Weather - General

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:34 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 21:41:51 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:42 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:41:51 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Winter-Proof Your Workforce: Keeping Employees Warm on the Job

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 17:11:57 GMT

What started as a mild winter is bound to become brutal as plunging, dangerous temperatures sweep across much of the U.S. While most of the country will stay bundled up inside, farmers and their employees don’t have the luxury of skipping work for a snow day.

To create a safe and comfortable work environment for your farm employees, it’s important to address the specific challenges posed by cold weather on the farm. As temperatures begin to drop, consider implementing the following tips to keep your crew safe, warm and productive:

Make Sure They Have Adequate Clothing

Dressing poorly shouldn’t be considered “cool,” especially when it comes to harsh winter weather conditions on the farm. However, not all employees know how to appropriately dress for the bitter weather. Consider providing them with the following checklist and keeping a few extra items in a bin for employees to use in case they forget.

Some examples of warm winter clothing include:

Lined jackets
Lined overalls
Stocking caps / hats and lined gloves
Long thermal underwear
Lined boots – waterproof and anti-slip
Wicking wool socks
Scarf

Provide Warm Break Areas

Working out in the cold can take a toll on the body. That’s why it’s necessary to take frequent breaks to rest and warm up. To keep employees going, be sure to create designated warm break areas for your employees to recuperate.

Offer snacks that are not only tasty but also provide energy. Nutritious options like trail mix, energy bars, and fruits can help replenish energy levels. You can also supply a selection of hot beverages like coffee, tea or hot chocolate. If employees are coming in from wet or snowy conditions, consider having a designated area with a drying rack for wet outerwear, gloves, and boots.

Adjust Schedules

Adjusting schedules in the winter is a practical strategy to address the challenges and potential hazards associated with cold weather. Along with allowing more frequent breaks to prevent prolonged exposure to the cold, consider scheduling more grueling outdoor tasks during the warmer parts of the day.

Keep Up Communication

Safety concerns rise as cold weather intensifies. This rings true for not only our employees, but livestock as well. Keep the lines of communication open with employees to address concerns and gather feedback on their comfort and to learn if areas of the farm need immediate attention.

Work in Pairs

While farmers are already hard-pressed to find labor, working in pairs allows employees to get the job done quickly and safely. Using the buddy system ensures that every employee is accounted for and that the work gets done in a timely fashion. This system is especially important for employees working in remote areas.

Have an Emergency Kit

Winter weather can be unpredictable. Having an emergency kit in a well-known location can be a lifesaver when it comes to coping with unexpected challenges. Keep your kit filled with the essentials, such as:

Medical supplies
Extra clothing
Blankets
Handwarmers
Flashlights
Non-perishable snacks

Know the Signs of Cold Stress

Hypothermia and frostbite are the two most common forms of cold stress and can be fatal if left untreated. To help minimize the risk of these conditions going unnoticed, make sure to review and be on the lookout for the following symptoms.

Signs of Hypothermia:

Fast and shallow breathing / trouble breathing.
Going from shivering to not shivering.
Hunger, fatigue and confusion.
Lack of coordination.
Increased heart rate.
Weak pulse.
Slurred speech / mumbling.
Dizziness and nausea.

Signs of Frostbite:

Cold skin, prickling feeling and numbness.
Red, white, bluish-white or grayish-yellow skin.
Hard or waxy-looking skin.
Clumsiness due to joint and muscle stiffness.
Blistering after rewarming when severe (expect exposed skin to peel off).
If the skin turns black seek medical attention..

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 13:04:57 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:36:13 GMT

After a year that challenged nearly every long-range forecast, weather uncertainty remains a dominant theme heading into 2026. Shifting climate signals with La Niña looking to make a quick exit, evolving ocean temperatures and global production concerns are once again forcing producers and markets to stay flexible.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow and atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the lessons of 2025 serve as a reminder even confident outlooks can unravel quickly, and that adaptability is critical as weather patterns reset. But overall, he thinks 2026 could bring favorable weather, especially for crop production.

2025: A Year Forecasts Missed

Coming into 2025, a growing body of forecasts pointed toward drought risk across the western and central Corn Belt. Those concerns were based on long-term dryness signals that had appeared consistently for nearly a decade. But as spring unfolded, the atmosphere took a sharp turn.

“2025 didn’t shape up like any forecast thought it would,” Snodgrass says. “Instead of the widespread drought everyone was worried about, we ended up with flooding, excess moisture and major disease pressure.”

Heavy rains in April and May triggered widespread flooding across the Mid-South, Delta and southern Plains, replenishing soil moisture and wiping out early drought fears. While summer brought hot overnight temperatures, frequent storms in June, July and early August kept crops supplied with moisture — but created ideal conditions for disease.

“If you were in the Corn Belt, you were fighting southern rust and tar spot,” Snodgrass says. “If you hit twice with fungicide, yields were there. If not, disease pressure took a real toll.”

