhile, Mississippi still leads the pack with 92% of its soybean acres planted and ready to go.

RELATED: It Won’t Quit Raining, And Farmers Are Growing Frustrated With How Quickly Planting Progress Has Stalled

#plant24 Updates from X

Kansas farmer Matt Long @LongRBEINC says that’s a wrap:

And that’s a wrap on #plant24! pic.twitter.com/gNEsyxfka7
— Matt Long (@LongRBEINC) May 28, 2024

Ontario Farmer Claire Horan @clairehoran shows off some nicely emerged soybeans:

Cranberry Beans at VC stage. Unrolled cotyledons and unifoliate leaves. Keep on growing! 😁👍🏻 #plant24 #Ontag pic.twitter.com/cT2VR0TC6M
— Claire Horan (@agclairehoran) May 28, 2024

@Redwards40 gettin’ it done AND helpin’ out the neighbors, what a guy:

Last pass! So long #plant24 now off to do some seeding for a neighbor. pic.twitter.com/Z0t4dOcRm5
— Ryan Edwards (@Redwards40) May 28, 2024

Firing up the pivots on the Western Plains with @Goldendeefarms:

New boots for the corner arm pivot
I'm tired of pulling it out when it gets stuck tucked in

We put on 18.4-34 tractor tires instead of the 14.9-24, Skipped the 11-38

Time to start #irrigate24 & find out how they work#plant24 #Irrigation #Saskatchewan #westcdnag #skag #tires pic.twitter.com/fU8mDSNu1i
— Anthony Eliason (@Goldendeefarms) May 28, 2024

It's Scary Dry in the Western Corn Belt, But a Drastically Different Story in the East This Year

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 21:21:07 GMT

The U.S. drought picture has drastically changed over the past six months, but dry conditions continue to grip the western Corn Belt. Meteorologists say there’s a stark difference in planting conditions in the west versus the east this year.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows after an El Nino winter and active early spring weather pattern, drought coverage is now at its lowest level since spring of 2020. In early April, more moisture fell across the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. A strengthening low-pressure system and trailing cold front brought 6" to 18" of snow across the Upper Midwest and northern New England. Rain also saturated soils to the south.

(Farm Journal)

Planting progress numbers for corn are starting to roll in, but USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s another crop to watch that might be a better indicator of planting progress this spring.

“I think oat planting is actually a pretty good surrogate for how fieldwork is actually going in the Midwest this time of year,” Rippey says. “You’ll notice an interesting trend on the oat planting chart — in the western part of the Corn Belt, look how fast the crop is going in.”

USDA’s second Crop Progress of the year last week showed oat planting in Iowa is 20 points ahead of normal. South Dakota is 12 points quicker than the average pace. Both are signs that dry weather is creating a rapid planting pace.

(Farm Journal)

“If you look at the numbers for Iowa and Nebraska, you’ll see almost one-third of the intended oat acreage has been planted by April 7. That’s way ahead of normal,” Rippey explains. “We see planting already taking place in South Dakota, Minnesota and even Wisconsin. Those numbers are pretty unusual for this time of year, so that indicates underlying dryness still exists in parts of the Upper Midwest, the western Corn Belt region and, of course, extending back to the Great Plains.”

In contrast, once you get east of the Mississippi River, oat planting is behind average. The planting pace in Pennsylvania was 8 points behind average last week, and that was before more rain fell across the eastern half of the country last week.

“We’ve effectively sharpened that gradient, and we’ll see those delays in the eastern Corn Belt starting to multiply. For the most part, it’s going to be planters rolling in the Upper Midwest and the Great Plains, as we have seen a deficit of rainfall the past several weeks.”

Topsoil Moisture Map Shows Severe Dryness

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says it’s also a good idea to monitor USDA’s topsoil moisture map. The topsoil moisture in New Mexico is considered nearly 80% short to very short. In Kansas, nearly 60% of the top soil moisture falls in that category as well.

If you then look at areas considered to be in surplus, all of the Northeast and parts of the eastern Corn Belt have too much moisture.

(Farm Journal)

“The big storm a couple weeks ago, bringing that big stripe of moisture across the Midwest, pushed topsoil moisture numbers to 68% surplus in Ohio, 35% in Indiana,” Rippey says.

Dry Conditions Aid Rapid Planting Pace

For areas experiencing drier conditions, planting is clipping along at an impressive pace.

“Of course that is great for keeping the planter going, but we do need moisture for winter wheat and soon for those recently planted summer crops,” Rippey says.

Farmers across the western Corn Belt are deeply concerned about just how dry it is. As dust flies this spring, some farmers even argue the Drought Monitor doesn’t accurately portray the picture, as soil is starved for moisture this year.

“There are people out there who are saying, ‘Man, we’ve not recovered what we’ve lost incrementally over the past four years.’ Until we start to see some major moisture recovery deep down in our soil, we’re going to have that concern,” says Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Last fall, Snodgrass says 40% of the lower 48 states were experiencing some form of drought. That number has been cut in half. While the recent moisture helped alleviate some concerns in Wisconsin and Minnesota, he says there are other areas, such as Missouri and Nebraska, that are still extremely dry.

