Soybean News

Beyond the Blame Game: Navigate the Mental Toll of Modern Ag

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 13:55:10 GMT

When market pressures mount, it is easy to succumb to the “blame game.” Yet, the most resilient operations are those that anchor themselves in a mission larger than the current balance sheet. For leaders like James Burgum and Lamar Steiger, coping with stress isn’t just about managing the books, it’s about managing the mindset.

The Many Hats of the Modern Producer

James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes the first step in managing stress is acknowledging the sheer weight of the roles farmers play.

“One of the things I did when I stepped into my role is an exercise where I said to our team, ‘Help me understand all the hats on the farm – farmworker, agronomist, grain merchandiser, mechanic, truck driver, snow removal lead, banker, economist,’” Burgum said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “You start to go down the list, and its dozens and dozens of roles that an individual farmer plays.”

By recognizing the complexity of these roles, Burgum argues that producers can move toward servant leadership—prioritizing the team’s needs.

“There are things that are much more important and much bigger than the challenges we’re wrestling with on the job every day,” Burgum says. “It’s hard to juggle all the balls, but at the end of the day, we want everyone on our team to make sure they get home at night and be there for their families.”

Choosing Abundance Over Scarcity

Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, learned about stress through the lens of his father, a man who seemed to face every possible setback: health crises, financial downturns and missed market peaks.

The farm struggled during times of high interest rates in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and his father was diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder, Guillain-Barre, that left him paralyzed for six months.

Still, his dad always had an attitude of abundance, not scarcity, Steiger says.

“With my brothers holding other obligations, I was left to milk the cows,” Steiger says. “We were so far behind, and all my dad would say is, ‘It could be worse.’”

Breaking the Silence

Eventually, his family lost the dairy. After hitting rock bottom and battling depression , Steiger realized that the “tough it out” mentality was a liability, not an asset.

“When the stresses pile up, you’ve got to find help,” Steiger says. “I wasn’t ‘man enough’ to step up and say, ‘Hey, something’s wrong here.’ I should have said, ‘Time out—this is not working.’”

Steiger’s advice for those feeling the weight of the current market is simple: Find your “who.” Whether it is a spouse, a neighbor or a professional, talking through the stress is the only way to separate your self-worth from the volatility of the markets.

“In agriculture, we’re so reliant on outside forces,” Steiger says. “You’ve got to have an attitude that it’s going to work out. As my Dad would say, ‘Well, we never missed a meal.’ That was his bottom line for ‘It’s okay.’”

From Constraints to Catalysts: How Ag Leaders Turn Hardships into Strategy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:19:04 GMT

In an industry defined by “one-year-at-a-time” cycles, the greatest threat to a growing operation isn’t just a market downturn—it’s the inertia that comes with size. Farm Journal CEO Prescott Shibles argues that long-term survival requires a rare blend of faith and agility. To maintain an entrepreneurial mindset, leaders must lean into “conviction” as the core of a strategy that survives the lows.

Here is how four industry leaders are turning today’s constraints into tomorrow’s differentiators.

1. Build when times are hard.

When Brent Smith, president and CEO of NewLeaf Symbiotics, joined the company in 2023, the grain market was entering a significant down cycle. While some saw a risky time to lead a startup, he saw an opportunity.

“I learned in my first startup that the best time to build a business is in hard times,” Smith said said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “Because if you can’t withstand tough times, you’re not going to survive long term.”

For Smith, survival meant doubling down on the company’s core: science. Despite the pressure to cut costs, NewLeaf continues to spend half of its operating expenses on science.

“It would be very easy to peel that back,” he admits. “But we focused on projects that make the most impact the quickest, while keeping an eye on the long-term innovation in our pipeline.”

2. Control what you can control.

Farmers face the ultimate constraint every year: the weather. Scott Beck, president of Beck’s Hybrids, recalls the planting crisis of 2019 when constant rains kept tractors out of the fields well into May.

“I was concerned for our customers not being able to plant, but also for us not being able to plant our seed for the next year,” Beck says. “There was nothing that we could do to control the weather, but we could control how we interacted with our customers.”

Rather than retreating, the Beck’s team focused on transparency and empathy, using video series to connect with farmers and even forming small groups for prayer and support. Ultimately, they wanted farmers to know they cared and were there to support them however they could.

Despite the financial reality of what could happen if farmers didn’t plant and returned seed, Beck’s decided their course of action would not include employee layoffs. Instead, they prepared to sell land to protect their people.

“Fortunately, the weather broke and everybody was able to get planted,” he says. “Then the second miracle happened. We had the second warmest September on record, and that’s what brought the crop through to enable 2019 to not turn out as bad as it started.”

3. Turn disadvantages into advantages.

In 2014, Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, was tasked with a monumental challenge: helping Walmart reinvent its beef supply chain. At the time, the retail giant was at a disadvantage, forced to accept whatever the major meatpackers provided.

Steiger’s strategy was to turn that lack of control into a new kind of independence.

“I convinced the Walmart team to go around the traditional supply chain,” Steiger says. Today, Walmart sources 28% of its beef from its own “farm-to-table” supply chain.

There’s no question that decision was really good for Walmart. But Steiger says it was also really good for him personally.

“It reminded me that no matter how big you are, there are always challenges,” he says.

4. Create “white space” for the future.

When the day-to-day tasks of an operation become overwhelming, long-term strategy is often the first thing to go. James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes leaders must intentionally carve out “white space” for their teams.

“It’s important to find ways where people can actually spend their time working on the business, not just in the business,” he says.

By protecting time for team members to execute ideas that are three to five years out, Burgum manages the tension between short-term urgency and long-term viability.

“It’s hard to step away from the daily fires you’ll face in your operation, but it’s important,” he adds. “How we manage that tension of short term and long term is creating that white space and making sure that we consciously work on the business.

The Long Game

Ultimately, resilience in agriculture is about knowing when to push and when to pivot.

“You have to know when to put the gas down, and you need to know when to tap the brake,” Smith says. “And regardless of what you are doing, you need to stay focused on what you’re doing.”

Whether it is investing in science during a downturn or choosing customer empathy over the bottom line, these leaders say constraints don’t have to be roadblocks; they can be the very catalysts that drive an operation forward.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 21:41:51 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

USDA Trade Team Returns from Malaysia with a Focus on These Key Ag Products

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 13:39:24 GMT

As a follow up to the Oct. 26, 2025, trade deal announced by President Donald Trump, the USDA trade team just returned from a recent Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Producers (TRUMP) mission.

Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, says there were good, productive meetings toward elevating the relationship between the U.S. and Malaysia, which ranks as the 26^th largest ag trade market.

“These TRUMP missions were one of the aspects of [Agriculture] Secretary [Brooke] Rollins’ and my three-point plan to really ramp up U.S. agricultural exports. So, the president’s done a tremendous job of negotiating these new agreements around the world, and our job is to get on the ground with farmers, with U.S. agribusinesses, and start to make deals happen,” Lindberg says. “The analogy I’ve been using is the president is opening the door, and it’s our job to drive a bus through it.”

The trip to Malaysia had a delegation of 16 agribusinesses and trade associations. In recent years, the biggest U.S. agricultural exports to Malaysia have been soybeans, dairy products, cotton, vegetables and nuts.

“The whole barnyard kind of came with us this time around, because one of the things that the U.S. trade representative’s team and we did with USDA and the White House was we actually got Malaysia to agree that the U.S. food system is safe, and that’s in the language of the agreement,” he says.

Of the specific categories he shared, there was progress on many fronts including:

Soybeans — In 2024, Malaysia imported almost 452 metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Lindberg says U.S. leaders met with the largest soy crush facility, and he sees opportunities for growth.
Dairy — In total for 2024, Malaysia imported $118 million in dairy products. “We’ve seen a tremendous increase in dairy access and opportunities there, 23% growth this past year for dairy,” Lindberg says.
Ethanol — “We had a great conversation around ethanol opportunities,” Lindberg says. “Malaysia is a regional distributor of fuels, and so working ethanol into the fuel supply chain that can really spread throughout the ASEAN region, a lot of good opportunities out there.”
Beef — “We visited a very successful restaurant group in Malaysia that’s been begging for U.S. beef for a long time,” Lindberg says. “They’ve actually invested in a beef processing plant in the United States to get their beef halal certified so that they’re ready to go for when the actual duties shift and the regulations come into full force.”

Lindberg says a key tenant of the trade deal is to reduce or eliminate all tariffs.

“A lot of our producer groups haven’t been able to compete on a level playing field in Malaysia in the past, and now they have that access and that opportunity,” he explains. “When our groups can compete on a level playing field, I think we win more often than we lose.”

Next steps include a Malaysian delegation visiting Washington, D.C., next week.

“We’re marching forward here with a great opportunity on the horizon. I think it’s progressing nicely,” Lindberg says. “These rapid-response missions are largely driven by building these kind of new opportunities that really didn’t exist yesterday and exist today. In the next couple months, we’ll see full implementation of the deal, and that’ll really be the access-opening opportunity for our producers.”

Looking ahead this year, Lindberg says the USDA trade team is “hyperfocused” on fixing the agricultural trade deficit. With 2026 agribusiness trade missions announced for Indonesia, Philippines, Turkey, Australia and New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam, he highlights time spent in Southeast Asia is a strategy to build trade in a region with growing GDP and positive consumption trends for U.S. agricultural goods.

“It’s going to be a dynamic year for U.S. trade,” Lindberg says. “I keep saying to folks: Trade agreements are great, but sales are the goal.”

Let Mother Nature Do The Talking

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:04:41 GMT

Planting soybeans early is increasingly a norm for farmers in the Midwest, but research from Iowa State suggests there’s a fine line between early and too early.

According to Iowa State University Extension cropping systems specialist Mark Licht, the decision on when to start planting isn’t found on a calendar.

“When we think about planting, we really should be thinking about soil conditions,” Licht says. “Are the soils fit? What’s the moisture of those soils? We don’t want them too wet, because that causes compaction.”

Know Your Conditions And The Forecast

Licht urges growers to watch for soil temperatures of about 50°F and rising, before heading to fields. The focus should be on “fit” soils –not too wet to avoid compaction from wheel traffic and down pressure. He also advises checking the weather outlook for three or four days after planting.

“Really, the first 12 to 24 hours are the most important, because that’s when the seed is imbibing water… if it’s kind of a cold water, the shock can disrupt cell membranes and cause germination issues down the road,” he warns.

Planting into cold, moisture-saturated ground doesn’t just slow things down—it also invites seedling diseases and the potential for a costly replant, which carries an automatic yield penalty.

Finding the Planting Sweet Spot

While an “ultra-early” trend of planting soybeans in March has gained traction in some farming circles, Licht’s data suggests it’s not worth the gamble. In Iowa field trials, mid-March planting showed farmers saw a reduction in final stands, gained only a meager three days in emergence and had no yield increase.

“Planting early is good, but not too early… April 15 to May 20 [in Iowa] is probably about the sweet spot,” he says.

Beyond that timing, though, yield penalties usually start to mount. Survey data from Iowa farmers show losses “anywhere from a .2 to a .5 bushel per acre per day” as planting is delayed after May 20, Licht reports.

