Temperature

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:55 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

Winter-Proof Your Workforce: Keeping Employees Warm on the Job

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 17:11:57 GMT

What started as a mild winter is bound to become brutal as plunging, dangerous temperatures sweep across much of the U.S. While most of the country will stay bundled up inside, farmers and their employees don’t have the luxury of skipping work for a snow day.

To create a safe and comfortable work environment for your farm employees, it’s important to address the specific challenges posed by cold weather on the farm. As temperatures begin to drop, consider implementing the following tips to keep your crew safe, warm and productive:

Make Sure They Have Adequate Clothing

Dressing poorly shouldn’t be considered “cool,” especially when it comes to harsh winter weather conditions on the farm. However, not all employees know how to appropriately dress for the bitter weather. Consider providing them with the following checklist and keeping a few extra items in a bin for employees to use in case they forget.

Some examples of warm winter clothing include:

Lined jackets
Lined overalls
Stocking caps / hats and lined gloves
Long thermal underwear
Lined boots – waterproof and anti-slip
Wicking wool socks
Scarf

Provide Warm Break Areas

Working out in the cold can take a toll on the body. That’s why it’s necessary to take frequent breaks to rest and warm up. To keep employees going, be sure to create designated warm break areas for your employees to recuperate.

Offer snacks that are not only tasty but also provide energy. Nutritious options like trail mix, energy bars, and fruits can help replenish energy levels. You can also supply a selection of hot beverages like coffee, tea or hot chocolate. If employees are coming in from wet or snowy conditions, consider having a designated area with a drying rack for wet outerwear, gloves, and boots.

Adjust Schedules

Adjusting schedules in the winter is a practical strategy to address the challenges and potential hazards associated with cold weather. Along with allowing more frequent breaks to prevent prolonged exposure to the cold, consider scheduling more grueling outdoor tasks during the warmer parts of the day.

Keep Up Communication

Safety concerns rise as cold weather intensifies. This rings true for not only our employees, but livestock as well. Keep the lines of communication open with employees to address concerns and gather feedback on their comfort and to learn if areas of the farm need immediate attention.

Work in Pairs

While farmers are already hard-pressed to find labor, working in pairs allows employees to get the job done quickly and safely. Using the buddy system ensures that every employee is accounted for and that the work gets done in a timely fashion. This system is especially important for employees working in remote areas.

Have an Emergency Kit

Winter weather can be unpredictable. Having an emergency kit in a well-known location can be a lifesaver when it comes to coping with unexpected challenges. Keep your kit filled with the essentials, such as:

Medical supplies
Extra clothing
Blankets
Handwarmers
Flashlights
Non-perishable snacks

Know the Signs of Cold Stress

Hypothermia and frostbite are the two most common forms of cold stress and can be fatal if left untreated. To help minimize the risk of these conditions going unnoticed, make sure to review and be on the lookout for the following symptoms.

Signs of Hypothermia:

Fast and shallow breathing / trouble breathing.
Going from shivering to not shivering.
Hunger, fatigue and confusion.
Lack of coordination.
Increased heart rate.
Weak pulse.
Slurred speech / mumbling.
Dizziness and nausea.

Signs of Frostbite:

Cold skin, prickling feeling and numbness.
Red, white, bluish-white or grayish-yellow skin.
Hard or waxy-looking skin.
Clumsiness due to joint and muscle stiffness.
Blistering after rewarming when severe (expect exposed skin to peel off).
If the skin turns black seek medical attention..

A Good Coat for a Better Start

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 18:46:40 GMT

When temperatures drop, a good calf jacket can make a big difference for young calves. Cold weather forces calves to burn extra energy just to stay warm, and a jacket helps them hang on to that energy so they can keep growing strong.

“A cold calf will need to use energy to try to maintain its body temperature; energy that would normally be devoted to growth and maintaining a healthy immune system,” says Cassie Yost, dairy Extension educator at Pennsylvania State University.

But not all jackets are created equal. Even the best one will fall short if it is not managed well. Here is what to look for in a solid calf jacket and how to get the most out of it once winter sets in.

Choose a Jacket Built for Warmth and Durability

A good calf jacket should balance warmth, fit and durability. Calf specialists recommend choosing a jacket with an outer waterproof or water-resistant shell to protect against wind and moisture. Inside, insulated liners should help trap heat without being too bulky, allowing calves to stay warm without restricting movement.

“A clean, dry hair coat provides greater insulation from cold than a wet, matted coat, and calf jackets can be used to further insulate young calves,” Yost adds.

Fit matters too. Jackets should sit close to the body without gaps, allow full range of motion and adjust easily as calves grow. Coats with multiple strap points help maintain a snug fit without rubbing.

But once a jacket is on, it needs regular checks to make sure it still fits and keeps the calf comfortable.

“Leg straps can quickly become too tight and dig into the back legs of calves, easily causing open sores,” Yost says. “Remember that putting a jacket on a newborn calf is not a once-and-done action. It requires monitoring as the calf grows and as the weather conditions change.”

Keep Them Clean and Dry

Cleanliness is just as important as insulation. Jackets that trap moisture or bacteria can do more harm than good.

“Remember to wash jackets in between uses to remove any built-up mud or manure to ensure a clean, dry jacket is available for the next newborn calf,” Yost says.

Jackets must also be fully dry before reuse. Wet coats lose insulation and can chill calves even faster than leaving them bare. Farms should keep enough extras washed and ready so calves never go back into a damp coat.

Start Jacket Use at the Right Time

Knowing when to begin using jackets matters. Severe cold puts young calves under 3 weeks of age at the greatest risk.

“Calf jackets are most useful for calves under 3 weeks of age and especially for any calves that are sick and struggling with illnesses,” Yost says.

Many farms rely on benchmarks such as the 90-degree rule, where the daytime high plus nighttime low equals 90°F or less, to decide when jackets should go on. Others watch for several nights below 40°F. Once jackets are in use, they typically stay on through the winter and into early spring.

Warm spells require extra attention.

“If the calf is sweating during the day, that damp calf will get chilled once the temperatures begin to fall at night,” Yost explains. “Sweating followed by chilling will negate the purpose of the jacket.”

Knowing when to take jackets off is just as important as knowing when to put them on.

“As calves grow, calf jackets can be removed once that calf is growing well and consuming grain. Removing jackets at a reasonable time while the calf is still on milk will help them adapt to their environments now that the added protection of the jacket is removed,” she adds.

Other Details Matter

Even the best jacket can’t make up for poor bedding. Calves need a deep, clean and dry bed to nest into. Jackets are a helpful layer, but they work best when the calf’s environment is warm, dry and well-bedded.

Fresh straw, shavings or other bedding materials should be replenished regularly so calves can nest, curl up and stay insulated from cold floors. Bedding also helps wick away moisture, which reduces the risk of chilling and illness. When the ground is frozen or damp, adding extra bedding becomes even more critical.

Jackets Help Calves Use Energy Wisely

Cold calves burn extra energy just to stay warm, which takes away from growth, immunity and overall health. A well-chosen jacket helps them hold onto that energy so it goes toward what really matters.

When paired with good management and proper bedding, a clean, dry, well-fitting jacket can help young calves handle the cold months with less stress.

