Yield

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:41:51 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:17:28 GMT

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then the video Iowa farmer Dan Striegel shot last week must be worth thousands more. In the video, Striegel is shown harvesting a field of emerald-green corn enveloped in a cloud of orangish-red southern rust.

“We were just getting that field opened up, and I looked over and saw that dust boiling up out of the chopper, so I shot the video,” Striegel says.

Southern Rust? Never heard of her.
What Cheer, Iowa. USA. #pftour25 #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/tiIsUc2CHl
— Dan Striegel (@djsinseia) August 21, 2025

To date, Striegel’s video has garnered more than 48,000 views on X, formerly Twitter.

“We’re in southeast Iowa, Keokuk County, and I think the southern rust is as bad here as it is anywhere,” Striegel adds. “Every field you walk in, if you’re wearing a white T-shirt, you’ll come out of there red.”

A Red Path Of Disease Mars The Midwest

Expect to see more red T-shirt-clad farmers walking out of cornfields across the upper Midwest, based on what the Crop Protection Network (CPN) southern rust map is showing.

The CPN continually updates its online, interactive map showing the counties by state where southern rust infections are confirmed. Now, in late August, the counties look like red steppingstones. They form a checkered path from southwest Michigan through northern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Wisconsin, across all of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of the way across Nebraska. Eastern South Dakota is also lit up with a string of red counties, as are parts of southern to central Minnesota.

The amount of southern rust present in the upper Midwest is worrisome to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. In severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the CPN.

“At most, one in 10 growers in northern Iowa and Minnesota have seen the kind of southern rust some of them are seeing this year,” says Ferrie, who was working last week with corn growers in both states.

“It was a problem in probably eight out of every 10 fields I was in, and they’d all been sprayed at least once,” he says. “Minnesota has a corn crop that’ll knock your socks off – yield potential of 250, 270. I encouraged every grower to spray their field a second time except for two fields. One had been knocked down by hail, and the other had a hybrid that was clean.”

I spoke with a good friend of mine from Iowa yesterday that is an agronomist and farmer. He said the southern rust in corn across Iowa and much of the Midwest will take 9 to 12 bushel/acre off corn yields on average from what his team and himself are seeing. pic.twitter.com/Ad1VJ9oQBg
— Captain Cornelius1 (@ISU145) August 26, 2025

Hybrids Have Little To No Resistance To Southern Rust

A combination of early-season moisture, heat and wind formed the perfect storm for southern rust this season, allowing the disease-causing fungal spores (Puccinia polysora) to move from southern climes up to the Midwest, according to Kurt Maertens, BASF technical service representative for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.

“We’ve seen it all – southern rust, tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot. Our corn has been inundated with all these fungal diseases, and we started seeing them early,” says Maertens.

If there’s a silver lining to southern rust, it’s that it does not overwinter in corn residue like tar spot does. But like tar spot, southern rust takes advantage of hybrids that have no built-in resistance. For many growers, that was an Achilles heel this season.

“When you’re dealing with a 117-day hybrid like they grow in southern Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, you don’t grow corn that doesn’t have good southern rust resistance, because they deal with it every year,” Ferrie notes. “When you move to Minnesota, and you’re planting 102- to 95-day corn, you’re probably not going to find hybrids with southern rust resistance.”

Striegel says that was true for his neighbor’s cornfield, which he custom chopped for silage. “That field had two hybrids in it, one was worse than the other, and the field had been sprayed with a fungicide,” he says.

He adds that he also sprayed his own cornfields with fungicide, but they are still inundated with southern rust.

“We’ve had southern rust before, and it’s not usually something we have to worry about, but this is really bad,” Striegel says. “I’m standing on my deck looking at the cornfield next to my house, and you know, all of the leaves from the ears down in that field are covered with it.”

Southern rust is real in eastern Nebraska. Fungicide 3 weeks ago, 2nd app today with some potassium acetate pic.twitter.com/WZubU6IBwz
— Trent Mastny (@TrentMastny) August 21, 2025

How Late Is A Fungicide Application Still Worthwhile?

Ferrie says the fields he scouted last week were at late R3 to early R4 and had already been sprayed with fungicide at least once, but the disease was rebuilding.

“Any field where farmers had sprayed two weeks previously, the southern rust and northern corn leaf blight, to a lesser degree, were coming back, especially the southern rust. It was resporating,” he says.

