The global agri-food industry has reached a pivotal crossroads. According to the 2026 Alltech Agri-Food Outlook, the era of predictable, linear growth is over. While global feed production rose to 1.44 billion metric tons in 2025 — a 2.9% year-on-year increase — the report notes “the defining characteristic of 2025 was, therefore, not volume alone, but resilience under pressure.”
For the dairy sector, this global volatility is hitting home in a specific, high-stakes way: biosecurity.
A Global Shift: From Volume to Resilience
The Alltech report highlights while North American feed tonnage contracted slightly (0.7%), the dairy sector remained a bright spot, with demand for dairy feed increasing by 0.9%. However, this growth is being tested by permanent influences on profit and loss — most notably, endemic disease.
“Major animal disease outbreaks are no longer isolated or easy to eradicate; they are endemic challenges that can dictate supply chain economics and international trade flows,” the Alltech report states.
As a result, the industry is shifting its focus: “Success will increasingly be defined not by producing more, but by producing profitable, resilient volume.”
The Vulnerability Gap: Farm Journal Research
While the global strategy pivots toward trade resilience and regional zoning, recent Farm Journal research presented at the 2025 Milk Business Conference in Las Vegas, Nev., exposes a critical weakness at the farm level.
The data suggest there is a long way to go. While 68% of dairy farmers with at least 250 cows reported having a biosecurity plan, 34% admitted they do not review those plans regularly. Furthermore, the research identified physical security gaps that could prove costly: More than 20% of surveyed dairies neglected to secure access to barns, and 38% failed to limit access to areas where feed is stored.
This is a notable vulnerability due to the possible exposure to birds and other wildlife in addition to human contact. Visitor access monitoring is also a blind spot for 16% of producers, and only 33% of producers use camera surveillance to oversee their facilities.
“We need biosecurity efforts to be more impactful at the ground level. Not only to prevent major outbreaks, but to even protect employees and families from the things being taken home every day,” says Kirk Ramsey, Neogen’s professional services veterinarian who reviewed the biosecurity survey results.
The Screwworm Warning: A New Kind of Threat
The urgency for enhanced farm-level security is underscored by the sudden resurgence of biological threats once thought to be under control. The Alltech report highlights the 2025 outbreak of New World screwworm (NWS) in the U.S.-Mexico corridor as a primary disruptor. Last week, a case of NWS was confirmed in South Texas near La Pryor, according to USDA. The sample from a 3-week-old calf umbilical lesion was tested at USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, lowa. USDA reports personnel have been activated on the ground. This vector-borne threat caught health authorities off-guard and triggered an immediate halt to live livestock imports, sending shockwaves through the North American cattle cycle. For the dairy producer, the NWS crisis serves as a stark reminder that a biosecurity plan must be dynamic enough to address not just “the usual suspects,” but also the sudden return of legacy pathogens that can shut down international borders overnight.
Expert Insight: Closing the Implementation Gap
Derek Nolan, dairy education and extension specialist with the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, points to a specific area of vulnerability: animal movement.
“Before you purchase animals, have a vet-to-vet conversation,” Nolan advises. “Inquire about animal testing and herd-level tests ... review physical health, milk quality and past health records.”
This expert advice aligns with the National Milk Producers Federation’s (NMPF) perspective, which notes that while the industry has made strides through programs like FARM (Farmers Assuring Responsible Management), enhanced biosecurity measures have been instrumental in managing outbreaks and must be continuously updated to meet new threats like H5N1.
2026: Data as a Defense
As we look toward 2026, the ability to prove a farm is “disease-free” will be the difference between maintaining market access and facing devastating losses. The Alltech report suggests technology will be the primary tool for this defense, noting “data has become the sector’s most valuable non-biological asset, providing actionable insights that ... effectively optimize the producer’s entire value chain.”
Producers who use AI and real-time monitoring to defend their herds against biological threats will be the ones who thrive in an environment where just-in-time efficiency has been replaced by just-in-case resilience.
The Path Forward
To align with the global shift toward a more secure supply chain, the 2026 outlook suggests three non-negotiables:
- Risk Management: Moving biosecurity from a to-do list to a core business strategy.
- Operational Efficiency: Using data to identify health risks before they become outbreaks.
- Resilience as a Differentiator: Recognizing that, as Alltech puts it, “the ability to supply protein profitably is being tested.”
The era of dairy farming as a purely volume-driven enterprise is fading. In its place is a high-stakes landscape where the most successful producers are those who treat biosecurity as a strategic asset rather than a regulatory burden. As the Alltech and Farm Journal data suggests, the industry’s new normal is defined by a shift from a culture of compliance to a culture of competitive resilience. By closing the physical and digital gaps in their operations today, producers are doing more than just protecting their herds from the next outbreak — they are securing their standing in a global protein market that now demands proof of protection as the price of admission.