Arctic Blast to Bring Single-Digit Temps to Northern Plains, Freezes Deep into the South

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 15:59:13 GMT

A powerful burst of Arctic air is on the move, set to drive a dramatic temperature plunge across much of the U.S. this weekend into early next week. Meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. says this upcoming cold surge could deliver the most widespread chill of the season so far, and it’s being intensified by key factors: dry soils and dry air.

From Record Heat to Bitter Cold

Just days after record-breaking heat scorched the West , a sharp reversal is underway. A surge of frigid air straight from the Arctic is diving south, bringing widespread frost and freezing conditions well beyond the northern states.

According to Lerner: “Temperatures below freezing could stretch all the way down to the Delta,” with single-digit lows possible in parts of the northern Plains and teens across the upper Midwest.

“This is an air mass that’s coming straight from the Arctic,” Lerner explains. “And when that kind of air travels over dry land, especially with the drought conditions we have across the Plains and Canadian Prairies, there’s nothing to moderate it. The cold becomes even more intense.”

That blast will drop temperatures well below normal across the central and eastern U.S., with freezing temperatures stretching all the way down to the Delta by Monday morning.

(Drew Lerner )

Dry Soils Make Cold Air Colder

The ongoing drought, reflected in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , is playing a major role in how extreme the cold feels. Without moisture in the soil or atmosphere to absorb and hold heat, temperatures swing dramatically — soaring well above normal ahead of a front, then crashing well below normal once Arctic air settles in.

“The dry bias we have right now isn’t going to change when that cold air arrives,” Lerner notes. “So we’re going to see temperatures just plummet.”

That means agriculture producers, particularly in the Southern and Eastern states, need to be on alert. Lerner expects frost and freezes to reach as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia, potentially stressing late-season crops and winter wheat stands that haven’t fully hardened off.

While this particular cold surge may only last a few days, Lerner says it’s part of a larger pattern that will repeat through winter — alternating bursts of warmth and cold, driven by La Niña and jet stream fluctuations.

(Drew Lerner )

A Pattern That Could Repeat

While this cold snap will be short-lived, Lerner warns it’s likely a preview of what’s to come this winter. He expects the pattern of alternating warm and cold spells to persist, driven by La Niña and the configuration of the jet stream.

“This is something we’re going to see periodically over the winter,” Lerner says. “We’ll get these big bursts of cold air into the eastern U.S., followed by warmer intervals that bring storminess to the Pacific Northwest and the central Rockies.”

Those intermittent storms might deliver some much-needed moisture to the upper Midwest, but much of the central and southwestern Plains is expected to remain drier than normal through at least early winter.

What Farmers Can Expect

Coldest Morning: Monday, with single digits in the northern Plains and lows near freezing across the Deep South.
Freeze Risk: Frost and light freezes likely as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia.
Moisture Outlook: Continued dryness in the central U.S. under La Niña.
Pattern Ahead: More frequent cold surges alternating with warm, stormy spells in the West.

Looking Ahead

Lerner suggests producers might need to wait until January or February before seeing any meaningful change in the moisture pattern. Until then, temperature swings will be the norm — and the upcoming Arctic outbreak will be a sharp reminder that winter is knocking at the door.

“I’m not ready for single digits either,” Lerner adds with a laugh.

Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:17:28 GMT

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then the video Iowa farmer Dan Striegel shot last week must be worth thousands more. In the video, Striegel is shown harvesting a field of emerald-green corn enveloped in a cloud of orangish-red southern rust.

“We were just getting that field opened up, and I looked over and saw that dust boiling up out of the chopper, so I shot the video,” Striegel says.

Southern Rust? Never heard of her.
What Cheer, Iowa. USA. #pftour25 #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/tiIsUc2CHl
— Dan Striegel (@djsinseia) August 21, 2025

To date, Striegel’s video has garnered more than 48,000 views on X, formerly Twitter.

“We’re in southeast Iowa, Keokuk County, and I think the southern rust is as bad here as it is anywhere,” Striegel adds. “Every field you walk in, if you’re wearing a white T-shirt, you’ll come out of there red.”

A Red Path Of Disease Mars The Midwest

Expect to see more red T-shirt-clad farmers walking out of cornfields across the upper Midwest, based on what the Crop Protection Network (CPN) southern rust map is showing.

The CPN continually updates its online, interactive map showing the counties by state where southern rust infections are confirmed. Now, in late August, the counties look like red steppingstones. They form a checkered path from southwest Michigan through northern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Wisconsin, across all of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of the way across Nebraska. Eastern South Dakota is also lit up with a string of red counties, as are parts of southern to central Minnesota.

The amount of southern rust present in the upper Midwest is worrisome to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. In severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the CPN.

“At most, one in 10 growers in northern Iowa and Minnesota have seen the kind of southern rust some of them are seeing this year,” says Ferrie, who was working last week with corn growers in both states.

“It was a problem in probably eight out of every 10 fields I was in, and they’d all been sprayed at least once,” he says. “Minnesota has a corn crop that’ll knock your socks off – yield potential of 250, 270. I encouraged every grower to spray their field a second time except for two fields. One had been knocked down by hail, and the other had a hybrid that was clean.”

I spoke with a good friend of mine from Iowa yesterday that is an agronomist and farmer. He said the southern rust in corn across Iowa and much of the Midwest will take 9 to 12 bushel/acre off corn yields on average from what his team and himself are seeing. pic.twitter.com/Ad1VJ9oQBg
— Captain Cornelius1 (@ISU145) August 26, 2025

Hybrids Have Little To No Resistance To Southern Rust

A combination of early-season moisture, heat and wind formed the perfect storm for southern rust this season, allowing the disease-causing fungal spores (Puccinia polysora) to move from southern climes up to the Midwest, according to Kurt Maertens, BASF technical service representative for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.

“We’ve seen it all – southern rust, tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot. Our corn has been inundated with all these fungal diseases, and we started seeing them early,” says Maertens.

If there’s a silver lining to southern rust, it’s that it does not overwinter in corn residue like tar spot does. But like tar spot, southern rust takes advantage of hybrids that have no built-in resistance. For many growers, that was an Achilles heel this season.

“When you’re dealing with a 117-day hybrid like they grow in southern Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, you don’t grow corn that doesn’t have good southern rust resistance, because they deal with it every year,” Ferrie notes. “When you move to Minnesota, and you’re planting 102- to 95-day corn, you’re probably not going to find hybrids with southern rust resistance.”

Striegel says that was true for his neighbor’s cornfield, which he custom chopped for silage. “That field had two hybrids in it, one was worse than the other, and the field had been sprayed with a fungicide,” he says.

He adds that he also sprayed his own cornfields with fungicide, but they are still inundated with southern rust.

“We’ve had southern rust before, and it’s not usually something we have to worry about, but this is really bad,” Striegel says. “I’m standing on my deck looking at the cornfield next to my house, and you know, all of the leaves from the ears down in that field are covered with it.”

Southern rust is real in eastern Nebraska. Fungicide 3 weeks ago, 2nd app today with some potassium acetate pic.twitter.com/WZubU6IBwz
— Trent Mastny (@TrentMastny) August 21, 2025

How Late Is A Fungicide Application Still Worthwhile?

