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The Shrinking Slice: Farmers Receive Less Than 6 Cents of Every Food Dollar

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:45:07 GMT

For the past two years, USDA has estimated farmers and ranchers received less than 6 cents of every food dollar. In 2023, that was 5.9 cents, and using the latest data from 2024, it’s 5.8 cents.

“Our oldest data point right now is 2007 [USDA updated the data series] and that’s 14.7 cents per dollar, and now we’re down all the way to 11.8 cents per dollar,” says Faith Parum, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “So we’ve really seen that decline year after year. It reflects how much of the value of things in the grocery store or when you go out to eat is going to other parts of the supply chain and not necessarily to farmers and ranchers.”

Livestock vs. Crops: A Widening Gap

The aggregate decline masks a widening gap between sectors. While the overall farmer share is down, livestock and crop producers are seeing divergent trends:

Crop Farmers: Share dropped from 2.9 cents to 2.5 cents (a 2.5% year-over-year decrease).
Livestock Producers: Share increased from 3 cents to 3.3 cents.

“Overall, the farmer share is down. But we have those two markets really at odds,” Parum says. “We’ve seen that tale of two farm economies where our livestock producers maybe have seen a little bit of better days than they had had in the past, while our row crop farmers and our specialty crop farmers are really facing strong headwinds in the market.”

Effect at the Farm Gate

As highlighted by USDA, farm finances are quickly strained when farmers/ranchers are capturing a small percentage of the food dollar and even modest swings in commodity prices and/or input prices take place.

Parum adds, “when we talk about the health of our farms and the health of future generations on the farm, and being economically viable and sustainable and being able to keep their operations open, the trends we’re seeing right now are really hard for those farmers. Our ranchers are seeing a little bit of better days right now with high beef prices, but that’s not going to last forever, and with production expenses continuing to increase, we’re really going to see that that question come up of, what is sustainable if, if these dollars we’re spending in the grocery store aren’t making it back to our farmers.”

Where Does the Money Get Distributed?

The key takeaway: farmers produce the raw commodities that make food production, however, the price is clearly more determined by what happens after the products first leave the farm.

The USDA Food Dollar Series tracks how each dollar is spent by consumers and then divides it across the industries contributing to the value in the supply chain, such as farming, food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retail and food service. As noted by the USDA, with each step in the process, the additional services, labor, transportation and infrastructure add value and increase costs to the final food product.

USDA’s Economic Research Service Food Dollar Series shows in 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, the remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the ‘marketing bill’, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing and food service. Over time, this shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farm production itself.

Groceries Leave the Most on The Table For Farmers

Farmers’ share of consumer food spending varies widely depending on the type of food purchased. For example, the farm share of the food-at-home dollar was 18.5 cents in 2024, up slightly from 18.4 cents in 2023. But even in this category it means only than one-fifth of what consumers spend on groceries goes back to farmers.

As you may expect, products with minimal processing, require less of the value to be retained in that part of the food system, and therefore return a larger share of the food dollar to producers.

“The highest commodity that gets the most of that food dollar is fresh eggs,” Parum notes. “That’s just because there’s limited labor to process that food.”

Examples include:

Fresh Eggs: 69.1 cents (+6% from 2023)
Beef: 52.2 cents (+4.8%)
Fresh Milk: 50.8 cents (+5.6%)
Pork: 23.7 cents (+7.2%)
Poultry (+3.1%)
Fish (+2.8%)
Tree nuts and peanuts (-1.7%)
Fresh fruits and vegetables (unchanged)
Bakery Products: 4.8 cents (-9.4%)
Soft Drinks/Bottled Water: 1.3 cents (-7.1%)

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 21:41:51 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

New Product of the Year 2025 Runner-Up: BenVireo TerraLux From Wilbur-Ellis

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 22:29:35 GMT

There’s a new twist for a common conventional product now available for the organic market. As Gina Colfer, sustainable solutions agronomy manager for Wilbur-Ellis, explains, BenVireo TerraLux (10-0-0 liquid organic nitrogen (N) fertilizer) is something organic growers may not have dreamed they’d have access to 30 years ago.

Readers also voted BenVireo TerraLux as runner-up in The Scoop’s 19th annual New Product of the Year contest for 2025.

“This is a really new, unique, novel form of organic nitrogen. It’s not new so much on the conventional side, because it is ammonium nitrate, but it is new on the organic side, because it is organic and it is biologically derived from dairy lagoon effluent,” she says. “So, it is a true waste stream that we are taking and making a really needed product for organic growers.”

From its repurposed supply source to its novel crop nutrition for the organic market, this new product got the attention of The Scoop’s audience as they voted it to be the 2025 New Product of the Year runner-up.

“It is a 100% plant-available nitrogen in the form of ammonium nitrate. This is a straight shot, so you don’t have to go through that mineralization process in the soil. And really, nitrogen is one of the limiting factors for organic growers, so this helps the organic grower place their nitrogen when they need it, when their plants need it,” Colfer says.

In addition to flexible application options, one other benefit is low odor.

Colfer says this is a new tool that many organic growers never expected to have access to.

“It is so new that [we’re] helping them understand how to place it in their system and when and how to apply it,” she says. “The product is filtered down to 1 micron, so it can go through any type of irrigation system, even microsprinklers, microdrip, foliar applications through the drone. It has a 0:1 carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, so there is no carbon in it to grow biofilm in any of the drip tapes or tanks that you store it in.”

Its ease of use is something she says is really sticking out with growers who have been part of early trials.

“We’ve done foliar application trials on spinach, where we’ve gone in at 2 gal. per acre and 60 gal. of water in warm weather in the desert, looking for phytotoxicity, because that is a big issue; you look at spinach sideways and it burns,” she says. “We wanted to really be confident, because we feel this is a great leafy greens application. And at that application rate, later in the growing season when the spinach is really running out of gas, we showed no phytotoxicity.”

Other crops with positive trials reported are blueberries, strawberries, broccoli and corn.

