Tornado

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Is Your Farm Prepared When Bad Weather Strikes?

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 18:57:37 GMT

Now that warmer temperatures are upon us, so is spring storm season. The wild display of weather this year has showcased flooding, tornadoes and more from coast to coast. This unpredictable weather underscores the importance of having a plan and be ready for whatever severe weather pattern could hit your farm.

Severe weather can be a detriment to your farm. Before bad weather hits, Country Financial offers the following tips to prepare your farm.

Take Inventory. Taking photos is a great way to inventory your belongings. Move cattle, feed, and equipment to higher ground in case of flooding, if possible. Stock up on extra farm supplies ahead of severe weather, like water and livestock feed.
Prepare Employees. Review emergency escape routes for each building. Remember this plan might differ depending on the weather event. Document procedures to account for employees. Create an emergency contact list for owners, employees, family members and supplies. Assign different roles and responsibilities to all employees, like who is responsible for calling emergency contacts.
Check Equipment. Ensure generators are in working order, turn off the propane supply at tanks and close any open chemical containers.
Check Insurance Protection. Meet with your insurance rep to ensure everything you own is properly protected. Also, discuss the process for filing a claim if a disaster strikes.

The Farm Bureau Financial Services offers these safety tips regarding tornados and flash flooding.

Tornadoes

On average, each year, 1,300 tornadoes are reported in the United States, and cause millions of dollars worth of damage. With winds that can reach over 250 miles per hour and the potential to travel up to 50 miles, tornadoes have a destructive potential that often puts them in the headlines. In the face of such a huge force of nature, what do you do?

Don’t remain in your tractor or vehicle. Find a low-lying area, such as a ditch, and cover your head with your arms to protect yourself from flying debris.
Don’t try to outrun a tornado with your vehicle.
Do have a plan for which buildings on your property provide the most protection. Basements are best, of course, but if you’re caught out during a tornado, a building with a strong inner structure, such as a barn, can be a safe haven. If you can, stay away from the outside walls of the building you take shelter in.

Flash Flooding

Intensifying rainfall has caused nearly multi billions in damage in the U.S. in the last few decades. Floods can be sudden and powerful, giving you little time to prepare. If you are confronted with flash flooding, there are a few tips to keep in mind:

Don’t attempt to drive through water over the road. You have no idea how deep it may be, and it only takes 6 inches of water to sweep a vehicle away.
Do avoid low-lying areas in your fields or on your property. During a torrential downpour, all that water has to go somewhere. You don’t want to be there when it arrives.
Do have an evacuation plan in place for your livestock, should you need to move them to higher ground.

Is ‘Tornado Alley’ Expanding East?

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 20:44:58 GMT

Tornados are nature’s most violent storms. Typically spawned from powerful thunderstorms, these destructive forces of nature can cause fatalities, detrimental damage, and wipe out neighborhoods in a mere matter of seconds.

Since the term was first coined in 1952, “Tornado Alley” has traditionally been located throughout portions of the central U.S., typically from north-central Texas to South Dakota. Tornados are most frequent in this region and have an increased chance of being more destructive.

However, science shows this tornado prone area may be expanding east.

According to a 2018 study , tornado frequency has decreased over the past four decades across Tornado Alley, while increasing just to the east across the Lower Great Lakes and into the Deep South.

Tornado Frequency

The study also reports negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast U.S.

Though trends point to fewer tornado occurrences in the Great Plains, AgDay meteorologist Matt Yarosewick warns that the risk for tornadic weather isn’t necessarily declining.

“The United States is the most active spot on the globe for tornadoes,” Yarosewick says. “The climate, the geography and all those ingredients are always in play. There will always be tons of talk about the number of tornadoes or the intensity. It is all due to the warming climate and the overall larger moisture content in the atmosphere. Most early season severe weather outbreaks are occurring east of “tornado alley.” That is because the east is more active in the springtime with storm fronts whereas “tornado alley” is infamous for the dry line setups on hot summer says. Different times of the year will bring many different setups.”

Along with tornadic weather conditions expanding east, frequency is also increasing.

“The conditions needed for tornadoes are occurring more frequently due to the warming of the planet and the moisture content in the air,” Yarosewick says. “These stronger storm systems feed off of all of those types of conditions and will then, in turn, produce stronger storms and potentially more tornadoes due to the frequency of the events.”

As severe weather begins to ramp up across the U.S., it’s important to keep tornado safety at the top of mind. Planning ahead will lower the chance of injury or death in the event severe weather strikes.

For recent tornado coverage, read:

Texas Tornado Destroys Ag Shop, But Doesn’t Stop FFA Members From Helping Community

‘Everything is Gone’ New Jersey’s Largest Dairy Devastated by Hurricane Ida

Fri, 03 Sep 2021 18:09:09 GMT

After severe weather associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ida sweeping through the Northeast, a tornado touched down in Mullica Hills, New Jersey, devastating the state’s largest dairy farm, Wellacrest Farms.

The Eachus family owns and operates Wellacrest Farms, home to 1,400 Holsteins cows. The family says they are still trying to process what quickly unfolded and the damage left behind.

