For years, dairy has been a go-to protein source for active, health-conscious consumers, but the rise of GLP-1 medications is shining a new light on the nutrient. Protein isn’t just for workouts anymore; more consumers are looking to it to manage hunger and support weight-loss goals, and that group is growing fast, according to Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights.
Why is GLP-1 Medication Use Increasing in 2026?
GLP-1 medications were originally developed to help manage Type 2 diabetes, with weight loss as a side effect. However, they are now also prescribed specifically for weight management, though adoption was limited because they had to be injected.
“Apparently 60% of consumers have some degree of needle phobia. That was preventing many from using one of these GLP-1 medications,” Plourd noted during the “2026 Dairy Market Outlook: Trends, Risks, and What Comes Next” webinar. “That’s about to change.”
At the end of 2025, FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication in pill form, making it easier for more people to use. Not only is it simpler to take, but it’s also more affordable, opening the door to a wider range of users.
“We’ve already seen some published reports saying that sales in the first couple of weeks are way ahead of where Zepbound was at this phase of its launch,” Plourd says. “These medications are getting cheaper, and it’s going to have, is having and will have a profound impact on the food industry, some for good and some for bad.”
How Do GLP-1 Drugs Change Grocery Spending and Calorie Intake?
According to Plourd, GLP-1 users consume roughly 20% to 30% fewer calories per day. This reduction in calories also reflects how consumers spend their money on food.
Cornell University data shows that within the first six months of being on a GLP-1 medication, grocery spending declines by about 5% and restaurant spending by roughly 8%. While those declines moderate in months seven through 12, they remain near 4% in both categories.
For dairy, this reduction in intake shifts the focus from volume to how dairy products fit into fewer eating occasions.
“Protein supplementation becomes a big deal when you’re eating fewer calories,” Plourd explains. “Those calories need to count more.”
When it comes to purchasing less, GLP‑1 users are not cutting evenly across the cart. Instead, they are tightening up most aggressively on indulgent, discretionary items. That means snacks, sweets and sugary beverages.
“When you look at the grocery store, they are spending 11% less on chips and savory snacks, 7% less on cheese and 6% to 7% less on soft drinks,” Plourd says. “Ice cream is also declining.”
This creates a split outcome for dairy. Products like cheese and ice cream can fall into the discretionary category, while protein-rich options such as cottage cheese, yogurt, milk and protein beverages align with what GLP-1 users are actively seeking as they prioritize nutrition per calorie.
Protein is the Big Winner
Despite overall food volume declining, certain dairy categories are growing.
Concentrated protein sources such as shakes, powders, cottage cheese and high-protein snacks are benefiting as consumers look for nutrient-dense foods. Plourd points to cottage cheese as an example.
“We brought cottage cheese back from the near death,” he says. “We’re back to levels not seen since 1985. Production is up 9% through November on a rolling 12-month basis.”
This has caused the market to shift in terms of production, with Associated Milk Producers Inc. recently announcing that it will convert one of its Wisconsin cheese plants into a premier cottage cheese facility, betting on the superfood renaissance to lead the industry’s high-protein future.
Ready-to-mix and ready-to-drink protein beverages are also expanding rapidly, with some segments seeing year-over-year growth above 15%.
“I think that this story has positive and negative implications for the dairy space,” Plourd adds. “The negatives would be, I think calorie-dense items like pizza, fast food and snacks maybe get roughed up a little bit, but protein is clearly a big winner.”
A Split Consumer, a Split Opportunity
GLP-1 adoption also shows a divide among U.S. consumers. Higher-income households are adopting more frequently, often pairing medications with gym memberships and protein supplements. For them, dairy is a familiar, convenient protein source that fits doctor guidance.
Middle- and lower-income households, juggling health care, student loans and grocery bills, may adopt less — or even if they do, they may not trade up into premium protein formats.
The result: Protein-forward, better-for-you dairy products are gaining momentum, while indulgent, calorie-dense categories may flatten or decline.
To stay ahead, dairy may need to double down on protein and reposition staples like cheese for the calorie-conscious set. With research showing that consumer spending often returns to pre-GLP-1 levels once medication stops, the industry has a unique window to capture long-term loyalty.
Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist with CoBank, thinks the industry is perfectly primed for this shift.
“The dairy industry is in a great position to help consumers meet their protein intake goals,” Geiger notes in a recent CoBank report. “Dairy products have a unique advantage because they contain all nine essential amino acids required in a human diet, making it a complete protein source. We expect more food and beverage manufacturers will take a cue from formulators that have already incorporated dairy-based ingredients into protein-centric product areas outside of the retail dairy case.”
That focus on nutrient density is shaping what comes next for the market.
A Look Ahead
GLP-1 medications have already reshaped the American plate, moving the focus from quantity to quality. In this more food-conscious world, indulgence is being cut while protein is prioritized.
For dairy, the challenge will be moving fast enough to capture the upside in protein while managing pressure on categories less favored by calorie-conscious consumers. But experts think that in this era of fewer calories and greater protein awareness, dairy is well positioned to step forward.