The intense disease pressure from southern rust, tar spot and others have kept fungicide use at high levels this season, despite poor commodity prices.

“Because of that [amount of disease pressure], we have seen increased demand for our fungicides this year,” says Maertens, who encouraged customers to get applications made at the beginning of tassel.

Maertens says he has fielded a lot of questions this summer from farmers, asking how late they could go with a fungicide application and still benefit.

“Our recommendation is to get in front of disease,” he says. “Generally, we stop applications before we get to dent (R5). That’s not to say a later application can’t have some benefit, but our best results have been before infection was able to take place.”

Southern rust is a yield enemy farmers routinely face in the Southeast, reports corn yield champion Randy Dowdy, Valdosta, Ga. He participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week and said on U.S. Farm Report he believes many Midwest farmers still have time to address disease.

“We need to implore the fungicides, the technologies out there and get after it and protect this crop, especially that crop that still has not reached dent,” he says.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer likes to see farmers complete their fungicide applications on the front side of dough (early R4). “Once we get to early dent, I think it’s a little more challenging to get the payback consistently, though we’ve applied at early dent (R5), and seen a nice response,” says Bauer, who is based in south-central Michigan.

Under the tough disease pressure farmers are facing this year, Bauer is telling growers to scout fields and evaluate what growth stage their crop is in before they walk away or pull the fungicide trigger one last time.

She adds that farmers need to check the label to make sure the product used is able to address southern rust effectively. She describes these as “Cadillac” products containing the newest chemistry.

“When it comes to some of these diseases, especially southern rust and tar spot, I do believe a little bit of a Hail Mary pass can be effective,” she says. “Will it be as effective as an application you could have made on a more timely basis? Well, no, you could have made more money doing it timely, but you’re still protecting bushels and gaining ROI at the end.”

Ferrie adds that farmers might want to do the late-season fungicide application to keep their corn crop standing until they can put their harvest plan in place.

“Be doing the push test to check stalk quality,” he advises.

Southern Rust/Silage Alert!!

Southern Rust has been aggressively advancing in many fields, especially those without a fungicide treatment. In some situations the plants are shutting down prematurely and plant material is senescing rapidly.

While we typically want to get down… pic.twitter.com/aK3hGgZE19
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) August 26, 2025

Striegel says some of the farmers around him are heading to fields to harvest their silage corn sooner than later, because of standability concerns. “Some of this corn got planted early, and we had a lot of heat. The crop matured quickly, and the diseases are kind of shutting it down. It’s just dying out, and guys are going to go get it,” he explains.

That’s the strategy Ferrie encourages farmers to use in regular production corn, too.

“Harvest the fields most at risk first. But if a field of corn goes down, go combine the fields where the corn is still standing and come back to that one later,” he recommends.

The reasoning is you don’t want to risk more corn going down while you’re harvesting the field of corn that already has.

“While I was driving through Iowa last week, I kept thinking that if I built corn reels to pick up down corn I’d bulk up my inventory, because I know where they’re going to get used,” Ferrie says, only half joking. “Yes, harvesting corn at 25% moisture is expensive, but down corn will kick your butt.”

Your next read: Revenge Applications: Why They Don’t Work, Cost You Money and Bushels, and Are Frankly Illegal

What's Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 13:19:12 GMT

The view of the corn crop from the road this year looks good. Fields have lush green corn plants and even stands, which is why farmers had high hopes for bin-busting yields.

But as farmers wade into their fields and pull back the husks, some are finding an unpleasant surprise: an issue with overly tight wrapped tassels .

“It’s a very unique phenomenon we’re dealing with, and a lot of these issues have come from tassel wrapping,” says Dan Quinn, Extension corn specialist for Purdue University.

"Tassel wrap" showing up in WC Indiana (photos taken July 10), joining the party seen across much of the Midwest. Seems linked to hybrid, planting date, and pre-symptom temp swings. Potential pollination issues also observed ~10 days after symptoms.@PurdueAgronomy @PurdueAg pic.twitter.com/qVKDr7m1Th
— Dan Quinn (@PurdueCorn) July 21, 2025

Quinn started seeing the pollination problem in some of his own fields, and once he took a closer, he says it was quick to diagnose if you caught the field at the right time.

“It’s just a function of these tassels being almost stuck in the upper leaves,” he explains. “We’re seeing those upper leaves tightly wrap around the tassel, and in many cases it’s delaying the tassel emergence.”

