The Russian invasion of Ukraine and resultant, ongoing battle now is entering its eighth month.
While much of the world has grown disinterested and weary of the ongoing war, the situation remains dire for those on the ground in Ukraine. And because Ukraine once was referred to as the “breadbasket of the world,” the war’s impact on global food production and availability comes in both ripples and shockwaves.
The UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) hosted a recent webinar on which guest Roman Slaston of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club shared insights on how the war would impact Ukrainian agriculture for years to come.
Slaston said Ukraine currently is harvesting 25% less corn for the 2022 growing season. But oilseed crop yields in Ukraine-controlled territories actually have been higher than expected. As farmers look to putting in the 2023 crop, oilseeds like sunflowers, soybeans, and rapeseed are expected to be more profitable than corn, wheat, or barley, and plantings will be shifted accordingly. Winter wheat and barley planting levels are set to be 25-30% lower.
Fertilizer applications are expected to drop by 40% or more in 2023, due to both cost and supply issues. Farmers currently are sitting on large grain stores due to closure of Black Sea ports for most of the summer, plus intermittent rail service. The result is current grain prices below the cost of production.
Larisa Guk, president of the Union of Agrarian Journalists of Ukraine, recently told a forum hosted by the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists (IFAJ) that low wheat prices are especially troublesome right now. “The logistic costs are higher than the grain price,” she stated. “There is a danger that farmers will simply refuse to sow winter wheat this fall.”
Fellow Ukrainian agricultural journalist Iuri Mykhailov told the same IFAJ audience that Russians have looted Ukrainian farms, stealing agricultural machinery, spare parts, fuel, and grain. They reportedly also have killed millions of chickens and tens of thousands of cows and horses.
“The fulfillment of numerous business contracts has been breached, which has caused a domino effect throughout the global food supply chain,” stated Mykhailov.
At the same time, Russia has incurred heavy losses of both troops and military equipment. “If the war continues, Russia’s economy inevitably will collapse,” Mykhailov predicted.
The journalists noted that even after the conflict subsides, it will take years to rebuild the production sites and infrastructure necessary to return Ukraine to its previous world agricultural standard. Many agricultural fields are mined, and some may never return to crop production due to heavy shelling and missile fire.
“Nobody knows when the war will end,” declared Guk. “Nobody knows when the ports will be unlocked. No one knows what the price of wheat will be and how much the fertilizers will cost. Farmers just want to grow bread and feed people.”