Warm overnight temperatures combined with frequent rainfall created ideal conditions for crop disease across much of the Corn Belt. Southern rust and tar spot became widespread issues, reinforcing how excess moisture can be just as damaging as dryness when timing and intensity aren’t favorable.

Despite those challenges, U.S. production came in strong overall, shifting attention to the global balance sheet and, in particular, South America.

South America Avoids Major Stress... For Now

With the U.S. crop largely established, concerns turned south as traders and analysts monitored planting progress and moisture conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Early delays raised questions, but recent rainfall across key growing regions helped stabilize crop conditions.

He says vegetation health indicators, including NDVI data, show little evidence of widespread stress heading into early 2026. While La Niña is typically associated with dryness risk in parts of South America, its influence so far has been muted — and that has kept weather-driven market anxiety in check.

The bigger question now isn’t how La Niña has behaved so far, but how long it will remain in place.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a report earlier this month that says La Niña is present and is “favored to continue for the next month or two.”

CPC says it’s important to note:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI (the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, CPC says it’s those thresholds that must be exceeded for a period of at least five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.

The Growing Likelihood of El Niño in 2026

The move to possible ENSO neutral conditions.

(CPC )

Snodgrass says as La Niña is in place to start 2026, it’s a pattern that typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the South. However, he adds the event may not last.

“I was wrong earlier when I thought 2026 might mirror 2025,” he admits. “That dialogue is gone.”

Most major forecasting centers, particularly European models, suggest La Niña could exit quickly in January or February. By spring, there’s roughly a 50% chance El Niño conditions could emerge — a major departure from last year’s pattern.

“That fast exit changes everything,” Snodgrass says.

CPC agrees. In a statement released Thursday, January 8 , CPC says there are now growing chances of an El Niño this year.

“La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026. For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” says the CPC. “In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026.

(CPC )

What a Faster Transition Could Mean for Spring

If La Niña fades quickly, spring could offer more favorable planting opportunities across key production regions. Drier periods and fewer prolonged storm systems would be favorable for spring planting.

“Two of the analogs I’m watching closely are 2009 and 2018,” Snodgrass says. “Those were pretty good crop years across much of the Midwest.”

Still, Snodgrass cautions confidence will increase only as March and April weather patterns become clearer. Until then, flexibility remains essential. He says at this stage, however, the pattern looks supportive rather than threatening.

“Right now, I like what I see,” Snodgrass says.

The Most Important Signals to Watch in 2026

While ocean temperatures remain important, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, Snodgrass says one indicator stands above the rest as spring approaches.

“Watch where the severe weather sets up,” he says.

If spring storms focus across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, including the Delta and surrounding states, then Snodgrass explains that typically reduces the risk of summer drought. But if severe weather stays concentrated farther west, like in western Kansas, Colorado or western Nebraska, that’s when concerns begin to rise.

“If the storm chasers are far away from the Mississippi River, my ears perk up,” Snodgrass says. “If they’re chasing storms all through that valley, I feel much better about moisture and drought risk.”

Global Weather Still Shapes the Market

Even with improving signals at home, global production remains a major market driver. As U.S. farmers prepare for planting, attention will also remain on South America’s safrinha corn crop.

“Does that crop go in on time? Does it have moisture stress late?” he asks. “Those questions still matter, and they can tug on markets while we’re focused on planting here.”

Late-season moisture stress or planting delays there could tighten global supplies and inject volatility into prices. That makes spring a uniquely complex period, one where weather developments across multiple continents can influence market direction simultaneously.

What Farmers Need to Keep in Mind

After a year defined by surprises, 2026 is shaping up with a different set of risks — and opportunities. A faster La Niña exit, improving spring conditions and historically favorable analogs provide cautious optimism, but weather remains an ever-moving target.

“These are early signals, not guarantees,” he says. “But knowing what to watch, and when, makes all the difference.”

For producers and markets alike, the key will be watching the right signals at the right time.

La Niña Versus El Niño: Why the Difference Matters

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and each carries distinct implications for U.S. and global agriculture.

La Niña Typically Brings:

Cooler, wetter conditions across the northern U.S.
Warmer, drier weather across the southern Plains and Southeast
Increased drought risk in the Delta and parts of South America
Greater risk of spring temperature extremes and uneven rainfall

El Niño Typically Brings:

Wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
Milder winter temperatures in much of the Midwest
Reduced drought risk in key U.S. production regions
Higher rainfall potential in South America during critical growth stages

A fast shift from La Niña to El Niño can dramatically alter planting windows, early-season moisture availability and disease risk. For markets, these transitions often drive volatility as traders reassess yield potential and global supply outlooks.

Understanding when the transition occurs can be just as important as which phase dominates.

Meteorologists Say to Prepare For An Active December

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 19:11:28 GMT

For those in the Midwest, a low pressure system arrived Tuesday night bringing strong winds — a wide area of wind advisories — and for some winter precipitation.

“Wisconsin is having an amazing snow event today,” says Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist for Nutrien, in his latest YouTube update. “There’s a blizzard warning in northern Wisconsin.”