He says that delay from the overly tight tassels is throwing off the synchronization of pollination at a critical time, and now it’s showing up in the form of poorly pollinated ears.

“The big thing with corn is we talk about the synchrony between pollen drop and the silk emergence,” Quinn says. “[Pollination] a very fairly short window in corn. Anything that throws out that timing can cause issues with pollination.”

What’s catching so many farmers by surprise is the fact crop conditions look phenomenal across many areas of the country this year thanks to good planting conditions and timely rains. In fact, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows nearly three-quarters of the nation’s corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition.

“You have to get in there and peel back the husks,” Quinn says. “You have to take a look at kernel development. Another thing we often look at is when silks, or the ovules on the kernel, are fertilized. When that occurs, the silks will detach. If you carefully pull back the husk, you have to be careful, and you can actually shake the ear to see which silks fall off or which ones actually stay attached.”

Pollination Problems in Iowa

Mark Licht, an Extension cropping systems specialist at Iowa State University, first started seeing corn pollination issues in early July .

“Some of those first tasseling fields were where this really started to show up,” Licht says. “I think that’s attributed to some of the characteristics around what’s causing it, and it kept going until probably about a week ago is when we kind of stopped seeing it in the field. But then, of course, farmers that had noticed the pollination issues, and that’s when, they were still getting agronomists, myself and others out to look at their fields.”

Tightly wrapped tassels in SW IN—seems to be hybrid specific. Planter was split in each field—The other hybrid and refuge shot normal tassels. pic.twitter.com/xyJFqaG4Oy
— Hillari Mason (@HillariMason) July 21, 2025

He says the tight tassel wrap usually lasts around three to five days and is noticeable in fields during that time. But it’s a short window that growers can see the tassel tight tassel wrap in their fields. And when it grows out of it, and the tassel blossoms out like normal.

That means if farmers didn’t notice the tight tassel in that short three to five day window, they might not even know pollination problems exist in their field until they actually walk into the field and check ears to see how the corn pollinated.

“If it unwrapped quickly, we might only see a dozen or two dozen kernels that were not pollinating,” Licht says. “Some of them that stayed wrapped up a little bit tighter, longer, we might see 25% to a third of that ear didn’t pollinate well.”

What’s the Worst-Case Scenario in Iowa?

For Licht, he has seen fields where eight out of 10 ears had issues.

“One of the fields that I was in, it was about 80% of the ears, and it was probably in that 25% of the ear with poor pollination,” he says. “So, this pollination issues [from tight tassel wrap] could be somewhat significant. That’s a worst-case scenario. Most of this is on the fields with pollination issues that I’ve seen are on the lighter side of things where it may only be a dozen kernels or so impacted on an ear, and it might only be 20% of ears impacted.”

At Least 10 States Are Reporting Pollination Problems From Overly Tight Wrapped Tassels

Licht says the problem is widespread, but in Iowa, it appears to be primarily isolated to the central and southeast portions of the state. He’s also heard reports of tight tassel wrap impacting pollination in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana.

Add those seven states with reports of the problem in Missouri, Kansas and Ohio, and the total grows to 10 states seeing pollination issues this year.

What’s Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Plants experience tight tassel wrap each year, according to Licht, but he says the crop typically grows out of it before pollination. This year, the leaves stayed tightly wrapped around the tassel as the plant started to pollinate, which is where the issues occurred.

“I think we do see these plants wrap up each year. Typically it’s more in the mid-vegetative time period, so eighth leaf stage up to 13 or 14 leaf stage,” he says. “This is really rare when it’s wrapping around the tassel as the tassel is starting to shed pollen. I’ve been an agronomist for 20 plus years, and I think this is only the second time I’ve seen it.”

Record overnight temperatures.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien )

Both Licht and Quinn attribute this rare occurrence of tight tassel wrap during pollination to key environmental issues, including a lot of soil moisture and a sudden switch to high temperatures. The near-record overnight temperatures are also thought to have aided the problem. It was a “perfect storm” for issues to exist, and the hybrids impacted may have been more susceptible to rapid growth syndrome this spring.

“We had rapid growth at the end of that vegetative development,” explains Licht.

Can Bad Genetics or Poor Breeding Also Be to Blame?

Farmers are looking for someone, or something, to blame. After all, they have a lot riding on this year’s crop. And considering the issue is occurring across a wide geography of the Corn Belt, some critics are questioning if the issue is all weather or environmental related.

