Editor’s Note: This is one article in a series that is included in the 2024 Farm Journal’s State of the Dairy Industry report. The full 16-page report will appear in the May/June issues of Dairy Herd Management and Milk Business Quarterly and will be published in this space over the next several weeks. To download the full report for free click here.
2024 started on a downward slope, as year-over-year milk production continued to drop 1.3% in February.
Following suit, the U.S. milking cowherd dropped below year-ago levels each month since June 2023. Meanwhile, milk and milk component production grew during the December through February time frame compared with the same period a year earlier.
Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insight, says it’s hard to imagine milk production making material improvements with cow numbers down year-over-year, heifers in short supply and rough economics in several regions.
Dan Basse, an economist with AgResource Company, doesn’t think heifer replacement numbers are going to change anytime soon, keeping cow numbers tight.
U.S. dairy exports posted a strong showing in February, although Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, said she will be excited when dairy exports get to 20%.
In 2023, U.S. dairy export value finished at $8.11 billion. That’s the second-largest value of all time but down 16% from the record year of 2022 as volume and prices eased.
Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) indemnity payments were a lifeline to many producers in 2023, while a decline in feed prices have been welcomed, especially as milk prices have been soft in 2024.