Are there more rounds of snow coming and will it be widespread?
While Snodgrass says for most, Thanksgiving Day itself will be quiet-weather-wise, the day after brings increased interest for travel-effecting weather, especially for those east of the Rocky Mountains.

“There will be 10°F to 20°F temp drops through the northern Plains to the Gulf coast,” Snodgrass says. “Snow is more probably because of the cold temperatures — the transition line between rain and snow on Saturday night — we don’t know. It’s going to be a fine line.”

He points to parts of Missouri, Illinois, most of Iowa, Minnesota and all of Wisconsin and Michigan to see some snow. With Wisconsin and Michigan seeing models indicating snow totals from 1’ to 2’. There will be better precipitation chances for the southeast in the form of rain.

The precipitation event forecast comes with greater confidence heading into the holiday weekend.

“I was happy to see the models align this morning,” Snodgrass says.

Eric Snodgrass highlights the latest ECMWF Ensemble forecast for getting at least 3" and 6" of snow through Thanksgiving weekend.

(AgWx.com)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes some will see extreme cold for the first time this winter.

“Look for our first outbreak of sub-zero temperatures of the 25/26 winter season,” Rippey says. “And by Monday morning, December 1, those sub-zero temperatures will encompass large parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.”

And then early next week, there’s another system moving from the Mississippi delta through the southeast to bring additional rainfall totals.

Some areas that will remain dry through early December include the Canadian prairies, California and the southwest.

The First of Many
“It’s the post-Thanksgiving period that I’m most concerned about. We will be looking at a series of storms moving out of the northwest and eventually reaching the nation’s midsection,” Rippey says. “If you’re going to wait a little bit for heading home after the holiday, do look for some potential for very disruptive weather late Sunday into Monday, eventually reaching airports like Denver and spreading toward Chicago as we head into the first day of December.”

Rippey adds as we head into the winter months it’s reasonable to expect it to be colder and much more stormy across a vast swath of the country.

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 16:25:32 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:12 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:17:28 GMT

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then the video Iowa farmer Dan Striegel shot last week must be worth thousands more. In the video, Striegel is shown harvesting a field of emerald-green corn enveloped in a cloud of orangish-red southern rust.

“We were just getting that field opened up, and I looked over and saw that dust boiling up out of the chopper, so I shot the video,” Striegel says.

Southern Rust? Never heard of her.
What Cheer, Iowa. USA. #pftour25 #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/tiIsUc2CHl
— Dan Striegel (@djsinseia) August 21, 2025

To date, Striegel’s video has garnered more than 48,000 views on X, formerly Twitter.

“We’re in southeast Iowa, Keokuk County, and I think the southern rust is as bad here as it is anywhere,” Striegel adds. “Every field you walk in, if you’re wearing a white T-shirt, you’ll come out of there red.”

A Red Path Of Disease Mars The Midwest

Expect to see more red T-shirt-clad farmers walking out of cornfields across the upper Midwest, based on what the Crop Protection Network (CPN) southern rust map is showing.

The CPN continually updates its online, interactive map showing the counties by state where southern rust infections are confirmed. Now, in late August, the counties look like red steppingstones. They form a checkered path from southwest Michigan through northern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Wisconsin, across all of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of the way across Nebraska. Eastern South Dakota is also lit up with a string of red counties, as are parts of southern to central Minnesota.

The amount of southern rust present in the upper Midwest is worrisome to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. In severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the CPN.

“At most, one in 10 growers in northern Iowa and Minnesota have seen the kind of southern rust some of them are seeing this year,” says Ferrie, who was working last week with corn growers in both states.

“It was a problem in probably eight out of every 10 fields I was in, and they’d all been sprayed at least once,” he says. “Minnesota has a corn crop that’ll knock your socks off – yield potential of 250, 270. I encouraged every grower to spray their field a second time except for two fields. One had been knocked down by hail, and the other had a hybrid that was clean.”

I spoke with a good friend of mine from Iowa yesterday that is an agronomist and farmer. He said the southern rust in corn across Iowa and much of the Midwest will take 9 to 12 bushel/acre off corn yields on average from what his team and himself are seeing. pic.twitter.com/Ad1VJ9oQBg
— Captain Cornelius1 (@ISU145) August 26, 2025

Hybrids Have Little To No Resistance To Southern Rust

A combination of early-season moisture, heat and wind formed the perfect storm for southern rust this season, allowing the disease-causing fungal spores (Puccinia polysora) to move from southern climes up to the Midwest, according to Kurt Maertens, BASF technical service representative for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.

“We’ve seen it all – southern rust, tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot. Our corn has been inundated with all these fungal diseases, and we started seeing them early,” says Maertens.

If there’s a silver lining to southern rust, it’s that it does not overwinter in corn residue like tar spot does. But like tar spot, southern rust takes advantage of hybrids that have no built-in resistance. For many growers, that was an Achilles heel this season.

“When you’re dealing with a 117-day hybrid like they grow in southern Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, you don’t grow corn that doesn’t have good southern rust resistance, because they deal with it every year,” Ferrie notes. “When you move to Minnesota, and you’re planting 102- to 95-day corn, you’re probably not going to find hybrids with southern rust resistance.”

