Robin Schmahl

Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker and owner of AgDairy LLC, a full-service commodity brokerage firm located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. He can be reached at 877-256-3253 or through their Web site at www.agdairy.com.

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The markets are always filled with surprises and this year has been no exception. Butter prices have reached new highs while dry whey and nonfat dry milk markets have remained flat.
Seasonal buying is taking place, but sellers continue to offer product on the spot market leaving buyers unaggressive.
Higher milk prices may not necessarily mean greater income depending on feed prices. The recent hot weather has had an impact on milk production, but it also may have had an impact on crop yields.
August milk prices will be much better than July, but still far from where we would like them to be. Here’s what to expect in the coming months.
The seasonal decrease of milk production, higher culling, and inventory of cheese not exceeding the levels of last year, may increase buyer interest on the spot market as they look ahead to later demand.
Cheese prices made a dramatic turn over the past month as buyers turned aggressive.
Lower prices may eventually stimulate exports. However, the current market struggles to find a bottom as supply exceeds demand.
Current production levels of dairy products and plentiful milk supplies leaves buyers unconcerned over buying milk.
The sideways price range of butter has been able to hold Class IV prices and futures at a better level than Class III.
It appears June Class III milk could be below $16.00 and back to the lowest level since August 2021.
Dairy product and milk prices are substantially lower than a year ago, yet this has not been reflected at the retail level. Thus, lower prices are not stimulating demand as consumers are not seeing them.
Dairy products continue to be offered on the spot market even though prices are already low. Sellers seem to want to move product and limit inventory rather than maintain a higher supply for upcoming demand.
Spot milk prices continue to remain lower than usual since the end of last year. Many plants are not purchasing the available milk even though plant capacity is not fully utilized.
The recent movement of barrel cheese is similar to some previous moves over the past two years. Each time price peaked and fell faster than it increased. Will this pattern again be repeated?
Milk prices have declined substantially within the last few months. Will this be the trend for the rest of 2023?