Milk production continues to decline as summer weather takes its toll on cow comfort. This is seasonal, varying from year to year depending on humidity and temperatures and the duration of those events. If hot weather events are short, milk production will bounce back. If those events are extended, production will be impacted, and cows will not regain the previous level of milk output impacting their lactation curve. Milk production per cow is generally affected during the summer months. Farms have made great strides in using technology and cooling systems to minimize the impact of hot weather.
Milk production continues to hold well despite the decline leaving sufficient milk available for demand. Milk production per cow in May was down 3 pounds from May 2023 totaling 2,105 pounds. This was an increase of 62 pounds per cow from April. There is generally a substantial increase in production per cow from April to May with a significant decrease through the summer months. A significant decline is expected in June due to some of the early hot weather experienced and the potential for a noticeable impact from the H5N1 virus. However, farms seem to be managing the spread of the virus with increased biosecurity and practices. It remains an issue that impacts farms, but it has not been a main topic in the news recently.
Looking back on last year, it is interesting to see the ranking of the top 10 states for milk production per cow. The state with the highest milk production per cow in 2023 was Michigan. Wyoming showed the second-highest milk production per cow with Colorado third, Texas fourth, and New York fifth. The other five states that make up the top 10 in production per cow are Wisconsin at sixth followed by Idaho at seventh, Nebraska at eighth, Iowa at ninth, and New Mexico at number ten.
Butter has been an interesting market to watch. The price has been in an overall uptrend since the beginning of the year. The price has recently stabilized, moving in a sideways range either building support or finding buyer resistance. It is unclear which direction it will move. Seasonally, the price increases as demand improves and buyers increase ownership for the end-of-the-year holiday demand. The market may have moved earlier this year in anticipation of demand and potential tighter butter supply. This may leave buyers less aggressive through the rest of the year. The butter price at the current level is the highest it has been throughout history for this time of year. This puts the market in an interesting position with the price the rest of the year difficult to predict. Early price strength could indicate price could move to another record high if domestic and international demand improves. However, an early increase may have been buyers willing to purchase ahead and pay the extra storage costs rather than risk a tight supply and soaring prices like the past two years. This will be the market to watch, as it will impact the Class IV prices directly and Class III prices to a lesser extent.
Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker with AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Robin’s office is located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. Robin may be reached at 877-256-3253 or through the website www.agdairy.com.
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