Poultry - General

China, U.S., and Brazil Lead Global Feed Surge Amid Regional Shifts

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 19:46:38 GMT

A newly released global feed survey estimates world feed production increased in 2025 by 2.9% to 1.44 billion metric tons.

In the 2026 Agri-Food Outlook released by Alltech , data shows most regions and sectors experienced growth.

“The numbers suggest a strong recovery phase for animal agriculture; but the data show that growth was uneven, increasingly regionalized and driven less by herd expansion than by structural change, productivity gains and shifts in how production is measured and recorded,” Alltech reports.

In North America, operational efficiency gains, sustainability pressures, formulation optimization and consolidation among feed mills continue to reshape the feed industry across the region. Feed tonnage contracted modestly, primarily due to a historically tight cattle cycle and declining beef herd dynamics. Alltech says the region still saw some selective, species-driven momentum, with growth concentrated in broilers and dairy. While pork feed stabilized, the egg and turkey sectors remained in recovery following health-related disruptions.

The survey collected data from 142 countries and 38,837 feed mills in late 2025. By analyzing compound feed production and prices, the survey provides a comprehensive snapshot of global feed production. Alltech says these insights serve as a barometer for the overall livestock industry, highlighting key trends across species, along with regional challenges and opportunities for growth.

Top 10 Feed-Producing Countries

The top 10 feed-producing countries produced 65.2% of the world’s feed in 2025. The survey also showed 47.7% of all global feed tonnage was produced in the top three countries: China, U.S. and Brazil.

Global Feed Volume by Species

More Regional Results

Asia: 559.297 million mt

Asia reigns as the global center of feed production, with growth via industrialization and price-conscious consumers increasing the demand for poultry and aquaculture in 2025. The survey shows continued shifts from on-farm mixing to commercial feed, especially in China. In addition, Southeast Asia experienced a recovery of the sow herd which lifted pork output. Poultry feed tonnage also remained strong.

Europe: 274.061 million mt

Europe’s feed sector in 2025 was differentiated, yet broadly resilient, growing by 1.0%, Alltech notes. Lower raw material prices, supported by large global harvests of soybeans, rapeseed, wheat and maize, improved margins and stimulated production in several key markets. The region stabilized overall even with ongoing disease pressure and regulatory constraints. Modest gains in dairy and broilers offset challenges in other segments.

Latin America: 204.446 million mt

Latin America solidified its position as the world’s premier “protein basket” in 2025. Compound feed demand expanded 2.8% year over year, rising by 5.536 million mt, supported by strong export markets and lower grain prices. Growth was broad-based across the poultry, pork and aquaculture sectors. However, local disruptions in parts of the Andean and Caribbean sub-regions tempered overall expansion.

Africa and the Middle East: 102.549 million mt

Africa expanded strongly (+11.5%) on commercialization and rising compound feed penetration as the Middle East entered a structural plateau (+1.1%). Across both sub-regions, Alltech says three forces shaped performance: protein affordability, input vulnerability driven by grain prices and currency volatility, and continued disease disruptions — particularly related to foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza.

Oceania: 11.104 million mt

Oceania experienced broad-based gains last year, with an overall 3.4% increase supported by population growth, resilient livestock sectors and strong export demand. Absolute increases were at their strongest in the broiler, layer, beef and pig sectors, the report says. High feedlot numbers and elevated cattle inventories sustained record beef production, particularly in Australia (+11%), with more moderate growth in New Zealand (+1.6%). Recovery in layer feeds following an avian influenza outbreak, along with steady demand for chicken and pork, led to a balanced regional expansion.

FAQs

Q: What was the total world feed production in 2025?
A: 1.44 billion metric tons.

Q: Why did U.S. feed production decrease?
A: Production fell by 0.8% due to a tight cattle cycle and declining beef herd dynamics.

Q. Which countries are the top producers of animal feed?
A. The top three feed-producing countries are China (330.06 million mt), the United States (267.38 million mt), and Brazil (89.90 million mt). Together, they account for 47.7% of the world’s total feed tonnage.

Q. Which livestock species saw the highest growth in feed demand?
A. Aquaculture experienced the highest growth rate at 4.7%, followed closely by the broiler sector at 3.7%.

Q. What is driving the growth in the global feed industry?
A. According to Alltech, growth is being driven by structural changes, productivity gains, and shifts in production measurement rather than simple herd expansion.

Q. Which global region had the highest percentage of growth in feed production?
A. Africa saw the most significant growth at 11.5%, fueled by increased commercialization and the rising use of compound feed.

The compound feed production totals and prices reported in the 2026 Alltech Agri-Food Outlook were collected in the first quarter of 2026 with assistance from feed mills and industry and government entities around the world. These figures are estimates and are intended to serve as an informative resource for industry stakeholders. To access more data and insights, visit alltech.com/agri-food-outlook .

The Shrinking Slice: Farmers Receive Less Than 6 Cents of Every Food Dollar

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:45:07 GMT

For the past two years, USDA has estimated farmers and ranchers received less than 6 cents of every food dollar. In 2023, that was 5.9 cents, and using the latest data from 2024, it’s 5.8 cents.