Brutal Blast of Cold Set to Bring Widespread Freeze to the Western Corn Belt and Plains

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 18:43:48 GMT

Meteorologists say much of the country should brace for freezing temperatures this weekend and into early next week. The late April blast of cold weather doesn’t pose a big risk for the corn already planted in fields, but there are growing concerns about the potential damage to winter wheat.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the freezing temperatures could drop as far south as Texas.

“We are going to be watching at the end of this week on into next week some cold air that’s been kind of pulled up over Alaska in western North America swinging southward,” says Rippey. “And by the time we get to this weekend and on into early next week, we can easily see sub-freezing temperatures all the way down into north Texas. So, that means everybody north of that, including the northwestern half of Oklahoma, much of Kansas, all those areas should experience freezes.”

Friday night expected Kansas freezing temps. 22-27F West. 30-35F C and E. pic.twitter.com/p7M3yKjIxp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Rippey points out winter wheat is already heading in some of those geographies, including southern Oklahoma and parts of Texas.

“So, that is a concern where you overlap some freezing temperatures and heading winter wheat, with the part of the crop that’s even still viable, could be harmed by sub-freezing temperatures over the next few days,” says Rippey. “And unfortunately, that pattern seems like it’s going to continue. Although I think in time as we head into late April and early May, some of that colder air may spill more into the Midwest than the Great Plains. But this initial shot will deliver freezes likely as far south as at least the northern panhandle of Texas.

Rippey says he’s not as concerned about the corn crop that’s already planted since the crop either hasn’t emerged or the crop is still young enough that the growing point is below the soil.

“I think soils are warm enough to help insulate that growing point at this early stage. And as you move to the far north where it’s going to be really cold, we don’t have any corn planted yet. So I think we’ll be okay with the summer crops at this early stage,” says Rippey.

Western Belt freezing temps Friday night. pic.twitter.com/mlVKk4LYNp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Drew Lerner of World Weather has been keeping an eye on this weather pattern for more than a week. He originally warned about the possibility for a crop-damaging freeze late last week, but also said it was too early to see just how widespread the cold would be.

His latest forecast is colder than NOAA’s, but he points out crops may not be far enough along in potential problem areas.

“NOAA’s map is too warm, though, frost and freezes will occur southward into northern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and parts of Kentucky with Saturday’s coolest in the central Plains and Sunday’s and Monday’s coolest in the Midwest and middle Atlantic Coast States respectively,” says Lerner.

“Wheat, rye and oats are heading in the south of Oklahoma while canola is flowering. We are not expecting much more than frost in those areas, but it might be an area to watch. Most of the wheat in the lower Midwest is not far enough advanced to be impacted in a permanent negative manner,” says Lerner.

For the week ending April 16, 2023, there were 6.1 days
suitable for fieldwork, according to @USDA_NASS Winter wheat condition rated 60% very poor to poor, 26% fair, 14% good to excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 27%, behind 32% last year and 35% for the five-year average. pic.twitter.com/KkW31zYOdL
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) April 18, 2023

Winter wheat conditions are already in historically poor condition. Kansas’ crop is rated 60% poor to very poor, Oklahoma has 53% of the crop in the worst two categories and the Texas winter wheat crop is rated 52% poor to very poor.

“If you look at U.S. winter wheat conditions as a whole, as of April 16, we are seeing our lowest overall U.S. winter wheat conditions since the spring of 1996, and it’s really driven by these really abysmal numbers across the Central and Southern Great Plains,” says Rippey. “Right up and down the Central and Southern Great Plains everywhere, it’s almost every day that passes here, we’re losing more of this crop. Some of it never emerged. Some of it’s incredibly poorly established. And each passing day now in April, as the warmth, the wind and the dryness continue, we’re seeing lowering of those yield prospects and expectations for higher abandonment.”

From the dry weather and intense winds, to now the frigid air that could hit the crop into the weekend, winter wheat conditions continue to see weather challenges this year.

First Thing Today: Hot, Dry Forecast for Spring Wheat Country

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 07:45:15 GMT

Firmer tone ahead of reports... Grain traders are favoring the upside as they prepare for the onslaught of USDA data today. Corn and soybean futures are both mostly 3 to 4 cents higher. Wheat futures are up 12 to 16 cents, with the HRS market again leading the charge. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly, as are crude oil futures.

All eyes on USDA... USDA’s much-anticipated Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports arrive at 11:00 a.m. CT today. Traders expect USDA to report corn plantings fell slightly while soybean plantings climbed a bit from March intentions to 89.903 million acres and 89.750 million acres, respectively. All wheat plantings are expected to come in around 46.070 million acres, up marginally from March. Cotton acres are also expected to climb slightly to 12.233 million acres. June 1 corn and soybean stocks are expected to come in at their third highest level on record at 5.123 billion bu. and 983 million bu., respectively. Quarterly wheat stocks are expected to come in around 1.137 billion bu., Their highest level since 1988.

