Strong beef prices have reshaped breeding strategies on many dairies, pushing more producers to use beef semen and capture the higher value of beef-on-dairy calves. But with fewer dairy pregnancies in the pipeline, some herds are now realizing they might have cut heifer inventories too deep.
During a recent episode of “The Dairy Podcast,” Michael Overton, global dairy platform lead in precision animal health with Zoetis, says the trend has been building for years.
“Dairy producers have been experiencing this really big boom in value for beef cross calves,” he explains. “Now, as a consequence of that, we’ve seen some producers become a bit overly aggressive with their breeding decisions, to the point where they’ve dug themselves in a little bit of a hole of not having enough heifers.”
When heifer numbers fall short, herds are left with two imperfect options: buy replacements or keep older cows longer to hold herd size steady. Both come with real costs. Purchased heifers are expensive and often lag behind home-raised genetics. Keeping older cows might feel like the easier path, but the losses tied to lower production, higher disease risk and reduced longevity add up faster than most producers expect.
The Hidden Cost of Holding Cows
On paper, holding cows longer can look like a smart workaround during a heifer shortage. Replacement costs appear to drop, and the cow still brings in milk revenue. But Overton cautions that once opportunity costs are included, the math flips.
For example, if a herd’s replacement rate drops from 38% to 34% because of low heifer inventories, the average market cow will stay in the herd 110 to 115 days longer. Older cows carry significantly higher risk, and when a cow dies late in lactation, the herd loses not only milk revenue but also the potential cull check, income many operations have come to depend on.
“A dead cow used to be painful,” adds Michigan State’s Barry Bradford, host of “The Dairy Podcast Show.” “Now it is financially devastating.”
High cull cow prices only complicate the decision. With Holstein cull cows selling at higher prices than they have in years, the check from the sale barn is tempting. But culling too aggressively without heifers ready to fill the gaps can leave the herd with costly production bottlenecks and an aging inventory.
Overton stresses that the true cost isn’t just the milk a cow produces today, it’s the milk a better, younger cow won’t produce if her stall is occupied by an animal past her economic prime.
“Just because you can sell a cow at a high price doesn’t mean you should if it leaves a hole in your herd,” he says.
Planning Ahead
Preventing a heifer shortage starts with setting clear, realistic targets.
“If your herd total number is not stable, that can be a big challenge,” Overton says.
He recommends looking back at the past two to four years to understand a herd’s true replacement rate, then raising enough heifers to cover normal turnover, plus a margin for unexpected losses or expansion. A major pitfall, he warns, is overestimating how many heifers actually make it to calving.
“The knee-jerk response is: ‘I got more than 90% of my heifers that calve in.’ And my response is, ‘No, I don’t believe it,‘” Overton says.
His data shows real heifer completion rates typically range from 75% to 80%. Failing to account for that 20% to 25% drop-off is one of the most common ways herds unintentionally dig themselves into a shortage. Once that hole forms, climbing out can take years of rebuilding.
Stay Ahead of Replacement Shortages
It’s easy to chase calf prices or cut costs, but not at the expense of creating a replacement shortage in your herd. Low heifer inventories hurt long before anyone notices, and the ripple effects reach every part of the operation.
The smartest herds stay ahead of the curve through disciplined, data-driven planning. Preventing the shortage is far easier, and far cheaper, than climbing out of it later.
