USDA Reports

More Cows, More Milk, More Global Concerns

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 16:05:25 GMT

The USDA released the February Milk Production report shortly after my last article, showing much of the same numbers as expected. Milk production in the United States is higher compared to a year ago, coming in at 18.3 million pounds, that is 2.9% higher than February 2025. However, that is 595 million pounds lower than the January report.

Milk cow numbers also increased from 2025, to 9.615 million cows, that is 204,000 cows more than a year ago. What did change in February is production per cow decreased 168 lbs., the lowest production per cow we’ve seen in a year.

Class IV milk has been steadily increasing in prices for the last 45 days due to strength in the butter and powder markets. Butter continues to see support from the strong export market as well as Easter season demand, but the Cold Storage Report showed an increase in inventory. Butter inventory is 253.8 million lbs., an increase of 27 million lbs. from last month, however still 17% from a year ago.

Cream supplies have gotten tighter than expected but not enough to bring a big influx of buying the cash market. Milk components have declined but still higher than last year and with spring flush around the corner, they have not gotten in a hurry to secure supply, leading to some weakness in the market.

There is a lot of talk about export demand facing its own set of challenges. With fuel and energy prices rallying, the cost of commodities and moving products could be concerning for world demand. Insurance costs of ships, fuel to move products are on the forefront of fears, however it goes deeper than that with concerns over the availability of the petroleum products to make the plastic containers for dairy products.

Some exports fear that even if the Strait of Hormuz gets back to business-as-usual today, should the conflict be resolved, we could still cause issues for months to come with the disruption in the supply chain. Between fuel cost, insurance costs, energy costs, or something as small as a container shortage, there are a lot of unknowns the dairy market has yet to face.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

Fewer Farms Contribute to Data Concerns

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 18:01:41 GMT

Farm groups and market analysts have been raising concerns recently that USDA’s outdated methods for data collection and analysis could be distorting what’s happening on the ground. Moreover, because the data in some of USDA’s reports, such as the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Crop Production, and January and July Cattle reports, are benchmarks used in other agricultural forecasts, reality could be further skewed, according to Mary Ledman, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently issued a Request for Information (RFI) in the Federal Registeras it considers ways to improve its reporting. The RFI includes a 45‑day comment period, ending April 9, and USDA plans to discuss the feedback it receives at its 2026 spring data users meeting on April 22 in Kansas City, Missouri.

“USDA relies on farmers and livestock producers for survey contributions, and declining participation in these surveys puts more of the estimation burden on USDA statisticians and economists,” Ledman said. To see whether declining participation could be skewing the data, Daily Dairy Report reviewed response rates for USDA’s Cattle report, a biannual inventory of all cattle and calves, Ledman added.

Ledman chose to look at the Cattle report because it has become increasingly important to the dairy sector in recent years as the primary indicator of the number of replacement heifers available to enter the national milk herd. Her analysis shows that for the past three years, 2024, 2025, and 2026, the January Cattle report put the number of replacement heifers at about 3.9 million head, compared with 4.7 million head in 2019. The largest year‑over‑year decline of 367,000 head occurred in 2023, followed by a 168,000‑head drop in 2022. The staggering declines caused Ledman to question whether they were related to lower survey response rates.

(USDA)

“USDA derives its Cattle estimates by surveying a random sample of U.S. producers. The procedures ensure that all cattle operations, regardless of size, have a chance to be included, and large operations are sampled more heavily than small ones,” she noted. “In the first half of January, USDA collected data from about 35,000 operators using mail, phone, internet, and in‑person interviews. When the sampling was over, only 52% of the reports were usable, she noted. That compares with last year, when the department collected data from about 36,100 operators and 61% of the reports were usable. It also falls well below the 80% of reports that were usable taken from 50,000 operators in 2010.”

The decline in the number of licensed dairy operations has contributed to fewer survey responses. In 2010, more than 53,000 licensed dairy farms were in operation. Fifteen years later, that number had dropped to 23,609, according to USDA data.

“Not surprisingly, some of the biggest declines in dairy operations occurred in states with the largest number of dairy farms,” Ledman said. “Between 2020 and 2025, dairy farm numbers declined by 8,043 operations, with Wisconsin accounting for 22% of the drop, followed by Pennsylvania at 13%, New York with 11%, and Minnesota at 9%. These states are also home to the largest numbers of dairy farms with fewer than 500 cows — the size category that has experienced the steepest decline in recent years and that historically has produced surplus heifers.”

High Milk Production Meets a Changing Cattle Market

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 20:54:13 GMT

The USDA is set to release the February Milk Production data later this week. If on trend with 2025 and the first numbers posted from January’s Milk Production, most are expecting another big number, if not continued growth in gallons of production.

High milk production has stressed markets despite efforts to increase value added products. Increased consumer demand here in the United States of some of these products such as protein products and ready-made dairy products has helped. Also, more exports of fluid milk and milk products to countries worldwide has lessened the blow of increased production, however the overload of production hasn’t been an easy hurdle to surpass.

Last week, the USDA released the monthly WASDE report. As expected, milk production was raised from last month, projecting February and March to be 3 billion pounds over the respective month in 2025, which was 5.6 billion pounds over the 2024 data. The balance sheet was not all doom and gloom though, Exports for Fat-Basis were projected to reach 18 billion pounds here in March of 2026. That is an increase of 500 million from the February projections for 2026, 1.3 billion pounds over March of 2025, and an astounding 6.2 billion pounds over 2024.

Expectations for the February Milk Production Report to be released Thursday are in line with the WASDE report, showing a steady increase in production. Much like what we saw all of 2025.

Looking for a reason behind the growing milk production numbers isn’t as simple as more cows equals more milk. Milk cow numbers are high, one of the highest in the last twenty-five years. However, beef cattle numbers are the lowest in 75 years. This has created a unique dynamic where cattle prices are high, but milk prices are low.

The story gets more confusing when you see dairy heifer retention at a near low. When you take all dairy cattle inventory, including calves, you see one of the lowest numbers of all dairy cattle in history. It is easily explained by the dairy dynamic beef we’ve seen since beef prices skyrocketed.

(USDA - Reports)

Beef-on-dairy calves are worth so much, that instead of keeping back a heifer and breeding for quality retention, we are breeding for immediate dispersal of a beef calf. Therefore, milk cow numbers are high, not due to wanting to produce a greater volume of milk, but to squeeze out another year or two of calf production out of a cow that would have previously been culled prior to the cattle value rally.

This sets the dairy industry up for a big problem for years to come as we eventually are forced to cull a large part of the herd and there are very few heifers to take their place. The question is timing of when we will see this impact on production and dairy prices.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:08:07 GMT

As of Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. beef cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, continuing a downward trend. Despite a year of strong prices, USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrank another 0.35% and now sits at its smallest size in 75 years.

“I would say the story continues,” summarizes Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University. “I mean, it really doesn’t change the pattern that we’ve been in for the last three years now.”

Quick Report Stats:

Total Cattle and Calves Inventory: 86.2 million head (Down 0.35%)
Beef Cow Herd: 27.6 million head (Down 1%)
2025 Calf Crop: 32.9 million head (Smallest since 1941)
Beef Replacement Heifers: 4.71 million head (Up 1%)

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, calls the report bullish.

“I think the big picture message of this report is expansion, while there was some signs of it within this report, by and large expansion remains elusive at this point,” he says.

What Are the Big Takeaways from the USDA Report?

According to Peel, the data highlights two critical areas:

1. Shrinking Cow Herd: The beef cow inventory fell 1% to 27.6 million head.
“The industry technically got a little smaller in 2025,” Peel says.

Linnell adds, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. However, that’s not what this report showed.”

2. Heifer Retention Signs: Beef replacement heifers rose 1% to 4.71 million.
“There was a slight uptick in beef replacement heifers, not enough to amount to any growth in 2026, or probably even in 2027, but maybe it’s the beginnings [of a rebuild].”

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing Inc. president, says the report indicates while replacement heifers was up 1% and those expected to calve were also up 1% from 2024 or 17% of the beef cow herd.

“From 2015 to 2018 when producers began aggressively building herds, the average number of heifers that were identified as replacements on the Jan. 1 inventory was 6.2 million or an average heifer retention rate of 21%,” he explains.

Nalivka says heifer slaughter during 2025, at 9.5 million, was down 7% from the prior year but still represented 52% of the heifers weighing more than 500 lb. on Jan. 1, 2025. In 2024, the industry slaughtered 56% of the January 1 heifers weighing more than 500 lb.

“When the industry was retaining heifers to build herds, the percentage of heifers weighing over 500 lb. that were slaughtered ranged from 39% to 49%,” he adds.

Why is the 2025 Calf Crop Significant?

The calf crop estimate was reduced to 32.9 million head — a 2% drop from 2024. This marks the smallest U.S. calf crop since 1941. This scarcity will be the primary driver for market dynamics in the coming years.

The calf crop in 1941 was approximately 31.8 million head. While the industry saw a significant liquidation in 2014, the calf crop that year only dropped to roughly 33.5 million. This means the current contraction has pushed production levels back more than 80 years.

Outlook: What Will Cattle and Beef Prices Do in 2026?

Peel predicts the small calf crop and tightening feeder supplies will push prices even higher.

“We’ve got record-high prices, and we’re going to see them push even higher for cattle and beef,” Peel says.

He reminds producers it’s important to keep in mind that it’s not just about supply.

“Demand has also continued to be remarkably good for beef as prices have gone up,” he says. “Beef prices have increased relative to pork and poultry. There are alternative proteins that consumers could be turning to, and they’re not. So that’s a very positive sign from a beef industry standpoint.”

The “Historically Slow” Rebuild

Unlike the rapid expansion seen 10 years ago, Peel expects this cycle to be much slower. Producers are cautious, remembering how quickly record prices vanished in the past.

“I do think we’re probably beginning, but it’s certainly not a concerted effort,” Peel says. “There’s not a strong, broad-based initiative in the industry. It will probably grow, but I think it’s going to continue to grow pretty slowly.”

He explains the industry has outlasted the previous cycle highs by two-plus years.

“I think producers are coming around to the idea that this is a more sustained story,” Peel says.

What is the Take-Home Message for Producers?

The market is signaling a desperate need for a rebuild.

“The incentive is there, the value of forage is there,” he says. “If you’ve got forage you can use to raise calves, the market wants you to do that. And if you aren’t fully stocked, then it’s encouraging you to think about doing that. I think the main message for producers is to take advantage of this market.”

He also encourages producers to maintain the productivity of their herds.