The Corn Pivot: When to Switch Gears?

As planting season progresses, your strategy should shift from “when to start” to “what to prioritize.” The calendar does come into play.

Licht notes that if farmers in Iowa can wrap up both corn and soybeans by mid-May, the planting order for the two crops is flexible.

“But if we can’t get everything planted timely, then we should prioritize planting corn timely, because it has a much steeper penalty for being planted late, compared to soybeans,” Licht says.

Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, adds some perspective for those farmers who might feel behind by the time May arrives if they aren’t in the field. In central Illinois, May-planted corn has actually outperformed April plantings for the past three consecutive years due to better moisture availability.

Still, Ferrie says: “My advice for farmers here in central Illinois is if the ground is fit in April, plant some corn.”

But he also cautions against forcing the issue, as May can provide benefits.

“We never know how the rest of the year will play out,” Ferrie says. “Breaking the planting window up is a good way to mitigate risk and take the jam out of the fall of having everything ready at the same time.”

Osler Ortez, Ohio State Extension corn specialist, agrees that flexibility is key especially for those farmers with a single planter. “Focus on corn then [when conditions are right]. Once you get it planted, you can go back to finish up soybeans,” he says.

Hear more of Mark Licht’s perspective at YouTube on the Do’s and Dont’s of Early Soybean Planting here .

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:29 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

As Markets Search for Clarity, USDA Says NASS Will Issue Key Reports in November Despite Government Shutdown

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 16:30:12 GMT

The federal government’s continued shutdown is no longer just a Washington standoff — it’s becoming a real-world problem for farmers and ranchers. As the days drag on without resolution, three Kansas State University economists warn that even with FSA offices back open, the absence of key USDA reports is rippling through every corner of the ag economy, from commodity markets to cattle prices and farm-level business planning.

But on Friday, USDA-NASS issued a bit of surprise. The agency says NASS will release key data in November for the following reports , some with a delay:

Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)
Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)
Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production report on Nov. 14.

With much of the agency still furloughed, there are questions regarding how NASS will have enough staff to provide those key reports. The release didn’t offer any additional details, only saying those key reports will be released in November.

However, there are a few key reports still missing, which includes daily flash sales reports and weekly export sales information.

A Data Blackout Hits the Heart of Agriculture

Until now, the shutdown has silenced the regular flow of government data that producers, analysts and traders depend on — reports like the weekly export sales, crop progress and Cattle on Feed updates, as well as the highly anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

“The fact that the government is still shut down means we aren’t getting those weekly export sales reports,” says Allen Featherstone, head of the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. “That’s a real problem because we rely on that information to confirm what’s actually happening in the market.”

Is China Actually Buying? The Absence of Flash Sales Reports Creates Confusion

With the U.S. and China negotiating renewed agricultural trade commitments , there are fresh promises of more purchases in the weeks and months ahead. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.

Featherstone notes that while China claims it is buying U.S. soybeans, the lack of USDA verification makes it difficult to gauge the truth and confirm those buys are happening. And in USDA’s announcement Friday, there was no indication the flash sales and weekly export sales will resume.

“Earlier this week, China reportedly purchased three vessels, about 180,000 metric tons, but not having official data from USDA is a major issue,” he says. “Tracking purchases becomes challenging when the normal reporting mechanisms are down.”

Despite some optimism around U.S.-China trade progress, Featherstone says markets are hesitant to believe much until concrete export numbers appear.

“If China doesn’t come through, that will lead to more negativity in prices given the size of this year’s crop,” he says. “China imports roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans, and if they don’t buy from us, that’s a big problem.”

Featherstone emphasizes the importance of diversifying U.S. export markets.

“We need to broaden who’s buying our products,” he says. “Relying too heavily on one trade partner makes us vulnerable, and this shutdown is a reminder of just how fragile that system can be when government data and diplomacy both stall.”

No November WASDE?

While some private companies attempt to replicate USDA’s data models, those efforts often fall short, according to Terry Griffin, K-State’s precision agriculture economist.

“We’re not likely to have a November WASDE because all the footwork that leads up to it hasn’t happened,” Griffin explains. “Even if the shutdown ends this weekend, that report won’t be ready. There’s just too much groundwork that hasn’t been done.”

He says the lack of USDA reports has forced brokers, trading firms and agribusinesses to depend on private estimates that vary widely.

“They’ve become so reliant on USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service that they’re struggling right now to do their business,” Griffin says. “It’s throwing off everything from national models to local crop forecasts.”

Griffin also points out the shutdown’s impact reaches beyond the boardroom and into academia.

“We have a graduate student working on a peanut production forecasting model, and she’s using crop progress data that come out every week,” he explains. “Without those reports, she can’t validate her model. The data blackout affects research, innovation and business planning all at once.”

Cattle Producers Face Growing Uncertainty

The shutdown’s effects extend deeply into the livestock sector, where missing data is already creating confusion and volatility. Glynn Tonsor, K-State livestock economist, says the absence of reports like Cattle on Feed and slaughter estimates makes it difficult to assess market fundamentals.

“The Cattle on Feed Report is something we normally get monthly. Historically, it has a steer and heifer breakdown, which would be quite useful at the moment as the most recent insight about whether we’re expanding the herd or not, and we’re not going to have that detail,” says Tonsor. “There’s also been a lot of discussion about beef prices and some accusations or desires to make those lower, and we’re actually already behind on what the beef price is in this country. So there’s lots of examples that we could give you that are not just livestock and not just crops. And the longer the shutdown goes, the longer those data gaps exist and build, the harder it is for anybody, whether it’s an academic like us up here or private sector or individual producers, to adjust.”

He notes while we did see life in the cattle market this week, if you look at what happened since President Trump made comments about cattle prices being too high , the cattle market has pulled back significantly in recent weeks.

“Roughly $200 per head has come off the value of cattle in just 10 days,” Tonsor says. “If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re still positioned for 2025 to be a good year, but uncertainty is the biggest risk right now. Anything that elevates uncertainty delays long-term investments, whether that’s expanding the herd or making capital improvements.”

That uncertainty isn’t only about market data. Tonsor says the political noise out of Washington, including renewed calls for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), adds to the confusion.

“Taste remains the main driver of beef demand,” he says. “Origin and traceability rank much lower for the average consumer. There are niche opportunities, but for most people, it’s not what decides their protein purchases.”

A Cloud of Uncertainty Over Rural America

For now, K-State’s economists agree on one thing: The shutdown’s ripple effects are growing with every passing day. From grain markets to livestock pricing, from academic research to on-farm decision-making, the absence of reliable government data leaves agriculture flying blind.

“The longer the shutdown goes, the more those data gaps build,” Tonsor says. “And the harder it becomes for anyone, whether you’re an academic, a trader or a producer, to adjust.”

Political Blame Game in Washington

The political blame game continues in Washington, and it’s creating a stalemate. The Democrats are blaming the GOP, and the GOP is blaming the Democrats, both claiming the other party doesn’t care about every day Americans, otherwise the other side would make concessions to reopen the government.

House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., released a statement on Friday, the day before SNAP benefits are set to expire, saying the prolonged government shutdown is caused by Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

“Because Senate Democrats insist on keeping the federal government shut down, more than 40 million Americans — including children, seniors, veterans and military families — will not receive their November SNAP benefits beginning this weekend. The No. 2 House Democrat acknowledged that suffering families are their ‘leverage’, confirming that this is a political choice.”

U.S. Representative Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Ranking Member of the House Ag Committee, says the onus falls on President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans.

“Secretary Rollins said one honest thing today: The government is failing the American people. Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. The Trump administration has the legal authority and funds necessary to get November SNAP benefits out the door. They are illegally withholding food from 42 million Americans, and it is shameful,” said Craig in a statement on Friday.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the fallout extends well beyond the Capitol. From families losing access to food assistance to disruptions in beef and soybean markets, Vaden warns that the consequences are real and immediate.

In an interview on “AgriTalk,” Vaden accuses congressional Democrats of blocking a “clean continuing resolution” and says the resulting gridlock could harm both consumers and producers.

“If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend,” Vaden says. “We shouldn’t be playing politics with people’s lives and people’s dinner tables.”

SNAP and WIC Funding Hang in the Balance

Vaden says USDA manages to keep the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program funded for now by reallocating money from other programs. But the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which costs about $9 billion each month, has no such cushion.

“When it comes to SNAP, we’re talking about more than 9 billion — with a B — dollars,” he explains. “We don’t have that kind of money lying around here at USDA. The contingency fund people talk about is nowhere close to that amount, and it’s meant for natural disasters. We surely don’t want to be spending that and then hoping there’s no hurricane while Congress continues this shutdown.”

Without congressional action, Vaden says 40 million Americans might not receive their grocery benefits at the start of November — a moment when both food demand and household strain typically rise ahead of the holidays.

“That’s 9 billion dollars of groceries,” Vaden emphasizes. “And those groceries include beef, pork and poultry. These are markets that are sensitive to even a 1% shift in demand.”

“A Lump of Coal” for the Holidays

As the shutdown looms, Vaden says the timing is especially painful.

“We’re heading into the holiday season; it’s supposed to be a time of good cheer,” he says. “Unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Representative Jeffries are giving everybody a lump of coal. This needs to stop. We shouldn’t be playing games with people’s lives.”

He adds that USDA can move quickly once Congress passes appropriations.

“You want people to receive their SNAP benefits? It’s real simple,” Vaden says. “Give us our normal appropriations, and USDA will do what it does so well: get those benefits onto people’s cards quickly and efficiently.”

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:25 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:48:44 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:35:14 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.

Do You Have to Roast High Oleic Soybeans?

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Dairy producers and nutritionists nationwide are embracing high oleic soybeans for their unique fatty acid profile, allowing for extra dietary energy without negatively impacting milkfat synthesis.

In addition to being high in desirable oleic acid, these “magic” beans are low in linoleic acid. Conventional soybeans are relatively high in linoleic acid, a polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) that can disrupt rumen microbial function and depress milkfat production.

With less PUFAs in the ration, higher feeding rates of high oleic soybeans are possible -- typically around 6 pounds per cow per day – versus conventional soybeans. Producers feeding high oleic soybean report that they are able to reduce or eliminate fat supplements like palm fat, make rations simpler and less costly.

Whether conventional or high oleic, roasting soybeans makes them more palatable to cows, boosts bypass protein levels, and prevents rancidity. Roasting also denatures trypsin inhibitors and urease, making it possible to add urea to supply non-protein nitrogen.

But on-farm roasting requires extra labor, specialized equipment, and possibly separate storage facilities. Roasting also creates about 10% shrink and costs an estimated $35-50 per ton.

So, is it absolutely essential to roast high oleic soybeans? The short answer is no, according to Bill Mahanna, Global Nutritional Sciences Manager for Pioneer Seeds, developers and suppliers of Plenish® high oleic soybeans. Mahanna said studies have shown that ground, raw Plenish soybeans economically increased dietary energy and milkfat yield without negatively affecting dry matter intake.

The key is in the grinding. He advised that raw Plenish soybeans be fractured into at least quarters via grinding or rolling, as the same benefits were not conferred when they were fed whole.