Striegel says that was true for his neighbor’s cornfield, which he custom chopped for silage. “That field had two hybrids in it, one was worse than the other, and the field had been sprayed with a fungicide,” he says.

He adds that he also sprayed his own cornfields with fungicide, but they are still inundated with southern rust.

“We’ve had southern rust before, and it’s not usually something we have to worry about, but this is really bad,” Striegel says. “I’m standing on my deck looking at the cornfield next to my house, and you know, all of the leaves from the ears down in that field are covered with it.”

Southern rust is real in eastern Nebraska. Fungicide 3 weeks ago, 2nd app today with some potassium acetate pic.twitter.com/WZubU6IBwz
— Trent Mastny (@TrentMastny) August 21, 2025

How Late Is A Fungicide Application Still Worthwhile?

Ferrie says the fields he scouted last week were at late R3 to early R4 and had already been sprayed with fungicide at least once, but the disease was rebuilding.

“Any field where farmers had sprayed two weeks previously, the southern rust and northern corn leaf blight, to a lesser degree, were coming back, especially the southern rust. It was resporating,” he says.

The intense disease pressure from southern rust, tar spot and others have kept fungicide use at high levels this season, despite poor commodity prices.

“Because of that [amount of disease pressure], we have seen increased demand for our fungicides this year,” says Maertens, who encouraged customers to get applications made at the beginning of tassel.

Maertens says he has fielded a lot of questions this summer from farmers, asking how late they could go with a fungicide application and still benefit.

“Our recommendation is to get in front of disease,” he says. “Generally, we stop applications before we get to dent (R5). That’s not to say a later application can’t have some benefit, but our best results have been before infection was able to take place.”

Southern rust is a yield enemy farmers routinely face in the Southeast, reports corn yield champion Randy Dowdy, Valdosta, Ga. He participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week and said on U.S. Farm Report he believes many Midwest farmers still have time to address disease.

“We need to implore the fungicides, the technologies out there and get after it and protect this crop, especially that crop that still has not reached dent,” he says.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer likes to see farmers complete their fungicide applications on the front side of dough (early R4). “Once we get to early dent, I think it’s a little more challenging to get the payback consistently, though we’ve applied at early dent (R5), and seen a nice response,” says Bauer, who is based in south-central Michigan.

Under the tough disease pressure farmers are facing this year, Bauer is telling growers to scout fields and evaluate what growth stage their crop is in before they walk away or pull the fungicide trigger one last time.

She adds that farmers need to check the label to make sure the product used is able to address southern rust effectively. She describes these as “Cadillac” products containing the newest chemistry.

“When it comes to some of these diseases, especially southern rust and tar spot, I do believe a little bit of a Hail Mary pass can be effective,” she says. “Will it be as effective as an application you could have made on a more timely basis? Well, no, you could have made more money doing it timely, but you’re still protecting bushels and gaining ROI at the end.”

Ferrie adds that farmers might want to do the late-season fungicide application to keep their corn crop standing until they can put their harvest plan in place.

“Be doing the push test to check stalk quality,” he advises.

Southern Rust/Silage Alert!!

Southern Rust has been aggressively advancing in many fields, especially those without a fungicide treatment. In some situations the plants are shutting down prematurely and plant material is senescing rapidly.

While we typically want to get down… pic.twitter.com/aK3hGgZE19
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) August 26, 2025

Striegel says some of the farmers around him are heading to fields to harvest their silage corn sooner than later, because of standability concerns. “Some of this corn got planted early, and we had a lot of heat. The crop matured quickly, and the diseases are kind of shutting it down. It’s just dying out, and guys are going to go get it,” he explains.

That’s the strategy Ferrie encourages farmers to use in regular production corn, too.

“Harvest the fields most at risk first. But if a field of corn goes down, go combine the fields where the corn is still standing and come back to that one later,” he recommends.

The reasoning is you don’t want to risk more corn going down while you’re harvesting the field of corn that already has.

“While I was driving through Iowa last week, I kept thinking that if I built corn reels to pick up down corn I’d bulk up my inventory, because I know where they’re going to get used,” Ferrie says, only half joking. “Yes, harvesting corn at 25% moisture is expensive, but down corn will kick your butt.”

Your next read: Revenge Applications: Why They Don’t Work, Cost You Money and Bushels, and Are Frankly Illegal

Yes, Corn Sweat is Real, But Here's Why the Humidity is So Thick This Year

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 17:13:04 GMT

In a year when most meteorologists were watching signs of drought — especially across the western half of the country — the middle of the U.S. has been inundated with moisture. It’s not just been hot, but unusually humid — even for this time of year.

Several Midwestern states are reporting a July that ranks as one of the top 10 wettest on record. Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says you can look to the Gulf to understand what’s been pumping all this moisture into much of the Corn Belt this year.

“We’ve had nonstop access to Gulf moisture. So, there’s just been nothing turning that off. As a result, we’d been able to just generate huge storms on plenty of moisture,” he says.