Ferrie says the fields he scouted last week were at late R3 to early R4 and had already been sprayed with fungicide at least once, but the disease was rebuilding.

“Any field where farmers had sprayed two weeks previously, the southern rust and northern corn leaf blight, to a lesser degree, were coming back, especially the southern rust. It was resporating,” he says.

The intense disease pressure from southern rust, tar spot and others have kept fungicide use at high levels this season, despite poor commodity prices.

“Because of that [amount of disease pressure], we have seen increased demand for our fungicides this year,” says Maertens, who encouraged customers to get applications made at the beginning of tassel.

Maertens says he has fielded a lot of questions this summer from farmers, asking how late they could go with a fungicide application and still benefit.

“Our recommendation is to get in front of disease,” he says. “Generally, we stop applications before we get to dent (R5). That’s not to say a later application can’t have some benefit, but our best results have been before infection was able to take place.”

Southern rust is a yield enemy farmers routinely face in the Southeast, reports corn yield champion Randy Dowdy, Valdosta, Ga. He participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week and said on U.S. Farm Report he believes many Midwest farmers still have time to address disease.

“We need to implore the fungicides, the technologies out there and get after it and protect this crop, especially that crop that still has not reached dent,” he says.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer likes to see farmers complete their fungicide applications on the front side of dough (early R4). “Once we get to early dent, I think it’s a little more challenging to get the payback consistently, though we’ve applied at early dent (R5), and seen a nice response,” says Bauer, who is based in south-central Michigan.

Under the tough disease pressure farmers are facing this year, Bauer is telling growers to scout fields and evaluate what growth stage their crop is in before they walk away or pull the fungicide trigger one last time.

She adds that farmers need to check the label to make sure the product used is able to address southern rust effectively. She describes these as “Cadillac” products containing the newest chemistry.

“When it comes to some of these diseases, especially southern rust and tar spot, I do believe a little bit of a Hail Mary pass can be effective,” she says. “Will it be as effective as an application you could have made on a more timely basis? Well, no, you could have made more money doing it timely, but you’re still protecting bushels and gaining ROI at the end.”

Ferrie adds that farmers might want to do the late-season fungicide application to keep their corn crop standing until they can put their harvest plan in place.

“Be doing the push test to check stalk quality,” he advises.

Southern Rust/Silage Alert!!

Southern Rust has been aggressively advancing in many fields, especially those without a fungicide treatment. In some situations the plants are shutting down prematurely and plant material is senescing rapidly.

While we typically want to get down… pic.twitter.com/aK3hGgZE19
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) August 26, 2025

Striegel says some of the farmers around him are heading to fields to harvest their silage corn sooner than later, because of standability concerns. “Some of this corn got planted early, and we had a lot of heat. The crop matured quickly, and the diseases are kind of shutting it down. It’s just dying out, and guys are going to go get it,” he explains.

That’s the strategy Ferrie encourages farmers to use in regular production corn, too.

“Harvest the fields most at risk first. But if a field of corn goes down, go combine the fields where the corn is still standing and come back to that one later,” he recommends.

The reasoning is you don’t want to risk more corn going down while you’re harvesting the field of corn that already has.

“While I was driving through Iowa last week, I kept thinking that if I built corn reels to pick up down corn I’d bulk up my inventory, because I know where they’re going to get used,” Ferrie says, only half joking. “Yes, harvesting corn at 25% moisture is expensive, but down corn will kick your butt.”

Your next read: Revenge Applications: Why They Don’t Work, Cost You Money and Bushels, and Are Frankly Illegal

Yes, Corn Sweat is Real, But Here's Why the Humidity is So Thick This Year

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 17:13:04 GMT

In a year when most meteorologists were watching signs of drought — especially across the western half of the country — the middle of the U.S. has been inundated with moisture. It’s not just been hot, but unusually humid — even for this time of year.

Several Midwestern states are reporting a July that ranks as one of the top 10 wettest on record. Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says you can look to the Gulf to understand what’s been pumping all this moisture into much of the Corn Belt this year.

“We’ve had nonstop access to Gulf moisture. So, there’s just been nothing turning that off. As a result, we’d been able to just generate huge storms on plenty of moisture,” he says.

What Exactly is Corn Sweat?
The other factor that’s pumping moisture into the atmosphere is something called “corn sweat” — the process where corn plants release water vapor into the atmosphere. As the corn plant absorbs water from the soil and releases it through the pores in its leaves, the plant can cool down and transport nutrients.

“Corn sweat shows up a lot in some of the news media,” Snodgrass says. “We just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep. But the reality is we expect to see more ridge-riding storms.”

Snodgrass says last week’s rains that caused flash flooding across Iowa, Illinois and Missouri are proof of what the ridge-riding storms can do this time of year.

“We continue to see storms running the periphery of a ridge that’s going to probably live farther into the Southern Plains of the United States. But until you shut off the Gulf, we’re going have moisture coming through the country,” Snodgrass adds.

That “corn sweat” isn’t just aiding the recent ridge-riding storms. According meteorologist Ryan Maue, it’s also fueling some of the recent humidity.

At 7 pm ET, the corn fields 🌽were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature = heat index > 115°F 🔥

Dewpoints in the lower-80s + temperatures in 90s = insane "feels like" readings 📈 pic.twitter.com/JP89U5qXzt
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 28, 2025

Maue said as of 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, the corn fields were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature, which means it felt like 115°F outside.

Much of that is because of the dew point, which according to Maue, reached in the low ‘80s. Dew points of 80°F or higher locally aren’t unusual, but they aren’t necessarily common either. It’s that high dew point creating such heavy humidity, and it’s no coincidence those dew point levels were highest around where there’s a lot of corn.

And we just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien

With 95 million acres of corn planted in the ground this year, along with all the recent rains, it explains why the dew points and humidity has been so high.

The good news is the Midwest is currently in peak “corn sweat” time, which means the dew point should improve soon.

However, when it comes to moisture, Snodgrass thinks this wet weather pattern could continue over the next couple of weeks.

“If you ask me, the smartest forecast going longer term is probably persistence. In other words, what have we just seen? That will keep going until there’s some big overwhelming push to shove the atmosphere in a different direction,” he says.

Things should dry out for fall harvest. To understand the possible change in the weather pattern, watch Snodgrass’ full forecast from U.S. Farm Report.

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:48:44 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:11 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:36:01 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

Your next read: 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K

A Warming Trend Is On The Way For Early March

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 22:01:55 GMT

If early March weather rolls out the way some ag industry experts are predicting, farmers might be tempted to break out their shorts and sunscreen.

“It’s going to be warm, very warm for most of March,” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Services said on the latest Moving Iron podcast, with Host Casey Seymore.

Above average temperatures for much of the U.S. are in the forecast for March 2-6, 2025.

(NOAA)

What’s at play currently, Hackett said, is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that could take temperatures a notch higher than usual during the next few weeks.

Hackett said the polar stratosphere is in the middle stages of developing what he called “one of the top five strongest sudden stratospheric warming events” he’s ever seen going into early March.