“You see this out West. You never think it’s going to be in your backyard,” says owner Marianne Eachus. “The devastation is just … everything is gone.”

The National Weather Service has confirmed five tornadoes touched down in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania Wednesday evening during the fierce thunderstorms that were triggered by the leftovers of Hurricane Ida.

Tornado Ripped Across Farm

The F4 tornado that ripped through Mullica Hills, devastated Wellacrest Farms, toppling two 80’ silos, damaging grain bins and flattening one of the farm’s free stall barns. The family reports that all but one barn was damaged from the storm.

“We can milk by using generators for power,” Karlie Eachus says. “We were able to fix all the milking parlor mechanical issues and bulk tank issues on Wednesday evening with the help of a specialist.”

Thankfully no people were hurt and while the farm is still assessing the damage and going through the rubble, at the current time they report that they have lost only three cows. However, they believe as many as 300 cows were trapped in the debris, and the family fears the number deceased will increase as they are finding more severely injured cattle.

Picking Up the Pieces

Now less than 48 hours later, they are making makeshift pens, because most of the housing has been destroyed, as well as a lot of farm equipment. Also, two of the farm’s silos filled with feed and grain have been knocked down on top of their tractors and trailers.

The farm was planning on chopping corn silage the day after the tornado hit, but their chopper got buried underneath the rubble.

“We were able to thankfully dig it out,” says owner Eric Eachus. “Our Claas representative is at the farm today to get it running today and if not, they’ll supply us with a backup one, so we can somehow put up feed for the year ahead.”

‘Heart-Wrenching’ Damage

Before the storm hit, the Eachus family went to the basement as the tornado approached. While at first, the Eachus family didn’t think it was too bad, soon enough they would discover total devastation.

“It’s just a nightmare,” Marianne reports. “It’s heart-wrenching.”

Wellacrest Farms began milking cows in 1943, bottling and delivering milk. The family values its farm’s rich history and states that a tornado won’t be the end of their story. Dairy farm families, like the Eachus have gone through tough times before, and the family reports that the last 18 months have been a struggle with COVID-19 and they share the struggle of what took place on Wednesday evening has not sunk in.

Eric says they plan to rebuild but also knows all too well the cost and time will add up quickly.

“A sheet of plywood is $120,” Eric states. “So, I can’t even fathom what the total cost to rebuild will be. But we are dedicated to continuing on.”

As the family rebuilds, the local New Jersey community has come out to help, including bringing excavators to help lift the flattened barn roof, so cows could be freed. A GoFundMe campaign has been established to help in the recovery.

Leach Family Proves They are "Stronger Than the Storm"

Sat, 30 Jan 2021 16:06:33 GMT

May 28, 2019 was a day Rob Leach and his family will never forget.

“I grabbed our phones, our portable charger, some flashlights,” the Linwood, Kan. farmer said. “We thought worst case we’re going to have these things, and I’m so glad we did, because we needed every one of them.”

He needed those items after an EF-4 tornado ripped through Kansas. The twister was a master, at a mile wide, carrying 170 mph winds.

“I mean, it was noisy, but it was just the most incredible wind you ever can imagine,” said Leach. “Then, there was some really loud pounding, which we thought were nails, but it turns out there was my chimney coming apart, you know, hitting the roof.”

At one point, the winds and rain had stopped, and so Leach and his wife went upstairs. What they didn’t realize was the “calm” was the eye of the storm. Once the winds started back, they rushed downstairs to get back to safety.

“When we came upstairs after it was over, we couldn’t see anything, because it was raining the hardest I’ve ever seen it.”

When he finally waded through the limbs and debris covering his house and windows, the damage to Lin-Crest Farm was unreal.

“We have a lot of outbuildings, we have a shop, a freestall barn, calf barn, holding pins, grain bins, garages, silos; it’s all gone,” he said.

As a dairy farmer, Leach’s worst fear quickly became a reality.

“When we came up the hill, we expected the worst, and we immediately found that we had cattle meeting us in the yard, cattle walking all over the place, dead cows” said Leach. “But there was nothing we could do. I couldn’t even get to one to euthanize her.”

Some cows were carried more than a half a mile away.

“The one that was the farthest away, we didn’t find for 24 hours and she was the most valuable cow on the farm,” explained Leach. “She was down in a ditch and couldn’t get up. So, you know, we tried our best when we finally found her. We lifted her, we we spent a lot of time trying to decide if she was able to be saved.”

As the devastation continued to mount, what happened since the tornado ravaged the farm is something Leach says is remarkable.

“I made one phone call,” he said. “I haven’t even asked for help. I only made one phone call. And I’ve probably had a couple hundred people here and maybe more. The first guy here was some stranger who walked probably a mile to get here. He was he was just some guy that came over the hill, because all the roads were blocked for within a mile in every direction. And he walked in from the pasture and and wanted to help. He got on the skid loader and was trying to help, because he knew that the road was blocked. They probably spent three hours trying to clear their driveway. And then the county roads were also blocked. So access was impossible.”

As cleanup continues to take place, and reality sets in, Leach said he’s reminded what matters most.