What Exactly is Corn Sweat?
The other factor that’s pumping moisture into the atmosphere is something called “corn sweat” — the process where corn plants release water vapor into the atmosphere. As the corn plant absorbs water from the soil and releases it through the pores in its leaves, the plant can cool down and transport nutrients.

“Corn sweat shows up a lot in some of the news media,” Snodgrass says. “We just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep. But the reality is we expect to see more ridge-riding storms.”

Snodgrass says last week’s rains that caused flash flooding across Iowa, Illinois and Missouri are proof of what the ridge-riding storms can do this time of year.

“We continue to see storms running the periphery of a ridge that’s going to probably live farther into the Southern Plains of the United States. But until you shut off the Gulf, we’re going have moisture coming through the country,” Snodgrass adds.

That “corn sweat” isn’t just aiding the recent ridge-riding storms. According meteorologist Ryan Maue, it’s also fueling some of the recent humidity.

At 7 pm ET, the corn fields 🌽were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature = heat index > 115°F 🔥

Dewpoints in the lower-80s + temperatures in 90s = insane "feels like" readings 📈 pic.twitter.com/JP89U5qXzt
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 28, 2025

Maue said as of 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, the corn fields were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature, which means it felt like 115°F outside.

Much of that is because of the dew point, which according to Maue, reached in the low ‘80s. Dew points of 80°F or higher locally aren’t unusual, but they aren’t necessarily common either. It’s that high dew point creating such heavy humidity, and it’s no coincidence those dew point levels were highest around where there’s a lot of corn.

And we just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien

With 95 million acres of corn planted in the ground this year, along with all the recent rains, it explains why the dew points and humidity has been so high.

The good news is the Midwest is currently in peak “corn sweat” time, which means the dew point should improve soon.

However, when it comes to moisture, Snodgrass thinks this wet weather pattern could continue over the next couple of weeks.

“If you ask me, the smartest forecast going longer term is probably persistence. In other words, what have we just seen? That will keep going until there’s some big overwhelming push to shove the atmosphere in a different direction,” he says.

Things should dry out for fall harvest. To understand the possible change in the weather pattern, watch Snodgrass’ full forecast from U.S. Farm Report.

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:48:44 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:35:14 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:02:27 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:11 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

The Omega Block Has Taken Over, And It Could Have a Major Impact on Drought and Planting Progress

Tue, 06 May 2025 21:14:38 GMT

What was a rapid planting progress across the Midwest became stalled by a wetter weather pattern to finish April. But now that we’re into May, an Omega Block is causing that pattern to shift, and that could bring good news for the drought-stricken Plains. It could also propel planting progress.

Michael Clark, CEO and co-founder of BAM Weather, says the rainfall totals over the past week have been unprecedented.

“If you look at areas like the South Central Plains, we have had rainfall totals that have exceeded really a foot or more of rain,” Clark says. “Places like Oklahoma, north-central Texas, that’s a 13" rainfall observation the last seven days. So the South Central Plains has been inundated with rain.”

Rainfall the past seven days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weater )

There were other areas that saw a sudden onset of moisture, which includes central Iowa, the Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

“We’ve lacked in the way of rain in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,” Clark says. “That’s going to matter a little bit going forward.”

Brace Yourself for the Omega Block

Areas of the Midwest will see warmer and drier weather this week, while parts of the drought-stricken Plains are starting to see some much needed rains, and the Omega Block is to thank for that.

“The Omega block, essentially, what it does is it brings in an area of high pressure over the central part of the country. And in the seven day rainfall map here, that we have, that shows the forecast. It kind of shuts moisture off in the central U.S., but it adds to it in the West and into the East and even to the South,” Clark says.

The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

“You can kind of see that U shape forecast there,” he adds. “This is a seven day rainfall forecast map, so for a lot of folks in the heart of the Grain Belt, there is going to be really a shutoff in moisture as we head into May, but there will be an excess of moisture across the Deep South continuing.”

Clark says it could be too much of a good thing for some, as he’s concerned about too much rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

“But the Omega block is good news for folks that need to get into the field and get some work done,” he adds.

A Big Warm-Up in May

April turned out to be a cooler than average month for temperatures. In fact, many farmers in the Midwest will tell you there’s one thing their crop needs right now, and that’s more sun.

Clark says the forecast is turning warmer and there is not as much rain predicted over the middle of the country.

“The forecast right now for the May temperature outlook is for, I think temperatures to start to warm up relatively pretty quickly for the month of May,” Clark says. “Most of the U.S. growing regions are going to be at or much above normal temperatures and probably a pretty rapid onset to summer. So there is going to be a rapid uptick in the planting pace here over the next couple of weeks, no doubt about that.”

May temperature outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather)

As for the precipitation, Clark says it’s leaning toward favorable for planting progress, as well, but he is concerned about the dryness starting to creep in.