“We have cut cow culling so far in the last two to three years that some of these cows are going to have to be culled going forward,” he explains. “So, we got to have a few more replacement heifers just to maintain the productivity of the herd. Take care of that first and then if you need to restock. I understand the tradeoff between selling them now for what is a record price versus investing in the future, but you know, sooner or later, we have to make that investment and look a little bit farther down the road.”

Other January cattle report highlights include:

Of the 86.2 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million.
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased 2% to 9.57 million.
The number of cattle on feed was down 3% to 13.8 million.

Nalivka adds, “Only time will tell as the year progresses to determine if USDA’s Cattle Inventory is on track. One cross-check will be cattle slaughter which is an actual number reported to USDA by the packers. The inventory is generated from an annual survey number. I understand that USDA aligns annual surveys with the five-year Agricultural Census. To say the least, I have greater confidence in numbers reported to USDA that can cross-check the validity of the survey.”

He does not expect the Cattle Inventory Report to have an impact on cattle numbers or the market going forward through 2026 and into 2027, particularly with a 2% smaller 2025 calf crop.

“Numbers will continue to tighten and when coupled with continued strong demand for beef will support the market at levels at and likely above the market peak seen during third quarter 2025,” he summarizes.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University ag economist, posted on LinkedIn his analysis of the report. He shares state-level beef cow inventory estimates (of seven states with more than 1 million head) Kansas’ 7% decline stands out while Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Texas are estimated to be down 1-3% and Oklahoma and South Dakota are flat. Only Texas has a sizeable increase in estimated replacement heifers.

He shares two broader points:

While it certainly is valuable to count the number of beef cows, understand status of herd expansion, and other factors that is far from a complete story on industry supply dynamics. In short, the industry has implemented a number of efficiency gains resulting in the net effect of more edible beef production per cow in the industry.
It has become way too common to focus on supply and overlook demand dynamics. In fact, recent work with Brian Coffey documents how recent beef price patterns have been impacted more by strong consumer beef demand than any supply-side adjustments .

Analyzing the inventory numbers Peel summarizes, “It’s just amazing to me that we continue down this path. We’ve kept extending the timeline. You know, technically, with the beef cow herd and the way we look at cattle cycles, I thought 2025 would turn out to be officially the low. Well, now we’re even smaller in 2026, so we will have to wait until next year’s number to see whether this is the low. We just keep pushing this timeline out that provides even more opportunities for producers to take advantage of this market.”

Bi-annual Cattle report would be called lightly positive. 1) There was no sign of any type of January 2015 expansion (retained beef heifers +9.5%). 2) Overall, numbers came in just below the four analyst expectation. pic.twitter.com/lvNaDBusz3
— Rich Nelson (@RichNelsonMkts) January 30, 2026

To obtain an accurate measurement of the current state of the U.S. cattle industry, NASS surveyed approximately 35,000 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2026, and calf crop for the entire year of 2025 by internet, mail, telephone or in-person interview.

Your Next Reads:
Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days
CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty

Protein Demand Pushes Growth in the Dairy Case

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:48:05 GMT

Health conversations look a lot different than they did a decade ago, and convenience matters more than ever. Still, through all that change, dairy continues to hold its place in the American diet.

According to USDA’s Economic Research Service and the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) , Americans consumed 651 lb. of dairy products per person on a milk-equivalent, milk fat basis in 2024. While overall consumption hasn’t changed much, the types of dairy products people are choosing show how tastes are shifting.

Protein Is in the Driver’s Seat

Once dismissed as old-fashioned, yogurt and cottage cheese are winning over shoppers who want quick, protein-packed options. Driven by demand for protein-rich foods that fit easily into busy schedules, yogurt consumption climbed to 14.5 lb. per person, up 6% from the year before and nearly 60% higher than it was 20 years ago.

(IDFA)

Cottage cheese saw an even bigger jump, rising more than 14% year-over-year to 2.4 lb. per person, the highest level since 2009.

(IDFA)

Butter is Back

(IDFA)

Butter also saw a hefty comeback. After years of being pushed aside by low-fat trends, butter has found its way back onto American plates as attitudes around fat have changed. Many consumers now see butter as a simpler, more natural option compared with heavily processed spreads, and they’re more comfortable cooking and baking with whole fats again.

That shift helped push butter consumption to a record 6.8 lb. per person in 2024, more than 20% higher than a decade ago. It also reflects how consumers are drawn to foods with simple ingredients that feel familiar and real.

Cheese Holds its Place

(IDFA)

Cheese remains a steady favorite. Total consumption stayed at 41.9 lb. per person in 2024, the same as in 2023. However, IDFA’s The Dairy Bar, a biweekly report from partner Ever.Ag, points out that this is a big change from the mid-1970s when Americans were eating less than 20 lb. per person each year.

Milk Sees a Slight Dip

(IDFA)

Fluid milk, which has seen steady declines over the years, showed signs of leveling off in 2024. Intake held steady from 2023 at 127 lb. per person. That’s still well below the 247 lb. per person Americans drank in 1975, but the steady numbers show that milk continues to have a place in the diet. According to Ever.ag, many households keep milk on hand for cereal, coffee, cooking and baking. It might not dominate the fridge like it once did, but it remains a reliable choice for everyday meals and snacks.

Ice Cream Still Delights

(IDFA)

Ice cream offered a small bright spot on the indulgence side of the category. Consumption ticked up slightly to 12 lb. per person, showing that even with health in focus, people still enjoy comfort foods. This modest increase shows treats still matter to consumers because they deliver emotional satisfaction. High-protein ice cream is also catching on, giving people a way to enjoy dessert while keeping an eye on nutrition.

Dairy Keeps Its Place

Even as people focus more on health and protein, dairy remains a part of everyday life. Yogurt, cottage cheese and high-protein treats are growing in popularity, while classics like butter, cheese and milk continue to hold steady. Dairy is showing that it can be both practical and enjoyable, giving consumers options for meals, snacks and the occasional indulgence.

Dairy Markets Face Winter Blues: Will Inventory Data Spark Demand for Butter, Cheese and Cream?

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 17:08:45 GMT

As the festive season winds down and the last of the holiday baking is complete, U.S. dairy markets find themselves at a critical juncture, pondering their next move.

While demand for butter, cream, and cheese typically surges in the weeks leading up to the holidays, leaving retail scrambling for spot loads, the post-holiday landscape is shrouded in uncertainty. This comes after a year where dairy markets struggled to find positive momentum, intensified by a recent data vacuum from the USDA, which left industry players eagerly awaiting the next cold storage report to shed light on true inventory levels and potential price direction.

The difficult thing about the timing of answering that question is that the USDA has been slow to release data since the government shutdown. We can see the trend with milk production; we can see the spot loads trading, but recently all we had for information regarding stocks is a cold storage report that was several months old. Fortunately, USDA released its latest cold storage report Dec. 23 , the first since September’s release of data from August.

In August, cheese inventories were down slightly from the previous report but higher than the previous year. Butter, on the other hand, was 8% lower in both the previous month as well as 6% lower than the previous year. August was a long time ago, and a long time for the market to question what its inventory truly was.

Due to the tighter inventory, butter spent the week after September’s cold storage report rallying but it was short-lived. The market had continued the steady path of decline from the highs set back in July. Cheese had a similar fate with highs peaking in June and falling on a bumpy path to the lows set earlier this month. While the last couple weeks have been more friendly, the markets still have a long way to go to reach the highs we saw this summer.

Plants are currently running at full capacity with the abundance of cream available, however now that the holidays are nearly past us, it is anticipated that production will be reduced and we will begin building stock. Cream supplies have been plentiful with the most recent demand based in the retail market. However, what we are gaining for demand in retail has been offset by the struggling food service demand. Traders are mixed on their opinions about what inventory is on hand.

What information we have received is that milk production numbers are up year over year. The November milk production report, released Dec. 22, had milk production at 18,790 million pounds, up 4.5% from the previous year.

What is not being talked about is the sharp decline in milk production from last month’s report to this month. The USDA pegs the November milk production 665 million pounds less than October. That is 3.4% lower milk production in just one month’s time, the lowest production we have seen since February.

While it is seasonally on trend for winter production to decline, the pace at which production has dropped off begs the question of whether this trend will continue into late winter.

If milk production falls dramatically in the coming months, the importance of the data released with the latest cold storage report is increased. Should we find stocks low on top of the trailing production, it could be the catalyst to finally help prices. While this is grasping at bullish straws, it is still important to remember that while milk production has fallen from the spring and summer highs, we are still well above production from 2024 and have been for most of the year.

Your Next Read: U.S. Milk Production Surges 4.7% in November as Dairy Herd Expands

Shocking 7,000 Head Drop Hits Dairy Cows First Time Since 2024

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 14:50:33 GMT

The USDA released the October Milk Production report on Friday, as originally scheduled. This gets the market up to date with at least one report, now back on schedule. They also released the August Dairy Productions report Friday as well, but the market is still waiting for the announcement of when we will see the September report to play catch up for that information as well.

In a shocking discovery, the Milk Production report has the first decline of cow numbers since 2024, indicating a shift to cull more cows with falling milk prices. In October the beef cattle prices peaked as milk prices were sharply declining. It made for the perfect opportunity to send the lower producing cows to market to gain a quick revenue stream to make up for the lacking milk check as well as lower the feed bill.

It is speculated that this trend of a shrinking dairy herd will continue as feeder cattle futures have fallen over 80 cents per pound since mid-October. This gives less cash flow to the farms that have been getting by from profit from beef-on-dairy calf sales. The impact of the fallen milk prices will hit harder, making culling decisions for cows with less-than-ideal milk production more necessary.

The Milk Production Report itself was still perceived as bearish. Showing 3.7% higher milk production compared to October 2024. As well as the August Dairy Products report, showing more cheese, butter, dry whey, and Non-Fat Dry Milk produced when compared to 2024.

The Dairy Products report wasn’t all bearish though. There was a decline in production from the July report in nearly all dairy products, with the most significant decline in production in butter, down 2.9% from July production. Frozen products saw a more significant decline in production from 2024, down 5.5% to 10.1% in ice cream products, and a whopping 19.3% lower in Sherbert from last year.

