Shifting Tides in the Dairy Market: A Closer Look at Butter and Cheese Prices

The CME spot butter market continues to steal the attention as prices dropped another few cents. Can this market break $2?

Butter
Butter

The CME spot butter market continues to steal the attention as prices dropped another few cents. Can this market break $2? The answer will likely come sooner than most expected. Although USDA’s July report showed tighter inventories, supply appears ample to start September. Reports suggest demand for bulk butter remains soft, certainly compared to normal for this time of year. That’s likely adding to the heavier supply feeling. Spot cheese prices dipped slightly today as well, which combined with weaker spot butter ultimately knocked nearby Class III and IV prices down by more than a dime.

The CME butter market continued to fall, down $0.0325 to a new year-to-date low of $2.0125 per pound. One lot changed hands. Spot blocks slipped slightly, down a penny to $1.7650 per pound, with 13 loads exchanged. Barrels, NDM and dry whey were unchanged with no trades.

Most commodities dropped at today’s GlobalDairyTrade event on the highest volume offered season-to-date. Milk powders led the way, with WMP down 5.6% to $1.73 per pound and SMP down 4.9% to $1.19. Butter slipped 2.4% to $3.16 per pound (adjusted to 82% butterfat). Cheddar logged the only increase, up 3.5% to $2.14 per pound.

As of Aug. 31, 69% of the U.S. corn crop was in good or excellent condition compared to 71% last week and 59% on the five-year average. The soybean crop was 65% good or excellent, down from 69% last week, but up from the five-year average of 59%.

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