But Mahanna advised that roasting Plenish beans is still preferable. He recommended exploring options to contract with local mills to do the roasting if it is not practical on-farm. In some regions, “mobile” roasters who visit farms on a regular route are also an evolving option.

Your Next Read: How Feed Restriction Taps the Brakes on Mammary Function

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

Is “Soylage” in Your Dairy’s Future?

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:30:00 GMT

You may have never heard of it, or you or your neighbor might already be doing it. Making silage out of soybeans is highly possible, and may be a growing trend in homegrown dairy forage production.

Michigan State University Extension researchers share in this bulletin that soybeans actually were initially used as a forage crop in the United States. And more than two decades ago, University of Wisconsin Forage Professor Emeritus Dan Undersander published advice on utilizing soybeans for hay or silage.

Both of those documents focused on soybean silage as a rescue method to salvage a damaged crop; as an emergency option to address forage shortages; or to utilize prevented planting acres that were planted to a cover crop. But other dairy producers are actively planting soybeans with the intention of harvesting them for forage.

On a recent episode of the “Soybean School” podcast, Jim MacEwen with MacEwen Agricentre, Inc., Maxville, Ontario, Canada explained how dairy producers in his region regularly grow soybean silage. He said the flat, clay soils of eastern Ontario are not conducive to growing high-quality alfalfa, and soybean silage provides a worthy alternative for high-quality, high-protein dairy silage.

“We’re growing a forage crop; we’re not growing a grain crop. That’s a mindset shift we have to make,” advised MacEwen. “That means seeding is more like alfalfa and less like conventional soybeans.”

While solid seeding would be ideal, he suggested 15-inch rows provide a good balance between plant density and the ability to get through the field for fungicide and weed control applications. That fungicide is especially important to prevent white mold, which MacEwen warned will ruin the quality and palatability of forage soybeans because it will cause the stems to die prematurely.

The seeding rate is typically higher than that of grain soybeans. MacEwen said producers in his area typically seed silage beans at 190,000-205,000 seeds per acre.

He said compared to grain soybeans, growers of forage soybeans typically select varieties with longer maturities, ranging from about 2.7 to 3.2. Those longer-day beans will typically grow taller and yield more tonnage, but he said the harvesting window can be fussy.

“One big mistake we make with growing beans for silage is the harvesting of them – we wait way too long,” MacEwen advised. “Now that we’ve learned more, we can pretty much set our calendars by it – around August 20-25 is when we are cutting our beans, as soon as the top node is done flowering.”

Harvesting soybeans for silage is a bit of a cross between making hay and making silage. It requires cutting the wet plants and laying them down to dry for a few days before merging, chopping, and blowing into a bag or bunker. The Michigan State advisors recommended a 3/8-inch cut on the chopper.

Whole-plant moisture of about 65% appears to be the sweet spot for optimum ensiling. And like making hay, the cutting and ensiling window is highly sensitive to humidity and precipitation. In terms of yield, Undersander noted soybeans are capable of producing 4 to 5 tons of forage per acre.

Among the drawbacks of producing soybean silage are the fact that the high oil content of soybeans can interfere with fermentation if the crop gets too mature. Careful attention must also be paid to the crop protection products, including any seed treatment used before it went into the ground. Some chemicals are not approved for forage feeding at all; others have prescribed intervals between application and harvest.

Soybean silage is also not especially palatable to cows. This challenge can be remedied by ensiling or feeding it concurrently with a grass forage like corn or sorghum. On its own, it can make up 15 to 20% of a dairy ration without impeding animal intake or milk production, according to the Michigan State researchers.

Changes in soybean genetics also may be encouraging broader adoption of soybean silage. Bill Mahanna, Global Nutritional Sciences Manager with Pioneer Seeds, said the advent of high oleic soybeans creates more useful soybean silage hybrid choices because their fatty acid profile is more conducive to milkfat production. The result would be a more nutritionally valuable silage that could simplify dairy rations with fewer ingredients.

Mahanna added that with these benefits, “soylage” might become a more attractive crop to grow than alfalfa haylage. The only caveat is that oil is deposited late in the maturation process of the soybean, so high oleic soylage would not contain the same oil energy found in full-fat soybeans.

Your Next Read: How to Keep Good Hay From Going Bad: Barn Storage Tips That Protect its Quality and Value

Mark Carney’s Liberal Win: What It Means for Canadian Agriculture and U.S. Relations

Fri, 02 May 2025 18:12:04 GMT

America’s neighbor to the north has elected a new leader. The result is not a huge surprise to farmers across Canada, but it’s fair to say Liberal Party leader and new Prime Minister Mark Carney likely wasn’t many farmers’ first choice, either.

“I would say farmers are frustrated with the track record of what the (Liberal) Party’s done for agriculture over the last 12 years, and they are probably pretty concerned if they’ll see any change over the next four years,” says Saskatchewan farmer Kristjan Hebert when asked how his farming brethren felt about the result.

Shaun Haney, founder of RealAgriculture and host of RealAg Radio , thinks the aggressive rhetoric from President Donald Trump around the U.S. possibly annexing Canada as the 51st state had an impact. The Conservatives had a large lead in many polls leading up to the election, but there was a seismic shift as Election Day approached.

“The Conservatives couldn’t get out of the trough of many Canadians making the assumption they were just going to roll over to President Trump, which I don’t think was true but definitely was the branding they were labeled with, and now Mark Carney’s first election is over and he’s going to be the prime minister,” he says.

(iStock/Lori Hays)

If there is a silver lining for conservative-leaning Canadian farmers, Haney views Carney as better equipped to manage the high-wire tightrope walk that is dealing with Trump. The U.S. President did back away from the 51st state rhetoric post-election, and the two men share similar backgrounds in global finance. There appears to be a degree of respect between the two.

“I think (Carney) has the opportunity to get some respect (from Trump) in the sense that he’s worked in those circles, but he has been very pro on the climate file, which he backed off during the election. He’s going to want to park that if he’s going to stay out of some of the ire of President Trump,” Haney adds.

Haney talked about the Canadian Election results on AgriTalk today. You can listen to the “Free for all Friday” discussion here:

From the farmer point of view, Hebert says there are actually a few Trump policies that he and many Canadian farmers support; he just wants more respect from the U.S. leader.

“I think most (Canadian farmers) would argue he has enough things to right on his own ship before he needs to worry about everybody else’s,” he says.

One ag market that may become a political football is the dairy industry. There is a lot of shared interests between the two countries in that realm, and Canada has slapped a protectionist 200% tariff on U.S. dairy exports for years, as Dairy Herd Management editor Karen Bohnert wrote in an analysis piece in March.

“Dairy’s going to be really fascinating,” Haney says. “One of the outcomes of the election is the Liberals are going to need support from some of the other parties. That’s going to come from the New Democratic Party or it’s going to come from The Bloc Quebecois, which is based in Quebec. And where is the Canadian Dairy lobby the strongest? Well, it’s in Quebec. So, it’s going to be really fascinating to see where they go on dairy negotiations.”

Another industry with close cross-border ties is the farm equipment manufacturing world. The tariff situation has hit that market with brute force. Many farmers are delaying purchases of new tractors, combines and sprayers until the situation clears up. Manufacturers have responded by laying off factory workers and slowing production of new machines.

An example of the cross-border journey of one piece of agriculture equipment from raw material to delivery on the farm.

(AEM)

RELATED - From the Factory to Your Fields: Where Farm Equipment Is Made

“Six or seven years ago, spending was full bore and it was a good time (in the industry),” Hebert says. “Right now, operations are really looking for efficiencies, and that includes asset turnover, capital utilization and the efficiency of production models. You’re going to see producers really focus on using every dollar to maximize efficiency because the margins just aren’t wide enough right now.”

Haney hopes both countries can come to the table and realize a united North America is stronger than one divided.

“This is a critical trading relationship and economic partnership between two countries that neighbor each other; there are bigger fish to fry,” he says. “China, Brazil and India — those are the countries where we need to be working together and focusing on a partnership, rather than battling each other.”

Your Next Read: Economists Fear Trade War Will Push Agriculture Deeper Into a Recession

High Oleic Soybeans: Not Just for Salad Anymore

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 17:19:25 GMT

A crop that was initially developed for the human food market is now being served up in heaping portions to the humble dairy cow.

High oleic soybeans were born out of the human nutrition movement away from trans fats and partially hydrogenated oils in the early 2000s. Through plant breeding and genetic modification, soybean varieties with more monounsaturated fat (oleic acid) and less saturated fat were developed.

The result was an oil with healthier fats and a longer shelf life that did not require hydrogenation, and was also more heat stable with a longer “fry life.”

Then, voila! Dairy nutritionists caught onto the fact that those same properties made the fat in those soybeans more rumen-friendly and less prone to biohydrogenation in the rumen. The result: the ability to feed more rumen-available unsaturated fat with less risk for milk fat depression and greater energy efficiency for the cow.

“We’ve been feeding high oleic soybeans since about 2017, but recently there has been an explosion of interest from dairy nutritionists on how to utilize these on-farm,” said Dr. Kevin Harvatine, Professor of Nutritional Physiology at Penn State University. “It’s by far the number-one thing I’ve been getting questions on in the last year and a half or so.”

Harvatine shared his insights on the unique feedstuff on a recent episode of the “Real Science Lecture Series” by Balchem. He described feeding high oleic versus conventional soybeans as a “no-brainer,” thanks to the reduced risk for milk fat depression that they afford.

What sort of production response can be expected from feeding high oleic soybeans? Harvatine said like nearly every question in dairy nutrition, “it depends.” But a study published in the Journal of Dairy Science showed an average increase in milk fat of 65 grams/cow/day at a 5% feeding rate.

Another study estimated an improvement in income over feed cost of 15-20₵/head/day, even factoring in a 50₵/bushel premium on the high oleic soybeans.

From a production standpoint, Harvatine cautioned that growing conditions and seasonality of the crop can cause the fat concentration in the beans to swing from year to year. “We know that higher temperatures during seed filling can increase the oil concentration,” he shared. “Double-crop beans are filling in cooler temperatures, and are expected to have a slightly lower fat concentration.”

But he’s a big fan of the opportunity to produce “home-grown” fats, from both an economic and quality control standpoint. “We can really drive profitability when we have home-grown feeds,” he noted. “Since our fat prices have been up recently, this brings a really neat opportunity to the dairy.”

Now, in addition to growing excellent energy and digestible fiber sources, it is possible to also grow the fat, which also can fit squarely into crop rotations with those other crops like corn. “Here we have a nitrogen-fixing plant that can work well into some crop rotations, depending on the situation,” he said.

Finally, while dietary fat and milk fat production may be the primary objectives for feeding high-oleic soybeans, Harvatine cautioned not to forget about value in protein that they also bring to the table.

“Soybeans have a big impact on your metabolizable protein and amino acid absorption that has a large impact on milk protein yield,” he advised. “When you’re least-costing a ration, be careful to do it based on both the fatty acid and protein/amino acid balancing that they provide.”

Harvatine continued, “If you’re feeding these beans, you can’t be feeding them just for fat and thinking about milk fat. You need to also be thinking about them as an integral part of your protein balancing.”

