Spot cheese prices fought back to rise by a small margin today with another big volume day. Class III futures saw large trading volume as well, with July and August 2025 combining for over 2,000 contracts traded. Export buyers find interest at these lower levels as EU prices sit near $2.20 per pound. Looking ahead, seasonal declines in milk output should offer underlying support for futures in the coming weeks. Grain prices sank to new lows today for new-crop pricing, with soybean meal and corn falling through key support levels.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Ahead of today’s Cold Storage report, CME cheese markets reversed course, rising slightly after several days of price drops. Spot block ticked up 1.5 cents to $1.6100 per pound, while barrels rose to $1.6275, $0.0125 higher. Block volume remained heavy at 17 loads. Six lots of barrels changed hands. Spot butter slipped to $2.5200 per pound, losing 1.5 cents, with three loads exchanged.
- USDA’s May Cold Storage report was neutral for both cheese and butter, with stocks up seasonally on the month, though still below prior-year levels. Total cheese inventories reached 1.413 billion pounds, up 0.6% (+9.0 million pounds) month-over-month, but down 1.5% (-21.9 million pounds) versus 2024. Butter stocks totaled 361.6 million pounds, up 7.3% (+24.7 million pounds) compared to April, but down 4.8% (-18.2 million pounds) year-over-year.
- The recent decline in US cheese has widened the global price gap. The CME average for the week so far sits at $1.64 per pound, well below New Zealand’s $2.26 and Europe’s $2.41. The US butter average of $2.53 is also at a steep discount compared to $3.49 in New Zealand and $3.84 in Europe. Milk powder prices are all within a penny of each other, with CME NDM at $1.25 per pound, New Zealand at $1.26 and Europe at $1.27.
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