Robin Schmahl

Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker and owner of AgDairy LLC, a full-service commodity brokerage firm located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. He can be reached at 877-256-3253 or through their Web site at www.agdairy.com.

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Cow numbers are lower than a year ago, but fewer cows are being culled than anticipated. The lower availability of replacements and strong interest in beef-on-dairy may influence the level of culling.
It seems as if the dairy industry has taken HPAI in stride. Price fluctuations have been the result of buyers of the physical commodity on the CME daily spot market doing normal business.
So far, HPAI has not had an impact on milk futures or the underlying cash prices. However, HPAI has not had an impact on milk futures or the underlying cash prices.
Cow numbers declined last year and will likely decline further if milk prices remain low. Tightening heifer numbers and higher milk replacement cow prices may reduce the ability of farms to keep stalls full.
The large decline in cow numbers and reduced milk production turned traders bullish, but that was short-lived. Will higher milk prices be delayed once again?
There is great optimism that butter prices will be higher than cheese prices this year.
Heifers are not as abundant as they had been with prices increasing significantly. Dairy cattle slaughter has slowed with farms showing more interest in purchasing cows to keep stalls full while fewer go to slaughter.
Producers want to know: “Why is milk production remaining high even with lower milk prices and farms going out of business?”
The hope is that depressed milk prices will be short lived. However, without a significant increase in demand or tighter milk supply or both, low prices may be with us for a longer duration.
Just how low will milk prices go? Slower exports, weaker demand and global inflation have all been an anchor on the potential for higher dairy product prices. Will we finally start to see some relief in 2024?
Heifer availability has tightened, and prices have increased substantially. One reason is the interest that has developed in beef-on-dairy calves.
With sufficient supply and much of the holiday buying being finished, there is little reason for buyers to be aggressive. The usual slower demand period is just around the corner.
Price movement in butter over the past 2 1/2 months has been a sight to behold.
Time is running out for a historical seasonal price increase for cheese.
Dairy farmers have recently turned their focus to the higher cheese and butter prices seen in the market. At the same time, dry whey prices have also silently moved higher, supporting Class III milk prices.