Hot, dry forecast for spring wheat country... The National Weather Service forecast for July 5-9 calls for heat across the country, with western areas of the Northern Plains expected to see some of the highest temps. Adding to worries, NWS also anticipates the weather will be dry for the Northern Plains and into Minnesota, as well as in Texas. This is concerning for an already-battered spring wheat crop that will be in its key grain filling stage, as well as for the corn crop that will be nearing pollination. Above-normal precip is likely for southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt.

Heat wave pulls French wheat crop ratings lower... As expected, French soft wheat crop ratings fell the week ended June 26 as a heat wave took a toll on the crop. FranceAgriMer lowered the amount of soft wheat rated good to excellent by 3 percentage points to 65%, which is equal to year-ago at this point. The hot, dry conditions have also accelerated crop development, leading to an early start to harvest. Four percent of the crop was harvested as of Monday, the French farm office reports. The recent heatwave also prompted the European Commission to lower its estimate of common wheat usable production (excluding durum) by 2.4 MMT to 138.9 MMT.

Conaway reaches deal on ag budget cuts... House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) late Thursday said he reached agreement with the Budget Committee on a cut to food stamp spending. “As far as Ag Committee and Budget, we’re done,” he said. Conaway did not provide details of his agreement but said he agreed to specific cuts the House ag panel would have to abide by in the fiscal 2018 budget. He indicated that the cut would be small enough to make it politically feasible to move forward later this year with developing a new farm bill. Conaway also said he still plans to act on a farm bill through regular order late this year or early in 2018.

New CBO baseline signals 2018 farm bill spending levels... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Thursday released an updated 10-year baseline of federal revenue and spending that includes projected costs of mandatory farm and nutrition programs. CBO estimates spending on agriculture will amount to $137 billion between fiscal 2018 and 2027, while the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamps) will cost $679 billion over the same decade. The shifts in the baseline put even more pressure on farm-state lawmakers to determine how to divvy up what appears to be a smaller pie. Get more details .

Trade talks between the U.K. and U.S. ahead... The U.K. and U.S. will begin “actual discussions” over a post-Brexit trade agreement on July 24, U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox told BBC TV’s Question Time. Britain cannot formally sign trade deals with other countries until it leaves the EU in March 2019, but it can lay the groundwork for them so they can be ratified soon after.

Uptick in Chinese manufacturing for June... China’s manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in June, as the world’s second-largest economy continues to confound expectations for a slowdown. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.7, compared to a reading of 51.2 in May. Investors also digested economic data out of Japan, but local equities sold off following the fall in tech stocks overnight.

U.S. and Mexico expected to officially sign a deal on sugar trade as soon as today... The suspension trade agreement reduces the amount of refined sugar Mexico can export to the U.S. The deal will be implemented on Oct. 1 for the start of the 2018 fiscal year. President Donald Trump commented on the deal on Thursday, saying it “is a very good one for both Mexico and the U.S.” Officials with both the Corn Refiners Association and the American Sugar Alliance agree.

Perdue in China to mark return of U.S. beef... USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue is in China to mark the official return of U.S. beef to the Asian nation. He’ll meet with China’s Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang. Perdue also will join U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad and cut prime rib from Nebraska to celebrate the move. China has rapidly become a major importer of beef. USDA said the first shipment of U.S. beef arrived in China on June 19. Han told Perdue and Branstad that agriculture deals between China and the U.S. would improve the well-being of the two peoples, and would aid in particular the farm industry of the U.S.

Ranchers in Brazil say a FMD vaccination overhaul is needed... Cattle ranchers in Brazil are pushing for an overhaul of the country’s vaccination program against Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), which was one of the issues that led to the U.S. banning imports of fresh beef from the country. CNPC, a national council of cattle ranchers, asked the government to cut doses in half, change the location where the vaccine is administered from the muscle to just under the skin and to remove a substance called saponin from the vaccine. The group also believes the mandatory, twice annual vaccination should be eliminated in 12 states that have not reported a case of FMD in 20 years.

More lower cash cattle trade... Cash cattle trade picked up between $118 and $120 across the Plains yesterday, which was down from week-ago, as expected. The June contract that expires at noon today is trading in line with the upper end of this week’s action, while the August contract holds around a $1.50 discount to the low end of that range.

Neutral H&P Report... Yesterday’s Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report show the U.S. hog herd stands at a record-level, but that was not surprising. All Hogs & Pigs, Kept for Breeding and Kept for Marketing all came in basically in line with expectations. This means traders will likely quickly shift their attention back to the cash hog market and whether it is working on a top. Yesterday, cash bids strengthened across much of Midwest, with the exception of the eastern Corn Belt.

Overnight demand news... Jordan bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat from optional origins. It also issued a new tender to buy 100,000 MT of feed barley from optional origins.

Today’s reports:

11:00 a.m., Acreage -- ERS
11:00 a.m., Grain Stocks -- ERS
2:00 p.m., International Food Security Assessment -- ERS