“Our oldest data point right now is 2007 [USDA updated the data series] and that’s 14.7 cents per dollar, and now we’re down all the way to 11.8 cents per dollar,” says Faith Parum, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “So we’ve really seen that decline year after year. It reflects how much of the value of things in the grocery store or when you go out to eat is going to other parts of the supply chain and not necessarily to farmers and ranchers.”

Livestock vs. Crops: A Widening Gap

The aggregate decline masks a widening gap between sectors. While the overall farmer share is down, livestock and crop producers are seeing divergent trends:

Crop Farmers: Share dropped from 2.9 cents to 2.5 cents (a 2.5% year-over-year decrease).
Livestock Producers: Share increased from 3 cents to 3.3 cents.

“Overall, the farmer share is down. But we have those two markets really at odds,” Parum says. “We’ve seen that tale of two farm economies where our livestock producers maybe have seen a little bit of better days than they had had in the past, while our row crop farmers and our specialty crop farmers are really facing strong headwinds in the market.”

Effect at the Farm Gate

As highlighted by USDA, farm finances are quickly strained when farmers/ranchers are capturing a small percentage of the food dollar and even modest swings in commodity prices and/or input prices take place.

Parum adds, “when we talk about the health of our farms and the health of future generations on the farm, and being economically viable and sustainable and being able to keep their operations open, the trends we’re seeing right now are really hard for those farmers. Our ranchers are seeing a little bit of better days right now with high beef prices, but that’s not going to last forever, and with production expenses continuing to increase, we’re really going to see that that question come up of, what is sustainable if, if these dollars we’re spending in the grocery store aren’t making it back to our farmers.”

Where Does the Money Get Distributed?

The key takeaway: farmers produce the raw commodities that make food production, however, the price is clearly more determined by what happens after the products first leave the farm.

The USDA Food Dollar Series tracks how each dollar is spent by consumers and then divides it across the industries contributing to the value in the supply chain, such as farming, food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retail and food service. As noted by the USDA, with each step in the process, the additional services, labor, transportation and infrastructure add value and increase costs to the final food product.

USDA’s Economic Research Service Food Dollar Series shows in 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, the remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the ‘marketing bill’, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing and food service. Over time, this shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farm production itself.

Groceries Leave the Most on The Table For Farmers

Farmers’ share of consumer food spending varies widely depending on the type of food purchased. For example, the farm share of the food-at-home dollar was 18.5 cents in 2024, up slightly from 18.4 cents in 2023. But even in this category it means only than one-fifth of what consumers spend on groceries goes back to farmers.

As you may expect, products with minimal processing, require less of the value to be retained in that part of the food system, and therefore return a larger share of the food dollar to producers.

“The highest commodity that gets the most of that food dollar is fresh eggs,” Parum notes. “That’s just because there’s limited labor to process that food.”

Examples include:

Fresh Eggs: 69.1 cents (+6% from 2023)
Beef: 52.2 cents (+4.8%)
Fresh Milk: 50.8 cents (+5.6%)
Pork: 23.7 cents (+7.2%)
Poultry (+3.1%)
Fish (+2.8%)
Tree nuts and peanuts (-1.7%)
Fresh fruits and vegetables (unchanged)
Bakery Products: 4.8 cents (-9.4%)
Soft Drinks/Bottled Water: 1.3 cents (-7.1%)

Global Feed Production Rebounds, Says Alltech in Agri-Food Outlook

Tue, 13 May 2025 16:06:03 GMT

Global feed production rebounded in 2024 after a stagnant 2023, increasing 1.2% from 1.380 billion metric tons (mt) to 1.396 billion mt. This growth, achieved despite challenges that included highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), climate fluctuations and economic uncertainty, underscores the resilience and adaptability of the international agriculture industry, Alltech reports in the 2025 Agri-Food Outlook.

The annual report includes the results of the company’s 14th annual global feed production survey with data collected from 142 countries and 28,235 feed mills in 2024. Through an analysis of compound feed production and prices, the survey provides a comprehensive snapshot of global feed production.

Alltech says these insights serve as a barometer for the overall livestock industry, highlighting key trends across species, regional challenges and opportunities for growth.

Top 10 Countries
The Top 10 feed-producing countries in 2024 produced 65.6% of the world’s feed, with 52% of global feed production concentrated in only four countries (China, U.S., Brazil, India).

The Top 10 include:
1. China: 315.030 million mt of feed, down 2.03% from 2023
2. U.S.: 269.620 million mt; up 0.68%
3. Brazil: 86.636 million mt; up 2.43%
4. India: 55.243 million mt; up 4.56%
5. Mexico: 41.401 million mt; up 1.38%
6. Russia: 38.481 million mt; up 8.53%
7. Spain: 35.972 million mt; up 1.46%
8. Vietnam: 25.850 million mt; up 3.41%
9. Türkiye: 24.502 million mt; up 4.83%
10. Japan: 24.297 million mt; up 0.14%

Species Highlights
Poultry feed experienced an increase in production, both for broilers (up 1.8%) and layers (up 1.4%). Broiler feed is the largest species segment, accounting for 27.6% of the total feed tonnage in the world.

“As a ‘budget-friendly’ protein option, the broiler industry benefits from surges in red meat prices,” the authors of the report share. “Affordability drove demand in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, while rising incomes boosted growth in Africa.”