Your Next Read: Unlocking the Secrets to Optimal Dairy Production: A 7-Pound Milestone

Another Week of Major Planting Progress Wraps Up April

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:52:25 GMT

At this point in April, the majority of the farmers have buckled in for spring planting. And with another week of favorable conditions in the tractor’s rearview mirror, USDA has released the latest update on planting progress.

As of April 27, the report calculates 24% of corn and 18% of soybeans are in the ground. That’s up from 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans at this time last week.

The most progress since the last report goes to:
Corn

North Carolina (18% gain)
Minnesota (17% gain)
Iowa, Tennessee and South Dakota (16% gain)

Soybeans

Mississippi (19% gain)
Iowa and Louisiana (14% gain)
Arkansas (13% gain)

Progress up to this point is right on track with last year — with corn 1% behind and soybeans 1% ahead of the 2024 numbers.

Good Conditions To Go Around
With warm, sunny weather and rain where it’s needed, farmers are starting to feel cautiously optimistic for what’s ahead this growing season.

Started beans today. I thought the conditions were great before the rain the other day, even better now. After the last 2 wet miserable planting seasons I'll take it. Hopefully I don't jink myself #plant25 #notill pic.twitter.com/B3azISX2PF
— Bryan Biegler (@BryanBiegs) April 26, 2025

This oughta ease some drought concerns for a while around here. Already double what the forecast was pic.twitter.com/ENOizKjJGu
— Jacob Birklid (@NDSodbuster) April 28, 2025

In fact, conditions have been so good, some growers (like this Minnesota farmer) are way ahead of schedule.

And just like that, 2025 corn is planted. I can only remember being done with corn in April once before. #plant25 @MSP_Traffic pic.twitter.com/kBzZVPpxEz
— Shawn Anderson (@AndersonSM24680) April 27, 2025

They might even be wondering, “What’s the catch?”

It will either be a bin buster or a drought. It will be one or the other, I have not seen ground work up this nice in several years pic.twitter.com/klaAIP5GHx
— Greg Zimpleman (@gregzimpleman) April 27, 2025

Maybe it’s the ongoing windy conditions .

Planting soybeans into a great stand of rye. You can see the dirt blowing in the distance.

38mph wind gusts at the moment pic.twitter.com/JqipfrVtFk
— Ben Longlet 🇺🇸🌽🌱 (@blonglet) April 26, 2025

Or the forecast for the week ahead.

Let’s get crackin’! But actually let’s wait until after all this predicted hail tomorrow night…. pic.twitter.com/Zky90AX0x8
— Nicole Stecklein (@NicoleStecklein) April 27, 2025

🚨Here's our updated thinking for severe weather threats on Tuesday. Greatest timeframe of concern is from 1PM - 9PM ET. All hazards on the table. pic.twitter.com/WjSUuScifW
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 27, 2025

Whether you’ll be making progress this week, or on a severe weather delay, take a lesson from this farmer-in-training. Grab a snack, pet your dog and catch your breath.

Tractor naps were the best pic.twitter.com/bzP1IF0798
— C Bar J (@CbarJRanch) April 27, 2025

Your Next Read: Want to Boost Soybean Yields But Not Costs? Sunlight Can Help

Promising Potential? Why India Poses the Biggest Opportunity for Trade, But Also the Biggest Challenge

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 15:45:47 GMT

As trade tensions continue to impact both commodity and financial markets, the White House says the Trump administration is making progress on additional trade deals. The news comes as Vice President JD Vance was in the middle of a four-day visit to India, with both countries saying they had made progress in negotiating a bilateral trade deal. Delhi hopes this deal will help it avoid higher tariffs.

Vance announced the U.S. and India have “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.” He called it a “vital step,” saying it sets a roadmap toward a final deal.

India is just one of several trade deals in the works, according to the Trump administration. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday the Trump administration now has “18 proposals on paper” for trade deals.

“You have Secretary Bessent, Secretary Lutnick, Ambassador Greer, NEC Director Hassett and Peter Navarro, the entire trade team meeting with 34 countries this week alone,” Leavitt said in the press briefing. “We are moving at Trump speed to ensure these deals are made on behalf of the American worker and the American people.”

Leavitt also announced “the president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China.”

The Wall Street Journal reported the White House is considering slashing tariffs in order to de-escalate the trade war. Currently, tariffs are at 145%, but the White House isn’t considering cutting those to zero. Instead, the Wall Street Journal reports those tariffs will likely fall anywhere between 50% to 65%.

However, Treasury Secretary Bessent declined to comment on that report, saying there’s no unilateral offer from President Trump to cut tariffs on China. He also said it could take two to three years to reach a full trade deal with China.

Progress With India
Before the White House’s 90-day pause on higher tariffs for other countries expires on July 9, India is one country rushing to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S.

Just this week, Vance and Prime Minister Modi announced the t erms of reference for a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and India. The progress toward the agreement was a result of the meeting between the two this week.

“I am pleased to confirm that USTR and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalized the Terms of Reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations on reciprocal trade,” Greer said. “There is a serious lack of reciprocity in the trade relationship with India. These ongoing talks will help achieve balance and reciprocity by opening new markets for American goods and addressing unfair practices that harm American workers. India’s constructive engagement so far has been welcomed and I look forward to creating new opportunities for workers, farmers and entrepreneurs in both countries.”

During Vance’s speech in Jaipur prior to that, he said that the two countries had finalized the terms of reference for the negotiation.

“This is a vital step toward realizing President Trump and Prime Minister Modi’s vision because it sets a roadmap toward a final deal between our nations,” Vance said.

India’s Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture Products
India’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods are significant, which is a major point of contention in the U.S. and India trade relationship. Walnuts, for example, face a tariff of 100% into India. Vegetable oils have a tariff of up to 45%.

The United States has one of the lowest average applied tariff rates on agricultural products. But many of our trading partners maintain prohibitive tariff rates that constrain export opportunities for American farmers and ranchers.

Unfair and non-reciprocal practices have… pic.twitter.com/mmy5spBEzl
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) April 23, 2025

The U.S. argues these tariffs are unfair trade barriers, and Mark Knight of Farmer’s Keeper Financial told AgDay the U.S. relationship with India over the years has been complex and strange.

“Sometimes it’s friendly, for the most part. But that’s a giant population, and it would go a long way toward making a potential deal with China less important if we could strike some deals with some of these other countries — especially India. We haven’t had something in place with India for years.”

India Has the Most Potential, But Poses the Biggest Problem
If you want to understand just how problematic India has been for trade in the past, just talk to Gregg Doud. He’s the current CEO of National Milk Producers Federation (NMFP) but served as the chief ag trade negotiator during the first Trump administration.

During an episode of “Unscripted” earlier this year, he said India has the most potential, but is the biggest problem.

Doud says history shows you India has been a problem, as the U.S. essentially kicked India out of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the past. The U.S. did finally agree to allow India back into the WTO, but under certain terms.

“I don’t want what I’m about to say to be seen as being negative toward the discussion between Modi and President Trump earlier this year, but one of the wins we did get in agriculture — which is my understanding based on some conversations — is that India lowered the tariff on U.S. bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Doud says.

He says while that may not have been the only win, it serves as an example for how difficult it is to negotiate with India.

India is a big customer of one main U.S. ag product, though: almonds .

In the 2023/24 crop year, the U.S. exported over 400 million lb. of almonds to India, making it the largest export market for California almonds. This was a 21% increase compared to the previous year. India’s almond imports from the U.S. were valued at $932 million in FY 2023.

India is the United States’ top buyer of almonds.

(U.S. Almond Board )

Doud says India has high tariffs to protect their own farmers.

“Think of it as a half billion farmers in India whose electricity, water, fuel, fertilizer and seed is all subsidized. India wants to keep that out in the country, and if we do anything that drives rural Indian folks into the cities, it would overwhelm them. This is the mindset,” Doud says. “I remind people, it was 5 or 6 years ago that India made a modicum of reforms of their domestic agricultural markets. There was so much unrest over those changes that Modi agreed upon to make, that three years later, they had to repeal the law.”

India’s Tariffs Crushed Apple Exports
U.S. apples are one commodity that has suffered from India’s retaliation in 2018.

“In 2018, India was the No. 2 market for U.S. apples until their retaliatory tariffs crushed our exports to near zero. They are rebounding back, but it might take years to return to the previous levels,” says Jim Bair, president and CEO of the U.S. Apple Association, in an interview with Farm Journal’s The Packer. “If the White House can facilitate that in a trade agreement with India, U.S. Apple wishes them Godspeed, and not a moment too soon.”

U.S. Apple says in 2018, India was the number two market for U.S. apples until retaliatory tariffs crushed their exports to near zero.

(U.S. Apple Association )

Potential With India
As the world’s most populous country, India holds massive potential if a trade deal can be struck. It boasts one of the fastest growing economies in the world with households that are seeing a high levels of consumer spending. That means agricultural products would be more accessible to a larger number of people.

According to USDA , top agricultural prospects for U.S. exporters include:

Cotton
Dairy products
Ethanol
Fresh fruit
Forest products
Processed food and beverages
Pulses
Tree nuts

USDA says in FY 2023, India imported $37 billion of agricultural and related products from across the world, with imports up 51% over the past five years.

“Proportional to its population, India imports a relatively small value of products. Comparatively, China, a country with a similar population size, imported $262.7 billion during the same period. Currently, India ranks behind much lower population countries like Canada and South Korea in total agricultural and related imports. This relatively low level of imports suggests good opportunities for future growth,” the USDA report stated.

Much of the recent growth of imports in India is with vegetable oils, which is the country’s top imported ag product.

USDA says imports of vegetable oil increased by $9 billion, nearly doubling in 5 years, to a total of $18.4 billion in FY 2023.

The United States has occasionally been a supplier of soybean oil to India, but imports face stiff competition from other substitutable oils like palm and sunflower, and from imports from India’s traditional soybean oil suppliers: Argentina and Brazil.

Planted Acres Soar As Mother Nature Plays Nice (For A Few Days)

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 21:36:02 GMT

Last week’s warm temperatures and handful of rain-free days were a perfect recipe for spring planting — and farmers took full advantage of the opportunity.

Great week of farming. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/KKneurz4Ay
— Travis L (@fishliveinwater) April 19, 2025

At this time last week, USDA reported 4% of corn and 2% of soybean acres had been planted. As of April 20, those numbers have jumped to 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans.

The states with the biggest gains in corn this past week include:

Missouri (24% gain)
North Carolina (23% gain)
Iowa and Kansas (16% gains)

For soybeans, the top states are:

Louisiana (34% gain)
Mississippi (20% gain)
Arkansas (18% gain)

This year’s progress is just ahead of 2024 — up 1% in corn and soybeans alike.

Making Progress While You Can
Not wanting to miss out on Mother Nature cooperating for a few days, some farmers are sharing this is the earliest they’ve planted.

Joined the party. Earliest I’ve ever planted. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/x5yCzGurUf
— Roger Warner (@JDFarmboy) April 18, 2025

This agronomist found corn that’s already emerging in Illinois. USDA reports 2% of the overall corn crop has emerged — mostly in Texas and North Carolina.