“It will be good for planting. I’m concerned that late May into June, we may be running into some deficits and needing some rainfall,” he says. “So the outlook right now is as we get further into May and into June I’m concern about a potential shutoff and moisture and a little bit more heat to contend with.”

May moisture outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

Concerns About Dryness

Clark says when you look at how the May forecast is shaping up, he compares it more to years like 2001, 2006, 2012, and even 2021.

“Now, whenever I drop 2012, people’s ears always perk up and they get a little nervous, rightfully so,” he says. “I’m not saying a year like 2012 would happen, but I am concerned overall that years like that, they present issues with lack of moisture and excessive heat. I think this growing season is something that will be presented with its fair share of challenges in the weather department.”

Another Week of Major Planting Progress Wraps Up April

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:52:25 GMT

At this point in April, the majority of the farmers have buckled in for spring planting. And with another week of favorable conditions in the tractor’s rearview mirror, USDA has released the latest update on planting progress.

As of April 27, the report calculates 24% of corn and 18% of soybeans are in the ground. That’s up from 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans at this time last week.

The most progress since the last report goes to:
Corn

North Carolina (18% gain)
Minnesota (17% gain)
Iowa, Tennessee and South Dakota (16% gain)

Soybeans

Mississippi (19% gain)
Iowa and Louisiana (14% gain)
Arkansas (13% gain)

Progress up to this point is right on track with last year — with corn 1% behind and soybeans 1% ahead of the 2024 numbers.

Good Conditions To Go Around
With warm, sunny weather and rain where it’s needed, farmers are starting to feel cautiously optimistic for what’s ahead this growing season.

Started beans today. I thought the conditions were great before the rain the other day, even better now. After the last 2 wet miserable planting seasons I'll take it. Hopefully I don't jink myself #plant25 #notill pic.twitter.com/B3azISX2PF
— Bryan Biegler (@BryanBiegs) April 26, 2025

This oughta ease some drought concerns for a while around here. Already double what the forecast was pic.twitter.com/ENOizKjJGu
— Jacob Birklid (@NDSodbuster) April 28, 2025

In fact, conditions have been so good, some growers (like this Minnesota farmer) are way ahead of schedule.

And just like that, 2025 corn is planted. I can only remember being done with corn in April once before. #plant25 @MSP_Traffic pic.twitter.com/kBzZVPpxEz
— Shawn Anderson (@AndersonSM24680) April 27, 2025

They might even be wondering, “What’s the catch?”

It will either be a bin buster or a drought. It will be one or the other, I have not seen ground work up this nice in several years pic.twitter.com/klaAIP5GHx
— Greg Zimpleman (@gregzimpleman) April 27, 2025

Maybe it’s the ongoing windy conditions .

Planting soybeans into a great stand of rye. You can see the dirt blowing in the distance.

38mph wind gusts at the moment pic.twitter.com/JqipfrVtFk
— Ben Longlet 🇺🇸🌽🌱 (@blonglet) April 26, 2025

Or the forecast for the week ahead.

Let’s get crackin’! But actually let’s wait until after all this predicted hail tomorrow night…. pic.twitter.com/Zky90AX0x8
— Nicole Stecklein (@NicoleStecklein) April 27, 2025

🚨Here's our updated thinking for severe weather threats on Tuesday. Greatest timeframe of concern is from 1PM - 9PM ET. All hazards on the table. pic.twitter.com/WjSUuScifW
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 27, 2025

Whether you’ll be making progress this week, or on a severe weather delay, take a lesson from this farmer-in-training. Grab a snack, pet your dog and catch your breath.

Tractor naps were the best pic.twitter.com/bzP1IF0798
— C Bar J (@CbarJRanch) April 27, 2025

Your Next Read: Want to Boost Soybean Yields But Not Costs? Sunlight Can Help

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:30 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

Your Next Read:
No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Planted Acres Soar As Mother Nature Plays Nice (For A Few Days)

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 21:36:02 GMT

Last week’s warm temperatures and handful of rain-free days were a perfect recipe for spring planting — and farmers took full advantage of the opportunity.

Great week of farming. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/KKneurz4Ay
— Travis L (@fishliveinwater) April 19, 2025

At this time last week, USDA reported 4% of corn and 2% of soybean acres had been planted. As of April 20, those numbers have jumped to 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans.

The states with the biggest gains in corn this past week include:

Missouri (24% gain)
North Carolina (23% gain)
Iowa and Kansas (16% gains)

For soybeans, the top states are:

Louisiana (34% gain)
Mississippi (20% gain)
Arkansas (18% gain)

This year’s progress is just ahead of 2024 — up 1% in corn and soybeans alike.

Making Progress While You Can
Not wanting to miss out on Mother Nature cooperating for a few days, some farmers are sharing this is the earliest they’ve planted.

Joined the party. Earliest I’ve ever planted. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/x5yCzGurUf
— Roger Warner (@JDFarmboy) April 18, 2025

This agronomist found corn that’s already emerging in Illinois. USDA reports 2% of the overall corn crop has emerged — mostly in Texas and North Carolina.