In a world of bleak and dreary dairy market news, we look for silver linings and a drop in cow numbers may be just what the declining dairy market needs to have some hope for the future of diary prices next year. The old adage is “the cure for high prices is high prices, and the cure for low prices is low prices”. Low prices discourage inefficient or marginal producers. Culling those marginally producing cows may bring a shortage of production overtime and hopefully lead to higher prices. In the meantime, the industry has shown how resilient our American dairy farmers can be by increasing efficiencies and coming up with new innovations. So, while the markets look bleak today, there is still a lot to look forward to.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

As Markets Search for Clarity, USDA Says NASS Will Issue Key Reports in November Despite Government Shutdown

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 16:30:12 GMT

The federal government’s continued shutdown is no longer just a Washington standoff — it’s becoming a real-world problem for farmers and ranchers. As the days drag on without resolution, three Kansas State University economists warn that even with FSA offices back open, the absence of key USDA reports is rippling through every corner of the ag economy, from commodity markets to cattle prices and farm-level business planning.

But on Friday, USDA-NASS issued a bit of surprise. The agency says NASS will release key data in November for the following reports , some with a delay:

Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)
Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)
Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production report on Nov. 14.

With much of the agency still furloughed, there are questions regarding how NASS will have enough staff to provide those key reports. The release didn’t offer any additional details, only saying those key reports will be released in November.

However, there are a few key reports still missing, which includes daily flash sales reports and weekly export sales information.

A Data Blackout Hits the Heart of Agriculture

Until now, the shutdown has silenced the regular flow of government data that producers, analysts and traders depend on — reports like the weekly export sales, crop progress and Cattle on Feed updates, as well as the highly anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

“The fact that the government is still shut down means we aren’t getting those weekly export sales reports,” says Allen Featherstone, head of the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. “That’s a real problem because we rely on that information to confirm what’s actually happening in the market.”

Is China Actually Buying? The Absence of Flash Sales Reports Creates Confusion

With the U.S. and China negotiating renewed agricultural trade commitments , there are fresh promises of more purchases in the weeks and months ahead. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.

Featherstone notes that while China claims it is buying U.S. soybeans, the lack of USDA verification makes it difficult to gauge the truth and confirm those buys are happening. And in USDA’s announcement Friday, there was no indication the flash sales and weekly export sales will resume.

“Earlier this week, China reportedly purchased three vessels, about 180,000 metric tons, but not having official data from USDA is a major issue,” he says. “Tracking purchases becomes challenging when the normal reporting mechanisms are down.”

Despite some optimism around U.S.-China trade progress, Featherstone says markets are hesitant to believe much until concrete export numbers appear.

“If China doesn’t come through, that will lead to more negativity in prices given the size of this year’s crop,” he says. “China imports roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans, and if they don’t buy from us, that’s a big problem.”

Featherstone emphasizes the importance of diversifying U.S. export markets.

“We need to broaden who’s buying our products,” he says. “Relying too heavily on one trade partner makes us vulnerable, and this shutdown is a reminder of just how fragile that system can be when government data and diplomacy both stall.”

No November WASDE?

While some private companies attempt to replicate USDA’s data models, those efforts often fall short, according to Terry Griffin, K-State’s precision agriculture economist.

“We’re not likely to have a November WASDE because all the footwork that leads up to it hasn’t happened,” Griffin explains. “Even if the shutdown ends this weekend, that report won’t be ready. There’s just too much groundwork that hasn’t been done.”

He says the lack of USDA reports has forced brokers, trading firms and agribusinesses to depend on private estimates that vary widely.

“They’ve become so reliant on USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service that they’re struggling right now to do their business,” Griffin says. “It’s throwing off everything from national models to local crop forecasts.”

Griffin also points out the shutdown’s impact reaches beyond the boardroom and into academia.

“We have a graduate student working on a peanut production forecasting model, and she’s using crop progress data that come out every week,” he explains. “Without those reports, she can’t validate her model. The data blackout affects research, innovation and business planning all at once.”

Cattle Producers Face Growing Uncertainty

The shutdown’s effects extend deeply into the livestock sector, where missing data is already creating confusion and volatility. Glynn Tonsor, K-State livestock economist, says the absence of reports like Cattle on Feed and slaughter estimates makes it difficult to assess market fundamentals.

“The Cattle on Feed Report is something we normally get monthly. Historically, it has a steer and heifer breakdown, which would be quite useful at the moment as the most recent insight about whether we’re expanding the herd or not, and we’re not going to have that detail,” says Tonsor. “There’s also been a lot of discussion about beef prices and some accusations or desires to make those lower, and we’re actually already behind on what the beef price is in this country. So there’s lots of examples that we could give you that are not just livestock and not just crops. And the longer the shutdown goes, the longer those data gaps exist and build, the harder it is for anybody, whether it’s an academic like us up here or private sector or individual producers, to adjust.”

He notes while we did see life in the cattle market this week, if you look at what happened since President Trump made comments about cattle prices being too high , the cattle market has pulled back significantly in recent weeks.

“Roughly $200 per head has come off the value of cattle in just 10 days,” Tonsor says. “If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re still positioned for 2025 to be a good year, but uncertainty is the biggest risk right now. Anything that elevates uncertainty delays long-term investments, whether that’s expanding the herd or making capital improvements.”

That uncertainty isn’t only about market data. Tonsor says the political noise out of Washington, including renewed calls for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), adds to the confusion.

“Taste remains the main driver of beef demand,” he says. “Origin and traceability rank much lower for the average consumer. There are niche opportunities, but for most people, it’s not what decides their protein purchases.”

A Cloud of Uncertainty Over Rural America

For now, K-State’s economists agree on one thing: The shutdown’s ripple effects are growing with every passing day. From grain markets to livestock pricing, from academic research to on-farm decision-making, the absence of reliable government data leaves agriculture flying blind.

“The longer the shutdown goes, the more those data gaps build,” Tonsor says. “And the harder it becomes for anyone, whether you’re an academic, a trader or a producer, to adjust.”

Political Blame Game in Washington

The political blame game continues in Washington, and it’s creating a stalemate. The Democrats are blaming the GOP, and the GOP is blaming the Democrats, both claiming the other party doesn’t care about every day Americans, otherwise the other side would make concessions to reopen the government.

House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., released a statement on Friday, the day before SNAP benefits are set to expire, saying the prolonged government shutdown is caused by Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

“Because Senate Democrats insist on keeping the federal government shut down, more than 40 million Americans — including children, seniors, veterans and military families — will not receive their November SNAP benefits beginning this weekend. The No. 2 House Democrat acknowledged that suffering families are their ‘leverage’, confirming that this is a political choice.”

U.S. Representative Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Ranking Member of the House Ag Committee, says the onus falls on President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans.

“Secretary Rollins said one honest thing today: The government is failing the American people. Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. The Trump administration has the legal authority and funds necessary to get November SNAP benefits out the door. They are illegally withholding food from 42 million Americans, and it is shameful,” said Craig in a statement on Friday.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the fallout extends well beyond the Capitol. From families losing access to food assistance to disruptions in beef and soybean markets, Vaden warns that the consequences are real and immediate.

In an interview on “AgriTalk,” Vaden accuses congressional Democrats of blocking a “clean continuing resolution” and says the resulting gridlock could harm both consumers and producers.

“If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend,” Vaden says. “We shouldn’t be playing politics with people’s lives and people’s dinner tables.”

SNAP and WIC Funding Hang in the Balance

Vaden says USDA manages to keep the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program funded for now by reallocating money from other programs. But the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which costs about $9 billion each month, has no such cushion.

“When it comes to SNAP, we’re talking about more than 9 billion — with a B — dollars,” he explains. “We don’t have that kind of money lying around here at USDA. The contingency fund people talk about is nowhere close to that amount, and it’s meant for natural disasters. We surely don’t want to be spending that and then hoping there’s no hurricane while Congress continues this shutdown.”

Without congressional action, Vaden says 40 million Americans might not receive their grocery benefits at the start of November — a moment when both food demand and household strain typically rise ahead of the holidays.

“That’s 9 billion dollars of groceries,” Vaden emphasizes. “And those groceries include beef, pork and poultry. These are markets that are sensitive to even a 1% shift in demand.”

“A Lump of Coal” for the Holidays

As the shutdown looms, Vaden says the timing is especially painful.

“We’re heading into the holiday season; it’s supposed to be a time of good cheer,” he says. “Unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Representative Jeffries are giving everybody a lump of coal. This needs to stop. We shouldn’t be playing games with people’s lives.”

He adds that USDA can move quickly once Congress passes appropriations.

“You want people to receive their SNAP benefits? It’s real simple,” Vaden says. “Give us our normal appropriations, and USDA will do what it does so well: get those benefits onto people’s cards quickly and efficiently.”

USDA Set To Downsize With Reorganization Plan

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 18:10:23 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced July 24 that the USDA would reorganize, representing consolidation and elimination of programs and personnel.

Dubbed the “ USDA Department Reorganization Plan ,” the move will include moving more than half of the agency’s Washington, D.C.-area staff to five different hubs across the country, “refocusing its core operations” on USDA’s founding mission, and reducing overall staff. According to the announcement and plan document, the move is intended to “improve the internal management” of the department.

“Here at USDA, we are refocusing our core operations to better align with President Lincoln’s founding mission of supporting American farming, ranching, and forestry, as well as serving American taxpayers,” Rollins wrote Thursday morning on social platform X.

Here @USDA, we are refocusing our core operations to better align with President Lincoln’s founding mission of supporting American farming, ranching, and forestry, as well as serving American taxpayers.
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) July 24, 2025

The reorganization is built around what the agency calls four pillars:

Ensure the size of USDA’s workforce aligns with financial resources and priorities.
Bring USDA closer to its customers by relocated resources outside of the national capital region.
Eliminate management layers and bureaucracy.
Consolidate support functions.

USDA Workforce Costs and Location Changes

Highlighting the high cost of living in the nation’s capital — where average monthly rent in January 2024 was $2,475, according to real estate and rental search site RedFin — USDA’s reorg seeks to move roughly 2,600 of its current 4,600 D.C.-area personnel to five “hub locations” across the country.

According to the plan document, these locations were selected considering cost of living and “existing concentrations of USDA employees.”

These hubs (and their January 2024 average rent levels) are:

Salt Lake City, Utah ($1,627)
Fort Collins, Colo. ($1,607)
Raleigh, N.C. ($1,371)
Indianapolis, Ind. ($1,265)
Kansas City, Mo. ($1,140)

“In addition to these five hubs, USDA will maintain two additional core administrative support locations: Albuquerque, New Mexico and Minneapolis, Minnesota,” the reorg plan reads. “USDA will continue to maintain critical service centers and laboratories including agency service centers in St. Louis, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Missoula, Montana.”

The department says it aims to have no more than 2,000 staff members remain in the National Capital Region.

