Lower milk prices seem to be the trend for 2023. And, unfortunately, it appears to be one farmers will continue to face going into 2024.
In its June World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE), the USDA again reduced its U.S. 2023 milk production estimate, but this time only slightly. Slower growth in milk-per-cow was the culprit of this month’s 200 million lb. cut in estimated production. Currently, the 2023 milk production forecast now stands at 228.4 billion lb. If realized, milk production for 2023 would be up 0.8% compared to last year.
Butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts were raised from the last month due to recent price strength and anticipated demand. Meanwhile, cheese and whey price forecasts were lowered. With the changes in product prices, the Class III price was cut $1.10 to $16.70 per cwt, while the Class IV price forecast jumped 5 cents to $18.35 per cwt. The projected 2023 all-milk price dropped 65 cents and now stands at $19.95 per cwt.
The 2024 milk production forecast remained unchanged, standing at 230.8 billion lbs. However, Class III and all-milk price forecasts saw prices drop. The 2024 Class III price forecast now stands at $17 per cwt., down 50 cents, while the Class IV price forecast is $17.45 per cwt., down 10 cents. Currently the 2024 all-milk price sits at $19.65 per cwt., down 25 cents from last month’s report.
