For the past 13 years schools have been limited to only offering low fat options for milk served to students. The focus was shifted under the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act which was Michelle Obama’s push for better nutrition in schools under the premise that low fat milk limited the calories served to students in order to fight childhood obesity. Last week, President Trump sported his milk mustache in a social media post declaring “Drink Whole Milk” as he signed the new bill named Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act which passed through Congress last fall.
This change comes directly after the revamping of the food pyramid, with the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines which focuses on whole foods and healthy fats, a change from the previous pyramid that limited fat consumption in a normal healthy diet. Nutrition experts have argued that the fat consumption in milk has no adverse effect on children’s health as the total calories in the student’s diet is such a low percentage that the nutritional benefits outweigh the increase in calories.
This morning, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins released a statement piece about her experience as a child, growing up in a household with fresh whole milk always in the fridge and how shifting the views and opinions of the American consumer is long overdue. She believes that diet plays a key factor in chronic disease and the overwhelming percentages in childhood obesity and poor physical fitness. She attributes the absence of whole milk in schools to part of the problem as it has been an overlooked part of the correlation in children’s declining health.
What does this mean for dairy consumption and prices going forward? The question is whether or not we will see a demand shift in the near future, and experts believe it could be coming as soon as this fall. Shifting orders and adjustments to production take time, however, the harder measure to predict is how long it will take for demand to shift and how to adjust orders with what children will choose in the lunch line.
Secretary Rollins believes it will a win for the American farmer and rural America. Not only returning demand in the school lunch program but highlighting the need for healthy fats, the vitamin D and minerals available in milk, shifting the public view in the benefits of milk in the consumer’s eyes as a nutritious whole food option in a healthy diet.
How this will affect milk prices is still to be determined. We can go back to 2012 and look at the demand for milk in schools and adjust for the now 30 million students enrolled in the National School Lunch Program, but the math isn’t quite that simple. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, students consumed 288 million fewer half-pints of milk from 2012-2015 and 213 million fewer in 2014-2016. That number began to grow in 2017 as schools started to offer flavored low-fat options. In 2023, the Healthy School Milk Commitment limited sugars in a majority of milk options to no more than 10 grams of added sugars per 8 ounce serving.
Overall, throughout these policy changes to the school milk programs, Americans as a whole have rapidly pulled back on consumption of milk. According to Farm Bureau, milk consumption has fallen 28% since 2010. However, consumption has been falling since 1975, down 50% in the last 50 years. Therefore, demand is difficult to assess as a shift in government policy, and the consumer narrative has certainly had an impact in demand, but it is unlikely that per capita we will get back to 2010 demand anytime soon.
Futures prices have reflected a lot of the same opinion. While the decline in prices has somewhat stabilized since last week’s announcement, the market does not expect a substantial shift in demand anytime soon. Consumer opinion is not changed overnight and while school demand may shift more rapidly, it is more likely that it will be a shift over the next few years rather than more immediate.
Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net.
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