According to Morgan Stanley who recently shared research on calorie consumption for those taking GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide 1), like Ozempic or other weight-loss drugs have been reduced by 20-30%.
Phil Plourd, president with Ever.Ag Insights shared at the 2024 Pennsylvania Dairy Summit that 1 in 100 people are taking GLP-1 drugs.
“This number will increase as it becomes cheaper and eventually is offered in a pill form,” he said.
Plourd highlighted the point that 98-99% of people taking these GLP-1 drugs used to be type two diabetics.
“That number is now down to less than 70%,” he says, referring to more and more people taking these drugs for weight loss. “I think is something to keep an eye on as a potential threat going forward.”
Companies, like Walmart, Frito Lay and Pepsi are keeping a close eye on the impact GPL-1 drugs have, as it impacts consumers eating habits.
“The snack food companies are especially jittery around this topic,” Plourd says.
Pamela Kaufman, a tobacco and packaged food analyst for Morgan Stanley said that the food, beverage and restaurant industries could see softer demand, particularly for unhealthier foods and high-fat, sweet and salty options.
Kaufman outlined the impact of weight-loss drugs, like Ozempic on consumer behavior.
Repackaging Packaged Food: Confectionery baked goods and salty snacks appear to be most at risk from increased usage of obesity drugs, with analysts forecasting a drop in consumption of as much as 3% through 2035.
“Two-thirds of patients reported eating three or more snacks per day before starting the drugs, while 74% reported eating two snacks or less after starting the drugs,” says Kaufman.
Restaurant Rethink: Chains that mainly sell foods regarded as unhealthy face a longer-term risk, with same-store sales growth forecast to fall between 1% to 2%. But some fast-casual chains are already adapting by offering healthier menus, while others, such as pizza, doughnut or fried-chicken chains, have less flexibility and could be more exposed.
While we watch how Ozempic continues to shift from a prediabetic to a weight loss drug, indeed, the food industry, including the dairy industry is now exploring how these medications might potentially reshape the future of food consumption.
GoodsRX Health shares that the No. 1 food to avoid for Ozempic-users are foods that are high in fat, highlighting high-fat dairy products, like ice cream, cream, butter and some cheeses. They say that when they’re combined with Ozempic, the likelihood of developing gut side effects goes up.
While diet fads come and go, Ozempic and companies alike could be different, as they are being wildly endorsed by celebrities, like Oprah Winfrey, Amy Shumer and Sharon Osbourne. Social media and general media have taken notice, but so have food companies, as they wrap their heads around the changing consumer habits and what that means to their bottom line.
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