“The stratosphere, which normally is super cold, gets displaced and you get this extreme warming above the North Pole. When that happens, then the entire stratosphere gets unstable and starts to lose its cohesiveness,” explained Hackett, whose interest in the weather is fueled by what it can mean to grain markets.

His hope, in fact, is that the weather in early March could be a positive catalyst for grain markets. “It could offer a tremendous cash selling opportunity not only for the old crop but maybe even for the new crop that’s coming along,” Hackett said.

Maybe A Short-Lived Weather Pattern?
But don’t expect higher temperatures to persist beyond the next few weeks. There will likely be colder conditions coming in right behind them by late March to early April, according to Ag Meteorologist Drew Lerner, founder and owner of World Weather, Inc.

Lerner told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week he believes two things will come out of the current weather pattern and then go through spring.

First, Lerner believes the moisture availability in the upper Midwest and parts of the western Corn Belt will continue to be lighter than normal, which will encourage farmers to plant.

Second, he believes the risk of late-season frost and freeze across corn and soybean country will be much higher in 2025 than it has been in recent past years.

“We may see a period like right now, where we warm up nicely, and crops will take advantage of that and really get going aggressively. Then, we could turn around and bring a cold wave in and knock those crops down,” Lerner told Flory. “That’s one of my biggest concerns for spring, besides the dryness we already mentioned in the western Corn Belt.

Conditions in the West, Southwest and portions of the Midwest are going to continue to be dry, as March gets underway.

(Eric Snodgrass, U.S. Meterologist)

“I do think, though, with that aside, we will see aggressive planting this spring in the western and central parts of the Midwest, because I don’t think we’re going to have so much moisture around that we can’t be that way,” Lerner added.

Beware Of Frost And Freeze
Hackett’s prediction for April weather coincides with Lerner’s concerns. Going back to his prediction for a sudden stratospheric warming in early March, Hackett said that what often follows an SSW about 45 days later is a cooling off trend.

“You have the potential for some very cold, wintry type of weather that can easily bring in a hard freeze. That should create a considerable amount of unfavorable planting season, either delayed planting or planting that gets done and gets frozen over and replanting winter wheat that gets frost as it comes out of dormancy,” Hackett said.

Ken Ferrie recalls farmers in western Illinois were planting early soybeans by March 21 in 2024. He encouraged farmers who want to plant early to exercise some caution.

“An important consideration is whether you have crop insurance,” said Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

For farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt, Lerner said he doesn’t believe they will be able to plant as quickly as their western brethren because of excess moisture the region has received through the Ohio Valley and is likely to continue to get this spring.

Expect Temperatures To ‘Bounce Around’
As for temperatures, Lerner believes they will average close to normal but will bounce around this spring. “So we’ll be warm, and then we’ll get cold, and we’ll go back into warm again,” he said.

Flory asked Lerner whether he would put some odds on the potential for drought conditions this summer.

“I’d say that we probably have a 25% to 30% chance that we could have a more serious dryness problem in the West. But I am being conservative with that, possibly. I really want to see what happens over these next three to four weeks,” Lerner said.

“There’s no meteorologist out there that I know of that’s ever predicted a bad drought in the summer this far in advance, and I’m not going to be the first one,” Lerner added. “I’ll leave that up for somebody else.”

You can hear Lerner’s conversation with Chip Flory here:

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:14:24 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

How to Create a Winning Winter Feeding Playbook

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 14:00:00 GMT

Cold, snow, wind, and more – winter in the northern climates brings extra challenges for dairies and their animals.

“We think a lot about heat stress, but cold stress also is a factor on many dairies,” stated Dr. Heather Dann, President of the W.H. Miner Institute, Chazy, N.Y. on a recent episode of The Dairy Nutrition Blackbelt podcast.

Fortunately, lactating cows produce a lot of heat. Dr. Bill Weiss, Professor Emeritus at Ohio State University, said on a recent episode of the Dairy Podcast Show, that a cow producing 100 pounds of milk per day will generate 40 mcal of excess heat per day. How much is 40 mcal in relatable terms? About the same amount of heat energy as 1.5 gallons of gasoline.

“In the summer, that’s a problem, because that excess heat must be dissipated,” said Weiss. “But in cold conditions, it can help keep cows warm.” In fact, he said the lower critical temperature – at which their body needs to make adjustments to maintain core body temperature – may be as low as -20°F in good shelter.

But while the rumen may act as a terrific furnace for lactating cows, that’s not the case for dry cows and young stock. Weiss said their lower critical temperature is more likely in the neighborhood of 10-20°F. Accommodations that should be made for them include:

Housing and shelter – Preweaned calves need deeper bedding and the ability to nest to stay warm. Older heifers and dry cows, too, can endure winter conditions more successfully with better shelter. “There’s a lot of cost to poor facilities,” declared Weiss. And even though lactating cows in free stalls are less susceptible to cold, Dann noted the importance of maintaining and utilizing curtained sidewalls to better shelter cows in harsh conditions and protect the function of equipment like waterers.
Body condition monitoring – Fat is an excellent insulator, and Weiss cautioned against heifers and dry cows losing condition through the winter. “We know losing body condition in the dry period definitely puts cows at risk for metabolic problems,” he said. “For heifers and dry cows, you might have to improve forage quality and reduce fiber a little bit to get the energy they need to stay warm. But as soon as it turns warm, we’ve got to lower energy intake to keep body condition steady.
Increased nutrients – Lactating cows often naturally consume more dry matter in cold conditions. Dann said calf nutrition needs can be accommodated by increasing feeding frequency or adjusting the type and/or quantity of milk replacer. For dry cows, Weiss advised their energy requirements will typically increase by 10-20%, requiring a bump of 1-2 mcal net energy/head/day. “The source of the nutrients, as long as it’s digestible, doesn’t matter that much,” he stated. “You’re not going to make those dry cows fatter or produce a bigger calf. It’s just going into metabolic cycles to produce heat.”

Additionally, Dann cautioned that one of the dangers of extremely cold weather is frozen silage. If big chunks find their way to the lactating ration, sorting and TMR inconsistency can result. She advised defacing silo faces 6 inches or more at feed-out to prevent frozen chunks, and managing plastic covers on silo faces to prevent snow melt that creates frozen patches.

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Don’t Let Cold Weather Leave You Chapped: Protecting Teats in the Winter

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 22:43:31 GMT

Chapped lips and hands aren’t the only things we need to worry about now that we are in the middle of the winter season. Winter weather has a significant impact on teat skin. Cold weather can lead to teats drying, cracking, and chapping, providing more surface area for bacteria to thrive. Preparing for changes in the weather can help promote better teat health and reduce mastitis cases.

Manage the environment

We often talk about keeping cows clean and dry to prevent mastitis, but the environment can also impact teat health in cold temperatures. Teat skin is unique because it has no sweat, oil glands, or hair follicles. These characteristics make teats especially susceptible to cold temperatures. A wet environment increases the likelihood of damaged teats.

Chapping can occur when teats are exposed to air movement and drafts. Prevent cows from being directly exposed to wind as they leave the parlor and avoid rapid cold air movement in their housing area.