“The details are still to be determined,” adds Callie Eideberg, a Principal with The Vogel Group. “It will be helpful when we know the pace and cadence of these changes, as that will determine how smooth or chaotic this move will be.”

She agrees that the reorganization could benefit those employees looking for a lower cost of living, but the distance between hubs will make for its own workforce management issues.

“Different administrations have tried, in smaller ways, to move the federal workforce to other regions and they’ve been met with these management obstacles,” adds Eideberg. “Stakeholders, as well, will now need to travel to five different locations around the country to have their conversations with USDA instead of ‘one stop shopping’ in Washington.”

The location changes are not limited to personnel only, however. The physical buildings USDA will be occupying in the capital area will also change. The reorg plan cited costs associated with maintaining and repairing some of the overly large buildings as part of the motivation.

Announced building changes include:

The South Building and Braddock Place facilities will be vacated.
Beltsville Agricultural Research Center will be vacated over several years “to avoid disruption of critical USDA research activities.”
George Washington Carver Center, currently being used for area USDA personnel during the reorg, will be sold or transferred eventually.

The department said the Whitten Building will remain the USDA headquarters, and both the Yates Building and the National Agricultural Library “will be retained for use.”

Consolidation and Elimination

Though the reorg document stressed that “USDA is not conducting a large-scale workforce reduction” as part of the change, it also highlighted that the move is part of its ongoing process of reducing its workforce.

“Much of this reduction was through voluntary retirements and the Deferred Retirement Program (DRP), a completely voluntary tool. As of today, 15,364 individuals voluntarily elected deferred resignation,” the reorg document read.

According to the agency’s own site — both currently and during the previous administration — the USDA has “nearly 100,000 employees.” This makes the stated number of USDA employees who have taken deferred resignation slightly more than 15% of the agency’s overall staff.

Programs within USDA will also be consolidated or eliminated. Those programs and efforts highlighted include:

The Agricultural Research Service (ARS) will eliminate its area offices, with “residual functions” to be preformed by its Office of National Programs.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will consolidate its current 12 regions into five “over a multi-year period.”
The Food and Nutrition Service will reduce its current seven regions into five, aligned with the five hubs, in the next two years.
The Forest Service will “phase out” its nine regional offices in the coming year. It will maintain a reduced state office in Juneau, Alaska, and consolidate its stand-alone research stations into one in Fort Collins, Colo. It will keep its Fire Sciences Lab and Forest Products Lab.
Most “support functions” previously done within the USDA — such as civil rights functions, Freedom of Information Act responses, IT and HR, legislative and tribal relations, and others — will be moved into other agencies of the federal government in an effort “to reduce duplication” within the department.

The reorg document also notes that it will consolidate grants and financial assistance: “This consolidation will include, where feasible, the transfer of grant making and administration functions from USDA offices and agencies that currently have limited capacity to perform such duties to other offices and agencies.”

Most extension personnel in hub-area institutions whom The Packer reached out to about the potential impacts of the reorg either had not responded as of press time or reported that it is too early to provide any meaningful insight.

The News Service from Colorado State University in Fort Collins said, “CSU is continually tracking changes at the federal level and assessing impact to our work.”

Rollins: Impact in Her Own Words

Midday July 24, Rollins spoke to AgriTalk ‘s Chip Flory to talk about the announcement.

“This is just another step in the implementation of getting the government out of Washington, D.C., and getting it to the people,” she says, adding that the move “will save a lot of money.”

When asked if the existing D.C. staff will make the move to the five hubs or if new personnel will need to be hired in those areas, Rollins says she thinks it will be “half and half.”

“For those that do want to continue leading in the Forest Service or working hard on food stamps or, of course, our key work supporting farmers and ranchers, they’re going to have an amazing opportunity to move to, frankly, a better part of the country,” she says. “Out of Washington, D.C., better quality of life, better cost of living and continue to serve the great people of our country. I think that’s a win-win.”

For those who don’t want to move, she says “there are plenty of opportunities in the private sector.”

Rollins adds that the transition is not going to be easy, but the department is ready to do hard work that will streamline its operations and bring services closer to the communities being served. She gave the example of the Forest Service.

“A lot of people don’t know that the USDA manages all of our national forests. We’ve got 11,000 full-time firefighters on the USDA payroll that are constantly battling our fires and are the frontliners,” she says. “The fact that that leadership is in Washington, D.C., but most of the fires are in the West — that doesn’t make any sense. Why don’t we have the leadership of the Forest Service closer to the fires and the firefighters that they serve?”

Milk Output Climbs in April on Bigger Herds, Better Yields

Thu, 22 May 2025 15:50:55 GMT

Milk production across the U.S. continued to climb in April, with total output reaching 19.4 billion pounds, up 1.5% compared to the same month last year, according to USDA data. In the 24 major dairy states, production hit 18.6 billion pounds, a 1.6% year-over-year increase.

April 2025 Monthly Milk Production

(USDA)

Driving the growth was a combination of larger herds and higher production per cow. Nationally, cow numbers reached 9.43 million head, up 89,000 from April 2024 and 5,000 from March 2025. In the top 24 states, the dairy herd stood at 8.98 million head, 93,000 more than a year ago.

April 2025 Monthly Milk Cows

(USDA)

Productivity also saw modest gains. The average cow in the major dairy states produced 2,071 lb. of milk in April, 12 lb. more than last year. Nationwide, production per cow was 2,055 lb., up 11 lb. from a year ago.

April 2025 Monthly Milk Per Cow

(USDA)

The data also included a slight upward revision to March milk production, increasing last month’s estimate by 26 million pounds. The continued growth in production could signal increased pressure on prices but also provides additional supply to meet both domestic and export demand.

Some analysts say the latest figures show solid momentum building within the industry, even if future growth could be tempered.

“While a 1.5% gain in U.S. output isn’t jaw-dropping, it’s still the largest year-over-year advance since 2022,” says Phil Plourd, head of insights at Ever.Ag. “At a high level, we’ve seen decent margin opportunities over the past several months. The forward look isn’t quite as robust, but it still looks to be in the go zone on paper. Growth would likely be even stronger if we had a lot more heifers, but we’re continuing to keep cow numbers above year-prior levels on lighter culling.”

As summer approaches, industry watchers will be keeping a close eye on feed costs, weather and global demand, all key factors that will influence how long this growth trend can continue.

Your Next Read: Global Cheese Appetite is Powering Growth for U.S. Dairy

Rising Butterfat Content in Milk Translates into More Products

Tue, 13 May 2025 15:01:16 GMT

U.S. dairy producers have been increasing the components, especially butterfat, in milk and the improvement has resulted in more dairy products being made with the same amount of milk. Abundant cream this spring coupled with plenty of milk has resulted in weak cream multiples—until recently, according to Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

“Cream multiples are starting to tick up as ice cream season begins, which will make cream less of a bargain for butter and cheese manufacturers. But plenty of cream is still available for makers of fat-heavy dairy products,” Berning said. “Looking ahead, though, cheese and butter prices will need to remain low enough to keep exports moving, or U.S. dairy stocks could start to pile up.”

Using data from USDA’s Agricultural Prices and Milk Production reports, U.S. dairy producers increased the total butterfat content in milk by 82 million pounds in the first quarter of this year. That’s 3.4% more than the same quarter in 2024, Berning noted.

“A sizable share of the excess cream has gone into butter,” she said. Year to date through March, butter production of nearly 650 million pounds was up 5% compared to the first quarter of 2024, adjusted for leap year. Using 80% fat as the standard, Berning said that means that butter makers have put nearly 25 million pounds more milkfat through their churns this year compared to the same period last year.

Butter makers have soaked up substantially more in 2025 than other users of butterfat, Berning noted. For example, production of regular ice cream dropped 7.9% year over year in March to 60.3 million gallons. “That means ice cream makers used 2.8 million pounds less fat than they did in March 2024. The decline in low-fat ice cream production has been notable, too,” she said. March’s total output of low-fat ice cream at 35.4 million gallons fell 8.9% year over year, which equates to 937,000 lbs. less fat being used by markers of these products.

First-quarter production of cream cheese and Neufchatel, both high-fat products with milkfat contents of nearly 34.5%, was also down relative to the same period in 2024. Through March, manufacturers of cream cheese and Neufchatel made 6.3 million pounds less of these products, which has already resulted in an additional 2.2 million pounds of available butterfat this year.

“There have been some bright spots, though,” Berning said. “Cheese is the largest user of U.S. milkfat, and Natural American varieties, which have a higher-fat content than Mozzarella, appear to be making a comeback. Stronger demand has increased fat intake in Natural American vats by 15 million pounds in the first quarter of 2025.”

Your Next Read: USDA Forecasts Higher Milk Output, Softer Prices in 2026

USDA Forecasts Higher Milk Output, Softer Prices in 2026

Mon, 12 May 2025 20:06:33 GMT

U.S. milk production is expected to rise in 2026, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, fueled by a larger national herd and slight gains in productivity per cow. However, despite the production bump, producers may face downward pressure on prices.

According to USDA, U.S. milk production for 2026 is forecast at 227.9 billion lbs., up from the 227.3 billion lbs. projected for 2025 in the May update. This marks a continuation of slow but steady growth. After a decline in 2024 (down to 225.9 billion lbs.), output is rebounding, with production forecast to climb nearly 2 billion lbs. over the next two years.

Domestic consumption is expected to grow across the board, yet stronger milk supplies are likely to outpace demand. USDA anticipates that domestic and global market dynamics will weigh on dairy product values. As milk supplies grow, prices for key dairy commodities, including cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey, are forecast to soften in 2026. This will likely lead to a drop in Class III and Class IV milk prices. The average all-milk price is projected at $21.15 per hundredweight, down from this year’s forecast

Trade dynamics are also expected to play a notable role in shaping 2026 market conditions. U.S. commercial exports are forecast to decline on a milk-fat basis, in part due to increased global competition and shifting demand patterns. However, on a skim-solids basis, exports are expected to rise, largely driven by gains in whey product shipments. This indicates growing opportunities in select global markets, even as overall export volumes adjust. Imports are projected to move higher in 2026, particularly on a fat basis, with butter imports leading the charge. USDA also expects modest increases in skim-solids imports.

Your Next Read: The Path to Fair Trade: The Emerging U.S.-UK Dairy Agreement

Another Week of Major Planting Progress Wraps Up April

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:52:25 GMT

At this point in April, the majority of the farmers have buckled in for spring planting. And with another week of favorable conditions in the tractor’s rearview mirror, USDA has released the latest update on planting progress.