We have corn emergence near Stonington, IL. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/oRKQX1AOgR
— Stephanie Porter (@skporter) April 21, 2025

Rain Where It’s Needed?
While a dry spell during planting season is usually good news, there are still many parts of the country in desperate need of a good rain.

It’s dry in Nebraska, @RichVelde! #plant25 pic.twitter.com/kdglMjbkoM
— 🌽 John and my sidekick, Quila 🌾 (@CornDogQuila) April 18, 2025

In fact, as of April 15, USDA reports 30% of corn production and 23% of soybean production occurs in areas currently experiencing some degree of drought.

(USDA)

Though it won’t be enough to reverse a drought, planting did come to a halt over the weekend for some of those states in need of moisture. Farmers’ freshly planted crop received a solid soak as they got a quick break to enjoy time with family.

We got the crust softening rain plus some the corn needed. pic.twitter.com/o2hWbmP2p6
— Zach Townsend (@TandTAg) April 20, 2025

Don’t forget: Legend has it that rain on Easter means rain for another seven Sundays. Plan accordingly.

Rain for the next 7 Sundays??? pic.twitter.com/dYmHLfoLkj
— SharkFarmer (@sf28430) April 20, 2025

Your Next Read: No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:45:23 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:36:01 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

Your next read: 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K

Corn Acres Top 95 Million, But There's a Silver Lining in USDA's March Acreage Report

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:05:59 GMT

USDA’s first survey-based acreage report of the year confirmed one thing: U.S. farmers plan to plant considerably morn corn acres than they did in 2024. But even with corn acres coming in above 95 million, and nearly 1 million acres more than what the trade anticipated, the corn market seemed unfazed by the news.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report estimates U.S. farmers will plant:

95.3 million acres of corn, up 5% from 2024
83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4% from last year
45.4 million acres of wheat, down 2% from 2024
9.87 million acres of cotton in 2025, down 12%.

Total corn and soybean acres in the March report equal 178.8 million, which is up 1.1 million from a year ago.

The corn acreage came in above the average trade guess, which was 94.361 million, but the USDA survey results were below the soybean prereport estimates, which was 83.76 million acres. Why weren’t traders more surprised by USDA’s large acreage number for corn?

“I think it’s probably because there was also the expectation that no matter how high the number on corn plantings that it would be the smallest number of the year on corn plantings,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk” and Farm Journal’s economist. “So, the trade was leaning up on the corn number, but don’t rule out it having a negative impact by the end of the day.”

Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri , says even though 95.3 million is above the average trade guess, it’s not as high as what some expected.

“There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” says Brown. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week and new crop soybeans up 22 cents per bushel. If true, today’s planting intentions report would have been disappointing to them and trigger a reversal of last week’s movement. It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”

According to USDA’s report, total corn acreage is expected to be up 5%, with some of the biggest increases coming in the South.

Arkansas: Up 42%
Mississippi: Up 41%
Tennessee: Up 29%

“Iowa was the biggest amongst the I-States at over a half a million acres higher,” AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett told AgDay’s Michelle Rook . “That’s no surprise. As I’ve been in Iowa several times this winter. I’ve heard over and over that they’re going to be heavy corn growers have told me that personally that it just didn’t work for them to plant soybeans. Then, if you add up Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, you’re over 1.1 million acres of additional corn.”

Bennett says the entire Midwest is seeing higher corn acres in 2025, as well.

“I understand that profit margins are still raised or thin. It’s just that we all know that U.S. growers love to plant corn first of all, and second of all, with $10 cash beans for the bids for beans, t that was a big factor for a lot of these folks,” Bennett added in his interview with Rook.

Shift in Acreage and Potential Impact on Yield
If farmers want to search for something positive in USDA showing such a large number of acres being planted in corn this year, Flory says you don’t have to go far. And that’s the fact that some of the large acreage shifts are coming in the fringe acres, which could bring down the national average yield on corn.

“The movement of acres from cotton and spring wheat to corn should make it tough to get to the 181 bu. per acre for a national average corn yield that USDA currently has penciled in,” Flory says.

If you dig into the details of USDA’s acreage report, and look at where the acres went, the 2025 principal crops planted acreage number fell in the Plains, but corn acres actually increased in some of those states.

“We haven’t hit the USDA trend line yield the last seven years causing many to wonder if the trend has changed and drawing the ire of many producers, so, the 181 bu. per acre number is already under question,” says Brown. “However, where corn increases matters. Of states with an average yield over 181 bushels per acre, which is 14, 13 of them had an increase in corn acreage relative to 2024. One could thus then make the case- we have increase corn acreage in states with state wide yield averages better than 181 bu. per acre.”

Soybean Acres Slip

The pretrade estimates were wide for corn, ranging from above 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range was 82.5 million to 85.5 million. USDA’s actual report number came in at 83.5 million, which was only 1 million acres higher than the lowest trade estimate. So, why did the soybean market trend lower after the report? Flory says it’s the opposite of corn.

“There was an attitude that the bean number would be the biggest we see this year, so the trade was leaning down on the bean number,” Flory explains.

Biggest Surprises Out of USDA’s Reports
The fact that the March 31 reports included Prospective Plantings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) means the markets have a lot of information to digest. But what are the biggest surprises?

Here’s Flory’s list:

That the market surveys did a fantastic job of identifying the March 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks. Wheat stocks are a touch heavy but not enough to make a difference.
Also, USDA printed a cotton plantings number below 10 million. “I think that’s important, even if the market doesn’t — wow,” Flory says.
Spring wheat at 10 million seedings is a bullish number.

For Brown, the biggest surprise wasn’t in acreage; it was the fact the March Grain Stocks report didn’t produce any shocks to the market.

“Maybe it’s adrenaline- but I was surprised the stocks report was as accurate as it was as it can be full of surprises especially for corn,” says Brown “However, corn came in spot on and the smallest surprise in the corn quarterly stocks since I started tracking in 2018/2019. Beans and wheat were also relatively small surprises.”

Brown says the total prospective acreage number wasn’t really a surprise, but he does question if U.S. farmers will hit that total this year.

“I just don’t know if producers will break their necks to plant everything this year,” says Brown.

Brown also points out sorghum was able to increase acreage in 2025 vs 2024 by 265,000 acres.

“Sorghum prices have been relatively weak compared to corn- but it is dry in Kansas and that could incentivize people to plant more of crops that do better in dry conditions,” says Brown.

Your Next Read:
Where Did the Acreage Shifts Come From and What Does it Mean for Prices?

EXCLUSIVE: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:36:23 GMT

Time is running out for USDA to issue the nearly $10 billion of economic relief payments to farmers . Congress approved a 90-day window to release those payments, and in an exclusive interview with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Thursday morning, we asked when exactly those payments will be released. Rollins confirmed to Farm Journal that those payments will be released before the current deadline.

“Congress gave us until March 21, that is the ideal deadline,” Rollins said. “It looks like we’re going to be able to beat that, so it should be just around the corner.”

As USDA works to release those payments within the next few weeks, according to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.

Pro Farmer Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the only issue that could impact that timing is a possible government shutdown. If the government shuts down beginning March 15, and those payments haven’t been released yet, that could impact the March 21 deadline.

Wiesemeyer also reports based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year, which are:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

Payment Cap
Like other recent disaster programs, the payment limit for farmers will depend on how much of a farmer’s income is derived from agriculture. However, this program is based on average gross income rather than adjusted gross income (AGI).

The payment cap will be:

If < 75% of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $125,000
If 75% or more of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $250,000
USDA says standard FSA “actively engaged in farming” requirements apply

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

Update on Timing of $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu
Led by Rollins, USDA announced on Wednesday plans to invest up to $1 billion in new funding to combat impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and soaring egg prices.

“The important piece is not just this immediate short-term goal of getting the cost of eggs down and repopulating our layers and locking our barns down,” Rollins told Farm Journal on Thursday. “But much more importantly, perhaps, is figuring this out for the long term, so we’re not having the same conversation over and over and over again.”

The avian flu plan, which USDA rolled out on Wednesday, includes five major points:

Dedicate up to $500 million to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard” biosecurity measures. USDA has developed a successful pilot program, called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, to identify and implement more safety measures. USDA will pay up to 75% of the cost to address any identified biosecurity vulnerabilities at poultry farms.
Make up to $400 million of increased financial relief available to farmers whose flocks are affected by avian flu, and USDA will assist farmers in receiving faster approval to begin safe operations again after an outbreak.
USDA is exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for laying chickens. While vaccines aren’t a stand-alone solution, they will provide up to $100 million in research and development of vaccines and therapeutics, to improve their efficacy and efficiency. This should help reduce the need to depopulate flocks, which means killing chickens on a farm where there’s an outbreak. Note: USDA hasn’t yet authorized the use of a vaccine. Before making a determination, USDA will consult state leaders, poultry and dairy farmers, and public-health professionals. The agency will also work with trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns.
USDA will take other actions to lower the price of eggs. For starters, it will remove unnecessary regulatory burdens on egg producers where possible. This will include examining the best way to protect farmers from overly prescriptive state laws, such as California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens.
USDA will consider temporary import options to reduce egg costs in the short term. They will proceed with imports only if the eggs meet stringent U.S. safety standards and if they determine that doing so won’t jeopardize American farmers’ access to markets in the future.

As for the $500 million that will go toward beefing up biosecurity efforts, Rollins says that will happen immediately.

“The team is putting together right now the guardrails for that, but I think they’re almost finished, and that money should be moving out very quickly,” Rollins told Farm Journal. “That biosecurity money is based on a pilot program where 150 different egg laying farms were piloted on specific biosecurity measures. Of those 150, only one has seen the avian flu. Once they implemented, there’s a massive audit that USDA comes in. They help audit. We’re hiring a whole bunch of new folks to come on board to do that — and new epidemiologists to help us work through all of the science on this, and hopefully you see that immediately.”

Where is the $1 Billion Coming From?
At a time when the Trump administration is looking to save money, not spend, we asked Rollins where exactly is the $1 billion of funds going to be sourced.

“We’ve repurposed funds from other programs within USDA, so this is not spending new money,” Rollins said. “Clearly, we’re in an era where President Trump’s vision is to really streamline government, but this is not that. This is outside that lane. This is a really, really important issue. You know, it’s affecting every single American, not just our poultry producers. And so there’s short-term and long-term fixes here now.”

Some of that money, however, is coming from savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

“We are pulling it from multiple different pots. But yes, there’s no doubt that we’ve been able to find some serious savings in DOGE,” Rollins said. “We’ve canceled almost a thousand DEI trainings that were across USDA.... All of it adds up, and we’ve really pulled a lot of that money back. And now putting it where we think it really helps farmers and ranchers.”

What Will It Take for the Ag Economy to Recover

Rollins is set to give the keynote address at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Friday. Rollins told Farm Journal there are a lot of farmers hurting in this economy, saying “it’s one of the worst for that industry that we’ve seen in decades.”

Considering 64% of ag economists think the row crop sector of agriculture is in a recession , we asked Rollins what it will take for the ag economy to recover.

“There’s no doubt, to your point, a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of input down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” said Rollins.