Your next read: New Product of the Year 2025 — Biotrinsic Nemora FP From Indigo Ag

FBN Spins Out Its Crop Protection Business, Focuses on Marketplace and Technology

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 16:03:20 GMT

Last week, just a few hours after Corteva announced its spin out dividing seeds from crop protection, Farmers Business Network (FBN) announced it is separating its businesses. Moving forward FBN will focus on its digital marketplace for farmers, and the newly launched Global Crop Solutions will be an independent supplier of crop protection products.

FBN leaders say the timing is coincidental. Their motive for the timing was brought about by the new fiscal year. But they offer both of the announcements together could be a sign of a trend of vertical integration getting unwound in the name of efficiency and focus.

“We’re doubling down, allotting capital on digital innovation for FBN’s future,” says Diego Casanello, CEO of FBN. “FBN’s core business is a digital commerce and fintech platform. We want farmers to be able to buy, finance, and market everything they need while sitting in their combines. These are technology challenges, so the core competence you need to be successful at FBN is different from managing the supply chain of the crop protection business.”

In the past 14 months, FBN has been refocusing its business. First, it spun off its insurance business, then its Gradable business into a joint-venture with ADM. Now with its crop protection business spin out, Casanello says the FBN marketplace will feature GCS products, such as Willowood USA branded products, via a strategic partnership, and GCS products will explore distribution beyond the FBN marketplace.

“The big unlock for GCS is the opportunity to serve the entire retail and co-op industry,” Casanello says. “It frees GCS of any channel conflicts and hits the ground running with one of the largest portfolios of products in the industry. And it frees FBN from similar constraints as we move to an open marketplace architecture. We are onboarding new sellers and their portfolios every week. We provide them the tools to manage pricing, marketing, and placement. FBN is open for business and we’ve had significant interest from additional partners before and after the announcement.”

FBN’s Marketplace Strategy

Currently, FBN says it has 120,000 farmer members in the U.S. and Canada. The business provides a marketplace with farm inputs and supplies, financial services and data-driven intelligence.

FBN co-founder Charles Baron says the FBN marketplace has expanded its product range to include crop protection, seed (with additional partner news coming soon), fertilizer, livestock products, veterinary pharmaceuticals, farm supplies and more.

“To farmers, there’s no change in their experience. And over time, we’ll bring an even broader assortment of goods,” Baron says. “You’ll be seeing announcements from us every two weeks or so about the suppliers coming on the platform. It’s one of the most exciting times in our history.”

The leaders say farmer use of e-commerce has increased every year since they launched, and in 2025 FBN served a record number of customers. “Farmers are really focusing on value right now and maximizing every dollar,” said Baron. And per their analytics roughly 35% of U.S. farmers visit FBN.com to browse inputs, apply for financing, or look for information.

The Future of GCS

As a newly formed independent crop protection supplier, GCS has a portfolio of 250 registrations on post-patent products. The company will specialize in sourcing, managing first mile logistics, developing new products and regulatory aspects.

To lead the business and its team, Amy Yoder, most recently EVP of FBN’s livestock division, is incoming CEO.

“Global Crop Solutions launches today as an independent powerhouse,” said Yoder, in a press release. “For the first time, our extensive portfolio and efficient global supply chain are fully available to all partners— from retailers, to distributors, to co-ops. Our independence unlocks immense growth potential and allows us to be the most reliable and collaborative partner to the entire agricultural industry.”

Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:17:28 GMT

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then the video Iowa farmer Dan Striegel shot last week must be worth thousands more. In the video, Striegel is shown harvesting a field of emerald-green corn enveloped in a cloud of orangish-red southern rust.

“We were just getting that field opened up, and I looked over and saw that dust boiling up out of the chopper, so I shot the video,” Striegel says.

Southern Rust? Never heard of her.
What Cheer, Iowa. USA. #pftour25 #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/tiIsUc2CHl
— Dan Striegel (@djsinseia) August 21, 2025

To date, Striegel’s video has garnered more than 48,000 views on X, formerly Twitter.

“We’re in southeast Iowa, Keokuk County, and I think the southern rust is as bad here as it is anywhere,” Striegel adds. “Every field you walk in, if you’re wearing a white T-shirt, you’ll come out of there red.”

A Red Path Of Disease Mars The Midwest

Expect to see more red T-shirt-clad farmers walking out of cornfields across the upper Midwest, based on what the Crop Protection Network (CPN) southern rust map is showing.

The CPN continually updates its online, interactive map showing the counties by state where southern rust infections are confirmed. Now, in late August, the counties look like red steppingstones. They form a checkered path from southwest Michigan through northern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Wisconsin, across all of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of the way across Nebraska. Eastern South Dakota is also lit up with a string of red counties, as are parts of southern to central Minnesota.

The amount of southern rust present in the upper Midwest is worrisome to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. In severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the CPN.

“At most, one in 10 growers in northern Iowa and Minnesota have seen the kind of southern rust some of them are seeing this year,” says Ferrie, who was working last week with corn growers in both states.

“It was a problem in probably eight out of every 10 fields I was in, and they’d all been sprayed at least once,” he says. “Minnesota has a corn crop that’ll knock your socks off – yield potential of 250, 270. I encouraged every grower to spray their field a second time except for two fields. One had been knocked down by hail, and the other had a hybrid that was clean.”

I spoke with a good friend of mine from Iowa yesterday that is an agronomist and farmer. He said the southern rust in corn across Iowa and much of the Midwest will take 9 to 12 bushel/acre off corn yields on average from what his team and himself are seeing. pic.twitter.com/Ad1VJ9oQBg
— Captain Cornelius1 (@ISU145) August 26, 2025

Hybrids Have Little To No Resistance To Southern Rust

A combination of early-season moisture, heat and wind formed the perfect storm for southern rust this season, allowing the disease-causing fungal spores (Puccinia polysora) to move from southern climes up to the Midwest, according to Kurt Maertens, BASF technical service representative for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.

“We’ve seen it all – southern rust, tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot. Our corn has been inundated with all these fungal diseases, and we started seeing them early,” says Maertens.