We have corn emergence near Stonington, IL. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/oRKQX1AOgR
— Stephanie Porter (@skporter) April 21, 2025

Rain Where It’s Needed?
While a dry spell during planting season is usually good news, there are still many parts of the country in desperate need of a good rain.

It’s dry in Nebraska, @RichVelde! #plant25 pic.twitter.com/kdglMjbkoM
— 🌽 John and my sidekick, Quila 🌾 (@CornDogQuila) April 18, 2025

In fact, as of April 15, USDA reports 30% of corn production and 23% of soybean production occurs in areas currently experiencing some degree of drought.

(USDA)

Though it won’t be enough to reverse a drought, planting did come to a halt over the weekend for some of those states in need of moisture. Farmers’ freshly planted crop received a solid soak as they got a quick break to enjoy time with family.

We got the crust softening rain plus some the corn needed. pic.twitter.com/o2hWbmP2p6
— Zach Townsend (@TandTAg) April 20, 2025

Don’t forget: Legend has it that rain on Easter means rain for another seven Sundays. Plan accordingly.

Rain for the next 7 Sundays??? pic.twitter.com/dYmHLfoLkj
— SharkFarmer (@sf28430) April 20, 2025

Your Next Read: No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

No, You Aren't Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 16:44:59 GMT

If you are tired of battling the wind this spring, you’re not alone. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports the windiest start to spring on record, and with wind gusts continuing to grip much of the country, it’s causing headaches for farmers trying to spray herbicide this spring.

“This is the windiest March into early April we’ve had in 50 years,” says Eric Snodgrass, who is Nutrien Ag Solutions’ Principal Atmospheric Scientist. “We’ve had such incredible strong winds, not just here in the Midwest, but also in the Southern Plains. We’ve seen some especially large dust storms at times coming out of Mexico, New Mexico and Texas.”

Snodgrass says it’s safe to say most Americans aren’t enjoying the wind, and that goes for farmers who are forced to change spraying plans due to the wind.

“We’ve had to stop for a couple of days, but it lays down just certain parts of the day and sometimes that’s in the middle of the night, and we’ll take off and spray in the middle of night,” says Bryant Hunter, who farms in Ogden, Iowa.

Just last week, winds were topping 30 mph, making it difficult to even see while planting, let alone getting in the fields to spray.

My spray list after 2 days of wind and 2.5” of rain. pic.twitter.com/aTuWEFcocf
— Eric Earl Mondhink (@emondhinkFH05) April 21, 2025

He says last year was just as challenging with the wind proving to be a constant battle.

“Last year was really hard to spray. We sprayed 3,000 acres in the dark last year,” Hunter says .

Is This a Longer Term Trend?

The bigger question is if it is just a windy start to spring, or if the wind is here for the remainder of the season. There is some good news there.

“Is this part of a longer term trend? Some of the longer term data would say no, but it certainly feels as though we’ve had several springs in a row that have been extremely active with the wind,” Snodgrass says.

There’s No Question; It’s Been a Windy Spring

The windiest start to spring is hitting some places especially hard. Take Michigan for example. Michigan had its windiest March on record. Nine other states had their second windiest.

There are some exceptions, however; northern South Dakota, southern Texas and southern Florida saw some reprieve from the wind.

Recorded wind gusts in Mrch

(Ben Noll, Meteorologist, The Washington Post)

The highest anomalies compared to historical average, shown in dark orange on the map, were 1.6 to 2.4 mph (1 to 1.5 m/s) above that historical average.

In addition, AccuWeather meteorologists found that almost every major city east of the Rockies ranked first or second for the highest average wind gusts for March.

AccuWeather reports Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Little Rock, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Chicago broke their previous average wind gust record for March by a significant margin of 1 mph or more. Indianapolis was the windiest of the windy cities, breaking the previous average wind gust record of 33.69 mph in 2022 by 1.51 mph with a reading of 35.20 mph.

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked severe #thunderstorms that tore across the central U.S.
Along with flooding rain, the storms produced several reported #tornadoes, as well as more than 100 reports of damaging wind gusts. #GOES19

What's your forecast today?… pic.twitter.com/k2cbBzb50x
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) April 21, 2025

But that’s not all. Washington, D.C., New York City, Raleigh, Miami, New Orleans, Amarillo, Dallas, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls were also ranked the No. 1 windiest March. Boston, Jackson and Corpus Christi were No. 2.

AccuWeather says records for these cities go back 77 to 97 years, typically when the airports were built.

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:45:23 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:02:43 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

60% Drought Risk? The Latest Forecast For The 2025 Growing Season

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:28:06 GMT

Spring has officially sprung and that means heavy rains are on the way, specifically from eastern Texas into Ohio this week. Any fieldwork and planting will come to a halt, and Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass warns of significant flooding risk.

“We’ve got a swath of the country that could pick up anywhere between 5” to upward of 12” of rainfall,” he told “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “In the Ohio River and in the lower Mississippi River, there’s going to be a major flood trend.”

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s a chance for even higher totals in some areas.