“Nobody got hurt. My family is good, nobody got hurt,” said Leach. “My sister’s house, which is across the pasture, she was in her basement, and she lost everything. When she came upstairs her house was gone. And probably within 15 minutes she was over here, because nobody was hurt over there, she was over here helping with the cattle, and she never went home that night. She never went home.”

Caring for their cows, even with a natural disaster strikes.

“I mean, it seems silly, but our cows are our family,” said Leach. “All we cared about next was getting the cow somewhere safe. That one phone call s how he set the whole thing up.”

Strangers and friends helping save the cows they could, no matter the lengths they had to go.

“That night we walked 20 of the worst ones that were saveable out the driveway, so people that had never seen cows in their life, we halted them and they walked them all the way to the road, which must be a half a mile, in the dark and in the rain.”

Leach is thankful his daughters weren’t home that night. The girls were in Wisconsin, including Taylor Leach, who’s part of the Farm Journal family .

“Trash is everywhere, nails everywhere, wires everywhere,” she said scouring the aftermath. “If we ever have cattle here again, I don’t know how we’re going to be able to clean up all of the wire and nails out in the pasture. Our alfalfa needs cut and there are shingles in it.”

The farm, cows and the backdrop of her childhood ripped up in minutes.

Time stood still that night, with the clock in the milking parlor stuck on the time the tornado struck, reminding the Leach family they are stronger than the storm.

“Your friends and your family are all that matters,” said Rob Leach. “None of this is worth anything; this is just stuff. That’s what I had to tell my kids who were out of town, and thank God they weren’t here, I just thank God nobody got hurt. And none of this stuff matters at all.”

Related Story:

Taylor Leach Walks Through the Tornado Damage at Lin-Crest Farm .

Tornado Damages Dairies in New Mexico Forcing Cows to be Put Down

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:06:19 GMT

A tornado in New Mexico that damaged homes and injured people also hit several dairies, forcing at least one farm to euthanize more than 150 cattle.

On the evening of March 12, a tornado touched down between Dexter and Hagerman, New Mexico , hitting an area that has a number of dairy farms and calf ranches. Reports of the damage to the farms has been limited, but according to Chaves County Sheriff Mike Herrington at least one dairy had to put down at least 150 cows because of injuries sustained from flying debris.

Dairy farmers in the area contacted by Dairy Herd Management reported that several farms were impacted by the storm. The majority of farms in area are open lot dairies and some fencing was damaged releasing cattle from their pens or wheat pasture. The dairy that received the worst damage reportedly had a team of veterinarians helping sew up injured animals and euthanizing those that were too injured to recover.

New Mexico State University Extension dairy specialist Robert Hagevoort shares that farmers in the Dexter-area are working to care for animals following the storm.

“The impression I get is that the damage is substantial across the affected area,” Hagevoort says.

Social media images being shared following the storm show sheds for hay and equipment storage that have had roofs torn off. Tarps covering silage piles can be seen blown into fences and center pivots were blown over in crop fields, as well.

Not only did the tornado damage a number of farms, it also wiped out 10 homes and injured five people around Dexter, a town of 5,000 people about 18 miles south of Roswell. Sheriff Herrington says that the injuries to the people were all non-life threatening.

Recovery efforts after the tornado were compounded by the fact that winds continued to blow at speeds up to 60-70 miles per hour the following day, moving debris at high speeds across the open landscape.

“It’s flying around like shrapnel,” Herrington says. “It’s blowing in a circle ... It’s just not a good, safe environment.”

Damage from the tornado and wind storm can be seen in the following social media images and videos:

State Police on scene of a #trainderailment on SR 469 near Logan, NM involving 26 rail cars. No injuries reported. Wind was contributing factor in crash. pic.twitter.com/Qp6pzr0ee1
— NMSP (@NMStatePolice) March 13, 2019

Enroute to view last nights tornado damage in Chaves County came across a flipped-semi. Me and my coworker found the driver, cut him out of the cab, and stayed with him until state police arrived. #EmergencyManagement #miercolesmalo @NMDHSEM pic.twitter.com/nEwbIh9Mjy
— Sara Gerlitz Peck (@Sara_Gerlitz) March 14, 2019

Below is a series of videos taken by Courtney Munoz showing the damage on farms:

The full post with pictures can be seen below:

Tornado Destroys Wisconsin Dairy Barn

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 01:58:53 GMT

A series of tornados spread across south central Wisconsin last evening. According to WBAY.com, at least three tornados are believed to have touched down, resulting in damages and power outages in several areas.

Many dairies were impacted, including Pebble Knolls Dairy near Waupun.

“I heard the roar,” says Dick Wetzel, who owns the 600-cow dairy. The tornado that hit his dairy leveled the freestall barn where cows were housed. No people were hurt and damage to the cows is uncertain.

“It’s hard to say at this time. Some of them are buried under the rubble yet and we can’t get to them. We’re working on it,” Wetzel says.

Those cows that weren’t buried were transported to other farms with the help of neighbors and friends.

A GoFundMe page has been set up for the dairy to help offset costs of the destruction. To contribute, click here .

In addition to Pebble Knolls Dairy, a roof was blown off of the Saputo Cheese factory.