If there’s a silver lining to southern rust, it’s that it does not overwinter in corn residue like tar spot does. But like tar spot, southern rust takes advantage of hybrids that have no built-in resistance. For many growers, that was an Achilles heel this season.

“When you’re dealing with a 117-day hybrid like they grow in southern Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, you don’t grow corn that doesn’t have good southern rust resistance, because they deal with it every year,” Ferrie notes. “When you move to Minnesota, and you’re planting 102- to 95-day corn, you’re probably not going to find hybrids with southern rust resistance.”

Striegel says that was true for his neighbor’s cornfield, which he custom chopped for silage. “That field had two hybrids in it, one was worse than the other, and the field had been sprayed with a fungicide,” he says.

He adds that he also sprayed his own cornfields with fungicide, but they are still inundated with southern rust.

“We’ve had southern rust before, and it’s not usually something we have to worry about, but this is really bad,” Striegel says. “I’m standing on my deck looking at the cornfield next to my house, and you know, all of the leaves from the ears down in that field are covered with it.”

Southern rust is real in eastern Nebraska. Fungicide 3 weeks ago, 2nd app today with some potassium acetate pic.twitter.com/WZubU6IBwz
— Trent Mastny (@TrentMastny) August 21, 2025

How Late Is A Fungicide Application Still Worthwhile?

Ferrie says the fields he scouted last week were at late R3 to early R4 and had already been sprayed with fungicide at least once, but the disease was rebuilding.

“Any field where farmers had sprayed two weeks previously, the southern rust and northern corn leaf blight, to a lesser degree, were coming back, especially the southern rust. It was resporating,” he says.

The intense disease pressure from southern rust, tar spot and others have kept fungicide use at high levels this season, despite poor commodity prices.

“Because of that [amount of disease pressure], we have seen increased demand for our fungicides this year,” says Maertens, who encouraged customers to get applications made at the beginning of tassel.

Maertens says he has fielded a lot of questions this summer from farmers, asking how late they could go with a fungicide application and still benefit.

“Our recommendation is to get in front of disease,” he says. “Generally, we stop applications before we get to dent (R5). That’s not to say a later application can’t have some benefit, but our best results have been before infection was able to take place.”

Southern rust is a yield enemy farmers routinely face in the Southeast, reports corn yield champion Randy Dowdy, Valdosta, Ga. He participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week and said on U.S. Farm Report he believes many Midwest farmers still have time to address disease.

“We need to implore the fungicides, the technologies out there and get after it and protect this crop, especially that crop that still has not reached dent,” he says.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer likes to see farmers complete their fungicide applications on the front side of dough (early R4). “Once we get to early dent, I think it’s a little more challenging to get the payback consistently, though we’ve applied at early dent (R5), and seen a nice response,” says Bauer, who is based in south-central Michigan.

Under the tough disease pressure farmers are facing this year, Bauer is telling growers to scout fields and evaluate what growth stage their crop is in before they walk away or pull the fungicide trigger one last time.

She adds that farmers need to check the label to make sure the product used is able to address southern rust effectively. She describes these as “Cadillac” products containing the newest chemistry.

“When it comes to some of these diseases, especially southern rust and tar spot, I do believe a little bit of a Hail Mary pass can be effective,” she says. “Will it be as effective as an application you could have made on a more timely basis? Well, no, you could have made more money doing it timely, but you’re still protecting bushels and gaining ROI at the end.”

Ferrie adds that farmers might want to do the late-season fungicide application to keep their corn crop standing until they can put their harvest plan in place.

“Be doing the push test to check stalk quality,” he advises.

Southern Rust/Silage Alert!!

Southern Rust has been aggressively advancing in many fields, especially those without a fungicide treatment. In some situations the plants are shutting down prematurely and plant material is senescing rapidly.

While we typically want to get down… pic.twitter.com/aK3hGgZE19
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) August 26, 2025

Striegel says some of the farmers around him are heading to fields to harvest their silage corn sooner than later, because of standability concerns. “Some of this corn got planted early, and we had a lot of heat. The crop matured quickly, and the diseases are kind of shutting it down. It’s just dying out, and guys are going to go get it,” he explains.

That’s the strategy Ferrie encourages farmers to use in regular production corn, too.

“Harvest the fields most at risk first. But if a field of corn goes down, go combine the fields where the corn is still standing and come back to that one later,” he recommends.

The reasoning is you don’t want to risk more corn going down while you’re harvesting the field of corn that already has.

“While I was driving through Iowa last week, I kept thinking that if I built corn reels to pick up down corn I’d bulk up my inventory, because I know where they’re going to get used,” Ferrie says, only half joking. “Yes, harvesting corn at 25% moisture is expensive, but down corn will kick your butt.”

Your next read: Revenge Applications: Why They Don’t Work, Cost You Money and Bushels, and Are Frankly Illegal

Could EPA Decision Signal The Beginning Of The End For DEF?

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 16:27:17 GMT

Mike Berdo has strong words to describe his ongoing experiences using machinery requiring DEF ( Diesel Exhaust Fluid ) on his southeast Iowa farm.

“It has been an absolute nightmare, at least for us. Mechanics make trip after trip to do little stuff that’s very expensive to fix,” said Berdo, who produces grain and beef cattle near Washington. “We had planting delays last spring … little stuff that came from it and just seemed like [an issue to deal with] day after day.”

The ongoing mechanical issues and costs are why Berdo said he is “all for” EPA rescinding the 2009 Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding. The Finding has enabled the agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act and, in recent years, and launch requirements such as the use of DEF systems in diesel-powered engines.

EPA Draws A Line In The Sand
On Tuesday, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin released a proposal to rescind the 2009 Finding.

If finalized, the proposal would remove all greenhouse gas standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and heavy-duty engines, EPA said in a follow-up press release .

The move would start with EPA’s first greenhouse gas standard set in 2010 for light-duty vehicles and those set in 2011 for medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles and engines.

EPA said the proposal is expected to “save Americans $54 billion in costs annually through the repeal of all greenhouse gas standards, including the Biden EPA’s electric vehicle mandate, under conservative economic forecasts.”