To dip or not to dip

Cracking and chapping of teats usually occur at temperatures less than 0° F. Temperatures can also impact which teat dips should and could be used. Teat dips that were being used during other times of the year can be used until temperatures drop below the freezing point. Check teat dip labels for suggested temperature ranges and freezing points. Symptoms of cold weather exposure may not become visible for 2 to 3 days. Avoid using barrier dips during cold spells because these dips tend to have a slower drying time because of the film they create.

At 20° F below zero, teats are at risk of frostbite. Winter dips are designed to be used during when teats could freeze. However, they often cost much more than a regular dip. Because the cold weather can impact the teat skin, high-emollient dips can be beneficial to teat health. Most high-emollient dips consist of at least 50% teat conditioners, which will hydrate and soften teat skin, leading to less chapping. However, these dips can have a slower drying time.

The goal of any teat dipping protocol should be to provide an effective germicide and teat conditioner. What should be avoided is allowing excess dip to freeze at the end of the teat. We are safe from this on most winter days, but dabbing the drop off the teat end will prevent teat end damage on bitterly cold days or cold wind chills.

With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:04:43 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

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Keep Replacement Heifers Thriving this Winter: Three Expert Tips You Need to Know

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 17:51:20 GMT

When dairy farmers think about animals impacted by cold stress, calves are often the first that come to mind. Their smaller size and limited fat reserves make them especially vulnerable to harsh winter conditions. However, it’s important to remember that cold stress doesn’t just affect calves—it can also significantly impact heifers.

Younger animals, like post-weaned heifers, are particularly susceptible as they have less developed coats, and higher energy needs to maintain their core body temperature. For dairy farmers, understanding the signs of cold stress and implementing preventative measures across all age groups in the herd is essential for maintaining health, productivity, and growth during the winter months. While calves often receive extra attention, ensuring proper care for heifers and older animals can make a big difference in the overall success of the operation during the colder seasons. For these replacements to grow and thrive, dairy farmers must take proactive steps to prevent cold stress and minimize associated health issues.

Daniela Roland, dairy extension educator at Pennsylvania State University, provides the following tips for providing adequate care to replacement heifers during frigid temps.

Understanding Cold Stress

While lactating cows are relatively tolerant of cold temperatures and can handle conditions below 18°F when equipped with a heavy winter coat, young heifers face challenges at temperatures below 32°F.

“Normally, a heifer’s winter coat, plus their natural metabolic processes, like rumination, can keep them warm,” Roland says. “But during extremely cold temperatures - especially if there is inadequate housing, lack of dry bedding, insufficient nutrition, or a combination of these - heifers may experience cold stress.”

Housing and Bedding

Dry, well-bedded pens are essential to help heifers tolerate winter conditions. Bedding materials like straw, shavings, or corn fodder should be clean, dry, and absorbent to retain body heat.

“One way to test the dryness of heifer pens is the knee test,” Roland says. “To do this, try dropping to your knees in several areas around the pen. If your knees are still clean and dry after 10–15 seconds of kneeling on the bedding, then the bedding is sufficient. But if your pants are dirty or damp, more fresh bedding should be added.”

Wet or muddy coats reduce the insulating properties of a heifer’s hair, also increasing their susceptibility to cold stress. Excess manure or mud buildup should prompt farmers to add fresh bedding or clean pens more frequently.

Additionally, heifer housing should allow for adequate air exchange without creating drafts. Insufficient ventilation can increase the risk of respiratory diseases like bovine respiratory disease (BRD), which costs farmers an average of $252 per case and can delay a heifer’s growth and first calving, according to Roland.

Proper heifer housing is another critical factor to consider during cold weather. Housing should shield heifers from environmental extremes such as harsh winds, heavy snow, and freezing temperatures while maintaining a comfortable and healthy environment.

One key aspect of housing is ventilation. While barns and shelters must prevent drafts, they should also allow for proper air exchange to reduce humidity and prevent the buildup of harmful gases like ammonia. It’s essential to monitor heifers for signs of respiratory distress, such as coughing, labored breathing, or nasal discharge, as these could indicate inadequate airflow or other health issues. If respiratory problems are detected, improving ventilation should be a priority.

Heifers housed outside also need special attention.

“Heifers housed outdoors need to have access to either natural or constructed windbreaks,” Roland adds. “Wind significantly reduces the actual temperature, increasing cold stress on heifers.”

Nutrition for Winter Growth

In colder weather, heifers expend more energy to stay warm, making proper nutrition vital. Farmers should aim for daily growth rates of 1.75 pounds for large breeds and 1.3 pounds for smaller breeds to ensure heifers reach optimal breeding size.

“Data has shown that undersized heifers may calve later than the desired age range of 22 to 24 months. These smaller heifers tend to be more prone to calving problems and less productive,” Roland says. “Farmers should work with their nutritionist to make sure that their heifers have enough energy in their diet to help protect them from the cold weather and to ensure proper growth.”

Water Access

Water availability is another critical factor in winter care. Frozen or excessively cold water can limit intake, reducing feed consumption and energy availability.

“Dairy heifers between the ages of 5 and 24 months will drink about 3.8 to 9.6 gallons of water per day,” Roland adds. “Monitoring for frozen waterers is important during the extreme colder temperatures.”

Why It Matters

Investing in proper heifer care during winter ensures these replacements grow to their genetic potential and transition into productive lactating cows. By focusing on housing, bedding, nutrition, and water, farmers can safeguard their herd’s health, prevent growth setbacks, and optimize future productivity. Taking these steps helps ensure your heifers thrive, even in the coldest months.

Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 20:30:45 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

Winter Storm Survival: A Nightmare for Livestock Producers in Western Illinois

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 18:01:05 GMT

Despite nearly 24 inches of snow, below-zero temperatures and raging winds, livestock producers are finding ways to overcome the horrific conditions in western Illinois to provide the best care possible to their animals.

But it’s not been easy on the farmers.

“This weather is going to kill me,” Chad Bell, a pork producer from Viola, Ill., told his followers on social media when the second round of snow hit western Illinois at the end of last week.

^{Source: Cole Boock, Sumner Township, Little York, Illinois}

Historic drifts have made getting into the barn a challenge in and of itself. Many north-south roads have been impassable and getting access to livestock on pasture has been nearly impossible in some situations. Bell says he had to walk from the highway to his barn for three days to check pigs.

“It took a day to get the loader to run, hauling a battery charger and kerosene to the barn by sled,” Bell adds. “A blown tire stopped what little snow clearing progress I made. It took a bulldozer to open the road and clear my driveway!”

^{Source: Chad Bell}

Extreme Weather’s Impact on Livestock

The cold temperatures continue to exacerbate every little issue, Bell points out. From keeping the outside equipment from freezing up to preventing blowing snow from coming into the feed bin lids to causing flowability issues, Bell says it’s been one thing after another for him as a farmer.

“It’s snowing and blowing, but in the barn it’s 65 degrees – nice and dry – with no drifts. The pigs are definitely enjoying it,” Bell explains. “Being in a heated modern hog facility, they can use their energy to grow instead of simply trying to survive.”

^{Source: Chad Bell}

But for Brent Titus, a sheep producer from Alexis, Ill., that’s exactly what some of his sheep must do right now – survive.