As of April 27, the report calculates 24% of corn and 18% of soybeans are in the ground. That’s up from 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans at this time last week.

The most progress since the last report goes to:
Corn

North Carolina (18% gain)
Minnesota (17% gain)
Iowa, Tennessee and South Dakota (16% gain)

Soybeans

Mississippi (19% gain)
Iowa and Louisiana (14% gain)
Arkansas (13% gain)

Progress up to this point is right on track with last year — with corn 1% behind and soybeans 1% ahead of the 2024 numbers.

Good Conditions To Go Around
With warm, sunny weather and rain where it’s needed, farmers are starting to feel cautiously optimistic for what’s ahead this growing season.

Started beans today. I thought the conditions were great before the rain the other day, even better now. After the last 2 wet miserable planting seasons I'll take it. Hopefully I don't jink myself #plant25 #notill pic.twitter.com/B3azISX2PF
— Bryan Biegler (@BryanBiegs) April 26, 2025

This oughta ease some drought concerns for a while around here. Already double what the forecast was pic.twitter.com/ENOizKjJGu
— Jacob Birklid (@NDSodbuster) April 28, 2025

In fact, conditions have been so good, some growers (like this Minnesota farmer) are way ahead of schedule.

And just like that, 2025 corn is planted. I can only remember being done with corn in April once before. #plant25 @MSP_Traffic pic.twitter.com/kBzZVPpxEz
— Shawn Anderson (@AndersonSM24680) April 27, 2025

They might even be wondering, “What’s the catch?”

It will either be a bin buster or a drought. It will be one or the other, I have not seen ground work up this nice in several years pic.twitter.com/klaAIP5GHx
— Greg Zimpleman (@gregzimpleman) April 27, 2025

Maybe it’s the ongoing windy conditions .

Planting soybeans into a great stand of rye. You can see the dirt blowing in the distance.

38mph wind gusts at the moment pic.twitter.com/JqipfrVtFk
— Ben Longlet 🇺🇸🌽🌱 (@blonglet) April 26, 2025

Or the forecast for the week ahead.

Let’s get crackin’! But actually let’s wait until after all this predicted hail tomorrow night…. pic.twitter.com/Zky90AX0x8
— Nicole Stecklein (@NicoleStecklein) April 27, 2025

🚨Here's our updated thinking for severe weather threats on Tuesday. Greatest timeframe of concern is from 1PM - 9PM ET. All hazards on the table. pic.twitter.com/WjSUuScifW
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 27, 2025

Whether you’ll be making progress this week, or on a severe weather delay, take a lesson from this farmer-in-training. Grab a snack, pet your dog and catch your breath.

Tractor naps were the best pic.twitter.com/bzP1IF0798
— C Bar J (@CbarJRanch) April 27, 2025

Your Next Read: Want to Boost Soybean Yields But Not Costs? Sunlight Can Help

Planted Acres Soar As Mother Nature Plays Nice (For A Few Days)

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 21:36:02 GMT

Last week’s warm temperatures and handful of rain-free days were a perfect recipe for spring planting — and farmers took full advantage of the opportunity.

Great week of farming. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/KKneurz4Ay
— Travis L (@fishliveinwater) April 19, 2025

At this time last week, USDA reported 4% of corn and 2% of soybean acres had been planted. As of April 20, those numbers have jumped to 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans.

The states with the biggest gains in corn this past week include:

Missouri (24% gain)
North Carolina (23% gain)
Iowa and Kansas (16% gains)

For soybeans, the top states are:

Louisiana (34% gain)
Mississippi (20% gain)
Arkansas (18% gain)

This year’s progress is just ahead of 2024 — up 1% in corn and soybeans alike.

Making Progress While You Can
Not wanting to miss out on Mother Nature cooperating for a few days, some farmers are sharing this is the earliest they’ve planted.

Joined the party. Earliest I’ve ever planted. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/x5yCzGurUf
— Roger Warner (@JDFarmboy) April 18, 2025

This agronomist found corn that’s already emerging in Illinois. USDA reports 2% of the overall corn crop has emerged — mostly in Texas and North Carolina.

We have corn emergence near Stonington, IL. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/oRKQX1AOgR
— Stephanie Porter (@skporter) April 21, 2025

Rain Where It’s Needed?
While a dry spell during planting season is usually good news, there are still many parts of the country in desperate need of a good rain.

It’s dry in Nebraska, @RichVelde! #plant25 pic.twitter.com/kdglMjbkoM
— 🌽 John and my sidekick, Quila 🌾 (@CornDogQuila) April 18, 2025

In fact, as of April 15, USDA reports 30% of corn production and 23% of soybean production occurs in areas currently experiencing some degree of drought.

(USDA)

Though it won’t be enough to reverse a drought, planting did come to a halt over the weekend for some of those states in need of moisture. Farmers’ freshly planted crop received a solid soak as they got a quick break to enjoy time with family.

We got the crust softening rain plus some the corn needed. pic.twitter.com/o2hWbmP2p6
— Zach Townsend (@TandTAg) April 20, 2025

Don’t forget: Legend has it that rain on Easter means rain for another seven Sundays. Plan accordingly.

Rain for the next 7 Sundays??? pic.twitter.com/dYmHLfoLkj
— SharkFarmer (@sf28430) April 20, 2025

Your Next Read: No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Corn Acres Top 95 Million, But There's a Silver Lining in USDA's March Acreage Report

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:05:59 GMT

USDA’s first survey-based acreage report of the year confirmed one thing: U.S. farmers plan to plant considerably morn corn acres than they did in 2024. But even with corn acres coming in above 95 million, and nearly 1 million acres more than what the trade anticipated, the corn market seemed unfazed by the news.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report estimates U.S. farmers will plant:

95.3 million acres of corn, up 5% from 2024
83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4% from last year
45.4 million acres of wheat, down 2% from 2024
9.87 million acres of cotton in 2025, down 12%.

Total corn and soybean acres in the March report equal 178.8 million, which is up 1.1 million from a year ago.

The corn acreage came in above the average trade guess, which was 94.361 million, but the USDA survey results were below the soybean prereport estimates, which was 83.76 million acres. Why weren’t traders more surprised by USDA’s large acreage number for corn?

“I think it’s probably because there was also the expectation that no matter how high the number on corn plantings that it would be the smallest number of the year on corn plantings,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk” and Farm Journal’s economist. “So, the trade was leaning up on the corn number, but don’t rule out it having a negative impact by the end of the day.”

Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri , says even though 95.3 million is above the average trade guess, it’s not as high as what some expected.

“There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” says Brown. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week and new crop soybeans up 22 cents per bushel. If true, today’s planting intentions report would have been disappointing to them and trigger a reversal of last week’s movement. It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”

According to USDA’s report, total corn acreage is expected to be up 5%, with some of the biggest increases coming in the South.

Arkansas: Up 42%
Mississippi: Up 41%
Tennessee: Up 29%

“Iowa was the biggest amongst the I-States at over a half a million acres higher,” AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett told AgDay’s Michelle Rook . “That’s no surprise. As I’ve been in Iowa several times this winter. I’ve heard over and over that they’re going to be heavy corn growers have told me that personally that it just didn’t work for them to plant soybeans. Then, if you add up Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, you’re over 1.1 million acres of additional corn.”

Bennett says the entire Midwest is seeing higher corn acres in 2025, as well.

“I understand that profit margins are still raised or thin. It’s just that we all know that U.S. growers love to plant corn first of all, and second of all, with $10 cash beans for the bids for beans, t that was a big factor for a lot of these folks,” Bennett added in his interview with Rook.

Shift in Acreage and Potential Impact on Yield
If farmers want to search for something positive in USDA showing such a large number of acres being planted in corn this year, Flory says you don’t have to go far. And that’s the fact that some of the large acreage shifts are coming in the fringe acres, which could bring down the national average yield on corn.

“The movement of acres from cotton and spring wheat to corn should make it tough to get to the 181 bu. per acre for a national average corn yield that USDA currently has penciled in,” Flory says.

If you dig into the details of USDA’s acreage report, and look at where the acres went, the 2025 principal crops planted acreage number fell in the Plains, but corn acres actually increased in some of those states.

“We haven’t hit the USDA trend line yield the last seven years causing many to wonder if the trend has changed and drawing the ire of many producers, so, the 181 bu. per acre number is already under question,” says Brown. “However, where corn increases matters. Of states with an average yield over 181 bushels per acre, which is 14, 13 of them had an increase in corn acreage relative to 2024. One could thus then make the case- we have increase corn acreage in states with state wide yield averages better than 181 bu. per acre.”

Soybean Acres Slip

The pretrade estimates were wide for corn, ranging from above 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range was 82.5 million to 85.5 million. USDA’s actual report number came in at 83.5 million, which was only 1 million acres higher than the lowest trade estimate. So, why did the soybean market trend lower after the report? Flory says it’s the opposite of corn.

“There was an attitude that the bean number would be the biggest we see this year, so the trade was leaning down on the bean number,” Flory explains.

Biggest Surprises Out of USDA’s Reports
The fact that the March 31 reports included Prospective Plantings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) means the markets have a lot of information to digest. But what are the biggest surprises?

Here’s Flory’s list:

That the market surveys did a fantastic job of identifying the March 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks. Wheat stocks are a touch heavy but not enough to make a difference.
Also, USDA printed a cotton plantings number below 10 million. “I think that’s important, even if the market doesn’t — wow,” Flory says.
Spring wheat at 10 million seedings is a bullish number.

For Brown, the biggest surprise wasn’t in acreage; it was the fact the March Grain Stocks report didn’t produce any shocks to the market.

“Maybe it’s adrenaline- but I was surprised the stocks report was as accurate as it was as it can be full of surprises especially for corn,” says Brown “However, corn came in spot on and the smallest surprise in the corn quarterly stocks since I started tracking in 2018/2019. Beans and wheat were also relatively small surprises.”

Brown says the total prospective acreage number wasn’t really a surprise, but he does question if U.S. farmers will hit that total this year.

“I just don’t know if producers will break their necks to plant everything this year,” says Brown.

Brown also points out sorghum was able to increase acreage in 2025 vs 2024 by 265,000 acres.

“Sorghum prices have been relatively weak compared to corn- but it is dry in Kansas and that could incentivize people to plant more of crops that do better in dry conditions,” says Brown.

Your Next Read:
Where Did the Acreage Shifts Come From and What Does it Mean for Prices?

What USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates Would Shock the Market On Monday?