Rollins says when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. And she says the growign trade deficit is something President Trump wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure that they could make some kind of a profit,” said Rollins. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation, the cost of energy has absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. So when you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. And we’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the president’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital, making sure that that the cost of inputs goes down. Hopefully with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. And I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change.”

During the the first Cabinet meeting in President Trump’s second-term, which was held Wednesday, President Trump floated 25% tariffs on the European Union.

“Obviously, tariffs always come up. I’m always saying, ‘let’s be very, very careful and intentional how we move here,’” Rollins said about the first Cabinet meeting. “The border came up, immigration deportations came up. So all the things that the ag community is concerned about that came up, course, I’m at the table. My job is to ensure that that our community’s voice is heard, but also to help effectuate the president’s vision. And we’re moving forward on all fronts.”

You can listen to the complete interview with Secretary Rollins below.

Your Next Read:
EXCLUSIVE: As DOGE Works to Stop ‘Wasteful Spending,’ Ag Secretary Rollins Says Vital Farm Programs Aren’t at Risk

Trump Sows Confusion on Tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Floats 25% Duty for EU Goods

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 21:25:23 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.

A White House official, however, said Trump’s previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending his review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the U.S. Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.

“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all ofthem but a lot of them.”

Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.

Canada’s Finance Ministry and Mexico’s Economy Ministry both declined to comment on Trump’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to “overall” tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4 deadline was still in effect.

“So the big transaction is April 2, but the fentanyl-related things, we’re working hard on the border,”
Lutnick said during the cabinet meeting. “At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that they’ve satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he’ll give them a pause, or he won’t.”

EU Tariff Rate

Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs that would match the import duty rates of other countries and offset their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff.

Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate for goods from the European Union, replied: “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25%, generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things.”

He said the EU is a “different case” from Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.

“They don’t accept our cars. They don’t accept, essentially our farm products,” Trump said, adding that the EU was formed “in order to screw the United States.”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, is in Washington and will meet U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, a spokesman said. She is not slated to meet with any Trump administration officials.

New U.S. Trade Representative Confirmed

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 56-43 to confirm Jamieson Greer as Trump’s new U.S. Trade Representative, putting a veteran of the Republican president’s first-term trade wars fully on the job.

Greer, who served as chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, won the support of five Democrats, including both senators from Michigan, the center of the U.S. auto industry.

Trade groups welcomed Greer’s confirmation, lauding his commitment to consulting with industry and standing up for U.S. businesses, farmers and workers. “We share Ambassador Greer’s desire for an active and pragmatic trade policy that creates

U.S. jobs and more resilient supply chains,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Greer told senators during his Senate confirmation hearing that he wanted to quickly renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to ensure China does not use it as a back door to the U.S. market to avoid other tariffs.

“Right out of the gate, I expect that we’ll be taking a second look at the USMCA,” Greer said.

Asked what changes he would like to see in the pact, Greer zeroed in on further tightening automotive content rules.

“I think we should look at the rule of origin for automobiles and aerospace and other things to look and see if we need to have any kind of restriction on content or value added from foreign countries of concern, or non-market economies,” he said, using language that U.S. trade officials often use to describe China.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by Bo Erickson and Ryan Jones in Washington, Brendan O’Boyle in Mexico City and Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dan Burns, David Gregorio and Paul Simao)

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:14:24 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

Congress Approves CR, Includes $31 Billion in Farmer, Disaster Aid and Farm Bill Extension

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 16:50:13 GMT

With little if any drama like the House, the Senate easily cleared the 118-page continuing resolution (CR) early Saturday morning with a vote of 85-11 (four members did not vote). The measure funds the government through March 14. The CR includes nearly $110 billion in disaster and farmer aid ($21 billion ag disaster and $10 billion in farmer aid), and a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.

The Senate vote came hours after the House passed the measure on a 366-34 vote, well above the two-thirds majority threshold required under that chamber’s suspension of the rules procedure, with no Democrats voting no along with 34 Republicans. Texas Dem Rep. Jasmine Crockett voted “present”.

Debt Ceiling

GOP leaders dropped a two-year suspension of the statutory debt ceiling that was in a previous CR version and that helped push the bill through both chambers. Democrats opposed inclusion of the debt limit provision, arguing it would make it easier on Republicans next year to cut taxes and ram through other partisan priorities. Cutting the debt limit language was enough to convince Democrats to go along with the stripped-down bill, even though it excluded their priorities contained in an i nitial 1,547-page bipartisan measure .

One ag sector lobbyist said, “Ag groups need to start playing the game… those who always vote no on everything… why not actively oppose them… they don’t support farm bills anyhow.”

Breaking Down the Votes

Here is the list of House Republicans who voted no on the CR that contained $31 billion in ag sector assistance:

House no votes on CR

(House of Representatives)

Some notable representatives who voted against the CR include Nancy Mace (South Carolina), Thomas Massie (Kentucky), and Chip Roy (Texas). The reasons for voting against the CR varied among representatives, with some citing concerns about high levels of spending, lack of reforms, or opposition to giving the current administration additional funding.

Here is the list of Senate Democrats who voted no:

Senate no votes on CR

(U.S. Senate)

Farmer Aid in the CR

This is a breakdown of the $31 billion in farmer assistance via the CR:

Farmer aid breakdown

(House Ag Committee)

Possible Payment Amounts to Farmers

The farmer aid should be available 90 days after the legislation’s enactment. Farm CPA Paul Neiffer estimated per acre payment amounts via the Economic Loss Assistance program based on his knowledge of the provisions.

Possible payments as calculated by Farm CPA Paul Neiffer

(Lindsey Pound )

While USDA will make the final calculations, based on Neiffer’s estimates, producer payments look like this per acre, using the following calculation: (USDA’s Projected Cost of the Crop – National Projected Returns) x Eligible Acres x 26% = Total Payment.

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $69.66

Neiffer says there is a payment limit of $125,000 dollars, which is down from the $175,00 originally proposed in the FARM Act. He says it’s also key to note with the updated relief, if 75% of your total gross income comes from farming, which includes wages and interest and dividends, then you qualify for the double payment.

Related Story: Poll Results: 71% of Farmers Say Congress Should Approve Economic Aid Before Year-End

House Ag Committee Fact Sheet Details Payments

The House Ag Committee released a fact sheet on the farmer economic assistance that is provided in the current Continuing Resolution (CR), modeled off of Rep. Trent Kelly’s (R-Miss.) FARM Act (HR 10045). There is a list of eligible commodities, a payment formula, administrative provisions, and estimated payment rates.

House Ag panel staffers say please keep in mind that the payment rates in this document are estimates and “almost certain to change slightly once implemented. These rates are the best approximation based on the data cited in text. This does incorporate the minimum payment rate provision. You’ll see that those crops receiving payments via the minimum payment provision have an asterisk.”

The House Ag panel had the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M analyze the impact of the economic assistance provided through this provision. Their findings suggest that the funds will improve ending cash position on their Representative Farm system by nearly 20% by the end of 2025.

Farmer aid

(House Ag Committee)

Your Next Reads:

Poll Results: 71% of Farmers Say Congress Should Approve Economic Aid Before Year-End

Ag Gets Potential Christmas Gift from Congress: Continuing Resolution Includes $31 Billion in Aid for Producers

Continuing Resolution Includes $31 Billion in Aid for Producers

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 16:20:47 GMT

Farm groups and farm-state lawmakers had to first sell Congress on the need for substantial aid via the Continuing Resolution (CR) , now congressional leaders must sell others to pass it.

While the measure still needs to pass both the House and Senate, the stopgap deal to avoid a government shutdown includes $10 billion in direct payments for farmers, $21 bllion in ag disaster aid, a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and year-round E15.

Passage of CR Now in Question

Congress actually passing the stopgap spending measure is far from a done deal. Washington insiders were confident Wednesday morning Congress would pass the measure with bipartisan support, but strong opposition from the incoming Trump administration later in the day on Wednesday is now throwing that into question.

A statement from President Donald J. Trump and Vice President-Elect JD Vance:

The most foolish and inept thing ever done by Congressional Republicans was allowing our country to hit the debt ceiling in 2025. It was a mistake and is now something that must be addressed.…
— JD Vance (@JDVance) December 18, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has asked to keep certain measures House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) supports in the continuing resolution (CR), like aid for farmers and natural disaster survivors, but also demanded the House ditch items that Democrats negotiated.

Trump has also requested that Republicans extend the suspension of the debt ceiling, a limit on how much the U.S. government can borrow, which is set to expire early in his new term next year.

Johnson’s legislative strategy has sparked significant discontent among Republicans, casting doubt on his ability to retain the gavel in the next Congress. On Tuesday, Johnson introduced a sprawling bill to extend federal funding until March 14, allocating $110.4 billion for natural disaster relief ($21 billion in ag disaster funding) and incorporating a range of unrelated policy provisions. Late-stage negotiations added $10 billion in aid for farmers, opening the floodgates to additional Democratic demands, including the transfer of RFK Stadium to D.C., a congressional pay raise, health plan regulations, and funds to rebuild Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge.

The concessions enraged GOP lawmakers across the party’s ideological spectrum, with members voicing concerns about Johnson’s leadership. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already pledged not to support Johnson in future leadership elections, and private discussions among Republicans suggest Johnson may face insurmountable opposition come Jan. 3. The Freedom Caucus and moderates alike criticized his handling of the bill, while high-profile figures like Elon Musk, now a Trump adviser, lambasted the legislation as “criminal.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) warned of potential Senate resistance, labeling the bill a “cramnibus.” Johnson defended the compromise as a necessary measure under a divided government, framing it as a preparatory step for Republicans to advance Trump’s “America First” agenda in the next Congress. However, with a slim three-seat majority and growing fractures within the party, Johnson’s future as speaker hangs in the balance.

Breaking Down the Proposed CR

While the fate of the stopgap spending measure is now in question, if passed, the funding would last through March 14 for fiscal year 2025 that began Oct. 1.

Highlights of the bill that will impact agriculture includes:

One-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, including provisions that don’t have “baseline,” or cost money to extend. Negotiators found $143 million in unspent agricultural funds to rescind to offset those extensions. GOP leaders said they would push to consider a new bill the first quarter of 2025.
$10 billion in farmer financial aid along the lines of a bill introduced by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.).
$21 billion in ag disaster aid for farmers and ranchers as part of an overall $100.4 billion disaster package. The measure sets aside $2 billion of the disaster aid specifically for livestock producers, with much of the rest available via block grants to states and territories and direct aid to farmers and ranchers. It includes $3 million specifically for regular testing of procedures in place for inspections of molasses imports at the Canadian border, a provision sought by U.S. sugar producers.
Year-round E15, including other biofuel provisions detailed below.
SNAP provision. Language extending authorization of a program that replenishes stolen Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamp) benefits, which Democrats said would prevent a $1.5 billion cut to those benefits.

Disaster Aid

The disaster crop loss program will likely operate similarly to the 2021 program without any of the 2022 quirks that made it into a debacle. The livestock program will likely operate similar to the 2022 livestock program where the Biden administration actually managed to get it right. The economic aid program is very similar to Kelly farm act with a factor applied to keep it within budget.