Zeldin made the announcement to rescind the Finding in Indiana, alongside Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and called it the largest deregulatory action in U.S. history.

What The Decision Could Mean To Farmers
Specific to U.S. farmers, the proposal could potentially result in DEF systems no longer being included on new tractors and other heavy equipment using diesel-powered engines, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, during a Farmer Forum discussion on Wednesday.

South Dakota farmer Ryan Wagner told Flory he has a wait-and-see perspective on how or whether the EPA proposal goes into effect. He anticipates that reversing the Finding will take considerable time and effort for EPA to implement.

“It took a long time with the interim engines and things to get into full DEF in the first place,” Wagner said. “I don’t know how long it would take to unwind all that and how quickly manufacturing will just take those systems right off, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens.”

To Wagner’s point, here’s a brief look back at some timing showing when DEF rolled out in agriculture and nonroad equipment and became mandatory . The regulations were phased in over several years based on the type of equipment and engine size:

2008: DEF became required for all new diesel engines with engine sizes over 750 horsepower.

2011: the regulations expanded to include equipment with engine sizes between 175-750 horsepower.

By 2015, all new nonroad diesel engines were required to be Tier 4 compliant and utilize DEF, regardless of equipment type or engine size.

As Wagner considers DEF, he noted its use in diesel engines has provided him with one benefit: “On the plus side, I do like that they don’t make the walls of my shop black. That’s been nice,” he said. “You can run them inside for a short time and not not feel like you’re breathing in a bunch of soot and making everything black.”

Expect Legal Challenges To EPA Decision
A number of environmental groups have already blasted the move by EPA, saying it spells the end of the road for U.S. action against climate change, according to an online article by Reuters .

Legal challenges from various environmental groups, states and lawyers are likely ahead.

That fact wasn’t lost on Flory and the Farmer Forum participants during the AgriTalk discussion on Wednesday.

“If this proposal is finalized, it’s going to start a lot of conversations … and the dominoes are going to start to fall, something that we need to keep track of, no doubt,” Flory said. You can hear the complete Farmer Forum discussion on AgriTalk here:

EPA will initiate a public comment period to solicit input. Further information on the public comment process and instructions for participation will be published in the Federal Register and on the EPA website .

Your next read: Right To Repair Granted? John Deere Launches Digital Self-Repair Tool for $195 Per Tractor

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:14:24 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

USDA's Rollins: 'Let's Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners' For Trade

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:25:26 GMT

On Brooke Rollins’ first full week on the job as Secretary of Agriculture, she addressed the 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders in Kansas City for the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

High on Rollins’ list of priorities was the topic of trade and President Donald Trump’s vision for U.S. agriculture moving forward.

While Rollins did not shy away from addressing the administration’s decision to implement trade tariffs, noting “farmer and rancher concerns are legitimate,” she focused on what she sees as her role ahead.

“My job is to ensure that as President Trump and our trade representatives are making their decisions that I am in the room and advocating on behalf of our people, on behalf of all of you,” she told Top Producer Summit attendees.

One of her key objectives, she says, is to find and expand market access for U.S. agricultural products domestically and abroad.

“Let’s go barnstorm the world, and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” she says.

Rollins says her goals for trade are a reflection of Trump’s vision and his determination to make agriculture part of the “golden age” he sees ahead for the U.S.

Trump is the consummate deal maker, Rollins notes, able to side-step bureaucracy and red tape in the process to work with world leaders.

“I don’t know that in the last 250 years, we’ve had anyone in office like President Trump,” she says. “He is a very unusual, remarkable and fearless man, and he wants to make a deal, and in the best way, and put America first.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke to a crowd of 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders at the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

(Jim Barcus)

Making Headway With Trade
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, who moderated the conversation with Rollins, highlighted Trump’s work to build trade during his first term.

“He redid USMCA, and now that’s our largest ag partnership, with Mexico and Canada,” Marshall says. “He gave us South Korea and Japan, which has been so important to Kansas and our cattle industry, as well as trade 1.0 with China.”

Marshall then mentioned the headway he believes Trump and team have made with India.

“I see India replacing China as our major trade partner, as well that China is growing right now,” Marshall says. “I think there’s huge opportunities in India.”

U.S. ethanol, cotton and tree nuts are three of the top agricultural exports to India, a country that has in the past impeded agricultural trade with tariffs and non-tariff barriers alike. Trump called out the barriers to trade following recent conversations with India’s Prime Minster Modi.

A joint statement after the Trump-Modi meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to lower tariffs on select U.S. products and increase market access to U.S. farm products, while seeking to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.

Rollins says the progress underway with India was just one step forward to address what she described as a trade crisis for the U.S.

“Our exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to be down $42 billion in the months to come. This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins says.

“We have a tremendous amount of work to do,” she adds. “But my promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years, I will do everything within my power with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work to ensure that we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but that we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

Secretary Rollins joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion about trade policy and tariffs; avian flu; and disaster and economic aid.

Your next read: Senate Overwhelmingly Confirms Brooke Rollins as 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

How Important is U.S. Ag and Food to the Economy?

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 01:31:09 GMT

As the saying goes, “numbers don’t lie,” and this rings especially true in the 2023 Feeding the Economy report, showing the economic importance of U.S. food and agriculture to communities throughout the nation.

Sponsored by 25 food and agriculture groups across all areas of the food supply chain, the report illustrates the food and agricultural impact on local and nationwide economic activity, underscoring the sector’s resilience and reliability amid a number of global and domestic disruptions.

“Feeding the Economy demonstrates how agriculture is connected to each stage of the supply chain, every item in the grocery store and relied upon by multiple other indispensable industries. The report provides insightful data and research on how the food and agriculture industry consistently generates a positive trade balance as well as millions of jobs while boosting economic vitality in rural and urban areas,” says Mike Seyfert, president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association.

Economic Output

Showing an increased economic output in all 50 states compared to the 2022 report, the industries contributed to over $8.6 trillion, nearly 20%, of the country’s economic activity. In addition, the industries accounted for over $202 trillion in export value.