“There are some indications we could see totals up in the 18" range likely across Arkansas on into parts of northwestern or northern Kentucky before this is all said and done,” Rippey told AgDay’s Michelle Rook.

Meteorologists have been warning of drought conditions for months now, so this type of weather system should have a positive impact, right? Wrong – Snodgrass explains this is the wrong time, wrong place.

“This is not a place where we’re missing out on moisture. This is the place we saw flood back in early March and even in parts of February,” he says.

The good news is snow is in the forecast for some areas in need of moisture, such as parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. But unfortunately, it likely won’t be enough.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” Snodgrass says. “When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%. Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coalmine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, it’s a bad sign.

“If in June we start to watch the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures drop, that’s actually symptomatic of the atmosphere losing momentum. And if it loses momentum, there’s nothing to keep the Bermuda high over Bermuda,” he says.

What It Means For Planting
With flooding in the East and drought in the West, Snodgrass plans to use the Mississippi River as his main moisture boundary this year.

“If you’re east of it, I think spring is super tight. If you’re west of it, we have got to return moisture to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska in order to beat back any sort of risk of drought going forward,” he says. “I really just think it’s West versus East this year on who’s got the favorable conditions early versus the risk in the middle of the season.

Taking a closer look at that outlook for a wet spring in the East, Snodgrass specifically says the month of April is shaping up to be one week on and then one week off.

“Right now, we’re week on with heavy rains. Next week, we get cooler and drier. Week three in April goes right back into an active pattern,” he explains. “What I want to know is if week four of April brings in cold conditions right after Easter. If that occurs, we just threw the brakes on any early planting hopes. Right now though, it appears that most of spring would favor tighter windows in the East.”

Despite the current outlook, a challenging spring and dry summer doesn’t mean game over.

“Any sort of problem we thought we saw will be gone in a heartbeat with good July rainfall. We are not settled. There’s a lot to understand and change with this pattern,” Snodgrass says. “Let’s say we do have drought, but you don’t have the heat stress. We can make a huge crop in drought conditions, so don’t forget that.”

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Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Oregon Agriculture: Navigating Challenges and Embracing Resilience

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 14:24:16 GMT

Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Oregon’s economy, environment, and communities. Recently, Lisa Charpilloz Hanson, the Oregon Director of Agriculture, addressed the 2025 Oregon Dairy Farmers Convention in Salem, highlighting the significant roles that agriculture plays both within the state and beyond its borders.

Economic Impact
Agriculture, including farming, ranching, and fishing, forms the backbone of the Oregon economy. With over 531,000 jobs linked to agriculture, food, and fiber production, Oregon’s total farming value stands at approximately $5.5 million, while the overall economic impact of the food system reaches a staggering $42 billion. Dairy alone contributes about $725 million to state commodities, supporting health and wellness both locally and globally.

“The people in Oregon agriculture are incredibly special,” Hanson says, noting that with 95% of farms family-owned and operated, the industry stands out for its unique approaches and diversity. “Remarkably, 44% of the agricultural producers are women, positioning Oregon as a national leader in this respect.”

Challenges and Resilience
However, the Oregon ag industry is not without its challenges. Economic pressures, such as inflation and rising input costs, hit hard, while environmental stresses like heat, wildfires, erratic weather, and drought pose serious concerns. Furthermore, the global market faces uncertainties due to tariffs and export disruptions.

“Farm income was down in 2023, and it was down again in 2024 and by all anticipation we’re anticipating it’ll be down again in 2025. Many challenges are outside our producer’s control, including inflation, rising input costs, labor, housing, fuel, fertilizer and the impact of tariffs and trade on your commodities,” Hanson says.

Despite these hurdles, Oregon farmers demonstrate resilience, adapting and innovating in the face of adversity. Environmental conservation, including healthier soils and water, along with habitat creation, remains pivotal.

“There are significant concerns about the well-being of our farmers and ranchers across the U.S., the environment and climatic changes that we’re dealing with in terms of heat, wild fires, extreme events in terms of weather, rain, earlier and later in our crop cycles and drought with hotter and drier summers for Oregon, raised essential concerns of what our potential fire season may look like,” she says. “We are talking a lot about our pressures in terms of water, the stressors on our groundwater systems and our surface water for production are ongoing concerns for our farmers and ranchers across the state.”

Food Safety and Export
Food safety is another priority, with an emphasis on maintaining strong safety systems amidst changes in the FDA.

“The current conversations around tariffs and the potential for retaliatory tariffs is a concern for all of agriculture to comply to compound market uncertainty. During the COVID crisis, we lost a foothold in many of our export markets due to supply and change disruptions,” Hanson says, noting that concerns about the current economic trends, inflation, the regulatory landscape, and ongoing changes with the federal agencies are things that we need to watch closely and monitor.

While facing numerous challenges, Oregon’s agricultural community not only survives but thrives. Its importance to the economy, environment, and communities remains undeniable. Farmers across the state continue to demonstrate innovation, adaptability, and resilience, ensuring agriculture remains a fundamental part of Oregon’s future.

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