Direct Payments to Farmers

Paul Neiffer’s analysis of the $10 billion in financial aid included in the CR calculates what the possible payments could be, including $43 per acre for corn, $30 for soybeans, $31.80 for wheat, $85 for cotton and $70 for long-grain rice.

Possible payment calculations

(Paul Neiffer )

When will payments be received by farmers? Economic aid will come 90 days after enactment. As for ag disaster, the push is on to use the 2020 approach where most payments came out of USDA’s Kansas City office.

Here are the key details and the differences from the original FARM Act:

The same 8 crops are specifically identified (corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton, rice, peanuts, oats and barley).
You will be paid on total 2024 planted acres by crop plus 50% of prevent planted acres by crop.

How Ag Financial Aid Will be Determined

The calculation uses national avg payment yield for PLC. Regarding the legislative language on the minimum payment rate calculation for economic assistance, we previously used 8% of the reference price multiplied by the national average yield. The legislative calculation uses the national average payment yield for PLC instead.
The payment limit is lowered from $175,000 to $125,000 and if your Farm AGI exceeds 75% of total AGI, then this is doubled to $250,000. Definition of AGI remains the same and this limit is per entity/ per person. This means an LLC has one payment no matter the number of owners. AGI is based on a three-year average of 2020-2022 tax years.

Here is a table of Neiffer’s estimated per acre payment amounts based on his knowledge of the provisions:

Year-Round E15

CR package includes nationwide year-round sales of 15% ethanol gasoline (E15) and offers short-term biofuel blending relief to small refiners.

Previously, E15 was restricted during summer months, though eight Midwestern states had already been granted year-round sales earlier this year. The inclusion of the E15 language, based on a bill by Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), marks a major win for ethanol producers and farm state lawmakers who have spent years lobbying to permanently allow year-round E15 sales.

The bill would also provide short-term relief to some small refiners under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that retired renewable identification numbers (RINs) in 2016-18 in cases when their requests for “hardship” waivers remained pending for years. The bill would return some of those RINs to the small refiners and make them eligible for compliance in future years.

Enacting the stopgap funding bill would also make it unnecessary for eight states to follow through with a costly gasoline blendstock reformulation — set to begin as early as next summer — they had requested to retain year-round E15 sales in the midcontinent. Oil industry groups last month petitioned EPA to delay the fuel reformulation until after the 2025 summer driving season, citing concerns about inadequate fuel supply and the prospects that a legislative fix would make required infrastructure changes unnecessary.

Ethanol Groups React

Ethanol groups say the E15 legislative change could pave the way for retailers to more widely offer the high-ethanol fuel blend, which is currently available at 3,400 retail stations and last summer was about 10-30¢/USG cheaper than 10% ethanol gasoline (E10).

Offering the fuel year-round would be “an early Christmas present to American drivers,” ethanol industry group Growth Energy chief executive Emily Skor said.

Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, said biofuels “champions” are fighting for the provision allowing the sale of E15 year-around. “We have been working to get a year-round E15 solution for over 10 years,” he said in a statement. “It would be monumental for ethanol demand to support rural farmers and would save drivers 10 to 20 cents at the pump.”

Calculating What It Means for Corn Demand

The potential increase in ethanol consumption and corn use due to year-round E15 sales is relatively modest based on the available information. The additional ethanol consumption from year-round E15 sales is estimated to be approximately 15 million gallons. This represents a small fraction of the total U.S. ethanol production. The 15-million-gallon increase in ethanol consumption would translate to an additional corn use of about 5.6 million bushels. It’s important to note that the impact of year-round E15 sales is limited by several factors:

Distribution network: E15 has a small distribution network, available at only a fraction of gas stations.
Consumer adoption: The shift to E15 may be gradual and dependent on factors such as price differentials and consumer awareness.
Seasonal demand: While year-round sales are now permitted, demand may still fluctuate seasonally.

Looking ahead, maintaining current corn use levels for ethanol (around 5.5 billion bushels) would require increasing the national average ethanol blend rate to 15-17% by 2042, given projected declines in gasoline consumption. This suggests that year-round E15 sales alone may not be sufficient to significantly boost corn use for ethanol in the long term. However, others note the quickest way to get consumer attention is with price and E15 is the cheapest option for most cars… in many markets it’s cheap enough that consumers seek it out. Also, some think it’s not even a question for new facilities to include E15 … it’s the easiest way to be competitive in a market. Either way, year-round E15 sales represent a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates, the immediate impact on ethanol consumption and corn use is expected to be minimal in the short run, but differences of opinion are in place regarding long-term impacts.

A bewildering assessment of the year-round E15 impact came from some traders, based on a Reuters article.

The concern expressed by traders regards a potential shift in demand from biodiesel to ethanol due to year-round E15 sales. That is a questionable conclusion. Consider:

Separate products with different applications. Ethanol and biodiesel are distinct biofuels with different uses and markets: Ethanol is primarily blended with gasoline for use in standard gasoline engines. Biodiesel is typically blended with petroleum diesel for use in diesel engines. This fundamental difference makes a direct substitution between the two unlikely in most applications.
Potential market impacts. While the products aren’t directly interchangeable, there are some potential indirect effects to consider:
- Fuel blending choices: Refiners and fuel blenders might adjust their overall biofuel strategy, potentially favoring increased ethanol blending if E15 becomes more widely available year-round.
- Feedstock competition: Both ethanol (from corn) and biodiesel (often from soybean oil) compete for agricultural resources. Increased demand for corn-based ethanol could impact crop planting decisions and prices.
- Policy uncertainty: The combination of year-round E15 approval and the upcoming change in administration adds complexity to the biofuels policy landscape, which could affect investment decisions in both ethanol and biodiesel sectors.
- Market reaction may be premature. The sharp drop in soybean oil prices mentioned in the Reuters story likely reflects short-term market uncertainty rather than a definitive shift in demand. Several factors suggest this reaction may be overblown:
  - Infrastructure limitations: Widespread adoption of E15 will take time due to the need for compatible fuel pumps and consumer education.
  - Separate mandates: The RFS has separate volume requirements for different biofuel categories, including biodiesel.
  - Diesel market stability: Demand for biodiesel is also driven by the diesel fuel market, which has different dynamics than the gasoline market.

Additional Details From the Bill

Democrats celebrated inclusion of priorities like funding for childcare and 9/11 survivors’ health care benefits; restrictions on China-related investments; legislation intended to crack down on publication of artificial intelligence-generated “deepfakes,” and on “junk” fees charged for hotel stays and concert tickets; new safety standards for lithium-ion batteries; and more.

Taxpayers would recoup some of the bridge rebuilding cost through proceeds from insurance and litigation payouts by the owner of the cargo ship Dali, which crashed into the bridge in March.

Also included is $25.6 million for residential security and protection of Supreme Court justices.

Negotiators also agreed to a 100% federal cost-share for Francis Scott Key Bridge reconstruction in Baltimore, a key demand of the Maryland delegation — who elsewhere in the bill had to accept language paving the way for a new Washington Commanders stadium on the old Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium, while transferring a D.C. National Guard fighter squadron to Maryland.

Appropriators threw in an unrequested $300 million for fisheries disaster aid, which Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and others sought.

The deal omits language that Democrats were seeking to unfreeze $20 billion in IRS enforcement funding.

What’s Next?

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is expected to turn to Democrats to supply the bulk of votes needed to get the bill to the Senate. It appears lawmakers would have at least a day to review the package. It looks like Johnson will bring the CR up under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage.

A floor vote has yet to be scheduled, but the initial assessment is that the House will take it up as early as Thursday or more likely on Friday. That leaves the Senate little time to clear the measure before Friday’s midnight deadline. But even if the final action does not occur Friday, there is wiggle room on the weekend to get it done.

House Ag Panel Says Ag Economic Aid in Current CR Would Improve Ending Cash Position by 20% By End of 2025

The following is a quick fact sheet released by the House Ag Committee on the economic assistance that is provided in the current Continuing Resolution (CR), modeled off of Rept. Trent Kelly’s (R-Miss.) FARM Act (HR 10045). There is a background portion, a list of eligible commodities, a payment formula, administrative provisions, and estimated payment rates.

House Ag panel staffers say keep in mind that the payment rates in this document are estimates and “almost certain to change slightly once implemented. These rates are the best approximation based on the data cited in text. This does incorporate the minimum payment rate provision. You’ll see that those crops receiving payments via the minimum payment provision have an asterisk.”

The House Ag panel had the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M analyze the impact of the economic assistance provided through this provision. Their findings suggest that the funds will improve ending cash position on their Representative Farm system by nearly 20% by the end of 2025.

Additional Analysis on Potential Aid for Producers

The following is what Combest-Sell and crew put out about the ag financial aid and disaster aid:

Crop Loss Assistance

For crop loss disaster assistance for the 2023 and 2024 calendar years, the measure makes provision for nearly $21 billion.

The language is pretty wide open with slight refinements of prior years’ disaster bills. There are some carve-outs including: $2 billion of the total amount is provided for livestock losses in 2023 or 2024 due to drought, wildfires, or floods; block grant authority to compensate producers with timber losses, citrus, pecan, and poultry losses (including poultry infrastructure losses); and a special provision for agricultural producers who suffered losses due to Mexico’s failure to adhere to its water rights treaty with the U.S.

For the bulk of the disaster program, the eligible causes of loss are the same as those under the 2022 program, including losses of revenue, quality or production losses of crops (including milk, on-farm stored commodities, crops prevented from planting, and harvested adulterated wine grapes), trees, bushes, and vines, as a consequence of droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze, including a polar vortex, smoke exposure, and excessive moisture occurring in 2023 and 2024.

Please note that while the 2022 statute was used again as base text (and it used 2020 which used 2019, etc.), that is not an endorsement of the badly flawed implementation used by the Vilsack USDA. We would say that the disaster program from 2020 and 2021 is more of the standard bearer to think back to.

Losses are to be covered under terms and conditions determined by the Secretary but subject to previous requirements that: (1) smoke tainted wine grapes due to wildfires are covered; (2) losses due to drought are eligible if in a county with a D2 drought for 8 consecutive weeks or D3 drought or higher at any time during the calendar year but excessive heat as a cause of loss can cover lesser drought if it meets STC parameters; (3) sugar beet and sugar cane disaster be implemented through processors that elect to deliver aid to their producers; (4) not more than 1 percent of funds may be used for implementation; (5) payment limitations required under previous ERP programs apply (i.e., $125,000 per entity, or $250,000 if not less than 75% of AGI is derived from farming); (5) higher pay limits for specialty crops and high valued crops under previous ERP programs apply (i.e., $125,000 per entity, or $900,000 if not less than 75% of AGI is derived from farming) (Note: there is *no* AGI means testing for disaster aid; the portion of AGI derived from agriculture is just used as a measure to determine eligibility for the higher pay limit)] ; (6) prescribed pay limits are separate for each of the 2023 and 2024 calendar years; (7) payments under the program plus crop insurance and/or NAP (less premiums or fees paid) cannot exceed 90% of the loss; and (8) the same future crop insurance purchase requirements under previous ERP programs apply. In addition, to the extent that any factor must be applied to stay within budget, one single factor must be applied to the eligible benefit of each producer (i.e., no progressive factor).