Reflecting a rebound in national economic activity, the largest total output gains were from Hawaii (31%), North Dakota (26%), New York (23%), Nevada (22%) and Florida (21%), according to the report.

Agriculture and food businesses also contribute over $947 trillion to federal and state taxes, including $565.3 trillion and $382.5 trillion, respectively.

Jobs and Wages

Despite the economic challenges and disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2023, a total of 22,924,189 million jobs are tied directly to the food and agriculture sector, claiming $927.4 billion in wages. This contributes to a total of over 46.2 million jobs and $2.6 trillion in wages supported across the whole supply chain, increasing nearly 2% since 2019.

Productivity

“The strength and growth highlighted in this year’s report reinforce that agriculture is evolving and innovating to meet the demands of the 21st century,” the report says.

USDA notes that between 1948 and 2019, land use for agriculture decreased by 28% while land productivity grew nearly four times and labor productivity grew more than 10 times, the report adds, with agriculture’s total factor productivity growth rate among the highest of U.S. sectors.

While producers raise crops, produce and livestock on two of every five acres of U.S. soil, millions of other U.S. workers fulfill jobs in over 200,000 food manufacturing, processing and storage facilities to strengthen the food supply chain across the world. Additionally, approximately 200,000 retail food stores and over 1 million restaurant locations provide food for communities from coast to coast.

The sheer number of jobs and total of wages, taxes and export values highlight the vitality of the industry to our nation. However, for many Americans, both rural and urban, agriculture and food are more than simply a paycheck.

“American agriculture is really the foundation of our lives and our economy. This study reveals the numbers, and maybe some of the spirit, of this one indispensable sector,” says Roger Cryan, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The full report can be found on the Feeding the Economy website .

How To Translate Generational Misunderstandings

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 16:24:36 GMT

The week of June 10, Farm Journal is celebrating the next generation of American agriculture. Our goal is to encourage you to plan for the future and cultivate multigenerational success through the transfer of skills and knowledge. Think tomorrow, act today to align your asset, resource and financial legacy.

Communication between one generation to another can seem like talking a different language.

“I suggest you approach looking at another generation with curiosity rather than judgment,” says Kim Lear of Inlay Insights.

In her work, Lear shares generational theory insights and highlights how these are trends, not traits, but can inform better teamwork.

Why It Matters Now

Taking a refreshed approach to understanding on-farm team members from other generations is top of mind as today there are four generations actively employed across our economy.

When bringing more than one generation into leadership roles on the farm, it’s helpful to understand how to communicate.

“Dates given for generations are just a starting point. Generational theory is taking formative events from our growing years and seeing how they shape the people who lived through it,” she explains

A typical generation spans 15 to 18 years, and while general trends can be highlighted, Lear also notes there are exceptions.

“There are individuals who sit between two generations, and those people can serve important roles communicating between the generations. They are generationally bilingual,” Lear says.

3 Steps for Generations To Work Together
“We are in a unique time where we have four generations in the workforce,” says Kim Lear. She suggests three steps to bring together a productive team. 1. Prioritize clarity over brevity in communication. 2. Instill respect as the foundation. 3. Deliver feedback in a way that motivates to improve rather than paralyze with fear. Give a clear path for the road to improvement with the tools to get where they need to be.

3 Steps for Generations To Work Together

“We are in a unique time where we have four generations in the workforce,” says Kim Lear. She suggests three steps to bring together a productive team.

1. Prioritize clarity over brevity in communication.

2. Instill respect as the foundation.

3. Deliver feedback in a way that motivates to improve rather than paralyze with fear. Give a clear path for the road to improvement with the tools to get where they
need to be.

We Are Getting Older

The scales are tilting toward an older society, and there are fewer members of the younger generations.

“The story of aging is changing in America,” she says. “We have cliff diving birth rates and low immigration. Also, we are an ageist society.”

Today 62 million adults ages 65 and older are living in the U.S., which is 18% of the population, according to the U.S. Census. In 30 years, 84 million adults ages 65 and older will make up an estimated 23% of the population.

With the recognition of how our population is structured, and how your on-farm team members reflect their generational trends, you can evaluate your communication.

Next Gen Insights

Lear shares trends about Generation X (birth years: 1965 to 1979), millennials (birth years: 1980 to 1994), and Generation Z (birth years: 1995 to 2012).

Members of Generation X can exhibit fierce independence. For example, they can have an aversion to traditional sales tactics.

“If a brand crosses them, they are hard to earn back as a customer,” she says. “It’s telling — the divorce rate doubled during the Gen X birth years.”

As another data point, 55% of startup founders are Gen X.

As for millennials, the rise of double income households really took off as millennials grew up.

“Millennials are collaborative, empowered, networked, risk averse and in search of meaning,” she says. “But America has more single parent households than anywhere else in the world. It’s one way to understand why work-life balance is at the forefront of recruitment and retention.”

For Generation Z, our present serves as the backdrop of their formative years. Already, Lear has seen how Gen X parents and Gen Z children have relationships rooted in friendship.

“They are highly influential over each other’s decision-making. For example, Gen Z will bring job offers to their parents to vet,” she says.

Lear continues with an example of how Generation Z makes decisions.

“They are showing how they can abandon any obsession of convenience with an obsession of optimization,” she says. “For example, a regular stationary bike is convenient versus a Peloton is synched with stats and analytics. It’s the expectation of personalization and customization.”

Lear gives an exercise to test your transgenerational communication.

“Look at processes, procedures and norms. What are you holding on that is a sacred cow? And then ask your team to think about where can we focus on that’s more useful and more productive for us?” Lear outlines. “You’ll identify priorities and open up how our team talks to one another.”

5 Business Principles That Define Success

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:31:01 GMT

As a child, Rich Redmond had a vision. He could picture himself playing Madison Square Garden and his drum skills vibrating across the radio waves. Redmond wasn’t an overnight success. He became a student of the drum and music industry. Through wins, setbacks and time, he created a no-nonsense system to supercharge your personal and professional life, whether you are a farmer or the drummer for Jason Aldean. His mantra:

C – Commitment: Dedicating energy to yourself, your craft and your customers.
R – Relationships: Navigating and nurturing the connections that inspire us to grow.
A – Attitude: The one thing that people will always remember about you and what will make or break any business venture.
S – Skill: Honing crucial skills for your business, while constantly developing new ones.
H – Hunger: Stoking the flames for success that burn in your belly!

