In its May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA raised its milk production forecast for 2024 based on an increase in dairy cows and more rapid growth in output per cow. Currently, the 2024 milk production estimate sits at 227.3 billion lbs., up 1 billion from last month and 900 lbs. higher than 2023’s total of 226.4 billion lbs.
The USDA also raised the milk production estimate for 2025 due to higher milk per cow predictions and an expanding herd. It forecasts production will total 229.3 billion lbs. next year, or 0.9% higher if realized.
With increases in the number of products, commercial exports are expected to grow on both a fat and skim-solids basis. Imports for fat and skim-solids are forecasted lower as domestic use is predicted to increase on a fat and skim-solids basis. Butter price forecasts for 2024 saw some slight forward movement, inching 1 cent higher to $2.935 per lb. Cheese also saw some positive movement with estimates now standing at $1.695, up 7.5 cents.
With higher cheese prices, the Class III price forecast was raised to $16.75 per cwt., up 55 cents from last month’s prediction. Class IV prices took a dip, falling 15 cents to $20.25 per cwt., yet it is still higher than 2023’s Class IV price of $19.12.
The all-milk price forecast for 2024 was raised to $21.20 per cwt., up 30 cents from April and 81 cents from 2023. The all-milk price prediction for 2025 sits at $20.90 per cwt.
For more on milk prices, read:
- Will We Continue to See Higher Milk Prices?
- EU Milk Collections Could be Stabilizing
- Dairy Profitability Remains Elusive, Regardless of Weaker Milk Supply
- Fewer Cows are Being Culled, Here’s the Main Reason Why
- Fewer Cows and Lower Protein Levels Have Done Little to Move Prices