“January is so hard because we are lambing and every available enclosed space is being used to ensure that ewes and lambs stay warm,” Titus says. “Unfortunately for us, that means later bred females and replacements are left on pasture. Wind breaks are about the best we can offer them, and it’s made last week miserable.”

^{Source: Brent Titus}

Although he would like to have covered spaces for every animal during times like this, he says it just isn’t feasible.

“It’s a full-time job tending to livestock during this kind of weather,” Titus says. “Tractors don’t start, skid steers can’t maneuver the drifts, and the freezing cold has resulted in lots of gelled-up diesels. We bust automatic drinkers three to four times a day, even though they are not supposed to freeze. We do the best we can.”

Cattle producer Scott Campbell of Little York started calving when the first snow came through. However, he considers himself lucky despite the challenges he’s faced.

^{Source: Scott Campbell}

“So far, all our calves have been born in the barn. We have enough room right now that the ones we have are under roof,” Campbell says. “They don’t seem to mind the temperatures as much as I do.”

Campbell has been farming for over 20 years and says frozen waterers, pushing snow and keeping a close eye on health are “givens” during this kind of weather. But he’s never had to plow paths in the snow for cattle to get to feed and water like he has in 2024.

Prepare for the Worst

Staying ahead of the storm is key, Bell explains. On his hog farm, he pays special attention to feed bins, propane and generator fuel levels during bad winter conditions.

“In the event that I can’t get back to the barn for a day or longer, I know the pigs will be fine without me if these three things are in place,” Bell says.

^{Source: Chad Bell}

But that’s exactly what keeps Campbell up at night – the possibility of not being able to get to his calving barn that is 2.5 miles from his house.

“Most years it’s not a concern, but it has been a few times already this year,” Campbell says.

Titus is not a full-time farmer – he serves as a regional sales manager for Atticus LLC. He says it’s an all-hands-on-deck situation when the winter weather strikes.

^{Source: Brent Titus}

“My wife is absolutely integral,” Titus says. “She mans the lambing barn so the rest of the crew can do the best to clear paths to feed the places that aren’t under roof. I’m not sure the general public understands just how much time is spent simply feeding every day.”

Technology is a Lifesaver

For these three farmers in the Mercer-Warren County area, technology has been incredibly helpful during these extreme weather events.

A year ago, Bell purchased Barn Talk, technology from Barn Tools that allows him to check power, temperature, water and feed levels at the barn at all times from an app on his phone.

“It’s super handy in this weather,” he says. “It can’t pull frozen chunks from my feedline or ensure my generator will start, but I will know right away if I have a problem.”

^{Source: Scott Campbell}

Checking propane and generator fuel levels is also important, especially when temperatures are expected to stay dangerously cold for a while.
Campbell says barn cameras have been lifesaving technology for his operation.

“During winter storms, the thing we depend on most are our barn cameras. We have had them for several years and have always worked with Altman Monitoring Solutions from Taylorville, Ill. Their service is second to none and he can keep technology-disadvantaged people like myself going when there is a problem,” Campbell adds.

Titus is also a big fan of Altman’s barn cameras. Of course, he says anything that wants to start is always a positive in temperatures like this. And nothing beats a close-knit community that is willing to help each other through the storms.

Read more:

7 Tips You Need to Know to Keep Employees Warm

How Will Winter Storms Impact the Pork and Beef Supply

Winter Storms Are On the Way: Are Your Barns Safe?

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:57 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

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Will the U.S. Corn Crop Bake In the July Heat? What You Need to Know About the July Forecast

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:03:38 GMT

The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.

Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.

With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.

“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Rain Chances in July

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook . NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.

Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.

“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”

Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.

“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.

According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.

“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.

Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.

“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”

The July Heat

What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.

“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”

30-day temperature outlook

(CPC )

Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.

“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”

Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.

This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.

Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.

“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.

He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.

“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”

Dangerously High Temperatures Expected to Soar Out West

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 19:39:04 GMT

Is it early June or the middle of August? Because despite what the calendar might say, Mother Nature seems to be cranking up the thermostat earlier than normal this year.

States such as Arizona, California, Nevada, and Texas are bracing for a blistering inferno this week, with meteorologists predicting dangerously high, potentially record-breaking temperatures soaring well into the triple digits.

According to the National Weather Service, daily record highs are likely throughout the week, with temperatures soaring 10, 15, and even 20 degrees above average. Unfortunately, nighttime temperatures won’t offer much relief, as lows are predicted to remain in the 70s. A similar pattern has already caused record-breaking heat south of the border, resulting in dozens of deaths among people and animals in Mexico over the past month.

According to Melissa O’Rourke, farm management specialist with Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, many of today’s farm employees lack previous farm or other outdoor employment experience. Therefore, dealing with weather-related conditions may be new to them, not to mention the difference among individuals who may or may not be acclimatized to high heat conditions. She recommends the following tips to help keep employees cools as temperatures rise.

Keep employees hydrated. Provide water stations or purchase coolers to keep water available for employees when they need it. Inexpensive ice machines can also be purchased to help keep beverages cold. Farm fridges should be well stocked with water bottles, Gatorade and flavored water at all times.

Provide breaks. Provide workers with frequent rest periods in cool or shaded areas. Consider adding expensive fans or window AC units to employee breakrooms.

Consider specialty garments. Cotton t-shirts can trap in heat. Consider purchasing moisture-wicking or cooling uniform shirts for your employees to wear. Breathable hats can also keep the sun off of your employee’s face.

Switch schedules. When possible, schedule hot jobs for the cooler part of the day - and where preventative maintenance and repair jobs may occur in hot areas, schedule these tasks for cooler months.

Monitor employees. Particular employees – such as older workers, those who are overweight or have heart-related medical conditions – may have an even lower-than-average sensitivity to heat and require additional monitoring. Consider having these at-risk employees work during the coolest part of the day.

Fill the freezer. A cool summer treat can put a smile on anyone’s face, especially a hot farm employee. Consider keeping ice cream or frozen treats in the freezer to help employees cool off during a break.

KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS

When an employee is exhibiting symptoms of heat-related illness, it is important to respond quickly and appropriately. There are four common heat-related illnesses and each is treated differently. According to OSHA, these are the proper steps to take for each:

Heat rash symptoms include clusters of red bumps, commonly on the neck, chest, or in folds of skin. Keep the affected area dry and relocate the worker to a cooler or less humid environment.

Heat cramps include muscle spasms and pain in the abdomen or limbs. Encourage the worker to rest in the shade or in a cool room, and make sure he or she drinks plenty of cold water. The worker should rest for several hours before returning to strenuous work or seek medical attention if the cramps do not subside.

Heat exhaustion can cause headaches, nausea, vomiting, or dizziness. The worker should immediately sit or lie down in a cool, shaded area, drink plenty of cool liquids and apply ice packs to his or her armpits to lower his or her core temperature. Seek emergency care if symptoms are not improved within an hour.

Heat stroke is an emergency. The worker may exhibit confusion, fainting, or seizures, accompanied by an extremely high body temperature. Call 911, and while waiting for help to arrive, loosen the employee’s clothing, apply cold packs to his or her armpits and encourage him or her to drink plenty of fluids.

