The weather phenomenon known as El Niño has arrived and is now intensifying after a four-year absence. According to Monica Ganley, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report and principal of Quarterra, an agricultural consulting firm in Buenos Aries, El Niño could have profound impacts on agricultural production, including dairy output, across the globe in coming months, at the same time food insecurity is increasing.
“While the effects of El Niño vary, the weather phenomenon will undeniably impact agricultural and dairy production over the first six months of 2023. Though in some cases, a specific set of weather conditions can boost production, generally, the disruptive conditions caused by El Niño will likely reduce production and put upward pressure on agricultural commodity prices, including dairy products,” Ganley said. “In today’s current geopolitical climate, the effects of El Niño could exacerbate the issues created by the war in Ukraine and unrest in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about food insecurity across the globe.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is likely to be the dominant weather phenomenon through the first half of next year, with a 75% to 85% chance it will be classified as a strong event. Unfortunately, El Niño has arrived amid a global food crisis in which more than 800 million people worldwide do not have enough to eat, and when Russia’s war of aggression continues to limit agricultural exports from Ukraine, a major supplier of food to the Middle East and Africa.
“Many agricultural producers are now preparing themselves for the weather shifts that would be consistent with an El Niño effect,” Ganley said. “In the northern tier of the United States, the next few months are expected to be relatively dry, and temperatures are forecast to be warmer than normal. Mild weather could help winter crops in northern states, but analysts caution that a lack of snow cover could also create adverse conditions. On the positive side, producers may be able to plant earlier this coming spring as warmer temperatures will likely lead to an earlier thaw.”
Meanwhile, El Niño tends to bolster the subtropical jet stream, which could bring stronger storms to the southern tier of the United States. In the past, years with a strong El Nino, such as 1982-83 and 1997-98, California and the Southwest have seen much wetter winters. Andrew Hoell, research meteorologist with NOAA’s Physical Science Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, told the Washington Post that “strong El Niño events increase the likelihood of above-average precipitation in the Southwest, and they do so to the tune of about 40, 50 or 60%.”
The effects of El Niño could be equally as disruptive in other parts of the world. Throughout Central America and the northwestern rim of South America, El Niño typically brings dry conditions, which is bad news for dairy producers in those areas who depend disproportionately on grazing their cattle, Ganley said.
“El Niño will also likely bring wet conditions to key dairy areas in the continent’s southern cone, including Argentina and Uruguay. However, after three continuous years of drought, producers could welcome some additional moisture,” she said.
European producers will also likely face wetter-than-normal winter conditions, although precipitation could dissipate in the first quarter of next year, while New Zealand will likely experience a warmer summer, with less rainfall predicted for the North Island and wetter-than normal conditions for the South Island.
“In Australia, dry conditions and scorching temperatures will likely increase the risk of bushfires across the country,” Ganley said, adding that multi-year droughts on the continent have already devastated the dairy industry there.