So that begs the following questions: Is it bad genetics? Is it poor breeding, or any one thing to pinpoint as the cause? Those are the questions we asked Licht.

“I don’t think so,” Licht says. “Yes, it is hybrid specific, and it’s happening across all brands, but some of the hybrids I’m hearing about were planted last year and the year before, but the problem didn’t show up. I think it’s really a combination of the hybrid and the environment coming together perfectly, and it’s more prolific this year.”

Kind of depressing pic.twitter.com/Mgf8dJd5dz
— Lance Schiele (@schiele_lance) July 22, 2025

The Issue Is Happening Across Several Seed Brands

Similar to Licht’s assessment, Quinn says it seems to be an issue across seed brands .

“I think this issue has been the biggest surprise because the areas where we see significant tassel wrap and the pollination issues are areas you would not expect to have any issues,” Quinn says. “The fields I’ve walked are some of the best corn fields in the state. Iowa has a lot of issues with [tight tassel wrap], but they have outstanding crop conditions in that state.”

Add ND to the list of states with wrapped tassels pic.twitter.com/VyeQ41og6s
— Blase Hendrickson (@hendricksonfarm) July 23, 2025

Quinn says from the fields he’s scouted, the issue is specific to a late April or first week of May planting date.

“A lot of that corn was reaching pollination in the past couple of weeks,” Quinn says. “If you look at our planting progress, on May 5, we had about 25% of the corn acres planted in Indiana. Based on that number, I would say maybe 10% to 20% of the acres can potentially be impacted in Indiana.”

He says best-case scenario is the tight wrapped tassel caused no pollination issues. Worst case, from what he’s seen, is 20% to 30% of a field is impacted by pollination issues.
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Watch the full discussion with Purdue’s Dan Quinn exclusively on Farm Journal TV .
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Quinn says that’s what makes it so hard to quantify the impact of pollination problems on the size of this year’s crop.

“We still need a lot more time to assess these fields, walk these fields, pull ears and take a look at pollination to get a better handle on the magnitude of it, Quinn says.

Why Isn’t the Corn Market Taking Note?

At the beginning of July, market analysts and traders were continuing to ramp up yield forecasts, which sprouted from the fact crop conditions are so strong, and moisture from the Gulf continued to pump rainfall across the Midwest. Some yield forecasts were as high as 189 bu. per acre, which would be well above the 181 bu. per acre national yield forecast currently projected by USDA.

With no way of knowing the scope or severity of the pollination problems, market analysts say the U.S. corn crop is still shaping up to be good. The pollination problems could trim a few bushels off the extremely high national yield forecasts being thrown around.

“From our vantage point, yes, it does help temper some of the 185, 186, 187 yield forecasts?” says Jim Emter, CEO of Van Ahn and Company. “We’re more in that tune right now of a 179 to 184 [bu. per acre national yield forecast]. It feels like we’re in a race to print the biggest one right now by a lot of people.”

Still, farmers are frustrated. They see the social media posts about pollination problems, and then some walk their own fields, only to find pollination issues firsthand. They’re frustrated the corn market isn’t reacting to what could be an unexpected production problem this year.

AgTraderTalk’s Garrett Toay was on “U.S. Farm Report” this week and was asked why the issue isn’t moving the markets yet.

“Nobody knows,” Toay says. “I’ve talked to industry contacts; I think it’s a fairly widespread issue. It’s not brand specific as we originally thought early on, and what I’m being told is the corn plant grew too quickly in some areas. It works itself out in some areas, but I think the problem of the market is it’s not too concerned about it or not paying attention to it because we don’t know how widespread it is. We don’t know if it will even have an impact on the actual yield. But it’s one of those things we’ll trade when we get there sort of thing.”

Puzzling Problem

It’s a puzzling problem, especially in fields where planting got off to a strong start, and from farmers to agronomists, it’s catching everyone by surprise.

“That’s been the biggest surprise is that we can still have issues even when things look really good out there,” Quinn says.

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Watch the full discussion with Iowa State’s Mark Licht exclusively on Farm Journal TV.

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Near Ideal Growing Conditions?

There’s no secret that pollination problems are an issue in corn this year. However, critics question how weather is playing a factor when the U.S. has experienced near ideal growing conditions this year.

Nutrien’s Eric Snodgrass says moisture has been almost ideal, but the overnight temperatures mgith be playing a factor into the issues farmers are seeing. Watch his discussion, along with the rainfall forecast for the next few weeks.