Read more stories from the 2023 Top Producer Summit:

Preventative Maintenance for Your People: How to Reduce Turnover and Boost Morale

How to Run An Innovation Sprint on Your Farm

Take Time to Celebrate Accomplishments

Farming Boom or Bust in the Decade Ahead? How to Manage Price Cycles

Be Inspired by Five Remarkable Farm Operations

Food Inflation To Return to Pre-COVID Levels

Wed, 10 May 2023 13:41:36 GMT

In a recent report from Wells Fargo, chief ag economist Michael Swanson says the data is trending toward 0% to 4% food inflation by 2024.

“The consumer is going to be very happy– if the consumer is ever happy sometimes as there are perpetual grumblers–because they are going to see much lower food inflation,” Swanson says. “That doesn’t come without stress to the industry because food manufacturers and retailers still deal with trailing expenses.”

Swanson says we’ve likely seen the peak for food inflation last summer. What drove the up to 14% year-over-year food inflation since the COVID pandemic has been four key factors: transportation, labor, shipping and packaging.

(Farm Journal)

“What we saw for food inflation, it wasn’t a lack of ingredients. The American farmer really didn’t miss a beat,” Swanson said. “We had a little bit of a shock and dismay around the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what that was going to do to the world’s supply of grains and oil seeds but at no point were we really short ingredients. We were short the transportation, the labor, the shipping the packaging, and that’s been what’s driven the trends at this point.”

To illustrate how labor is the No. 1 factor in food costs, particularly for food eaten away from home, he highlights the difference in the food dollar spent and what percent goes to the farm gate level.

“It’s actually quite shocking. If you buy food at the supermarket, USDA data say only about 12 to 15% of what you spend in the supermarket represents farm level contribution. So almost 90 cents of the dollar is somewhere else. When you go to the restaurant, it’s almost in the 3% range. So when you’re buying food at the at the restaurant, literally almost nothing is going back to the farm level.”

(Farm Journal)

What else are the economists watching?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April payroll report showing wage growth slowing to pre-COVID.

“It’s not going down as much it’s going sideways,” Swanson says. “And since it’s going sideways and not up, that makes a big difference in the outlook.”

(Farm Journal)

The pace at which food inflation decreases is still a bit cloudy. Swanson is watching retail meat prices, and for example, month over month pork and poultry prices have decreased. He also notes dairy prices are coming down.

“Some of the big tickets are actually coming down. As we get towards the end of 2023 I would not be surprised to see food inflation running in the zero to 4% range,” he says.
The recent trends with food inflation may follow a pattern seen in recent history.

“Here’s a really surprising outlook: If things continue to trend like we see on corn soybean prices as we go into 2024 we might actually see retrenchment in overall food inflation. We saw that back in 2014 and 2015 as they came off the high spike of corn and soybean prices of 2012 and 2013,” Swanson says. “So this is a market that can be very, very difficult for the food suppliers because they can actually go negative at the retail level.”

One segment to watch is edible oils.

“Whatever happens in the edible oil complex impacts the soybean meal complex which impacts the corn/soybean planting rotations. There’s just no escaping that dynamic. When you think about edible oils, the renewable biodiesel initiative off the off the west coast enters the food/fuel dynamic that we were used to back during the ethanol buildout and edible oils had just extraordinary increase in expense. We went from a 25 cent per pound soybean oil to a 65 cent per pound soybean oil,” Swanson says.
He details edible oils go into baking, cooking, food service, pet food and more.

“One of the biggest open questions is what’s going to happen with the growth around renewable biodiesel initiative and does it move into the aviation space. And I guarantee you depending on what you’re betting and where you’re betting it, there’s a lot of very intense conversations about should I put $300 million into a bean crushing facility somewhere.”

And edible oils stands out as a segment driven by food demand, which is stable and predictable, as well as the emerging renewable fuels demand.

Food Prices Lower in March, but Still 8.5% Higher Than a Year Ago

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 19:15:30 GMT

Lower grocery prices highlighted the March Consumer Price Index, but the annual food inflation rate remains well above the all-items index.

All consumer prices were up 5% compared with last March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, the smallest 12-month measure since May 2021. Higher prices for shelter offset declines in energy, the report said.

Meanwhile, the 12-month food inflation measure was pegged at 8.5% in March. Grocery prices rose 8.4% over the past 12 months, the report said.

The index for cereals and bakery products rose 13.6% over the 12-month period ending in March, contrasted with just a 2.5% annual gain for fruits and vegetables.

Restaurant food inflation was measured at 8.8% over the past year in March, with full-service meals up 8% and limited-service meals up 7.9%.

Ups and Downs

The food index was unchanged in March compared with February, with the food at home (grocery) index falling 0.3%. That decline was the first for that index since September 2020, according to the report.

Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased from February to March. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs decreased by 1.4% in March as the index for eggs fell by 10.9%. The fruits and vegetables index declined 1.3% over the month, and the dairy and related products index decreased 0.1%, the report said.

The food away from home (restaurant) index rose 0.6% in March, the same as the previous two months, according to the report.

The inflation rate for full-service meals increased by 0.7% from February to March, and the index for limited-service meals increased by 0.5%, the report said.

Recession or Not: The Consumer Has Reached Their Breaking Point

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:39:40 GMT

Whether we are in a recession or not is to be determined, but I think we all can agree that we are feeling the impacts of a looming recession. Tanner Ehmke, a leading dairy economist with CoBank, says that we are not in a recession—not quite just yet.

“We’re going to be in one, probably soon,” he says. “That’s mixed news for those of us in agriculture. We want a strong consumer to buy our products. At the same time, we’re also competing for labor.”

Speaking of consumers, Ehmke says they are feeling the pinch every time they walk into the grocery store. The consumer has hit the level of how much price absorption they can take.

