It seems as if the dairy industry has taken HPAI in stride. Price fluctuations have been the result of buyers of the physical commodity on the CME daily spot market doing normal business.
So far, HPAI has not had an impact on milk futures or the underlying cash prices. However, HPAI has not had an impact on milk futures or the underlying cash prices.
Cheese continued its descent on Monday as cheddar blocks fell 2.50 cents and barrels were down 2.75 cents. Class III values also reacted in a weaker tone.
The large decline in cow numbers and reduced milk production turned traders bullish, but that was short-lived. Will higher milk prices be delayed once again?
While the calendar flipped to 2024 weeks ago, there has been little change in dairy market sentiment since the beginning of this year. Globally, the industry continues to walk a tightrope of limited ‘new’ milk.
Recently, the USDA lowered its milk production forecast for 2024 due to lower expected output per cow, which is partly offset by higher cow inventories.
The hope is that depressed milk prices will be short lived. However, without a significant increase in demand or tighter milk supply or both, low prices may be with us for a longer duration.
Just how low will milk prices go? Slower exports, weaker demand and global inflation have all been an anchor on the potential for higher dairy product prices. Will we finally start to see some relief in 2024?
With sufficient supply and much of the holiday buying being finished, there is little reason for buyers to be aggressive. The usual slower demand period is just around the corner.
Dairy farmers have recently turned their focus to the higher cheese and butter prices seen in the market. At the same time, dry whey prices have also silently moved higher, supporting Class III milk prices.
While the all-milk price for 2023 and 2024 saw a nice boost, Class III milk price futures continue to stumble. Will Class IV be dairy's biggest bright spot?