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 14:06:53 GMT

Anticipation has been building ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday, March 31. Not only is USDA releasing its first survey-based acreage report of the year, but it’s the week President Donald Trump is set to unleash reciprocal tariffs. Market analysts warn it could be an explosive week in the markets, and farmers should prepare.

Pre-report corn acreage estimates by Reuters range from north of 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range is 82.5 million to 85.5 million.

🇺🇸Analysts see 2025 U.S. #corn plantings at 94.36 million acres and #soybeans at 83.76 million.
▪️Larger-than-normal range of estimates on corn; 3 of 22 analysts above 95.0M
▪️-3.8% predicted drop in soy acres YOY, the largest drop analysts have predicted in March since 2007 pic.twitter.com/itlriMiDGv
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) March 25, 2025

USDA’s first glimpse at acreage, though it wasn’t survey-based, was during the Ag Outlook Forum in February. At that time, the agency’s corn estimate came in at 94 million acres, which caught the market by surprise. What would shock the market this time? That’s the question U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan had for market analysts this week.

“I think most people are thinking it’s going to be something closer to 95 [million],” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, told U.S. Farm Report. “If we printed a 96 number that would be a surprise and the market would have to probably trade lower. That’s the working numbers I’m going with as to what the market has already built into the current price of corn.”

As Mike North, Ever.Ag’s principal of risk management, has traveled the country he’s encountered producers embracing more corn.

“[For corn] to come out higher than what the USDA Ag Outlook Forum projected in February would not be a real shock to me. I think even in this last day you’re seeing it’s settling into what could be a larger number,” North says.

For soybeans, USDA projected 84 million acres in February, which was down 3.1 million acres from the previous year’s final estimate. Hackett thinks soybeans’ double digit price gains on Thursday was the market anticipating lower acres.

“I think that the market, if you’re looking at soybeans, has been pulling in. We started to get some upside Thursday,” he says. “I think the market is starting to get a little worried about a low number and maybe having to reprice the soybean market relative to corn to maybe get those numbers back into balance by the time we get to the June acreage report. There’s been very interesting action in soybeans the last few days and how it’s trading relative to corn and wheat.”

Ahead of Monday’s report, AgWeb compiled details of some of the private acreage estimates.

AgMarket.net Pegs Corn Acres North of 95 Million

Co-founder of AgMarket.net Matt Bennett explains their 45-person team surveyed growers for data.

The brokerage firm is pegging corn acres at 95.39 million.

“Every region, quite frankly, had higher corn acres,” Bennett says. “A couple of retailers in central Illinois said this is the biggest spring run they’ve had for corn-on-corn acres in a long time.”

Soybean acres in the AgMarket.net report sit at 82.75 million.

“Growers just keep telling us we can’t make money with sub $10 beans,” Bennett says.

All wheat acres total 47.82 million, according to the AgMarket.net report, despite spring wheat acres holding strong. The firm points to overall wheat profitability affecting acres.

The estimates from the brokerage and consulting group have been fast-developing as Bennett says pre-plant decisions are still evolving thanks to the weather and the markets.

“There were some [planting] changes made, two weeks ago, literally. I think some folks were putting on anhydrous and said, ‘This is going on like a dream, and then they looked up, saw their cash fall bid for soybeans at $9.70 and thought, I don’t want to do that, I want to do this,’” Bennett says.

Allendale Estimate Falls Below 94 Million Corn Acres

Allendale’s annual acreage survey results confirm higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.

Their survey shows corn planting intentions of 93.981 million acres, which would be up 3.4 million from 2024. Using 91.23% harvested and a 182.3 bu. per acre yield, production lands at a record 15.633 billion bushels, which is 767 million bushels more than 2024. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, says that raises corn ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels versus 1.54 billion bushels for this year.

Allendale tallies soybean planting intentions at 84.283 million acres. At 98.79% harvested and 52.7 bu. per acre, production totals 4.391 billion bushels, which is 24 million more than last year.

“On the corn side, there were no real surprises compared to what the trade is talking about,” Nelson says. “On the soybean side, which is about 2.8 million lower than last year, that’s maybe a little trimmer than some other people as far as what we happen to be hearing. The biggest question for ourselves in the survey was actually about the spring wheat numbers. Mind you, the Ag Outlook Forum numbers implied no drop in spring wheat for this year, but we’re seeing clear confirmations of some pretty good drops.”

Wheat acreage is estimated at 45.863 million acres, down 0.2 million from last year. Using 81.82% harvested and a 50.1 bu. per acre yield, production comes in at 1.879 billion bushels, which would be 92 million more than last year.

FBN Sees A Shift Away Soybean Acres

FBN’s survey included almost 1,000 responses from its farmer-member network. Cody Bills, director of U.S. Market Advisory & Brokerage at Farmer’s Business Network, says the company has done this report for five years with only a 1.3% error versus USDA’s numbers.

Compared with 2024 crop acres, FBN’s report shows corn acres up nearly 5 million acres in 2025 to 95.5 million acres.

“For corn, we are on the higher side of analysts’ expectations,” Bills says. “It’s a broad shift out of soybeans into corn — out of beans in Iowa, out of beans in Illinois and out of beans in Indiana.We also saw some notable shifts in North Dakota out of spring wheat into corn, and we saw some broad switching out of cotton into corn.”

The shift from soybeans leads to a 3.6 million acre dip comparing 2024 to prospective 2025 data.

“There’s uncertainty around the demand side of soybeans,” Bills says. “When you look at spring prices, when you think about crop insurance, corn is at $4.70, so 4¢ higher than last year. Soybeans are almost $1 lower. The ratio of bean prices to corn prices have slipped. The ratio of soybeans to corn is 2.2:1 this year compared to last year when we were 2.5:1.”

Adding up acres for corn and soybeans, FBN expects that total to be over 179 million.

“We saw some acres out of sorghum into corn. In general, we felt pretty comfortable being in line with the Ag Outlook Forum, which was somewhere around 178 and we’re sitting right around 179,” BIlls says.

Pro Farmer Expects Total Planted Acres to Jump 1 Million

Results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signal there will be a notable shift from soybeans to corn this year. Total corn and soybean plantings are projected at 178.8 million acres, which would be up 1.11 million acres (0.6%) from last year. Total acres planted to corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton are expected to be down roughly 1 million acres at 233.9 million.

“This year happens to be one of the years with some bigger movement, especially on the corn side,” says Brian Grete with ProFarmer.

Based on Pro Farmer’s analysis of survey responses, producers intend to plant 93.75 million acres of corn this year, up nearly 3.2 million acres (3.5%) from last year. Corn acres are expected to increase in all but one key state, South Dakota, with Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota acres to jump 4% or more and the cotton states signaling a 3.7% increase.

Producers indicate they intend to plant 85 million acres to soybeans this year, down 2.05 million acres (2.4%) from last year. Of the top nine soybean-producing states, six are projected to decrease plantings. Among states indicating a decline, soybean acres are projected to fall an average of 4%. The states noting higher plantings, which are South Dakota, Ohio and Minnesota in the Midwest, are expecting modest increases.

“About two-thirds of the corn acres that are gained are attributable to soybeans,” Grete says. “Every region except the Northern Plains is expected to see a decline in soybean acres.”

Part of that swing can be attributed to prevent plant acres coming back into production, not necessarily a switch from another crop, he adds. Declines in anticipated soybean acres in cotton states are the greatest at 3.9%.

Total wheat acres are projected at 45.4 million, down 680,000 acres (1.5%) from last year. Spring wheat seedings as a whole are expected to decline 590,000 acres (4.6%) to 12.1 million acres. The Pro Farmer survey shows Northern Plains producers will favor durum over other spring wheat. Other spring wheat acres are projected to decline, which is not overly surprising given current prices, Grete says. Contrary to USDA’s winter wheat seedings estimate in January, winter wheat acres are expected to be down modestly. Acres in historical winter wheat areas dropped while Midwest states signaled an uptick. Relatively longer growing seasons and favorable insurance regulations have encouraged Midwesterners to double crop wheat and soybeans.

Latest Milk Production Report Reveals Declining Cow Numbers and Falling Milk Prices for 2025

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 19:49:03 GMT

U.S. milk production is not off to a record-setting start now that 2025 is underway. According to the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Milk Production report, forecasts indicate a decline in milk production due to lower anticipated cow inventories, signaling a tighter supply environment.

Production Forecasts
The February milk production forecast came in at 226.9 billion lbs., down slightly from last month’s projection of 227.2 billion lbs. However, this remains nearly 1 billion lbs. ahead of last year’s estimated production of 225.8 billion lbs.

On a fat basis, domestic milk use is expected to decline as reduced production and lower imports limit available supplies. Fat basis exports are also projected to drop to 11.8 billion lbs., down from last month’s forecast of 11.9 billion lbs. While butter exports are anticipated to rise, they will be outweighed by reductions in fluid and dry milk as well as cream product exports. Similarly, on a skim-solids basis, domestic use is forecasted to decrease due to lower production while exports are set to decline primarily due to reduced shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey.

Price Forecasts
Milk and dairy product price forecasts for 2025 reflect the revised price formulas introduced under the Federal Milk Marketing Order, officially published in the Federal Register on January 17, 2025, by the Agricultural Marketing Service. According to the latest report, these updated pricing structures have influenced projections across multiple dairy product categories.

For 2025, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are expected to decline based on recent market trends, while cheese prices are forecasted to rise. Currently, cheese prices stand at $1.880 per pound, up from $1.865 last month. This increase is driven by tight inventories carried over from 2024, which are expected to remain constrained into the new year.

Meanwhile, both Class III and Class IV milk prices are projected to decline amid broader market pressures. Class III milk is currently forecasted at $19.10 per hundredweight (cwt.), down 60 cents from the previous month. Class IV prices follow a similar trend, dropping $1.10 to $19.70 per cwt.

As for overall milk pricing, the all-milk price estimate for 2024 has been revised upward to $22.61 per cwt., incorporating final reported data through December. However, the 2025 forecast sees a slight adjustment downward, with the all-milk price expected to average $22.60 per cwt.

Your Next Read: Beef-on-Dairy: A Critical Solution to the Shrinking U.S. Cattle Herd

Beef-on-Dairy: A Critical Solution to the Shrinking U.S. Cattle Herd

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 16:04:56 GMT

The U.S. beef cattle herd is the smallest it has been in 64 years, and there’s little indication that rebuilding will happen anytime soon. Persistent drought and strong cattle prices have discouraged beef producers from retaining heifers, further tightening supply. As a result, the beef industry has increasingly turned to dairy farmers to produce beef-on-dairy crossbreds to help meet growing demand.