“We’ve hit that level,” Ehmke says. “The consumer is not going to take any more cost increase.”

The savings that the consumer was able to accumulate throughout the pandemic has dwindled thanks to higher fuel, higher rents, higher groceries and more.

“Through higher costs of everything now, those savings have been depleted,” Ehmke says. “Credit card debt is now going up. And that’s an indication for a lot of people that they’ve run out of cash.”

With all that being said, people no longer can absorb higher costs. Ehmke says that lighter foot traffic is seen in some grocery stores, while discount retailers have seen a significant increase in foot traffic.

“Even your wealthier consumers have decided that they cannot afford cost increases anymore,” he shares. “For their shopping, they’re trading down from branded products to private label store brands. They’re trading down from premium products to lower-priced commodity products. After they’ve done all of those things -- shifted retailers, shifted from brands to private label, shifted to commodity versus premium -- the next step then is for them to reduce how much volume they buy.”

Mike North, president with Ever.Ag, concurs with Ehmke and says that the looming recession is naturally top of mind for everyone. North also says that while consumers are very notably showing changes in spending, the dairy case has performed very well relative to other protein categories.

“Moreover, down trading in the food service universe can still include a lot of cheese as fine dining frequency is substituted with quick casual and delivery,” North says. “However, this may come at the expense of other fats/creams.”

Ehmke says it is going to be a balancing act between the farmers and processors going forward.

“You simply can’t pass that cost on to the consumer anymore,” he says. “It’s just going to compress margins.”

North says yes, the recession is a big story and advises producers to be mindful of normal seasonal demands that will taper into the new calendar year.

Employers Qualify for Tax Credit to Offset COVID-19 Paid Time Off

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 00:57:07 GMT

At this point in the pandemic, most employers have received a phone call that goes something like this. “Hi Boss, I was exposed to COVID-19. Do you want me to come in?” And in that moment, you run through 14,000 questions in your mind. Can we cover his or her schedule? Who had this person worked with before they knew they had been exposed? Can we afford to pay them for time spent at home? While those thoughts are going through your mind, your employee is worried about getting paid for required time off.

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) signed into law on March 18, 2020 provides that eligible employees are entitled to paid sick time because of COVID-19, and employers are eligible for a tax credit to offset the expense.

Who qualifies as an eligible employee, how much time do they get and at what rate? Under the FFCRA, employees are entitled to:

a. Up to 80 hours of paid sick leave at the employee’s regular rate of pay (up to a maximum of $511 per day) where the employee is unable to work because the employee is quarantined pursuant to government order, is advised by a health care provider to self-quarantine and/or experiencing COVID-19 symptoms and seeking a medical diagnosis; or

b. Up to 80 hours of paid sick leave at two-thirds the employee’s regular rate of pay (up to a maximum of $200 per day) because the employee must care for an individual subject to quarantine (pursuant to government order or advice of a health care provider), or to care for a child (under 18 years of age) whose school or child care provider is closed or unavailable for reasons related to COVID-19.

What is the tax credit for employers? The FFCRA provides eligible employers with payroll tax credits to cover 100% of the qualified sick leave wages and qualified family leave wages paid from April 1, 2020, through December 31, 2020.

The FFCRA payroll tax credit includes:

1) Qualified sick leave wages;

2) Qualified family wages;

3) Qualified health plan expenses; and

4) Medicare tax credit.

According to an advisory from tax accountancy CliftonLarsonAllen (CLA), qualified sick leave wages are wages an eligible employer is required to pay under FFCRA for paid sick leave. Qualified family leave wages are wages an eligible employer is required to pay under FFCRA for expanded family and medical leave.

The tax credits can be claimed three ways:

1. On the Form 941, Employer’s QUARTERLY Federal Tax Return;

2. Offsetting Federal employment tax deposits for the quarter (the employer must account for the reduction in deposits on the Form 941 for the quarter); or

3. Filing Form 7200, Advance Payment of Employer Credits Due to COVID-19.

CLA shares this example of how the claims process works.

Employer pays $15,000 in qualified sick leave wages and qualified family leave wages during the 3rd quarter of 2020. The employer is required to deposit $18,000 in Federal employment taxes (including taxes withheld from its employees) for the 3rd quarter of 2020. The employer may keep up to $15,000 of the $18,000 of taxes the employer was going to deposit but is required to deposit the remaining $3,000 on its required deposit date. The employer will account for the $15,000 when it files its Form 941 for the 3rd quarter of 2020.

For more information, including extended family and medical leave details included in the FFCRA contact your accountant.

California, to be First State to Mandate COVID-19 Workplace Safety Rules

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 20:34:59 GMT

The board of California’s Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) voted unanimously to implement a group of workplace protocols to protect employees from COVID-19. Rules that labor advocates have been pushing for since the spring. The protocols establish a baseline for how employers are required to protect their workers and allows Cal/OSHA to hold businesses accountable.

The new policy is pending review and public comment period but would apply to employers in most private and public sectors, including agriculture. According to the LA Times, the emergency standard is expected to take effect within 10 days and may be extended for up to 14 months.

Labor advocates began pushing for a governing set of workplace safety rules early this year following widespread coronavirus outbreaks among a low-wage workforce harvesting fresh produce. According to the Times, agricultural groups vigorously opposed particular provisions that would affect company-provided housing and transportation for farmworkers.

Meanwhile, many dairy producers in California and other places already have strict rules in place to protect their teams. Washington dairy farmer Dwayne Faber says that on their farm they’ve gone to temperature testing employees as they arrive to work as well as enforcing masks for those working close together. Additionally, Faber says they are working with a local testing site to test any employees that come in contact with the virus at home.

Other opponents of the new California law, including the California Chamber of Commerce and California Restaurant Assn., raise concerns about the feasibility, clarity and cost of enforcing the rules. Katie Hansen of the California Restaurant association says businesses are already taking “stringent measures” to keep their workforces safe.

Still, proponents of the new rules say widespread workforce safety enforcement is critical to reducing the spread of the virus.