How Important Are This Year's Planting Delays?

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 20:53:25 GMT

Farmers aren’t quick to take rain for granted, but the weather this spring has continued to test their patience. As multiple weeks of significant rainfall pushes planting progress far behind last year’s pace , Scott Irwin, professor at the University of Illinois, says these delays may not affect corn yields as much as you think.

Irwin explains corn’s optimal planting window is between April 20 to May 15 in the corn belt, and after that a decrease in yield should be expected.

“I’ve developed some models to estimate that penalty,” he shared on an episode of the Top Producer podcast. “Based on national planting progress statistics, I find that for each percentage of the U.S. corn crop planted after May 20, yield goes down by about 0.35 bushels.”

On average, he says about 20% of corn is planted after the optimal window. However, this year’s USDA planting progress report on May 19 showed 30% had yet to be put in the ground.

“My personal trend yield forecast for the U.S. corn crop this year is 182.1 bushels per acre,” Irwin says. “You’d probably want to drop that by two to three bushels per acre right now because of above-normal late planting.”

While losing that yield isn’t ideal, rain delays during planting likely won’t be the biggest weather event to impact this year’s crop.

“There’s definitely a pecking order in terms of the most important yield influencing factors for corn production here in the U.S.,” Irwin says. “There’s what I call the golden number for Illinois agriculture and that golden number is four – four inches of rain during July. That’s the No. 1 most important factor for corn yields year in and year out.”

Irwin explains his golden number can swing corn yields by 20 to 30 bushels compared to four or five bushels from late planting.

To hear more from Irwin, including his best advice for commodity marketing, listen to this episode of the Top Producer podcast.

Corn and Soybean Prices Tank After USDA Report Makes Surprising Revisions to Yield

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:41:03 GMT

USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.

The big news in the report was the revisions to yield. USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre.

USDA also cut harvested acreage, but with the big increase in production, USDA pegs the 2023 corn production figure of 15.34 billion bushels.

The increases to yield and production were larger than what the trade expected, which caused corn prices to sink.

“We got a lot of criticism for our estimate all summer long being too high. And we ended up too low,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group. “This crop, I’m just really impressed with, not just the genetics of it, but farmers with their technology, the seed placement, just the management of it. They are getting better and better at withstanding the stresses and it just makes you wonder how good this crop might have been had we not had the stresses we had.”

(Farm Journal)

USDA also increased demand, which helped offset a portion of the increased yield. USDA increased feed use by 25 million bushels. The agency also increased ethanol use by 50 million bushels.

“Those revisions were pretty much in line with what the trade expected,” says Jim McCormmick of AgMarket.net. “And I guess it’s a good thing because without those upward revisions of demand, this carryout would have really exploded to the upside. And I think the market could’ve had an even worse negative reaction than it’s currently having.”

Surprise in Soybeans

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November. Soybean production is now pegged at 4.16 billion bushels.

Suderman says these yield increases are something farmers should note, especially with the current debate on how much of an impact weather will have on Brazil’s crop that’s currently in the ground.

“The same genetics we plant here we plant in South America as well, essentially, so we need to look at South America in that same light,” Suderman says. “This crop really did well, especially in eastern Midwest. We saw some really good yields from corn and soybeans this year. And some of that may have been some of the benefits from the smoke coming from the Canadian fires. That’s one of the theories now that was sulfur and some other positive effects were coming from that smoke.”

Cuts to Brazil

After drought impacted Brazil’s crop for much of the growing season, USDA cut its soybean forecast in Brazil to 157 million metric tons. That’s down from the 161 million metric tons forecast in the last report. USDA also trimmed its corn estimate for Brazil by 2 million metric tons.

“Traders were looking for bigger cuts,” McCormick says. “The rhetoric I think was even for bigger cuts and what the average straight guess was. So yeah, it was definitely a little bit disappointing. But time will tell where we’re at. Some of the modeling I’ve seen for the weather is that we are going to turn a little bit warmer and drier here in the middle part of January, and with this latest crop that has been planted, that could cause some problems to that crop and still shrink it. And of course, we still haven’t started planting safrinha corn crops. So the size of that crop is yet to be determined.”

Quarterly Grain Stocks

(Farm Journal)

USDA’s revisions to the 2023 crop production numbers pushed the quarterly grain stock estimates higher and above trade expectations.