No gender or race-based components are expected to be applied either in light of the federal court’s injunction.

The Secretary may use $30 million to provide equitable relief for specialty crop A&O for 2022 and 2023 reinsurance years.

The Secretary shall use $3 million to test product coming into the country under the molasses tariff line to ensure that it is molasses.

USDA is required to report to Appropriations Committees on progress of implementation within 120 days of enactment and quarterly until all payments are made. We will be pushing with the new Administration at USDA to get the FSA back on track with a quick and clear implementation that treats a loss as a loss regardless of the gender or race of the producer. Federal courts will also be ensuring this.

Economic Loss Assistance

For economic loss assistance for the 2024 crop year, the measure provides $10 billion in relief.

The program is not as robust as the Rep. Trent Kelly (R-MISS.) bill (the “FARM Act”) that was introduced this fall and spread in popularity like wildfire. But it is still generous, and we hope that when coupled with disaster relief it will go a long way in helping producers until Congress reauthorizes a new Farm Bill next year with a strong, meaningful safety net.

The measure uses the Kelly model, with a 26% factor to keep overall costs within budget, and another factor (8% of reference price) that creates minimums that improve the payment rates for certain crops (barley, rice, peanuts, minor crops).

Eligible commodities are commodities eligible for a marketing loan, except wool, mohair, and honey.

Under the program, if the Secretary determines that the expected gross return per acre for an eligible commodity is less than the expected cost of production per acre for that eligible commodity, the Secretary shall make a 1-time economic assistance payment to each producer of that commodity within 90 days of enactment of the supplemental.

The expected gross return per acre for an eligible commodity is equal to the following:

For wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, cotton, rice, and soybeans, [the projected average farm price for the commodity for the 2024–2025 marketing year contained in the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published before the date of enactment of the Supplemental by the World Agricultural Outlook Board] X [the national average harvested yield per acre for the commodity for the most recent 10 crop years, as determined by the Secretary].

For other loan eligible commodities, a comparable estimate of gross returns, as determined by the Secretary.

The expected cost of production per acre for an eligible commodity is equal to—

For wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, cotton, rice, and soybeans, the total costs listed for the 2024 crop year with respect to the commodity contained in the most recent data product entitled “national average cost-of-production forecasts for major U.S. field crops” published by the Economic Research Service.

For other loan eligible commodities, a comparable total estimated cost-of-production, as determined by the Secretary.

The amount of an economic assistance payment to a producer for a commodity is equal to [the economic loss for the commodity] X [the eligible acres of the commodity on the farm] X [26%].

The economic loss for a commodity is equal to the difference between the expected cost of production per acre for the commodity and the expected gross return per acre for the commodity.

Eligible acres of a commodity on a farm is equal to the sum of the acreage planted on the farm to the commodity for harvest, grazing, haying, silage, or other similar purposes for the 2024 crop year and an amount equal to 50% of the acreage on the farm that was prevented from being planted during the 2024 crop year to the commodity because of drought, flood, or other natural disaster, or other condition beyond the control of the producers on the farm, as determined by the Secretary.

The Secretary shall consider acreage planted to include any land devoted to planted acres for accepted skip-row planting patterns, as determined by the Secretary.

In determining the payment rate for a crop for which there is no sufficient available data, the Secretary shall use the data related to a similarly situated crop to establish a comparable rate.

In no case shall the amount of an economic assistance payment to a producer for an eligible commodity be equal to less than [8% of the PLC/ARC reference price for the commodity] X [the national average payment yield for the eligible commodity] X [the number of eligible acres for the commodity].

As for pay limits and means tests, the total amount of payments received, directly or indirectly, by a person or legal entity (except a joint venture or general partnership) under this section may not exceed —

(A) $125,000, if less than 75% of the average gross income of the person or legal entity for the 2020, 2021, and 2022 tax years is derived from farming, ranching, or silviculture activities; and
(B) $250,000, if not less than 75% of the average gross income of the person or legal entity for the 2020, 2021, and 2022 tax years is derived from farming, ranching, or silviculture activities.

Please note the “average” is different from “adjusted.” Recall the scenario where a farmer grosses $1 million on the farm but had expenses that exceeded this, so his AGI (adjusted gross income) was negative. He or his wife also had a job teaching history and science at the local school creating a situation where his non-farm income was more than 75% of his AGI and he was therefore not eligible for the higher limit to address the losses. Using “average” gross is meant to correct that problem.

The pay limits for economic assistance are separate from the pay limits for crop loss assistance described above. And, just like the crop loss portions, this economic assistance is not subject to the AGI means test to determine eligibility that traditional farm bill benefits are subject to.

We are sure that you have seen estimated payment rates floated in various publications. These are certainly within the range, but it is important to note that final numbers have not yet been determined.

Beyond Crop Loss/Economic Assistance

Besides the aforementioned economic and disaster aid, the CR/Supplemental also includes other priorities for agriculture, including year-round E15.

The package also extends the current authorities in the farm bill for one year; makes investments in the FFAR research program; provides scholarships to 1890 universities; and addresses problems with fraudulent skimming of food stamp benefits from EBT cards.

A Farm Bill Extension Without Economic Aid for Farmers Sparks Intense Negotiations and Debate in Congress

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 16:44:47 GMT

A one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, tied to the continuing resolution (CR), has sparked intense negotiations over economic assistance to farmers. Initially, leaders considered diverting Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds intended for the National Resources Conservation Service in exchange for farmer aid. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opposed this, aligning with President-elect Donald Trump’s intent to dismantle the IRA in the next Congress.

Sensing an opening, Democrats pushed for concessions in return for their support, proposing initiatives like 100% federal funding for Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, duty-free trade benefits for Haiti and Africa, funding for museums honoring women and Hispanics, and re-entry support for former inmates under the Second Chance Act.

AFBF Calls for a No Vote If Congress Ignores Ag Recession 📰 https://t.co/ejlB4kQZh4 https://t.co/WaArdCYkdw
— American Farm Bureau (@FarmBureau) December 14, 2024

Farm-state lawmakers, pushed by farm group lobbyists, said they would not support a CR without farmer aid. American Farm Bureau Federation publicly called on lawmakers to oppose the stopgap bill if it doesn’t include farm aid. “I call on members of Congress who represent ag to stand with farmers by insisting the supplemental spending bill include economic aid for farmers and voting it down if it doesn’t,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said Saturday.

The Dilimma

Democrats know Johnson wants farmer aid language and must rely on them to help pass it, perhaps a majority of votes. House GOP leaders may have to take the CR up under suspension, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. If congressional leaders release CR bill text today, the House may not vote until Thursday. If so, the Senate could follow on Thursday or more likely on Friday.

Unlocking the farm aid package is the key to a broader CR deal. Both sides want to get aid to farmers, but they differ on the funding mechanisms. Republicans rejected a Democratic offer to include about $10 billion in aid to farmers while moving several conservation/climate programs into the farm bill baseline, which technically scores as deficit neutral. Republican leaders opposed continuing the conservation programs beyond their 2031 expiration, as they’d like to claw back as much of the 2022 law’s climate-related spending as possible once they have full control of the House, Senate and White House next year. Democrats in turn rejected a GOP counteroffer of $12 billion in unoffset economic aid, saying it came at the expense of some of Biden’s requested $21 billion in emergency agricultural assistance for farmers and ranchers impacted by natural disasters

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and other farm groups announced opposition to any year-end spending package that excludes economic assistance for agricultural producers. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized the urgent need for aid as farmers grapple with inflation, soaring input costs, and declining commodity prices.

Ragland, a soy farmer from Kentucky, called on congressional leaders to re-engage in negotiations to deliver both economic and disaster relief. He warned that failing to act would exacerbate the financial struggles of farmers, potentially leading to widespread impacts on rural communities and the broader U.S. economy. Soybean prices have fallen 40% over two years, with many farmers citing an insufficient safety net to weather the crisis.

ASA and other agricultural groups argue that without meaningful support, the nation risks an escalating agricultural recession that will reverberate through households across the country.

Meanwhile, the National Cotton Council (NCC) said it also strongly opposes any supplemental spending package that lacks meaningful short-term assistance for farmers. An NCC statement said the failure of Congress to provide short-term support to producers will mean that many farm families will go out of business in 2025, leading to devastating impacts throughout the rural economy. “We urge Congressional leadership to return to the negotiating table to find a path forward on economic assistance. If not, we will vigorously oppose a supplemental spending package that does not provide the immediate support our producers need. The current stalemate is a completely unacceptable outcome,” said NCC Chairman Joe Nicosia.

American Cotton Producer Chairman David Dunlow of North Carolina said, “Our producers will lose as much as $300 per acre on this year’s harvest due to soaring production costs and low market prices. Unfortunately, political gamesmanship has resulted in legislators turning their back on farmers during our hour of greatest need.”

Senate Democrats Respond

House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) and Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) issued a statement ( link ) condemning Republican Leadership for rejecting a $10 billion farm bill extension proposal. They said the Democrats’ plan aimed to provide economic aid and bolster conservation programs without diverting funds from disaster relief. They warned that the GOP’s counteroffer falls short, jeopardizing farmers’ livelihoods and risking widespread foreclosures.

Congressional Democrats are proposing $9.8 billion in economic assistance to farmers that is completely paid for and doesn’t add a penny to the deficit. This is real help that will reach farmers by the spring planting season. pic.twitter.com/9ty2uSKDFJ
— Senate Ag, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee Dems (@SenateAgDems) December 11, 2024

“For weeks, congressional Democrats have provided a pathway to a farm bill extension that will deliver tens of billions of dollars in economic assistance and investments in farm bill programs that farmers rely on,” Stabenow said in a statement. “Republican Leadership turned down this $10 billion proposal, rejecting needed economic assistance and increased conservation spending for decades. It is important to stress that this proposal is paid for and does not take any funding away from the critical natural disaster aid that has been requested. Their eleventh-hour offer fell short of what farmers need, shortchanged critical farm bill programs, and steals from critically needed assistance to address recent natural disasters. We can and should do both economic and disaster assistance, not pit one against the other.”

Senate GOP Lashes Out

House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking on the Senate Ag panel, criticized Democrats for neglecting rural needs and announced their opposition to any package lacking robust farmer assistance.

.@FarmBureau calls for prioritizing emergency assistance for farmers.

"We lost 141,000 farms in five years and if Congress fails to include economic aid for farmers, the sad reality is that we’ll lose more."

Read the statement: https://t.co/lQuJ35f2R1
— Senate Ag Committee Republicans (@SenateAgGOP) December 14, 2024

”America’s farmers have lost over $30 billion this year. And for the last few months we have led many of our colleagues in raising the concerns of the farm community in meetings, in hearings, on the House and Senate floors, and in private conversations with other Republicans and Democrats. We are deeply disappointed to learn that congressional leadership is failing to provide our farmers with the economic assistance they need to weather the crisis they are currently facing,” Boozman and Thompson said in a release “Last week, Republican leaders offered Leader Schumer and Leader Jefferies a $12 billion economic aid package for our nation’s farmers, which they rejected. It appears that congressional Democrats have not learned the lessons of the most recent election and continue to neglect the needs of rural America.”