Robin Schmahl

Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker and owner of AgDairy LLC, a full-service commodity brokerage firm located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. He can be reached at 877-256-3253 or through their Web site at www.agdairy.com.

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Cow numbers in October were higher than in the previous year. This is the first time cow numbers exceeded year-earlier levels since May 2023. Even though there is a tight heifer supply, more cows are being added to the nation’s herd.
Milk production has not been impacted as much as had been anticipated earlier this year. Other than seasonal buying this summer, there had been concern over the tight heifer supply and how that would limit milk production growth. The USDA released their baseline projection for the next ten years.
The utilization of beef-on-dairy to supplement farm income by boosting the value of calves has become an important aspect of the dairy operation. Livestock Risk Protection insurance can manage the price risk of your unborn calves.
There had been earlier concerns that milk supply would tighten with supply limited to bottling and manufacturing. Lower cow numbers and tight heifer supplies would further reduce milk availability. Much of that concern has dissipated.
Butter and cheese prices have fallen substantially since the highs were established. The supply outlook has changed with reports indicating there should be sufficient supply through the end of the year.
Seasonal demand is providing support to the market. This support may continue for a time as supply has tightened and demand is improving.
The past few weeks have shown us that the markets are becoming increasingly volatile. The months of September and October will see that volatility continue. Seasonal buying has increased fueled by the potential for tighter inventory.
Butter and cheese prices break out of the trading ranges to reach prices not seen in a while. Fall and holiday demand has kicked into gear as buyers look to Fall and holiday demand.
Milk prices have been increasing, but there is concern stronger prices may not hold through the end of the year.
Milk production continues to decline as summer weather takes its toll on cow comfort and feed intakes.
Milk prices have been better than expected and could remain that way for a while. Lower American cheese production and strong exports should provide further support.
Dairy cattle slaughter in May totaled 216,100 head, down 22,100 head from April and 33,000 lower than May 2023.
Both international demand for cheese and butter improved in April, moving exports significantly above a year ago. However, there may be no further DMC payments for the rest of the year. Here’s why.
Milk production in April was stronger than expected and may indicate output could exceed a year ago if the current pattern remains. Heightened volatility will persist as traders grapple with reality and perception.
Class III futures have made an impressive increase over the past month with the June contract increasing by over $4.00 per cwt. The last time we saw this movement in an actively traded contract was in the spring of 2020.