Last week, the U.S. dollar had the worst week-to-week performance since 1995 and that, combined with global dairy price premiums, should spark some export interest and support domestic prices.
U.S. cheese exports got off to a strong start in 2025, with outbound volumes totaling 103 million pounds in January, up 22% (+18 million pounds) on the year.
Cheese and butter are clear deals in the export space — but some traders indicate that tariff uncertainty has given them a reason to pause on what would normally be lucrative purchases.
Tariffs set to take effect tomorrow may have contributed to market movement, while increased cheese production capacity continues to weigh on the outlook.
Class III futures tumbled further, with the March contract down 31 cents to $18.70 per hundredweight and Q2 futures settling at $18.33, a 23-cent loss.
Today, futures reacted to strong offers on the spot auction for block cheddar cheese, which had been a point of strength for seasonally high cheese prices.