“We can’t bring community spread under control unless we bring workplace spread under control,” said Maggie Robbins of Worksafe, to the LA Times. “This is a way to set legally enforceable standards that are consistent across the workforce.”

Under the new emergency regulations, employers not already covered by California’s Aerosol Transmissible Disease standard must:

Write and implement a COVID-19 Prevention Program
Identify COVID-19 hazards with help of employees and then correct them
Investigate COVID-19 cases, notify and provide testing to potentially exposed employees
Require physical distancing and mask wearing, improve ventilation, maximize outdoor air
Don’t allow workers return to worksite until quarantine ends, pay employees throughout quarantines
Report all outbreaks — three or more cases in two weeks — to public health department, provide continuous testing to all on-site employees. For 20 or more cases in 30 days, provide twice-a-week testing
In employer-provided housing, beds must be spaced six feet apart, no bunk beds, daily disinfection.
In employer-provided transportation, workers get screened before boarding, sit three feet apart, wear face coverings.

Earlier this month Politico reported that nationwide rules to enforce workplace safety against COVID-19 is a top priority for President-Elect Joe Biden.

“President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to issue mandatory workplace safety rules that employers must follow to protect workers from coronavirus exposure,” they report. “It’s likely to be one of his first big fights with American business and a test of how far he can go to create a national strategy to slow a pandemic that is still raging out of control.”

As part of his plan to combat the virus, Biden says he will direct his administration to issue the so-called emergency temporary standard, which would lay out specific precautions that employers must take to protect their workers from exposure to the virus, Politico reports.

Conservation Can Put Dollars In Dairy Farmers’ Pockets, Report Shows

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:55:56 GMT

A new report released on Monday, How conservation makes dairy farms more resilient, especially in a lean agricultural economy, addresses the successful adoption of conservation measures by four Pennsylvania dairy farmers.

Equally important, the report shows how financial and technical support provided by a loose coalition of partners in the food industry supply chain and others helped the farmers successfully bridge the divide that often exists between adopting conservation measures and making a return-on-investment.

“The farmers that we worked with all experienced savings and reduced costs based on labor, fuel costs, as well as improved herd health,” says Chris Sigmund, president of TeamAg Inc., an agriculture consulting firm in Pennsylvania with expertise in securing funding.

The Environmental Defense Fund and K·Coe Isom partnered to develop the report, which is available here: https://bit.ly/2qA9Z6n

Some of the key savings, by farmer, include:

Farmer A experienced several economic benefits from implementing conservation practices with assistance from EQIP and Ducks Unlimited. • A manure separator delivered significant benefits, including reduced mastitis, reduced bedding costs and reduced mortality. Cost savings included $1,000 per week in bedding costs, $51,000 per year in veterinary costs and $7,225 per year in reduced mortality.

Farmer B observed immediate water quality impacts from implementing low-cost conservation measures like no-till. • Farmer B experienced a significant yield increase from implementing no-till, which eliminated his need to purchase nearly $15,000 in feed per year. • Farmer B saw a reduction in veterinary visits and bills due to improved feed quality estimated at $2,000-3,000 per year.

Farmer C’s case provides an example of the significant value that grant and cost share programs like PennVest and NRCS’s EQIP program can provide by enabling farmers to implement these key conservation infrastructure projects.• Manure storage made a huge difference in Farmer C’s ability to get value out of manure, apply it when needed and when environmentally appropriate, and save on purchased feed by boosting yield.

Farmer D gained substantial monthly savings from some of his larger conservation implementations such as an anaerobic digester and manure separator, including 25,000 kW of energy per month from the digester and monthly savings of more than $3,000 from not buying wood shavings for bedding from the separator. • Transitioning to no-till led to numerous benefits, including estimated labor cost savings of $44,100 per year and fuel cost savings of $2,625 per year.

Case studies were done with each of the four farmers—whose operations vary from milking 40 cows to 750 cows. The studies focused on five of the most common conservation practices for reducing soil erosion and nutrient loss from dairy farms in Pennsylvania: manure storage, stream fencing, cover crops, conservation tillage and nutrient management.

Each of the farmers adopted one or more of the practices, which were implemented based on their respective conservation and nutrient management plans. The plans were the first thing each of the farms developed or refined, according to Lindsay Reames, with the Maryland and Virginia Milk Producers Cooperative Association.

She notes that, in her experience, dairy farmers often see the conservation gaps that exist on their operations – where they currently stand in the process of implementing measures that improve soil health and water quality and where they want to be. In that no-man’s land of the middle are the hurdles that dairy farmers often have to bridge to reach their conservation goals. These include contradictory or burdensome legislative policies, cumbersome application processes and paperwork, and high levels of out-of-pocket costs on the front end.

To that end, a number of groups and individuals helped the farmers, essentially funding 100% of the cost of the conservation and nutrient plans, for starters.

“Through the partnership with Turkey Hill Dairy and the Alliance for the Chesapeake Bay, we were able to get a conservation innovation grant for just under half a million dollars,” Reames adds.

With Sigmund and TeamAg’s help, additional funding totaling $1.5 million was secured for adopting conservation measures.

“We’re using that directly on our member farms to invest in practices such as manure storage, barnyard stabilization, planting buffers and other practices,” Reames says. “They’re going to directly impact the local streams and waterways within the community and downstream improve the quality of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed,” she adds

The Chesapeake Bay is a 64,299-square-mile drainage basin spanning six states and supporting a vibrant regional economy. Some researchers say the biggest threat to the bay’s long-term economic and environmental viability is pollution from rivers and streams, largely from nutrient and sediment runoff from farms.

The final analysis of the four case studies shows the economic benefits conservation practices can provide when viewed across the full farm budget, incorporating labor, herd health and yield impacts over time, and highlights the importance of good recordkeeping to take full advantage of economic benefits.

The report on the studies was a key topic of discussion at the Sustainable Agriculture Summit happening in Indianapolis this week, where the state’s dairy industry has grown aggressively in recent years including the arrival of Walmart’s first-ever milk facility in the state last year.

Financial support for the study was provided by The Campbell Foundation.

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