Although HPAI was a persistent issue for poultry production, broiler feed volumes are expected to continue seeing moderate growth in 2025 because of broiler meat’s affordability and export opportunities, the report says.

The slow 1.4% growth rate of layers reflected the challenges facing the industry, including the disruptions by avian influenza and oversupply in some regions, Alltech points out.

Global pig feed production experienced a loss in 2024 of 0.6%, leading to a decreased total of 369.293 million mt, the report notes. Growth in the European, Latin American and North American pork segments was counterbalanced by downturns in Africa and the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Oceania.

“These trends were partly dictated by how well producers in each region continued to recover from outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), with export demand allowing Europe and Latin America to reclaim lost ground,” the authors explain. “Survey respondents were divided in their outlook for pig feed production, which recorded the highest amount of pessimism among all feed segments.”

The report adds that disease management and stabilized feed costs will continue to be critical for the pig feed sector to achieve growth throughout the world.

Dairy feed tonnage increased by 3.2%, to 165.500 million mt. Analysts attribute this to robust consumer demand, favorable milk prices and a shift toward more intensive farming practices, with Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa and Latin America all displaying growth.

“While dairy feed production remained stable in North America, Oceania’s reliance on abundant pasture led to a slight dip in its feed tonnage,” the authors say. “Despite challenges that ranged from disease pressures to volatile weather conditions, the global dairy sector continues to exhibit strong resilience and growth potential. The modernization and intensification of production and higher milk yields are expected to foster further increases — but lower farmgate prices in China could limit global gains overall.”

Beef feed tonnage rose from 131.6 million mt in 2023 to 134.1 million mt in 2024. Alltech says this reflects a global increase of 1.8%. North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe and Oceania all recorded gains thanks to a rise in demand for beef exports due to tight supply elsewhere around the world.

“Scarce forages in parts of North America, Latin America and Australia drove cattle producers to rely more heavily on commercial feeds. The decline in beef feed tonnage seen in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East was attributed to oversupply and lower prices,” the report says.

Access more data and insights from the 2025 Alltech Agri-Food Outlook here.

Editor’s Note: The compound feed production totals and prices reported in the 2025 Alltech Agri-Food Outlook were collected in the first quarter of 2025 with assistance from feed mills and industry and government entities around the world. These figures are estimates and are intended to serve as an informative resource for industry stakeholders.

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More Funding Going to Tackle HPAI H5N1, Egg Imports are Now Underway to Stabilize Supply

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 20:35:10 GMT

On Thursday morning, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins gave an update on progress the Trump administration is making on the five-prong strategy it unveiled Feb. 26 to combat avian influenza virus type A (H5N1).

Speaking to industry stakeholders, media and offices of elected officials, Rollins focused on the administration’s work to lower egg prices and improve supply, while also emphasizing the importance of biosecurity in protecting U.S. poultry flocks from the virus.

Regarding egg prices, she said wholesale prices are down nearly 50% from their peak in late February from $8.53 then to $4.08 currently.

However, Rollins said she realizes that wholesale prices don’t automatically show up as reductions in retail prices.

“I know for some of us who are shopping that we’ve seen egg prices drop immediately, which has been true for me. But then we’ll hear from people in other parts of the country where they have yet to see that reduction on their grocery store shelf.”

With Easter just a few weeks away, she acknowledged that egg demand is always “unusually high during the season,” and that egg prices could potentially move back up.

To help address the egg shortage, Rollins noted that shell egg exports have declined by 8%, “keeping more eggs in the U.S. and lowering prices.”

In addition, the Trump administration is allowing egg imports as a temporary measure to stabilize prices and supply. Rollins’ chief of staff Kailee Buller said this measure would likely be discontinued once those measures were achieved.

USDA Focuses On Biosecurity For Poultry Operations
Rollins said biosecurity in poultry flocks will continue to be a major part of the Trump administration’s plan to address H5N1, moving forward.

“Our pilot programs have proven that biosecurity is the most important thing our farmers can do to protect our flocks against the disease, at least right now,” she said.

The USDA is working closely, she said, with its federal partners including the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Centers for Disease Control (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to “combat avian flu as a unified federal family.”

On Wednesday, USDA announced it is expanding the availability of its biosecurity assessments to commercial poultry producers.

“These assessments, which were previously available on a limited basis have been extremely successful in improving biosecurity on individual premises and preventing the introduction or spread of avian influenza,” Rollins said.

While USDA is exploring the viability of vaccinating poultry for H5N1, she said the use of any vaccine for poultry or any animal species has not been authorized at this time.

“I know there has been some misreporting on that,” Rollins said. “The day we rolled out the plan, I actually talked about the fact that we’re not ready to vaccinate. We need to do some more research, and so that has not changed, but I do look forward to this next process of learning more about getting more research done and perhaps seeing what makes sense for the country moving forward, once that is concluded.”

Dairy Is Not Part Of USDA’s Primary H5N1 Focus
No information was offered during the conference call to address the issue of H5N1 in dairy cattle or other livestock or animal species.

Mike Watson, administrator of USDA-APHIS, said right now USDA is focused on the poultry vaccine.

