Spot block prices moved to the highest price in two months. After accounting for NDPSR/CME basis, the futures market structure transitioned from a carry market to a discount market. After spending nearly two months in a carry structure, now that forward prices are at a discount, will more spot loads become available as carry buyers look to unwind product they previously carried against the forward curve? There are reports that domestic demand is improving, export strength is continuing, and seasonal milk flows are weakening. So, we may spend some time with an inverted curve.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- CME butter lost a bit more ground today, slipping to $2.3400 per pound, 1.5 cents lower. A healthy 14 lots changed hands, the biggest single-day total in almost two months. Spot blocks didn’t move much, up a penny to $1.8600 per pound, with five lots exchanged. While barrels added just a quarter cent, the price reached $1.8000 for the first time since June. There were no trades. CME NDM dipped to $1.2575 per pound, shedding $0.0075, with seven loads exchanged.
- Class IV contracts dropped, with September down 27 cents to $18.46 per hundredweight and Q4 at $18.66, a 13-cent loss. But Class III climbed through the end of 2025. September jumped to $18.87 per hundredweight, 25 cents higher, while Q4 advanced 12 cents to $18.43.
- As of August 10, 72% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition, according to USDA. That compares to 73% last week and 63% on the five-year average. USDA rated 68% of the soybean crop as good or excellent, down from 69% last week, but ahead of the five-year average of 63%.
Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