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Expect a Hotter Than Normal Summer This Year

Thu, 23 May 2024 21:29:52 GMT

If new predictions hold true it could be a hotter than normal summer across much of the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its outlook for the next three months. Forecasters are predicting that nearly every U.S. state will lean toward hotter than normal temperatures throughout June, July and August. The highest chances for above average heat are in the West. States that are not predicted to see warmer temperatures are North and South Dakota, Minnesota and western Iowa.

The same areas that could see higher temperatures are also predicted to receive less than average precipitation. Meanwhile, the eastern portion of the U.S. could receive more rain than normal. These predictions come as meteorologists say we are coming into a La Niña pattern, which is usually associated with drought conditions for southern half of the country.

Summer 2024 Predicted to Bring on the Heat

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 18:58:44 GMT

Bust out the sunscreen and cattle misters. It’s gonna be a hot one this summer if USDA meteorological predictions are correct.

Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub , shared on a recent webinar sponsored by the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation that current weather patterns are signaling excessive summer heat ahead.

He said the outlook for July, August, and September is for above-average temperatures in virtually the entire country. The areas showing the greatest likelihood for above-average temperatures are the western third of the country -- minus a band on the far west coast that includes most of California – and the upper New England states.

The precipitation outlook, on the other hand, is neutral, except for a two-to-three-states-deep region along the entire eastern seaboard, which models show having a likelihood of above-average precipitation.

Todey said there are strong signals that the U.S. is in a “rapid transition” between a strong “El Nino” weather pattern to an equally prominent “La Nina” pattern – a shift that will likely occur sometime between June and August 2024.

The current El Nino was short-lived, lasting only about a year, and followed 3 years of a La Nina pattern. El Nino patterns are typically associated with mild winters. This was certainly the case in 23-24, which posted near-record warmest winter temperatures in December, January, and February. The states with the most pronounced warmth compared to normal winter temps included North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and the New England states up to Maine.

La Nina is the opposite counterpart of El Nino. In its most recent, 3-year stretch, it coincided with dry weather in a large part of the country. Todey said Iowa – the nation’s largest corn-producing state – has been in a consistent D1 (moderate) drought since July 2021, a record length for the USDA Drought Monitor.

As of the first week of April 2024, pockets of “Extreme” drought were noted by the Drought Monitor in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and Texas. Southeastern New Mexico also has an area of “Exceptional” drought, which is the highest categorization of drought status by the Drought Monitor.

“We can’t say for sure whether the next La Nina will perpetuate dry conditions, but there is also no strong indicator of precipitation,” noted Todey. “We will likely be very reliant on getting rainfalls at the right time through the summer.”

The meteorologist has observed an interesting shift in precipitation patterns that is affecting growing seasons. “In terms of temperatures, we’re seeing an increase in growing season length by about 10 days per decade,” he noted. “At the same time, there has been a 20-year trend of midsummer dryness, with more annual rainfall arriving in the spring.”

Coming out of a warm winter is affecting moisture levels on hand. Todey said the lack of frozen soils allowed moisture to absorb more readily – the good news. But the bad news is that warmer temps caused evapo-transpiration to occur at a higher rate. Essentially, the two factors cancelled each other out.

“Iowa is currently at ground-zero for driest soil conditions,” he declared. “While not as widespread, some of those conditions also exist in parts of Missouri and Kansas. It seems probable that we’ll need to preserve moisture this year.”

Looking toward the planting season and beyond, Todey offered the following advice:

Pull back on yield goals for crop projections and inputs. Lackluster soil moisture recovery could limit the effectiveness of fertilizer.
Plant as early as possible to take advantage of spring moisture.
Reduce tillage – every time you do a tillage pass, you lose moisture.
Closely monitor well and groundwater sources upon which you rely for livestock and/or irrigation, so you can proactively develop alternative plans if necessary.

The full webinar and additional comments from Todey can be viewed here .

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What's Causing These Frigid Temperatures Right Now?

Fri, 19 Jan 2024 20:48:23 GMT

Another round of arctic freeze is blasting the U.S. The first round of cold weather brought historic temperatures, with Montana’s temperatures falling to 40 to 50 degree below zero. With another round of frigid temperatures blanketing the U.S. again, what’s behind the cold?

While El Niño can be to blame for the back-to-back winter storms, something else is spurring the cold. Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, says moisture pumping up from the Gulf is a hallmark of El Niño.

“As I always say, you can’t blame an individual or a single storm and El Niño, but you start looking at the overall patterns, and there’s absolutely no question that when you start seeing a pattern setting up like this, a storm pipeline from the Pacific coming across the Southwest and into the Midwest or east, that is El Niño,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.

The cold, however, is being pushed down from the north. Drew Lerner of World Weather says the arctic air is caused by a warming that occurs in the stratosphere, which is outside of where we live in the troposphere. Sudden stratospheric warming events, like what the U.S. is experiencing now, can be caused by large atmospheric waves in either the stratosphere or the troposphere. Planetary waves have ridges and troughs like ocean waves, but span huge distances in the atmosphere.

“The stratosphere, when it turns warmer, it expands that layer in the atmosphere and it pushes, puts pressure on the troposphere and forces cold air that’s aloft down to the surface. And then it gets spread out from the arctic,” says Lerner. “What happens a lot of times when you get these stratospheric warming events is that you displace the polar vortex and or you split it into two vortices, and that’s what’s happening.”

He says this can lead to a splitting of the polar vortex, so instead of cold air being locked above the polar region, it pushes further south into the mid-latitudes.

The good news? This latest round of frigid air is short-lived. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 10-day forecast, which is below, shows a much more mild view, at least compared to what we’re seeing now.

(Farm Journal)

The El Niño Effect: Is El Niño to Blame for the Historic Heat and Drought that Gripped the U.S. in 2023?

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 22:10:01 GMT

2023 was a year full of weather impacts on crops and livestock. From the intense heat in the South to the drought that parked itself across the South and Midwest, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says those are the two weather events that stole headlines this past year.

“When we look back at 2023, I’m actually going to break heat and drought into two separate categories,” says Rippey. “Really, when you look at the extreme heat this past year, it was focused across the deep South from Arizona to Florida, and pretty much everywhere in between. And that was certainly a huge weather story that affected parts of the cotton belt.”

From wiping out a large part of the cotton crop in west Texas to hitting sugar cane production in Louisiana, Rippey says nearly the entire deep South saw impacts of the year’s extreme heat.

“Of course, that came with drought in many cases. But when you look at these overall temperatures, the hottest summer on record and a lot of hottest months on record, that was a big story in the deep South,” says Rippey.

While other parts of the U.S. still had drought, in some areas it didn’t pack as big of a punch because it came without the heat. That was the case in much of the Corn Belt. The drought hit last year without the extended intense heat, which had a big impact on crops.

“We were very fortunate, especially in the Corn Belt, that we did not see the combination of extreme heat and drought at the same time. And that actually led to some of those better outcomes than expected for U.S. corn,” explains Rippey.

With USDA currently projecting the 2023 U.S. corn crop to be the largest on record, Rippey says the mild temperatures are what helped save the crops.