“We’re looking for a vaccine that has sterilizing immunity but also an opportunity for us to have different introduction methods for the vaccine right now, as injections are the only possibility,” he said. “We need new tools, whether it’s water based, aerosol based, those kind of things. We’re looking for manufacturers to really look at what those options might be, to really provide us with a vaccine that matches the current strain but also is highly effective. And again, this is really focused on poultry.”

Buller said there is already quite a bit of research at USDA on the topic in dairy.

“Please rest assured, we are thinking of you all (in dairy). We know you all are impacted. But for this particular strategy, we have been hyper-focused on the poultry side. USDA has separate work streams as we’re working through this on the cattle and dairy side.”

One of the media asked whether Sec. Rollins had talked further with HHS Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. regarding his idea of letting H5N1 burn through poultry flocks to identify birds that might have immunity or show resistance to the virus.

Buller answered the question, as Rollins had stepped away from the call. “I have not been engaged specifically with those conversations with the Secretary and Secretary Kennedy,” she said. “They are talking very regularly and you are aligned on the approach, but in terms of that specific topic, there’s no further light I can shed on that at this time.”

Assessments Available To Poultry Operations
USDA is offering two different, free, voluntary biosecurity assessments for poultry operations not currently affected by HPAI.

The first is a wildlife biosecurity assessment. The second is a general biosecurity assessment. Poultry producers can request one or both of these free assessments.

Per the wildlife biosecurity assessment, Rollins said USDA will conduct on-farm assessments at poultry facilities and provide recommendations to producers for facility repairs and wildlife management techniques. The assessments include a series of regular engagements, including wildlife hazard identification surveys, wildlife abundance surveys and wildlife management on the premises.

“USDA has assessed approximately 130 facilities to date (in 2025), and plans on doing significantly more moving forward and expanding that program,” she said.

For the general biosecurity assessment, USDA will work with poultry producers to review biosecurity plans and physical measures.

“This is a proactive resource for premises that are outside of avian flu control areas to identify and mitigate potential biosecurity gaps,” she said.

Funding Is Ramped Up To Address HPAI In Poultry
The USDA announced on Thursday that up to $100 million in funding will be available to support projects on avian influenza, prevention, therapeutics, vaccines and research.

“USDA will invest up to $100 million in these projects, which will identify and foster innovative solutions to fight avian flu and directly support American producers,” Rollins said during the conference call.

Funding is available through a competitive process to for-profit organizations, including manufacturers of vaccines, biologics and therapeutics, as well as states, universities, livestock producer organizations and other eligible entities, she noted.

USDA will prioritize one or more of the following. First, it will support the development of novel therapeutics to address HPAI in poultry. Second, it will support research to further understand the risk pathways of avian influenza for producers and to inform improved biosecurity and response strategies.

“Let me just say, as a quick aside, I’ve had multiples and multiples and multiples of conversations with some of our chicken farmers across the country —many of them have been highly successful at not having the bird flu infect their populations,” Rollins said. “Better understanding of risk pathways and realizing what best practices are is a big part of (this work).”

The third focus is on the development of novel vaccines to protect poultry from H5N1 while promoting biosecurity.

“That will all be part of the research funding opportunity that we announced about an hour and a half ago,” Rollins said.

USDA will test the efficacy of therapeutic interventions to prevent the virus and treat infected flocks.

“USDA, in consultation with HHS, has already had multiple conversations with Secretary Kennedy and leaders in the NIH and CDC, but will also be exploring prevention strategies to promote biosecurity in agriculture and in humans, to ensure limited impact on American farmers,” Rollins noted.

USDA is offering a webinar to assist interested applicants in learning more about the funding opportunity and how to submit a proposal on Tuesday, April 1 at 12 p.m. Eastern. No details on how to participate in the webinar have been communicated yet.

“As we try to do everything under this president and here at USDA, we will be as fast and efficient and effective as we can possibly be, working around the clock,” Rollins said.

Buller added that Sec. Rollins and her staff will continue to host update calls regularly.

“It’s very important to Sec. Rollins that we are showing progress on this five-prong plan and being honest and open with the public about what we’re up to and the progress and potential challenges that we have ahead,” Buller said. “We have an open door here, and we remain open to having conversations and hearing from stakeholders.”

As Trump Administration Shifts Strategy on Avian Flu, It's a Complicated Issue in Need of Long-Term Solutions

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 14:36:46 GMT

The Trump administration is rolling out a new strategy to combat avian flu, moving away from mass culling of infected flocks of egg-laying chickens. But as Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Farm Journal in an exclusive interview, the key to solving the issue is to find a solution that doesn’t just address the avian flu outbreak in the short-term. The plan also needs to find a solution that works long-term, as well.

USDA’s food price outlook report released Tuesday shows the sticker shock shoppers are seeing for egg prices. The report egg prices for 2025 now more double their previous forecast, now up 41.1% midpoint versus 20.3% last month.

Also on Monday, Rollins met with poultry farmers and industry leaders in Texas to address the ongoing avian flu crisis. She toured a Cal-Maine Foods facility in Bogata before hosting a roundtable in Mount Pleasant, where discussions focused on outbreak response and mitigation strategies. Rollins criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the issue, emphasizing the Trump administration’s commitment to supporting farmers and stabilizing egg prices. Following the roundtable, she spoke with local media about USDA’s efforts and the impact on Texas agriculture

That followed the Trump administration introducing a new plan last week, which was spearheaded by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and Rollins. The plan prioritizes enhanced biosecurity measures and medication to control the spread of the virus in egg-laying flocks.

