Barb O’Brien has a prediction that should make every dairy farmer pay attention: There’s a protein reconciliation coming.
“Right now, it’s protein everywhere,” the retiring Dairy Management Inc. CEO told “The Milk Business Podcast” during a farm visit in Illinois.
“I think dairy protein will have a right to win — sort of that superiority story — because of the package that surrounds it,” O’Brien says.
After 25 years at dairy checkoff — the last five as CEO — O’Brien has watched protein claims proliferate across the food industry. Plant-based. Pea protein. Soy. Whey isolates. Protein bars, shakes and powders promising everything from muscle building to meal replacement.
But O’Brien believes the science DMI has funded will eventually prove what dairy farmers already know: Not all protein is created equal.
“The work we do in the nutrition, product and environmental science arena is difference-making,” O’Brien says. “That protein story has been validated and revalidated through science.”
And she’s betting dairy’s package — the complete nutritional profile, the bioavailability, the naturally occurring compounds — will win when consumers start asking harder questions about what’s actually in their protein.
It’s one of several bold predictions O’Brien is making as she prepares to step away from leading the organization that collects and invests dairy farmers’ 15-cent-per-hundredweight checkoff dollars.
The Incredible Milk Molecule
If there’s one thing that lights up O’Brien when discussing dairy’s future, it’s what she calls “this incredible milk molecule.”
“What we have discovered, in terms of potential, [is] previously unrealized compounds in milk that have enormous potential [not only] in our existing portfolio but also as an ingredient in and of itself,” O’Brien says enthusiastically.
DMI has laid out a 10-year research pipeline focused on discovering and commercializing these compounds. The organization’s job is ensuring that science gets shared with companies who can bring products to market.
“Our job is to make sure, on farmers’ behalf, that we’re sharing that science and supporting companies in commercializing,” O’Brien explains.
This isn’t abstract research. It’s about finding new uses, new products and new revenue streams from components of milk that may have been overlooked or undervalued.
The Reformulation Wave
O’Brien sees the early stages of this playing out in major consumer packaged goods companies reformulating products to include more dairy.
She cites Muscle Milk as an example — a brand that’s reformulated to emphasize dairy protein.
“You have got big consumer-packaged-goods companies attracted to the business, reformulating with dairy,” she says. “I think there’s so much potential there. I see that as a role and future responsibility for checkoff — just to make sure we’re pushing that portfolio further and further out.”
The strategy is working. Recent work in health and wellness has DMI identifying specific health conditions where dairy can play a meaningful role as a food-is-medicine solution, then sharing that research with companies developing products.
It’s science-driven product development at scale, and it’s only possible because dairy farmers give checkoff something most industries don’t have.
The Privilege of Long-Term Investment
O’Brien paused during the interview to thank farmers for something she says sets dairy checkoff apart: the ability to invest long-term.
“What a privilege you, as dairy farmers, give us to invest long-term,” O’Brien says. “We’re not unlike a normal corporation running on a typical P&L, but we try and bring that P&L mindset. But your investment allows us to invest in long-term research science that takes three, four years to prove out and then commercialize.”
That long-term investment capability is what enables the science pipeline, the health and wellness research and the discovery of new compounds in milk.
“If checkoff was not doing some of these fundamental capabilities on your behalf, I think there would be winners and losers,” O’Brien says. “We are working to prop up the whole of the category in a way that builds opportunity.”
It’s a subtle but critical point: Checkoff operates differently than private companies focused on quarterly earnings. Farmers’ mandatory investment creates the ability to fund research that might not pay off for years — but when it does, the entire industry benefits.
The Butter Flip: When Farmers Led Checkoff
One of the most dramatic transformations in U.S. dairy happened while O’Brien was CEO — and she’s candid about who drove it.
“The farmers are ahead of us in terms of driving that component story and the marketplace is responding,” O’Brien says.
She’s talking about the shift to component-focused milk production, driven largely by beef-on-dairy economics that made butterfat and protein more valuable than ever.
The result? In 2010, the U.S. imported 10 million pounds of butter. By 2024, imports peaked at 176 million pounds, with Irish brand Kerrygold dominating American grocery shelves.
Then, in 2025, everything flipped. The U.S. went from massive butter importer to butter exporter — with 80% of exports happening after August.
O’Brien called this out at a DMI board meeting about three years ago: “The farmers are ahead of us in terms of driving that component story.”
Checkoff’s role wasn’t leading the transformation; it was supporting the marketplace shift that made those components valuable through partnerships, export development and demand-building.
“It has changed the way you all operate,” O’Brien acknowledges. “And the marketplace is responding.”
The Consumer Split: Why Income Level Matters
O’Brien talks about consumer behavior and says the data shows a stark divide in American food spending by income.
The top 20% of households (earning over $250,000 annually):
- Spend just 8.1% of their income on food.
- Spend a total of about $17,000 annually.
The bottom 20% of households:
- Spend 32% to 33% of their income on food.
- Spend a total of just $5,300 annually.
“Consumers are different. What’s your income level matters,” O’Brien says.
This stratification is playing out in real-time dairy sales data in ways that shape checkoff strategy.
The Struggling Consumer
Quick-service restaurant sales — such as McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, Pizza Hut — are down year over year.
“That is the American consumer that’s struggling, that is eating more at home and not going to restaurants,” O’Brien explains. “That is impacting domestic cheese sales.”
The Premium Consumer
Meanwhile, high-income consumers are driving demand for premium products in unexpected ways.