Corn stocks are forecast up 13% to 12.2 billion bushels. Soybeans were adjusted down 1% from December to 3 billion bushels.

Wheat supplies on December 1 were forecast to be up 8% from a year ago at 1.41 billion bushels.

Better Yields and Improved Crop Prices Propel Ag Economists' Outlooks for 2024

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 20:26:11 GMT

After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists’ views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.

“The biggest takeaway I see out of the Monthly Monitor this month is we’re seeing a lot more positives than we’ve seen for the last couple of months,” says Scott Brown, the interim director for the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, who also helps author the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is conducted by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal each month, as it’s a way to gauge not only the state of the ag economy but also explore the impacts of policy and trade. Brown says as commodity prices have seen some momentum, outlooks among economists are also shifting more positively for 2024.

“I think when you look at where we are in terms of our estimates for crop prices, and we’re talking about crop prices for harvest next fall at this point, we saw a number of more positive responses, maybe the most positivity since we started our estimates for 2024/2025. As both corn and soybeans continue to move higher, there’s more positive news this month,” Brown adds.

Spike in 2024 Net Farm Income Forecasts

(Farm Journal)

That positivity also boosted net farm income estimates. The November Monthly Monitor asked ag economists to provide their outlook for net farm income in 2024. The survey found ag economists now expect a big spike in net farm income forecasts for the new year.

“Farm income estimates were raised almost $5 billion for 2024, relative to what they would have said in October,” Brown says. “And I think that just resonates as you look at higher estimates of corn prices and higher estimates of soybean prices, things just look a little better than where we were a couple of months ago.”

(Farm Journal)

What’s driving improved outlooks in the farm economy? Economists say commodity prices, including improved yields and harvest picture for some commodities.

Another major factor is South America. When asked what factors will impact crop prices in the next six months, economists say:

South American crop production (including weather impacts on planted acres) and related export sales.
Global dynamics in general, as well as conditions and production in key regions like the Black Sea and China.
U.S. export demand strength and growing crop supplies.
Final U.S. crop size and weather-related impacts.

Weather Worries in South America

The latest USDA report pegged Brazil’s corn production at 129 million metric tons, but according to the Monthly Monitor, that estimate may be too optimistic.

“Our survey of the economist would have suggested 126.5 mmt right now,” Brown says. We did have some answering very near that 129 mmt and others saying 125 mmt. It’s a combination of weather as well as economics, not all that great. That is leading to some lower estimates.”

When asked what’s driving changes in the crop forecasts for Brazil and Argentina? Economists say it’s all about weather, the impacts of El Nino and delayed planting that could eat into the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. Economists also say Brazil could be looking at fewer soybean acres.

“Uncertain, volatile weather conditions - either too wet or too dry as Brazil transitions from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns,” says one economist when asked what are the factors driving the change in estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop. “Plus, delayed plantings of the 2024 Brazilian Soybean crop with substantial replantings required is hurting production potential.”

Bullish Views on Cattle Continue

While views on crop prices turned more positive in the latest Monthly Monitor, economists are still bullish longer-term on cattle.

“I think folks are more positive still on the cattle side of the equation, despite what’s been the last few weeks of some lower cattle prices,” Brown says. “We are talking about an industry that continues to talk about record or near record, and perhaps in early 2024, we get back to record prices yet again.”

(Farm Journal)

The outlook for pork prices, as well as dairy, continued to see some pressure, but overall, the factors economists think will impact livestock prices over the next six months include:

Weaker demand domestically and globally.
Global economic health, including slowdown/recession in some geographies.

Health of the Farm Economy by Geography

This month’s survey also asked ag economists to rank the health of the farm economy by geography. The strongest region of the country, according to economists survey, is the Midwest.

“I think we ended up with especially better corn yields than anybody would have thought. Maybe soybean yields are not even as bad as some would have suggested. And then again, cattle still being very positive there, Brown says.

(Farm Journal)

According to economists surveyed, there were a multitude of factors that played into how they ranked each geography, including:

Drought and weather
Government policy impacts upon state and metropolitan economic health.
Commodity /crop mix

“Certainly, crop and livestock mix is important,” says one economist in the anonymous survey. “While corn prices are lower the combination of yields and prices were likely profitable for many. But lower prices have come on the heels of very high prices in the last couple of years. Hog and dairy returns are dragging down financial health in the sector regionally. Cattle prices are boosting overall returns in the Plains. But drought has certainly hurt ranchers, including water in the West.