“Clearly, this is a massive issue for our poultry producers, especially our egg layers,” Rollins told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory, in an exclusive interview. “Ensuring that we have a plan, not just for the short-term to bring down egg prices, which the president is very focused on, but for the long-term. What are the best practices around the world? Why in America have we been hit so hard? Why did the last USDA, a couple of years ago, recognize it as a major issue but not many steps were taken?”

Thank you East Texas! I am so grateful to so many as the learning tour continues — yesterday a poultry facility and a roundtable with #local farmers and ranchers to solicit feedback on combatting bird flu and lowering the cost of eggs. @POTUS and our team at @USDA remain… pic.twitter.com/ATXTEz0tVk
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 25, 2025

Just hours after being confirmed, Rollins’ first official meeting at the White House was on avian flu. She told Flory it’s her top priority right now, and she’s gathered a team from within USDA and the White House to focus on the issue.

“I’ve been talking to governors. I’ve been talking to the companies that are facing this. I’ve been talking to grocery. I mean, we’ve been talking to everyone, trying to come up with a big toolkit to be able to really approach this and hopefully figure out a way to, again, solve it for the long-term,” Rollins said.

Flory followed up by asking Rollins if vaccines will be one of the tools used by USDA.

“Vaccines are being discussed right now. I think that there is a lot of opinion on that on both sides. And we’re working through all of that right now,” Rollins told Flory.

Part of the Trump administration’s new strategy on avian flu released so far includes:

Biosecurity and Medication: Improved containment protocols and medication aim to reduce reliance on widespread culling.
Smart Perimeter Approach: Targeted containment methods will enhance efficiency in preventing outbreaks.
Collaboration: Government scientists and global academic experts are contributing to the plan’s development.

How to Get More Eggs in the Short-Term
The National Chicken Council (NCC) is also petitioning the FDA to lift a regulation that prevents broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply, arguing the move could ease record-high egg prices caused by the bird flu outbreak.

The 2009 rule forces broiler producers to discard surplus hatching eggs instead of selling them to processors, despite government risk assessments affirming their safety. If granted, the request would allow nearly 400 million eggs annually to be used in processed foods like bread, pasta and mayonnaise, alleviating strain on table egg supplies.

NCC previously sought relief under the Biden administration in 2023 but was denied. Now, with egg prices soaring, the organization is urging swift action from the Trump administration.

USDA Reports Decline in Egg production, Signs of Recovery Ahead

USDA’s latest report highlights key trends in the poultry industry, including a 4% decline in U.S. egg production for January 2025. This drop is largely due to a 4% reduction in laying hens, driven by the ongoing avian influenza outbreak.

However, signs of recovery are emerging: egg-type chick hatching rose by 6%, and incubation numbers increased by 7%. Meanwhile, broiler production is growing, with a 3% rise in broiler chick hatching. USDA will release updated forecasts on March 11, offering a clearer picture of the industry’s trajectory.

More details:

The number of layers fell to about 363 million in January, down 3.8% from a year ago.
Egg production of 8.865 billion was down 4.2% and the lowest for the month since 2016 — when there was a previous major outbreak of bird flu.

Egg Production

(Bloomberg)

Denny’s became the latest breakfast chain to announce an egg surcharge. Earlier this month, Waffle House introduced a temporary 50-cent surcharge per egg.

Major retailers, including Costco and Trader Joe’s, have had to act as well by imposing limits on how many eggs one customer can buy. According to USDA, the avian flu has killed more than 140 million egg-laying birds in the country since 2022. At least 18.9 million birds have been culled in the past 30 days alone.

Egg Prices and Market Conditions
Conventional table eggs jumped 36 cents a dozen nationally last week, on average.

Negotiated wholesale prices for graded loose eggs are firm to moving higher with a higher undertone. Demand for retail is moderate to good, while food service interest is lower. Offerings are very light, with little chance of improvement due to ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) impacts on productive flocks.

Price Trends

National trading: White large shell eggs increased $0.33 to $8.07 per dozen
New York market: Large cartoned shell eggs rose $0.24 to $8.47 per dozen
Midwest region: Large white shell eggs increased $0.28 to $8.09 per dozen
California benchmark: Large shell eggs rose $0.05 to $9.22 per dozen

Supply and Demand
Shell egg demand has increased over the past week, with marketers struggling to cover needs due to reduced supplies from HPAI outbreaks. Spot market bids routinely outpace offers, often by a factor of ten, with prices setting daily records. Shell egg shortages are now impacting most major markets.

Inventory and Production

Overall shell egg inventory declined 2%
Large class shell eggs inventory is down just over 1%
Cage-free egg stocks decreased 3.5%
Breaking stock inventory gained 2%
Total estimated table egg production unchanged from last week and last year

Breaking and Processing
Breaking schedules are generally reduced, running 3% below year-ago levels. The volume of eggs processed last week decreased just under 1%. Production of whole eggs was up nearly 3%, while egg components (whites and yolks) continue to decline.

Frozen Egg Storage
December monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage declined 7% from November, 38% below the December 2023 level. This is the lowest level of egg products stocks recorded in the last 10 years.