USDA NASS says as of January 1 2025, there were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms.

(Lindsey Pound )

Beef-on-Dairy’s Growing Role in the Industry

During the 2024 MILK Business Conference, Dale Woerner of Texas Tech University highlighted the impact beef-on-dairy has had on the industry.

“Ultimately, these crossbred animals have improved the conventional straight Holstein steer so much, and they’ve offered more volume and a really high-quality product into the beef industry,” he said. “With low native cattle numbers, the industry has to have these cattle. Not only do they have to have them, but they have to have them grade prime or choice.”

Woerner believes that beef-on-dairy crossbreds have added immense value to the beef supply chain and should be seen as a long-term solution. “Beef-on-dairy crossbreds have added enough value to the beef supply chain that we should never change what we’re doing. We should continue creating these crossbred cattle for the future.”

A Reliable and Consistent Supply of Cattle

With native beef cow numbers dwindling in recent years, beef-on-dairy crossbreds have stepped in to fill a critical gap, offering both consistency and quality during a time of supply uncertainty. Despite inevitable market fluctuations, Woerner is confident these crossbred cattle are here to stay.

“While we can’t promise that we’ll always see $800-$900 for a beef-on-dairy calf as we do today, I don’t think we’ll ever return to the low value of purebred Holstein steers from the past,” Woerner added.

Feedlots have become especially reliant on these crossbreds. “Feedlots need these animals – they’re a top commodity,” Woerner noted. “Over the years, many feedlots have gained experience in feeding beef-on-dairy cattle, optimizing their efficiency and performance. From a feedlot perspective, these cattle are in higher demand than ever before.”

The Value of Traceability

Looking ahead, Woerner thinks it’ll take at least three to five years to rebuild the beef herd, depending on weather and market conditions. But even with that, beef-on-dairy crossbred calves are still going to be a valuable part of the industry. One big advantage he sees with these animals is the traceability they offer, which adds extra value and transparency throughout the supply chain.

“Even when native cattle numbers rebound, the traceability system in place with beef-on-dairy crossbreds will continue to offer a level of accountability that sets these animals apart in the marketplace,” he added. “I wouldn’t be surprised if feedlots and packers start offering a premium for that kind of information.”

Challenges Ahead

While the native beef herd has reached record lows and prices have skyrocketed in recent months, beef-on-dairy crossbred cattle have stepped in to help fill the gap. Woerner noted that these crossbreds have provided much-needed consistency and quality during a time of uncertainty. And although the beef herd is expected to gradually rebuild over the next few years, it’s clear that the beef industry will continue to rely on these crossbred animals to meet demand and keep the pipeline full.

Even though the beef herd is expected to rebuild in the coming years, analysts warn that it won’t happen overnight. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, pointed out that the industry hasn’t even started rebuilding the breeding herd yet. “The next takeaway is that we have not started rebuilding the breeding herd. As such, perhaps we have a little higher numbers over the next half year or so, but then things get tighter, and more significantly tighter once we actually do start holding back heifers,” Suderman explained.

A Long-Term Solution

With native cattle numbers still under pressure, beef-on-dairy crossbreds are providing the industry with a critical supply of cattle. Their value—through efficiency, consistency, and traceability—ensures they’ll remain an essential piece of the beef supply chain, even as the market continues to evolve.

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U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory Falls to the Lowest Level in 64 Years

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 21:09:20 GMT

Shrinking cattle supplies continues to be the story in the cattle market and part of the reason cattle prices continue to climb. USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, now at 86.7 million head. And when you look at just the number of beef cows, that inventory fell 1%, now sitting at 27.9 million head.

Other highlights in the January Cattle report include:

Of the 86.7 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased slightly to 9.35 million.
U.S. calf crop was estimated at 33.5 million head, down slightly from previous year.
USDA NASS says the number of cattle on feed were at 14.3 million head, down 1% from 2024

All 👀 were on the January #cattle report today. Here's a look at the #beef cattle inventory over the last 65 years 🥩 . 🇺🇸 Jan inventory was the lowest since 1961 👇👇. At @TerrainAg we have amazing protein economists on the team to help #FarmCredit customers, see their work… pic.twitter.com/weg8KrjcbW
— John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) January 31, 2025

“The big takeaway as we see it was the notable upward revision of last year’s numbers, and we expected that. The past year’s kills have simply been larger than implied by last year’s survey. I think most in the market anticipated that. Not sure if the Algo traders had,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Group.

“Everything looks pretty in line until you get to that beef replacement heifer number, and I feel like that’s kind of a little bit of a surprise as we’ve been talking about heifer retention,” Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, Sioux Center, Iowa told AgDay’s Michelle Rook. “We’re thinking it’s happening and the last cattle on feed report showed a few less heifers on feed but with a 101 % estimate coming in at 99% we’re still off of year ago levels and still not seeing that rebuild in the cow herd.”

Last year’s USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest cattle herd in 73 years . And with no strong signs of rebuilding underway, along with strong prices providing no incentive to retain heifers, agricultural economists expected U.S. cattle inventory to shrink even more since last year, which is exactly what USDA revealed on Friday.

“The next takeaway is that we have not started rebuilding the breeding herd. As such, perhaps we have a little higher numbers over the next half year or so, but then things get tighter, and more significantly tighter once we actually do start holding back heifers,” says Suderman.

Higher Highs?

Cattle prices continued to hit records this week. And with no signs of those record prices slowing down, it’s a question of how high these prices will actually go.

According to AgDay’s Michelle Rook, the cattle market continues to smash new records in both the futures market and in cash cattle trade. She reported a strong fed cash cattle market, combined with the border still being closed to Mexican feeder imports has also pushed both live and cattle futures to all-time highs.

Is there any sign of a slowdown in the market, or is a top close? Suderman says fundamentally, the signs show supplies are tight, but the demand piece is a concern.

“Unfortunately, those signs usually come after the top has traded, which is why so many feeders are so nervous,” he says. “Fundamentally, things will still get tighter. But it still comes to the consumer. Consumer confidence pulled back in January, which is a red flag. Headlines are filled with scary scenarios that a trade war over tariffs could bring, which tends to further reduce consumer confidence. That doesn’t bode well for the consumer paying up for the higher cuts of meat at these price levels.”

What Will It Take for Producers to Start to Rebuild?
What would change a producer’s minds and give them confidence to grow their herds again? That’s exactly what we asked in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is an anonymous survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country. While some said it will just take time, others pointed to the economics of strong cow-calf returns, weaker fed cattle prices and lower prices at the sale barn.

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Other economists said:

“Today’s high prices are certainly incentive, along with the expectation of moderate feed costs.”
“Government policies, global demand, price cycle”
“Better spring forage supplies could be the most important factor in growth. More quality labor could be critical, too.”
“Confidence that the general economy outlook is positive and that there are unlikely to be negative policy shocks. And, of course, there has to be adequate forage.”
“Improved weather pattern in the West, along with profitable margins.”

Milk Production Declines in December as Per-Cow Output Slips

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 17:16:14 GMT

Milk production in the 24 major states continued its downward trend in December, totaling 18.0 billion lbs., a 0.4% decline from the previous year. This marks a continuation of the slight contraction seen in November, where revised production figures showed a 0.3% year-over-year decrease.

Monthly Milk Production

(USDA)

Slight Contraction Continues
Despite these declines, the overall number of milk cows in the 24 major states increased by 17,000 head compared to December 2023 yet decreased by 8,000 head from November 2024.

Monthly Milk Cows

(USDA)

Per-Cow Output Drops
One contributing factor to the lower production was a decline in milk output per cow. In December, the average production per cow in the 24 major states was 2,020 lbs., 11 lbs. less than in December 2023.

Monthly Milk Per Cow

(USDA)

Herd Size Shifts
On a broader scale, U.S. milk production for the October-December quarter stood at 55.5 billion lbs., down 0.1% from the same period last year. The national dairy herd averaged 9.36 million head during this quarter, an increase of 29,000 head from the July-September quarter and 10,000 head more than a year ago. However, the incremental growth in cow numbers has not been enough to offset the decline in milk production per cow.

Regional Trends Diverge
Regional differences played a significant role in shaping the December milk production statistics. While some states, like Idaho and Texas, saw production increases due to rising cow numbers and improved milk output per cow, others, including California and Arizona, reported notable declines.

California, the nation’s largest milk-producing state, saw its December production drop by 6.8% compared to the previous year, a decline largely attributed to reductions in herd size and lower per-cow output. In contrast, Texas increased production by 7.5%, fueled by a growing dairy herd and strong per-cow yields.

The December report also reaffirmed a broader industry trend: the slow but steady contraction of milk production in some traditional dairy strongholds, while newer dairy regions continue to expand. States in the Midwest and Northeast, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, maintained relatively stable production levels, whereas the West and Southwest experienced more volatility.

Industry Outlook
Looking ahead, while demand for dairy products remains steady, cost pressures—particularly feed and labor expenses—continue to challenge profitability. Additionally, global economic conditions and export markets will play a key role in shaping the industry’s trajectory. With milk prices fluctuating and input costs remaining elevated, many producers are assessing strategies to enhance efficiency and productivity without significantly expanding herd sizes.

Take our 2025 State of the Dairy Industry Survey

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Dairy Report: Margin Pressure Continues to Mount for Dairy Producers

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 15:52:29 GMT

Dairy producers are starting the year off with margin pressure following the latest round of USDA reports. A rally in grain prices following a cut to corn yields helped push feed costs higher.

Milk prices were also under pressure. Class III February price futures fell to near $20.27 per cwt., down 65 cents, but did gain back some of those losses later in the week. Block cheese started last week at a two-month high at $1.94 but closed lower as some support melted in the wake of the WASDE report.

USDA is forecasting lower production in 2025 due to slower growth in output per cow.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Found in Germany

First time in nearly 40 years Germany is dealing with an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. It was confirmed in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin. The disease causes fever along with mouth blisters in animals including cattle, swine, sheep and goats. German officials say they are taking steps to contain the disease.

The illness doesn’t pose a danger to humans, but they can transmit it. Officials say affected animals have already been euthanized and the country has already set up an exclusion and monitoring zone. The last case of foot-and-mouth disease occurred back in Germany in 1988.

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On-Farm Income Is An Oxymoron This Year

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 23:23:55 GMT

One trend is showing that while farm income generally exceeded those of other U.S. households, the majority of farm households had farming losses and were getting the majority of their income from off farm sources, AgDay-TV reported on Monday.

