A warmer-than-normal winter could give winter annuals like rye and triticale more time to grow before spring, potentially adding to feed inventories. But El Niño’s influence on snowfall and spring moisture could help or hinder how much forage those extra growing days produce.
John Baranick, a meteorologist with DTN, expects warmer conditions across much of the northern region, with less snow staying on the ground through winter. The combination could extend the growing window for winter annuals, while leaving some areas with less snowmelt to replenish soil moisture in spring.
A Longer Window for Winter Growth
Winter annuals could benefit from longer stretches of mild weather, particularly in areas where the ground does not freeze consistently.
“We could see longer stretches of warm weather, fewer frosty days and more time for roots and plants to grow,” Baranick says.
Brief blasts of Arctic air are still expected, but in warmer parts of the region, winter annuals may remain active longer into the season.
Additional time for growth could help build spring forage supplies. How much it contributes to feed inventories will depend on crop development and moisture conditions as the season progresses.
Less Snow Could Limit Spring Moisture
A longer growing window may offer an advantage, but less persistent snow cover could complicate the outlook.
“We’re not expecting as much snow to accumulate and stick around through winter. We’ll still see snowfall, but much of it likely won’t last into spring,” Baranick says.
Less snowpack could leave some areas with fewer moisture reserves heading into spring, particularly if winter and early spring precipitation fall short.
“That spring moisture is going to be very important, for getting moisture back into the soil,” Baranick says.
If moisture is limited, warmer temperatures alone may not translate into more forage. Timely precipitation will help determine whether winter annuals continue growing and how much biomass they produce before harvest.
El Niño Could Bring More Rain to the South
El Niño could bring more storms across the South in December and January, increasing the chance of precipitation in some areas, Baranick says.
Additional moisture could support winter annual growth, although rainfall patterns will vary by location. Wet conditions could also complicate spring fieldwork and harvest timing.
“There is going to be a lot of variability in the weather,” Baranick says.
Even with a warmer seasonal outlook, cold weather is still possible.
“Just because we’re saying warm doesn’t mean it’s not going to get cold,” he says.
Spring Weather Will Determine the Forage Outlook
As El Niño weakens, its influence on weather patterns is expected to become less consistent. Baranick says conditions could become more variable as spring approaches, with the potential for both dry stretches and periods of heavy precipitation.
“As El Nino starts waning, its influence starts waning, things get a lot more variable,” he says.
A longer period of growth could give winter annuals a head start on spring forage production, but the extent of that advantage remains uncertain. Snowfall, soil moisture and spring temperatures will influence crop development, while a milder winter could also allow some pests and diseases to overwinter more successfully, Baranick says.
El Niño may create favorable conditions for early growth, but spring weather will help determine whether that growth translates into additional forage for the season ahead.