Impact of Interest Rates (Both Positive and Negative)

Economists are still concerned about how interest rates could negatively impact agriculture over the next 12 months, but for the first time, economists now view it as a possible positive over the next year.

When asked, “What do you view as the most negative aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture?”, the Monthly Monitor shows:

High interest rates, market volatility and a shortage of working capital create a challenging economic climate.
Production challenges range from weather conditions to commodity prices and policy support.
A need for investment into increasing domestic and demand for U.S. products.

When followed up with, what do you view as the most positive aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture, economists say:

Economic resiliency of the farm operator, including strong financial positions for some operators and farm income forecasts remaining above the long-term average. Some optimism for stabilizing interest rates.
Promising new demand opportunities, including the expansion of biofuel uses, as well as continued consumer demand.
Improvements in technology and the possibility of better production in 2024.

“The news that we seem to be getting right now is, although inflation is still a problem, maybe less so than we would have thought. So perhaps we’re getting near the end of interest rate increases, I even see some out there suggesting we could get lower interest rates as we get into 2024,” Brown says.

Outlook for Crop Mix in 2024

Economists were also asked to shift their focus to 2024. Economists say the most important factors that could affect 2024 crop plantings/acres in the U.S. are:

Spring 2024 weather conditions and drought concerns.
Corn-soybean price ratio affecting decisions, as well as planting prospects for corn/soybeans/cotton and wheat profitability.
Changes in output prices, higher input costs, crop insurance price levels and 2024 futures prices affecting planting decisions.
South American crop production and demand (domestically and globally) impacting prices.

As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here's What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 18:35:26 GMT

Drought was a major storyline for U.S. crop conditions last summer. Dry conditions spurred by La Nina weighed on corn yields across areas of the Corn Belt. As La Nina fades, and El Niño starts to make a return, meteorologists say the weather shift could also signal better crop production in 2023.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and it’s associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. While it can bring warm temperatures around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

“We do have a great suite of models that we’d like to just combine and compare, and what’s interesting about this particular year is they’re all telling the same story. And that story is that we expect most of the Corn Belt to have decent summer thunderstorm activity, decent precipitation and a lack of long duration episodes of heat,” says Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions . “We always get short heat waves, but I’m talking about the long duration ones that can really go in there and destroy yields.”

Change in Pattern Hints Change in Summer Growing Conditions

He points out with most models signaling the return of El Nino, it is also a hint of what type of growing conditions crops like corn could see this summer.

“El Niño and the likelihood of it becoming a full-fledged El Niño by the time we get into summer, is pegged at about a 75% chance of occurring now,” says Snodgrass. “Should it manifest itself and be the most dominant, what we call teleconnection in the pattern, we would likely be seeing a better year overall.”

Snodgrass says his forecast for favorable growing conditions this summer is based off previous El Niño years, and particularly, El Niño summers.

“Since 1970, we’ve had 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had trendline yields slightly above that. This means we generally think of El Niño summers of having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms, so we’ll keep a close eye on it,” he says.

Read More: Punishing Drought Now Expected to Persist Through July Across Texas, Plains

Drought in the Plains Still a Concern

The area Snodgrass is most concerned about is the southern Plains. Growers in the area are finally seeing chances of rain, but he says considering how deep the drought is in areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, it will take above normal precipitation to eat away at the punishing drought.

“The places I’m most concerned about right now have to be the places that are already in drought because it takes so much effort to overcome the lack of soil moisture in those places,” he says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also watching El Niño, and the more short-term need for moisture across the Plains. He says timing of those rains will be key.

“If you talked to me a month ago, I would have been talking about how we expect to see El Niño by the end of the calendar year. But all of a sudden, as we look at the how the Pacific Ocean is evolving, it seems like El Niño is more and more imminent each passing day,” says Rippey. “From a drought standpoint, that ultimately should be good news for these drought-affected areas of the Great Plains, because that should help this transition out of drought. But the big question is, will it come in time to salvage summer crop planting?”

WASDE Report Shows Drought Could Cause Third Largest Loss of Acres on Record for This Dairy Feed Source

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 20:42:26 GMT

The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from USDA isn’t a major market moving report historically, and the latest report was no different. With no major surprises in USDA’s latest adjustments to balance sheets, commodity prices continued to see double-digit losses Tuesday.