NCC’s Petition to Bring More Eggs Into the Market

As noted above, the National Chicken Council is also petitioning the FDA to lift a regulation preventing broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply.

· Consumer safety vs. potential economic benefits: The FDA determined that allowing the use of surplus broiler eggs would not maintain the same level of public health protection as the current egg safety rule. The agency prioritizes consumer safety over potential economic benefits.

· Refrigeration requirements: The 2009 rule requires all eggs entering the food supply to be kept at 45°F within 36 hours of being laid. Broiler eggs are typically stored at 65°F, which is incompatible with this requirement.

· Different risk profiles: While the NCC argues that pasteurized surplus broiler eggs present a different risk profile than raw table eggs, the FDA has not been convinced by this argument.

· Regulatory jurisdiction: The FDA has authority over shell eggs under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, while USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) regulates egg products. This division of responsibilities complicates the decision-making process.

· Previous rejections: The FDA has consistently denied similar petitions in the past, including one in June 2023. This suggests a long-standing policy position that is unlikely to change without significant new evidence or circumstances.

What Could Happen Moving Forward

USDA officials and analysts clearly understand the issue, but they are dealing with a topic that involves short- and long-term issues, FDA and White House officials. Also, throw in politics, with Democrats asking almost daily what the White House is doing about high egg prices.

A whole-of-government approach is evident on this issue via the Trump administration. That was not the approach on this topic during the Biden administration, even though various steps were taken by then USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. They just came too late or were not aggressive enough, sources conclude.

Industry contacts say the failure of former President Biden’s team to deal with the spread of HPAI means both a short- and long-term approach is now needed. There is only so much that can be done in the short run to lower egg prices. That topic should have been dealt with via more effective HPAI policy a few years ago, contacts advise. It was not.

The push is on for a multi-focus, all-inclusive approach including:

An increased focus on biosecurity, but with funding to help the industry accomplish that because of indemnity and other issues.
Finding different modes of administering medications, such as via water, feed and aerosols. But those methods are not yet available. Thus the need for expanded research funding on this topic.
Coming up with a trade strategy that could involve regionalization (trading with states outside impacted areas). But that has to be negotiated with trading partners, and that takes time. Also, industry officials are very hesitant about trade issues. A regionalization approach could be taken, but only after more vaccines are available. However, there are already regionalization agreements in place with some countries on bird flu. One question is what would any vaccination effort do to those regionalization agreements?
Increasing imports of eggs, but this could be limited and presents some quality issues and food safety issues (testing, etc.). But egg exporting countries are increasingly looking at the U.S. market due to prices and wanting to boost exports.
Any discussion of an embargo on U.S. egg exports should be moot. Reason: embargoes do not work. Example: The Carter grain embargo in 1980 against the then Soviet Union.

Vaccines:
USDA recently granted Zoetis a conditional USDA approval for an avian flu vaccine. Major poultry and dairy organizations back vaccine use to control the virus.

However, several problems exist regarding vaccines, including the trade angle previously discussed, and the fact that their effectiveness timeline wears off. Also, HPAI is multifaceted with different mutations causing vaccine-related issues.

As for FDA, if the agency is convinced somehow to temper its current safety rule, concerns still exist regarding increased threats of salmonella.

If the NCC petition would be approved in some way, increased testing for salmonella is just one requirement. Any cost-benefit analysis is difficult at best to do on this topic. Of note: It will be curious to see what HHS Secretary JFK Jr. says about this and other HPAI issues, especially the use of vaccines.

Risks:
If a change in the major depopulation strategy is implemented, the concern is that if it does not work, an explosive increase in HPAI cases could follow.

Upshot:
Limited avenues are available in the short run regarding bringing down egg prices, and containing HPAI. As previously mentioned, the reason for that in part is this topic was not taken as seriously as it should have been during the Biden administration because no such all-of-government approach was taken.

A likely game plan will or should be to lay the groundwork to deal with HPAI in the long run so it does not surface again years from now. But this will take time to unfold. Regarding egg prices, any effort to stop U.S. egg exports will likely be rejected. That means increase supply via imports and eventually more U.S. egg production, and/or reduced demand via higher prices.

Iowa Secretary of Ag Weighs In on The H5N1 Battle, Vaccine Potential And Trade Sensitivities

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:49:17 GMT

Eggs continue to be a hot topic in the news as supplies are down, prices are up – and expected to go even higher – and consumers are understandably concerned.

At the center of the issue, fanning the on-going problem for poultry and dairy producers as well, is the Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza A virus (HPAI H5N1).

AgriTalk Host Chip Flory broached the topic with Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig on Tuesday.

At the heart of their conversation was a two-part question – how does the U.S. address the virus and, in the process, prevent any potential negative ramifications on trade?

Naig says the federal government is taking what he described as a three-legged stool approach to addressing the problem in both industries.

He described the three legs of the stool as being USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), individual state animal health officials and industry.

“We work very closely with APHIS on this, meaning that they’re the ones that are providing the indemnity payments to producers. They are providing the disposal and cleanup assistance, but they must work in close collaboration with the states and state animal health officials,” Naig says. “And then, of course, you’ve got to have the third leg, which is industry.”