O’Brien cites a study by Kansas State and Arizona State universities on consumers using GLP-1 weight loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy: They’re willing to pay up to $29 per pound for premium beef, nearly double the $16 threshold where average Americans start looking for alternatives.
“If I’m eating 70% of the calories I used to eat, I want to eat something that tastes good,” O’Brien explains. “They actually have more money to spend now because they’re buying less food.”
For dairy, this means two distinct strategies: value-focused products for price-sensitive consumers eating at home and premium dairy products for affluent consumers willing to pay for quality.
Checkoff has to serve both markets — and the partnerships reflect that split.
The Domino’s Relationship: More Than Pizza
When O’Brien talks about partnerships, she returns repeatedly to one with Domino’s — not just because it’s one of the longest-standing (started 2009) but rather because it exemplifies what she means by relationships that “transcend typical transactions.”
The partnership has now outlasted four Domino’s CEOs and multiple checkoff leadership changes. It’s survived because it’s about more than just putting more cheese on pizzas.
“Yes, it’s about menu development and more cheese on more pizzas, but it has also been about storytelling on the box, in the field, in advertising,” O’Brien says.
During COVID, checkoff worked with Domino’s on touchless delivery systems. When consumers shifted to online ordering, the partnership ensured dairy’s story was embedded in the digital experience.
“There’s just a cultural connection there that absolutely transcends typical transaction,” O’Brien says.
It’s what she calls a “hand-in-glove relationship” that leverages Domino’s scale, presence and marketing investment while advancing dairy’s demand-building goals.
“It leverages their scale. It leverages their presence in the marketplace. It leverages the investment they’re making in product launch, in marketing. It’s a one plus one equals three or five or 10 in my mind,” she says.
The Export Explosion
While domestic consumption gets most of the attention, O’Brien emphasizes that export growth is critical to absorbing the milk coming from $13 billion in new processing capacity.
The numbers tell a dramatic story:
- 1995 — The U.S. exported 2% to 3% of milk production.
- 2025 — 17% of production goes to export.
Domestic production growth during that period was 44%.
May 2025 marked a historic milestone: the first time in U.S. history that cheese exports exceeded 110 million pounds in a single month. Monthly exports haven’t fallen below that threshold since, with recent months topping 140 million pounds.
“We’ve reached a point that we’re exporting more dairy products than we are drinking in traditional forms,” O’Brien says. “This is a structural shift in how American dairy operates.”
Through July 2026, overall dairy consumption is up 2.8% — and both domestic and international levers are working.
“Even through some of the volatility, the trend line is going in the right direction,” O’Brien notes.
But she’s clear-eyed about the challenge: “As dairy farmers continue to do what you all do best, as production continues to rise, our job is to make sure we’re driving demand ahead of supply.”
The Listening Tour That Shaped a CEO
O’Brien came to dairy checkoff without farm experience — and she’s never pretended otherwise.
“I didn’t want to feel defensive about it, but I did feel I needed to say, ‘You didn’t hire me because you were looking for someone with farm experience,’” she recalls telling DMI’s leadership. “I brought an insight into the consumer and the marketplace and an experience there.”
When she became CEO five years ago, her first priority was what she called a listening tour — visiting farms across the country, sitting down with producers, understanding their lived experiences.
“My advice number one is to listen to your ownership. Listen to farmers. Take the time and understand the lived experience of farmers, and capture the wisdom that they bring and their perspective on the business,” O’Brien says, offering guidance to her successor.
That listening shaped how DMI evolved.
“It was about understanding how we needed to evolve as an organization to better meet the needs of our owners, to ensure our relevance in the marketplace,” she explains.
The 85-member DMI board — all dairy farmers — holds leadership accountable.
“It’s not a rubber stamp,” O’Brien emphasizes. “Every investment is reviewed. Every program has key performance indicators tied to them.”
The 10-Year Vision
Looking ahead, O’Brien sees three major trends shaping dairy’s future:
- Consolidation and vertical integration will continue. There will be fewer, larger operations with more direct supply chain connections.
- Globalization will accelerate. Emerging markets with growing middle classes will drive demand for nutrient-dense protein.
- Science and innovation will expand checkoff’s role — not just serving existing partners, but bringing new players into dairy.
“I think we will continue to push the envelope in terms of the science and the discovery role we play,” O’Brien says. “I think we will continue to play and expand our role as a science and innovation consultant.”
She’s particularly excited about reformulation opportunities — major consumer packaged goods companies attracted to dairy’s functional and nutritional benefits.
“When I think about not only the reformulations we’ve seen — you have got big consumer package goods companies attracted to the business, reformulating with dairy — I think there’s so much potential there,” she says.
Circle back to where O’Brien started: the protein reconciliation she thinks is coming.
Right now, protein claims are everywhere. Every food company is adding protein, highlighting protein, marketing protein. But O’Brien thinks consumers will eventually start asking harder questions: What kind of protein? How bioavailable is it? What else comes with it?
When that protein reconciliation arrives, when consumers move beyond the marketing to the science, O’Brien is betting dairy wins — not because of clever advertising or catchy campaigns but because of the work checkoff has funded over 25 years: the research validating dairy’s complete nutritional package, the partnerships embedding dairy in daily life, the discovery of compounds in milk that science is only beginning to understand.
“This incredible milk molecule,” as she calls it, contains answers to questions consumers haven’t yet learned to ask. And when they do? That’s when dairy’s time truly arrives — not as a moment but rather as a reconciliation between what protein promises and what dairy delivers.
