CME markets remain relatively range-bound. Butter futures are trading a whopping 23¢ premium just a month out, signaling butter likely won’t break below the $2 mark. Cheese is still finding support at $1.65 and has a lot of sell-side interest at $1.85, with trade feeling choppy in between. School milk needs might help tighten up cream and spot milk supplies, but milk still feels like it’s long in most of the country.
CME cheese markets dropped today, with blocks slipping 3.5¢ to $1.73 per pound and barrels shedding $0.0375 to close at $1.7425. Four lots of blocks changed hands. Spot NDM declined to $1.2275 per pound, losing $0.0075, with six lots exchanged. Spot butter ticked up just a quarter cent to $2.015 per pound.
Milk was more available in the Midwest amid cooler temperatures and holiday downtime at cheese plants. USDA reported spot milk in the region at a midpoint of 25¢ per hundredweight under class. That compares to +$1.00 last week, +$1.75 in 2024 and -5¢ on the five-year average. Class II multiples in the Central region also declined, down to 127 compared to 130 last week, 131 last year and the five-year average of 136.
Globally competitive prices kept U.S. cheese and butter exports strong in July. Outbound cheese volume totaled 114.9 million pounds, up 29% year-over-year. Mexico purchased 38.9 million pounds, up just 1% versus 2024. Butter exports totaled 18.5 million pounds, up 206% on the year. But milk powder exports continued to lag prior-year levels at 131.9 million pounds, down 16% compared to July 2024.