Biosecurity Measures
Naig noted that while the virus hit the poultry industry hard in 2015, it struck even harder in 2024.

“It’s not just in the Midwest or West, it’s been really all across the country now, affecting the egg laying industry, broilers and turkey production,” Naig says.

A significant positive, Naig says, is that biosecurity measures in the poultry industry appear to be preventing farm-to-farm spread. “The industry continues to get high marks for that, which wasn’t the case in 2015, which was so devastating because we didn’t have those strategies in place.”

“I believe, and our experience has been, that our USDA partners in this regard have been very strong,” he adds.

As Naig addressed the three-legged stool approach the U.S. is taking to addressing the virus in dairy, he says the three partners have more work to do.

“Frankly, there’s been a lot of criticism to share around the three legs, if you will, on how states have reacted, or how strongly USDA should have reacted, and what the industry is doing to try to contain that virus. So, I would say on the dairy side of things, it’s a different story (than in poultry). There’s a lot more work that’s yet to be done to even understand how that virus is impacting those (dairy) herds.”

What Is The Role For Vaccines?
Flory asked Sec. Nagy whether he believes a vaccine could be part of the solution to the virus or whether that would set up too many trade barriers. Flory also asked whether the virus is stable enough for a long enough period of time for a vaccine to be developed that would work effectively.

Both are questions the U.S. is grappling with as it tries to get ahead of the virus in dairy and poultry.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported the U.S. will rebuild a stockpile of avian influenza vaccines for poultry that match the strain of the virus circulating in commercial flocks and wild birds, citing the Department of Agriculture.

Naig told Flory that he believes a vaccine could be developed, with regard to poultry specifically, and its use negotiated into trade agreements.

“Those are challenges, and yet those are things that can be worked on and can be done, but it’s not easily done. I would want to put a flag there,” Naig says.

“I’m supportive of developing … we should try to figure out whether this can be an effective tool. If you’re in the broiler business or if you’re in the turkey meat business or if you’re in the egg business or maybe you’re in the genetics business, those are very different in terms of how you view that vaccine.”

Naig explains part of the different viewpoints on vaccine use have to do with the difference between poultry business segments.

“We need to recognize that those sectors are different in how they’ll view and potentially use a vaccine,” Naig says.

“Don’t treat them all the same. It’ll make way more sense for some than others.”

Naig did not weigh in on vaccine development for the dairy industry specifically.

The full conversation between Naig and Flory on AgriTalk is available below.

Your next read: Think Egg Prices Are Already Too High? USDA Says Retail Egg Prices Could Jump Another 20% in 2025

USDA’s Latest Farm Income Data Looks Brighter Than Early 2024 Numbers

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:42:03 GMT

USDA–Economic Research Service (ERS) has released updated projections for 2024 farm income, and though it’s still anticipated to decline, the outlook doesn’t look quite as dim as it did earlier this year.

The new numbers show net cash farm income for the 2024 calendar year will fall $12 billion, which is about 7% down from 2023, and net farm income will fall $6.5 billion or 4.4%. This is compared to projections released in February of this year that suggested net farm income would fall 26%.

“There are a lot of factors going on here, but to me, the primary ones are that the revisions reflect expectations that animal and animal product cash receipts will increase while production expenses will fall,” says USDA–ERS economist Carrie Litkowski. “This is largely due to the incorporation of new data.

Litkowski shares the primary cause for the fall in 2024 farm income comes from commodity prices. Cash receipts or sales are expected to decrease by $27.7 billion. When combined with the inventory adjustment for crops, the value of crop production is forecast to decrease $25.6 billion from 2023. The largest decline comes from corn and soybeans, though wheat producers are expected to have a nearly 50% decline in average net cash farm income in 2024.

USDA ERS Row Crop Cash Receipt Projections 9-5-24

(USDA ERS)

But it’s not all bad news for crop farmers. Fertilizer expenses are expected to fall almost 10%.

Better News in Livestock
The outlook for livestock producers is more positive. Total animal and animal product recipes are expected to increase by $17.8 billion, or 7.1%, with the main driver coming from egg prices.

“Receipts for eggs are perhaps the biggest story here, in that they are forecast to see the largest increase in 2024 at 35%, or about $6 billion. Eggs alone account for a little more than half of the total increase in animal and animal product receipts,” Litkowski says. “Back in February, we did not anticipate that egg prices were going to increase as much as they have. That’s due to supply restraints we’re seeing due to the avian flu.”

Dairy farm businesses can expect to see the largest increase in average net farm income at 47.2%. Litkowski attributes this to higher milk receipts and lower expenses in 2024.

Farm businesses specializing in hogs are forecast to have an 11% increase but remain low relative to prior years. Beef farm businesses are projected at a 9.7% increase and poultry will see an 11.7% increase.

USDA ERS Livestock Cash Receipt Projections 9-5-24

(USDA ERS)

These operations should see big savings in feed as well, with an anticipated decline of 12%.

Geographic Breakdown
Looking at the data by region, six of USDA’s nine regions will see lower average net cash farm income. Farmers in the heartland states will be hit the hardest with a 23% decline.

Income increases are forecast for producers in the northern crescent and fruitful rim regions — between 1% and 4%. Litkowski says this is where many dairy farms are located and can be attributed to the expectations for higher dairy receipts and lower expenses.

