The Global Feed Commodity Crystal Ball
What lies ahead for the global corn and soybean picture? A lot of demand and commensurately high production increases, according to Adolfo Pontes, global business intelligence manager for Netherlands-based DSM Animal Nutrition.
Fontes told the audience of a recent International Egg Commission webinar that by 2031, an estimated additional 71 million tons of animal protein will be needed globally, thus boosting demand for livestock feed commodities – mostly corn and soybeans.
That anticipated demand comes on the heels of already booming growth. In the past decade, both grain and oilseed demand for livestock feed has grown by about one third, with corn and soybeans satisfying about 70% of the demand in their respective categories.
From 2011-21, the U.S. remained the largest corn producer in the world. But Argentina is the fastest-growing market, ramping up its corn production by about 150% in the last decade. As a whole, China is now the second-largest producer of corn, but still is a net importer despite the fact that it grows nearly a quarter of the world’s corn.
Looking ahead, Fontes predicted Africa will be the fastest-growing corn producer, with expectations that it will increase its corn production by 25% by 2031. He said that growth will likely stem mostly from greater yields versus more acres, as yields there are expected to increase by about 18%.
Soybeans have exploded in Brazil, where production nearly doubled from 2011-2021. In that decade, Brazil surpassed the U.S. to become the number-one soybean producer in the world, out-producing the U.S. by about 5 million tons.
China produces only about 5% of the world’s soybeans, but consumes more than 30% of the total global crop annually.
Latin America is expected to see significant soybean-production growth between now and 2031. Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina still will be the soybean-growing strongholds, though. They are expected to remain the top-three soybean-growing countries, and will contribute more than half of the additional 56 million tons of soybeans that are expected to be produced over the next decade.
]But Fontes tempered his enthusiasm with a warning that a multitude of factors could interrupt feed crop demand. They include inflation, geopolitical instability, the energy crisis, climate change, and COVID-19 flare-ups.