The focus of the markets remains on weather forecasts and if recession concerns will continue to impact money flow in the major U.S. commodities. Even with the forecast for hot and dry weather into August, September corn was down 34 cents mid-day, and the August soybean contract was 50 cents lower.

With an update to both domestic and world demand and supplies, USDA’s July report shows:

Higher U.S. corn supplies and ending stocks
No change to U.S. corn yield
Lower domestic soybean production
No change to U.S. soybean yields
Third highest abandonment for cotton on record
A boost to South American supplies
Increase in U.S. wheat supplies due to higher yields and harvested area

Where’s the Cotton?

Cotton prices have been in a free-fall this past month, with economists saying the fundamentals still haven’t changed as U.S. farmers could see a dramatic drop in harvested acres due to drought. USDA’s latest report served as a reminder of just how brutal the ongoing drought is for U.S. farmers, especially across the Southern Plains.

#WASDE raised assumed abandonment to 31.5% for U.S. #cotton. The last time they made a similar pre-August adjustment in their assumptions was 2011. Prod'n=15.5Mb, Exports=14Mb, and Ending Stocks=2.4Mb.
— John Robinson (@aggie_prof) July 12, 2022

USDA’s forecast for the 2022/2023 cotton crop shows higher planted acres, but abandonment is now forecast to be the third highest on record at 31.5%. With a bite out of harvested area, USDA thinks the U.S. cotton crop could fall 1 million bales. USDA also decreased exports by 500,000 bales, as well as ending stocks by 500,000 bales.

Cottonseed hulls are a feed source for dairy cows. With such high abandonment, along with drought impacting silage in areas of Texas and the Western U.S., there’s also concern about what it will mean for feed availability on U.S. dairies.

Corn Production Increased on More Acres

USDA increased its new crop corn production forecast by 45 million bushels. The move was tied to USDA’s most recent acreage report that showed farmers planted 89.9 million acres of corn this year, up slightly from the 89.4 million penciled in the March report.

USDA didn’t touch the national average corn yield estimate of 177 bu. per acre. The agency raised beginning stocks by 25 million bushels due to reduced feed and residual use, and ending stocks were also increased by 70 million bushels.

The latest report also made adjustments to global supplies, reducing both production and use. USDA reduced corn production in Russia, EUA and Kenya, but raised its forecast for Paraguay’s corn yields and acres. Even with discussion of a potential record safrinha corn crop in Brazil , USDA didn’t increase its corn production forecast for Brazil or Argentina.

Shrinking Soybean Production Forecasts

The July WASDE report indicates U.S. soybean production will fall 135 million bushels this year to 4.5 billion bushels. The reduction is partially due to USDA’s June acreage report showing fewer soybean acres across the U.S., with the latest forecast falling to 87.5 million planted acres this year. USDA didn’t touch its soybean yield estimate in July.

The latest look at soybean demand shows a 10 million bushel reduction in soybean crush, soybean exports down 65 million bushels due to lower U.S. supplies and an increase in South American supplies. USDA bumped Argentina’s crop up to 44 million metric tons (mmt), but left Brazil’s crop production forecast unchanged.

World Wheat Supplies

As the world keeps a close eye on wheat supplies, USDA is now forecasting larger U.S. wheat supplies for the 2022/23 crop, as well as an increase in domestic demand and exports. USDA increased U.S. wheat supplies by 44 million bushels based on a bump in harvested acres and higher yields.

“The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area,” USDA’s WASDE report stated.

World wheat production was decreased for the EU, Ukraine and Argentina, but increased in Canada and Russia. In total, USDA now forecasts a 2 million ton decrease in the EU crop mainly due to drought impacting the crop in Spain, Italy and Germany. USDA also factored in the expected reduction in the harvested acres across Ukraine. The agency dropped Ukraine’s wheat production forecast by 2 million tons to 19.5 million tons.

A reduction in feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine also impacted world consumption of wheat. USDA lowered its wheat consumption forecast 1.8 million tons to 784.2 million.

Sowing Seeds of Discontent

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 17:26:17 GMT

In case you missed it you can now share the -8-25-20 evening of absurdity with nationally-syndicated cartoonists Leigh Rubin, creator of the comic strip “Rubes,” and Wisconsin State Journal editorial cartoonist Phil Hands. This odd couple riffed off each other’s cartoons, demonstrated how the twisted minds of two different cartoonists work. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from a professional smart-aleck or full-time doodler, now’s your chance!

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/DMKXBYXOkHQ