“Regional performance of farm businesses can vary considerably due to the strong geographic concentration of certain production specialties or average farm size,” she explains. “Across all farm businesses, average net cash farm income is forecast to decrease 9% from 2023 to 2024 in nominal dollars.”

USDA ERS Farm Income By Region 9-5-24

(USDA ERS)

Household Income Remains Unchanged
Total farm household income is projected to increase 1.7% in 2024 to $99,683. However, when inflation is taken into consideration, Litkowski says she categorizes it as “relatively unchanged”.

“1.7% is less than the expected rate of inflation in 2024, so it’s really more like a decline of 0.7% in real dollars,” she explains.

The Big Picture
While this year’s income projections may have producers concerned about their bottom line, USDA–ERS stresses the importance of looking at the numbers with the past 20 years in mind.

“The farm sector balance sheet is projected to remain strong,” Litkowski says. “Net farm income fell 22% from 2022 to 2023, and in 2024 net farm income is forecast to fall nearly 7%. Even with these expected declines, both sectors in 2024 are forecast to remain above their 20-year-average.”

USDA ERS Farm Income 20-year Average 9-5-24

(USDA ERS)

Click here for the full report.

Your Next Read: How Do You Know When Agriculture Is In A Recession?

Clean Water Act Violation: $50,000 Fine for Iowa Farm's Manure Runoff

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:22:25 GMT

A livestock farm in southeastern Iowa has been fined $50,000 after the owner and an employee plead guilty to charges of violating the Clean Water Act while discharging manure.

In a press release from the Department of Justice , it is outlined that Scott Allen Etcher, age 55, and Benjamin Allen McFarland, age 29, from Etcher Family Farms of New London, Iowa, were sentenced following guilty pleas to Discharge of a Pollutant. The sentencing occurred on Feb. 26, after both Etcher and McFarland had pleaded guilty on Oct. 25, 2018 , to criminal violations of the Clean Water Act.

The guilty plea determined that on or around July 22, 2015, agricultural waste pollutants were negligently discharged. Benjamin McFarland, an employee of the farm, had knowingly applied liquid manure from the concentration animal feeding operation industry (CAFO) via an umbilical discharge hose onto nearby farm land. The liquid manure then runoff directly into an unnamed tributary to Big Creek. The application of the manure, which was deemed as a “pollutant” by the court, was an unpermitted discharge and had been done under the supervision of the owner and operator of Etcher Family Farms, Scott Etcher.

In an email to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Farm Journal was told that court filings by the Iowa Secretary of State indicated that the CAFO was a dairy farm.

Under the sentencing, Etcher Family Farms will serve a five years of organizational probation, pay a $50,000 fine and a $400 special assessment payable to the Crime Victims’ Fund.

Terms of the probation include:

The prohibition from discharging any pollutants to a water of a the United States except in compliance with a permit from the approved authority
Etcher Family Farms will establish, implement, and enforce an Environmental Compliance Plan and the organization will not seek early termination from probation until all obligations of the plea agreement are satisfied and the Environmental Compliance Plan has been fully implemented for two years
Etcher Family Farm should pay for independent laboratory analysis of samples collected by either the Iowa Department of Natural Resources or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Etcher Family Farms will publish a public notice of the agreement and underlying facts in a national trade publication serving the CAFO

In addition, Scott Allen Etcher, owner of the farm, will also serve a five year probation and is to pay a $25 special assessment to the Crime Victims’ Fund. Benjamin Allen McFarland, employee on the farm, was sentenced to two years of probation and a $25 special assessment payable to the Crime Victims’ Fund.

The case was investigated by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the Environmental Protection Agency. The case was prosecuted by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Iowa.

Wild thing, you make my heart sing. You make everything groovy.

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:17 GMT

In case you missed it you can now share the -8-25-20 evening of absurdity with nationally-syndicated cartoonists Leigh Rubin, creator of the comic strip “Rubes,” and Wisconsin State Journal editorial cartoonist Phil Hands. This odd couple riffed off each other’s cartoons, demonstrated how the twisted minds of two different cartoonists work. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from a professional smart-aleck or full-time doodler, now’s your chance!

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/DMKXBYXOkHQ

In their memory

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:17 GMT

https://youtu.be/DMKXBYXOkHQ

Play ball!

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:17 GMT

https://youtu.be/DMKXBYXOkHQ

Chicken or Egg: Which came first? It's enough to make you wacky!

Tue, 20 Sep 2022 05:02:21 GMT

ATTN: GRAPESTOMPING COW IN YOUTUBE VIDEO BELOW. (REALLY!)

Hi All! Thought you might enjoy the pilot episode of, Drawing Inspiration, a family friendly TV show my creative partner and I have been working on for several years which focuses on creativity, innovation, inspiration and of course, humor. And yes, for those of you who are bovine-inclined, like me, the main star is a cow! Cheers! Leigh www.RubesCartoons.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NZyHjbbeEg

Be sure Follow Leigh on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter @RubesCartoons Event planners, when’s the last time you had a hilarious and inspirational speaker at your conference, sales meeting, banquet, etc? Hundreds of thought-provoking LOL’s guaranteed! https://www.rubescartoons.com/rit-cartoonist-in-residence.html