USDA Lowers 2023 All-Milk Price Forecast, Milk Production Estimates Remain the Same

For 2023, milk production projections were left unchanged from last month, ending at 228.4 billion lb.
For 2023, milk production projections were left unchanged from last month, ending at 228.4 billion lb.
(Farm Journal)

The saga of lower milk prices is forecasted to continue for dairy farmers as the USDA once again cut 2023 all-milk price projections in its July World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

For 2023, milk production projections were left unchanged from last month, ending at 228.4 billion lb. If realized, milk production for 2023 would be up 0.8% compared to last year. The 2024 milk production forecast was lowered by 200 million lb. to 230.6 billion lb. due to lower dairy cow inventories and slower growth in milk per cow.

Butter prices saw a bit of a boost for 2023, however, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices all took a negative hit. Skim-solids basis exports reflected lower exports of whey products as well as a number of other dairy products; however, these declines are partially offset by higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports. With the changes in product prices, the Class III price was cut 65 cents to $16.05 per hundredweight (cwt), while the Class IV price forecast was reduced 15 cents to $18.20 per cwt. The projected 2023 all-milk price was dropped 40 cents and now stands at $19.55 per cwt.

Milk price predictions for 2024 faired similarly to 2023. Class III forecasts dropped $1.05 down to $15.95 per cwt. while Class IV predictions were left unchanged at $17.45. The 2024 all-milk price was reduced by 55 cents and stands at $19.10 per cwt.

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