Your Next Read on AgWeb: Biden Administration’s 45Z Announcement Leaves More Questions Than Answers

Milk Production Forecasts Cut For 2024 And 2025: Will Prices See Any Growth?

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 21:11:32 GMT

Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been scaled back, signaling a shift in expected output. According to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Milk Production report, lower milk cow inventories and reduced milk output per cow have led to a revised 2024 forecast. Similarly, the 2025 outlook reflects slower growth in milk production per cow, signaling potential challenges ahead for producers. The USDA’s upcoming Cattle report is expected to shed light on whether dairy heifer retention will contribute to rebuilding the milking herd.

Trade patterns are also shaping the dairy market. Fat-basis imports for 2024 have increased due to higher cheese and butter imports, while skim-solids imports remain steady. Looking to 2025, fat-basis imports are expected to rise further, driven by continued demand for cheese and butter, while skim-solids imports are anticipated to decline due to reduced casein and milk protein concentrate imports.

On the export side, U.S. butter and cheese are gaining traction in global markets thanks to competitive pricing, boosting fat-basis export forecasts for both 2024 and 2025. However, the picture is less optimistic for skim-solids exports, as nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey face stiff competition abroad, leading to lowered export expectations in this category.

Price forecasts reveal a mixed bag for dairy producers. For 2024, the all-milk price is adjusted down to $22.60 per cwt, reflecting current market pressures. However, 2025 offers a more promising outlook, with the all-milk price projected to rise to $23.05 per cwt. This increase is supported by higher expected prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey, driven by tighter milk supplies and solid demand. Both Class III and Class IV prices are forecasted to climb in 2025, bolstered by rising cheese, whey, butter, and NDM prices.

Your Next Read: Will We See $25 Milk in 2025?

USDA Provides Milk Production Estimates for the Next Ten Years

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 16:36:17 GMT

There is a significant dynamic taking place in the market with cheese prices at the lowest level they have been since April. The butter price has been in a sideways pattern since early October after the price fell from the high in late August. However, the nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices have moved in the opposite direction. The Grade A nonfat dry milk price moved to the highest level since November 22, 2022, while the dry whey price reached the highest level since April 22, 2022. The strength of the powder prices has done much to limit the decline of Class III and Class IV prices due to the weakness of butter and cheese prices. Milk production has not rebounded so far this fall as anticipated, but demand has also not rebounded as much as anticipated leaving the butter and cheese markets struggling. As prices declined, buyers were purchasing for contracted orders and expected demand. This has put them in a position of having sufficient supply on hand with buying taking place on an as-needed basis.

Milk production has not been impacted as much as had been anticipated earlier this year. Other than seasonal buying this summer, there had been concern over the tight heifer supply and how that would limit milk production growth. Older cows that were retained in the herds were not expected to have the potential to improve output. This would tighten the milk supply. However, the culling rate slowed but milk production per cow continued to improve resulting in production being higher than a year ago with August milk production 0.4% above a year ago and September milk production up 0.1% over September 2023 with 38,000 less cows. The spread of bird flu was anticipated to have a greater impact on milk production, and it did for those farms that were impacted by it. Overall, it has not had much impact so far. Once the market participants realized that supplies were sufficient for demand through the end of the year, prices came under pressure, falling rapidly.

What is the outlook for cow numbers, milk production and prices in the future? The USDA released their ten-year baseline projections showing growth in all categories. Cow numbers are projected to steadily increase with numbers estimated to reach 9.502 million head in 2034. Milk production is projected to increase from 225.8 billion pounds this year to reach 253.1 billion pounds in 2034. This would be an average growth of 2.73 billion pounds per year. This would be achieved by the increase of milk production per cow from 24,195 this year to 26,630 per cow by 2034.

The All-milk price is projected to average $25.58 per cwt in 2034. This would mean a record milk price average with record milk production. Individual dairy product prices were also projected with cheddar cheese showing the greatest price potential increasing from an average of $1.88 this year to $2.14 per pound in 2034. Dry whey was the other category that showed more potential. Over the ten-year period, the average price is projected to increase 6 cents to reach 54 cents per pound. Nonfat dry milk is projected to gain of 4 cents by 2034 averaging $1.27 per pound. The USDA did not have much hope for the butter price, they lowered the average price by 5 cents to average $2.87 per pound in 2034.

These price projections may not be as much as we would hope for the next ten years, but bear in mind that these are price projection and there are many things that can influence the market during this period and from year to year. Volatility has been increasing and this will not change as the markets are impacted not only by domestic supply and demand, but by the world markets and political events. The farm must be prepared to take advantage of this volatility as it unfolds and offers profitable prices to protect and build equity and move the farm forward.

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Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker with AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Robin’s office is located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. Robin may be reached at 877-256-3253 or through the website www.agdairy.com .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

September Milk Production Sees Modest Growth, Cow Numbers Hold Steady

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 21:18:08 GMT

Milk production in the 24 major dairy-producing states saw a slight rise in September, totaling 17.5 billion lbs., a 0.2% increase compared to September 2023. August’s revised production figures were also up, reaching 18.2 billion lbs.—an increase of 0.5% from the previous year. The August revision added 85 million lbs. to the original estimate, highlighting a slow but steady rise in output.

Key figures from the September report include:

Production per Cow: Dairy cows in the 24 major states produced an average of 1,966 pounds of milk in September, 8 pounds more than in September 2023.

Number of Milk Cows: The total number of milk cows in these states was 8.89 million head, down 20,000 from the previous year but unchanged from August 2024.

A closer look at individual states shows that Kansas, South Dakota, Texas, Idaho and New York saw year-over-year increases in milk production, while states like New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona experienced declines.

Arizona: Down 9,000 head. Down 17 million lbs., -4.6% lower.
Idaho: Up 7,000 head. Up 25 million lbs., 1.8% higher.
Kansas: Up 6,000 head. Up 10 million lbs., 3% higher.
Minnesota: Down 9,000 head. Down 17 million lbs., -2% lower.
New Mexico: Down 26,000 head. Down 47 million lbs., -9.1% lower.
New York: Cow numbers remained the same. Milk rose 16 million lbs., 1.2% higher.
South Dakota: Up 16,000 head. Up 30 million lbs., 7.9% higher.
Texas: Up 20,000 head. Up 65 million lbs., 4.9% higher.
Wisconsin: Down 4 million head. Down 14 million lbs., -0.5% lower.

Your Next Read: Weaker Milk Supply Drives Class III Milk Price to 27-Month High

Latest All-Milk Price Forecast Shows Slight Decline for Year-End

Mon, 14 Oct 2024 20:05:43 GMT

In its October World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA lowered its milk production forecast for 2024 based on a slight decrease in growth for milk production per cow – dropping 100 million lbs. to 225.8 billion lbs. compared to last month’s report. The same forecast held true for 2025, with milk production reduced slightly from 227.9 billion lbs. to 227.7 billion lbs.

Throughout the rest of 2024, dairy imports are expected to rise mainly due to increased cheese and butter imports. The trend continues into 2025 with similar expectations. While skim-solids imports remain steady for 2024, they are anticipated to grow in 2025 due to more cheese and other dairy products being brought in.

On the export side, 2024 fat-based exports are stable, but 2025 could see a rise in butter exports. Skim-solids exports for 2024 are up, thanks to more nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but a competitive market might affect 2025’s performance.

Lower butter and cheese prices have led to reduced price forecasts for 2024 and 2025. On the other hand, NDM and whey prices are expected to rise due to strong demand. For Class III milk, the forecasts have been lowered for both years because the drop in cheese prices outweighs the increase in whey prices. Class IV prices are also down due to lower butter prices, despite higher NDM prices. The all-milk price is forecasted at $22.80 per cwt for 2024 and $22.75 per cwt for 2025.

Corn and Soybean Prices Tank After USDA Report Makes Surprising Revisions to Yield

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:41:03 GMT

USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.

The big news in the report was the revisions to yield. USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre.

USDA also cut harvested acreage, but with the big increase in production, USDA pegs the 2023 corn production figure of 15.34 billion bushels.

The increases to yield and production were larger than what the trade expected, which caused corn prices to sink.

“We got a lot of criticism for our estimate all summer long being too high. And we ended up too low,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group. “This crop, I’m just really impressed with, not just the genetics of it, but farmers with their technology, the seed placement, just the management of it. They are getting better and better at withstanding the stresses and it just makes you wonder how good this crop might have been had we not had the stresses we had.”

(Farm Journal)

USDA also increased demand, which helped offset a portion of the increased yield. USDA increased feed use by 25 million bushels. The agency also increased ethanol use by 50 million bushels.

“Those revisions were pretty much in line with what the trade expected,” says Jim McCormmick of AgMarket.net. “And I guess it’s a good thing because without those upward revisions of demand, this carryout would have really exploded to the upside. And I think the market could’ve had an even worse negative reaction than it’s currently having.”

Surprise in Soybeans

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November. Soybean production is now pegged at 4.16 billion bushels.

Suderman says these yield increases are something farmers should note, especially with the current debate on how much of an impact weather will have on Brazil’s crop that’s currently in the ground.

“The same genetics we plant here we plant in South America as well, essentially, so we need to look at South America in that same light,” Suderman says. “This crop really did well, especially in eastern Midwest. We saw some really good yields from corn and soybeans this year. And some of that may have been some of the benefits from the smoke coming from the Canadian fires. That’s one of the theories now that was sulfur and some other positive effects were coming from that smoke.”

Cuts to Brazil

After drought impacted Brazil’s crop for much of the growing season, USDA cut its soybean forecast in Brazil to 157 million metric tons. That’s down from the 161 million metric tons forecast in the last report. USDA also trimmed its corn estimate for Brazil by 2 million metric tons.

“Traders were looking for bigger cuts,” McCormick says. “The rhetoric I think was even for bigger cuts and what the average straight guess was. So yeah, it was definitely a little bit disappointing. But time will tell where we’re at. Some of the modeling I’ve seen for the weather is that we are going to turn a little bit warmer and drier here in the middle part of January, and with this latest crop that has been planted, that could cause some problems to that crop and still shrink it. And of course, we still haven’t started planting safrinha corn crops. So the size of that crop is yet to be determined.”

Quarterly Grain Stocks

(Farm Journal)

USDA’s revisions to the 2023 crop production numbers pushed the quarterly grain stock estimates higher and above trade expectations.

Corn stocks are forecast up 13% to 12.2 billion bushels. Soybeans were adjusted down 1% from December to 3 billion bushels.

Wheat supplies on December 1 were forecast to be up 8% from a year ago at 1.41 billion bushels.