“You do see that things actually turned out better in states like Iowa. When you look at the rainfall numbers, they were abysmal, almost as dry as 2012. But then the heat just wasn’t there. And today’s varieties are little bit more tolerant of drought and heat. And the outcome was a little better than we expected,” says Rippey.

It wasn’t all good news. While crop yields turned out better than expected for some farmers, the lack of moisture continued to dwindle grazing conditions and hay stocks in 2023. Those created additional hurdles in rebuilding the shrinking U.S. cattle herd.

So, what was the culprit that caused the intense heat that suffocated the South during the summer months? Rippey says while it’s still being studied, he thinks it’s tied to one major weather event in 2023, in particular.

“I will go out on a limb and say that that may have been an early sneak attack from El Niño ,” says Rippey. “The reason I say that is that because we did have an early onset El Niño. It was pretty much in place by late spring, early summer. It’s pretty consistent with El Niño to have a big ridge of high pressure that comes out of Central America. And at times, we’ve seen it before, that does sometimes extend all the way into the southern tier of the United States.”

He says El Niño can also be tied to the shipping crisis that wreaked havoc on exports in 2023, causing massive shipping delays, as well as forcing shippers to carry lighter loads.

“And certainly what happened in Mexico and parts of Central America, think about the Central American drought that’s causing shipping problems in the Panama Canal. A lot of that, I think, could be tied to the heat in the atmosphere related to the early onset El Niño,” says Rippey.

According to Rippey, the drought in the Midwest can be attributed to the blocking high pressure that wouldn’t budge across Canada this past spring, summer or fall.

“The U.S. Midwest happened to be on the southern end of a lot of that high pressure over Canada. So when we think about that, think about the Canadian wildfires, all the smoke coming down. And we were just on the southern edge of that in the Midwest,” Rippey explains.

He says that, along with Northeasterly winds blocking moisture from the Gulf, is what caused the drought in the Midwest.

“At the same time, high pressure was far enough north that the heat and unusual warmth were actually focused across Canada. So, it wasn’t all that hot on the southern end of the high, but it was dry. And that led to that cool drought in the western Corn Belt,” he adds.

El Niño is still in play, as Rippey says El Niño made a splash once again to close out 2023.

“Now that El Niño has kicked in, it’s a strong event, it could be one of the strongest on record,” says Rippey. “We’re seeing that influence of El Niño starting to grab a hold of the reins of U.S. weather patterns. And that’s pretty normal and certainly should continue into early 2024.”

What’s on tap for 2024? Rippey forecasts the intense El Niño will lead to what he calls “pretty profound” impacts for the rest of the winter, and even into spring.

Facility Focus: Is Your Calf Warming Room Ready for Another Winter?

Fri, 22 Dec 2023 20:54:18 GMT

Oh, the weather outside is frightful, but the calf warming room is so delightful!

During a cold, blustery day on the farm, do you ever find yourself popping into the barn office to warm up? It helps take the chill off and instantly perks up your mood. The same can be said for newborn calves.

Warming rooms and commercial warming boxes can quite literally be a lifesaver for newborn calves. Dairy calves are born with only 2-4% body fat, which is not enough to sustain them long during cold temps. Thankfully, warming rooms can offer a clean, dry and warm space for a newborn calf to dry off and rest after an eventful calving.

Faith Cullens-Nobis, a dairy extension educator for Michigan State University, offers up the following tips to help prepare your calf warming room for another cold season:

Keep it Clean!

While newborn calves typically stay in the warming room for only a few hours, the environment must be kept clean and dry. Walls and floors should be scrubbed regularly to help keep disease-causing pathogens at bay.

“Without proper management and sanitation, warming rooms and boxes will quickly become a contaminated environment and present a significant disease risk to calves,” Cullens-Nobis says. “Carefully consider how flooring and walls can be cleaned if there is a steady flow of calves. If there is not a drain in the floor, then cleaning with water can become a challenge.”

Monitor Air Flow

Adequate ventilation in a warming room is just as important as it is in a calf barn or hutch. The room’s air should turnover a minimum of four times every hour.

“Don’t underestimate the ventilation needs for an enclosed space housing wet calves that are urinating and defecating,” Cullens-Nobis says. “Without proper ventilation, calves will not dry properly, and air quality will become poor enough that people and animals should not be inside.”

Turn Up the Heat

If the calf warming room isn’t kept warm, then what’s the point of having it? Newborn calves maintain their core body temperature when temperatures range from 50°F to 77°F. When temperatures drop below this threshold, the calf will begin to experience cold stress and direct its energy toward maintaining an optimal body temperature. Cullens-Nobis suggests using the following heat sources:

“Heat lamps can be used to warm calves, but carry a fire risk and do not move air around,” she says. “Space heaters can be considered if the space is small. Radiant heaters with a fan work well and dry calves quickly. Ideally, set the radiant heater on a timer or thermostat to avoid over-heating calves.”

As the thermometer starts to dip lower and lower, now is the time to make sure your calf warming room is in tip-top shape. This easy to use and relatively affordable facility might be just what the doctor ordered to help newborn calves thrive this winter.

Four Strategies to Help Cows Conquer Cold

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 01:12:08 GMT

When Old Man Winter sets up long-term residence, both animals and people have extra daily challenges. But cows are amazingly resilient creatures, and are better able to withstand cold than many other animals, according to Dr. Jon Pretz, dairy nutritionist with Hubbard Feeds.

In a recently published, comprehensive bulletin on evaluating feeding strategies for the winter, Pretz noted that cattle are extremely cold hardy due to their large body mass; propensity to naturally increase metabolic rate; and ability to add insulation through hair growth and fat deposition under their skin.

Still, there are management measures that can help cows cope and stay productive through cold conditions. Pretz advised:

Prioritize dryness – “A cow with a dry winter coat can withstand temperatures of about 18°F, also known as their lower critical temperature, before feeling cold stress,” said Pretz. As temperatures fall lower and wind chill becomes a factor, cows with a wet haircoat will have double the energy deficit compared to cows with dry haircoats.
Monitor water – Cows prefer water between 40 and 65°F. Lower temperatures may cause water and dry matter intakes to drop. Also, be sure waterers remained thawed, and manage ice surrounding waterers that may deter cows from visiting them.
Keep the feed bunk loaded – Cows will eat more when it’s cold to keep up with maintenance. But when cold temperatures become extreme, more feed may be necessary because dry matter intake is temporarily outpaced by increased metabolism, causing cows to enter a state of negative energy balance. Step up bunk and push-up management and consider feeding more on frigid days. “It’s not uncommon for cows to require an additional 20% more feed during cold weather,” advised Pretz.
Watch for frozen feed – Wet forages and byproducts can freeze during long cold spells. This can result in issues of sorting off chunks of frozen feed in the bunk, reduced intakes, slower digestive passage rates, and more energy expelled by the cows to warm up and process the feed internally. Pretz advised that, as a result, ration energy levels may need to be boosted temporarily through increased starch, sugar, and/or fat during periods of extreme cold.

“With shelter from the wind and elements, adequate body condition, a dry coat, fresh water, dry bedding, and good nutrition, dairy cattle can tolerate temperatures well below zero,” concluded Pretz.